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Preliminary Damage Assessment Summary Report of Karnali
Preliminary Damage Assessment Summary Report of Karnali
Preliminary Damage Assessment Summary Report of Karnali
SUMMARY REPORT
OF
KARNALI PROVINCE
MANGSIR 2079
2.3.1 Humla................................................................................................................... 4
2.3.2 Kalikot.................................................................................................................. 5
2.3.3 Jumla .................................................................................................................... 6
2.3.4 Mugu .................................................................................................................... 6
2.4 Seismology of the Region ........................................................................................... 7
4.2.1 Humla................................................................................................................. 20
4.2.2 Kalikot................................................................................................................ 23
4.2.3 Jumla .................................................................................................................. 25
4.2.4 Mugu .................................................................................................................. 27
4.3 Damage Assessment of the Disaster Region ............................................................. 29
i
LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE 4-1 PHOTO SUMMARY OF THE HUMLA DISTRICT................................................................................................... 11
FIGURE 4-2 PHOTO SUMMARY OF KALIKOT DISTRICT ....................................................................................................... 14
FIGURE 4-3 PHOTO SUMMARY OF JUMLA DISTRICT.......................................................................................................... 16
FIGURE 4-4 PHOTO SUMMARY OF MUGU DISTRICT ......................................................................................................... 19
FIGURE 4-5 DISTRICTWISE DAMAGE FIGURES .................................................................................................................. 33
ii
LIST OF TABLES
TABLE 4-1 DAMAGE DATA AS PROVIDED BY LOCAL LEVEL .................................................................................................. 20
TABLE 4-2 MONETARY VALUE OF DAMAGE .................................................................................................................... 22
TABLE 4-3 DAMAGE DATA PROVIDED BY LOCAL LEVELS .................................................................................................... 23
TABLE 4-4 MONETARY VALUE OF DAMAGE .................................................................................................................... 24
TABLE 4-5 DAMAGE DATA PROVIDED BY LOCAL LEVEL ...................................................................................................... 25
TABLE 4-6 MONETARY VALUE OF DMAAGE .................................................................................................................... 26
TABLE 4-7 DISTRICTWISE DAMAGE AMMOUNT IN NRS..................................................................................................... 32
iii
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION
This report deals with the study of landslide and flood damage incurred after the prolonged
rainfall event of October, 2022 based on the technical guidelines governed by NDRRMA.
Further supportive documents i.e., previous studies made by different agencies like DMG,
UNDP on disaster were taken as reference to complete this assessment. The objective of the
assessment is to get a preliminary level understanding of the locations, dimensions, and impacts
of the landslides and flood and their impact on the overall socioeconomic condition of the
region. The assessment has also proposed the recommendation for future study and short term
mitigation measures for the affected region. As the study was conducted immediately after the
disaster so, many locations were inaccessible, which are included in the report based on the
official data provided by the local and district administration.
1.1 Background
Due to continuous rainfall in the upper part of Karnali Province in the month of October, 2022,
extensive damage has occurred to the infrastructures and buildings. The landslide and flood
due to the rainfall has claimed life of around 50 people leaving thousand to search for shelter
as their permanent residence have become inhabitable. After the disaster, National Disaster
Risk Reduction and Management Authority assigned four team for four most affected districts
for preliminary assessment of the disaster. The four district that are chosen for assessment are
Humla, Jumla, Kalikot and Mugu district of Karnali Province.
Table 1-1 Assigned Team
S.N. District Full Name Designation
1 Humla Jivan Joshi Civil Engineer
2 Humla Dev Raj Poudel Structure Engineer (Team Lead)
3 Humla Yubaraj Pangyani Administrative Officer
4 Jumla Pawan Babu Bastola Geo-tech Engineer (Team Lead)
5 Jumla Laxmi Parsad Bhatta Civil Engineer
6 Jumla Deepak kumar Khadka Administrative Officer
7 Mugu Raghunath Rimal Civil Engineer
8 Mugu Harish Paneru Geo-tech Engineer (Team Lead)
9 Mugu Deepak Kumar Acharya Administrative Officer
10 Kalikot Keshari Prasad Bhatta Civil Engineer
11 Kalikot Birasa Malla Geo-tech Engineer (Team Lead)
12 Kalikot Deepak Neupane Administrative Officer
13 Kalikot Saroj Kumar Yadav Civil Engineer
1
1.2 Objectives
2
CHAPTER 2 DESK STUDY
The Himalaya extends nearly 2400 Kms from Namche Barwa in the east to Naga Parwat in the
west out of which the Nepal Himalaya covers around one third of the total Himalayan arc.
