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IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND

YEMEN ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS


JANUARY - DECEMBER 2022
Published on August 3, 2022

ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY PROJECTED ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ACUTE MALNUTRITION


(JAN - MAY 2022) (JUN - DEC 2022) (JAN -SEP 2022)
31,000 People 161,000 People
Phase 5 Phase 5 538,000
in Catastrophe in Catastrophe Severe Acute
17.4M 19M 7,140,500 People Malnutrition (SAM)

54% of the population


Phase 4
5,619,500 People
in Emergency 60% of the population
Phase 4
in Emergency 2,165,000 1,627,000
11,712,000 Moderate Acute
11,715,000 Phase 3 Malnutrition (MAM)
People facing high Phase 3 People facing high People in Crisis the number of 6-59 1 - Minimal
People in Crisis
acute food insecurity acute food insecurity months children 2 - Stressed
7,218,500
(IPC Phase 3 or
Phase 2
8,557,000 (IPC Phase 3 or Phase 2
People Stressed acutely malnourished 1.3 Μ13 -- Minimal
Crisis
above) People Stressed above) Pregnant or 2 - Stressed
IN NEED OF 4 - Emergency
lactating women
5,470,000 3 - Crisis
5,784,500 TREATMENT
IN NEED OF URGENT IN NEED OF URGENT Phase 1 People in food 5 - Famine
acutely malnourished
Phase 1 People in food 4 - Emergency
ACTION ACTION IN NEED OF
security security Areas with inadequate
TREATMENT 5 - Famine
Areas
Areas not
withanalysed
inadequate
Overview Acute Food Insecurity Projection Map Symbols
Areas not analysed
June - December 2022 Urban settlement
Map Symbols
classification
Food insecurity and malnutrition in Yemen have deteriorated further
in 2022 compared to 2021, driven mainly by the consequences of the Urban settlement
IDPs/other settlements
Saudi Arabia classification
protracted conflict. Oman
IDPs/other settlements
Area receives significant
classification
Approximately 2.2 million children aged 6 to 59 months are projected Sa'ada humanitarian food assistanc
Al Maharah
(accounted for in Phase
Area receives classificatio
significant
to suffer from acute malnutrition over the course of the year, including Al Jawf Hadramaut

Amran humanitarian
> 25% offood assistanc
households m
538,000 facing severe acute malnutrition. An additional 1.3 million cases
Hajjah

(accounted for in Phase


of caloric needsclassificatio
through
Amanat Al Asimah

of pregnant and lactating women are also projected over the year. At the
Marib
Al Mahwit
Sana'a >>25%
25%ofofhouseholds
householdsmm
ofofcaloric
caloricneeds
needsthrough
throug
same time, a total of 17.4 million people or 54 percent of the population
Al Hudaydah Shabwah
Raymah Dhamar
Red Sea Arabian Sea
Al Bayda
> 25% of households m
faced high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 and above) from January to Ibb
Al Dhale'e EvidenceofLevel
caloric needs throug
Abyan

May 2022, with 31,000 people classified in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe), 5.6 Taizz
1 - Minimal 5 - Famine
Socotra
* Acceptable
Lahj
Evidence
** Medium Level
million (18 percent) in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 11.7 million people Eritrea
Aden
2 - Stressed Areas with inadequate
Gulf of Aden

*** High
(37 percent) in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). Between June and December 2022, the
Ethiopia
Djibouti
evidence * SocotraAcceptable
Scarce evidence due to limi
LevelMedium
1 - Minimal 13 --5Minimal
- Famine
Crisis 5Areas not analysed ( ** Μedium Evidence**
- Famine no forhumanitarian
about 30 access
to the High
districts. Please refer***
number of people likely to experience high levels of acute food insecurity Limitations of
2 - Stressed 24 --Areas with inadequate
Emergency
Stressed Areas with inadequateAnalysis section) Scarce evidence due to limi
(IPC Phase 3 or above) is estimated to increase to 19 million (60 percent evidence evidence no humanitarian access
3 - Crisis 3 - Areas
Crisis not analysed Areas not analysed
of the total population). Out of these, 11.7 million people are estimated
to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), 7.1 million in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), and Key Drivers
4 - Emergency 4 - Emergency

the number of those in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) will likely increase to


Conflict: Conflict remains the primary driver of acute food
161,000.
insecurity and malnutrition in Yemen. Port restrictions have led
The area-level classification is also expected to deteriorate dramatically to severe fuel shortages and a further increase in the price of
in the projection period for both acute food insecurity and acute food and essential non-food items. Furthermore, the conflict
malnutrition. A significant number of districts are expected to move to has led to increased displacement and disruption of public
services.
higher IPC Phases as humanitarian food assistance levels are expected
to decrease substantially, and food prices will continue on an upward Economic decline: The highly volatile exchange rate has led
trajectory. Similarly, conflict is expected to continue and escalate in certain the YER to depreciate, hollowing out household purchasing
areas, per the assumptions laid out for Jun-Dec 2022. During the projection power and driving price increases for food and essential non-
period, 86 districts were classified in high acute food insecurity, of which food items. The Ukraine-Russia conflict leads to further import
82 shifted from IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) to IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency). Overall, and price shocks, given that more than 40 percent of Yemen’s
total imports of cereal are from these countries.
during the current analysis, the 151 districts classified in IPC AFI Phase 4
(Emergency) increased to 233 districts in the projection period. Similarly, Low humanitarian food assistance: In the context of Yemen,
for acute malnutrition, 70 districts’ classification shifts from IPC AMN Phase acute food insecurity and malnutrition are highly sensitive to
3 (Serious) to IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical), making up 108 districts, and 66 humanitarian funding and access. During the current analysis
districts move from Alert (IPC Phase 2) to Serious (IPC Phase 3), making up period (Jan-May), assistance levels are expected to cover 50%
of the estimated beneficiary. Starting June, planned assistance
193 districts, while two districts in Hajjah governorate were not classified
is expected to reduce further to 25% of the targeted caseload.
due to inadequate information.
These assumptions are based on funding estimates available at
The most vulnerable districts are in Hajjah and Al Hudaydah, where food the time of analysis.
insecurity and acute malnutrition converge to extremely high levels. For Reduced access to basic services: Limited access to
acute malnutrition, the WHZ score in these governorates, a measure of health, nutrition, and WASH services due to conflict and low
wasting for children under five years, ranges from 17 percent to 26 percent, immunization coverage leading to high morbidity. This,
well above the 15 percent WHO emergency threshold, while for acute along with poor child-feeding practices, leads to high acute
food insecurity, these two governorates have the highest prevalence with malnutrition levels.
over 65 percent of the population in IPC Phase 3 and above in the current Morbidity: High prevalence of diseases (diarrhoea, malaria
and reaching over 70 percent in the projection. and Acute Respiratory Infections)
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 2

ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY SITUATION OVERVIEW AND KEY DRIVERS


(JANUARY - MAY 2022)
Overview and Trends
The population in need of assistance is estimated to reach 17.4 million from January-May 2022, a 7 percent increase from the
estimated needs in 2021 (16.2 million). Assuming further reduction of humanitarian assistance, escalation in conflict and continued
deterioration of the economic situation, the population in need of humanitarian assistance is projected to increase further to 19
million starting June, 19 percent higher than estimated needs in 2021.
Nearly half of all districts are classified to be in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) during January-May 2022 (151 out of 333 districts), increasing
to 70 percent during June-December (233 out of 333 districts). According to the IPC projection classification, 19 percent of all districts
will move to a more severe phase, while 81 percent will remain in the same phase. In addition, 53 of the districts in IPC Phase 3
(Crisis) from June-December 2022 have at least 15 percent of their population in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), meaning that even small
additional shocks can make the district change from IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) to IPC Phase 4 (Emergency).
Furthermore, three districts were classified to have about 31,000 people experiencing Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) from January–May
2022, which is projected to increase to about 161,000 people in 23 districts from June-December 2022. This represents more than a
three-fold increase since 2021 when 11 districts and 47,000 people were classified in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe).

The increase in extreme food insecurity led to the deployment of two additional complimentary analysis tools/mechanisms to further
review the situation in locations with the most concerning levels of acute food security outcomes:
• Famine Review Committee (FRC): This committee was activated due to alerting severity levels in five districts that could indicate
a likelihood of famine, particularly the district of Abs in Hajjah.
• The Risk of Famine (ROF) analysis: This additional analysis was conducted to complement the standard IPC analysis in 15 districts
with populations in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe). The Risk of Famine analysis considers the impact of shocks deemed unlikely, yet
possible in the worst-case scenario. In this instance, conflict leading to besiegement was considered.

Geographic distribution of needs


The share of the population in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or above is highest in the governorates of Al Hudaydah, Raymah, Hajjah, Sa’ada and
Al Jawf during both the current and projection periods. In terms of actual numbers, population-dense governorates facing conflict
and increased displacement, such as Al Hudaydah, Hajjah, Taizz and Sana’a City, host about half of the total population in need of
assistance, during both the current and projection periods.
Aden, specifically Dar Sad district, which has several highly vulnerable IDPs living in camps, and Al Dhale’e governorate are the
worst-off projected to have populations in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) from June-December 2022. Marib governorate is also facing a
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 3

dire situation, with all districts projected to be in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) during the same period (June-December 2022) due to a
combination of drivers including conflict, displacement and economic hardship. In the current and projected analyses, Taizz has the
highest number of people facing critical acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 4).
Hajjah is facing the worst situation, with 31,000 in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) in the Current period (January-May 2022), and it is
projected to reach 49,000 from June-December 2022. In addition, Al Hudaydah, Sana’a City, Amran, Al Jawf, Raymah, Al Mahwit, and
Sana’a are projected to have populations in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in the period June-December 2022.

Acute Malnutrition
The acute malnutrition situation is expected to deteriorate further during the projected period of June -September 2022 because of
worsening food security aggravated by conflict, high morbidity, outbreaks of diarrhoea and other illness, poor child diets (in terms of
both quality and quantity), and limited sub-optimal public health environment. Due to this, 91 percent of districts in Yemen will be in
IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious) and above. Two districts (Abs and Hayran) are projected to be at Extremely Critical levels (IPC AMN phase
5), while 108 districts (33 percent) will be Critical (IPC AMN Phase 4), 193 districts (33 percent) will be Serious (IPC AMN Phase 3) and 28
districts (8 percent) in Alert (IPC AMN Phase 2). Two districts (Midi and Haradh)
were not classified due to lack of data.
Based on the 2021 SMART surveys, the national prevalence of wasting stands
at 9.9 percent (confidence interval of 9.5-10.3 percent). This represents a
slight improvement compared to previous estimates within the past 10 years,
13 percent in 2011, 11.9 percent in 2019, and 9.9 percent in 2021. Wasting
identified by weight for height z-scores and/or oedema was significantly
higher in children aged 6 to 23 months than in children aged 24 to 59 months.
Overall and per the WHO 2019 threshold for wasting, the prevalence of acute
malnutrition in Yemen is categorised as ‘medium’, noting that the prevalence is
at the border and the upper confidence interval is above the ‘high’ threshold
(10 percent). This is likely due to the time of the surveys (November to January),
which is not the peak season for acute malnutrition. The peak season in Yemen
is experienced between June -September, and any assessment done outside this period may not provide an accurate picture of the
period of highest need (June -September).
In most governorates, the prevalence of wasting is below 15 percent except in Hajjah, Al Hudaydah and Taizz, ranging from 17 percent
to 26.9 percent. Four zones in these governorates (Hajjah Northern Lowland, Hajjah Western Lowland, Hajjah Southern Lowland, and
Taizz Lowland) have shown an increase in the prevalence of wasting between the 2019 and 2021 SMART surveys despite the seasonal
differences mentioned above. These governorates contribute to about 40 percent of the total burden of SAM and MAM, implying the
need to prioritise response in these governorates.

KEY DRIVERS
Conflict1
Conflict continues to be the primary driver of food insecurity in Yemen, leading to macroeconomic crisis, displacement, and closure of
ports which is negatively affecting the availability and access to food for the majority of the vulnerable population. Most governorates
with a high prevalence of food insecure populations (IPC Phase 3 and above) are characterised by active conflict zones. These include
parts of Taizz, Al Hudaydah, Hajjah, Shabwah, Marib and Al Dhale’e governorates. Conflicts in these areas have resulted in population
displacements, widespread loss of livelihoods and lives in some instances, disruption of food supply chains and market access,
increased cost and risk of doing business and disruption in delivery of critical life saving assistance including access to essential
services like healthcare, education, water and sanitation.
The escalation in southern Marib (Hareb and Al Joubah districts), northwest Hajjah (Haradh), and northeast Taizz (Maqbanah)
exacerbated the situation. Armed conflict is actively ongoing in the northern district of Marib (Majzar, Raghwan, and Medghal),
expanding into the southern districts of Al Jawf (Al Hazm and Alkhlaq), as well as in the Al Safra district. The analysis considered a
possible escalation of conflict in the projection period to expand into new areas like other southern districts of Marib (Alabidyah,
Mahliyah, Al Rahbah, and Jabal Murad) and other bordering districts of Al Bayda (Nate’ and Na’man) and Shabwah. Further, the

1 It is important to note that after the time of writing this report, a historic truce between the warring had been reached in the country and most of the conflict
assumptions are not evident. An IPC update will factor in these changes.
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 4

projection analysis expected the conflict to spread into other districts in Hajjah, particularly Haradh, Abs and Mustaba. The ongoing
active fighting in the northwest of Taizz governorate is also projected to expand to new areas of Maqbanah, Jabal Habashi and further
to the eastern districts of Salh district and surrounding areas.

