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7.ipc Yemen Food Security Nutrition 2022june Report English
7.ipc Yemen Food Security Nutrition 2022june Report English
Amran humanitarian
> 25% offood assistanc
households m
538,000 facing severe acute malnutrition. An additional 1.3 million cases
Hajjah
of pregnant and lactating women are also projected over the year. At the
Marib
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Sana'a >>25%
25%ofofhouseholds
householdsmm
ofofcaloric
caloricneeds
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same time, a total of 17.4 million people or 54 percent of the population
Al Hudaydah Shabwah
Raymah Dhamar
Red Sea Arabian Sea
Al Bayda
> 25% of households m
faced high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 and above) from January to Ibb
Al Dhale'e EvidenceofLevel
caloric needs throug
Abyan
May 2022, with 31,000 people classified in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe), 5.6 Taizz
1 - Minimal 5 - Famine
Socotra
* Acceptable
Lahj
Evidence
** Medium Level
million (18 percent) in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 11.7 million people Eritrea
Aden
2 - Stressed Areas with inadequate
Gulf of Aden
*** High
(37 percent) in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). Between June and December 2022, the
Ethiopia
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Scarce evidence due to limi
LevelMedium
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- Famine
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- Famine no forhumanitarian
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to the High
districts. Please refer***
number of people likely to experience high levels of acute food insecurity Limitations of
2 - Stressed 24 --Areas with inadequate
Emergency
Stressed Areas with inadequateAnalysis section) Scarce evidence due to limi
(IPC Phase 3 or above) is estimated to increase to 19 million (60 percent evidence evidence no humanitarian access
3 - Crisis 3 - Areas
Crisis not analysed Areas not analysed
of the total population). Out of these, 11.7 million people are estimated
to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), 7.1 million in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), and Key Drivers
4 - Emergency 4 - Emergency
The increase in extreme food insecurity led to the deployment of two additional complimentary analysis tools/mechanisms to further
review the situation in locations with the most concerning levels of acute food security outcomes:
• Famine Review Committee (FRC): This committee was activated due to alerting severity levels in five districts that could indicate
a likelihood of famine, particularly the district of Abs in Hajjah.
• The Risk of Famine (ROF) analysis: This additional analysis was conducted to complement the standard IPC analysis in 15 districts
with populations in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe). The Risk of Famine analysis considers the impact of shocks deemed unlikely, yet
possible in the worst-case scenario. In this instance, conflict leading to besiegement was considered.
dire situation, with all districts projected to be in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) during the same period (June-December 2022) due to a
combination of drivers including conflict, displacement and economic hardship. In the current and projected analyses, Taizz has the
highest number of people facing critical acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 4).
Hajjah is facing the worst situation, with 31,000 in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) in the Current period (January-May 2022), and it is
projected to reach 49,000 from June-December 2022. In addition, Al Hudaydah, Sana’a City, Amran, Al Jawf, Raymah, Al Mahwit, and
Sana’a are projected to have populations in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in the period June-December 2022.
Acute Malnutrition
The acute malnutrition situation is expected to deteriorate further during the projected period of June -September 2022 because of
worsening food security aggravated by conflict, high morbidity, outbreaks of diarrhoea and other illness, poor child diets (in terms of
both quality and quantity), and limited sub-optimal public health environment. Due to this, 91 percent of districts in Yemen will be in
IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious) and above. Two districts (Abs and Hayran) are projected to be at Extremely Critical levels (IPC AMN phase
5), while 108 districts (33 percent) will be Critical (IPC AMN Phase 4), 193 districts (33 percent) will be Serious (IPC AMN Phase 3) and 28
districts (8 percent) in Alert (IPC AMN Phase 2). Two districts (Midi and Haradh)
were not classified due to lack of data.
Based on the 2021 SMART surveys, the national prevalence of wasting stands
at 9.9 percent (confidence interval of 9.5-10.3 percent). This represents a
slight improvement compared to previous estimates within the past 10 years,
13 percent in 2011, 11.9 percent in 2019, and 9.9 percent in 2021. Wasting
identified by weight for height z-scores and/or oedema was significantly
higher in children aged 6 to 23 months than in children aged 24 to 59 months.
Overall and per the WHO 2019 threshold for wasting, the prevalence of acute
malnutrition in Yemen is categorised as ‘medium’, noting that the prevalence is
at the border and the upper confidence interval is above the ‘high’ threshold
(10 percent). This is likely due to the time of the surveys (November to January),
which is not the peak season for acute malnutrition. The peak season in Yemen
is experienced between June -September, and any assessment done outside this period may not provide an accurate picture of the
period of highest need (June -September).
In most governorates, the prevalence of wasting is below 15 percent except in Hajjah, Al Hudaydah and Taizz, ranging from 17 percent
to 26.9 percent. Four zones in these governorates (Hajjah Northern Lowland, Hajjah Western Lowland, Hajjah Southern Lowland, and
Taizz Lowland) have shown an increase in the prevalence of wasting between the 2019 and 2021 SMART surveys despite the seasonal
differences mentioned above. These governorates contribute to about 40 percent of the total burden of SAM and MAM, implying the
need to prioritise response in these governorates.
KEY DRIVERS
Conflict1
Conflict continues to be the primary driver of food insecurity in Yemen, leading to macroeconomic crisis, displacement, and closure of
ports which is negatively affecting the availability and access to food for the majority of the vulnerable population. Most governorates
with a high prevalence of food insecure populations (IPC Phase 3 and above) are characterised by active conflict zones. These include
parts of Taizz, Al Hudaydah, Hajjah, Shabwah, Marib and Al Dhale’e governorates. Conflicts in these areas have resulted in population
displacements, widespread loss of livelihoods and lives in some instances, disruption of food supply chains and market access,
increased cost and risk of doing business and disruption in delivery of critical life saving assistance including access to essential
services like healthcare, education, water and sanitation.
The escalation in southern Marib (Hareb and Al Joubah districts), northwest Hajjah (Haradh), and northeast Taizz (Maqbanah)
exacerbated the situation. Armed conflict is actively ongoing in the northern district of Marib (Majzar, Raghwan, and Medghal),
expanding into the southern districts of Al Jawf (Al Hazm and Alkhlaq), as well as in the Al Safra district. The analysis considered a
possible escalation of conflict in the projection period to expand into new areas like other southern districts of Marib (Alabidyah,
Mahliyah, Al Rahbah, and Jabal Murad) and other bordering districts of Al Bayda (Nate’ and Na’man) and Shabwah. Further, the
1 It is important to note that after the time of writing this report, a historic truce between the warring had been reached in the country and most of the conflict
assumptions are not evident. An IPC update will factor in these changes.
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 4
projection analysis expected the conflict to spread into other districts in Hajjah, particularly Haradh, Abs and Mustaba. The ongoing
active fighting in the northwest of Taizz governorate is also projected to expand to new areas of Maqbanah, Jabal Habashi and further
to the eastern districts of Salh district and surrounding areas.
Economic Crisis
• Depreciation of the local currency in IRG-controlled areas: over the past 12 months, the Yemeni riyal witnessed unprecedented
levels of depreciation, reaching a new historic low in December 2021 at around YER 1,700 against 1 US dollar (losing almost
47 percent of its value compared to the same time in 2020). In early January 2022, there was a temporary relief triggered by
administrative changes in the Central Bank and speculations of new deposits by Saudi Arabia. However, after a few weeks, the
exchange rate stabilised from mid-January to around 1,100–1,200 YER/USD, triggered mainly by sustained high demands for hard
currency. Depreciation of the riyal is projected to continue in 2022 albeit slower than in 2021, despite several fiscal measures
taken by the Central Bank since much depends on the anticipated external cash injection. A weakened riyal will further push
unaffordability of basic necessities including food. The depreciation particularly hit IRG-controlled areas, while the exchange rate
against the USD remained stable in SBA areas in 2021 and early 2022.
• Food prices and cost of minimum food basket: the currency depreciation continued to drive food prices up, especially in IRG-
controlled areas. Consequently, it increased the cost of the minimum food basket. In a country heavily dependent on food
imports (almost 90 percent), the collapse of the local currency has led to drastic increases in food prices. Wheat flour prices
increased by up to 120 percent on average between January and December 2021 in the IRG and 30 percent in SBA areas, while
the average cost of the minimum food basket increased 115 percent in IRG-controlled areas and 28 percent in areas controlled
by SBA respectively over the same period. In combination with declining or stagnant income opportunities, these factors have
eroded the population’s purchasing power. Food prices are expected to maintain an upward trend throughout 2022 and remain
above 2021 price levels, driven by further deprecation and high transportation costs. This will drive up the share of the population
unable to afford essential food and non-food needs, resulting in heightened food insecurity.
