REVA INDEPENDENT PU COLLEGE

II PUC
STATISTICS

Chapter I
Vital Statistics
5 marks:
1. Calculate GFR and ASFR for the following data.
Age [in years] Male Population Female Population Live births
0-14 20730 19840 0
15-19 7366 7310 212
20-24 7300 7120 657
25-29 6030 5860 592
30-39 9980 9120 326
40-49 7400 6910 81
50 & above 8400 7900 0
Solution:
Age Male Pop Female Pop Live births ASFR
0-14 20730 19840 0 -
212
15-19 7366 7310 212 𝑥100= 29
19840

20-24 7300 7120 657 657

7120
𝑥10092.27
25-29 6030 5860 592 101.02
30-39 9980 9120 326 35.74
40-49 7400 6910 81 11.72
50 & above 8400 7900 0 -
TOTAL 67206 64060 1868
Number of live births during a year
GFR = Number of women of child bearing age
𝑥1000

1868
= 36320 𝑋1000
=51.43
Number of live births to females particular age group
ASFR= Total number of females of that age group
𝑥1000

2. From the following data calculate Total Fertility rate.

Age-group Female No. of live
[in years] Population births
15-19 50000 1000
20-24 60000 7000
2 5-29 45000 8000
30-34 40000 5000
35-39 30000 900
40-44 25000 100
45-49 20000 50
Solution:
Age-group Female No. of live ASFR
[in years] Population births
15-19 50000 1000 1000
𝑥100 =20.00
50000
20-24 60000 7000 7000
60000
𝑥100 =116.66
25-29 45000 8000 177.77
30-34 40000 5000 125.00
35-39 30000 900 30.00
40-44 25000 100 4.00
45-49 20000 50 2.50
475.93
𝑇𝐹𝑅 = 5 𝑋 ∑ Quinquennial ASFR
= 5 X 475.93
TFR = 2379.65
10 Marks
1. Calculate net reproduction rate from the data given below.
Age-group Female Female Survival
(in years) population births rates
15-19 3000 50 0.9
20-24 2500 400 0.9
25-29 2200 300 0.8
30-34 2000 100 0.8
35-39 1800 60 0.8
40-44 1500 30 0.8
45-49 1200 10 0.7
Solution:
Age-group Female Female
[in years] Population births WSFR S [WSFR]S

15-19 3000 50 16.66 0.9 14.99

20-24 2500 400 160.00 0.9 144.00
25-29 2200 300 136.66 0.8 109.08
30-34 2000 100 50.00 0.8 40.00
35-39 1800 60 33.33 0.8 26.66
40-44 1500 30 20.00 0.8 16.00
45-49 1200 10 8.33 0.7 5.83
424.98 I[WSFR]x S=356.56
GRR = i x ∑ 𝑊𝑆𝐹𝑅
= 5 X 424.98
= 2124.9
2124.9
GRR per woman = = 2.12 𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑠
1000
NRR = i x ∑(𝑊𝑆𝐹𝑅 𝑋 𝑆)
=5 x 356.56
= 1782.8 female births per 1000 woman of childbearing age.
1782.8
NRR per woman = 1000 = 1.78 female births
Since NRR per woman is more than 1, Population is increasing.
2. For the following data compute standardized death rates in two towns A and B. Which town
is healthier?
Age group TOWN A TOWNB Standard
(in years) Population
Population Deaths Population Deaths
0-10 4000 36 3000 30 2000
10-25 12000 48 20000 100 3000
25-60 6000 60 4000 48 6000
60 and above 8000 152 3000 60 4000
Solution:
For TOWN [A]:
Number of deaths ina particular age group
ASFR= Average population in that age group 𝑥1000

Age-group Population Deaths ASDR[A] Standard PA

(in years) Pop [P]
36
0-10 4000 36 𝑥100 =9 2000 18000
4000
10-25 12000 48 48 3000 12000
12000
𝑥10 =4
25-60 6000 60 10 6000 60000
60 & above 8000 152 19 4000 76000
15,000 1,66,000
∑ 𝑃𝐴 166000
𝑆𝑇𝐷𝑅 (𝐴 ) = = = 11.06
∑𝑃 15000

For TOWN [B]:

Age-group Population Deaths ASDR[B] Standard P
(in years) Pop [P] B

0-10 3000 30 30 2000 20000

3000
𝑥100 =10
100
10-25 20000 100 𝑥100 =5 3000 15000
20000
25-60 4000 48 12 6000 72000
60 & above 3000 60 20 4000 80000
15,000 1,87,000

∑ 𝑃𝐵 187000
𝑆𝑇𝐷𝑅 (𝐵 ) = = = 12.46
∑𝑃 15000
STDR(A) < STDR(B), town-A is more healthier.

