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African Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences


Volume 2, No. 2., December, 2020, xxx-xxx
Acceptable Margin of Error: A Nexus to Mortgage
Valuation Practice in Kaduna Metropolis, Nigeria
1
Bilkisu Adamu Aliyu ; 3Sadiya Danjuma
Department of Estate Management, Nuhu Bamalli Polytechnic, Zaria. Kaduna State
&
2
Habibu Sani
Department of Estate Management, Kaduna Polytechnic, Kaduna. Kaduna State

ABSTRACT
The paper identified acceptable margin of error in mortgage valuation among practitioners
Article History
in the study area and established a nexus of factors influencing mortgage valuation
inaccuracy such that the acceptable margin of error is used as a proxy of inaccuracy. Data Received: 17 February 2020
was collected from 67 registered estate surveyors and valuers practising in Kaduna Received in revised form: 19 April 2020
Accepted: 13 March 2020
metropolis using structured survey questionnaires, of which 51 were retrieved and
Published Online: 9 September 2020
analysed. The study used Multiple Regression Analysis (MRA), perception index Likert
scale of measurement, with the aid of statistical package of social sciences. Findings Keywords:
revealed that 16-20% percent was the perception of valuers as a maximum acceptable
Mortgage, Valuation Inaccuracy;
margin of error in values of residential properties valuation which is proxy to represent
Acceptable Margin of Error
mortgage valuation inaccuracy. The findings also indicated, familiarity with property Corresponding Author Contact:
market, client pressure, and absence of national valuation standard, problem of relevant Bilkisu Adamu Aliyu
data, regulatory framework and valuation methodology were the most contributing factors
to valuation errors/inaccuracy in the study area. Finally, the study recommends that Email: bilkiadamu001@gmail.com
DOI: 10.11113/ajees.v3.n1.104
valuers should familiarize themselves with the property market and be objective with their
assessment devoid of third party influence.

1.1 INTRODUCTION portrayed as heterogeneous offering diverse


Inaccuracy in valuations of real estate assumes a non-unified product as real property; this
general consensus among the academia, makes it hard to precisely assess the market
professional and the courts (Babawale & cost of real property without valuation.
Omirin, 2011). This is because real estate Property market is characterised with defects
valuation is a complex task and its accuracy can thereby accounting for high variation among
be influenced at any stage of the valuation from valuers and thus inaccuracy between valuation
inception to completion. Valuation assumes a and market price. Such inaccuracy is not
critical part when exchanging genuine limited to a particular type of valuation, rather
resources for transfer of ownership, financing cut across the various purposes of valuation as
and credit, tax matters, investment advising, sales, purchase, mortgage, rating, taxation and
accounting, management control/records and others (Effiong, 2015) with mortgage valuation
decision making in investment performance not immune to the problem of inaccuracy.
measurement (Babawale, 2008; Appraisal
Institute, 2001). Valuation for any reason Various factors are adduced to causing
ought to be accurate to offer reliable bases for mortgage valuation inaccuracy as clients
assessment making. Ajibola (2006) observed pressure (Nwuba, Egwuata, & Salawu, 2015),
that the property market, by nature, is property characteristics, valuation

