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Desperate times

AGAINST advice and defying all political logic, PTI chairman Imran Khan has pulled
the trigger by announcing that the KP and Punjab assemblies will be dissolved on Dec
23. He made the announcement to his party’s supporters, who had gathered for a jalsa
at Lahore’s Liberty Chowk on Saturday night, via a televised address that was also
broadcast nationwide. The chief ministers of Punjab and KP were by his side as he
made his speech, ostensibly to put to rest speculation that they may be having any
other thoughts about the decision. Not only will both assemblies be dissolved this
coming Friday, PTI MNAs have also been directed to collectively approach the Speaker
of the National Assembly in the interim and ensure that their resignations from the
Lower House — pending since April — are verified without further ado. The country
can, therefore, expect yet another round of feverish uncertainty, scheming and
speculation before this turbulent year finally draws to a close.

Due to the risks involved, few believed that Mr Khan’s threat last month would materialise.
Dissolving the two assemblies would mean the PTI and PML-Q will lose all access to state machinery
during an election year. Perhaps aware of what he may be putting at stake, Mr Khan has described
the move as a “sacrifice” his party is making for the country’s future. Yet, despite his assurances that
he will be going ahead with what he promised, doubts continue to linger. For example, it is being
asked why the former prime minister put off the dissolution of the assemblies for six days later, when
he could have done it immediately. Will it not give his opponents time to regroup and either block or
delay his move through the legal means at their disposal? Or could it be that he wants to leave a
window open for talks? Are backdoor negotiations still being conducted somewhere away from the
public eye?

If, however, Mr Khan remains true to his word, and the opposition, for whatever reason, fails to
block his move, the country will plunge headfirst into its most serious political crisis since last April.
Collectively, about two-thirds of all seats normally contested in a general election will fall vacant as a
result of the PTI quitting the assemblies, putting immense pressure on the ECP as well as the federal
government. All of these seats will need to be filled within a 90-day period through by-elections.
With the economy already in dire straits and the PDM government demonstrating an inability to take
decisive measures due to the prevailing uncertainty on the political front, this will greatly worsen the

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situation and the country will suffer. Mr Khan should have continued to fight for an early election
through dialogue and negotiation rather than to upend the chessboard and expect the government to
accept defeat.

Published in Dawn, December 18th, 2022

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Deteriorating ties

THE Pakistan-India bilateral relationship has never been a normal one, experiencing
cycles of intense rivalry and even all-out war, alternating with cold peace and efforts to
mend fences. The current phase is a decidedly negative one, with relations having
dipped considerably after India’s controversial annulment of held Kashmir’s
autonomy in 2019.

However, over the past few months there have been a number of unpleasant exchanges involving top
officials of both countries. In October, the Indian defence minister issued a provocative statement
threatening to ‘retake’ Gilgit-Baltistan, while the next month, a senior Indian general made a
similarly hostile remark, threatening to ‘retake’ Azad Kashmir.

The situation over the past few days has deteriorated considerably, with Interior Minister Rana
Sanaullah saying earlier this week that India was involved in acts of terrorism on Pakistani soil, and
pointing to New Delhi’s alleged involvement in last year’s Johar Town blast in Lahore. This was
followed a day later by Minister of State Hina Rabbani Khar telling a presser that “no country has
used terrorism better than India”.

Then, at a UN media stakeout in the US, a particularly tense indirect exchange was witnessed
between Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari and his Indian counterpart. The Indian minister
had termed Pakistan the “epicentre of terrorism”, while accusing Pakistan of having sheltered Osama
bin Laden. Mr Bhutto-Zardari responded firmly, pointing out that the “butcher of Gujarat” was now
the Indian prime minister, and that India’s top offices were occupied by RSS men. In the aftermath
of this incident, there have been further recriminations between both governments, while a BJP mob
attempted to storm the Pakistan high commission in Delhi on Friday.