3. Compute crude death rates and standardized death rates for the two towns A and B by
taking town A as the standard population. Hence find which town is healthier.
Age-group TOWN A TOWNB
(in years) Population Deaths Population Deaths
Below 5 35000 360 80000 1000
5-30 40000 400 100000 1040
Above 30 20000 280 16000 240
Solution:
TOWN [A]

Age group (in years] Pop Deaths ASDR Standard PA

[A] Pop [P]
Below 5 35000 360 10.28 35000 359800
5-30 40000 400 10 40000 400000
Above 30 20000 280 14 20000 280000
Total 95000 1040 95000 1039800
𝐷
𝐶𝐷𝑅 (𝐴) = 𝑃 𝑋1000
1040
= 95000 𝑋1000 = 10.95
∑ 𝑃𝐴 103980
STDR [A] = ∑𝑃
= = 10.94
95000

TOWN [B]
Age-group Pop Deaths ASDR Standard Pop PB
(in years) [B] [P]
Below 5 80000 8000 10 35000 350000
5-30 100000 1040 10.4 40000 416000
Above 30 16000 240 15 20000 300000
TOTAL 196000 2280 95000 106600
𝐷 2280
𝐶𝐷𝑅 (𝐵) = 𝑃 𝑋1000 = 196000
𝑋1000 = 11.63
∑ 𝑃𝐵 106600
𝑆𝑇𝐷𝑅 (𝐵 ) = ∑𝑃
= = 11.22
95000
STDR(A) < STDR(B),
Town-A is more healthier.

Chapter 2
INDEX NUMBERS
5 Marks
1. The following are the prices (in Rs.) of commodities in 2005 and 2010. Calculate a
price index based on price relative using arithmetic mean as well as geometric mean
Year A B C D E F
Price 2005 45 60 20 50 85 120
(in Rs.) 2010 55 70 30 75 90 130
Solution:
Commodity 𝑝0 𝑝1 log P
𝑝1
P= 𝑥100
𝑝0

A 45 55 122.22 2.0871
B 60 70 116.67 2.0667
C 20 30 150 2.1761
D 50 75 150 2.1761
E 85 90 105.88 2.0246
F 120 130 108.33 2.0347
 753.1 12.5653
Index number based on arithmetic mean is
∑𝑃 753.1
𝑃01 = = = 125.517
𝑛 6
Index number based on geometric mean is
∑ 𝑙𝑜𝑔 𝑃 12.5653
𝑃01 = 𝐴𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑜𝑔 ( 𝑛 ) = 𝐴𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑜𝑔 6
= 𝐴𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑜𝑔2.0942 = 124.3
2. Calculate weighted G.M. price index number from the following data.
Items A B C D E
Expenses (in %) 30 15 20 10 25
Price Base year 100 20 70 20 40
Current year 90 20 60 15 55
Solution:
𝑝
Items w 𝑝0 𝑝1 P = 𝑝1 𝑥100 log P WlogP
0

A 30 100 90 90 1.954 58.626

B 15 20 20 100 2 30
C 20 70 60 85.7 1.933 38.66
D 10 20 15 75 1.875 18.751
E 25 40 55 137.5 2.138 53.457
l00 199.494

Weighted geometric mean

∑ 𝑊 log 𝑃 199.494
𝑃01 = 𝐴𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑜𝑔 ( ∑ ) = 𝐴𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑜𝑔 ( ) = 𝐴𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑜𝑔 (1.9949) = 98.83
𝑊 100

3. Compute cost of living index number:

Item Weight Price in Rs
Base Year Current Year
Food 10 200 250
Rent 5 80 120
Clothing 3 40 50
Fuel 4 50 70
Misc 5 80 100
Solution:
Item 𝑊 𝑝0 𝑝1 𝑝
P = 𝑝1 𝑥100 WP
0
Food 10 200 250 125 1250
Rent 5 80 120 150 750
Clothing 3 40 50 125 375
Fuel 4 50 70 140 560
Misc 5 80 100 125 625
Total 3560
∑ 𝑊𝑃 3560
𝐶𝐿𝐼 = ∑𝑊
= = 131.85
27