Volume 2, No. 1., June, (2020), 517-523 |ajees@buk.edu.ng|


environment, valuation process, and Development put Nigeria‟s debt to mortgage
individual characteristics of valuers/ valuation ratio, a measure of the penetration of mortgage
firms (Babawale & Omirin, 2012), the nature section at a dismal 4% (Peeble, 2012). In spite
and state of the property market (Aluko, 1998) of the relative growth in Nigerian mortgage
and other factors. Since there is a consensus on sector, the 4% figure is one of the lowest in
the existence of valuation inaccuracy, and by Africa behind South Africa (30%), Namibia
extension mortgage valuation inaccuracy, then (20%), Morocco (15%) and Tunisia (13%)
of course efforts should focus on the margin of (Peeble 2012). This shows the need for
error to be tolerated. This has been a matter of mortgage valuation to be accurate and reliable
court rulings and academic discourse as so as to serve as surrogate of actual price and a
reported by Adebayo & Iroham (2011), in the catalyst to mortgage recapitalization.
case of Singer Friedlander Ltd v John D. Wood and
Co {1977] EGLR 84, Watkins J. ruled that: “the Previous researches worked on inaccuracy of
permissible margin of error to be generally accepted is valuation in diverse perspectives as property
±10% of either side of the figure which can be said type (Oduyemi, 2016), based on purpose of
to be the right side of the figure. He further stated valuation (Babawale, 2008), whose purpose
that 15% or a little more either way can be accepted was on sale valuations, Ayedun, 2009 on
as permissible margin of error in exceptional auction valuation, while Jamilu(2015) worked
circumstances”. However, there is no single on factors affecting inaccuracy of valuation in
report decided by a Nigerian court in this general without narrowing down to a purpose
respect despite the increasing volume of of valuation. More so, Olaeye & Olojede
mortgage transactions. However, the ruling of (2013) recorded client‟s dissatisfaction on
courts setting the maximum acceptable margin reliability of mortgage valuation caused by
of error ±15% is criticized as defective on large disparity between final option of value
empirical evidence and therefore flawed and fixed sales price on foreclosed mortgage
(Crosby, Lavers, & Murdoch, 1998). properties. This signifies the role of client‟s
feedback which according to Gallimore &
Performance of the mortgage industry in Wolverton (2000) achieves valuation
Nigeria is rated low compared with other objective. Similarly, Chukwu & Osmund
nation, amidst mild growth in the sector. It (2014) reported total neglect of valuation
was reported by Walley (2009) that the standards by valuers in the course of their
Nigerian mortgage industry generated less than assignment, in addition to inadequate
100,000 transactions between 1960 and 2009 supervision by subordinates assigned by
(a period of about 50 years). The sector's principal of the firm. Other contributing
aggregate loans to total assets fall far below factors to the problem are; dearth of rental
best practices of at least 70% as stipulated by evidence and inaccurate capitalization rate
Central Bank of Nigeria. According to his (Ayedun, 2009). To worsen the situation,
report, mortgage to loan funds for the five some valuers abandon the correct procedures
years ending 2009 averaged a dismal 14.51% of arriving at opinion of values and resort to
while the total mortgage market is up at a satisfying the mortgagor‟s demand in terms of
mere N127.5 billion (US $850 million). The value by way of demanding and accepting
contribution of mortgage finance to Nigeria‟s gratification from the mortgagors (Effiong,
GDP is close to negligible with real estate 2015; Munshifira, 2016; Babawale & Omirin
contributing less than 5%, and mortgage loans 2012). Most of these studies considered
and advances at 0.5% of GDP. The former valuation accuracy generally but do not
Minister of Lands, Housing and Urban extensively assess the factors influencing