• Constrained employment: The public sector is a major employer. Cessation and/or delays in payment of salaries by the government
continues to drive many people into high economic vulnerability. According to the Food Security and Livelihood Assessment
(FSLA), public salaries or pension are the primary source of income for at least 40 percent of the households in Abyan, Aden,
Socotra, Al Dhale’e, Marib and Lahj governorates. The situation is further aggravated by the fact that many households have no
or limited alternative income sources to fall back on to offset the unreliability in public sector wages.
• Declining remittances: Remittances, especially from Gulf Countries where many Yemeni migrants live and support their families,
declined during the COVID-19 pandemic and the level still remains below the pre-COVID levels. Furthermore, Yemeni migrant
workers in Saudi Arabia have been affected by the nationalisation of the private sector, which has led to increased fees and fewer
job opportunities.
• The food-fuel nexus: Trends observed from early 2021 to early 2022 reveal a strong linkage between fuel and food security through
price volatility and frequent shortages. Fuel price increase across the country was mainly influenced by the steady depreciation
of the local currency and rising global oil prices resulting in supply shortfalls, as well as blockage and delays in clearance at the
port in Al Hudaydah, which supplies the northern governorates . This has knock-on effects throughout the economy, resulting
in increased transport cost and shortages in electricity, gas and water – all critical to the livelihoods of most of the population.
The increase in these costs has ultimately driven higher inflation levels, affecting the prices of various goods and services (food
and non-food), as producers ultimately pass production costs on to consumers already grappling with low incomes and income-
earning opportunities. Furthermore, the high fuel prices and unavailability have adverse effects on agricultural production and
fisheries as an increasing number of individuals leave the sectors, putting further pressure on an already tight labour market.
• Fuel crisis is driven by regulatory issues and logistics: In early 2022, the fuel crisis in the northern governorates of Yemen peaked
and reached a critical point as a result of delays in port clearances and blockages. The unavailability of fuel products in areas
under Sana’a Based Authority (SBA) is one of the recurring phenomena, which quickly turns into an acute crisis affecting the daily
life, livelihoods, health services, as well as the economic and productive sectors operating in the northern corridor. This is mainly
due to the suspension of permits and clearance delays for fuel vessels at the Al Hudaydah port. The alternative route of supplying
through southern ports is expensive and impacted by regulations of the Yemen Petroleum Company (YPC). Apart from affecting
the regular commercial transport market, fuel shortages have also affected humanitarian assistance as transport companies
increase their costs. In some instances, there have been reports of significant delays as the transporters exhaust their contingency
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 5
stocks, leading to delays of up to two weeks to refuel their trucks. This has also disrupted the supply chain as millers had to reduce
their capacity as outputs could not be uplifted on time, leading to increased storage costs.
Morbidity
Communicable diseases, a primary cause of acute malnutrition in under-five children, remain one of the key contributing factors
affecting food security in Yemen, adding more burden on the vulnerable households. Based on recent SMART surveys conducted in
late 2021 and early 2022, over 40 percent of children under five (45 percent in northern governorates and 38.7 percent in the south)
suffer from diarrhoea, while 62 percent had a fever and 52.1 percent had malaria. The disease trend of the last three years showed
a significant increase in cases in 2021 compared to 2020 and 2019 for diarrhoea, malaria, ARI and measles in all governorates. This is
mainly due to the fragility of the health system in Yemen, inaccessibility to health and nutrition services by vulnerable households in
some areas, and closure of health and nutrition services in some areas such as the frontline districts of Hajjah, Marib, Al Bayda and Al
Dhale.
The Electronic Disease Early Warning System (eDEWS) confirmed the SMART survey results, which show that 2021 recorded the
highest suspected cases of malaria-related fevers, with a peak in the second half of the year. Al Hudaydah and Hajjah reported the
highest rates with 47.7 percent and 26.2 percent, respectively, followed by Taizz (4.4 percent), Saada (4.1 percent), Ibb (4 percent), and
Dhamar (3.5 percent) and Amran 3.4 percent. While eDEWS represents the entire population, it is essential to mention that children
under five represent nearly one-third of all the cases mentioned. At the district level, Al Hawak, Bait Alfaqih (Al Hudaydah) and Abs
(Hajjah) account for the highest-burden of malaria.
Surveillance data from eDEWS also showed that acute watery diarrhoea, a proxy for cholera and a significant cause of death among
children, peaked in the spring and autumn of 2021, with the highest number of suspected cases in Ibb 18 percent, Al Hudaydah at 17
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 6
percent, Sana’a 14 percent, Taizz 11 percent, Amran 7 percent, Hajjah and Dhamar 6 percent, and Al Dhale and Al Mahweet 5 percent.
MAIN OUTCOMES
Key Assumptions for the June - December 2022 most likely scenario
Conflict: The most likely scenario in the coming months, is the likelihood of a sustained level or a further escalation of conflict, which would
likely expand into new areas like additional southern districts of Marib (Alabidyah, Mahliyah, Al Rahbah, and Jabal Murad) and other bordering
districts of Al Bayda (Nate’ and Na’man) and Shabwahh. In addition, conflict might expand from the northwest of Hajjah (Haradh) to new areas
in the southern sub-districts of Abs and to Mustaba. The ongoing active fighting in the northwest of Taizz governorate could expand to new
areas of Maqbanah, Jabal Habashi and would likely escalate in the eastern areas of Taizz (Salh district and surrounding areas). On the other
hand, there is active fighting in the northern district of Marib (Majzar, Raghwan, and Medghal), expanding into the southern districts of Al
Jawf (Al Hazm and Alkhlaq), while active fighting is ongoing in Sa’dah, particularly the district of Al Safra. Fighting is likely to continue in the
southern and southeastern districts of Al Hoddeidah.
Depreciation of the local currency: The Yemeni riyal appreciated by around 91 percent in early-January 2022 triggered by administrative
changes in the Central Bank and speculations of new deposits by the Gulf States. However, it started depreciating again from mid-January
though oscillating around 1,100 – 1,200 YER/USD, triggered mainly by sustained high demands for hard currency. Depreciation of the riyal is
projected to continue in 2022, albeit at a slower rate than 2021, despite the several fiscal measures taken by the Central Bank. Much depends
on the anticipated external cash injection in the Central Bank of Yemen by Saudi Arabia. A weakened riyal will push more people into to being
unable to afford basic necessities including food.
Food prices and cost of minimum food basket: Food prices are expected to maintain an upward trend and remain elevated above 2021
price levels driven by high transaction costs and currency depreciation effects, at least until the first harvests in bimodal areas in August-Sep-
tember. This will drive up the share of the population unable to afford essential food and non-food needs, resulting in heightened food
insecurity.
Availability of commodities, including food: The port of Hudeydah is expected to remain functional at a very low levels, and mainly, if not
only for humanitarian commodities. The inlet of food and fuel will likely remain extremely low. The continuing limited inlet of goods from
Hudeydah port will have an impact on food prices of key commodities, partially mitigated by increased food availability produced in the
inland districts including from Hudeydah. Despite the increased local production in the projection period, the bulk of basic commodities will
continue flowing in from Aden port, with high unit cost especially in SBA due to hefty logistic and high transport costs.
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 8
Seasonality: Overall, agricultural districts will likely benefit from two harvest, the main one in December, the lean one in August. Conflict
and low functionality of ports has disrupted in main agro-inputs which will affect the agricultural and agro-pastoral districts in SBA controlled
districts. Other districts in Al Hudeydah, Taizz, Marib, Hajjah, Al Dhali’, are expected to continue experience active conflict and high levels of
displacement that may curtail favourable seasonal effects due to security issues.
Livelihood and income: Labour opportunities for people in the western coast (especially in Al Hudeydah) will be continue being affected
by insecurity. Fishermen will be unable to sail due to risk of airstrikes. Income in the urban areas with highest rates of food insecurity (Al Hali
and Al Hawak) is highly dependent on Hudeydah city port, which will continue facing massive scale down of activities and opportunities.
Humanitarian Food Assistance: During the current analysis period (Jan-May), assistance levels are expected to cover 50% of the estimated
beneficiary. Starting June, planned assistance is expected to reduce further to 25% of the targeted caseload. These assumptions are based
on funding estimates available at the time of analysis.