Nepal is tectonically divided into five distinct regions Gansser, 1974, Himalaya is divided
longitudinally into five tectonic zones. From south to north, the tectonic zones are Siwaliks,
Lesser Himalaya, Higher Himalaya, Tethys Himalaya and Trans Himalaya. According to
Thakur (1981), these tectonic zones are separated by major Himalayan thrust faults. The
southern most part i.e., Terai is separated from Siwaliks by Main Frontal Thrust (MFT) whereas
the Siwaliks and Lesser Himalaya are separated by Main Boundary Thrust (MBT). The Main
Central Thrust (MCT) is the fault separating the Lesser and Higher Himalaya. Finally, the
South Tibetan Detachment marks the boundary between Higher Himalaya and overlying
fossiliferous sequence of Tibetan Tethys Himalaya.
The study area lies in the Karnali Province of western Nepal. Four districts of the province
suffered extensively due to unseasonal rainfall event. The elevation of the study region varies
from 7000 ft to 26713 ft.
3
2.2 Regional Geology
The regional geology of the four districts are dominated by the rocks of Lesser Himalayan in
the South and Higher Himalayan in the northern part of the district. Rocks belonging to
Nawakot (Na) and Kuncha (Kn) Formation of Tansen group of Lesser Himalayan Meta-
Sediments and Bhimphedi (bh) and Phulcauki (ph) group of Lesser Himalayan Crystallines
and Precambrian high grade metamorphic rocks (hx) and Tertiary (Tgr) of Higher Himalayan
Crystalline rocks and Paleozioc (Pz) Sedimentary rocks Higher Himalayan Rocks.
2.3.1 Humla
The average rainfall of Nepal for the month of September and October is around 200mm and
50 mm respectively but, Mugu district received around 104 mm and 179 mm respectively in
the month of September and October (in 7 days). The observation reading is recorded from
meteorological station at Simikot Airport alone.
4
From the chart above, we can understand that the extent of rainfall during the month of October
(Asoj) was far higher than the average rainfall over Humla district which is the reason behind
the initiation of different disaster.
2.3.2 Kalikot
The average rainfall of Nepal for the month of September and October is around 200mm and
50 mm respectively but, Kalikot district received around 249.2 mm and 323.2 mm respectively
in the month of September and October (in 18 days). The observation reading are recorded
from meterological station at Manma alone.
5
2.3.3 Jumla
The average rainfall of Nepal for the month of September and October is around 200mm and
50 mm respectively while the precipitation of Jumla in the month of September and October
are as shown in Figure 2.3. The observation reading is recorded from meteorological station at
Jumla Airport alone.
2.3.4 Mugu
The average rainfall of Nepal for the month of September and October is around 200mm and
50 mm respectively but, Mugu district received around 178.26 mm and 234.24 mm respectively
in the month of September and October (in 12 days). The observation reading are recorded
from meterological station at Talcha Airport alone.
6
2.4 Seismology of the Region
The region lies in seismically one of the most active zone of the world. The region has
experienced historical great earthquakes in the past and has not experienced such event for
large amount of time. Hence, the region lies in the seismic gap created west of the Pokhara.
7
CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY
The assigned team for Mugu district were mobilized in 15 October 2022. The purpose of the
visit is to collect the relevant information and data required for the preliminary assessment of
the disaster zone.
1. Desk study is conducted to determine the parameters to be studied in the field
2. Conduct DDMC meeting to assess the progress and limitation in the rescue works and
know the places where critical need of study is required.
3. Walkover survey and use of pocket tools such as tape, geological compass etc to assess
the extent of disaster zone and susceptible areas.
