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Vision 2020 of Malaysia Economy
Vision 2020 of Malaysia Economy
AMIR MA’RUF
Faculty of Economics, Cordova University
Pondok Pesantren 112 Taliwang Sumbawa Barat NTB
amirmaruf@undova.ac.id
ABSTRACT
An ambitious vision was conveyed by the Prime Minister of Malaysia in 1991 under the name Vision
2020 when Malaysia was still a developing country based on its nominal value of GNI per capita and
HDI level. This paper wants to track Malaysia's achievements in achieving its vision using the
Susamto Four Fields and utilizing secondary data from international institutions that are concerned
with the development achievements of countries in the world. The results of the study show that by
2020 Malaysia has achieved its vision even though there are several indicators that are still not
satisfactory. However, seeing the achievements it has, Malaysia has the potential to go further to
become a more developed country.
Keywords: Vision 2020, Malaysia, developed country, Susamto’s Four Fields, economic development.
INTRODUCTION
Malaysia's Vision 2020, which was proclaimed in 1991 by Malaysian Prime Minister
Mahathir Mohamad, attracted the attention of many observers, at home and abroad of
Malaysia, during the early days of the vision declaration, throughout the decades of its
achievements, moreover during the times when the dateline for achieving the vision
approaches its finish. Among them are Sarji (1993); Sulaiman (1993); Sundaram et al. (1995);
Mustapha & Abdullah (2004); Islam (2010a, 2010b); Baharuddin (2012); Sanusi & Ghazali
(2014); Haron et al. (2015); Mohamed & Xavier (2015); Hann (2016); Pennington (2017); and
Fleming & Søborg (2019).
Vision is a lofty goal to be achieved in the future. A future ideal can be said to be a
vision - and not a dream or delusion - if it is a goal that can be concretely understood;
arranged in short, clear and focused expressions; based on existing competencies and
potentials; has a rational measure of achievement, its path of achievement can be traced,
can inspire so that it becomes a common goal that can be achieved jointly by all parties
concerned; and have a clear target time (Allison & Kaye, 2005; Kuncoro, 2006; Wibisono,
2006).
Wibisono (2006) recommends that the formulated vision must have Big, Hairy,
Audacious Goal (BHAG) criteria, so that a vision must contain a goal that has the impression
of being set ambitiously, designed to be achieved in the long term, and challenging. BHAG is
the idea of Collins & Porras (2001) which states that a BHAG vision must be firm and have
the driving force to take action; departing from a critical condition to achieve a big goal that
gives confidence to all parties to move; is an ambitious and challenging goal; should be
updated when there is a "we did it" syndrome; and consistent with the ideology and identity
of the organization.
The Vision 2020 for Malaysia is considered as an ambitious vision by some observers
such as Sundaram et Al. (1993) and Pennington (2017). This assessment arose because the
main goal set was to become a developed country within 30 years when in 1991 Malaysia
was still a emerging country. GNI per capita based on PPP is US $ 6,530 (World Bank,
2020b), Human Development Index (HDI) is 64.40 (UNDP, 2020). When compared with
several countries using the World Bank standards which set GNI per capita (PPP) for
developing countries in the range of US $ 1,006 and US $ 12,235 (Audia Junita, 2020), and
UNDP standards that set HDI for developing countries at between 55 and 70 (UNDP, 2018),
the position of Malaysia can be seen in Figure 1.
Figure 1. Position of Malaysia according to GNI per Capita and HDI in 1990.
3 4
1 H
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2. Actuality Field
This main goal can only be achieved if the nation and state of Malaysia are able to
overcome the following nine challenges (Islam, 2010b; Mohamad, 1991; Sanusi & Ghazali,
2014):
1. Establishing a united Malaysian nation with a sense of common and shared destiny. It
must be a nation at a peace with itself, territorially and ethnically integrated.
2. Creating a society that is psychologically liberated, secure, and developed with faith and
confidence, and robust enough to face all forms of adversity.
3. Building a mature democratic society practising a mature and community-oriented
consensual democracy.
4. Establishing a community that has high moral, ethical, and religious standards.
5. Establishing a mature, liberal and tolerant society where all people regardless of colors
and creeds are free to practice and show their customs, culture and religious beliefs, yet
they still feel as one nation.