Access to basic services: Limited access to health, nutrition, and WASH services due to conflict and low immunization coverage leading to
high morbidity. This, along with poor child-feeding practices, leads to high acute malnutrition levels. In the projected period, access to basic
services will remain limited.
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 9
5 - Famine
Map Symbols
Areas with inadequate evidence Urban settlement
classification
Projected Acute Food Insecurity Situation: June - December 2022 Areas not analysed
IDPs/other settlements
classification 1 - Minimal
Map Symbols
Urban settlement Area receives significant 21 - Stressed
classification humanitarian food assistance
Minimal During the projection period,
(accounted for in Phase classification) 32 -- Crisis
Stressed 233 districts are classified
Saudi Arabia IDPs/other settlements
classification > 25% of households meet 25-50% 43 - Emergency
of caloric needs through assistance
Oman Crisis in Phase 4 (Emergency), 94
Area receives significant 54 -- Famine
Emergency districts in Phase 3 (Crisis)
humanitarian food assistance > 25% of households meet > 50%
Sa'ada (accounted for in Phase classification) of caloric needs through assistance 5Areas
- Famine and evidence
with inadequate four districts in Phase 2
Al Jawf > 25% ofHadramaut
households meetEvidence
25-50% Level Al Maharah
Areas not (Stressed).
withanalysed
inadequate evidence
of caloric needs through assistance
Amran * Acceptable There are 23 districts that
Areas not analysed
Map Symbols
Hajjah
> 25% of households meet** > 50%Medium
*** High
of caloric needs through assistance Urban settlement
Map Symbols
have been projected to have
Amanat Al Asimah Scarce evidence due to limited or classification
Al Mahwit
Marib
Evidence Level no humanitarian access Urban settlement 161,000 population in Phase 5
Sana'a
IDPs/other settlements
classification
Al Hudaydah * Acceptable classification (Catastrophe).
Raymah Dhamar
Shabwah
** Medium IDPs/other settlements
*** High classification
Area receives significant
The severity increases in the
Red Sea Arabian Sea
Al Bayda
Scarce evidence due to limited or humanitarian food assistance
Ibb
no humanitarian access Area receives significant
Al Dhale'e (accounted for in Phase projection period with 86
classification)
Abyan humanitarian food assistance
Taizz Socotra > 25% of households meet 25-50%
districts
(accounted for in Phase classification) moving to higher
of caloric needs through assistance
Eritrea
Lahj
1 - Minimal > 25% of householdsIPC Phases,
meet 25-50% 82 of which move
Aden
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of> caloric
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of caloric needsfromthroughPhaseassistance3 (Crisis) to Phase 4
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3 - Crisis EvidenceofLevel
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Key for the Map 1 - Minimal 4 - Emergency Acceptable
* Medium
Evidence Level ( ** Μedium Evidence Level for about 30
5 - Famine
Map Symbols
Areas with inadequate evidence Urban settlement
classification
Areas not analysed
IDPs/other settlements
classification
Map Symbols
Urban settlement Area receives significant
classification humanitarian food assistance
IDPs/other settlements (accounted for in Phase classification)
classification > 25% of households meet 25-50%
of caloric needs through assistance
Area receives significant
humanitarian food assistance > 25% of households meet > 50%
(accounted for in Phase classification) of caloric needs through assistance
> 25% of households meetEvidence
25-50% Level
of caloric needs through assistance
* Acceptable
Medium
> 25% of households meet > 50%
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 11
Hajjah
Amran Areas not analysed
Map Symbols
Urban settlementFood insecurity, poor infant
Map Symbols
classification
Urban settlementand child feeding practices,
Amanat Al Asimah Marib
Al Mahwit
Sana'a
IDPs/other settlements
classification
Al Hudaydah
classification limited access to WASH, health
Shabwah
IDPs/other settlements
Red Sea
Raymah Dhamar
Arabian Sea classification
Area receives and nutrition services, and high
significant
Al Bayda
Ibb 1 - Acceptable humanitarian food assistance
Area receives
morbidity, are the key drivers to
significant
Al Dhale'e (accounted for in Phase classification)
Abyan humanitarian food assistance
> 25% of
malnutrition
households meet 25-50%
in Yemen.
Taizz 2 - Alert
Socotra
(accounted for in Phase classification)
Lahj
of caloric needs through assistance
> 25% of households meet 25-50%
Eritrea
Aden
Gulf of Aden 3 - Serious of> caloric
25% ofneeds
households
throughmeet > 50%
assistance
Ethiopia
Djibouti Socotra
of caloric needs through assistance
4 - Critical > 25% of households meet > 50%
EvidenceofLevel
caloric needs through assistance
Key for the Map 1 - Acceptable 5 - Extremely critical Acceptable
* Medium
Evidence Level ( ** Μedium Evidence Level for about 30
Humanitarian food assistance plays a vital role in Yemen, with a large proportion of the population relying on assistance as the
primary source of staple foods. Yemen Food Security and Agriculture Cluster (FSAC) planned to reach 12.6 million people, of which
96 percent were assisted during January-September 2021. Food assistance was significantly reduced in the first half of 2021 due to
a decrease in funding levels; however, in the second half of the year, a considerable scale-up reached more than three-quarters of
the caseload with their monthly requirements. Resources permitting, beneficiaries received the FSAC agreed standard ration of 80
percent of the total minimum requirement of 2,100 kcal/person/day. Given the fragile funding situation in the first half of 2021, FSAC
partners were forced to adjust the frequency of assistance to stretch available resources, such as providing assistance once every two
months instead of every month. For example, from January to May 2021, 8 million people received assistance every other month
resulting in increased food consumption gaps. From June to November 2021, increased levels of funding allowed partners to scale
up assistance, leaving 2.6 million people (20 percent of the FSAC target) still only supported every other month. However, funding
challenges in December 2021 resulted in a further decrease in assistance levels, resulting in 8 million people in 180 out of the 333
districts receiving just 49 percent of the FSAC recommended kilocalories. In total, 8.6 million received their entitlement as in-kind food
rations, 2.5 million people as commodity vouchers, and 1.5 million people as cash.
FSLA results show that on average humanitarian food assistance (HFA) was the main source of cereal for 15 percent of the population
in areas under IRG control and around 27 percent of the population in areas controlled by SBA. The importance of humanitarian food
assistance to alleviate Catastrophe food insecurity (IPC Phase 5) is found in the overall improvement seen in the 11 districts that were
projected as having populations in Phase 5 (Catastrophe) in the 2021 IPC analysis. Out of the 11 districts, only one remained with
population in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) in the 2022 current analysis (Al Maghrabah in Hajjah) indicating an overall improvement
following the increased level of assistance and attention of the humanitarian community towards enhanced monitoring of the
situation in these districts. However, as a consequence of the assumed decrease in funding levels, Al Maghrabah and an additional
five districts (Bart Al Anan in Al Jawf, Harf Sufyan, Al Ashah, As Sudah and As Sawd in Amran) are projected to again have populations
facing Catastrophe food insecurity.
Considering funding information available in early February 2022, the IPC analysis is based on the following assumptions for
humanitarian food assistance:
• For the current period January to May 2022, humanitarian assistance is expected to support 6.4 million beneficiaries across
Yemen with a ration of 1,650 kcal/person/day, which translated into approximately 50 percent of the estimated 13 million people
reached during the data collection period (September to December 2021).
• For the projection period June to December 2022, humanitarian food assistance is estimated to support 2.6 million beneficiaries
across Yemen with a ration of 1,650 kcal/person/day, translating into an overall reduction of 75 percent compared to end-2021.
Different from the assumptions on levels of humanitarian food assistance at the time of analysis, additional contributions were
confirmed at the beginning of March. As these increased resource confirmations came after the completion of the analysis, they
were not factored into the IPC results, but will be reflected in the IPC update scheduled in the second half of 2022 close monitoring
of the funding situation is necessary. In addition to the scale and coverage of humanitarian assistance, the analysis is also based on
the premise of a conducive environment for the delivery of humanitarian assistance in most of the districts.
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 13
Acute Malnutrition
Strengthen inter-sectoral programming: Address all forms of malnutrition in Yemen through a multisectoral approach with special
focus on prevention first and then treatment.
Prioritisation of most severe areas: Prioritise CMAM programme in zones where the prevalence of acute malnutrition is 10 percent
and above, and where the magnitude is high. Levels of acute malnutrition for the planning purpose should be identified using the
combined GAM criteria.