4. Investigate and determine the possible relocation region if available
5. Preparation of report and presentation of data and information collected from the site.
Safety tools such as helmets, boots and other accessories were used during the visit of disaster
areas.
8
CHAPTER 4 SUMMARY
The rapid assessment team was deployed in the aftermath of the disaster. The objective of the
team was to collect as much as possible data and prepare a report based on the collected and
provided data. With that objective in mind, all teams started their work with the DDMC
meeting with all the representatives from district administration, security personnel, local
agencies, journalist and stakeholders. The teams were assigned with some location which
needed critical investigation. So, the team visited the assigned locations and collected some
information which is presented in this report.
The field visit was conducted within different places of four district. The type of disaster and
its cause are similar for most area of the district. The main reason for the wide range damage
in infrastructure and house is due to the unexpected continuous rainfall. These rainfall events
has caused runoff, increased flow in the local rivers and stream which in turn affected
settlement and infrastructures near to those streams. In addition to that, the toe cutting by river
of already saturated hill slope and erosion caused by the unmanaged runoff water flowing along
the slope has worsened their odds to landslide susceptibility let alone in some cases have
already failed taking all the structures such as water supply lines, local road, transmission pole,
farm lands and houses with it thereby, impairing the services within the vast region of these
district. The extent of damage to human life may be minimal owing to the fact that the extent
of disaster is relatively high but these slopes are going to fail in future if the agricultural
practices along these lands are continued and surface and sub-surface water management is
taken lightly.
9
4.1.1 Humla District
10
Landslide at road section of Simikot-6
11
4.1.2 Kalikot District
House damages
12
Infrastructure damaged due to disaster
13
Damage due to flood in Jiteghada bazar
Figure 4-2 Photo Summary of Kalikot District
14
Settlement vulnerable to disaster
15
Infrastructure damaged due to disaster
16
4.1.4 Mugu District
Temporary settlement
17
18
Infrastructure damaged due to disaster
19
4.2 Damage and Losses
The data and figures have been provided by local and district administration and are
summarized in this section. The figures are likely to increase as more detailed survey are
conducted through every local levels. The loss estimation is a preliminary information to figure
out the scale of damage loss in terms of financial value. Due to difficult geographical terrain,
unconnected roadways, scattered settlement and limited timeframe, the NDRRMA team had
visited limited area, but an effort was made to mobilize technical team of each municipality for
collection of the information on damage and losses caused by prolonged rainfall after Asoj
17,2079.
The damage quantity and estimation are summarized in following tables. These figures have
been provided by the local level government as a part of damage assessment so, the figures are
likely to fluctuate as the detailed data are provided during detailed study.
4.2.1 Humla
Kharpunath
Tanajankot
Chankheli
Adanchuli
Sarkegad
Namkha
Simkot
Description Total
a Death 1 1 4 0 0 0 2 8
b Injury 2 0 3 0 1 0 0 6
d School 5 1 3 9 0 6 3 27
e Health Post/Hospital 1 2 0 2 0 0 0 5
Public/Government
f Building 4 2 0 0 0 1 0 7
5.0 12.0 8.6 15.0 1.2 9.0 4.0 54.8
g Road/ Walking trail km km km km km km km km
20
Kharpunath
Tanajankot
Chankheli
Adanchuli
Sarkegad
Namkha
Simkot
Description Total
h Bridge 1 5 5 0 0 2 0 13
Micro/small
Hydropower/Supply
i system - 1 2 2 2 0 1 8
k Agricultural land/Farm 0 0 21 - - 0 - 21
Cultural heritage /
l Temple/Monastery - 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
The pie chart above represents the proportion of financial losses among different sectors. In
overall the damage in the housing sector accounted for more than half of the total losses, i.e.,
56%, which was followed by road/ walking trails and contributed 15%. All other sectoral losses
were below 10% with least 0.1% in cultural heritage.