Economic Crisis
• Depreciation of the local currency in IRG-controlled areas: over the past 12 months, the Yemeni riyal witnessed unprecedented
levels of depreciation, reaching a new historic low in December 2021 at around YER 1,700 against 1 US dollar (losing almost
47 percent of its value compared to the same time in 2020). In early January 2022, there was a temporary relief triggered by
administrative changes in the Central Bank and speculations of new deposits by Saudi Arabia. However, after a few weeks, the
exchange rate stabilised from mid-January to around 1,100–1,200 YER/USD, triggered mainly by sustained high demands for hard
currency. Depreciation of the riyal is projected to continue in 2022 albeit slower than in 2021, despite several fiscal measures
taken by the Central Bank since much depends on the anticipated external cash injection. A weakened riyal will further push
unaffordability of basic necessities including food. The depreciation particularly hit IRG-controlled areas, while the exchange rate
against the USD remained stable in SBA areas in 2021 and early 2022.
• Food prices and cost of minimum food basket: the currency depreciation continued to drive food prices up, especially in IRG-
controlled areas. Consequently, it increased the cost of the minimum food basket. In a country heavily dependent on food
imports (almost 90 percent), the collapse of the local currency has led to drastic increases in food prices. Wheat flour prices
increased by up to 120 percent on average between January and December 2021 in the IRG and 30 percent in SBA areas, while
the average cost of the minimum food basket increased 115 percent in IRG-controlled areas and 28 percent in areas controlled
by SBA respectively over the same period. In combination with declining or stagnant income opportunities, these factors have
eroded the population’s purchasing power. Food prices are expected to maintain an upward trend throughout 2022 and remain
above 2021 price levels, driven by further deprecation and high transportation costs. This will drive up the share of the population
unable to afford essential food and non-food needs, resulting in heightened food insecurity.
• Constrained employment: The public sector is a major employer. Cessation and/or delays in payment of salaries by the government
continues to drive many people into high economic vulnerability. According to the Food Security and Livelihood Assessment
(FSLA), public salaries or pension are the primary source of income for at least 40 percent of the households in Abyan, Aden,
Socotra, Al Dhale’e, Marib and Lahj governorates. The situation is further aggravated by the fact that many households have no
or limited alternative income sources to fall back on to offset the unreliability in public sector wages.
• Declining remittances: Remittances, especially from Gulf Countries where many Yemeni migrants live and support their families,
declined during the COVID-19 pandemic and the level still remains below the pre-COVID levels. Furthermore, Yemeni migrant
workers in Saudi Arabia have been affected by the nationalisation of the private sector, which has led to increased fees and fewer
job opportunities.
• The food-fuel nexus: Trends observed from early 2021 to early 2022 reveal a strong linkage between fuel and food security through
price volatility and frequent shortages. Fuel price increase across the country was mainly influenced by the steady depreciation
of the local currency and rising global oil prices resulting in supply shortfalls, as well as blockage and delays in clearance at the
port in Al Hudaydah, which supplies the northern governorates . This has knock-on effects throughout the economy, resulting
in increased transport cost and shortages in electricity, gas and water – all critical to the livelihoods of most of the population.
The increase in these costs has ultimately driven higher inflation levels, affecting the prices of various goods and services (food
and non-food), as producers ultimately pass production costs on to consumers already grappling with low incomes and income-
earning opportunities. Furthermore, the high fuel prices and unavailability have adverse effects on agricultural production and
fisheries as an increasing number of individuals leave the sectors, putting further pressure on an already tight labour market.
• Fuel crisis is driven by regulatory issues and logistics: In early 2022, the fuel crisis in the northern governorates of Yemen peaked
and reached a critical point as a result of delays in port clearances and blockages. The unavailability of fuel products in areas
under Sana’a Based Authority (SBA) is one of the recurring phenomena, which quickly turns into an acute crisis affecting the daily
life, livelihoods, health services, as well as the economic and productive sectors operating in the northern corridor. This is mainly
due to the suspension of permits and clearance delays for fuel vessels at the Al Hudaydah port. The alternative route of supplying
through southern ports is expensive and impacted by regulations of the Yemen Petroleum Company (YPC). Apart from affecting
the regular commercial transport market, fuel shortages have also affected humanitarian assistance as transport companies
increase their costs. In some instances, there have been reports of significant delays as the transporters exhaust their contingency
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 5

stocks, leading to delays of up to two weeks to refuel their trucks. This has also disrupted the supply chain as millers had to reduce
their capacity as outputs could not be uplifted on time, leading to increased storage costs.

Weather extremes, crop pests and diseases


Agriculture is the main livelihood activity in Yemen, and together with livestock and fisheries it serves as the primary source of
income for nearly two-thirds of the Yemen population. In 2021, several factors affected these populations, leading to reduced food
production and access to income, including increased cost for water pumping for irrigation due to fuel shortages, increased cost of
inputs, and the spread of animal and plant diseases. Conversely, recurrent seasonal flooding continued to cause deaths, injuries, and
displaced people from their homes, resulting in losses of property, crops and crucial productive assets. In 2021, more than 34,000
families, mostly IDPs, lost their shelters, incomes and livelihoods due to floods. Additionally, desert locusts threatened agriculture-
based livelihoods and food security as heavy rains and floods provided ideal ecological conditions for the locusts to multiply.
The forecast for 2022 shows the likelihood of warmer than usual temperatures, albeit with minor differences from governorate to
governorate and month to month. Regarding rainfall, all governorates were expected to experience normal rainfall apart from parts
of southern Al Maharah and Coastal Hadramout, which are likely to receive wetter than normal conditions.
The high cost of agriculture inputs, ongoing fuel shortages, expected desert locust and Fall Armyworm invasion, and other plants and
animal diseases due to ecologically favourable conditions present the main threats to agriculture production and are likely to hurt
household food security.

Reduction in the Humanitarian Food Assistance


In end-2021, Food Security and Agriculture Cluster (FSAC) reached approximately 13.4 million beneficiaries with the FSAC standard
ration of 80 percent of 2,100 kilocalories per person per day (80 percent of the daily requirement). However, unpredictable and limited
humanitarian funding is compounding the waning food insecurity situation in Yemen, leading to a significant scaling down of food
assistance in the current and projected periods. The current analysis period, January to May, considers a reduction of 50 percent
compared to the number of people receiving aid by the end of 2021 when assistance was able to cover the whole caseload of
beneficiaries of about 13 million. The prospects for the projection period get even worse with an expected reduction of 75 percent
from June to December compared to end-2021 levels. Given the fragile funding situation, FSAC partners adjusted the frequency
of assistance in order to stretch available resources, such as providing assistance once every two months instead of every month.
The reduction in humanitarian assistance at a time when underlying drivers of hunger continue to deteriorate will likely push more
people into extreme levels of food insecurity.

Morbidity
Communicable diseases, a primary cause of acute malnutrition in under-five children, remain one of the key contributing factors
affecting food security in Yemen, adding more burden on the vulnerable households. Based on recent SMART surveys conducted in
late 2021 and early 2022, over 40 percent of children under five (45 percent in northern governorates and 38.7 percent in the south)
suffer from diarrhoea, while 62 percent had a fever and 52.1 percent had malaria. The disease trend of the last three years showed
a significant increase in cases in 2021 compared to 2020 and 2019 for diarrhoea, malaria, ARI and measles in all governorates. This is
mainly due to the fragility of the health system in Yemen, inaccessibility to health and nutrition services by vulnerable households in
some areas, and closure of health and nutrition services in some areas such as the frontline districts of Hajjah, Marib, Al Bayda and Al
Dhale.
The Electronic Disease Early Warning System (eDEWS) confirmed the SMART survey results, which show that 2021 recorded the
highest suspected cases of malaria-related fevers, with a peak in the second half of the year. Al Hudaydah and Hajjah reported the
highest rates with 47.7 percent and 26.2 percent, respectively, followed by Taizz (4.4 percent), Saada (4.1 percent), Ibb (4 percent), and
Dhamar (3.5 percent) and Amran 3.4 percent. While eDEWS represents the entire population, it is essential to mention that children
under five represent nearly one-third of all the cases mentioned. At the district level, Al Hawak, Bait Alfaqih (Al Hudaydah) and Abs
(Hajjah) account for the highest-burden of malaria.
Surveillance data from eDEWS also showed that acute watery diarrhoea, a proxy for cholera and a significant cause of death among
children, peaked in the spring and autumn of 2021, with the highest number of suspected cases in Ibb 18 percent, Al Hudaydah at 17
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 6

percent, Sana’a 14 percent, Taizz 11 percent, Amran 7 percent, Hajjah and Dhamar 6 percent, and Al Dhale and Al Mahweet 5 percent.

Suboptimal infant and young children caring and feeding practices


Infant and young child feeding practices directly affect the nutritional status of children under two years of age and, ultimately, impact
child survival. Breast milk provides all the nutrients, vitamins and minerals an infant needs for growth during their first six months of
life. It protects against infection, making early and exclusive breastfeeding the most economical and safe public health intervention.
However, in emergency contexts where factors such as stress, conflict and displacement exist, breastfeeding is often interrupted, and
many mothers stop breastfeeding early. In Yemen, the rate of exclusive breastfeeding stands at 19.9 percent for children less than six
months, and continued breastfeeding is interrupted drastically, with only one-third of mothers reporting continued breastfeeding
beyond the first birthday.
From six months onwards, when breast milk alone is no longer sufficient to meet all nutritional requirements, infants enter a particularly
vulnerable period of complementary feeding during which they gradually transition to eating family foods. The complementary
feeding practices in Yemen remain low. Only 30 percent of children aged 6 to 23 months have the right Minimum Dietary Diversity
(MDD) consumption of at least four food groups and above. In comparison, Minimum Meal Frequency (MMF) stood at 49 percent
nationally. The Minimum Acceptable Diet (MAD), which is the composite indicator of meal frequency and MDD, shows a disturbing
situation, with 11.5 percent having the desired meal frequency of the correct diet. This implies that nearly 90 percent of children
between 6 and 23 months do not receive the minimum acceptable diet with sufficient nutrient and caloric intake.
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 7

MAIN OUTCOMES

Acute Food Insecurity


The food security outcome indicators indicate concerning levels of food consumption gaps throughout the country, with nearly
two-thirds of the population experiencing inadequate food consumption (73 percent for the northern governorates and 58
percent in the south), and five percent reporting severe hunger. Relying on less expensive food, reducing portion sizes, reducing
the number of meals, and borrowing food are commonly adopted consumption-based strategies. According to the FSLA, there
is a considerable disparity between areas under SBA, where 73 percent of the surveyed households indicated resorting to high
levels of consumption-based coping strategies (rCSI ≥ 19) compared to 21 percent in areas under IRG. In addition to consumption-
based coping, the majority of Yemenis are adopting livelihood-based coping strategies, particularly borrowing money to buy food,
increasing debt through credit, and reducing essential non-food expenditure. Similar disparities were reported between the northern
and the southern governorates nevertheless – 88 percent of households in SBA areas adopted crisis or emergency livelihood coping
strategies compared to 49 percent in IRG-controlled areas.
In addition to high reliance on humanitarian food assistance, informal social construct and family/religious ties play an important role
in cushioning vulnerable households from food security crises. As such, increase in debt is one of the commonly adopted strategies
in Yemen. However, it remains a central concern for food security analysts to assess when this will reach a critical point beyond which
the social fabric can endure.

Key Assumptions for the June - December 2022 most likely scenario

Conflict: The most likely scenario in the coming months, is the likelihood of a sustained level or a further escalation of conflict, which would
likely expand into new areas like additional southern districts of Marib (Alabidyah, Mahliyah, Al Rahbah, and Jabal Murad) and other bordering
districts of Al Bayda (Nate’ and Na’man) and Shabwahh. In addition, conflict might expand from the northwest of Hajjah (Haradh) to new areas
in the southern sub-districts of Abs and to Mustaba. The ongoing active fighting in the northwest of Taizz governorate could expand to new
areas of Maqbanah, Jabal Habashi and would likely escalate in the eastern areas of Taizz (Salh district and surrounding areas). On the other
hand, there is active fighting in the northern district of Marib (Majzar, Raghwan, and Medghal), expanding into the southern districts of Al
Jawf (Al Hazm and Alkhlaq), while active fighting is ongoing in Sa’dah, particularly the district of Al Safra. Fighting is likely to continue in the
southern and southeastern districts of Al Hoddeidah.

Depreciation of the local currency: The Yemeni riyal appreciated by around 91 percent in early-January 2022 triggered by administrative
changes in the Central Bank and speculations of new deposits by the Gulf States. However, it started depreciating again from mid-January
though oscillating around 1,100 – 1,200 YER/USD, triggered mainly by sustained high demands for hard currency. Depreciation of the riyal is
projected to continue in 2022, albeit at a slower rate than 2021, despite the several fiscal measures taken by the Central Bank. Much depends
on the anticipated external cash injection in the Central Bank of Yemen by Saudi Arabia. A weakened riyal will push more people into to being
unable to afford basic necessities including food.

Food prices and cost of minimum food basket: Food prices are expected to maintain an upward trend and remain elevated above 2021
price levels driven by high transaction costs and currency depreciation effects, at least until the first harvests in bimodal areas in August-Sep-
tember. This will drive up the share of the population unable to afford essential food and non-food needs, resulting in heightened food
insecurity.

Availability of commodities, including food: The port of Hudeydah is expected to remain functional at a very low levels, and mainly, if not
only for humanitarian commodities. The inlet of food and fuel will likely remain extremely low. The continuing limited inlet of goods from
Hudeydah port will have an impact on food prices of key commodities, partially mitigated by increased food availability produced in the
inland districts including from Hudeydah. Despite the increased local production in the projection period, the bulk of basic commodities will
continue flowing in from Aden port, with high unit cost especially in SBA due to hefty logistic and high transport costs.
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 8

Seasonality: Overall, agricultural districts will likely benefit from two harvest, the main one in December, the lean one in August. Conflict
and low functionality of ports has disrupted in main agro-inputs which will affect the agricultural and agro-pastoral districts in SBA controlled
districts. Other districts in Al Hudeydah, Taizz, Marib, Hajjah, Al Dhali’, are expected to continue experience active conflict and high levels of
displacement that may curtail favourable seasonal effects due to security issues.

Livelihood and income: Labour opportunities for people in the western coast (especially in Al Hudeydah) will be continue being affected
by insecurity. Fishermen will be unable to sail due to risk of airstrikes. Income in the urban areas with highest rates of food insecurity (Al Hali
and Al Hawak) is highly dependent on Hudeydah city port, which will continue facing massive scale down of activities and opportunities.

Humanitarian Food Assistance: During the current analysis period (Jan-May), assistance levels are expected to cover 50% of the estimated
beneficiary. Starting June, planned assistance is expected to reduce further to 25% of the targeted caseload. These assumptions are based
on funding estimates available at the time of analysis.

Access to basic services: Limited access to health, nutrition, and WASH services due to conflict and low immunization coverage leading to
high morbidity. This, along with poor child-feeding practices, leads to high acute malnutrition levels. In the projected period, access to basic
services will remain limited.
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 9

ACUTE MALNUTRITION SITUATION OVERVIEW (JANUARY - DECEMBER 2022)

As a result of the protracted conflict, poor food access,


and suboptimal child feeding and caring practices, both
Other Key Assumptions applicable to the AMN
wasting and stunting levels in Yemen are unacceptably very situation in addition to food security assumptions:
high – wasting at serious (10– >15 percent or critical (>15
percent) and stunting at 45 percent. Stunting prevalence Acceleration of the deterioration of the service access and
among children aged 0-59 months has remained constant utilization affected by a combination of a number of factors
since 2017 and 2019 at approximately 45 percent. However, including: floods, conflict, Ramadan and Eid, the impact of
it is more than a 10 percent reduction compared to the rate COVID-19 travel restrictions, fear of beneficiaries to visit health
in 1997, which stood at 59 percent. facilities, and the suspension of some mobile and outreach
services.
The recent SMART surveys show that stunting was higher
in children aged 24 to 59 months than in children aged
Accelerated morbidity: increase of common diseases that
6 to 23. Furthermore, boys were slightly more stunted at
affect child nutrition such as diarrhea, malaria, acute respiratory
47.7 percent compared to girls at 42.3 percent. The highest
infection, cholera, measles etc.
burden of stunting is found in Raymah (66.4 percent), while
the least prevalence is in Al Mahra.
WASH services are very poor and expected to continue to
The level of attention accorded to linear growth retardation deteriorate and playing a role in aggravation of the acute
(stunting) in humanitarian and protracted emergencies like malnutrition situation most of the areas.
Yemen is very low due to the priority focus on immediate
life-saving activities. However, studies show that severe
Child caring and feeding practices will continue to be worse
stunting is associated with a higher mortality risk. Evidence
with the deteriorating of food security situation, the families will
also suggests that both stunted and wasted children have
exhaust their coping strategies and thus might further affect the
a higher risk of mortality. It is likely that the underlying
feeding practices and children preferences in feeding.
causes of stunting, if not addressed, will lead to increased
mortality in the long run, given the equally high prevalence
of wasting. It is therefore essential to consider stunting
as a legitimate humanitarian goal in the same way that
prevention and treatment of wasting are being considered.