6. Establishing a scientific and progressive society, a society that is innovative and has a
future view. Not only as a consumer of technology but also as a contributor to future
scientific and technological civilizations.
7. Establishing a fully caring society and a caring culture, a social system in which people
do not prioritize themselves and the people's welfare will not revolve around the state
or individuals but around a strong and resilient family system.
8. Ensuring a just society economically, namely a society in which there is a fair and
equitable distribution of the nation's wealth.
9. Establishing a prosperous society, with an economy that is completely competitive,
dynamic, strong and resilient.
The nine challenges in achieving the Vision 2020 are derivatives of what Mahathir
Mohamad stated that Malaysia as fully doveloped country in 2020, not only in the economic
aspects, but also in social, cultural, political, educational, technological, security, and so on. .
Mahathir Mohamad stated (Mohamad, 1991):
Malaysia should not be developed only in the economic sense. It must be a
nation that is fully developed along all the dimensions: economically, politically,
socially, spiritually, psychologically and culturally. We must be fully developed in
terms of national unity and social-cohesion, in terms of our economy, in terms of
social justice, political stability, system of government, quality of life, social and
spiritual values, national pride and confidence.
From the excerpt of the speech delivered by Mahathir Mohamad above, it is implied
that this Vision 2020 is a continuation of the Malaysia New Economic Plan (NEP) that has
been and is being implemented. Beside the brilliant achievements through the NEP, there
have also been many bad records that have been in the national and international attention
(Hann, 2016; Sundaram et al., 1995).
Sundaram et al., (1995) explain that the main issue highlighted in the NEP which
began in 1970 was racial issues, when the government gave privileges to Bumiputera
economic development and placed ‘large’ economic limitation on the Chinese and Indian
races.
In the early days of Malaysia's independence, the economic condition of the
Bumiputera was very bad. Economic inequality between Bumiputeras on the one hand and
the Chinese and Indians on the other was severe. Elhadary & Samat, (2016) noted that in
1970 the poverty of Bumiputera reached 64.8%, while the poverty of Indians was 39.2% and
the Chinese 26%. Each percentage of the total population of Malaysia at that time consisted
of Bumiputeras of 5,782,337 (55.4%), Chinese of 3,564,502 (34.14%), and India of 936,341
(8.97%) (Nor & Yaakob, 2014). Thanks to NEP, the composition shifted. Bumiputera poverty
declined in 1990 to 17.5% (down 47.3%), India to 4.5% (down 34.7%), and China to 3.2%
(down 22.8%) as the population Bumiputeras as many as 10,056,724 people (61.55%),
Chinese as many as 4,773,514 people (29.22%), and Indians as many as 1,336,559 people
(8.18%). Although the Bumiputera poverty rate is still higher than the Chinese and Indian
poverty levels, the gap is narrowing.
In relation to the reduction in the poverty rate, data on economic inequality
between ethnic groups in 1970 were also recorded, which shifted to a better composition as
a result of the NEP. Mohamed & Xavier (2015) noted that in 1970 the level of shareholding
in companies by Bumiputera was only around 2.3%, while by Chinese and Indians it reached
34.3%. In 1990, ownership by Bumiputera reached 19.3% (up 17%) and ownership by
Chinese and Indians also increased to 46.8% (up 12.5%). The ratio of gross household
income between Bumiputera and India in 1970 was 1: 1.77 and it was 1: 2.29 with China. In
1990 the ratio changed, Bumiputera to India became 1: 1.29 and with China it became 1:
1.74.
There is an implicit belief in the NEP that economic stability and development in a
country of various ethnicities, tribes, and creeds can only be achieved if there is economic
justice and equality between all groups (Hann, 2016). This may be confirmed by the
evidence that the general poverty rate in Malaysia decreased from 49.3% (of 10.439 million
people) in 1970 to 17.1% (of 18.102 million people) in 1990. GDP per capita in 1970
amounting to US $ 900 increased to US $ 6,818 in 1990 (Mohamed & Xavier, 2015).
