1

Politics and Economy of the International Community 8th: Non-artificial random use (1)
2
last class
 Randomized experiments
Assignment of man-made interventions
 Survey experiment
Differences in answers due to differences in questions
Ex. Audience costs (Tomz 2007)
US response to fictitious country A attacking neighboring country
"Don't intervene" vs "I say I will intervene and I won't intervene"
 Field experiment
Randomly give information and observe the reaction of voters and politicians
Ex. Inquiries to legislators (Butler and Broockman 2011)
"white name" vs "black name"
3
last quiz
 Problem
What kind of survey/field experiments will you conduct? Be as specific as possible.
 Answer example
<Survey experiment>
・Comparing the evaluation of the government's countermeasures against the tax revenue shortage between "2%
consumption tax increase" and "2% consumption tax increase + coupon ticket"
・Comparing a man's evaluation of "I was saying bad things about you" and "I was praising you"
・Compared the support of person A, who said, "Money is the most important thing in life," by "showing A's
career" and "not showing A's career."
<Field experiment>
・Send a resume with the same background but a different name and see how the employer reacts
4
last quiz
 Answer example
In order to measure the effect of education, some classes have regular methods
Teach another class with a new method
 Points to consider:
Students will be the subject of the experiment, so if the method proves effective, it may be criticized regardless
of whether it is positive or negative.
* Examples of experimental methods in educational settings will be covered in the next class
5
natural experiment
 Non-artificial randomization
Take advantage of situations in which individuals or groups are assigned to groups with or without treatment by
"external forces" that are not human intervention.
 4 methods
1 natural experiment; (2) regression discontinuity design;
3 instrumental variable estimation; (4) difference-in-differences
6
Take advantage of situations where assignments occur naturally
Ex. Durante et al. 2019
Silvio Berlusconi - Italian businessman (architecture, media) and politician Forza Italia party leader 4 Prime
Ministers. Berlusconi-run media suspected of supporting his election. Self-selection biases of 'seeing his media'
and 'supporting him'
7
Examples of natural experiments Durante et al. 2019
 In Italy, radio waves for some broadcasts may not reach due to the effects of topography and placement of
repeaters.
→It's hard to imagine living in a place where radio waves from Berlusconi's media reach (or don't reach) just
because you want to see (or don't want to see) Berlusconi's media.
→ If you control the socio-economic situation and the characteristics of the region, whether or not to touch the
Berlusconi media is randomly assigned
8-9
See figure.

field experiment
 Give information randomly and observe behavior
 Mainly surveyed voters and politicians
 Analysis of actual behavior makes it easy to link to policy proposals
10
regression discontinuity design
 Establish a certain standard, and on the premise that the cases located around it are similar, verify the
difference in effect immediately before and after the standard
Ex. Meyerson 2014
Islam has a strong negative tendency toward women's education
Does Muslim Party Domination of Politics Hinder Women's Education?
Self-selection bias between ``Islamic political parties controlling politics'' and ``women's education being
hindered (strong belief in Islam)''
11
Examples of Discrete Regression Designs Meyerson 2014
 Turkey has an Islamic political party (the Welfare Party).
Cities can influence education policy
→Look at all the results of the 1994 mayoral election, and compare the ratio of high school graduates to the
female population in 2000 in cities where the Welfare Party candidate won or lost by a narrow margin.
= In cities where the political characteristics of the electorate are almost the same, the change of mayor due to
an accidental difference in votes (non-artificial allocation) is used
12-14
See figures
15
Examples of Discrete Regression Designs Meyerson 2014
 Cities with Islamic mayors outnumber those without
High school graduation rate for women is 1-3% higher
No difference in male high school graduation rates
 Interpretation of unexpected results
Promoting higher education for female students by pro-Islamic political parties
ex. Non-enforcement of scarf prohibition
= Banned since 1980 as part of the separation of church and state, but this caused a situation in which Muslim
women gave up on going on to higher education.
Pro-Islamic Party Does Not Enforce Ban, Encouraging Women to Go to Schools
Expansion of educational facilities in cooperation with conservative Islamic groups
cf. external validity (whether this applies to other cases as well)