X Y XY X2 (X-X1) (Y-Y1) (X-X1)(Y-Y1)

1 650 650 1 -5.5 -2133.33333 11733.3333333333

2 1550 3100 4 -4.5 -1233.33333 5550
3 1500 4500 9 -3.5 -1283.33333 4491.66666666667
4 1500 6000 16 -2.5 -1283.33333 3208.33333333333
5 2400 12000 25 -1.5 -383.333333 575
6 3100 18600 36 -0.5 316.666667 -158.333333333333
7 2600 18200 49 0.5 -183.333333 -91.6666666666668
8 2900 23200 64 1.5 116.666667 175
9 3800 34200 81 2.5 1016.66667 2541.66666666667
10 4500 45000 100 3.5 1716.66667 6008.33333333333
11 4000 44000 121 4.5 1216.66667 5475
12 4900 58800 144 5.5 2116.66667 11641.6666666667
6.5 2783.33333 22354.1667 54.1666667 0 0 4262.5
78 33400 268250 650 0 0 51150
 (X-X1)^2 (Y-Y1)^2 y=ax + b
30.25 4551111.11 a 357.692308 x y
20.25 1521111.11 1 816.025641
12.25 1646944.44 b 458.333333 2 1173.71795
6.25 1646944.44 3 1531.41026
2.25 146944.444 r 0.9661201 4 1889.10256
0.25 100277.778 5 2246.79487
0.25 33611.1111 r^2 0.93338806 6 2604.48718
2.25 13611.1111 7 2962.17949
6.25 1033611.11 y=357,69x + 458,33 8 3319.87179
12.25 2946944.44 9 3677.5641
20.25 1480277.78 10 4035.25641
30.25 4480277.78 11 4392.94872
11.9166667 1633472.22 Promedio 12 4750.64103
143 19601666.7 Sumatoria

Chart Title
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
 Calculo del consumo (Mi viviend
Equipos Potencia W Cantidad Tiempo (H) Consumo diario KWh Dias
Focos led globo 20 3 4 240 30
Focos led plano 28 2 0.3 16.8 30
Focos led pequeños 10 5 2 100 30
Refrigeradora 230 1 19 4370 30
Bomba de agua 375 1 3 1125 30
Lavadora 350 1 3 1050 20
Plancha 1200 1 0.1 120 30
Licuadora 400 1 0.1 40 20
Televisor LCD 95 1 6 570 30
otros 5 1 2 10 30
Router 20 1 24 480 30
Mi vivienda)
Consumo mensual
7200
504
3000
131100
33750
21000
3600
800
17100
300
14400
232754 KWh
 REGRESIÓN LINEAL
Fecha X [mes] y=ln(dem) [dm-Kwh] (X-X1) (Y-Y1)
Jan-21 1 5.5568280617 259 -11 0.080113030566
Feb-21 2 5.52545293913 251 -10 0.048737907999
Mar-21 3 5.68017260902 293 -9 0.203457577884
Apr-21 4 4.96981329958 144 -8 -0.50690173156
May-21 5 5.34233425196 209 -7 -0.13438077917
Jun-21 6 5.48479693349 241 -6 0.008081902357
Jul-21 7 5.34710753072 210 -5 -0.12960750042
Aug-21 8 5.37989735354 217 -4 -0.09681767759
Sep-21 9 5.36129216571 213 -3 -0.11542286542
Oct-21 10 5.38907172982 219 -2 -0.08764330132
Nov-21 11 5.44673737167 232 -1 -0.02997765947
Dec-21 12 5.52545293913 251 0 0.048737907999
Jan-22 13 5.40717177146 223 1 -0.06954325967
Feb-22 14 5.37063802813 215 2 -0.10607700301
Mar-22 15 5.49716822529 244 3 0.02045319416
Apr-22 16 5.45958551414 235 4 -0.01712951699
May-22 17 5.45103845357 233 5 -0.02567657757
Jun-22 18 5.43807930892 230 6 -0.03863572221
Jul-22 19 5.43807930892 230 7 -0.03863572221
Aug-22 20 5.91889385427 372 8 0.44217882314
Sep-22 21 5.66296048014 288 9 0.186245449003
Oct-22 22 5.66642668811 289 10 0.189711656979
Nov-22 23 5.64544689764 283 11 0.16873186651
12 5.47671503113 242.652173913 0 1.93082265E-16
276 125.964445716 5581 0 4.4408921E-15
A B

DETERMINACIÓN DE K

Variable 1
Media 12
Varianza 46
Observaciones 23
Diferencia hipotética de las medias 0
Grados de libertad 22
K o Estadístico t 4.611085461825
P(T<=t) una cola 6.78145537E-05
 Valor crítico de t (una cola) 1.71714437438
P(T<=t) dos colas 0.000135629107
Valor crítico de t (dos colas) 2.073873067904

SIGMA #VALUE!