Behind all these glorious achievements, it turns out that there is a fire in the husks of
the NEP, the fire is racial jealousy related to economic policies. Although the fire has been
held for 20 years so as not to grow, it is feared that the political dynamics, both at home and
abroad, will blow and inflame the fire of racial jealousy. Moreover, in the three years before
1990 there had been a political crisis which could become sparks which, if not immediately
extinguished, would be a threat to Malaysia's development journey. That is why the Vision
2020 was raised. (Sundaram et al., 1995)
According to Sundaram et al. (1995) The public's response to the 2020 Vision is
different from the response to other government policies which are always followed by
rejection, criticism, and even challenges for open debate. For Vision 2020 that is not the
case. This is because the Vision 2020 appears at the right time, when society is fed up with
racial policies, when economic indicators in general are showing encouraging numbers, and
when pride as a Malaysian nation has taken shape.
Even though it was said that the Vision 2020 is not limited to the economic aspects
alone, the achievements in the economic dimension are still the main benchmarks for the
success of achievement (Pennington, 2017), while the achievements in other dimensions are
only supporting benchmarks. This can be easily recognized because when Mahathir
Mohamad discussed challenges in the economic dimension, it was always accompanied by
several targets that must be achieved, whereas when discussed challenges in the non-
economic dimension, it was not accompanied by explicit targets.
Some of the targets on the economic dimension that Mahathir Mohamad explicitly
mentioned are as follows (Mohamad, 1991):
1. Doubling real GDP every ten years. If the real GDP in 1990 was US $ 115 billion, the
indicative achievement is the real GDP in 2020 of US $ 920 billion.
2. Maintain economic growth of 7% or an average of 7% between 1990 and 2020.
3. Maintain the population growth rate until 2020 at 2.5% level. This is intended so that the
wealth of Malaysians in 2020 will increase four times compared to 1990 as measured by
GNI per capita.
4. Maintain a low inflation rate for 30 years.
5. Realizing a just economy in the form of economic equality for all Malaysians regardless of
race and religion.
6. Achieve equitable economic growth in all sectors: agriculture, manufacturing, services,
and others.
FULLY DEVELOPED COUNTRY, A DEFINITION
The categorization of countries in the world has long been carried out by
international institutions, both within the scope of the United Nations (UN) and
independent institutions. The categorization that became popular and was widely used as a
reference was the categorization set by the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF),
and United Nation Development Programme (UNDP).
The basis for the categorization of the three institutions is different and always
changes due to the different missions and tasks of each institution. Nielsen (2011)
summarizes the differences in categorization between the three institutions in Table 1:
Table 1. Country Categorization System in Several International Institutions
CATEGORY IMF UNDP World Bank
The term used for Advance countries Developed countries High Income countries
developed country
Threshold Not explicit 75th percentile on the GNI per capita US $
HDI distribution 6,000 based on 1987
prices
Threshold Type Almost absolut Relative Absolut
The term used for Emerging and Developing countries Low – and middle –
developing country developing countries income countries
Subcategory for (1) Low-income (1) Low human (1) Low-income
developing country developing development countries,
countries, countries, (2) Middle-income
(2) Emerging and (2) Medium human countries.
other developing development
countries countries,
(3) High human
development
countries
Source: Nielsen (2011)
The IMF uses the term "advance country" for developed countries, a term that has
only been used since 1997 replacing the term "industrial country" which it has used since
the first time the IMF conducted categorization (Nielsen, 2011). This implies that the IMF
has focused on the economic sector which is the mainstay of a country in its development.
For this reason, there is no explicit finding of the threshold set by the IMF as the boundary
between developed and developing countries. Developed countries are countries with a
larger share of the industrial sector than those directly based on natural resources, such as
large-scale agriculture and mining. However, if these natural resources are processed in the
industrial sector so that the products are no longer raw or undercooked products, then the
country can be categorized as a developed country.
The threshold is neither explicit, nor absolute, because there is no set figure, but also
not relative because there are provisions that outline a larger share of the industrial sector
than other sectors.
The World Bank has focused its categorization on income. The threshold used as the
benchmark is gross national income per capita (GNI per capita). The implication is that the
share of high-income countries has increased because in general the economic performance
of countries in the world has also increased. Based on income, the World Bank classifies
countries in the world into four groups (Junita, 2020):
1. High income countries, if the GNI per capita is at least US $ 12,235.
2. Upper–middle income countries, if the GNI per capita is between US $ 3,956 - US $
12,235.
3. Lower – middle income countries, if the GNI per capta is between US $ 1,006 - US $
3,956.