21
Table 4-2 Monetary value of Damage
Public/Government
4 17500000 3000000 0 0 0 4500000 0 25000000
Buildings
5 Road/ Walking trail 20000000 24205000 21896858 25000000 1400000 16000000 9000000 117501858
Micro/Small Hydropower
7 0 10000000 7511420 12000000 960000 0 500000 30971420
/supply line
Total in words: Rupees Seventy-six Crore Twenty-two Lakh Ninety-three Thousand Two Hundred Seventy-eight Only
22
4.2.2 Kalikot
Khandachakra
Pachaljharana
Sanni Tribeni
Naraharinath
Suvakalika
Mahawai
Tilagufa
Raskot
Palata
Grand
Total
S.N Particulars
1 Death 2 1 5 8
2 Injury 3 2 20 25
3 Lost 15 15
4 House fully damaged 24 10 54 170 200 134 55 219 174 1040
5 House partially damaged 99 99
6 House on Risk 281 274 555
7 Health Post 1 2 7 10
8 School 1 6 18 26 29 23 11 8 18 140
9 Road 13 1 20 14 9 20 1 9 14 101
10 Bridge 1 3 3 7
11 Foot trail 6 23 1 82 13 22 147
12 Suspension Bridge 1 2 9 2 4 6 24
13 Wooden Bridge 3 8 11
14 Water Supply 8 15 29 32 103 38 5 44 274
15 Irrigation 3 33 17 2 110 51 9 27 252
16 Sewerage 6 6
17 Hydro Power 5 5
18 Small Hydro 6 6
19 Government Building 1 18 8 3 5 35
20 Temple 1 12 36 49
21 Electric pole 25 101 126
22 River Training work 11 44 157 212
23 Slope Stabilization 1 1 2
23
Table 4-4 Monetary Value of Damage
S.N. Particulars Khandachakra Mahawai Naraharinath Pachaljharana Palata Raskot Sanni Tribeni Suvakalika Tilagufa Grand Total
1 House fully damaged 5,000,000 14,150,000 51,000,000 100,000,000 67,000,000 26,900,000 109,500,000 87,000,000 460,550,000
House partially
2 22,400,000 22,400,000
damaged/on risk
3 Health Post 100,000 7,500,000 13,000,000 20,600,000
4 School 900,000 17,500,000 11,300,000 14,500,000 17,200,000 29,790,000 27,500,000 19,500,000 31,500,000 169,690,000
5 Road/Foot trail 19,200,000 24,700,000 6,052,000 25,900,000 49,600,000 37,880,000 3,000,000 36,000,000 79,500,000 281,832,000
Total 34,440,000 198,150,000 63,191,000 122,540,000 670,730,000 226,831,000 57,400,000 248,900,000 484,250,000 2,106,432,000
24
4.2.3 Jumla
25
Table 4-6 Monetary Value of Dmaage
Sector Chandannath Guthichaur Hima Kanakasundari Patrasi Sinja Tatopani Tila Grand Total
Health
1,000,000 1,500,000 2,500,000
Services
Housing land
and 84,900,000 22,900,000 193,000,000 267,300,000 3,420,000 77,500,000 253,500,000 38,450,000 940,970,000
Settlement
Water Supply
Sanitation and 500,000 3,000,000 40,800,000 15,600,000 200,000 18,900,000 13,300,000 92,300,000
Hygiene
Grand Total 131,550,000 41,485,000 504,535,000 438,848,000 4,120,000 202,158,000 446,540,450 486,725,000 2,255,961,450
26
4.2.4 Mugu
27
S Particulars Damage Estimate in Nrs. Total
N Chayanath Rara Soru R. Khatyad R. Mugu Karmarong R. Structure
Mun. Mun. Mun. Mun. wise
(Nrs.)
1 Water Mill NA NA 36500000 NA 3650000
0 0
1 Wooden Bridge NA NA 55780000 NA 5578000
1 0
1 Public Building NA 26000000 2900000 NA 2890000
2 0
1 Miscellaneous NA NA NA 9310200 9310200
3
Total Local Level Wise 291600000 25970000 722390000 20026200 1293716
(Nrs.) 0 200
28
4.3 Damage Assessment of the Disaster Region
The data given in 4.2 are compiled to determine the overall damage in the four districts of
Karnali Province namely, Humla, Kalikot, Jumla and Mugu. The data are summarized in Table
4-7.