Similarly, New Delhi must be made aware that its involvement in fanning unrest and terrorism
within Pakistan is unacceptable and will be exposed internationally. However, with these red lines
set, it is in the interest of both to work towards peace, instead of beating the drums of war.

Pakistan’s repeated offer of engagement has been turned down by the far right dispensation ruling
India. The peace process is unlikely to be resumed anytime soon, but at least both sides should dial
down the rhetoric to prevent further escalation.

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Oil politics

VASTLY divergent views about the possibility of buying Russian petrochemicals from
Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari and Minister of State for Petroleum Musadik
Malik has added to the confusion prevailing over the issue. This is perhaps another
reflection of the dissonance that afflicts the PDM government. While speaking to
American public broadcaster PBS, the foreign minister said that Pakistan is “not
pursuing or receiving” Russian oil, while adding that energy from Moscow “will take a
long time to develop”. However, Mr Bhutto-Zardari’s statement had raised eyebrows
as Mr Malik had only recently returned from Moscow, with the promise that Russian
hydrocarbons bound for Pakistan were in the pipeline. In an apparent attempt at
damage control, Mr Malik told the media on Friday that his cabinet colleague’s stance
was based on ‘confusion’, and that the Russian energy minister was due in Islamabad
next month to seal the deal for discounted energy supplies, going as far as to say that
Russian hydrocarbons would be flowing within four to five months. Moreover, while
some have observed that Pakistani refineries are unable to process Russian crude
varieties, Mr Malik said we very much have the capacity to refine Moscow’s
petrochemicals.

The government needs to explain which position is correct: that of the foreign minister or the
petroleum minister? Once this issue is settled, there is the equally important question of the
practicality of importing Russian crude. The G7 grouping has implemented a price cap of $60 per
barrel for Russian crude, though Mr Malik says we will be able to purchase Moscow’s petrochemicals
at deep discounts. Finance Minister Ishaq Dar has also said the US “cannot stop” Pakistan from
purchasing Russian oil. Considering the geopolitics involved, buying Russian oil will not be easy.
However, if Pakistan is assured of steady supplies at attractive rates by Moscow, and the US and its
Western allies confirm that we will not face punitive actions for buying Russian oil, then Pakistan
should pursue the option without delay.

Published in Dawn, December 18th, 2022

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Peace between neighbours

The writer is a security analyst.

PAKISTAN has formally shared with the UN secretary general a dossier enclosing the
details and evidence of Indian involvement in the deadly Johar Town blast in Lahore in
2021, among other incidents of terrorism. After the UN Security Council adopted a
statement warning of the increasing dangers of militancy, envoys from India and
Pakistan traded heated accusations of terrorism against each other. The dossier
shared on the eve of the UN Security Council (UNSC) meeting under India’s presidency
adopted a presidential statement on countering terrorism.

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Needless to say, India will leave no stone unturned to malign Pakistan through accusations of
terrorism. When India was elected as the non-permanent member of the UNSC, Pakistan foresaw
such a tactical move, but when India took over the Council’s presidency in December, Islamabad was
on alert. Though the UNSC statement underscored the obligation of nations to curb terrorism, after
the meeting, the Indian external affairs minister made allegations of terrorism against Pakistan.

Many observers believe Pakistan has highlighted the Indian role in terrorism as a counter-strategy.
The terror incident, which was specifically referred to in the dossier, took place in June 2021 in
Lahore near the residence of Hafiz Saeed, the head of the banned Jamaatud Dawa (JuD). He was
kept under house arrest there after being awarded a life sentence in a terror-financing case by a local
court. Pakistan’s security agencies resolved the case within months, and claimed that execution of the
terrorist attack had, undeniably, India’s fingerprints all over it. It is understandable that Pakistan has
the right to choose the time to launch the dossier as per diplomatic and geopolitical needs. However,
observers are not ruling out the factor of change in the military leadership here, which may signal
geopolitical priorities in the coming months and years.