Conduct mass vaccination campaigns: Vaccination campaigns targeting children under five for Polio and targeting children under
15 years for measles should be conducted, prioritizing zones of low coverages. A plan for mass vitamin A supplementation to join
these campaigns should be put in place.
Promote sufficient child feeding practices: Assess and monitor the extent to which mothers of infants and young children have
access to the proper child feeding practices counselling, including identifying barriers and promoting improvement measures.
Strengthen community nutrition initiatives: Effectively improve the practices of child feeding at the far rural villages, focusing
specifically on children below two years.
Improve access of pregnant women to antenatal care: Better access to antenatal care including support to improve the nutrition
status, to achieve acceptable birth weight and successful breastfeeding after delivery are vital for improved nutritional status of
mothers and children in Yemen.
Strengthen monitoring systems: Support to nutrition surveillance system is important for improved early action for nutrition
programming. Furthermore, ensuring that SMART assessments are conducted at the peak lean season of June -September is key to
assure comparability and properly assess the severity of malnutrition in Yemen.
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 14
The Yemen IPC Technical Working Group (TWG) is made up of multiple agencies representing different governmental and non-
governmental sectors, including UN agencies, resource partners and international non-governmental agencies. It comprises IRG
and SBA-based authorities in Aden and Sana’a, ministries and other IPC partners, including UN agencies, iNGOs, local NGOs, the
Ministry of Population and Public Health (MoPHP), the Supreme Council for the Management and Coordination of Humanitarian
Affairs (SCMCHA), and the Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation (MoPIC).
The 2022 Yemen IPC analysis went through multiple layers of technical, logistical, administrative, procedural, coordination, analytical
and reviewing processes. With the overall management and coordination by FAO, the Yemen IPC TWG conducted a series of
consultative and technical meetings and implemented the different phases of the 2022 IPC analysis process. The IPC process started
early 2021 by preparing a detailed implementation plan and establishing timelines of activities including an inventory of available
information and determining the need for updated data required for the analysis. Gathering and reviewing of secondary data, as well
as monitoring of the status of different planned surveys and assessments were among the TWG’s tasks at the beginning of the entire
exercise. The IPC analysis covered all the 333 districts in 22 governorates of Yemen. The analysis covered two periods: current January
- May 2022 and projected June - December 2022.
The IPC analysis covered both Acute Food Insecurity and Acute Malnutrition and was conducted between 26 January and 23 February
2022. Prior to the analyses, AFI and AMN Level 1 certifying trainings took place in different stages between late November 2021 and
late January 2022. The four analyses were introduced by one to two days-long refresher trainings. During the refresher, the Excel
worksheets with predictive text were introduced and thereby used throughout the analysis. The analyses took place separately in
Aden for Internationally Recognized Government-controlled areas, and in Sana’a for Sana’a Based Authorities-controlled areas. Both
analyses were technically supported by several UN organizations (FAO, UNICEF, WFP, OCHA, WHO), Government ministry technical
officers, non-governmental organizations and key resource persons from the districts. The analysis started by forming an analysis team,
which were composed of multiple agencies representing different governmental and non-governmental organizations, including
UN agencies, resource partners, and international partners. A total of 22 groups were formed to work on governorate/districts level
meta-analysis. Each group included a combination of experts from the different sectors together with other experts familiar with the
socio-economic and other contributing factors in the governorates/districts.The facilitation was done by certified level three analyst
assisted by a number of level two analysts. The IPC Global Support Unit (GSU) was also present in both analyses. FAO coordinated the
analyses as well as obtaining all relevant and necessary clearances from government authorities.
In addition, a Risk of Famine analysis (RoF), coordinated and facilitated by GSU staff with the relevant analysis teams (Hajjah, Al Huda
ydah, Marib, Amran, Al Jawf ) was conducted in Sana’a between 10 and 22 February. Two districts under IRG control in Ad D ali’ and
Aden were also shortlisted but then discarded as they did not meet all criteria of eligibility for RoF analysis. The overall result of the
analysis is that Please refer to Annex 6 for detailed information on the methodology and results of IPC Yemen RoF.
A Famine Review Process took place between 21 February and 13 March. The activation of the Famine Review Committee (FRC) –
comprising a restrained group of international food security and nutrition experts - was agreed upon by the TWG and GSU to add
further layer of analysis to five vulnerable districts in Hajjah and Al Hudaydah governorates where key indicators were showing
results that were close to an area level Famine classification (IPC Phase 5). The main finding of the FRC is that while Catastrophe food
insecurity (IPC Phase 5) levels were likely to be present, the committee did not find evidence that suggested a Famine area level
classification. The FRC results are published in a separate report.
SOURCES
The IPC process brought together available food security information in a systematic manner to produce the best possible estimates
of the food security situation. Two main data work streams were used during the IPC analysis:
1. Food Security and Livelihoods Assessment (FSLA), conducted between September and December 2021 by WFP, FAO and
UNICEF in collaboration with SCMCHA in SBA areas and MoPIC in IRG controlled areas. With over 84,000 households interviewed
for food security and nearly 127,000 for MUAC, the FSLA data is representative at district level with approximately 260 households
interviewed for food security and 390 households for MUAC in 326 districts of Yemen. The FSLA provided the data that was
used to calculate all the main food security outcome indicators (Food Consumption Score, Livelihood-based Coping Strategy
indicator, Household Dietary Diversity Score, Household Hunger Score, reduced Coping Strategy Index), nutrition data (Global
Acute Malnutrition using MUAC data measurement) and contributing factors (shocks, WASH, indebtedness, livelihoods, income,
agriculture and livelihoods etc). Furthermore, qualitative data collection was conducted across all governorates in the areas
under IRG control to represent the different livelihood zones, which was used as contributing evidence during the IPC analysis.
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 16
2. SMART Nutrition and retrospective mortality surveys: UNICEF undertook a more robust form of nutrition assessments to support
data availability that is critical to improve planning, prioritization and targeting of nutrition response. I n collaboration with
the MOPHP in both Aden and Sana’a SMART surveys were planned to be conducted in all 22 governorates. However, due to
the vast nature and non-homogeneity of governorates, districts were divided into zones based on similarity in livelihood and
other characteristics. A total of 44 zones were established covering the entire country, and all the planned SMART surveys were
conducted between August 2021 and February 2022. The SMART survey was the primary source of evidence for the IPC analysis,
with MUAC data used as supporting evidence.
3. Additional, relevant information from numerous sources were used for triangulation and as key inputs to the analyses:
• FSAC humanitarian food assistance data
• Demographic information from OCHA and CSO
• Displacement information from CCCM, OCHA, IOM and SCMCHA;
• WFP market monitoring system;
• FAO FSNIS Market Data;
• Rainfall data from FAO and partner institutions;
• Morbidity and admissions updates from WHO, MoPHP and UNICEF;
• Conflict and displacement updates from NGOs and local institutions;
• COVID-19 figures from INGOs, WHO and MoPHP; and
• Other relevant information on contributing factors, food access, availability, utilization, and stability from assessments carried
out in 2021
many changed quickly after the analysis in both a positive and negative direction. What are the IPC, IPC Acute
Due to this, an update to the IPC analysis will be needed during the second half of Food Insecurity and IPC Acute
2022 to ensure that the projected results are still accurate. Malnutrition?
e. During the IPC analysis, it was found that there is a limited number of published, The IPC is a set of tools and procedures to
official government statistics to support the analysis. Furthermore, a wider variation classify the severity and characteristics of
of partners from FSAC would have been a value added for the discussions and acute food and nutrition crises as well as
chronic food insecurity based on interna-
analysis. tional standards. The IPC consists of four mu-
tually reinforcing functions, each with a set
of specific protocols (tools and procedures).
The core IPC parameters include consensus
building, convergence of evidence, account-
ability, transparency and comparability. The
IPC analysis aims at informing emergency
Acute Food Insecurity Phase name and description response as well as medium and long-term
food security policy and programming.