Volume 2, No. 2., December, (2020), xxx-xxx |ajees@buk.edu.ng|


mortgage valuation inaccuracy, and do not valuation has become a consensus among the
establish a nexus between them and the courts, academia and the professionals
valuers‟ perceived acceptable margin of error (Babawale & Omirin, 2011), the point of
to serve as a proxy of valuation inaccuracy, at contention is on the margin of error to be
least in Kaduna metropolis. This paper tolerated (Ayedun, Oloyede, & Durodola,
therefore seeks to bridge the gap by 2012).
establishing a nexus between acceptable margin
of error in mortgage valuation and the The issue of valuation variance was determined
influential factors affecting mortgage valuation by a competent court of jurisdiction in the
inaccuracy in Kaduna metropolis with a view case of Singer Friedlander Ltd v John D. Wood and
to improving quality of mortgage valuation Co {1977] EGLR 84, Watkins J. ruled that:
practice. valuation of land by trained, competent and
careful professional‟s men is a task which
2.1 MORTGAGE VALUATION rarely, if ever, admits of precise conclusion.
According to Babawale (2007), one of the best Often beyond certain well-founded facts so
known definition of valuation is advanced by many imponderables confront the valuer that
International Valuation Standard Committee he is obliged to proceed on the basis of
(IVSC, 2004), wich defines valuation as the assumptions (Adebayo & Iroham, 2011). The
amount for which a property should exchange valuer should therefore not be blamed for
on the date of valuation between a willing arriving at erroneous values. For two
buyer and willing seller in an arm‟s length experienced valuers arriving at different value
transaction after proper marketing wherein the of a given property no one can justify the fact
parties had acted knowledgeably, prudently that any one of them is lacking in competence,
and without compulsion. According to reasonable care or less integrity in carrying out
Effiong(2015), valuation plays an important the job. However, the court accepted ±10% in
role in determination of value of properties respect of a valuation of large rural site
either for mortgage, sale, purchase, rental, intended for residential development. They
compensation, insurance, rating etc. for this adopted ±15% for commercial properties as
value to serve it intended purpose, it must be seen in the case of Corisand Investment Ltd v
accurate for in accurate valuation figure Druce & Co [1978] 2 EGLR 86 (Ajibola,
discredit the credibility of valuation exercise. 2010). A permissible margin of error of ±15%
on either side of the bracket of value was
Valuation inaccuracy is a threat to credibility accepted by another trial judge in the case of
and relevance of valuation profession, if Private Bank and Trust Co vs Struss (UK) Ltd
valuations have only a limited „likelihood of [1983] (Adebayo & Iroham, 2011). However,
accuracy, clients may question why valuation is there is no report of decided case by a Nigerian
necessary at all and it could mean that court discovered by the researcher.
performance measurement for investment
properties would be a fruitless exercise (Brown Empirically, the margin of error reported in
& Matysiak 2000). Valuation inaccuracy is the Nigerian property market is high. For
simply a deviation of the assessed value from instance, Ajibola (2006) in a study conducted
the actual sale price. Wider difference signifies on accuracy of valuation in Lagos state, found
higher level of inaccuracy and reverse of the the margin of error in valuation to be between
case is more desirable. The degree of deviation +24.82% and +51.54% for Ikoyi and Ojodu
represents the margin of error in the valuation areas of Lagos State respectively. Ogunba and
exercise. Since the inevitability of inaccuracy in Ajayi (1998) found a margin of -33.43% and

Volume 2, No. 2., December, (2020), xxx-xxx |ajees@buk.edu.ng|


36.47% for Victoria Island and Ikoyi values could be reported as a range rather than
respectively. All these margins exceeded the single point estimate while recommending the
established +15% acceptable margin of error, use of statistical analysis in conducting
thus pointing the worse scenario in Nigeria. valuation by valuers as a strategy to improve
Aluko (2004) conducted a research on valuation accuracy and reliable value
mortgage valuation and subsequent sale price predication.
of mortgaged properties used as collateral
securities from bank records of mortgage Studies by Oluwunmi, Ajayi, Olaleye and
valuation conducted by fifty-nine (59) estate Fagbenle (2011) focused on clients satisfaction
firms in Lagos Metropolis were examined. Sale with mortgage valuation reports in Nigeria,
prices of the properties were compared with and observed the need for mortgage valuation
their earlier valuation estimates and analysed practitioners to engage in thorough search of
by means of regression/ANOVA, it was additional information to improve knowledge
concluded that valuation in Nigeria are good and best practice in mortgage valuation
proxy for price. reporting, as valuer needs to provide adequate,
appropriate and relevant information upon
Aluko (2004) conducted a study to find out which the bank rely to grant mortgage facility.
how reliable valuations for mortgage purposes The results have shown that mortgage
were, examined if open market valuations valuation reporting has not been able to offer
were good proxy for prices in Lagos optimum satisfaction to clients.
metropolis, and interviewed 42 lending
institutions and 59 estate surveying and It is clear from the literatures reviewed that
valuation firms through stratified sampling. His bulk of the mortgage valuation accuracy
methodology regressed the open market value researches were basically for determination of
for mortgage of each of the sampled properties open market value in residential property
onto its transaction prices. In order to test the focusing on the causative factors of inaccuracy
reliability of mortgage valuation, data was in mortgage valuation while their influence on
collected on 121 open market sales acceptable margin of error remain unknown. It
transactions on mortgaged residential is therefore necessary to bridge this gap by
properties by the Nigeria Deposit Insurance determining the extent to which mortgage
Corporation (NDIC), lending institution and valuation inaccuracy relates to margin of error.
estate firms. The valuation preceded on the
same basis as mortgage valuation executed 3.1 MATERIAL AND METHOD
before a loan was given. Data collected was The paper collected quantitative data using
from January 1994 to December 2002. The structured survey questionnaire from 67 estate
result shows that the relationship between surveying and valuation firms in Kaduna
values and prices of the properties sampled was metropolis out of which a sample size of 57
78% and it was significant at P-Value=0.0000 was drawn using the Yammane‟s formula as
and 61% of the prices accounted for inaccuracy shown in equation 1 below.
in their values. The study concluded that
evidences from regression analysis shows ( )
relative degree of accuracy in the open market
valuation for mortgages and are therefore a ( )
good proxy for predicting market prices, ( )
although the accuracy is not as good as that Simple random sampling technique was used in
obtained in the UK, USA and Australia, but selecting the 57 respondents from population

