1

The University of Electro-Communications Graduate School Second semester 2022

International Politics and Economy
3rd time
Causality (1) Two stages
2
 Scientific = modern view of language
 Postmodern view of language
 Two histories: empirical history and postmodern history
 Anthropology Overall understanding of human activities through observation by
researchers Last class
3
Q. Do scientific and postmodern views of language correspond to the so-called
quantitative-qualitative distinction?
A. Not for two reasons
(1) Even qualitative research can take a scientific view of language
ex. Empirical history
(2) Some argue that qualitative descriptions are actually quantitative
ex. "Crime is very serious in this country."
If the referents of ``this country'', ``crime'', ``very'', and ``serious'' are clear, they are the
same as binary (0/1) expressions.
4
Previous test answer example
1 About your research
・Safe remote control of robot arms that are resistant to cyber attacks
・Detection of lifestyle changes using lifelog data
・Fabrication of cold atomic clusters
・Optimal parameter settings for nuclear reactor safety systems
・Performance evaluation of biometric identification system
・Performance improvement of limb robot
2 Is your research scientific?
・ It is scientific because it can be judged with clear criteria according to the observed
results.
・Criteria for “safety” and “improvement” are subjective and unscientific
5
Correlation and causation
variable
A symbol that takes a value (x, y, height, weight...)
 Correlation
When the value of one variable changes,
that the value of another variable also changes
Positive correlation: one increases, the other increases
Negative correlation: one increases, the other decreases
 Causality
A cause and effect relationship between one variable and another
6
Correlation ≠ Causation
 Height and weight
Taller people will weigh more
A heavier person would be taller
If I gain weight, will I grow taller?
 Temperature and ice cream sales
 Tobacco and healthcare spending
A typical example of pseudo-correlation Both expenditures are correlated with income
[income – Spending, tobacco == medical care, Spending]
7
Three requirements for causality
 covariance
that the two variables are correlated
Time lag
Changes in causative variables (explanatory/independent variables) precede changes in
consequential variables (explained/dependent variables)
Control
Confirmation of changes in explanatory and dependent variables after removing the
influence of other variables
cf. ceteris paribus
8
Two steps to identify causality
descriptive inference
"What's going on?"
To describe an event in a probable (agreeable form)
causal inference
"What is the cause and what is the effect?"
Demonstrate plausible causal relationships based on descriptive reasoning
9
descriptive reasoning?
 Descriptive reasoning ≠ factual identification
Whether it is a natural phenomenon or a social phenomenon, there are times when we
ultimately do not know what the facts are.
ex. traffic accidents, atmospheric pressure, number of suicides
 Shareable Facts
If you cannot identify what the facts are, consider what many people accept to be facts
as facts and proceed to identify causal relationships.
10
Procedure for causal inference
 Question setting
ex. What kind of policies are necessary to extend healthy life expectancy?
→ dependent variable (y) Healthy life expectancy
Explanatory variable (x) Factors affecting healthy life expectancy
 Descriptive reasoning
ex. healthy life expectancy
= Period during which you can live without any restrictions on your daily life due to
health problems
Policy (Public burden of medical expenses, dietary guidance)
Personal attributes (age, occupation, annual income, gender...)
 Causal inference
Consider whether the target policy changes and other changes in healthy life expectancy
at certain times