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5
None/Minimal Stressed Crisis Emergency Catastrophe/ For the IPC, Acute Food Insecurity and
Famine Acute Malnutrition are defined as any man-
ifestation of food insecurity or malnutrition
Households are able Households have Households either: Households either: Households have an found in a specified area at a specific point
to meet essential minimally adequate • have food • have large food extreme lack of food
food and non-food food consumption consumption gaps in time of a severity that threatens lives or
consumption gaps and/or other basic
needs without but are unable that are reflected by that are reflected needs even after livelihoods, or both, regardless of the caus-
engaging in atypical to afford some high or above-usual in very high acute full employment of es, context or duration. The IPC Acute Food
and unsustainable essential non-food acute malnutrition; malnutrition and coping strategies. Insecurity Classification is highly susceptible
strategies to access expenditures without or excess mortality; Starvation, death,
food and income. engaging in stress- • are marginally able to change and can occur and manifest in a
or destitution and
coping strategies. to meet minimum • are able to extremely critical population within a short amount of time,
food needs but mitigate large acute malnutrition as a result of sudden changes or shocks
only by depleting food consumption levels are evident. that negatively impact the determinants of
essential livelihood gaps but only
assets or through food insecurity. The IPC Acute Malnutrition
by employing For famine
crisis-coping emergency classification, area Classification’s focus is on identifying areas
strategies. livelihood strategies needs to have with a large proportion of children acutely
and asset liquidation extreme critical levels malnourished preferably by measurement
of acute malnutrition of Weight for Height Z-Score (WHZ) but also
and mortality.)
by Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC).
Hajjah
Amran Areas
Hajjah
not
with analysed
Amran inadequate evidence
Areas not analysed
Map Symbols
Amanat Al Asimah Marib Areas not
Map Symbols Amanatanalysed
Al Asimah
Urban settlement
Marib
Al Mahwit Al Mahwit
Map Symbols
classification
Sana'a
Urban settlement Sana'a
IDPs/other settlements
Raymah Dhamar
Urban settlement Al Bayda
Dhamar
classification
Red Sea Arabian Sea
IDPs/other settlements
Red Sea Arabian Sea
classification
Al Bayda
classification
classification
Ibb Ibb
IDPs/other settlements Al Dhale'e Al Dhale'e 1 - Acceptable
classification
Area receives significant
Taizz
Abyan
Socotra IDPs/other settlements Abyan
Socotra
1 - Minimal classification
Area receives significant
Taizz
2 - Alert
humanitarian food assistance
Lahj Lahj
Area receives
Eritrea
(accounted significant
for in Phase classification)
Gulf of Aden humanitarian food assistance
Eritrea
2 - Stressed
Aden Gulf of Aden
3 - Serious
Area receives significant
Aden
Ethiopia
humanitarian
Djibouti
food assistance Socotra (accounted
Ethiopia
for in Phase
Djibouti classification) Socotra
> 25% of households
(accounted for in Phase classification)
meet 25-50% 3 - Crisis humanitarian food assistance 4 - Critical
> 25% of households meet 25-50%
Key forofthe caloric
Map needs through assistance (accounted for in Phase classification)
> 25% of households meet 25-50%1 - Minimal 4 - Emergency Key forofthe caloric
Map needs through assistance 1 - Acceptable 5 - Extremely critical
of> caloric
25% ofneeds households throughmeet > 50%
assistance > 25% of households meet 25-50%
IPC Acute Food needs
of caloric Insecurity through assistance2 - Stressed 5 - Famine of> caloric
25% ofneeds households throughmeet > 50%
assistance 2 - Alert
Phase classification
IPC Acute Malnutrition
of caloric needs through assistance
based on MUAC
> 25%
Phase Classification of households meet > 50% Areas with inadequate
EvidenceofLevel 3 - Crisis Areas with inadequate evidence > 25%
Phase Classification of households meet > 50% 3 - Serious
caloric needs through assistance evidence
EvidenceofLevel caloric needs through assistance
Acceptable 4 - Emergency Areas not analysed 4 - Critical Areas not analysed
* Medium
Evidence Level * Medium Acceptable
** 5 - Famine Evidence Level 5 - Extremely critical
High
Acceptable
***
* ( ** Μedium Evidence Level for about 30 districts. Please Map Symbols
refer to the Limitations of Analysis section) ** High ( ** Μedium Evidence Level for about 30 districts. Please refer to the Limitations of Analysis section)
Map Symbols
Scarce
Mediumevidence due to limited or
** Areas with inadequate evidence Urban settlement * Acceptable
*** Phase classification Urban settlement
no
High
*** humanitarian access
classification ** Scarce
Mediumevidence due to limited or
no humanitarian
High access
based on MUAC
Areas with inadequate
classification
Scarce evidence due to limited or
1 - Minimal Areas not analysed *** Scarce
1 - Minimal
evidence due to limited or evidence IDPs/other settlements
Acute Food Insecurity Situation IDPs/other
no humanitarian access
Projected June -settlements
classification December 2022 Projected Acute Malnutrition Situation
no humanitarian access Areas not analysed
June - December classification 2022
21 - Stressed
Minimal Map Symbols 21 - Stressed
Minimal
Map Symbols Evidence Level
Urban settlementArea receives significant
32 -- Crisis
Stressed classification 32 -- Crisis
Stressed * Acceptable
humanitarian food assistance Urban settlement
Saudi Arabia
(accounted for in Phase classification)
Saudi Arabia ** Medium
43 - Emergency
Crisis IDPs/other settlements Oman 43 - Emergency
Crisis
classification
*** High Oman
* Acceptable
Areas not
withanalysed
Hajjah inadequate evidence > 25% of households meet 25-50%
Amran
Areas
Hajjah not
withanalysed
inadequate evidence
Amran
** Medium
Evidence Level *** High
of caloric needs through assistance
Areas
Map Symbols not analysed Marib
Amanat Al Asimah
Map SymbolsAreas not analysed Marib
Amanat Al Asimah Scarce evidence due
Al Mahwit
Sana'a * Acceptable Al Mahwit
to limited or no
> 25% of households
** meetMedium > 50%
Sana'a
** Medium
Socotra Socotra
1 - Minimal 2 - Alert
Area
Eritrea
classification
receives significant
Lahj
*** GulfHigh Area
Eritrea
classification
receives significant Lahj
* MediumAcceptable * Acceptable
Evidence Level 5 - Famine Evidence Level 5 - Extremely critical Map Symbols
** Map Symbols ** Medium
High Phase classification
***
* Acceptable *** High
Acceptable
Scarce
( ** Μedium Evidence Level for about 30 districts. Please refer to the Limitations of Analysis section)
Mediumevidence due to limited or
Areas with inadequate evidenceUrban settlement * Mediumevidence due to limited or
( ** Μedium Evidence Level for about 30 districts. Please refer to the LimitationsUrban
based on MUAC
settlement
of Analysis section)
** no humanitarian access
High
classification ** Scarce
no humanitarian
High access
Areas with inadequate
classification
*** Scarce evidence due to limited or
Areas not analysed
IDPs/other settlements *** Scarce evidence due to limited or evidence IDPs/other settlements
classification
no humanitarian access classification no humanitarian access Areas not analysed
Map Symbols
Map Symbols Evidence Level