Interaction between Acute Food Insecurity and Acute Malnutrition


Conflict is the primary driver of both food insecurity and acute malnutrition in Yemen. The conflict has directly affected the economic
and human development of the country across all SDGs, increased poverty among households, and limited their access to food,
services and overall quality of life. Food insecurity is the primary driver of malnutrition, with the underlying being limited access to
and consumption of nutritious foods due to unaffordability, inadequate WASH due to unsafe drinking water, and poor sanitation, a
leading cause of infections and enteropathy among children. Children’s diets are suboptimal, and only 11.5 percent of children aged
6-23 months receive a minimum acceptable diet, while almost 86 percent of the children are not receiving sufficient food in terms
of quantity and quality.
The maps in the following pages (and summary in Annex 1) visually represent the interconnectedness between acute food insecurity
and acute malnutrition in Yemen. In the current period of analysis, no districts were classified in AFI IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe/Famine),
however, the acute food insecurity analysis found populations in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). The west coast districts indicate the
highest total prevalence and burden for food insecurity and acute malnutrition, with Hajjah, Al Hudaydah and Taizz governorates of
greatest concern. At the same time, Hadramout and Al Maharah were found to be least vulnerable in both analyses. Furthermore,
both analyses project a worsening in the west and southern coast with increasing high food insecurity and acute malnutrition.
During the projection period, both food insecurity and malnutrition are expected to increase with 82 districts moving from IPC Phase
3 (Crisis) to IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 72 districts moving from IPC Phase 3 (Serious) to IPC Phase 4 (Critical) respectively, with
increasing food insecurity being the primary driver for all 72 districts facing increasing malnutrition. Similarly, the governorates of
concern in both analyses increase from three to six, namely Hajjah, Al Hudaydah, Taizz, Amran, Marib, and Al Dhale. For both periods
of analysis, Al Mahrah continues to indicate the lowest levels of vulnerability.
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 10

ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY MAP (JANUARY – MAY 2022) AND PROJECTION


MAP (JUNE – DECEMBER 2022)
Acute Food Insecurity Situation: January - May 2022 1 - Minimal
21 - Stressed
Minimal
32 -- Crisis
StressedOf the 333 districts analyzed,
Saudi Arabia
Oman 4
3 - Emergency
Crisis 151 districts are classified in
54 -- Famine
Emergency
Phase 4 (Emergency), 172
5Areas
- Famine
districts in Phase 3 (Crisis) and
with inadequate evidence
Sa'ada

Hadramaut Al Maharah Areas not


8 districts
withanalysed
inadequate evidence
in Phase 2 (Stressed).
There are three districts with
Al Jawf

Areas not analysed


Map Symbols
31,000 people in Phase 5
Amran
Hajjah
Urban settlement
Map Symbols
classification (Catastrophe).
Amanat Al Asimah Marib
Al Mahwit Urban settlement
Sana'a IDPs/other settlements
classification
classification Conflict and economic crisis
Al Hudaydah Shabwah IDPs/other settlements
Red Sea
Raymah Dhamar
Arabian Sea classification
Area receives remain the main drivers of
significant
Al Bayda
humanitarian food assistance
Ibb Area receives
(accounted for in Phase
acute food insecurity, further
significant
classification)
Al Dhale'e
humanitarian food assistance
exacerbated
Abyan
Socotra
> 25% of households meet 25-50% by the instability
(accounted for in Phase classification)
Taizz
of caloric needs through assistance
Lahj 1 - Minimal
in the
> 25% of households meet 25-50% level of humanitarian
Eritrea
Aden
Gulf of Aden of> caloric
25% ofneeds
households
throughmeet
assistance. > 50%
assistance
Ethiopia 2 - Stressed of caloric needs through assistance
Djibouti Socotra > 25% of households meet > 50%
3 - Crisis EvidenceofLevel
caloric needs through assistance
Key for the Map 1 - Minimal 4 - Emergency Acceptable
* Medium
Evidence Level ( ** Μedium Evidence Level for
IPC Acute Food Insecurity ** High
about 30 districts. Please refer to the
2 - Stressed 5 - Famine ***
* Acceptable Limitations of Analysis section)
** Scarce
Mediumevidence due to limited or
Phase Classification 3 - Crisis Areas with inadequate evidence *** no humanitarian access
High
Scarce evidence due to limited or
4 - Emergency Areas not analysed no humanitarian access

5 - Famine
Map Symbols
Areas with inadequate evidence Urban settlement
classification
Projected Acute Food Insecurity Situation: June - December 2022 Areas not analysed
IDPs/other settlements
classification 1 - Minimal
Map Symbols
Urban settlement Area receives significant 21 - Stressed
classification humanitarian food assistance
Minimal During the projection period,
(accounted for in Phase classification) 32 -- Crisis
Stressed 233 districts are classified
Saudi Arabia IDPs/other settlements
classification > 25% of households meet 25-50% 43 - Emergency
of caloric needs through assistance
Oman Crisis in Phase 4 (Emergency), 94
Area receives significant 54 -- Famine
Emergency districts in Phase 3 (Crisis)
humanitarian food assistance > 25% of households meet > 50%
Sa'ada (accounted for in Phase classification) of caloric needs through assistance 5Areas
- Famine and evidence
with inadequate four districts in Phase 2
Al Jawf > 25% ofHadramaut
households meetEvidence
25-50% Level Al Maharah
Areas not (Stressed).
withanalysed
inadequate evidence
of caloric needs through assistance
Amran * Acceptable There are 23 districts that
Areas not analysed
Map Symbols
Hajjah
> 25% of households meet** > 50%Medium
*** High
of caloric needs through assistance Urban settlement
Map Symbols
have been projected to have
Amanat Al Asimah Scarce evidence due to limited or classification
Al Mahwit
Marib
Evidence Level no humanitarian access Urban settlement 161,000 population in Phase 5
Sana'a
IDPs/other settlements
classification
Al Hudaydah * Acceptable classification (Catastrophe).
Raymah Dhamar
Shabwah
** Medium IDPs/other settlements
*** High classification
Area receives significant
The severity increases in the
Red Sea Arabian Sea
Al Bayda
Scarce evidence due to limited or humanitarian food assistance
Ibb
no humanitarian access Area receives significant
Al Dhale'e (accounted for in Phase projection period with 86
classification)
Abyan humanitarian food assistance
Taizz Socotra > 25% of households meet 25-50%
districts
(accounted for in Phase classification) moving to higher
of caloric needs through assistance
Eritrea
Lahj
1 - Minimal > 25% of householdsIPC Phases,
meet 25-50% 82 of which move
Aden
Gulf of Aden
of> caloric
25% ofneeds
households
throughmeet > 50%
assistance
Ethiopia
Djibouti 2 - Stressed Socotra
of caloric needsfromthroughPhaseassistance3 (Crisis) to Phase 4
> 25% of households meet > 50%
3 - Crisis EvidenceofLevel
caloric needs through assistance
Key for the Map 1 - Minimal 4 - Emergency Acceptable
* Medium
Evidence Level ( ** Μedium Evidence Level for about 30

IPC Acute Food Insecurity ** High


districts. Please refer to the Limitations of
2 - Stressed 5 - Famine ***
* Acceptable Analysis section)
** Scarce
Mediumevidence due to limited or
Phase Classification 3 - Crisis Areas with inadequate evidence *** no humanitarian access
High
Scarce evidence due to limited or
4 - Emergency Areas not analysed no humanitarian access

5 - Famine
Map Symbols
Areas with inadequate evidence Urban settlement
classification
Areas not analysed
IDPs/other settlements
classification
Map Symbols
Urban settlement Area receives significant
classification humanitarian food assistance
IDPs/other settlements (accounted for in Phase classification)
classification > 25% of households meet 25-50%
of caloric needs through assistance
Area receives significant
humanitarian food assistance > 25% of households meet > 50%
(accounted for in Phase classification) of caloric needs through assistance
> 25% of households meetEvidence
25-50% Level
of caloric needs through assistance
* Acceptable
Medium
> 25% of households meet > 50%
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 11

ACUTE MALNUTRITION MAP (JANUARY – MAY 2022) AND PROJECTION MAP


(JUNE – DECEMBER 2022)
Acute Malnutrition Situation: January - May 2022
1 - Minimal
21 - Stressed
Minimal
32 -- Crisis
IPC Acute Malnutrition current
Stressed
Saudi Arabia
43 - Emergency
analysis classified 40 districts
Oman Crisis
54 -- Famine
out of 333 in Phase 4 (Critical),
Emergency
199 districts in Phase 3 (Serious)
5Areas
- Famine
with inadequate evidence
Sa'ada
Al Maharah
and 94 districts in Phase 2
Hadramaut
Areas not
withanalysed
inadequate evidence
(Alert)
Al Jawf

Hajjah
Amran Areas not analysed
Map Symbols
Urban settlementFood insecurity, poor infant
Map Symbols
classification
Urban settlementand child feeding practices,
Amanat Al Asimah Marib
Al Mahwit
Sana'a
IDPs/other settlements
classification
Al Hudaydah
classification limited access to WASH, health
Shabwah
IDPs/other settlements
Red Sea
Raymah Dhamar
Arabian Sea classification
Area receives and nutrition services, and high
significant
Al Bayda
Ibb 1 - Acceptable humanitarian food assistance
Area receives
morbidity, are the key drivers to
significant
Al Dhale'e (accounted for in Phase classification)
Abyan humanitarian food assistance
> 25% of
malnutrition
households meet 25-50%
in Yemen.
Taizz 2 - Alert
Socotra
(accounted for in Phase classification)
Lahj
of caloric needs through assistance
> 25% of households meet 25-50%
Eritrea
Aden
Gulf of Aden 3 - Serious of> caloric
25% ofneeds
households
throughmeet > 50%
assistance
Ethiopia
Djibouti Socotra
of caloric needs through assistance
4 - Critical > 25% of households meet > 50%
EvidenceofLevel
caloric needs through assistance
Key for the Map 1 - Acceptable 5 - Extremely critical Acceptable
* Medium
Evidence Level ( ** Μedium Evidence Level for about 30

IPC Acute Malnutrition Phase classification ** High


districts. Please refer to the Limitations of
2 - Alert ***
* Acceptable Analysis section)
based on MUAC ** Scarce
Mediumevidence due to limited or
Phase Classification 3 - Serious Areas with inadequate *** no humanitarian access
High
evidence Scarce evidence due to limited or
no humanitarian access
4 - Critical Areas not analysed

5 - Extremely critical Map Symbols


Phase classification
Projected Acute Malnutrition Situation: June - December 2022
Urban settlement
classification
based on MUAC
Areas with inadequate 1 - Minimal
evidence IDPs/other settlements 21 - Stressed
Minimal
classification Four districts have been
Areas not analysed 32 -- Crisis
Saudi Arabia
Stressed projected in Phase 5 (Extremely
Map Symbols Evidence Level 43 - Emergency
Oman Crisis Critical), 108 districts in Phase 4
* Acceptable 54 -- Famine
Emergency (Critical), 193 districts in Phase
Urban settlement
** Medium
Sa'ada
classification *** High 5Areas
- Famine 3 (Serious)
with inadequate evidence and 28 districts in
Scarce evidence due
Al Jawf IDPs/other
Hadramautsettlements Al Maharah
to limited or no Areas not Phaseevidence
withanalysed
inadequate 2 (Alert).
classification
humanitarian access Areas not analysed
Amran Map Symbols
Hajjah
Evidence Level
Acute malnutrition is expected
Urban settlement
Map Symbols
classification to deteriorate in 138 districts
Amanat Al Asimah
Al Mahwit
Marib
* Acceptable Urban settlement
Sana'a
** Medium during the projection period.
IDPs/other settlements
classification
Al Hudaydah Shabwah
*** High classification
IDPs/other settlements
Raymah Dhamar Scarce evidence due
Red Sea Arabian Sea classification
Area receives significant
Al Bayda to limited or no
1 - Acceptable humanitarian food assistance
Ibb
Al Dhale'e
humanitarian access Area receives
(accounted significant
for in Phase classification)
Abyan humanitarian food assistance
Taizz 2 - Alert
Socotra > 25% of households meet 25-50%
(accounted for in Phase classification)
of caloric needs through assistance
Lahj
> 25% of households meet 25-50%
Eritrea
Aden
Gulf of Aden 3 - Serious of> caloric
25% ofneeds
households
throughmeet > 50%
assistance
Ethiopia
Djibouti Socotra
of caloric needs through assistance
4 - Critical > 25% of households meet > 50%
EvidenceofLevel
caloric needs through assistance
Key for the Map 1 - Acceptable 5 - Extremely critical Acceptable
* Medium
Evidence Level ( ** Μedium Evidence Level for about 30

IPC Acute Malnutrition Phase classification ** High


districts. Please refer to the Limitations of
2 - Alert ***
* Acceptable Analysis section)
based on MUAC ** Scarce
Mediumevidence due to limited or
Phase Classification 3 - Serious Areas with inadequate *** no humanitarian access
High
evidence Scarce evidence due to limited or
no humanitarian access
4 - Critical Areas not analysed

5 - Extremely critical Map Symbols


Phase classification Urban settlement
based on MUAC
classification
Areas with inadequate
evidence IDPs/other settlements
classification
Areas not analysed

Map Symbols Evidence Level


* Acceptable
Urban settlement
** Medium
classification *** High
Scarce evidence due
IDPs/other settlements to limited or no
classification
humanitarian access
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 12

THE ROLE OF HUMANITARIAN FOOD ASSISTANCE

Humanitarian food assistance plays a vital role in Yemen, with a large proportion of the population relying on assistance as the
primary source of staple foods. Yemen Food Security and Agriculture Cluster (FSAC) planned to reach 12.6 million people, of which
96 percent were assisted during January-September 2021. Food assistance was significantly reduced in the first half of 2021 due to
a decrease in funding levels; however, in the second half of the year, a considerable scale-up reached more than three-quarters of
the caseload with their monthly requirements. Resources permitting, beneficiaries received the FSAC agreed standard ration of 80
percent of the total minimum requirement of 2,100 kcal/person/day. Given the fragile funding situation in the first half of 2021, FSAC
partners were forced to adjust the frequency of assistance to stretch available resources, such as providing assistance once every two
months instead of every month. For example, from January to May 2021, 8 million people received assistance every other month
resulting in increased food consumption gaps. From June to November 2021, increased levels of funding allowed partners to scale
up assistance, leaving 2.6 million people (20 percent of the FSAC target) still only supported every other month. However, funding
challenges in December 2021 resulted in a further decrease in assistance levels, resulting in 8 million people in 180 out of the 333
districts receiving just 49 percent of the FSAC recommended kilocalories. In total, 8.6 million received their entitlement as in-kind food
rations, 2.5 million people as commodity vouchers, and 1.5 million people as cash.
FSLA results show that on average humanitarian food assistance (HFA) was the main source of cereal for 15 percent of the population
in areas under IRG control and around 27 percent of the population in areas controlled by SBA. The importance of humanitarian food
assistance to alleviate Catastrophe food insecurity (IPC Phase 5) is found in the overall improvement seen in the 11 districts that were
projected as having populations in Phase 5 (Catastrophe) in the 2021 IPC analysis. Out of the 11 districts, only one remained with
population in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) in the 2022 current analysis (Al Maghrabah in Hajjah) indicating an overall improvement
following the increased level of assistance and attention of the humanitarian community towards enhanced monitoring of the
situation in these districts. However, as a consequence of the assumed decrease in funding levels, Al Maghrabah and an additional
five districts (Bart Al Anan in Al Jawf, Harf Sufyan, Al Ashah, As Sudah and As Sawd in Amran) are projected to again have populations
facing Catastrophe food insecurity.
Considering funding information available in early February 2022, the IPC analysis is based on the following assumptions for
humanitarian food assistance:
• For the current period January to May 2022, humanitarian assistance is expected to support 6.4 million beneficiaries across
Yemen with a ration of 1,650 kcal/person/day, which translated into approximately 50 percent of the estimated 13 million people
reached during the data collection period (September to December 2021).
• For the projection period June to December 2022, humanitarian food assistance is estimated to support 2.6 million beneficiaries
across Yemen with a ration of 1,650 kcal/person/day, translating into an overall reduction of 75 percent compared to end-2021.
Different from the assumptions on levels of humanitarian food assistance at the time of analysis, additional contributions were
confirmed at the beginning of March. As these increased resource confirmations came after the completion of the analysis, they
were not factored into the IPC results, but will be reflected in the IPC update scheduled in the second half of 2022 close monitoring
of the funding situation is necessary. In addition to the scale and coverage of humanitarian assistance, the analysis is also based on
the premise of a conducive environment for the delivery of humanitarian assistance in most of the districts.
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 13

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ACTION

Acute Food Insecurity


Ending the war and promoting economic stabilization: Parties involved in the conflict to immediately cease armed activities and
hostilities to protect Yemeni lives and livelihoods. There is a further urgent need to allow and advocate for an unimpeded flow of
humanitarian and commercial imports that serve essential needs into and within the country which would boost commodities
availability and potential price decreases. Ending the war in Yemen will also pave the way to reconstruction and enable focus on
longer-term investments to tackle the underlying causes of food and nutrition insecurity. Furthermore, an urgent review of the
economic and fiscal policies is required to restore confidence in the riyal to enhance currency stability.
Provide life-saving humanitarian assistance: To stop and reverse inexorable deterioration in food insecurity levels, donors to provide
urgently needed resources to enable sourcing and delivery of critical life-saving food assistance to populations facing large food
consumption gaps. Any reduction in funding is expected to significantly hamper the food security situation.
Provide livelihood support and diversification: Considering the diminished resilience of people, the high level of vulnerability to
shocks, and the chronic nature of food insecurity and malnutrition, close collaboration between humanitarian and development
programmes is needed to tackle underlying drivers and enhance resilience.
Improve inter-sectoral programming: Advocate for and support enhanced integrated multisectoral approach for programming
focused on the four key sectors; food security, nutrition, health and WASH. These would include continuing integrated primary
health care services including immunization, hygiene promotion and WASH interventions at facility and community level, as well as
supporting integrated livelihood and nutrition programmes through general food assistance, and by promoting kitchen gardening
at community level.
Strengthen monitoring and early warning systems: Given the fragile context, joint and coordinated efforts in monitoring food
security and nutrition and their key drivers is essential for early warning/early action. Relevant stakeholders should strengthen their
monitoring systems in a coordinated manner, and ensure timely analysis to comprehend the extent of the situation and ascertain
when to trigger early action.