Just a few days after taking charge as army chief, Gen Asim Munir visited the Rakhchikri sector of
the Line of Control (LoC). While addressing the troops, he vowed that Pakistan’s armed forces would
“not only defend every inch of our motherland but take the fight back to the enemy”. The army chief
was referring to the statements of Indian ministers on the status of the Gilgit-Baltistan region.
However, many Pakistani and Indian commentators conceived his statement in the context of the
ongoing political crisis inside Pakistan and the debate on military involvement in the country’s
political affairs. Just before his retirement, former army chief Gen Bajwa had acknowledged that
decades of interference by the security institutions in domestic politics had exposed them to public
criticism.

Despite New Delhi’s arrogance, Pakistan

should continue offering peace to India.

On the list of internal security threats, the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Islamic State-Khorasan
and Baloch insurgents are at the top. A well-calibrated approach to address the issue is needed;
experts writing on these pages have made suggestions. A similar discourse is required on

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conventional threats, as most threats are interlinked and shape the geopolitical landscape of the
country.

India’s major diplomatic tool against Pakistan has been to keep on talking about ‘terrorism’. It has
used it more effectively at international forums, but now, using this tactic is becoming difficult for
New Delhi, thanks to Pakistan’s campaign against terrorism and initiatives in compliance with FATF-
related regulations. These measures have improved the country’s image, and now the task is to keep
up the momentum of success. Dealing with the TTP is a domestic affair, and the international
community, including Pakistan’s allies in the East and West, will appreciate a coercive approach to
tackle the challenge. However, banned organisations like the JuD and Jaish-e-Mohammad still have
the potential to erode the country’s successes. Both organisations are dormant at the moment, and
many of their leaders have been sentenced by the courts. If they resurface again, even in a politically
transformed form, it would allow India another opportunity to malign the country.

Nevertheless, there is a strong probability that had the June 2021 terrorist attack succeeded in
eliminating its target, India unofficially would have taken the credit, like the US Marines who killed
Osama bin Laden on Pakistani soil.

The diplomatic challenges can be dealt with effectively if Pakistan’s muscles remain strong and the
country can execute the ‘quid pro quo plus’ strategy that the army chief referred to in his LoC
address. Nonetheless, in case of any conflict, the escalation ladder should remain the last option; this
can come through the internal strength of a strong economy and full public support. It may require a
doctrinal shift though. Experts often suggest peace with all neighbours and economic engagement to
transform the conventional threat doctrine, making it important to talk to neighbours on all disputes.

The previous military leadership had much to say about a geo-economics shift, but practically it did
not tap its full potential because of the challenging situation in Afghanistan and tensions with India.
The low-intensity conflict on the LoC and Indian intrusion in Pakistani airspace and an effective
Pakistani response kept the attention on geo-economics transformation. Though Pakistan has taken
several measures to reduce tensions, including opening the Kartarpur Corridor for Sikh pilgrimages,
India has not reciprocated. Despite all the arrogance of the Indian leadership, Pakistan should
continue offering peace to India.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s recent statement about revitalising Saarc was a positive move. It
probably also reflected the new military leadership’s priorities, which, despite all the hurdles and

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negativity around security institutions, does not appear to be averse to a resumption of talks with
India.

The writer is a security analyst.

Published in Dawn, December 18th, 2022

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Rubbish priorities

The writer is a former editor of Dawn.

PAKISTAN’s envoy to Kabul has survived an assassination attempt; the western border
is heating up over the fence built to stop terror incursions in erstwhile Fata, incurring
the Taliban’s wrath; and the Chaman-Spin Boldak border crossing has seen bloody
firefights with several casualties.

If it weren’t for the valour and professional training of the SSG bodyguard who covered the envoy’s
body with his own, taking the bullets meant for him, and, despite being injured, dragging the latter to
safety, the incident could have compounded the challenges in relations between the two countries.

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This is a snapshot, admittedly, showing just a tiny part of the complex minefield that Pakistani
foreign policy and national security defence experts have to negotiate every day in order to maintain
a modicum of normality with the obscurantist Afghan Taliban regime next door.