VALORES QUE TOMA LA RECTA MÍNI

Xi[mes]
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

PREDICCIÓN DE LOS LÍMITE

C´ F
X[mes] (X-Xm)^2/C ((1+(1/n)+C´))^(1/2)
24 0.14229249 1.08893101296094
25 0.166996047 1.10021557355838
26 0.193675889 1.11227431427577
27 0.222332016 1.1250823421776
28 0.252964427 1.13861437183404
29 0.285573123 1.15284490864956
30 0.320158103 1.16774841624228
31 0.356719368 1.18329946693916
32 0.395256917 1.19947287500202
33 0.435770751 1.21624381266986
34 0.47826087 1.23358790948792
35 0.522727273 1.25148133569656
 PRONÓSTICO DE LA DEMANDA
825
800
775
750
725
700
675
650
625
600
575
550
525
500
DEMANDA [kWh]

475
450
425
400
375
350
325
300
275
250 f(x) = 2.73418972332016 x + 209.841897233202
225 R² = 0.183302961160009
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2

MES
RESIÓN LINEAL
(X-X1)(Y-Y1) (X-X1)^2 (Y-Y1)^2 X*Y X^2
-0.881243336229618 121 0.006418097667 5.556828062 1
-0.48737907998575 100 0.002375383676 11.05090588 4
-1.83111820095473 81 0.041394985998 17.04051783 9
4.05521385245766 64 0.256949365456 19.8792532 16
0.940665454178783 49 0.01805819381 26.71167126 25
-0.048491414144678 36 6.53171457E-05 32.9087816 36
0.6480375020787 25 0.016798104164 37.42975272 49
0.387270710370995 16 0.009373662694 43.03917883 64
0.346268596271349 9 0.013322437863 48.25162949 81
0.175286602633415 4 0.007681348266 53.8907173 100
0.0299776594668986 1 0.000898660067 59.91411109 121
0 0 0.002375383676 66.30543527 144
-0.0695432596730896 1 0.004836264966 70.29323303 169
-0.212154006011092 4 0.011252330567 75.18893239 196
0.0613595824799811 9 0.000418333151 82.45752338 225
-0.0685180679561981 16 0.000293420352 87.35336823 256
-0.128382887837541 25 0.000659286636 92.66765371 289
-0.231814333260077 36 0.001492719031 97.88542756 324
-0.27045005547009 49 0.001492719031 103.3235069 361
3.5374305851195 64 0.195522111633 118.3778771 400
1.67620904102464 81 0.034687367274 118.9221701 441
1.89711656979224 100 0.035990512794 124.6613871 484
1.85605053161032 121 0.028470442776 129.8452786 529
0.494860523737462 44 0.030035932552 66.2154409 188 Promedio
11.3817920459616 1012 0.690826448693 1522.955141 4324 Sumatoria
D C E

N DE K

Variable 2
5.476715031133
0.031401202213
23
A LA RECTA MÍNIMO CUADRÁTICA EN LA PROYECCION
Xi-Xm y=Ym + m*(Xi-Xm) PRONÓSTICO=EXP(y)
12 5.61167699215251 273.6026830453
13 5.62292382223746 276.6972151515
14 5.6341706523224 279.8267473858
15 5.64541748240734 282.9916756107
16 5.65666431249228 286.1924001658
17 5.66791114257722 289.4293259189
18 5.67915797266217 292.7028623169
19 5.69040480274711 296.0134234376
20 5.70165163283205 299.3614280423
21 5.71289846291699 302.7472996285
22 5.72414529300194 306.1714664837
23 5.73539212308688 309.6343617393