Urban settlementArea receives significant
classification humanitarian food assistance Urban settlement
* Acceptable
(accounted for in Phase classification)
** Medium
IDPs/other settlements classification
*** High
classification > 25% of households meet 25-50% IDPs/other settlements
Scarce evidence due
to limited or no
of caloric needs through assistance classification
Area receives significant humanitarian access
humanitarian food assistance > 25% of households meet > 50% Evidence Level
(accounted for in Phase classification)of caloric needs through assistance * Acceptable
> 25% of households meet Level
25-50% ** Medium
Evidence *** High
of caloric needs through assistance Scarce evidence due
* Acceptable
to limited or no
> 25% of households
** meet > 50%
Medium humanitarian access
*** Highassistance
of caloric needs through
Scarce evidence due to limited or
Evidence Level no humanitarian access
* Acceptable
** Medium
*** High
Scarce evidence due to limited or
no humanitarian access
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 19
Abyan Rassd 30% 30% 30% 10% 0% 20% 30% 35% 15% 0%
Dar Sad 20% 25% 35% 20% 0% 15% 10% 40% 30% 5%
Ash Shaykh Othman 25% 35% 25% 15% 0% 25% 30% 25% 20% 0%
Critar - Sirah 25% 35% 30% 10% 0% 25% 35% 25% 15% 0%
Khur Maksar 25% 35% 30% 10% 0% 25% 35% 25% 15% 0%
Dhi Na’im 20% 30% 35% 15% 0% 20% 30% 30% 20% 0%
Al Bayda city 20% 30% 40% 10% 0% 20% 25% 45% 10% 0%
Radman Al Awad 20% 30% 30% 20% 0% 20% 25% 30% 25% 0%
Wald Rabi’ 20% 30% 35% 15% 0% 20% 25% 35% 20% 0%
Ash Sharyah 20% 30% 35% 15% 0% 20% 30% 30% 20% 0%
Ash Shuayb 25% 20% 40% 15% 0% 25% 15% 40% 20% 0%
Al Dhale’e Jahaf 20% 30% 30% 20% 0% 20% 20% 35% 25% 0%
Al Jawf Khabb wa
Khabb wa ash
ash Sha’af
Sha’af 10%
10% 25%
25% 40%
40% 25%
25% 0%
0% 10%
10% 15%
15% 40%
40% 30%
30% 5%
5%
Al Jawf Al Humaydat
Humaydat 20% 25% 40% 15% 0% 20% 20% 40% 20% 0%
Al 20% 25% 40% 15% 0% 20% 20% 40% 20% 0%
Al Matammah
Al Matammah 15%
15% 20%
20% 45%
45% 20%
20% 0%
0% 15%
15% 20%
20% 40%
40% 25%
25% 0%
0%
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 21
Al Jawf Kharab Al Marashi 10% 15% 50% 25% 0% 10% 10% 50% 30% 0%
Shibam Kawkaban 20% 25% 40% 15% 0% 15% 20% 45% 20% 0%
Al Mahwait City 15% 20% 45% 20% 0% 15% 15% 45% 25% 0%
Old city 20% 35% 35% 10% 0% 20% 30% 35% 15% 0%
Habur Zulaymah 15% 20% 40% 25% 0% 10% 15% 40% 30% 5%
Dhi Bin 15% 15% 45% 25% 0% 15% 10% 45% 30% 0%
Kharif 10% 15% 55% 20% 0% 10% 10% 60% 20% 0%
Raydah 20% 25% 40% 15% 0% 20% 20% 40% 20% 0%
Jabal Iyal Yazid 15% 20% 45% 20% 0% 15% 15% 45% 25% 0%
Amran
As Sudah 15% 15% 40% 30% 0% 10% 10% 40% 35% 5%
As Sawd 20% 15% 35% 30% 0% 10% 10% 40% 35% 5%
Amran 10% 20% 50% 20% 0% 10% 15% 50% 25% 0%
Maswar 20% 25% 35% 20% 0% 15% 20% 40% 25% 0%
Thula 25% 30% 35% 10% 0% 20% 25% 35% 20% 0%
Iyal Surayh 20% 30% 40% 10% 0% 20% 25% 40% 15% 0%
Khamir 15% 20% 45% 20% 0% 15% 15% 50% 20% 0%
Bani Suraim 25% 30% 35% 10% 0% 25% 20% 40% 15% 0%
Al Hada 20% 25% 45% 10% 0% 20% 20% 45% 15% 0%
Jahran 25% 30% 35% 10% 0% 25% 25% 35% 15% 0%
Jabal Ash sharq 10% 15% 50% 25% 0% 10% 10% 50% 30% 0%
Maghirib Ans 25% 30% 35% 10% 0% 25% 25% 30% 20% 0%
Utmah 15% 25% 40% 20% 0% 15% 20% 40% 25% 0%
Wusab Al Ali 15% 20% 45% 20% 0% 15% 20% 40% 25% 0%
Dhamar
Wusab As Safil 10% 15% 50% 25% 0% 10% 15% 40% 35% 0%
Dhamar City 10% 20% 40% 30% 0% 10% 15% 40% 35% 0%
Mayfa’at Anss 20% 25% 45% 10% 0% 20% 20% 45% 15% 0%
Anss 10% 15% 55% 20% 0% 10% 15% 55% 20% 0%
Dawran Aness 20% 30% 35% 15% 0% 20% 25% 35% 20% 0%
Hadramaut Al Abr 25% 35% 25% 15% 0% 20% 25% 30% 25% 0%
Al Qatn 40% 40% 20% 0% 0% 35% 35% 25% 5% 0%
Shibam 40% 40% 15% 5% 0% 40% 35% 20% 5% 0%
Sah 50% 30% 20% 0% 0% 40% 35% 20% 5% 0%
Sayun 40% 35% 25% 0% 0% 35% 35% 25% 5% 0%
Tarim 40% 35% 20% 5% 0% 35% 35% 25% 5% 0%
As Sawm 35% 35% 25% 5% 0% 35% 25% 30% 10% 0%
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 23
Ghayl bin Yamin 25% 20% 35% 20% 0% 25% 20% 30% 25% 0%
Kuhlan Ash Sharaf 10% 15% 45% 30% 0% 10% 10% 45% 35% 0%
Aflah Ash Shawm 20% 25% 40% 15% 0% 20% 20% 40% 20% 0%
Khayran Al Muharraq 10% 15% 50% 25% 0% 10% 10% 50% 30% 0%
Aflah Al Yaman 20% 25% 40% 15% 0% 15% 20% 45% 20% 0%
Kuhlan Affar 20% 25% 40% 15% 0% 20% 20% 40% 20% 0%
Sharas 20% 25% 45% 10% 0% 20% 20% 45% 15% 0%
Mabyan 15% 20% 45% 20% 0% 15% 15% 45% 25% 0%
Ash Shahil 15% 25% 45% 15% 0% 15% 20% 50% 15% 0%
Ku’aydinah 5% 15% 50% 30% 0% 5% 10% 50% 35% 0%
Wadhrah 5% 15% 55% 25% 0% 5% 10% 55% 30% 0%
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 24
Ash Shaghadirah 15% 25% 45% 15% 0% 15% 20% 40% 25% 0%
Bani Al Awam 15% 25% 40% 20% 0% 15% 20% 40% 25% 0%
Hajjah
Hajjah City 15% 20% 40% 25% 0% 15% 15% 40% 30% 0%
Hajjah 10% 15% 50% 25% 0% 10% 10% 50% 30% 0%
Washhah 10% 20% 55% 15% 0% 10% 15% 50% 25% 0%
Qarah 10% 20% 50% 20% 0% 10% 15% 50% 25% 0%
Al Qafr 20% 35% 25% 20% 0% 20% 30% 30% 20% 0%
Ash Sha’ir 20% 30% 40% 10% 0% 20% 25% 40% 15% 0%
Hazm Al Udayn 20% 25% 35% 20% 0% 20% 20% 35% 25% 0%
Far Al Udayn 20% 25% 35% 20% 0% 20% 20% 35% 25% 0%
Ibb
Al Udayn 20% 25% 40% 15% 0% 20% 25% 35% 20% 0%
Dhi As Sufal 20% 35% 25% 20% 0% 20% 25% 30% 25% 0%
Habil Jabr 30% 35% 25% 10% 0% 30% 35% 20% 15% 0%
Lahj Halmin 25% 35% 30% 10% 0% 25% 30% 30% 15% 0%
Tur Al Bahah 35% 20% 25% 20% 0% 35% 15% 30% 20% 0%
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 25
Harib al Qaramish 15% 25% 40% 20% 0% 15% 20% 40% 25% 0%
Marib City 20% 30% 40% 10% 0% 15% 20% 45% 20% 0%
Jabal Murad 15% 25% 40% 20% 0% 15% 20% 40% 25% 0%
Bilad At Ta’am 15% 25% 45% 15% 0% 15% 20% 45% 20% 0%
Kitaf wa Al Boqe’e 15% 30% 45% 10% 0% 15% 25% 45% 15% 0%
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 26
Sa’ada Sa’adah 10% 20% 45% 25% 0% 10% 15% 50% 25% 0%
Bani Hushaysh 25% 35% 30% 10% 0% 25% 30% 30% 15% 0%
Bilad Ar Rus 20% 25% 40% 15% 0% 20% 25% 35% 20% 0%
Bani Matar 15% 25% 45% 15% 0% 15% 20% 45% 20% 0%
Al Haymah Ad
20% 30% 40% 10% 0% 20% 25% 35% 20% 0%
Dakhiliyah
Sana’a
Al Haymah
20% 30% 40% 10% 0% 20% 20% 40% 20% 0%
Al Kharijiyah
Manakhah 15% 30% 35% 20% 0% 15% 25% 35% 25% 0%
Bani Dhabyan 10% 20% 40% 30% 0% 10% 15% 35% 35% 5%
Markhah Al Olya 25% 20% 30% 25% 0% 15% 20% 35% 30% 0%
Shabwah Markhah As Sufla 20% 25% 40% 15% 0% 20% 20% 40% 20% 0%
Shara’b As Salam 10% 25% 50% 15% 0% 10% 20% 50% 20% 0%
Shara’b Ar Rawnah 15% 25% 35% 25% 0% 15% 20% 35% 30% 0%
Dimnat Khadir 15% 35% 35% 15% 0% 15% 30% 30% 25% 0%
Taizz Mawza 20% 35% 30% 15% 0% 20% 30% 30% 20% 0%
Jabal Habashi 20% 30% 30% 20% 0% 20% 25% 30% 25% 0%
Mashrah Wa Hadnan 10% 45% 30% 15% 0% 10% 45% 25% 20% 0%
Sabir Al Mawadim 20% 35% 30% 15% 0% 20% 35% 25% 20% 0%
Ash Shamayatayn 30% 40% 20% 10% 0% 30% 40% 15% 15% 0%
Grand Total 5,784,500 8,557,000 11,715,000 5,619,500 31,000 5,470,000 7,218,500 11,712,000 7,140,500 161,000
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 28
Introduction: A Risk of Famine (RoF)2 analysis was conducted in Yemen between 10 February and 22 February and covered both
IRG and SBA controlled areas. The opportunity to conduct such analysis was discussed with, and agreed upon by GSU and senior
managers from the main IPC partners in Yemen (FAO, FEWSNET, FSAC, WFP and UNICEF) as well as representatives from resource
partners on 4 February. It was then introduced to institutional representatives in IRG and SBA during the early stages of the IPC
analysis securing their agreement to proceed. The RoF methodology was presented in plenary in Sana’a and Aden on 6-7 February.