Having deluded ourselves that our out-and-out support to the Afghan Taliban would make them see
us as valuable allies in the longer term, particularly following the eventual withdrawal of US-led
forces based in the country since after 9/11, a new reality is now dawning on us.

Divisions and fissures are making any

healing or rebuilding almost impossible.

DawnNews TV’s then Peshawar bureau chief Zahid Shah Shirazi had done the interview and shot
some dramatic footage of the TTP ameer in a US military Humvee driving around freely in the
company of dozens of heavily armed gunmen in, if I recall correctly, the Khyber Agency.

Hakimullah was categorical in challenging the view that the secular, left-leaning Pakhtun political
parties represented ‘true’ Pakhtun ‘nationalism’. He said the TTP would demonstrate that they were
the true nationalists in obliterating the Durand Line, which divided a ‘Pakhtun nation’ united by faith
and ideology. It seems no planner paid any attention to such pronouncements, or if they did, did not
take them seriously.

Now the Afghan Taliban, our long-term allies, many of whose significant leaders and foot soldiers
were provided sanctuary by Pakistan in the face of the US-led onslaught, seem to be saying that the
TTP are their ideological brothers, a fence dividing the Pakhtuns is unacceptable, and that if Pakistan
desires peace with the TTP it should negotiate directly with them, as Kabul can offer little help.

In a few sentences, this is the state of play on our western borders. Given the harsh exchange of
invective between the Pakistan and Indian foreign ministers, triggered by the latter, it is apparent
that while there may not be a clear and present danger of any outbreak of hostilities on the eastern
frontier, there is no bonhomie between the two sides in sight either.

Our ties with our third main neighbour, Iran, remain fraught with stresses at best, given Islamabad’s
relations with Riyadh and its dependence on the latter for constant financial bailouts disbursed

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directly or in the form of huge remittances that Pakistani workers send from Saudi Arabia.

This is the reality of our regional security challenges, some of which border on existential threats.
Pakistan’s economy is in dire straits, with massive floods exacerbating the miseries of the people,
even in the unlikely event where they may have been left untouched by the brutal inflationary
pressures exerted by higher global energy and food prices.

Political instability and petty point-scoring by politicians in pursuit of power — by any means and at
any cost to the country — makes for an environment where it may be well-nigh impossible to take
any painful decisions to reform the economy, no matter how crucial it may be for the long-term
health and sustainability of the system.

The former army chief did acknowledge the grave damage political engineering undertaken during
his tenure(s) in office caused to the country, and how it has left fissures and divisions which may take
a long time to heal. But the problem is that these very divisions are making any healing or rebuilding
at this time almost impossible.

An eternal optimist as I see myself, it pains me to become a prophet of doom and gloom. Ergo, I
refuse to. What I will say is that anyone with even a modicum of love left for our blighted land needs
to prioritise the collective interest above the interest of our own grouping. That is the only way
forward.

This includes the politicians, the military and the judiciary, to name the big three (and not
necessarily in that order), whose wayward thinking and deviations from their constitutionally laid-
out role have wreaked havoc on the country.

I can just about identify some of the challenges and, honestly speaking, don’t have what it takes to
list the solutions. For that, heavyweight intellect would be required that I could only have in my
dreams. From my humble perspective, I can say a few things about where a lot of energy is being
misspent and misdirected.

Ali Wazir is one. The Islamic Republic has spent a fortune keeping him in incarcerated for months on
end. The MNA from Waziristan lost 17, yes 17, members of his immediate family to Taliban terrorists,
and if he does not agree with the officially held wisdom on how best TTP terrorism is handled, he is
as entitled to his views as anybody else.

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Does he really threaten national security? No. At best, some fragile egos. Similarly, I am told the foul-
mouthed multimillionaire Azam Swati is being flown on special flights for various court appearances
across the length and breadth of the country. Pointless expense, you’d agree.