Volume 2, No. 2., December, (2020), xxx-xxx |ajees@buk.edu.ng|


of the study. A structured close ended have a correlation of up to 0.7. Similarly, the
questionnaire was tested in a pilot survey and tolerance level was all above 0.1 and the VIF
the final improved version distributed to study are all below 10. Therefore, the data has no
respondents. Of the 57 questionnaire problem and satisfied the assumption of multi
distributed, 51, representing 90 percent, were co-linearity.
considered valid for data analysis. Reliability of
the instrument was tested using Cronbach‟s There have been a lot of arguments about using
alpha coefficients which revealed reliability of ordinal data in multiple regression analysis.
the instrument as all the items have alpha value However, this study used Likert scale in
above the recommended minimum of 0.7 multiple regression analysis based on the
(Pallant, 2011). following assumptions. Firstly, the dependent
variable of the study is continued and interval
Data collected was analysed using descriptive data which have equidistance between points.
and inferential statistics. Descriptively, the This satisfies the assumption of interval
data was analysed using percentages and dependent variable (Tabbachnick & Fidell,
presented in tables. Inferentially, the data was 2007; Field, 2005). Secondly, MRA requires
analysed using correlation and Multiple that the data should be normally distributed.
Regression Analysis (MRA). Regression All the data for this study were normally
analysis is mostly carried out to find out the distributed including the ordinal independent
predictive capacity of independent variables in variables. Similarly, Owuor (2001) studied the
the model to explain the dependent variable. implication of using Likert data in MRA and
In general, the model fit is evaluated using the found that the feared bias is significantly
R squared which called the coefficient of minimal provided the data is normally
determination by showing the amount of distributed. In the same direction, Norman
variance in the dependent variable that is (2010) shows that MRA is very robust and can
explained by the independent variables as handle most of the assumption of MRA
reported in (Tabachnick & Field, 2007; Field, accurately. He pointed out that if data is
2005). Multiple Regression Analysis (MRA) is normally distributed inferences can be drawn
based on some assumptions as data normality, using MRA even though, in strict term,
multi co-linearity, measurement scale and inferences may be difficult due to
outliers that may affect the accuracy of analysis characteristics of the data reflected in likert
outcome (Pallant, 2011). numbers, but it does not invalidate the earlier
assertion (Gaito, 1980). Norman (2010)
Based on the recommendation of George and concluded that MRA can be correctly used
Mallery (2010), data is normally distributed if with likert data. Since this study satisfied all the
the skewness and kurtosis value fall within the stated assumptions, the use of MRA is
range of -2 and +2. The Skewness values of all considered appropriate for the study.
the study variables were within the
recommended range. The multi co-linearity of 4.1 RESULT AND DISCUSSION
the independent variable are determined using 4.1.1 Respondents’ Profile
the tolerance level and variance inflation factor This section presents the valuers‟ individual
(VIF). The tolerance level is required to be characteristics such as their educational and
above 0.1 while the VIF is required to be less professional qualification, position occupied,
than 10 to avoid multi co-linearity problem membership of professional bodies and many
(Field, 2009; Pallant, 2011). The correlation more. The study found that majority of the
result of predictor shows that none of the pairs respondents were degree holders taking 55%

