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IPCC Sixth Assessment Report

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Six IPCC Assessment Reports have been published so far- the sixth report (AR6) coming in
three parts — the first in August 2021, the second in February 2022, and the third in April
2022. The document deals with the third part of the sixth assessment report, released in
May this year.

1. Introduction- What is IPCC and its Assessment Reports?

 The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) is the United Nations body
for assessing the science related to climate change. The IPCC was set up in 1988 by
the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the UN Environment
Programme (UNEP). Its main activity is to prepare Assessment Reports, special
reports, and methodology reports assessing the state of knowledge of climate change.
 However, the IPCC does not itself engage in scientific research. Instead, it asks
scientists from around the world to go through all the relevant scientific literature
related to climate change and draw up the logical conclusions.
 The IPCC‘s Assessment Reports (ARs), which are produced every few years, are the
most comprehensive and widely accepted scientific evaluations of the state of the
Earth‘s climate. They form the basis for government policies to tackle climate change,
and provide the scientific foundation for the international climate change negotiations.
 Six Assessment Reports have been published so far, the sixth report (AR6) coming in
three parts — the first in August 2021, the second in February 2022, and the third in
April 2022. The three reports have been prepared by three Working Groups (WG).
 The WG1 report was titled, ‗Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. The
WG2 report was titled, ‗Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability‘. The WG 3 report has been titled, ‗Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of
Climate Change. After this, The Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment Report
(AR6) will be released in late 2022 or early 2023 which will provide an overview of
the state of knowledge on the science of climate change, emphasizing new results
since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014.
 The first part of AR6 flagged more intense and frequent heat-waves, increased
incidents of extreme rainfall, a dangerous rise in sea-levels, prolonged droughts, and
melting glaciers — and said that 1.5 degrees Celsius warming was much closer than
was thought earlier, and also inevitable.
 The second part warned that multiple climate change-induced disasters were likely in
the next two decades even if strong action was taken to reduce the emissions of
greenhouse gases.

2. The Previous Five Assessment Reports

 First Assessment Report (1990)-The First Assessment Report noted that
emissions resulting from human activities are substantially increasing the atmospheric
concentrations of greenhouse gases. Global temperatures have risen by 0.3 to 0.6
degree Celsius in the last 100 years. In the business-as-usual scenario, temperatures
were likely to increase by 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels by
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2025, and 4 degrees Celsius by 2100. Sea levels were likely to rise by 65 cm by 2100.

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This report formed the basis for the negotiation of the UN Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992, known as the Rio Summit.
 Second Assessment Report (1995)- The Second Assessment Report revised the
projected rise in global temperatures to 3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels
by 2100, and sea-level rise to 50 cm, in light of more evidence. Global rise in
temperature by 0.3 to 0.6 degree Celsius since the late 19th century was ―unlikely to
be entirely natural in origin‖. AR2 was the scientific underpinning for the Kyoto
Protocol of 1997.
 Third Assessment Report (2001)- The third assessment report revised the
projected rise in global temperatures to 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius by 2100 compared
to 1990. The projected rate of warming was unprecedented in the last 10,000 years,
it said. The report predicted increased rainfall on average, and that by 2100, sea levels
were likely to rise by as much as 80 cm from 1990 levels.
 Fourth Assessment Report (2007)- The fourth Assessment Report said
greenhouse gas emissions
increased by 70 per cent
between 1970 and 2004, and
atmospheric concentrations of
CO2 in 2005 (379 ppm) were
the most in 650,000 years. In
the worst-case scenario,
global temperatures could rise
4.5 degrees Celsius by 2100
from pre-industrial levels, and
sea levels could be 60 cm
higher than 1990 levels.
The report won the 2007
Nobel Peace Prize for IPCC. It
was the scientific input for the
2009 Copenhagen climate
meeting.
 Fifth Assessment Report
(2014) - The fifth Assessment
Report (2014) said more than
half the temperature rise since
1950 was attributable to
human activities, and that the
atmospheric concentrations of
carbon dioxide, methane, and
nitrous oxide were
―unprecedented‖ in the last
800,000 years. The rise in
global temperatures by 2100
could be as high as 4.8
degrees Celsius from pre-industrial times, and more frequent and longer heat waves
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were ―virtually certain‖. A ―large fraction of species‖ faced extinction, and food

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security would be undermined, it said. AR5 formed the scientific basis for negotiations
of the Paris Agreement in 2015.

3. Key Issues identified in the third part of Assessment Report 6

 In 2019, global net anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions were at 59
gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e), 54 per cent higher than in 1990.
Net emissions refer to emissions accounted for after deducting emissions soaked up
by the world‘s forests and oceans. Anthropogenic emissions refer to emissions that
originate from human-driven activities like the burning of coal for energy or cutting of
forests. But the average annual rate of growth slowed to 1.3 per cent per year in the
period 2010-19, compared to 2.1 per cent per year in the period 2000-09. At least 18
countries have reduced GHG emissions for longer than 10 years on a continuous
basis due to decarbonisation of their energy system, energy efficiency measures and
reduced energy demand.
 Least Developed Countries (LDCs) emitting only 3.3 per cent of global emissions in
2019. Their average per capita emissions in the period 1990-2019 were only 1.7
tonnes CO2e, compared to the global average of 6.9 tCO2e. LDCs contributed less
than 0.4 per cent of total historical CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry in the
period 1850-2019. Globally, 41 per cent of the world‘s population lived in countries
emitting less than 3 tCO2e per capita in 2019.
 Current pledges made by countries who have signed the Paris Agreement are known
as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Upon adding up the NDCs
announced by countries till October 2021, the IPCC finds that it is likely that warming
will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C) in this century, thereby failing the Paris
Agreement‘s mandate.
 The CO2 emissions from existing and planned fossil fuel infrastructure — coal, oil,
and gas — contribute greatly to this projected failure. In its best-case scenario, known
as the C1 pathway, the IPCC outlines what the world needs to do to limit
temperatures to 1.5°C, with limited or no ‗overshoot‘. The period of time in which
warming is increasing past the 1.5°C and then cooling back down is called overshoot.