Acute Malnutrition
Strengthen inter-sectoral programming: Address all forms of malnutrition in Yemen through a multisectoral approach with special
focus on prevention first and then treatment.
Prioritisation of most severe areas: Prioritise CMAM programme in zones where the prevalence of acute malnutrition is 10 percent
and above, and where the magnitude is high. Levels of acute malnutrition for the planning purpose should be identified using the
combined GAM criteria.
Conduct mass vaccination campaigns: Vaccination campaigns targeting children under five for Polio and targeting children under
15 years for measles should be conducted, prioritizing zones of low coverages. A plan for mass vitamin A supplementation to join
these campaigns should be put in place.
Promote sufficient child feeding practices: Assess and monitor the extent to which mothers of infants and young children have
access to the proper child feeding practices counselling, including identifying barriers and promoting improvement measures.
Strengthen community nutrition initiatives: Effectively improve the practices of child feeding at the far rural villages, focusing
specifically on children below two years.
Improve access of pregnant women to antenatal care: Better access to antenatal care including support to improve the nutrition
status, to achieve acceptable birth weight and successful breastfeeding after delivery are vital for improved nutritional status of
mothers and children in Yemen.
Strengthen monitoring systems: Support to nutrition surveillance system is important for improved early action for nutrition
programming. Furthermore, ensuring that SMART assessments are conducted at the peak lean season of June -September is key to
assure comparability and properly assess the severity of malnutrition in Yemen.
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 14

Situation monitoring and update


Given various fundamental recent developments including but not limited to the war in the Ukraine, the truce in Yemen, and updated
funding forecasts for humanitarian assistance, the IPC analysis warrants an update in the second half of 2022. This update will be
based on a careful revision of the assumptions of key drivers that guided this IPC analysis. In line with the continuous monitoring
of the situation in the 11 districts with populations in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in 2021, the 23 districts in ten governorates that are
projected to have populations classified in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) will be closely monitored throughout 2022. Specifically, the
IPC Technical Working Group through its partners aims at monitoring the evolution of the food security situation with a focus on
collecting indicators specifically targeted at monitoring the development in the severity in most vulnerable districts.

Risk factors to monitor


As acute food insecurity and malnutrition are expected to worsen during both the current and projected periods, important risk
factors need to be monitored to flag a potential change in the situation. In case of larger changes, it may be necessary to conduct
an IPC update.
• Conflict: As conflict remains a key driver of household ability to access food and a key driver of displacement and livelihood
disruption, it is important to monitor areas that have an active frontline, continuous armed clashes, airstrikes and any war events,
such as in Marib, Taizz, Al Hudaydah, and Al Dhale, and the surrounding areas to these affected areas such as IDP-hosting districts.
• Currency and price volatility : Monitoring currency fluctuations is crucial, especially for IRG-controlled areas, as the value of the
riyal determines both the import capacity of Yemeni traders for essential food and non-food items , and affects the purchasing
power of vulnerable households through price developments on local markets. Thus, it is important to monitor key factors
affecting both the demand for and availability of foreign reserves such as developments in fiscal policies, changes in the level
of remittances, additional foreign inflows in the form of foreign deposits or grants, global food and fuel prices and global trade
policies.
• Humanitarian food assistance: Due to the very high dependency on humanitarian food assistance, monitoring funding and
assistance levels as well as humanitarian access to highly food insecure and hard-to-reach areas is critical.
• Import levels and conditions: As Yemen is relying on import for fuel and more than 90 percent of its food needs, monitoring
the functionality of sea and land ports is crucial. In addition, availability on the world market of essential food items and their
ramifications for Yemen imports need close attention.
• Climatic events: Drought, flash floods, pests and diseases of both plants and livestock can severely impact areas where a high
share of the population depends on agriculture and livestock keeping. Furthermore, flash floods often have an adverse effect on
the situation of IDP populations. These areas need to be closely monitored.
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 15

PROCESS AND METHODOLOGY

The Yemen IPC Technical Working Group (TWG) is made up of multiple agencies representing different governmental and non-
governmental sectors, including UN agencies, resource partners and international non-governmental agencies. It comprises IRG
and SBA-based authorities in Aden and Sana’a, ministries and other IPC partners, including UN agencies, iNGOs, local NGOs, the
Ministry of Population and Public Health (MoPHP), the Supreme Council for the Management and Coordination of Humanitarian
Affairs (SCMCHA), and the Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation (MoPIC).
The 2022 Yemen IPC analysis went through multiple layers of technical, logistical, administrative, procedural, coordination, analytical
and reviewing processes. With the overall management and coordination by FAO, the Yemen IPC TWG conducted a series of
consultative and technical meetings and implemented the different phases of the 2022 IPC analysis process. The IPC process started
early 2021 by preparing a detailed implementation plan and establishing timelines of activities including an inventory of available
information and determining the need for updated data required for the analysis. Gathering and reviewing of secondary data, as well
as monitoring of the status of different planned surveys and assessments were among the TWG’s tasks at the beginning of the entire
exercise. The IPC analysis covered all the 333 districts in 22 governorates of Yemen. The analysis covered two periods: current January
- May 2022 and projected June - December 2022.
The IPC analysis covered both Acute Food Insecurity and Acute Malnutrition and was conducted between 26 January and 23 February
2022. Prior to the analyses, AFI and AMN Level 1 certifying trainings took place in different stages between late November 2021 and
late January 2022. The four analyses were introduced by one to two days-long refresher trainings. During the refresher, the Excel
worksheets with predictive text were introduced and thereby used throughout the analysis. The analyses took place separately in
Aden for Internationally Recognized Government-controlled areas, and in Sana’a for Sana’a Based Authorities-controlled areas. Both
analyses were technically supported by several UN organizations (FAO, UNICEF, WFP, OCHA, WHO), Government ministry technical
officers, non-governmental organizations and key resource persons from the districts. The analysis started by forming an analysis team,
which were composed of multiple agencies representing different governmental and non-governmental organizations, including
UN agencies, resource partners, and international partners. A total of 22 groups were formed to work on governorate/districts level
meta-analysis. Each group included a combination of experts from the different sectors together with other experts familiar with the
socio-economic and other contributing factors in the governorates/districts.The facilitation was done by certified level three analyst
assisted by a number of level two analysts. The IPC Global Support Unit (GSU) was also present in both analyses. FAO coordinated the
analyses as well as obtaining all relevant and necessary clearances from government authorities.
In addition, a Risk of Famine analysis (RoF), coordinated and facilitated by GSU staff with the relevant analysis teams (Hajjah, Al Huda
ydah, Marib, Amran, Al Jawf ) was conducted in Sana’a between 10 and 22 February. Two districts under IRG control in Ad D ali’ and
Aden were also shortlisted but then discarded as they did not meet all criteria of eligibility for RoF analysis. The overall result of the
analysis is that Please refer to Annex 6 for detailed information on the methodology and results of IPC Yemen RoF.
A Famine Review Process took place between 21 February and 13 March. The activation of the Famine Review Committee (FRC) –
comprising a restrained group of international food security and nutrition experts - was agreed upon by the TWG and GSU to add
further layer of analysis to five vulnerable districts in Hajjah and Al Hudaydah governorates where key indicators were showing
results that were close to an area level Famine classification (IPC Phase 5). The main finding of the FRC is that while Catastrophe food
insecurity (IPC Phase 5) levels were likely to be present, the committee did not find evidence that suggested a Famine area level
classification. The FRC results are published in a separate report.

SOURCES
The IPC process brought together available food security information in a systematic manner to produce the best possible estimates
of the food security situation. Two main data work streams were used during the IPC analysis:
1. Food Security and Livelihoods Assessment (FSLA), conducted between September and December 2021 by WFP, FAO and
UNICEF in collaboration with SCMCHA in SBA areas and MoPIC in IRG controlled areas. With over 84,000 households interviewed
for food security and nearly 127,000 for MUAC, the FSLA data is representative at district level with approximately 260 households
interviewed for food security and 390 households for MUAC in 326 districts of Yemen. The FSLA provided the data that was
used to calculate all the main food security outcome indicators (Food Consumption Score, Livelihood-based Coping Strategy
indicator, Household Dietary Diversity Score, Household Hunger Score, reduced Coping Strategy Index), nutrition data (Global
Acute Malnutrition using MUAC data measurement) and contributing factors (shocks, WASH, indebtedness, livelihoods, income,
agriculture and livelihoods etc). Furthermore, qualitative data collection was conducted across all governorates in the areas
under IRG control to represent the different livelihood zones, which was used as contributing evidence during the IPC analysis.
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 16

2. SMART Nutrition and retrospective mortality surveys: UNICEF undertook a more robust form of nutrition assessments to support
data availability that is critical to improve planning, prioritization and targeting of nutrition response. I n collaboration with
the MOPHP in both Aden and Sana’a SMART surveys were planned to be conducted in all 22 governorates. However, due to
the vast nature and non-homogeneity of governorates, districts were divided into zones based on similarity in livelihood and
other characteristics. A total of 44 zones were established covering the entire country, and all the planned SMART surveys were
conducted between August 2021 and February 2022. The SMART survey was the primary source of evidence for the IPC analysis,
with MUAC data used as supporting evidence.
3. Additional, relevant information from numerous sources were used for triangulation and as key inputs to the analyses:
• FSAC humanitarian food assistance data
• Demographic information from OCHA and CSO
• Displacement information from CCCM, OCHA, IOM and SCMCHA;
• WFP market monitoring system;
• FAO FSNIS Market Data;
• Rainfall data from FAO and partner institutions;
• Morbidity and admissions updates from WHO, MoPHP and UNICEF;
• Conflict and displacement updates from NGOs and local institutions;
• COVID-19 figures from INGOs, WHO and MoPHP; and
• Other relevant information on contributing factors, food access, availability, utilization, and stability from assessments carried
out in 2021

LIMITATIONS OF THE ANALYSIS


The following challenges and limitations apply to data generation for the IPC and the IPC process:
a. Ten districts were inaccessible due to intense active fighting during the period of FSLA data collection (Osilan, Al Ain and Bayhan
in Shabwah; and Harib, Medgal, Al Abdiyah and Jabal Murad in Marib; and Haradh, Hayran and Midi in Hajjah). In 21 districts of
Al Hudaydah,11 districts in Amran and 3 districts in Hajjah some data was discarded by WFP in agreement with SCMCHA due
to insufficient data quality. In both cases, data was extrapolated from nearby districts facing a similar situation. Furthermore, in
seven frontline districts, data was collected from both sides of the frontline to better reflect the situation of the entire district. IPC
analyses were done by each of the two IPC teams and results were combined by the IPC GSU. Agricultural data was not cleaned
and available for the IPC analysis. Overall, the vast majority of districts reached High Evidence Level, however around 30 districts
reached the Medium Evidence Level (having employed at least two pieces of evidence R1). These areas are: AL Hudaydah (Ad
Dahi, Ad Durayhimi, Al Garrahi, Al Khawkhah, Al Mansuriyah, Al Marawi’ah, Al Mighlaf, Al Mina, Al Munirah, Al Qanawis, Alluheyah,
As Sukhnah, At Tuhayat, Az Zaydiyah, Az Zuhrah, Bajil, Bayt Al Faqiah, Bura, Hays, Jabal Ra’s, Kamaran, Zabid), Hadramout (Shibam),
Shabwah (Ain, Bayhan, Usaylan), Marib (Al Abdiyah, Al Jubah, Harib, Medghal), Al Dhalee (Qa’atabah).
b. The challenges and limitations of the SMART survey included delays in getting approvals from the authorities to conduct SMART
surveys, the level of cooperation from some local authorities, data being collected during an 8-months period reflecting different
seasonality, results being at zone level with lower possibility for disaggregation of results, inaccessibility to areas with high levels
of insecurity where levels of malnutrition could potentially be higher.
c. Important data gaps for the IPC analyses include updated and agreed upon population data which is needed for accurately
providing population estimates, as well as mortality data which is not available for Yemen though needed for IPC Phase 5 (Famine)
area classification.
d. Due to the highly volatile situation in Yemen, the situation is constantly changing and thus subject to a high degree of
unpredictability. This means that despite agreeing on assumptions of key drivers that were most likely at the time of the analysis,
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 17

many changed quickly after the analysis in both a positive and negative direction. What are the IPC, IPC Acute
Due to this, an update to the IPC analysis will be needed during the second half of Food Insecurity and IPC Acute
2022 to ensure that the projected results are still accurate. Malnutrition?
e. During the IPC analysis, it was found that there is a limited number of published, The IPC is a set of tools and procedures to
official government statistics to support the analysis. Furthermore, a wider variation classify the severity and characteristics of
of partners from FSAC would have been a value added for the discussions and acute food and nutrition crises as well as
chronic food insecurity based on interna-
analysis. tional standards. The IPC consists of four mu-
tually reinforcing functions, each with a set
of specific protocols (tools and procedures).
The core IPC parameters include consensus
building, convergence of evidence, account-
ability, transparency and comparability. The
IPC analysis aims at informing emergency
Acute Food Insecurity Phase name and description response as well as medium and long-term
food security policy and programming.
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5
None/Minimal Stressed Crisis Emergency Catastrophe/ For the IPC, Acute Food Insecurity and
Famine Acute Malnutrition are defined as any man-
ifestation of food insecurity or malnutrition
Households are able Households have Households either: Households either: Households have an found in a specified area at a specific point
to meet essential minimally adequate • have food • have large food extreme lack of food
food and non-food food consumption consumption gaps in time of a severity that threatens lives or
consumption gaps and/or other basic
needs without but are unable that are reflected by that are reflected needs even after livelihoods, or both, regardless of the caus-
engaging in atypical to afford some high or above-usual in very high acute full employment of es, context or duration. The IPC Acute Food
and unsustainable essential non-food acute malnutrition; malnutrition and coping strategies. Insecurity Classification is highly susceptible
strategies to access expenditures without or excess mortality; Starvation, death,
food and income. engaging in stress- • are marginally able to change and can occur and manifest in a
or destitution and
coping strategies. to meet minimum • are able to extremely critical population within a short amount of time,
food needs but mitigate large acute malnutrition as a result of sudden changes or shocks
only by depleting food consumption levels are evident. that negatively impact the determinants of
essential livelihood gaps but only
assets or through food insecurity. The IPC Acute Malnutrition
by employing For famine
crisis-coping emergency classification, area Classification’s focus is on identifying areas
strategies. livelihood strategies needs to have with a large proportion of children acutely
and asset liquidation extreme critical levels malnourished preferably by measurement
of acute malnutrition of Weight for Height Z-Score (WHZ) but also
and mortality.)
by Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC).