10 Marks
1. Compute Laspeyre's, Paasche's, Marshall-Edgeworth's, Dorbish-bowley's and
 Fisher's Index numbers.
Commodity 1995 2000
Price (Rs.) Quantity Price (Rs.) Quantity
A 6 50 10 56
B 2 100 2 120
C 4 60 6 60
D 10 30 12 24
E 8 40 12 36
Solution:
Commodit 𝑝0 𝑞0 𝑝1 𝑞1 𝑝0 𝑞0 𝑝1 𝑞0 𝑝0 𝑞1 𝑝1 𝑞1
y
A 6 50 10 56 300 500 336 560
B 2 100 2 120 200 200 240 240
C 4 60 6 60 240 360 240 360
D 10 30 12 24 300 360 240 288
E 8 40 12 36 320 480 288 432
Total 1360 1900 1344 1880
𝐿 𝑝 𝑞 1900
𝑃01 = 𝑝1 𝑞0 𝑥100 = 1360 𝑥100 = 139.71
0 0

𝑃 𝑝 𝑞 1880
𝑃01 = 𝑝1 𝑞1 𝑥100 = 1344 𝑥100 = 139.88
0 1
𝑀𝐸 𝑝1 𝑞0+ 𝑝1 𝑞1 1900+1880
𝑃01 =𝑝 𝑥100 = 1360+1344 𝑥100 = 139.79
0 𝑞0
+𝑝0 𝑞1
𝐷𝐵 1 𝐿 𝑃 ) 1
𝑃01 = (𝑃01 + 𝑃01 = 2 (139.71 + 139.88) = 139.79
2
𝐹 𝐿 𝑃
𝑃01 = √𝑃01 𝑥 𝑃01 = √139.71 𝑥 139.88 = 139.79
2. Compute Laspeyre's, Paasche's, Marshall-Edgeworth's, Dorbish-Bowley's and Fisher's
Quantity Index Numbers from the following data.
2006 2010
Item Price (Rs.) Quantity Price (Rs.) Quantity
A 8 50 10 60
B 4 80 5 100
C 6 70 6 60
D 5 30 7 50
Solution:
commodity 𝑝0 𝑞0 𝑝1 𝑞1 𝑞0 𝑝0 𝑞1 𝑝0 𝑞0 𝑝1 𝑞1 𝑝1
A 8 50 10 60 400 480 500 600
B 4 80 5 100 320 400 400 500
C 6 70 6 60 420 360 420 360
D 5 30 7 50 150 250 210 350
1290 1490 1530 1810
𝐿 𝑞 𝑝 1490
𝑄01 = 𝑞1 𝑝0 𝑥100 = 1290 𝑥100 = 115.5
0 0
𝑃 𝑞1 𝑝1 1810
𝑄01 =𝑞 𝑥100 = 1530 𝑥100 = 118.3
0 𝑝1
𝑀𝐸 𝑞1 𝑝0 +𝑞1 𝑝1 1490+1810 3300
𝑄01 = 𝑞0 𝑝0 +𝑞0 𝑝1
𝑥100 = 1290+1530 𝑥100 = 2820 𝑥100 = 117.02
𝐷𝐵 1 𝐿 𝑃 ) 1
𝑄01 = (𝑄01 + 𝑄01 = (115.5 + 119.5) = 116.9
2 2
 𝐹 𝐿 𝑃
𝑄01 = √𝑄01 𝑥𝑄01 = √115.5𝑥119.5 = √13663.65 = 116.89

3. Compute Fisher’s Pice Index and show that it satisfies TRT and FRT.
2004 2006
Item Price (Rs.) Quantity Price (Rs.) Quantity
A 8 15 9 15
B 7 12 8 13
C 10 10 10 10
D 12 14 15 16
Solution:
commodity 𝑝0 𝑞0 𝑝1 𝑞1 𝑝0 𝑞0 𝑝1 𝑞0 𝑝0 𝑞1 𝑝1 𝑞1
A 8 15 9 15 120 135 120 135
B 7 12 8 13 84 96 91 104
C 10 10 10 10 100 100 100 100
D 12 14 15 16 168 210 192 240
472 541 503 579

𝐹 𝑝 𝑞 𝑝 𝑞 541 579
𝑃01 = √𝑝 1𝑞 0𝑥𝑥𝑝1 𝑞1 𝑥100 √472 𝑥 503 𝑥100 = 114.87
0 0 0 1

TRT: 𝑃01 𝑥𝑃10 = 1

541 579 503 472
√ 𝑥 503 𝑥 √579 𝑥 541 = √1 = 1
472
Fisher’s satisfies TRT

FRT: 𝑃01 𝑥𝑄01 = 𝑉01

541 579 503 579 579 579
√
472
𝑥 503 𝑥 √472 𝑥 541 = √(472)2 = 472
Fishers satisfies FRT