Volume 2, No. 2., December, (2020), xxx-xxx |ajees@buk.edu.ng|


followed by HND (National Higher Diploma) percent reported been equally RICS members.
holders (32%) then those holding M.Sc. (10%) Majority of them update themselves by
and Ph.D. (3%) most of whom were attending seminars, lectures, in-house training
Associates of the Nigerian Institution of Estate and continuous professional development.
Surveyors and Valuers (NIESV) at a percentage
of 65% followed by probationers of the The youngest estate firm surveyed in Kaduna is
institution who took 20%. However, only few 8 years old while the eldest is 25 years old. The
are FNIVS at (13%) and PPNIVS members median age of firm in Kaduna was 10 years
(2%). All the respondents work in the while the average age of the firms was 13.5
valuation unit for a period of 1-5 years (55%) years. Valuations mostly carried in Kaduna
followed by those between 6 and 10 years were for mortgage purposes followed by sales,
(45%), and had carriedout an average number rental, asset, insurance, rating, probate and for
of valuation between 0 and 10 monthly. All the balance sheet purpose ranked 1st to 8th
respondents are NIESV members with 11 respectively.

4.1.2 Acceptable Margin of Error


The respondents perceived acceptable margin of error in mortgage valuation is presented in table 1
below.
Table1: Acceptable Margin of error in mortgage valuation
Margin of Error Frequency Percent
11-15 % 14 27.5
16-20 % 33 64.7
Above 20 % 4 7.8
Total 51 100.0

Results from the study revealed that 64 per The nexus between acceptable margin of
cent of the respondents said the acceptable errors and the mortgage valuation inaccuracy
margin of error is 16-20 per cent while 27.5 influential factors is determined using
per cent were of the opinion that the correlation analysis and MRA as presented in
acceptable margin of error is between 11-15 tables 2-4 below.
per cent. However, 7.8 per cent of the
respondents considered margin above 20 per Table 2 shows the correlation between factors.
cent as acceptable. The result conforms to The result shows that most of the factors are
what is obtainable in the Nigeria property related with one another. However, the
market valuation as found by the study of relationship is within limit as none of the
Ajibola (2006) who reported margin of error factors is having a correlation coefficient of up
in valuation falling within +24.82% and to 0.7 with any other factor. Therefore, the
+51.54% for Ikoyi and Ojodu areas of Lagos assumption of multi co-linearity is achieved. In
State respectively. Ogunba and Ajayi (1998) order to develop a model for mortgage
found a margin of -33.43% and 36.47% for valuation accuracy in Kaduna residential
Victoria Island and Ikoyi respectively. All these property market, the valuers‟ perceived
margins exceeded the established +15% acceptable margin of error is proxied to
acceptable margin of error by Ajibola (2010). represent mortgage valuation inaccuracy. This
is because the higher the error a valuer is
Nexus between Acceptable Margin of Error willing to accept, the more prone the valuation
and Mortgage Valuation Inaccuracy is to inaccuracy and vice versa. The study used

Volume 2, No. 2., December, (2020), xxx-xxx |ajees@buk.edu.ng|


Multiple Regression Analysis (MRA) to model mortgage valuation inaccuracy, is modelled as
the variables of the study. Therefore, this study dependent variable of the study. The factors
modelled the effect of those factors influencing influencing mortgage valuation inaccuracy,
mortgage valuation inaccuracy on acceptable nine (9) predictors, were modelled as the
margin of error in mortgage valuation. The independent variables of the study. The model
acceptable margin of error, the proxy of is presented in tables below.

Table 2: Correlates of Acceptable Margin of Error


FACTORS F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F6 F7 F8 F9
Acceptable Margin of
1
Error
Valuation methodology -.082 1
**
Problems of relevant data .527 .007 1
Client pressure .106 .058 -.215 1
** **
Regulatory framework .518 -.084 .650 -.299* 1
National valuation
.653** -.206 .300* -.293* .286* 1
standard
Skills, experience and
.687** -.294* .597** .006 .45** .57** 1
judgement
Characteristics of the
.676** -.136 .233 .130 .342* .586** .58** 1
market
Valuation assumptions .542** -.294* .100 .050 .251 .444** .31* .33* 1
Familiarity with property ** ** ** ** **
.612 -.520 .169 -.117 .214 .658 .71 .56 .64**
market
*Significant at 0.05 level
**Significant at 0.01 level

Table 3: Model Summary


Model R R Square Adjusted R Std. Error of the
Square Estimate F Sig.