Contact for further Information


Acute Malnutrition Phase name and description
YE-FSNIS@fao.org
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5
Acceptable Alert Serious Critical Extremely IPC Global Support Unit
Critical www.ipcinfo.org
Less than 5% of 5–9.9% of children 10–14.9% of 15–29.9% of 30% or more This analysis has been conducted under the
children are acutely are acutely children are acutely children are acutely children are acutely patronage of the Food Security Information
malnourished. malnourished. malnourished. malnourished. malnourished. Systems in conjunction with the Food
The mortality and Widespread
morbidity levels morbidity and/or
Security Technical Secretariat. It has
are elevated or very large individual benefited from the technical and financial
increasing. Individual food consumption support of the European Union.
food consumption gaps are likely
is likely to be evident. Classification of food insecurity and
compromised. malnutrition was conducted using the
IPC protocols, which are developed and
implemented worldwide by the IPC Global
Partnership - Action Against Hunger, CARE,
CILSS, EC-JRC , FAO, FEWSNET, Global Food
Security Cluster, Global Nutrition Cluster,
IGAD, Oxfam, PROGRESAN-SICA, SADC, Save
the Children, UNICEF and WFP.

IPC Analysis Partners:


YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 18

ANNEX 1: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS


1 - Minimal
1 - Minimal
Acute21Food
MinimalInsecurity Situation
- Stressed January - May 2022 Acute Malnutrition Situation January - May 2022
21 - Stressed
Minimal
32 -- Crisis
Stressed 32 -- Crisis
Stressed
43 - Emergency
Crisis Saudi Arabia
Oman
43 - Emergency
Crisis
Saudi Arabia
Oman
54 -- Famine
Emergency 54 -- Famine
Emergency
5Areas
- Famine
with inadequate evidence
5Areas
- Famine
with inadequate evidence
Sa'ada Sa'ada

Hadramaut Al Maharah Al Maharah


Hadramaut
Areas not
withanalysed
inadequate evidence
Al Jawf Al Jawf

Hajjah
Amran Areas
Hajjah
not
with analysed
Amran inadequate evidence
Areas not analysed
Map Symbols
Amanat Al Asimah Marib Areas not
Map Symbols Amanatanalysed
Al Asimah
Urban settlement
Marib
Al Mahwit Al Mahwit
Map Symbols
classification
Sana'a
Urban settlement Sana'a

Al Hudaydah Map Symbols


classification
UrbanRaymah settlement
Shabwah Al Hudaydah Shabwah

IDPs/other settlements
Raymah Dhamar
Urban settlement Al Bayda
Dhamar

classification
Red Sea Arabian Sea
IDPs/other settlements
Red Sea Arabian Sea

classification
Al Bayda
classification
classification
Ibb Ibb
IDPs/other settlements Al Dhale'e Al Dhale'e 1 - Acceptable
classification
Area receives significant
Taizz
Abyan
Socotra IDPs/other settlements Abyan
Socotra
1 - Minimal classification
Area receives significant
Taizz
2 - Alert
humanitarian food assistance
Lahj Lahj

Area receives
Eritrea
(accounted significant
for in Phase classification)
Gulf of Aden humanitarian food assistance
Eritrea

2 - Stressed
Aden Gulf of Aden
3 - Serious
Area receives significant
Aden
Ethiopia
humanitarian
Djibouti
food assistance Socotra (accounted
Ethiopia
for in Phase
Djibouti classification) Socotra
> 25% of households
(accounted for in Phase classification)
meet 25-50% 3 - Crisis humanitarian food assistance 4 - Critical
> 25% of households meet 25-50%
Key forofthe caloric
Map needs through assistance (accounted for in Phase classification)
> 25% of households meet 25-50%1 - Minimal 4 - Emergency Key forofthe caloric
Map needs through assistance 1 - Acceptable 5 - Extremely critical
of> caloric
25% ofneeds households throughmeet > 50%
assistance > 25% of households meet 25-50%
IPC Acute Food needs
of caloric Insecurity through assistance2 - Stressed 5 - Famine of> caloric
25% ofneeds households throughmeet > 50%
assistance 2 - Alert
Phase classification
IPC Acute Malnutrition
of caloric needs through assistance
based on MUAC
> 25%
Phase Classification of households meet > 50% Areas with inadequate
EvidenceofLevel 3 - Crisis Areas with inadequate evidence > 25%
Phase Classification of households meet > 50% 3 - Serious
caloric needs through assistance evidence
EvidenceofLevel caloric needs through assistance
Acceptable 4 - Emergency Areas not analysed 4 - Critical Areas not analysed
* Medium
Evidence Level * Medium Acceptable
** 5 - Famine Evidence Level 5 - Extremely critical
High
Acceptable
***
* ( ** Μedium Evidence Level for about 30 districts. Please Map Symbols
refer to the Limitations of Analysis section) ** High ( ** Μedium Evidence Level for about 30 districts. Please refer to the Limitations of Analysis section)
Map Symbols
Scarce
Mediumevidence due to limited or
** Areas with inadequate evidence Urban settlement * Acceptable
*** Phase classification Urban settlement
no
High
*** humanitarian access
classification ** Scarce
Mediumevidence due to limited or
no humanitarian
High access
based on MUAC
Areas with inadequate
classification
Scarce evidence due to limited or
1 - Minimal Areas not analysed *** Scarce
1 - Minimal
evidence due to limited or evidence IDPs/other settlements
Acute Food Insecurity Situation IDPs/other
no humanitarian access
Projected June -settlements
classification December 2022 Projected Acute Malnutrition Situation
no humanitarian access Areas not analysed
June - December classification 2022
21 - Stressed
Minimal Map Symbols 21 - Stressed
Minimal
Map Symbols Evidence Level
Urban settlementArea receives significant
32 -- Crisis
Stressed classification 32 -- Crisis
Stressed * Acceptable
humanitarian food assistance Urban settlement
Saudi Arabia
(accounted for in Phase classification)
Saudi Arabia ** Medium
43 - Emergency
Crisis IDPs/other settlements Oman 43 - Emergency
Crisis
classification
*** High Oman

classification > 25% of households meet 25-50% IDPs/other settlements


Scarce evidence due
54 -- Famine
Emergency of caloric needs through assistance 54 -- Famine
Emergency classification to limited or no
Sa'ada Area receives significant Sa'ada
humanitarian access
5Areas
- Famine
with inadequateAlevidence
Jawf
humanitarian food assistance
Hadramaut > 25% of households meet > 50%
Al Maharah 5Areas
- Famine
with inadequate evidence Evidence Level
Hadramaut Al Maharah

(accounted for in Phase classification)of caloric needs through assistance


Al Jawf

* Acceptable
Areas not
withanalysed
Hajjah inadequate evidence > 25% of households meet 25-50%
Amran
Areas
Hajjah not
withanalysed
inadequate evidence
Amran
** Medium
Evidence Level *** High
of caloric needs through assistance
Areas
Map Symbols not analysed Marib
Amanat Al Asimah
Map SymbolsAreas not analysed Marib
Amanat Al Asimah Scarce evidence due
Al Mahwit
Sana'a * Acceptable Al Mahwit
to limited or no
> 25% of households
** meetMedium > 50%
Sana'a

Urban settlement Urban settlement humanitarian access


Map Symbols
Al Hudaydah
classification
Raymah Dhamar
Shabwah
*** High
of caloric needs through assistance Map Symbols Al Hudaydah
classification
Raymah Dhamar
Shabwah
Scarce evidence due to limitedArabian
or Sea
Urban settlement Al Bayda Evidence Level Urban settlement Al Bayda
Red Sea Red Sea Arabian Sea

IDPs/otherIbbsettlements no humanitarian access IDPs/other settlements


classification classification Al Dhale'e
Ibb
classification Al Dhale'e
classification 1 - Acceptable
IDPs/other Taizz settlements
* Acceptable
Abyan

IDPs/other Taizz settlements


Abyan

** Medium
Socotra Socotra
1 - Minimal 2 - Alert
Area
Eritrea
classification
receives significant
Lahj
*** GulfHigh Area
Eritrea
classification
receives significant Lahj

humanitarian food assistance Aden Scarce evidence due to limited2or- Stressed


of Aden
humanitarian food assistance Aden
Gulf of Aden
3 - Serious
Area receives significant no humanitarian access Area receives significant
Ethiopia Ethiopia
(accounted for in Phase classification) (accounted for in Phase classification)
Djibouti Socotra Djibouti Socotra

humanitarian food assistance 3 - Crisis humanitarian food assistance 4 - Critical


Key >
for the
(accounted
25%
for Map
of households meet
in Phase classification)
25-50% > 25% ofPhase
households meet 25-50%
(accounted
Key forofthe for inMap classification)
of caloric needs through assistance1 - Minimal 4 - Emergency caloric needs through assistance 1 - Acceptable 5 - Extremely critical

IPC Acute > 25% Food of households


Insecurity meet 25-50% > 25% of households meet 25-50% Phase classification
> 50% 2 - Stressed 5 - Famine
of> caloric
25% ofneeds
households
throughmeet of> caloric
25% ofneeds
households
throughmeet > 50% 2 - Alert
assistance IPC Acute Malnutrition assistance based on MUAC
of caloric needs through assistance3 - Crisis
Phase Classification of caloric needs through assistance 3 - Serious Areas with inadequate
> 25% of households meet > 50% Areas with inadequate evidence Phase Classification
> 25% of households meet > 50% evidence
EvidenceofLevel caloric needs through assistance4 - Emergency Areas not analysed EvidenceofLevel caloric needs through assistance 4 - Critical Areas not analysed

* MediumAcceptable * Acceptable
Evidence Level 5 - Famine Evidence Level 5 - Extremely critical Map Symbols
** Map Symbols ** Medium
High Phase classification
***
* Acceptable *** High
Acceptable
Scarce
( ** Μedium Evidence Level for about 30 districts. Please refer to the Limitations of Analysis section)
Mediumevidence due to limited or
Areas with inadequate evidenceUrban settlement * Mediumevidence due to limited or
( ** Μedium Evidence Level for about 30 districts. Please refer to the LimitationsUrban
based on MUAC
settlement
of Analysis section)
** no humanitarian access
High
classification ** Scarce
no humanitarian
High access
Areas with inadequate
classification
*** Scarce evidence due to limited or
Areas not analysed
IDPs/other settlements *** Scarce evidence due to limited or evidence IDPs/other settlements
classification
no humanitarian access classification no humanitarian access Areas not analysed
Map Symbols
Map Symbols Evidence Level
Urban settlementArea receives significant
classification humanitarian food assistance Urban settlement
* Acceptable
(accounted for in Phase classification)
** Medium
IDPs/other settlements classification
*** High
classification > 25% of households meet 25-50% IDPs/other settlements
Scarce evidence due
to limited or no
of caloric needs through assistance classification
Area receives significant humanitarian access
humanitarian food assistance > 25% of households meet > 50% Evidence Level
(accounted for in Phase classification)of caloric needs through assistance * Acceptable
> 25% of households meet Level
25-50% ** Medium
Evidence *** High
of caloric needs through assistance Scarce evidence due
* Acceptable
to limited or no
> 25% of households
** meet > 50%
Medium humanitarian access
*** Highassistance
of caloric needs through
Scarce evidence due to limited or
Evidence Level no humanitarian access

* Acceptable
** Medium
*** High
Scarce evidence due to limited or
no humanitarian access
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 19

ANNEX 2: ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY CURRENT (JAN – MAY 2022) AND


PROJECTION (JUNE – DEC 2022) COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS
Current Jan - May 2022 Projection June - Dec 2022
Governorate District
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5