4.4 Causes
4.5 Recommendation
The disaster hit region of four districts were studied and following recommendation can be
suggested for mitigation:
1) After the rapid damage assessment, it is recommended to carry out further
geotechnical, geological and hydrological study in the mentioned sites of respective
districts.
Kalikot District:
• Khandachakra: 5, Garuwa and Ghodena
• Tilagufa: 4-Ranchuli, 7-Baligaun
• Palata: 8-Sonabada to Naibada
Jumla District:
• Tatopani Rural Municipality: Ward 4 – Jhargaun, Ward 3 – Lachhu Gaun, Ward
6 – Aireni, Ward 1- Birakha
• Tila Rural Municipality: Ward 4- Sakhu and Nuwakot, Ward 1- Mathillo
Khopri, Ward 5- Tilakot
• Hima Rural Municipality: Ward 6- Khaldhunga/ Dalitbasti , Ward 1 Badki/
Deragaun, Ward 3- Mophla, Ward 5- Banjaghat
• Sinja Rural Municipality: Ward 6 Ruga, Ward 2 Chulelgaun
• Kanaka Sundari Rural Municipality: Ward no 5- Barkote Bada , Ward no 3 –
Lumagaun
• Patrashi Rural Municipality: Ward 3 – Chauragaun
29
• Guthichour Rural Municipality: Ward 1- Madi Sangu
Humla District:
• Heldum Small Hydropower- Simikot-4, Humla
• Tanjhakot Rural Municipality: Ward 1 (Kada gaun), Ward 2 (Baun bada, Koli
bada) , Ward 3 (Aulabudataja)
• Sarkegada Rural Municipality ward 1,5,7 and 8
• Adanchuli Rural Municipality- Ward 1,3 ,4 and 6
Mugu District:
• Chayanath Rural Municipality, Salim Landslide
• Talcha Airport
• Balai Bagar
• Chaina Khola
• Dobato Pahiro
• Duka Khola Pahiro
• Bhelbhir Pahiro
• Topla Landslide
• Soru Landslide
• Khatyad Landslide
2) Detail survey of landslide and flood including drone survey is to be done for the precise
study. Landslide Susceptibility map should be made and Hazard Map should be
prepared for the susceptible area. Further, Geophysical tests like ERT and SRT should
be carried out for characterizing the subsurface soil.
3) Geological study of road alignment must be done to propose retaining structures for
the scale of cutting done to construct the road.
4) Detail hydrological study of river and streams and the watershed area and probable
events of such or larger scale shall be determined.
5) The existing structures such as bridges, road following river route, hydropower,
irrigation and water supply, water mills shall be protected against future events of this
scale by providing embankments, river training structures, gully protection measures
such as check dams, energy dissipation structure etc.
6) One of the most lacking things that investigation team has found is the poor
management of water in steep residual slope which has led to erosion and debris flow
at multiple locations. These kinds of situations can be dealt with the provision of catch
30
drains to divert water from problematic slope and disposal of the collected water at a
site with proper provision for energy dissipation of flowing water and check dams to
reduce debris flow.
7) The problem of erosion at most of the location can be mitigated with drainage works
accompanied by bio-engineering works.
8) Before relocation of displaced settlements, a proper study to demarcate hazard prone
region is required to avoid future losses.
31
Table 4-7 Districtwise Damage Ammount in NRs.
32
762,293,278.00
1,293,716,200.00
2,106,432,000.00
2,255,961,450.00
4.6 Limitation
The rapid response team were assigned for the preliminary study of disaster in four disaster hit
district. The teams have prepared this report based on the visual inspection of most affected
sites. So, this report does not provide design of any mitigation measure. The mitigation measure
mentioned in this report are suggestive in nature and should be only implemented after detailed
study has been conducted. The estimation of damage is also tentative so, the figures are likely
to vary in the light of new facts and data. Many sites were inaccessible so damage estimation
is likely to increase after acquisition of data from such sites. Inclusion of advanced survey
methods like geophysical methods and drone survey can be very beneficial in the inaccessible
regions of the districts.
33