The analysis teams also agreed to proceed.
The IPC RoF was conducted in parallel to the last stages of the IPC analysis in Aden and Sana’a with the objective to detect districts
at risk of famine in the projection period June-December 2022, in case a worst-case scenario with reasonable chances to happen
would materialize.
Methodology: The RoF was conducted by selected members of the analysis teams from governorates including districts shortlisted
for this analysis (mainly WFP, FSAC, FAO, WHO), and by nutritionists (mainly WFP and UNICEF). The analysis focused only on the
projection period June-December 2022. The analysis was facilitated by GSU staff with previous experience of RoF analyses. The
presence of GSU was instrumental to ensure adequate harmonization of the analysis process during the main stages listed below:
i. Identification of first shortlisted districts potentially eligible for RoF;
ii. Selection of districts eligible for RoF analysis;
iii. RoF analysis in selected districts.
The following criteria helped to shortlist districts (1st step): presence of populations in IPC Phase 5 in the current or projection period;
and/or ongoing active conflict in proximity or within the districts; and/or high volatility of key drivers/contributing factors of food
insecurity from the assumptions for the most likely scenario. Twenty-one districts were shortlisted by the GSU and analysis teams.
After looking carefully at the worksheets and discussing among the RoF analysis teams, only 17 were retained as eligible (2nd step).
The actual RoF analysis (step 3), was heavily influenced by considerations of conflict patterns, humanitarian food assistance,
population’s mobility and livelihoods. The element of conflict is predominant in discussions around famine in Yemen. The immediate
and indirect impact on population displacement; humanitarian accessibility by actors and beneficiaries; livelihoods; functionality of
market, seaports, supply chains and food systems; cost of transport of basic commodities; and functionality of nutrition and health
services was duly assessed during the RoF analysis. These factors were instrumental to detect if the collapse of one or multiple
assumptions from the most likely scenario would lead to a risk of famine in a set worst-case scenario for the 17 districts.
Disclaimer: The RoF analysis was completed before the onset of the Ukrainian crisis, and does not consider its likely impact on
food prices in the most likely and worst case scenarios. Yemen is highly dependent on imports of main commodities from the
international market, including wheat grains and flour, for which Ukraine and Russia are among the main suppliers globally. The
analysis does not consider the likely increase of the prices of main commodities in the wholesale and retail markets of Yemen. A
close, continuous monitoring of price trends in the main markets of Yemen must be ensured to detect further erosion of Yemenis’
purchasing power, including especially in those markets supplying people in the vulnerable districts included in the RoF analysis.
In particular, districts with comparatively lower dependency on HFA and higher reliance on markets, such as the urban district of Al
Hudaydah city (especially Al Hali) should be under close watch.
Results: The GSU facilitated the RoF analyses with the analysis teams in 19 districts in SBA controlled areas and two districts in
IRG areas. Out of the 21 districts initially shortlisted, 17 were considered eligible for an RoF, while the other four districts (initially
shortlisted) did not show the minimum levels of severity required to run a RoF analysis, after further reflection. Two districts were
eventually identified as at risk of famine within the projection period. These districts are: Abs and Hayran (from Hajjah governorate).
Below, a summary table of results by district.
√*: District at Risk of Famine under assumptions linked to a worst-case scenario directly extrapolated from food security, nutrition and
mortality indicators collected in neighboring Abs district, and in case the district population is not inferior to 10,000 people despite
the escalation in conflict, which is a pivotal hypothesis to the worst-case scenario.
×*: Districts not classified in the main analysis due to unavailability of data. More info required to ascertain if the severity of the
situation warrants a Risk of Famine.
×**: District not at Risk of Famine within the projection period (Jun-Dec 2022), but likely to shift into famine should a worst-case
scenario apply for a protracted period of time beyond the projection period.
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 39
A succinct summary of the main findings, disaggregated by governorate, is presented below. For more information, the RoF
worksheets can be shared upon request.
1. Hajjah governorate
Eight districts from Hajjah were promoted by the analysis team for the RoF analysis for the projection period (June-December 2022).
Four of them (Abs, Haradh, Hayran and Midi) experience ongoing conflict in vast parts of the districts at the time of writing. While
the most likely scenario estimates status quo conditions in terms of conflict coverage and intensity, the realistic worst-case scenario
depicts an escalation in conflict, spreading to southern sub-districts of Abs where IDP camp sites are currently located, and to the
majority of territories in Midi, Haradh and Hayran. The levels of HFA, already reduced by 75 percent compared to the last quarter of 2021
as per a general assumption, would be further constrained due to restrained access. The impact on livelihoods of host communities
would be devastating, as shown in areas currently affected. It is assumed that many IDPs would move further southwards (e.g. to
As’Zurah district of Al Hudaydah governorate). However, a considerable segment of host communities and IDPs would remain in Abs,
and be exposed to long months of hardship which would strain their resilience, coping capacity, and ultimately food consumption.
GAM prevalence (WHZ from SMART) was 25.2 percent in January in Abs, with the upper limit of confidence interval close to 30
percent prevalence. Crude death rate is 0.40 (IPC AMN Phase 1) but with the upper limit of the CI at 0.62 (IPC AMN Phase 3). In
the worst case scenario of conflict spreading, the health system might collapse, nutrition, wash and health programmes will face
access issues and the mortality is likely to reach famine thresholds. Notwithstanding the complexity of causal factors associated with
GAM and mortality and considering the escalation of conflict and subsequent impossibility to supply stranded people, it is believed
that population in the district of Abs, and Hayran would face Risk of Famine under the worst-case scenario. While in Abs such a
statement is made with no caveats, it is important to notice that the RoF conclusion for the district of Hayran is subject to a number of
assumptions contingent on the situation in the three districts being similar to Abs in terms of food insecurity, nutrition and mortality.
For Hayran, assumptions of severity in a worst-case scenario are consequently based on the expected evolution of vulnerability in
Abs, while some differences specific to the three districts may arise. The RoF is valid only in areas with a population of at least 10,000
people per district. Quantifying the level of displacement that a further escalation of conflict could trigger is difficult, even more so
in areas where the population basis is extremely low to start with. Considering, however, that: i.e the team indicated the presence of
people in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) under the most likely scenario in Hayran; ii. the conclusion of the AMN analysis for the projection
period which classified in the IPC Phase 5 (Extremely Critical) of the AMN analysis; and iii. the likely deterioration due to the effect of
drivers under a worst-case scenario, the team concluded that a Risk of Famine exists for Hayran in the projection period.
A RoF does not subsist in the other six districts of Hajjah, namely Al Maghrabah, Bakil Al Mir, Mustabam, Midi, Harad and Aslem. The
main differences compared to the districts above relate to the prospects of conflict, with no conflict expected in the most likely and
worst-case scenario assumptions. As the only exception, part of Mustaba district is expected to face direct conflict. Overall, an influx
of IDPs (higher than in the most likely scenario) is expected in Bakil Al Mir, Aslem and Mustaba. In case the HFA cuts are confirmed,
host communities and IDPs would still find alternative routes to the main distribution points outside the districts and far from the
frontline. Mortality and nutrition rates are also less severe than in the four districts above, with less likely prospects to overcome
famine thresholds. The lack of data from the districts of Haradh and Midi, combined with the limited information on the population
actually present in the area at the moment of analysis makes it complex to depict likely and worst-case scenarios for the projection.