Chapter 3
Time Series
5 Marks:
1. Compute 4 yearly moving averages:
Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Sales 75 60 55 60 65 70 70 75 85 70
Solution:
Year Sales 4 Yearly 2 item Trend
Moving totals moving sum values
2000 75 - - -
2001 60 - - -
2002 55 250 490 61.25
2003 60 240 490 61.25
2004 65 250 515 64.38
2005 70 265 545 68.13
2006 70 280 580 72.5
2007 75 300 600 75
2008 85 300 - -
2009 70 - - -
The given data shows upward trend
2. Compute 3 yearly moving averages:
Year 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Sales 86 63 45 43 57 57 98 100 120 150
Solution:
Year Sales 3 Yearly Trend
Moving totals values
1995 86 - -
1996 63 194 65
1997 45 166 54
1998 43 146 49
1999 57 158 53
2000 57 198 66
2001 98 255 85
2002 100 318 106
2003 120 370 122
2004 150 -
This shows oscillatory trend.

3. Production in thousand quintals of sugar. Fit a straight line trend and estimate production for 2011.
Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Sales 12 10 14 11 13 15 16
Solution:
Year Sales x 𝑥2 xy Trend values = 13 + 0.75𝑥
(y)
2002 12 -3 9 -36 13 + 0.75𝑥 = 13+0.75(-3) = 10.75
2003 10 -2 4 -20 13 + 0.75𝑥 = 13+0.75(-2) = 11.5
2004 14 -1 1 -14 12.25
2005 11 0 0 0 13
2006 13 1 1 13 13.75
2007 15 2 4 30 14.5
2008 16 3 9 48 15.25
Total 91 0 28 21
∑𝑦 91 ∑ 𝑥𝑦 21
𝑎= = = 13 𝑏= ∑ 𝑥2
= = 0.75
𝑛 7 28
𝑦 = 𝑎 + 𝑏𝑥
𝑦 = 13 + 0.75𝑥
Estimation for the year 2011 (x = 6)
𝑦 = 13 + 0.75𝑥
= 13 + 0.75 (6)
𝑦2011 = 17.5

4. Fit a straight line trend and estimate sales for 2010.

Year 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Sales 16 20 18 15 18 21
Solution:
Year Sales x 𝑥2 xy Trend values: 18 + 0.2285𝑥
(y)
1980 16 -5 25 -80 18 + 0.2285𝑥 = 18 + 0.2285(−5) = 16.86
1985 20 -3 9 -60 18 + 0.2285𝑥 = 18 + 0.2285(−3) = 17.32
1990 18 -1 1 -18 17.77
1995 15 1 1 15 18.23
2000 18 3 9 54 18.68
 2005 21 5 25 105 19.14
Total 108 0 70 16
∑𝑦 108 ∑ 𝑥𝑦 16
𝑎= 𝑛
= 6
= 18 𝑏= ∑ 𝑥2
= 70 = 0.2285
𝑦 = 𝑎 + 𝑏𝑥
𝑦 = 18 + 0.2285𝑥
Estimation for the year 2010 (x = 7)
𝑦 = 18 + 0.2285𝑥
= 18 + 0.2285𝑥(7)
𝑦2010 = 19.5995

10 Marks:
1. Fit a Parabolic trend and estimate the profit for the year 2010.
Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Profit 50 60 55 61 72 73 75
Solution:
Year Sales x 𝑥2 𝑥3 𝑥4 xy 𝑥2 y
(y)
2001 50 -3 9 -27 81 -150 450
2002 60 -2 4 -8 16 -120 240
2003 55 -1 1 - 1 -55 55
2004 61 0 0 0 0 0 0
2005 72 1 1 1 1 7 72
2006 73 2 4 8 16 146 292
2007 75 3 9 27 81 225 675
Total 446 0 28 0 196 118 1784

Chapter 4
Interpolation and Extrapolation
5 Marks:
1. Estimate the production for the year 2001 and 2005
Year 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Production 20 40 70 ? 130 ?
Solution:
Year 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Production 20 (y0) 40 (y1) 70 (y2) ? (y3) 130 (y4) ? (y5)
Known values are 4
(y-1)4 = 𝑦4 − 4𝑦3 + 6𝑦2 − 4𝑦1 + 𝑦0
= 130 - 4𝑦3 + 6(70) − 4(40) + 20
= 130- 4𝑦3 + 420 − 160 + 20
= 210- 4𝑦3
4𝑦3 = 410
410
𝑦3 = 4
𝑦3 = 102.5