Their words can do no damage to Pakistan as their poorly prioritised persecution is doing. Perhaps
the courts will take novel initiative and provide relief. The focus needs to be on the real challenges,
and not the sources of insults, or worse still, perceived insults.

The writer is a former editor of Dawn.

abbas.nasir@hotmail.com

Published in Dawn, December 18th, 2022

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America’s wars

The writer, a former ambassador, is adjunct professor Georgetown University and Visiting Senior Research Fellow

AS a long-time senator, President Joe Biden is a rare witness to a whole new era in US
foreign policy in which America did not win a single war started by itself, ranging from
Vietnam to the Afghanistan conflict. He realised the futility of wars to settle issues that
cannot be resolved by force, especially in lands whose history and culture are beyond
America’s understanding. No wonder as president he opposes “forever wars”.

But are these “forever wars” gone forever? Let us look at history and the trends. Biden’s foreign
policy is a complex mix of elitist passion for great power rivalry, the traditionalist’s commitment to
alliances, and the populist’s belief that foreign policy must serve the interests of America’s working

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and middle classes. His policy thus aims at rebuilding strength at home and competition with China
abroad, the latter shaped by America’s fear of losing its leading great power status to Beijing.

Biden began with a maximum pressure campaign against China by threatening to decouple the
economy, ratcheting up tensions over Taiwan, and raising the geopolitical stakes by lining up allies
against Beijing. But he succeeded only partially. Understandably, both China and the US have
climbed down. Imagine a war over Taiwan, a major producer of semi-conductors, and its
implications for the global economy. In their recent summit, Biden and President Xi Jinping
emphasised the need to engage and compete but manage their strategic competition responsibly.

But with Europe impacted by the Ukraine war and facing economic challenges that make
engagement with China a critical necessity, Washington’s gains have been mixed. Nato was
strengthened but so was Europe’s urge for a balanced China policy that was not an adjunct to
America’s great power rivalry with China.

It’s almost as if an American war is

righteous by definition.

But the trouble with the American system is that one never knows what the next election and the
politics of the day might bring to US foreign policy. The war itch could return. Since it became a
superpower, the US has been getting into wars and exiting impulsively, creating consequences for
itself and its partners. The wars were incited by an overweening pride in its military power and
prompted by domestic political interest groups, as explained in Jack Snyder’s book Myths of Empire:
Domestic Politics and International Ambition.

Given Americans’ own historical experience, going to war comes naturally to them. They do not look
at the wisdom or morality of wars. It is almost as if an American war is righteous by definition. That
is why, when they start losing, the debate is rarely about the war having been a bad idea. It is always
about cutting losses and getting out. So, in the end, Americans never quite know why they really went
to war and why they really exited. This is a perfect recipe for continuing to get into and out of future
wars.

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For a nation whose founding principle was religious liberty, war was nearly always defined as a
divine mission, a struggle between good and evil, indeed a moral conflict. Though sometimes a force
for good, it often disguised imperialist aims.

In recent history, America’s sense of ‘exceptionalism’ merged with post-Cold War geopolitics,
aggravating its traditional militarism. Driven by a supreme consciousness of power and the hubris of
the unipolar moment, and then scarred by 9/11, America simplified and distorted the emerging
global challenges and resorted to unilateralism. The result was failed wars in Afghanistan and the
Middle East.

What can prevent future American wars? Hopefully, the realisation that US power is not absolute.
America has walked alone on many issues. Its wars got entangled with bad partners, regional
rivalries and bilateral conflicts, besides unleashing new forces of instability. They also hurt America’s
image and credibility.

Other guardrails against war have also appeared at home and abroad. There is domestic opposition
to wars. Besides, you cannot have war without European cooperation, which may not be taken for
granted in the future. Europe is engaged in strategic diversification, and allies like Saudi Arabia and
India have become polygamous in their relations with big powers. Look at the recent China-Arab
summit. National priorities globally are now geo-economics, founded in geopolitics.