Al Mahfad 20% 30% 30% 20% 0% 20% 20% 35% 25% 0%

Mudiyah 25% 30% 30% 15% 0% 25% 25% 30% 20% 0%

Jayshan 30% 30% 30% 10% 0% 25% 25% 35% 15% 0%

Lawdar 25% 35% 30% 10% 0% 25% 25% 35% 15% 0%

Sibah 25% 30% 40% 5% 0% 20% 25% 45% 10% 0%

Abyan Rassd 30% 30% 30% 10% 0% 20% 30% 35% 15% 0%

Sarar 25% 30% 35% 10% 0% 25% 20% 40% 15% 0%

Al Wadi 20% 25% 35% 20% 0% 20% 20% 35% 25% 0%

Ahwar 20% 30% 30% 20% 0% 15% 20% 40% 25% 0%

Zinjibar 20% 25% 40% 15% 0% 20% 15% 45% 20% 0%

Khanfar 20% 25% 40% 15% 0% 15% 20% 45% 20% 0%

Dar Sad 20% 25% 35% 20% 0% 15% 10% 40% 30% 5%

Ash Shaykh Othman 25% 35% 25% 15% 0% 25% 30% 25% 20% 0%

Al Mansurah 25% 35% 25% 15% 0% 25% 30% 30% 15% 0%

Al Burayqah 20% 25% 35% 20% 0% 20% 20% 40% 20% 0%


Aden
At Tawahi 25% 35% 30% 10% 0% 25% 35% 25% 15% 0%

Al Mualla 25% 35% 30% 10% 0% 20% 35% 30% 15% 0%

Critar - Sirah 25% 35% 30% 10% 0% 25% 35% 25% 15% 0%

Khur Maksar 25% 35% 30% 10% 0% 25% 35% 25% 15% 0%

Numan 20% 30% 30% 20% 0% 20% 25% 35% 20% 0%

Nati 20% 25% 35% 20% 0% 20% 20% 40% 20% 0%

Maswarah 15% 25% 40% 20% 0% 15% 20% 40% 25% 0%

As Sawmaah 20% 35% 35% 10% 0% 20% 30% 35% 15% 0%

Az Zahir 20% 30% 30% 20% 0% 20% 25% 30% 25% 0%

Dhi Na’im 20% 30% 35% 15% 0% 20% 30% 30% 20% 0%

At Taffah 25% 35% 30% 10% 0% 25% 30% 30% 15% 0%

Mukayras 20% 25% 35% 20% 0% 20% 25% 30% 25% 0%

Al Bayda city 20% 30% 40% 10% 0% 20% 25% 45% 10% 0%

Al Bayda 20% 30% 40% 10% 0% 20% 25% 40% 15% 0%


Al Bayda
As Sawadiyah 20% 25% 35% 20% 0% 20% 25% 30% 25% 0%

Radman Al Awad 20% 30% 30% 20% 0% 20% 25% 30% 25% 0%

Rada’ 20% 30% 40% 10% 0% 20% 25% 40% 15% 0%

Al Quraishyah 20% 30% 35% 15% 0% 20% 25% 35% 20% 0%

Wald Rabi’ 20% 30% 35% 15% 0% 20% 25% 35% 20% 0%

Al A’rsh 20% 35% 35% 10% 0% 20% 35% 30% 15% 0%

Sabah 20% 25% 35% 20% 0% 20% 20% 40% 20% 0%

Ar Ryashyyah 20% 25% 40% 15% 0% 20% 25% 35% 20% 0%

Ash Sharyah 20% 30% 35% 15% 0% 20% 30% 30% 20% 0%

Al Malagim 20% 25% 40% 15% 0% 20% 20% 40% 20% 0%


YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 20

Current Jan - May 2022 Projection June - Dec 2022


Governorate District
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5

Qatabah 25% 30% 30% 15% 0% 25% 25% 30% 20% 0%

Ash Shuayb 25% 20% 40% 15% 0% 25% 15% 40% 20% 0%

Al Hasayn 20% 25% 35% 20% 0% 20% 20% 35% 25% 0%

Ad Dali 25% 25% 30% 20% 0% 20% 25% 30% 25% 0%

Al Dhale’e Jahaf 20% 30% 30% 20% 0% 20% 20% 35% 25% 0%

Al Azariq 20% 20% 25% 35% 0% 15% 20% 25% 35% 5%

Juban 25% 35% 25% 15% 0% 25% 30% 25% 20% 0%

Damt 10% 30% 40% 20% 0% 10% 25% 40% 25% 0%

Al Husha 15% 25% 35% 25% 0% 15% 20% 35% 30% 0%

Ad Durayhimi 15% 30% 30% 25% 0% 10% 25% 35% 30% 0%

Hays 20% 25% 30% 25% 0% 10% 25% 35% 30% 0%

Al Khukhah 20% 35% 25% 20% 0% 20% 25% 30% 25% 0%

At Tuhayta 10% 15% 40% 35% 0% 10% 10% 35% 40% 5%

Az Zuhrah 10% 15% 40% 35% 0% 10% 10% 40% 35% 5%

Alluheyah 15% 25% 45% 15% 0% 15% 20% 45% 20% 0%

Al Munirah 10% 20% 50% 20% 0% 10% 15% 50% 25% 0%

Al Qanawis 10% 20% 45% 25% 0% 10% 15% 45% 30% 0%

Az Zaydiyah 15% 20% 45% 20% 0% 10% 20% 45% 25% 0%

Al Marawi’ah 15% 20% 50% 15% 0% 10% 20% 50% 20% 0%

As Sukhnah 10% 20% 55% 15% 0% 10% 15% 55% 20% 0%

Jabal Ra’s 10% 15% 50% 25% 0% 5% 10% 50% 35% 0%

Al Mina 10% 15% 50% 25% 0% 5% 10% 55% 30% 0%


Al Hudaydah
Zabid 10% 25% 45% 20% 0% 10% 20% 45% 25% 0%

Al Mighlaf 10% 25% 50% 15% 0% 10% 20% 50% 20% 0%

Ad Dahi 10% 25% 45% 20% 0% 10% 20% 50% 20% 0%

Bajil 15% 25% 45% 15% 0% 10% 20% 45% 25% 0%

Al Hajjaylah 10% 20% 55% 15% 0% 10% 15% 55% 20% 0%

Bura 15% 25% 50% 10% 0% 10% 20% 50% 20% 0%


Al Mansuriyah 10% 20% 55% 15% 0% 10% 15% 55% 20% 0%
Bayt Al Faqiah 10% 25% 35% 30% 0% 10% 15% 40% 35% 0%

Al Hawak 5% 15% 45% 35% 0% 5% 10% 40% 40% 5%

Al Hali 5% 10% 50% 35% 0% 5% 10% 40% 40% 5%

Al Garrahi 10% 20% 45% 25% 0% 5% 15% 50% 30% 0%

As Salif 10% 20% 50% 20% 0% 10% 15% 50% 25% 0%

Kamaran 10% 20% 50% 20% 0% 10% 15% 50% 25% 0%

Al Jawf Khabb wa
Khabb wa ash
ash Sha’af
Sha’af 10%
10% 25%
25% 40%
40% 25%
25% 0%
0% 10%
10% 15%
15% 40%
40% 30%
30% 5%
5%
Al Jawf Al Humaydat
Humaydat 20% 25% 40% 15% 0% 20% 20% 40% 20% 0%
Al 20% 25% 40% 15% 0% 20% 20% 40% 20% 0%
Al Matammah
Al Matammah 15%
15% 20%
20% 45%
45% 20%
20% 0%
0% 15%
15% 20%
20% 40%
40% 25%
25% 0%
0%
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 21

Current Jan - May 2022 Projection June - Dec 2022


Governorate District
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5
Az Zahir 10% 20% 45% 25% 0% 10% 15% 45% 30% 0%
Al Maton 20% 25% 40% 15% 0% 20% 25% 35% 20% 0%
Bart Al Anan 10% 15% 50% 25% 0% 10% 10% 45% 30% 5%
Rajuzah 20% 25% 40% 15% 0% 20% 25% 35% 20% 0%

Al Jawf Kharab Al Marashi 10% 15% 50% 25% 0% 10% 10% 50% 30% 0%

Al Hazm 15% 25% 35% 25% 0% 15% 20% 30% 35% 0%


Al Maslub 20% 25% 40% 15% 0% 20% 25% 35% 20% 0%
Al Ghayl 10% 20% 50% 20% 0% 10% 15% 50% 25% 0%
Al Khalq 15% 20% 35% 30% 0% 15% 15% 35% 35% 0%
Shahin 50% 40% 10% 0% 0% 40% 45% 15% 0% 0%
Hat 50% 45% 5% 0% 0% 40% 50% 10% 0% 0%
Hawf 40% 40% 15% 5% 0% 35% 40% 20% 5% 0%
Al Ghaydhah 45% 35% 15% 5% 0% 40% 30% 25% 5% 0%
Al Maharah Manar 40% 35% 20% 5% 0% 35% 25% 30% 10% 0%
Al Masilah 50% 30% 15% 5% 0% 35% 30% 25% 10% 0%
Sayhut 50% 40% 10% 0% 0% 45% 40% 15% 0% 0%
Qishn 40% 35% 20% 5% 0% 35% 35% 25% 5% 0%
Haswin 45% 35% 15% 5% 0% 35% 35% 25% 5% 0%

Shibam Kawkaban 20% 25% 40% 15% 0% 15% 20% 45% 20% 0%

At Tawilah 20% 30% 35% 15% 0% 20% 25% 35% 20% 0%


Ar Rujum 15% 25% 35% 25% 0% 15% 20% 30% 35% 0%
Al Khabt 15% 20% 40% 25% 0% 10% 15% 45% 30% 0%
Al Mahwit Milhan 20% 25% 35% 20% 0% 15% 20% 40% 25% 0%
Hufash 20% 25% 40% 15% 0% 20% 20% 40% 20% 0%
Bani Sa’d 10% 20% 45% 25% 0% 10% 15% 40% 30% 5%

Al Mahwait City 15% 20% 45% 20% 0% 15% 15% 45% 25% 0%

Al Mahwait 10% 15% 50% 25% 0% 10% 10% 50% 30% 0%

Old city 20% 35% 35% 10% 0% 20% 30% 35% 15% 0%

Shu’aub 15% 30% 40% 15% 0% 15% 25% 40% 20% 0%


Az’zal 15% 35% 40% 10% 0% 15% 30% 40% 15% 0%
Assafi’yah 15% 25% 35% 25% 0% 15% 20% 35% 30% 0%
Amanat Al As Sabain 15% 35% 30% 20% 0% 15% 30% 30% 25% 0%
Asimah
Al Wahdah 15% 30% 35% 20% 0% 15% 25% 35% 25% 0%
At Tahrir 15% 35% 30% 20% 0% 15% 35% 25% 25% 0%
Ma’ain 15% 25% 40% 20% 0% 15% 20% 45% 20% 0%
Ath’thaorah 20% 35% 35% 10% 0% 20% 30% 35% 15% 0%
Bani Al Harith 10% 20% 40% 30% 0% 10% 15% 40% 30% 5%
Harf Sufyan 10% 15% 50% 25% 0% 10% 10% 40% 35% 5%
Huth 15% 20% 50% 15% 0% 15% 20% 45% 20% 0%
Amran
Al Ashah 10% 15% 50% 25% 0% 10% 10% 45% 30% 5%
Al Qaflah 10% 15% 50% 25% 0% 10% 10% 50% 30% 0%
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 22

Current Jan - May 2022 Projection June - Dec 2022


Governorate District
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5
Shaharah 20% 25% 40% 15% 0% 15% 20% 45% 20% 0%
Al Madan 15% 20% 45% 20% 0% 15% 15% 45% 25% 0%
Suwayr 15% 25% 40% 20% 0% 15% 20% 40% 25% 0%

Habur Zulaymah 15% 20% 40% 25% 0% 10% 15% 40% 30% 5%

Dhi Bin 15% 15% 45% 25% 0% 15% 10% 45% 30% 0%
Kharif 10% 15% 55% 20% 0% 10% 10% 60% 20% 0%
Raydah 20% 25% 40% 15% 0% 20% 20% 40% 20% 0%

Jabal Iyal Yazid 15% 20% 45% 20% 0% 15% 15% 45% 25% 0%
Amran
As Sudah 15% 15% 40% 30% 0% 10% 10% 40% 35% 5%
As Sawd 20% 15% 35% 30% 0% 10% 10% 40% 35% 5%
Amran 10% 20% 50% 20% 0% 10% 15% 50% 25% 0%
Maswar 20% 25% 35% 20% 0% 15% 20% 40% 25% 0%
Thula 25% 30% 35% 10% 0% 20% 25% 35% 20% 0%
Iyal Surayh 20% 30% 40% 10% 0% 20% 25% 40% 15% 0%
Khamir 15% 20% 45% 20% 0% 15% 15% 50% 20% 0%
Bani Suraim 25% 30% 35% 10% 0% 25% 20% 40% 15% 0%
Al Hada 20% 25% 45% 10% 0% 20% 20% 45% 15% 0%
Jahran 25% 30% 35% 10% 0% 25% 25% 35% 15% 0%

Jabal Ash sharq 10% 15% 50% 25% 0% 10% 10% 50% 30% 0%

Maghirib Ans 25% 30% 35% 10% 0% 25% 25% 30% 20% 0%
Utmah 15% 25% 40% 20% 0% 15% 20% 40% 25% 0%
Wusab Al Ali 15% 20% 45% 20% 0% 15% 20% 40% 25% 0%
Dhamar
Wusab As Safil 10% 15% 50% 25% 0% 10% 15% 40% 35% 0%

Dhamar City 10% 20% 40% 30% 0% 10% 15% 40% 35% 0%
Mayfa’at Anss 20% 25% 45% 10% 0% 20% 20% 45% 15% 0%
Anss 10% 15% 55% 20% 0% 10% 15% 55% 20% 0%

Dawran Aness 20% 30% 35% 15% 0% 20% 25% 35% 20% 0%

Al Manar 15% 20% 45% 20% 0% 10% 15% 50% 25% 0%


Rumah 35% 40% 20% 5% 0% 35% 35% 25% 5% 0%
Thamud 35% 40% 25% 0% 0% 35% 30% 30% 5% 0%
Al Qaff 40% 45% 15% 0% 0% 30% 40% 25% 5% 0%

Zamakh wa Manwokh 45% 40% 15% 0% 0% 40% 35% 20% 5% 0%

Hajar As Sayar 50% 40% 10% 0% 0% 45% 35% 15% 5% 0%

Hadramaut Al Abr 25% 35% 25% 15% 0% 20% 25% 30% 25% 0%
Al Qatn 40% 40% 20% 0% 0% 35% 35% 25% 5% 0%
Shibam 40% 40% 15% 5% 0% 40% 35% 20% 5% 0%
Sah 50% 30% 20% 0% 0% 40% 35% 20% 5% 0%
Sayun 40% 35% 25% 0% 0% 35% 35% 25% 5% 0%
Tarim 40% 35% 20% 5% 0% 35% 35% 25% 5% 0%
As Sawm 35% 35% 25% 5% 0% 35% 25% 30% 10% 0%
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 23

Current Jan - May 2022 Projection June - Dec 2022


Governorate District
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5
Ar Raydah wa Qus-
45% 30% 25% 0% 0% 35% 30% 35% 0% 0%
sayar
Ad Dis 40% 40% 20% 0% 0% 40% 40% 20% 0% 0%
Ash Shihr 30% 20% 30% 20% 0% 25% 20% 35% 20% 0%

Ghayl bin Yamin 25% 20% 35% 20% 0% 25% 20% 30% 25% 0%

Ghayl Bawazir 45% 20% 30% 5% 0% 35% 25% 35% 5% 0%

Dawan 50% 40% 10% 0% 0% 45% 40% 15% 0% 0%


Wadi Al Ayn 35% 35% 20% 10% 0% 35% 30% 25% 10% 0%
Hadramaut Rakhyah 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 35% 25% 25% 15% 0%
Amd 30% 35% 30% 5% 0% 25% 30% 35% 10% 0%
Ad Dulayah 30% 50% 20% 0% 0% 30% 40% 25% 5% 0%
Yabuth 45% 40% 15% 0% 0% 40% 40% 20% 0% 0%
Hajar 20% 35% 40% 5% 0% 15% 25% 45% 15% 0%
Brum Mayfah 35% 30% 30% 5% 0% 25% 30% 35% 10% 0%
Al Mukalla 20% 30% 40% 10% 0% 20% 25% 45% 10% 0%

Al Mukalla City 30% 35% 30% 5% 0% 25% 30% 35% 10% 0%

Haridah 35% 35% 25% 5% 0% 30% 30% 30% 10% 0%


Bakil Al Mir 15% 25% 35% 25% 0% 15% 20% 30% 30% 5%
Haradh 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Midi 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Abs 0% 5% 45% 40% 10% 0% 5% 30% 50% 15%
Hayran 15% 25% 35% 25% 0% 15% 20% 25% 35% 5%
Mustaba 15% 20% 40% 25% 0% 15% 15% 35% 30% 5%
Kushar 10% 15% 50% 25% 0% 10% 10% 50% 30% 0%
Al Jamimah 10% 15% 45% 30% 0% 10% 10% 45% 35% 0%

Kuhlan Ash Sharaf 10% 15% 45% 30% 0% 10% 10% 45% 35% 0%

Aflah Ash Shawm 20% 25% 40% 15% 0% 20% 20% 40% 20% 0%

Khayran Al Muharraq 10% 15% 50% 25% 0% 10% 10% 50% 30% 0%

Hajjah Aslem 5% 10% 45% 35% 5% 5% 5% 45% 40% 5%


Qafl Shamer 15% 25% 35% 25% 0% 15% 20% 35% 30% 0%

Aflah Al Yaman 20% 25% 40% 15% 0% 15% 20% 45% 20% 0%

Al Mahabishah 25% 20% 45% 10% 0% 20% 15% 50% 15% 0%

Al Miftah 10% 10% 45% 35% 0% 5% 10% 45% 40% 0%

Al Maghrabah 5% 15% 45% 30% 5% 5% 15% 40% 35% 5%

Kuhlan Affar 20% 25% 40% 15% 0% 20% 20% 40% 20% 0%
Sharas 20% 25% 45% 10% 0% 20% 20% 45% 15% 0%
Mabyan 15% 20% 45% 20% 0% 15% 15% 45% 25% 0%
Ash Shahil 15% 25% 45% 15% 0% 15% 20% 50% 15% 0%
Ku’aydinah 5% 15% 50% 30% 0% 5% 10% 50% 35% 0%
Wadhrah 5% 15% 55% 25% 0% 5% 10% 55% 30% 0%
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 24