4. Low income countries, if the GNI per capita is less than US $ 1,006.
A high income country is a term used by the World Bank to describe developed
countries.
UNDP includes elements of welfare in assessing the level of development of a
country which is known as the Human Development Index (HDI). There are three
dimensions that make up HDI: (1) life expectancy at birth in the health dimension, (2) years
of schooling in the education dimension, and (3) purchasing power in the economic
dimension. From the HDI ranking of all countries in the world, UNDP classifies the countries
as follows (UNDP, 2018):
1. Very high human development countries, if the HDI is at least 0.800.
2. High human development countries, if the HDI is between 0.700 - 0.799.
3. Medium human development countries, if the HDI is between 0.550 - 0.699.
4. Low human development countries, if the HDI is less than 0.550.
Developed countries according to UNDP are countries with very high HDI.
In addition to the criteria for developed countries as set out above, the three
international institutions also set several other criteria such as low poverty rates, low
unemployment rates, low population growth rates, high economic growth rates, low
inflation rates, low economic inequality rates, high levels of productivity, and low levels of
dependence. However, there is no clear threshold.
The term Fully Developed Country, which is the main objective of Malaysia's Vision
2020, has never been used by the three international agencies that have been used as
references or by other institutions. The term was purely born from the idea of Mahathir
Mohamad as the Prime Minister of Malaysia when the Vision 2020 was launched and was
later accepted as the national vision of the Malaysian state. When the term was disclosed,
the different terms used by international institutions and changes in their indicators had
already occurred and were widely known. On that basis, it is presumed that the use of the
term “fully developed country” is an attempt to declare a truly developed country that
meets all the criteria set by all international institutions for the top category in the
categorization of countries in the world.
If this is the case, then the indicators of achievement that Malaysia must achieve as a
fully developed country in 2020 are a combination of the targets mentioned by Mahathir
Mohamad in his speech on Vision 2020, the threshold for upper-class countries in country
categorization by the World Bank, UNDP, and the IMF, as well as other criteria from the
economic dimension in developed countries as follows:
1. GDP of US $ 920 billion (1990 base price).
2. The minimum per capita GNI is US $ 12,235.
3. The maximum population is 34,271,772 people based on the population in 1990 as
many as 16,338,817 people (Nor & Yaakob, 2014).
4. Minimum IPM of 0.800
5. Minimum average economic growth is 7%.
6. Maximum inflation rate of 3.01% benchmark: Iceland in 2019 1.
7. The maximum Gini ratio is 0.31, benchmark: Cyprus 2017.
8. The share of the industrial sector (manufacturing and services) is greater than the share
of the primary economic sector. The share of the industrial sector is at least 51%.
9. The maximum total poverty rate is 12.4%, benchmark: United States in 2017.
10. The maximum unemployment rate is 17.24%, benchmark: Greece in 2019.
11. Maximum dependency rate of 5.60, benchmark: Singapore 2020.
Several indicators that do not have clear thresholds from the World Bank, UNDP, and
IMF, use the achievements of developed countries as the maximum threshold.
The eleven targets mentioned above are the ideal achievements of Vision 2020 and
are included in Field I: The Ideality Fiels of 4 Susamto Fields.
In field III: Comparison Field of 4 Susamto Fields, a comparison will be made between
Malaysia's achievements and the targets that must be achieved in achieving the Vision 2020
in the economic field.
Mahathir Mohamad explicitly stated that Malaysia's real GDP in 1990 was US $ 115
billion. The target is that every 10 years the real GDP will double, meaning that in 2000 it
was US $ 230 billion, 2010 was US $ 460, and in 2020 it was US $ 920 billion, meaning that
GDP in 2020 is 8 times the GDP in 1990. That is based on 1990 prices. Meanwhile, data on
the World Bank for GDP (PPP) based on prevailing prices recorded Malaysia's GDP in 1990 of
US $ 122,934,587,704. If it is multiplied by 8 as Mahathir Mohamad wanted, then Malaysia's
GDP in 2020 should be US $ 983,476,701,633. In fact, in 2019 Malaysia's GDP was US $
943,335,612,542 and in 2020 it contracted by 3.1% to US $ 914,092,208,553.
Figure 3. Chart of Malaysian GDP 1990 - 2020.