For Midi and Harad more information are needed to ascertain the risk of famine, especially in light of the limited population expected,
and considering that the two districts were not classified in the main AFI/AMN IPC analysis due to scarcity of information.
2. Al Hudaydah
None of the five districts analysed were found to be at RoF in the projection period. Al Hudaydah has been a theatre of conflict for the
past 3 years. The main conflict spread from Hudaydah city to Ad Dhuraymi, where fighting lasted for over two years, before spreading
southwards to districts bordering with Taizz and Ibb governorates, namely At Tuhayta, Al Khawk, Hays, Jabal Ras. The current frontline
spreads across these districts. The realistic, worst-case scenario depicts a return of conflict northwards reaching the whole districts of
At Tuhayta, Ad Dhuraymi, and Hudeydah city (Al Hali and Al Hawak districts). These four districts were assessed against RoF together
with As’Zurah district in the north-eastern lowland part of Hudeydah, which is hosting waves of IDPs from the neighboring district
of Abs.
The population of Al Hali and Al Hawak – the two vulnerable, urban districts of Hudaydah city - depend mainly on non-agricultural
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 40
casual labour such as daily labour within the seaport. The low dynamism of the port due to insecurity and restrictions imposed on
commercial trade limit access to income, and will remain restrained in the most likely scenario. The worst-case scenario, though,
considers full closure of the seaport due to conflict. Reliance on HFA is extremely low at presence and will be negligible both in most
likely and worst-case scenario, especially if the city is besieged by conflict. Given the distance from the current frontline, it is believed
that most urban dwellers would have sufficient time to leave before conflict spread in the city. However, past experiences show that if
the conflict erupts in Hudaydah it is going to be difficult for the majority of people to leave. In early 2022, nutrition data show serious
yet comparatively lower levels of GAM prevalence (20.0 percent) compared to other areas in the governorate. Mortality is also the
lowest of all areas covered by the SMART 2022 (CDR 0.09, U5DR 0.29), except for the districts in Al Jawf, Al Baydah, Ibb, and Sana’a
which recorded lower levels. In the conflict scenario, the population in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) are
likely to increase from the expected 5 percent in the projection period. Under the worst- case scenario depicted, Al Hali and Al Hawak
will not face a Risk of Famine in the projected period. In this scenario, conflict has limited duration and/or breaks out during the
projection period, the expected deterioration of the situation will not warrant a RoF conclusion. Especially, mortality rates would not
spike upwards to Famine levels in such a short period. Under different assumptions this outcome may change. If conflict breaks out
earlier and/or lasts for more than 6 months, with a siege of Al Hali and/or Al Hawak, there is a reasonable chance that food security,
nutrition and mortality outcomes reach famine levels, after the end of the projection period (December 2022).
The rural districts in southern Al Hudaydah governorate (At Tuhayta, Ad Durahimy), are not at Risk of Famine in the projected
period. Even in the worst-case scenario – whereby conflict would resume and expand in the totality of districts – populations would
be free to move out northwards and eastwards. Food security would likely deteriorate further during the military advancements.
However, no significant differences in food availability arise between the most likely scenario and the worst-case scenario. Fishermen
cannot leave ashore due to insecurity, and large farmlands are covered in landmines. HFA assistance would further deteriorate due to
limited access. However, freedom of movement outside these districts would likely counterbalance these effects. Access to markets
and income would deteriorate. Most likely, the remaining population in these districts in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) would reach
20 percent . However, the comparatively low GAM prevalence (17 percent) and CDR (0.12) advise against stating that these two
districts are at risk of famine.
Finally, As’ Zurah district in northern lowland (north east of Hudaydah city), which borders with Abs (Hajjah governorate), is not at risk
of famine in the projection period. As Zurah hosts over 11,000 IDPs coming from conflict affected district of Abs. Data collected by
the SMART confirms extremely high prevalence of malnutrition (26.2 percent) but relatively low CDR (0.23). In the most likely scenario,
As Zurah will remain peaceful, but will continue receiving new waves of IDPs. No significant HFA levels are expected to reach As-
Zurah. In the worst-case scenario, conflict will expand southwards from Abs into As’Zurah, If conflict spreads, access to health services
becomes very problematic. Some malnutrition intervention (plumpynut) is available by Islamic Relief but there are no care facilities.
GAM rate is likely to go above 30 percent in the conflict scenario. Mortality rates are likely to increase, but not to reach famine levels
even in case of conflict. As’Zurah is a productive lowland which offers some opportunities even in enclaved parts should conflict
erupt. Also, IDPs and host communities would be free to leave the district.
3. Amran
The three districts of Amran governorate considered eligible for RoF analysis are Harf Sufyan, Aswdah, and Asswad. These districts
were selected due to presence of population in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) in the projection period, and relative proximity to districts
facing active conflict, mainly in Hajjah. While influx of IDPs is somewhat problematic, food insecurity seems to have a more structural
nature not necessarily related to the immediate acute drivers.
The most likely scenario and the worst-case scenario do not differ significantly, as no conflict is expected in a worst-case scenario, nor
impediments to humanitarian accessibility. Also, the health system is not expected to deteriorate or be affected by any calamities.
GAM prevalence is likely to deteriorate from the 9.5 percent WHZ (SMART). Similarly, mortality rates might deteriorate from 0.16 CDR.
However, no significant divergence from the expected deterioration of GAM and mortality in the most likely scenario is expected.
With the overstretched food security situation in the district and the high vulnerability of the population due to chronic causes and
exhausion of their coping strategies and increasing burden of the IDPs, the food security situation is likely to deteriorate but not to
the extent to reach 20 percent as the humanitarian access is not completely disrupted.
In conclusion, the district of Harf Sufyan, Aswdah, and Asswad are estimated not to face a Risk of Famine in the projection period
even in a worst-case scenario with realistic chances of happening.
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 41
4. Marib
The only district in Marib eligible for RoF analysis is Majzar. Majzar has high levels of food insecurity with some populations in IPC
Phase 5 (Catastrophe) in the projection period. At present, and according to the most likely scenario, Majzar is not a theatre of conflict.
In the worst case scenario outlined, though, conflict is likely to expand to part of the district. Humanitarian access will be only partially
constrained, and overall it is expected that the planned HFA (16 percent of beneficiaries) will continue being deployed to cover the
stringent needs of affected population and mainly new IDPs.
Agricultural and non-agriculture livelihood activities may be disrupted in areas affected by the conflict, pushing people to higher
adoption of coping mechanisms. People who remain in conflict affected areas will totally rely on their stocks from the August harvest,
and livestock, as well as on community safety nets. However, most people will move due to insecurity and lack of coping towards
west in camps. This freedom of movement, associated with low GAM prevalence (7.9 percent WHZ, SMART) and mortality (0.27 CDR
and 0.21 U5DR) suggests that the district of Majzar would not warrant a Risk of Famine even in case of the depicted worst case
scenario materialized.
5. Al Jawf
After discussions between the GSU and Al Jawf analysis team, it was agreed that the two districts shortlisted from this governorate
- Al Zabir and Al Khalaq – do not have the sufficient requisites of severity, nor volatility of main food security drivers to sustain a RoF
analysis. They do not expect to face conflict in the projection period, nor will conflict likely expand in the worst-case scenario. No
major additional IDP influx is expected to take place. No major divergence from most likely and realistic worst case scenarios are
observed. Therefore, the team agreed not to proceed with a RoF analysis.
The worksheets have been filled for due diligence but do not imply that a RoF was conducted in these districts.
Al Azariq shows higher levels of severity than Dar Saad, with 25 percent people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) for the current (no people
in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe), and 35 percent in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) in the projection plus 5 percent in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe).
However, the assumptions for the most likely scenario in the June-December 2022 projection show a gloomy picture characterised
by escalating conflict, displacement, a 75 percent cut in HFA, and market constraints. An alternative, deteriorating scenario could not
show major further deterioration.
Dar Saad was also cleared as not eligible for the RoF analysis, as the food insecurity levels are not as high as required to see a drastic
deterioration into the highest phase even in a worst-case scenario. Similarly to Al Azariq, the most likely scenario already factors in
high inflation, influx of IDPs. The expansion of conflict from the west coast was not considered likely.