Current Jan - May 2022 Projection June - Dec 2022


Governorate District
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5
Bani Qa’is 15% 25% 35% 25% 0% 15% 20% 35% 30% 0%

Ash Shaghadirah 15% 25% 45% 15% 0% 15% 20% 40% 25% 0%

Najrah 15% 20% 50% 15% 0% 10% 15% 55% 20% 0%

Bani Al Awam 15% 25% 40% 20% 0% 15% 20% 40% 25% 0%
Hajjah
Hajjah City 15% 20% 40% 25% 0% 15% 15% 40% 30% 0%
Hajjah 10% 15% 50% 25% 0% 10% 10% 50% 30% 0%
Washhah 10% 20% 55% 15% 0% 10% 15% 50% 25% 0%
Qarah 10% 20% 50% 20% 0% 10% 15% 50% 25% 0%
Al Qafr 20% 35% 25% 20% 0% 20% 30% 30% 20% 0%

Yarim 25% 35% 30% 10% 0% 25% 30% 30% 15% 0%

Ar Radmah 20% 25% 40% 15% 0% 20% 20% 40% 20% 0%

An Nadirah 25% 30% 35% 10% 0% 25% 30% 30% 15% 0%

Ash Sha’ir 20% 30% 40% 10% 0% 20% 25% 40% 15% 0%

As Saddah 20% 30% 30% 20% 0% 20% 25% 35% 20% 0%

Al Makhadir 30% 40% 25% 5% 0% 25% 30% 35% 10% 0%

Hubaysh 30% 40% 25% 5% 0% 30% 35% 25% 10% 0%

Hazm Al Udayn 20% 25% 35% 20% 0% 20% 20% 35% 25% 0%

Far Al Udayn 20% 25% 35% 20% 0% 20% 20% 35% 25% 0%
Ibb
Al Udayn 20% 25% 40% 15% 0% 20% 25% 35% 20% 0%

Jiblah 25% 40% 30% 5% 0% 25% 35% 30% 10% 0%

Ba’dan 30% 40% 25% 5% 0% 30% 35% 25% 10% 0%

As Sabrah 25% 40% 20% 15% 0% 25% 35% 20% 20% 0%

As Sayyani 20% 35% 25% 20% 0% 20% 30% 25% 25% 0%

Dhi As Sufal 20% 35% 25% 20% 0% 20% 25% 30% 25% 0%

Mudhaykhirah 20% 30% 30% 20% 0% 20% 25% 30% 25% 0%

Al Mashannah 20% 35% 30% 15% 0% 20% 30% 30% 20% 0%

Al Dhihar 25% 30% 30% 15% 0% 25% 25% 30% 20% 0%

Ibb 20% 35% 35% 10% 0% 20% 30% 35% 15% 0%

Al Had 30% 40% 25% 5% 0% 30% 40% 20% 10% 0%

Yafi 30% 40% 20% 10% 0% 30% 35% 20% 15% 0%

Al Maflahi 30% 40% 25% 5% 0% 30% 40% 20% 10% 0%

Yahr 30% 40% 20% 10% 0% 30% 35% 20% 15% 0%

Habil Jabr 30% 35% 25% 10% 0% 30% 35% 20% 15% 0%

Lahj Halmin 25% 35% 30% 10% 0% 25% 30% 30% 15% 0%

Radfan 30% 40% 25% 5% 0% 30% 40% 20% 10% 0%

Al Malah 25% 30% 30% 15% 0% 25% 30% 25% 20% 0%

Al Musaymir 20% 25% 35% 20% 0% 20% 25% 30% 25% 0%

Al Qubaytah 20% 25% 35% 20% 0% 20% 20% 30% 30% 0%

Tur Al Bahah 35% 20% 25% 20% 0% 35% 15% 30% 20% 0%
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 25

Current Jan - May 2022 Projection June - Dec 2022


Governorate District
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5

Al Maqatirah 25% 30% 25% 20% 0% 20% 25% 30% 25% 0%


Al Madaribah Wa Al
25% 35% 20% 20% 0% 25% 30% 25% 20% 0%
Lahj Aarah
Al Hawtah 35% 40% 20% 5% 0% 35% 40% 15% 10% 0%

Tuban 35% 30% 25% 10% 0% 30% 25% 30% 15% 0%

Harib al Qaramish 15% 25% 40% 20% 0% 15% 20% 40% 25% 0%

Bidbadah 10% 15% 55% 20% 0% 10% 15% 50% 25% 0%

Sirwah 10% 20% 50% 20% 0% 10% 15% 50% 25% 0%

Majzar 10% 20% 35% 35% 0% 10% 15% 30% 45% 0%

Mahliyah 20% 25% 45% 10% 0% 20% 20% 40% 20% 0%

Rahabah 20% 35% 30% 15% 0% 20% 30% 30% 20% 0%

Al Abdiyah 10% 20% 35% 35% 0% 10% 15% 30% 45% 0%


Marib
Medghal 10% 20% 35% 35% 0% 10% 15% 30% 45% 0%

Harib 25% 35% 30% 10% 0% 20% 25% 35% 20% 0%

Raghwan 30% 30% 30% 10% 0% 25% 20% 35% 20% 0%

Marib City 20% 30% 40% 10% 0% 15% 20% 45% 20% 0%

Marib 25% 25% 35% 15% 0% 20% 20% 40% 20% 0%

Jabal Murad 15% 25% 40% 20% 0% 15% 20% 40% 25% 0%

Al Jubah 30% 35% 25% 10% 0% 25% 25% 30% 20% 0%

Bilad At Ta’am 15% 25% 45% 15% 0% 15% 20% 45% 20% 0%

As Salafiyah 10% 25% 45% 20% 0% 10% 20% 45% 25% 0%

Al Jabin 15% 30% 45% 10% 0% 15% 25% 45% 15% 0%


Raymah
Mazhar 10% 20% 45% 25% 0% 10% 15% 40% 30% 5%

Kusmah 5% 15% 55% 25% 0% 5% 10% 50% 35% 0%

Al Jafariyah 5% 20% 50% 25% 0% 5% 20% 45% 30% 0%

Baqim 5% 10% 60% 25% 0% 5% 10% 55% 30% 0%

Qatabir 5% 15% 55% 25% 0% 5% 10% 55% 30% 0%

Monabbih 10% 20% 55% 15% 0% 10% 15% 55% 20% 0%

Ghamr 15% 20% 45% 20% 0% 15% 15% 45% 25% 0%

Razih 15% 20% 45% 20% 0% 15% 15% 45% 25% 0%

Shada’a 15% 25% 45% 15% 0% 15% 20% 45% 20% 0%

Al Dhaher 10% 20% 45% 25% 0% 10% 15% 45% 30% 0%


Sa’ada
Haydan 10% 20% 50% 20% 0% 10% 15% 50% 25% 0%

Saqayn 15% 20% 45% 20% 0% 15% 15% 45% 25% 0%

Majz 15% 30% 40% 15% 0% 15% 25% 40% 20% 0%

Sahar 10% 25% 45% 20% 0% 10% 20% 45% 25% 0%

As Safra 20% 25% 45% 10% 0% 20% 20% 40% 20% 0%

Al Hashwah 15% 20% 40% 25% 0% 15% 15% 40% 30% 0%

Kitaf wa Al Boqe’e 15% 30% 45% 10% 0% 15% 25% 45% 15% 0%
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 26

Current Jan - May 2022 Projection June - Dec 2022


Governorate District
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5

Sa’ada Sa’adah 10% 20% 45% 25% 0% 10% 15% 50% 25% 0%

Hamdan 20% 25% 45% 10% 0% 20% 25% 40% 15% 0%

Arhab 20% 30% 40% 10% 0% 20% 25% 40% 15% 0%

Nihm 20% 25% 35% 20% 0% 20% 20% 40% 20% 0%

Bani Hushaysh 25% 35% 30% 10% 0% 25% 30% 30% 15% 0%

Sanhan 20% 35% 35% 10% 0% 20% 30% 30% 20% 0%

Bilad Ar Rus 20% 25% 40% 15% 0% 20% 25% 35% 20% 0%

Bani Matar 15% 25% 45% 15% 0% 15% 20% 45% 20% 0%

Al Haymah Ad
20% 30% 40% 10% 0% 20% 25% 35% 20% 0%
Dakhiliyah
Sana’a
Al Haymah
20% 30% 40% 10% 0% 20% 20% 40% 20% 0%
Al Kharijiyah
Manakhah 15% 30% 35% 20% 0% 15% 25% 35% 25% 0%

Sa’fan 15% 30% 40% 15% 0% 15% 25% 40% 20% 0%

Khwlan 20% 25% 35% 20% 0% 20% 20% 35% 25% 0%

Attyal 20% 35% 30% 15% 0% 20% 30% 30% 20% 0%

Bani Dhabyan 10% 20% 40% 30% 0% 10% 15% 35% 35% 5%

Al Husn 15% 25% 45% 15% 0% 15% 20% 45% 20% 0%

Jihanah 20% 25% 40% 15% 0% 20% 25% 35% 20% 0%

Dahr 30% 30% 30% 10% 0% 25% 30% 30% 15% 0%

At Talh 30% 30% 30% 10% 0% 25% 30% 30% 15% 0%

Jardan 30% 25% 30% 15% 0% 25% 20% 35% 20% 0%

Armaa 35% 25% 25% 15% 0% 30% 20% 30% 20% 0%

Osaylan 20% 20% 40% 20% 0% 15% 20% 40% 25% 0%

Ayn 15% 20% 40% 25% 0% 15% 20% 40% 25% 0%

Bayhan 20% 20% 40% 20% 0% 15% 20% 40% 25% 0%

Markhah Al Olya 25% 20% 30% 25% 0% 15% 20% 35% 30% 0%

Shabwah Markhah As Sufla 20% 25% 40% 15% 0% 20% 20% 40% 20% 0%

Nisab 20% 30% 35% 15% 0% 20% 20% 40% 20% 0%

Hatib 25% 20% 35% 20% 0% 20% 20% 35% 25% 0%

As Said 30% 30% 30% 10% 0% 30% 25% 35% 10% 0%

Ataq 35% 30% 25% 10% 0% 30% 30% 25% 15% 0%

Habban 30% 30% 25% 15% 0% 25% 30% 30% 15% 0%

Ar Rawdah 35% 30% 25% 10% 0% 30% 30% 25% 15% 0%

Mayfaah 35% 30% 25% 10% 0% 30% 30% 25% 15% 0%

Radum 35% 30% 25% 10% 0% 30% 30% 25% 15% 0%

Hadibu 40% 30% 25% 5% 0% 30% 30% 35% 5% 0%


Socotra Qalansiyah wa Abd
30% 35% 25% 10% 0% 20% 30% 35% 15% 0%
Al Kuri
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 27

Current Jan - May 2022 Projection June - Dec 2022


Governorate District
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5

Mawiyah 10% 20% 55% 15% 0% 10% 15% 50% 25% 0%

Shara’b As Salam 10% 25% 50% 15% 0% 10% 20% 50% 20% 0%

Shara’b Ar Rawnah 15% 25% 35% 25% 0% 15% 20% 35% 30% 0%

Maqbanah 20% 25% 25% 30% 0% 20% 20% 25% 35% 0%

Dimnat Khadir 15% 35% 35% 15% 0% 15% 30% 30% 25% 0%

As Silw 10% 25% 35% 30% 0% 10% 20% 35% 35% 0%

Hayfan 20% 30% 35% 15% 0% 20% 30% 30% 20% 0%

At Ta’iziyah 15% 25% 35% 25% 0% 15% 20% 35% 30% 0%

Sama 20% 35% 30% 15% 0% 20% 35% 25% 20% 0%

Al Makha 20% 40% 30% 10% 0% 20% 40% 25% 15% 0%

Dhubab 30% 45% 20% 5% 0% 30% 45% 15% 10% 0%

Taizz Mawza 20% 35% 30% 15% 0% 20% 30% 30% 20% 0%

Jabal Habashi 20% 30% 30% 20% 0% 20% 25% 30% 25% 0%

Mashrah Wa Hadnan 10% 45% 30% 15% 0% 10% 45% 25% 20% 0%

Sabir Al Mawadim 20% 35% 30% 15% 0% 20% 35% 25% 20% 0%

Al Misrakh 10% 25% 50% 15% 0% 10% 20% 50% 20% 0%

Ash Shamayatayn 30% 40% 20% 10% 0% 30% 40% 15% 15% 0%

Al Waziyah 15% 35% 30% 20% 0% 15% 30% 30% 25% 0%

Al Mudhaffar 25% 40% 25% 10% 0% 25% 30% 30% 15% 0%

Al Qahirah 20% 40% 30% 10% 0% 20% 40% 25% 15% 0%

Salah 20% 25% 35% 20% 0% 20% 25% 30% 25% 0%

Al Maafer 15% 30% 35% 20% 0% 15% 25% 35% 25% 0%

Al Mawasit 15% 35% 30% 20% 0% 15% 35% 30% 20% 0%

Grand Total 5,784,500 8,557,000 11,715,000 5,619,500 31,000 5,470,000 7,218,500 11,712,000 7,140,500 161,000
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 28

ANNEX 3: ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION CURRENT


(JAN- MAY 2022) AND PROJECTION (JUNE – DEC 2022)
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 29
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 30
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 31
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 32
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 33
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 34
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 35
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 36
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 37

ANNEX 4: IPC RISK OF FAMINE ANALYSIS, FEBRUARY 2022

Introduction: A Risk of Famine (RoF)2 analysis was conducted in Yemen between 10 February and 22 February and covered both
IRG and SBA controlled areas. The opportunity to conduct such analysis was discussed with, and agreed upon by GSU and senior
managers from the main IPC partners in Yemen (FAO, FEWSNET, FSAC, WFP and UNICEF) as well as representatives from resource
partners on 4 February. It was then introduced to institutional representatives in IRG and SBA during the early stages of the IPC
analysis securing their agreement to proceed. The RoF methodology was presented in plenary in Sana’a and Aden on 6-7 February.
The analysis teams also agreed to proceed.

The IPC RoF was conducted in parallel to the last stages of the IPC analysis in Aden and Sana’a with the objective to detect districts
at risk of famine in the projection period June-December 2022, in case a worst-case scenario with reasonable chances to happen
would materialize.

Methodology: The RoF was conducted by selected members of the analysis teams from governorates including districts shortlisted
for this analysis (mainly WFP, FSAC, FAO, WHO), and by nutritionists (mainly WFP and UNICEF). The analysis focused only on the
projection period June-December 2022. The analysis was facilitated by GSU staff with previous experience of RoF analyses. The
presence of GSU was instrumental to ensure adequate harmonization of the analysis process during the main stages listed below:
i. Identification of first shortlisted districts potentially eligible for RoF;
ii. Selection of districts eligible for RoF analysis;
iii. RoF analysis in selected districts.

The following criteria helped to shortlist districts (1st step): presence of populations in IPC Phase 5 in the current or projection period;
and/or ongoing active conflict in proximity or within the districts; and/or high volatility of key drivers/contributing factors of food
insecurity from the assumptions for the most likely scenario. Twenty-one districts were shortlisted by the GSU and analysis teams.

After looking carefully at the worksheets and discussing among the RoF analysis teams, only 17 were retained as eligible (2nd step).