For Pakistan, friendly ties with the US are necessary but partnership in war is optional. Pakistan
should never become America’s war partner again. Washington’s war aims will always be different
from Pakistan’s. As in the past, the cost will outweigh the benefits.

The writer, a former ambassador, is adjunct professor Georgetown University and Visiting Senior
Research Fellow National University of Singapore.

Published in Dawn, December 18th, 2022

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Popularity pandemic

The writer is a former civil servant.

SOCIAL media has changed life so much. Indian actor Shahrukh Khan once claimed he
is the last of the superstars. He might be correct, because now everyone is a star unto
himself. No matter how you earn your bread and butter, social media has allowed
everyone to become a little celebrity with a fan following. This is great when it
encourages people to go the extra mile in their profession, and might be acceptable if
they are doing their job and expecting popularity as a side hustle. But it becomes
highly problematic when social media starts to dictate your activities and thought
processes.

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This has been observed by the Indian election commission, as well as the Supreme Court of Pakistan
recently. Ahead of the Gujarat election in December, the commission removed Abhishek Singh, an
Indian Administrative Service officer, for displaying his posting and the ‘privileges’ that came with it
on Instagram. He had been made general observer for two constituencies in Ahmedabad and showed
off pictures of an official vehicle and security personnel on his social media accounts. The election
commission promptly removed him from the assignment.

The officer was ordered to report to his parent cadre. Media reported that “all government facilities
provided to him in Gujarat were also taken away, including the car featured in his posts”. This might
seem excessive to social media-savvy civil servants, but there is a certain level of maturity required to
oversee the election process as an observer. An officer who is preoccupied with flaunting his official
car and gunmen provided for security is unlikely to lie low and observe in letter and spirit the
election process being followed.

Here in Pakistan, Justice Qazi Faez Isa has made similar observations in a recent judgement of the
Supreme Court, stating that, “If someone names a public/government place or property after
themselves or affixes their own name or image on a public/government document, it is self-
glorification, and if this is done by others, it would constitute obedience, flattery, nepotism and/or
corruption. It is also not permissible to manoeuvre self-projection through one’s subordinates,
political associates or in a manner that may call for the bestowal of reciprocal favours. Paid servants
of the state, constitutional office-holders and politicians in government must not use their positions
for personal, partisan or pecuniary gain.”

Many civil servants use social media for self-

projection.

Sadly, our civil servants might not have the material evidence, the training, the maturity, and most
importantly, the guts to recognise that while their success might lie in the happiness of the political
lords, their true value lies in upholding the spirit of their oath and the Constitution. In this modern
era, battles for truth will not be fought in the battlefields, but in air-conditioned offices and with a
stroke of a pen. This judgement provides enough reason to public servants to think beyond their own
personal projection and focus on professionalism.

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The laptops doled out in CM or PM laptop schemes have imagery glorifying the givers as the ultimate
generous beings, when in reality all the money comes from the public exchequer. Similarly, the Sehat
Insaaf card bears the colours of the flag of a political party, which amounts to free advertising at the
cost of public money.

A cursory gl­­a­nce at so­­ci­­al media spa­ces like Twit­t­er or Facebook reveals that many civil servants use
their accounts for self-projection, where a photographer is deputed to cover how, for example, the AC
Sahib has gone about his day conducting official activities. Apart from other ills, this penchant for
some extra likes on social media often results in civil servants poking their nose in matters that are
not even remotely in their domain. Such behaviour also begets sycophancy, because once the public
servant shows he loves being projected as some sort of messiah, vested interests take this route to get
in the good books of the public official and manipulate his decision-making. The training of modern
civil servants needs to inculcate guidelines on the use of social media as a tool of communication and
projection of the institution rather than your own self.

Lastly, Margaret Thatcher once said: “Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people
you are, you aren’t.” I guess the same is the case with good public servants: if you have to tell people
that you are, you aren’t.

The writer is a former civil servant.

syedsaadatwrites@gmail.com

Twitter: @SyedSaadat55

Published in Dawn, December 18th, 2022

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