4. Key Solutions or Positives from the third part of Assessment Report 6

 Widespread ‗system transformations‘ are required across the energy, buildings,
transport, land and other sectors, to achieve the 1.5°C target and this will involve
adopting low-emission or zero carbon pathways of development in each sector. But
solutions are available at affordable costs.
 The costs of low emissions technologies have fallen continuously since 2010. On a
unit costs basis, solar energy has dropped 85 per cent, wind by 55 per cent, and
lithium-ion batteries by 85 per cent.
 The report also adds that demand-side mitigation, ie, behavioural changes such as
adopting plant-based diets, or shifting to walking and cycling ―can reduce global GHG
emissions in end use sectors by 40-70 per cent by 2050 compared to baseline
scenarios‖ and improve wellbeing. Most of the potential for demand-side mitigation
currently lies in developed countries, it clarifies.
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Investing in decarbonisation would have a minimal impact on global Gross Domestic

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Product (GDP). Without taking into account the economic benefits of reduced
adaptation costs or avoided climate impacts, global GDP would be just a few
percentage points lower in 2050 if we take the actions necessary to limit warming to
2°C (3.6°F) or below, compared to maintaining current policies.

5. Implications for India

 The report‘s warning against opening new coal plants is of relevance to India. The
panel finds that all coal-fired power plants, without the technology to capture and
store carbon (CCS), would need to be shuttered by 2050 if the world aspired to limit
global temperature rise to 1.5°C. According to the Central Electricity Authority, India
had about 211 GW of operational coal-fired power plants — roughly 10% of global
capacity.
 India has committed to a net-zero year, or when it would cease to be a net carbon
dioxide emitter, of 2070 and has defined a pathway to transition to renewable energy
sources but also insisted on its right to coal use given its developmental needs as well
underlining that the historical responsibility of climate change from fossil fuel rested
with the developed countries, who needed to shoulder much of the mitigating
burden.
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Practice Questions:
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In its latest assessment report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has
laid out several scenarios on the steps that ought to be taken to keep temperatures below
2°C. It warned that even temporarily exceeding the warming level of 1.5°C over the next
two decades would mean additional severe impact, some irreversible. Total net
anthropogenic GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions have continued to rise from 2010–2019, as
have cumulative net CO2 emissions since 1850. Average annual GHG emissions during 2010-
2019 were higher than in any previous decade, but the rate of growth between 2010 and
2019 was lower than that between 2000 and 2009. By 2019, the largest growth in absolute
emissions occurred in carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and industry followed by methane. The
per-unit costs of several low-emission technologies have fallen continuously since 2010,
however innovation has lagged in developing countries due to weak enabling conditions.
Even if countries adhered to their promises towards reducing emissions, called Nationally
Determined Contributions, warming will still exceed the target set in the 2015 Paris
Agreement . Keeping warming below the target would then rely on a rapid acceleration of
mitigation efforts after 2030.
Tracked financial flows were still falling short of the levels needed to achieve mitigation goals
across all sectors and regions. The challenge of closing gaps was largest in developing
countries as a whole. Increasing financial flows can be supported by clear policy choices and
signals from governments and the international community, it said. According to the
scientists, limiting warming to around 1.5°C requires global greenhouse gas emissions to peak
before 2025 at the latest and be reduced by 43% by 2030; at the same time, methane would
also need to be reduced by about a third. Even if this happened, it is almost inevitable that
this ceiling would be temporarily breached but, with appropriate action, it could again dip by
the end of the century.
Source- TheHindu (https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/energy-and-environment/explained-
what-are-the-takeaways-from-the-latest-ipcc-report-on-climate-
change/article65305914.ece)
1. In which year was the first IPCC Assessment Report released?
A. 1990
B. 1991
C. 1992
D. 1993
2. Choose the correct option from the following.
(i) The Paris Agreement intends to keep a global temperature rise this century well
below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit
the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
(ii) The fourth assessment report released in 2007 had won the Nobel Peace Prize in
the same year.
A. (i) is correct, (ii) is wrong
B. (ii) correct, (i) is wrong
C. Both the statements are correct
D. Both the statements are wrong
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As per the third part of the Assessment Report 6, in 2019, the global net anthropogenic

54 per cent higher than in 1990.

A. 49
B. 59
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GHG emissions were at ________ gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e),

C. 69
D. 79
4. As per the third part of Assessment Report 6, the Least Developed Countries (LDCs)
are emitting what per cent of global emissions in 2019?
A. 3.3
B. 4.4
C. 5.5
D. 6.6
5. What is the title of the third part of Assessment Report 6 released by the third Working
Group (WG) of IPCC?
A. Climate Change 2022: The Physical Science Basis
B. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
C. Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change
D. None of the Above

Answers:
1. A
2. C
3. B
4. A
5. C