The actual RoF analysis (step 3), was heavily influenced by considerations of conflict patterns, humanitarian food assistance,
population’s mobility and livelihoods. The element of conflict is predominant in discussions around famine in Yemen. The immediate
and indirect impact on population displacement; humanitarian accessibility by actors and beneficiaries; livelihoods; functionality of
market, seaports, supply chains and food systems; cost of transport of basic commodities; and functionality of nutrition and health
services was duly assessed during the RoF analysis. These factors were instrumental to detect if the collapse of one or multiple
assumptions from the most likely scenario would lead to a risk of famine in a set worst-case scenario for the 17 districts.

Disclaimer: The RoF analysis was completed before the onset of the Ukrainian crisis, and does not consider its likely impact on
food prices in the most likely and worst case scenarios. Yemen is highly dependent on imports of main commodities from the
international market, including wheat grains and flour, for which Ukraine and Russia are among the main suppliers globally. The
analysis does not consider the likely increase of the prices of main commodities in the wholesale and retail markets of Yemen. A
close, continuous monitoring of price trends in the main markets of Yemen must be ensured to detect further erosion of Yemenis’
purchasing power, including especially in those markets supplying people in the vulnerable districts included in the RoF analysis.
In particular, districts with comparatively lower dependency on HFA and higher reliance on markets, such as the urban district of Al
Hudaydah city (especially Al Hali) should be under close watch.

Results: The GSU facilitated the RoF analyses with the analysis teams in 19 districts in SBA controlled areas and two districts in
IRG areas. Out of the 21 districts initially shortlisted, 17 were considered eligible for an RoF, while the other four districts (initially
shortlisted) did not show the minimum levels of severity required to run a RoF analysis, after further reflection. Two districts were
eventually identified as at risk of famine within the projection period. These districts are: Abs and Hayran (from Hajjah governorate).
Below, a summary table of results by district.

2 Risk of Famine Guidance Note is available here: https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/resources/resources-details/en/c/1152897/


YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 38

District Shortlisted RoF (step 2 and


Prog. District (First shortlist) Governorate SBA/IRG
for RoF (step 1) 3)

1 Abs Hajjah SBA √ √


2 Hayran Hajjah SBA √ √*
3 Harad Hajjah SBA √ ×*
4 Midi Hajjah SBA √ ×*
5 Al Maghrabah Hajjah SBA √ ×
6 Aslem Hajjah SBA √ ×
7 Mustaba Hajjah SBA √ ×
8 Bakil al Mir Hajjah SBA √ ×

9 Al Hali Al Hudaydah SBA √ ×**


10 Al Hawak Al Hudaydah SBA √ ×**

11 Al Thuhayta Al Hudaydah SBA √ ×

12 Ad Durahyimi Al Hudaydah SBA √ ×

13 As Zurah Al Hudaydah SBA √ ×

14 Harf Sufyan Amran SBA √ ×


15 Aswdah Amran SBA √ ×
16 Asswad Amran SBA √ ×
17 Majzar Marib SBA √ ×
18 Al Zabir Al Jawf SBA ×
19 Al Khalq Al Jawf SBA ×
20 Al Azariq Al Dhalae IRG ×
21 Dar Saad Aden IRG ×

√*: District at Risk of Famine under assumptions linked to a worst-case scenario directly extrapolated from food security, nutrition and
mortality indicators collected in neighboring Abs district, and in case the district population is not inferior to 10,000 people despite
the escalation in conflict, which is a pivotal hypothesis to the worst-case scenario.
×*: Districts not classified in the main analysis due to unavailability of data. More info required to ascertain if the severity of the
situation warrants a Risk of Famine.
×**: District not at Risk of Famine within the projection period (Jun-Dec 2022), but likely to shift into famine should a worst-case
scenario apply for a protracted period of time beyond the projection period.
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 39

A succinct summary of the main findings, disaggregated by governorate, is presented below. For more information, the RoF
worksheets can be shared upon request.

IPC – YEMEN IPC RISK OF FAMINE ANALYSIS, February 2022

1. Hajjah governorate
Eight districts from Hajjah were promoted by the analysis team for the RoF analysis for the projection period (June-December 2022).
Four of them (Abs, Haradh, Hayran and Midi) experience ongoing conflict in vast parts of the districts at the time of writing. While
the most likely scenario estimates status quo conditions in terms of conflict coverage and intensity, the realistic worst-case scenario
depicts an escalation in conflict, spreading to southern sub-districts of Abs where IDP camp sites are currently located, and to the
majority of territories in Midi, Haradh and Hayran. The levels of HFA, already reduced by 75 percent compared to the last quarter of 2021
as per a general assumption, would be further constrained due to restrained access. The impact on livelihoods of host communities
would be devastating, as shown in areas currently affected. It is assumed that many IDPs would move further southwards (e.g. to
As’Zurah district of Al Hudaydah governorate). However, a considerable segment of host communities and IDPs would remain in Abs,
and be exposed to long months of hardship which would strain their resilience, coping capacity, and ultimately food consumption.
GAM prevalence (WHZ from SMART) was 25.2 percent in January in Abs, with the upper limit of confidence interval close to 30
percent prevalence. Crude death rate is 0.40 (IPC AMN Phase 1) but with the upper limit of the CI at 0.62 (IPC AMN Phase 3). In
the worst case scenario of conflict spreading, the health system might collapse, nutrition, wash and health programmes will face
access issues and the mortality is likely to reach famine thresholds. Notwithstanding the complexity of causal factors associated with
GAM and mortality and considering the escalation of conflict and subsequent impossibility to supply stranded people, it is believed
that population in the district of Abs, and Hayran would face Risk of Famine under the worst-case scenario. While in Abs such a
statement is made with no caveats, it is important to notice that the RoF conclusion for the district of Hayran is subject to a number of
assumptions contingent on the situation in the three districts being similar to Abs in terms of food insecurity, nutrition and mortality.
For Hayran, assumptions of severity in a worst-case scenario are consequently based on the expected evolution of vulnerability in
Abs, while some differences specific to the three districts may arise. The RoF is valid only in areas with a population of at least 10,000
people per district. Quantifying the level of displacement that a further escalation of conflict could trigger is difficult, even more so
in areas where the population basis is extremely low to start with. Considering, however, that: i.e the team indicated the presence of
people in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) under the most likely scenario in Hayran; ii. the conclusion of the AMN analysis for the projection
period which classified in the IPC Phase 5 (Extremely Critical) of the AMN analysis; and iii. the likely deterioration due to the effect of
drivers under a worst-case scenario, the team concluded that a Risk of Famine exists for Hayran in the projection period.

A RoF does not subsist in the other six districts of Hajjah, namely Al Maghrabah, Bakil Al Mir, Mustabam, Midi, Harad and Aslem. The
main differences compared to the districts above relate to the prospects of conflict, with no conflict expected in the most likely and
worst-case scenario assumptions. As the only exception, part of Mustaba district is expected to face direct conflict. Overall, an influx
of IDPs (higher than in the most likely scenario) is expected in Bakil Al Mir, Aslem and Mustaba. In case the HFA cuts are confirmed,
host communities and IDPs would still find alternative routes to the main distribution points outside the districts and far from the
frontline. Mortality and nutrition rates are also less severe than in the four districts above, with less likely prospects to overcome
famine thresholds. The lack of data from the districts of Haradh and Midi, combined with the limited information on the population
actually present in the area at the moment of analysis makes it complex to depict likely and worst-case scenarios for the projection.
For Midi and Harad more information are needed to ascertain the risk of famine, especially in light of the limited population expected,
and considering that the two districts were not classified in the main AFI/AMN IPC analysis due to scarcity of information.

2. Al Hudaydah
None of the five districts analysed were found to be at RoF in the projection period. Al Hudaydah has been a theatre of conflict for the
past 3 years. The main conflict spread from Hudaydah city to Ad Dhuraymi, where fighting lasted for over two years, before spreading
southwards to districts bordering with Taizz and Ibb governorates, namely At Tuhayta, Al Khawk, Hays, Jabal Ras. The current frontline
spreads across these districts. The realistic, worst-case scenario depicts a return of conflict northwards reaching the whole districts of
At Tuhayta, Ad Dhuraymi, and Hudeydah city (Al Hali and Al Hawak districts). These four districts were assessed against RoF together
with As’Zurah district in the north-eastern lowland part of Hudeydah, which is hosting waves of IDPs from the neighboring district
of Abs.
The population of Al Hali and Al Hawak – the two vulnerable, urban districts of Hudaydah city - depend mainly on non-agricultural
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 40

casual labour such as daily labour within the seaport. The low dynamism of the port due to insecurity and restrictions imposed on
commercial trade limit access to income, and will remain restrained in the most likely scenario. The worst-case scenario, though,
considers full closure of the seaport due to conflict. Reliance on HFA is extremely low at presence and will be negligible both in most
likely and worst-case scenario, especially if the city is besieged by conflict. Given the distance from the current frontline, it is believed
that most urban dwellers would have sufficient time to leave before conflict spread in the city. However, past experiences show that if
the conflict erupts in Hudaydah it is going to be difficult for the majority of people to leave. In early 2022, nutrition data show serious
yet comparatively lower levels of GAM prevalence (20.0 percent) compared to other areas in the governorate. Mortality is also the
lowest of all areas covered by the SMART 2022 (CDR 0.09, U5DR 0.29), except for the districts in Al Jawf, Al Baydah, Ibb, and Sana’a
which recorded lower levels. In the conflict scenario, the population in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) are
likely to increase from the expected 5 percent in the projection period. Under the worst- case scenario depicted, Al Hali and Al Hawak
will not face a Risk of Famine in the projected period. In this scenario, conflict has limited duration and/or breaks out during the
projection period, the expected deterioration of the situation will not warrant a RoF conclusion. Especially, mortality rates would not
spike upwards to Famine levels in such a short period. Under different assumptions this outcome may change. If conflict breaks out
earlier and/or lasts for more than 6 months, with a siege of Al Hali and/or Al Hawak, there is a reasonable chance that food security,
nutrition and mortality outcomes reach famine levels, after the end of the projection period (December 2022).

The rural districts in southern Al Hudaydah governorate (At Tuhayta, Ad Durahimy), are not at Risk of Famine in the projected
period. Even in the worst-case scenario – whereby conflict would resume and expand in the totality of districts – populations would
be free to move out northwards and eastwards. Food security would likely deteriorate further during the military advancements.
However, no significant differences in food availability arise between the most likely scenario and the worst-case scenario. Fishermen
cannot leave ashore due to insecurity, and large farmlands are covered in landmines. HFA assistance would further deteriorate due to
limited access. However, freedom of movement outside these districts would likely counterbalance these effects. Access to markets
and income would deteriorate. Most likely, the remaining population in these districts in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) would reach
20 percent . However, the comparatively low GAM prevalence (17 percent) and CDR (0.12) advise against stating that these two
districts are at risk of famine.

Finally, As’ Zurah district in northern lowland (north east of Hudaydah city), which borders with Abs (Hajjah governorate), is not at risk
of famine in the projection period. As Zurah hosts over 11,000 IDPs coming from conflict affected district of Abs. Data collected by
the SMART confirms extremely high prevalence of malnutrition (26.2 percent) but relatively low CDR (0.23). In the most likely scenario,
As Zurah will remain peaceful, but will continue receiving new waves of IDPs. No significant HFA levels are expected to reach As-
Zurah. In the worst-case scenario, conflict will expand southwards from Abs into As’Zurah, If conflict spreads, access to health services
becomes very problematic. Some malnutrition intervention (plumpynut) is available by Islamic Relief but there are no care facilities.
GAM rate is likely to go above 30 percent in the conflict scenario. Mortality rates are likely to increase, but not to reach famine levels
even in case of conflict. As’Zurah is a productive lowland which offers some opportunities even in enclaved parts should conflict
erupt. Also, IDPs and host communities would be free to leave the district.

3. Amran
The three districts of Amran governorate considered eligible for RoF analysis are Harf Sufyan, Aswdah, and Asswad. These districts
were selected due to presence of population in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) in the projection period, and relative proximity to districts
facing active conflict, mainly in Hajjah. While influx of IDPs is somewhat problematic, food insecurity seems to have a more structural
nature not necessarily related to the immediate acute drivers.

The most likely scenario and the worst-case scenario do not differ significantly, as no conflict is expected in a worst-case scenario, nor
impediments to humanitarian accessibility. Also, the health system is not expected to deteriorate or be affected by any calamities.
GAM prevalence is likely to deteriorate from the 9.5 percent WHZ (SMART). Similarly, mortality rates might deteriorate from 0.16 CDR.
However, no significant divergence from the expected deterioration of GAM and mortality in the most likely scenario is expected.
With the overstretched food security situation in the district and the high vulnerability of the population due to chronic causes and
exhausion of their coping strategies and increasing burden of the IDPs, the food security situation is likely to deteriorate but not to
the extent to reach 20 percent as the humanitarian access is not completely disrupted.

In conclusion, the district of Harf Sufyan, Aswdah, and Asswad are estimated not to face a Risk of Famine in the projection period
even in a worst-case scenario with realistic chances of happening.
YEMEN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 41

4. Marib
The only district in Marib eligible for RoF analysis is Majzar. Majzar has high levels of food insecurity with some populations in IPC
Phase 5 (Catastrophe) in the projection period. At present, and according to the most likely scenario, Majzar is not a theatre of conflict.
In the worst case scenario outlined, though, conflict is likely to expand to part of the district. Humanitarian access will be only partially
constrained, and overall it is expected that the planned HFA (16 percent of beneficiaries) will continue being deployed to cover the
stringent needs of affected population and mainly new IDPs.

Agricultural and non-agriculture livelihood activities may be disrupted in areas affected by the conflict, pushing people to higher
adoption of coping mechanisms. People who remain in conflict affected areas will totally rely on their stocks from the August harvest,
and livestock, as well as on community safety nets. However, most people will move due to insecurity and lack of coping towards
west in camps. This freedom of movement, associated with low GAM prevalence (7.9 percent WHZ, SMART) and mortality (0.27 CDR
and 0.21 U5DR) suggests that the district of Majzar would not warrant a Risk of Famine even in case of the depicted worst case
scenario materialized.

5. Al Jawf
After discussions between the GSU and Al Jawf analysis team, it was agreed that the two districts shortlisted from this governorate
- Al Zabir and Al Khalaq – do not have the sufficient requisites of severity, nor volatility of main food security drivers to sustain a RoF
analysis. They do not expect to face conflict in the projection period, nor will conflict likely expand in the worst-case scenario. No
major additional IDP influx is expected to take place. No major divergence from most likely and realistic worst case scenarios are
observed. Therefore, the team agreed not to proceed with a RoF analysis.
The worksheets have been filled for due diligence but do not imply that a RoF was conducted in these districts.

6. Al Dhalae and Aden governorates


Two districts were initially flagged by the IPC team of facilitators who conducted the analysis in Aden for the IRG controlled areas:
Al Azariq - Al Dhalae Governorate and Dar Saad – Aden Governorate. The analysis team strongly felt none of the two warranted Risk
of Famine and would be eligible for such analysis. The team of facilitators in Sana’a scrutinized carefully the worksheets for the two
districts in concertation with IPC GSU RoF experts, and confirmed that the two districts were not eligible for the analysis.

Al Azariq shows higher levels of severity than Dar Saad, with 25 percent people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) for the current (no people
in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe), and 35 percent in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) in the projection plus 5 percent in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe).
However, the assumptions for the most likely scenario in the June-December 2022 projection show a gloomy picture characterised
by escalating conflict, displacement, a 75 percent cut in HFA, and market constraints. An alternative, deteriorating scenario could not
show major further deterioration.

Dar Saad was also cleared as not eligible for the RoF analysis, as the food insecurity levels are not as high as required to see a drastic
deterioration into the highest phase even in a worst-case scenario. Similarly to Al Azariq, the most likely scenario already factors in
high inflation, influx of IDPs. The expansion of conflict from the west coast was not considered likely.

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