1 0.906 0.821 0.781 0.26492 20.836 0.000

The model shows that 82.1 per cent of the influencing inaccuracy is familiarity with
variance in acceptable margin of error, used as property market with standardized beta
proxy of valuation inaccuracy (R square coefficient of 0.383 which is significant as
0.821), is explained by the factors influencing shown by a t-value of 2.165 followed by client
mortgage valuation inaccuracy. The model pressure with beta of 0.360 and t-value of
shows an F statistic value of 20.836 which is 3.734. Other factors significantly influencing
significant at 0.1 level as shown by 0.000 p- mortgage valuation inaccuracy are absence of
value. The individual influence of each factor in national valuation standard, problem of
influencing mortgage valuation inaccuracy as relevant data, regulatory framework and
presented in table 4 below. valuation methodology with standardized beta
coefficients of 0.338, 0.305, 0.252 and 0.193
Table 4 shows the specific influence of factors with t-values of 3.092, 2.677, 2.441 and 2.375
on acceptable margin of error. The result all above the recommended threshold of 2
shows that the most significant factor respectively. However, skills experience and

Volume 2, No. 2., December, (2020), xxx-xxx |ajees@buk.edu.ng|


judgment of the valuer, characteristics of the standardized beta values of -.117, 0.125, and
property market and valuation assumption 0.088 with t-values of -.737, 1.204, and 0.822
were not statistically significant in determining below the recommended threshold of 2
mortgage valuation inaccuracy as shown by respectively.
Table 4: Model Coefficients
Unstandardized

Tolerance
Coefficients
Model t Sig. VIF
Std.
B Beta
Error
(Constant) -1.35 .591 -2.286 .027 .662 1.510
Valuation methodology .170 .072 .193 2.375 .022 .336 2.973
Problems of relevant data .221 .082 .305 2.677 .011 .471 2.125
Client pressure .304 .081 .360 3.734 .001 .410 2.439
Regulatory framework .165 .068 .252 2.441 .019 .365 2.737
Absence of national valuation
.215 .070 .338 3.092 .004 .172 5.798
standard
Skills, experience and judgment of
-.060 .082 -.117 -.737 .465 .409 2.447
the valuer
Characteristics of the property
.092 .077 .125 1.204 .235 .384 2.607
market
Valuation assumptions .043 .052 .088 .822 .416 .140 7.148
familiarity with property market
.188 .087 .383 2.165 .036 .662 1.510

However, skills, experience and judgment of values of 0.465, 0.235, and 0.416 above the
the valuer, characteristics of the property recommended 0.05 respectively.
market and valuation assumption were also not As the model is statistically significant, it can
statistically significant in determining mortgage be presented in linear multiple regression
valuation inaccuracy as shown by standardized equation as shown below.
beta values of -.117, 0.125, and 0.088 with p-

Acceptable Margin of error (Inaccuracy) = -


1.351+0.170(x1)+0.221(x2)+0.304(x3)+0.165(x4)+0.215(x5)-0.060(x6) +0.092(x7) +0.043(x8)
+0.188(x9)

Where:
X1= Valuation methodology, X2= Problems of relevant data, X3= Client pressure, X4=
Regulatory framework, X5= Absence of national valuation standard, X6= Skills, experience and
judgment of the valuer, X7= Characteristics of the property market, X8= Valuation assumptions,
X9= Familiarity with property market

5.1 CONCLUSION AND the academia, professional and the courts.


RECOMMENDATION Since there is a consensus on the inevitability of
valuation inaccuracy, and by extension
The inevitability of inaccuracy in valuations of mortgage valuation inaccuracy, the onus of
real estate assumes a general consensus among current debate lies on the margin of error to be

Volume 2, No. 2., December, (2020), xxx-xxx |ajees@buk.edu.ng|


tolerated. This study assessed the acceptable Aluko, B. T., (2004). Reliability of mortgage valuation
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