Production for the year 2005 – by adding 1 to y values

𝑦5 − 4𝑦4 + 6𝑦3 − 4𝑦2 + 𝑦1
= 𝑦5 − 4(130) + 6(102.5) − 4(70) + 40
= 𝑦5 − 520 + 615 − 280 + 40
= 𝑦5 − 145
-𝑦5 = −145
𝑦5 = 145

2. Estimate the production for the year 2001 and 2005

Year 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Life 68.2 69.7 70.8 ? 75.4 77 ?
Expentancy
Solution:
Year 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Production 68.2 69.7 70.8 ? (y3) 75.4 77 ? (y6)
(y0) (y1) (y2) (y4) (y5)
Known values are 5
(y-1)5 = 𝑦5 − 5𝑦4 + 10𝑦3 − 10𝑦2 + 5𝑦1 − 𝑦0
= 77 − 5(75.4) + 10𝑦3 − 10(70.8) + 5(69.7)1 − 68.2
= 77 − 377 + 10𝑦3 − 708 + 348.5 − 68.2
= -727.7 +10𝑦3
−10𝑦3 = −727.7
727.7
𝑦3 = 10
𝑦3 = 72.77

Production for the year 2010 – by adding 1 to y values

𝑦6 − 5𝑦5 + 10𝑦4 − 10𝑦3 + 5𝑦2 − 𝑦1
= 𝑦6 − 5(77) + 10(75.4) − 10(72.77) + 5(70.8) − 69.7
= 𝑦6 − 385 + 754 − 727.7 + 354 − 69.7
= 𝑦6 − 74.4
-𝑦6 = −74.4
𝑦5 = 74.4

One marks

1. Define expectation of life.

Average no. of years a person can be expected to live under the prevailing mortality conditions.
2. What is a life table?
Life table is the tabular presentation of numerical data describing the mortality experience of a cohort.
3. Define Fertility.
Fertility refers to the births occurring to women of child bearing age.
4. Define an Index number.
Index numbers are statistical devices designed to measure the relative changes in the level of a
phenomenon with respect to time, geographical location.
5. If the general price level goes up by 80% between 2000 and 2012. What is the index number for 2012
with base 2000?
180
6. What is the value of Index number for the base year?
100
7. Which weights are used in construction of Laspeyre’s PIN?
Base year quantity
8. Name the index number which satisfies circular test.
Simple geometric mean index and Kelly’s
9. Name the index number which satisfies both TRT and FRT.
 Fisher’s Index number
10. Which index is used for the measurement of seasonal variation?
Seasonal indices.
11. What is histogram?
A graphic representation of time series data
12. What is meant by lead time?
The time gap between placing of order and arrival of goods at the inventory.
13. When a T.P balanced?
If ∑ 𝑎𝑖 = ∑ 𝑏𝑗
14. What is a two-person zero sum game?
A game with two players in which the gain of one player is the loss of the other player.

Two Marks:

1. In a locality 10,000 live births occurred. The no. of infant deaths was 500. Calculate IMR.
𝑁𝑜.𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑛𝑒𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑒𝑠 100
𝐼𝑀𝑅 = 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑠
𝑥1000 = 4000 𝑥1000 =25
2. There was a record of 4000 live births in a city. The no. of neonatal deaths was 100. Calculate NMR.
𝑁𝑜.𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑠 𝑎𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑔 𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑠 500
𝑁𝑀𝑅 = 𝑥1000 = 𝑥1000 =50
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑠 10000

3. State two characteristics of index number.

a) They are specialized type of averages.
b) It facilitates comparison
4. Why is Fisher’s index number called an “Ideal Index Number”?
a) Fisher’s index number satisfies both TRT and FRT
b) It is free from bias
c) It considers both current year and base year
5. Quantity index number of current year is 250. If the no. of units produced in the current year is 120
then find the no. of units produced in the base year.
𝑞
𝑄01 = 𝑞1 𝑥100
0
120
250 = 𝑥
𝑥100 = 48
𝐿 𝑃 𝐷𝐵
6. If 𝑃01 = 105 and 𝑃01 = 125, Find 𝑃01
𝐿 +𝑃𝑃
𝑃01 105+125
𝐷𝐵 01
𝑃01 = = = 115
2 2
7. Diagrammatically represent Business Cycle.
a) Prosperity
b) Decline
c) Depression
d) Normal
e) Recovery
8. Mention all the components of a time series
a) Secular Trend
b) Seasonal variation
c) Cyclical variation
d) Irregular variation
9. Define Interpolation and Extrapolation.
Interpolation is the technique of estimating the values of dependent variable for any intermediate
value of the independent variable.
Extrapolation is the technique of estimating the value of dependent variable for any value of the
independent variable which is outside the given range.