N DE LOS LÍMITES OPTIMISTASY PESIMISTAS

F G PRONÓSTICO OPTIMISTA PRONÓSTICO PESIMISTA
((1+(1/n)+C´))^(1/2) K*SIGMA*F y+G EXP(y+G) y-G EXP(y-G)
1.08893101296094 0.822011013 6.43368800526 622.4653755949 4.789665979 120.2611922
1.10021557355838 0.830529489 6.4534533117 634.8909879911 4.792394333 120.5897553
1.11227431427577 0.839632378 6.47380303036 647.9431949254 4.794538274 120.84857
1.1250823421776 0.849300888 6.49471837008 661.6378620489 4.796116595 121.0394584
1.13861437183404 0.859515931 6.51618024343 675.9913252063 4.797148382 121.1644097
1.15284490864956 0.870258262 6.53816940507 691.0204409811 4.79765288 121.2255524
1.16774841624228 0.881508605 6.56066657813 706.7426368041 4.797649367 121.2251266
1.18329946693916 0.893247765 6.5836525678 723.1759603081 4.797157038 121.1654586
1.19947287500202 0.905456729 6.6071083619 740.3391277008 4.796194904 121.0489372
1.21624381266986 0.918116756 6.63101521847 758.2515710172 4.794781707 120.8779921
1.23358790948792 0.931209448 6.65535474077 776.9334841866 4.792935845 120.6550738
1.25148133569656 0.944716817 6.68010894022 796.4058679177 4.790675306 120.3826363
STICO DE LA DEMANDA UTILIZANDO REGRESION LINEAL

Demand
Linear (
Linear (
Pronósti
Pronósti
Pronósti

2 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

MES
 REGRESION LINEAL
a 0.01124683
DEMANDA LINEA
6
b 5.34175307

r 0.430463083 5.8

r^2 0.185298466
5.6
ECUACIÓN DE LA RECTA f(x) = 0.0112468300849423 x + 5.3417530701139
R² = 0.18529846598272

y=0,0112x + 3,5418 5.4

𝑎= (𝑛 ∑▒ 〖𝑥𝑦 − ∑▒𝑥 ∑ 5.2

▒𝑦〗 )/(𝑛 ∑▒𝑥^2 −

(∑▒ 〖𝑥 ) 〗^2 ) 5

b = (∑▒𝑦 −𝑎
∑▒𝑥)/(𝑛 ) 4.8

r = (∑▒ 〖 (𝑥−𝑥 ̅)
4.6
(𝑦−𝑦 ̅) 〗)/(√(∑▒ 〖 (𝑥
−𝑥 ̅) 〗^2 )∗√( 〖 (𝑦−𝑦 ̅ 4.4
0 5 10
) 〗^2 ))
CION
 Demanda [kWh]
Linear (Demanda [kWh])
Linear (Demanda [kWh])
Pronóstico=Exp(y)
Pronóstico Pesimista
Pronóstico Optimista

36
MANDA LINEALIZADA LN(y) CONSUMO

400

350

+ 5.3417530701139 300

250

200

150

100

50

0
10 15 20 25 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
 CONSUMO DE ENERGÍA ENTRE 2020-2021
[KWh]

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Fecha X [mes] y=ln(dem) [dm-Kwh] (X-X1) (Y-Y1) (X-X1)(Y-Y1)
Jan-21 1 5.556828062 259 -11 0.0801130306 -0.881243336229618
Feb-21 2 5.525452939 251 -10 0.048737908 -0.48737907998575
Mar-21 3 5.680172609 293 -9 0.2034575779 -1.83111820095473
Apr-21 4 4.9698133 144 -8 -0.506901732 4.05521385245766
May-21 5 5.342334252 209 -7 -0.134380779 0.940665454178783
Jun-21 6 5.484796933 241 -6 0.0080819024 -0.048491414144678
Jul-21 7 5.347107531 210 -5 -0.1296075 0.6480375020787
Aug-21 8 5.379897354 217 -4 -0.096817678 0.387270710370995
Sep-21 9 5.361292166 213 -3 -0.115422865 0.346268596271349
Oct-21 10 5.38907173 219 -2 -0.087643301 0.175286602633415
Nov-21 11 5.446737372 232 -1 -0.029977659 0.0299776594668986
Dec-21 12 5.525452939 251 0 0.048737908 0
Jan-22 13 5.407171771 223 1 -0.06954326 -0.0695432596730896
Feb-22 14 5.370638028 215 2 -0.106077003 -0.212154006011092
Mar-22 15 5.497168225 244 3 0.0204531942 0.0613595824799811
Apr-22 16 5.459585514 235 4 -0.017129517 -0.0685180679561981
May-22 17 5.451038454 233 5 -0.025676578 -0.128382887837541
Jun-22 18 5.438079309 230 6 -0.038635722 -0.231814333260077
Jul-22 19 5.438079309 230 7 -0.038635722 -0.27045005547009
Aug-22 20 5.918893854 372 8 0.4421788231 3.5374305851195
Sep-22 21 5.66296048 288 9 0.186245449 1.67620904102464
Oct-22 22 5.666426688 289 10 0.189711657 1.89711656979224
Nov-22 23 5.645446898 283 11 0.1687318665 1.85605053161032
12 5.476715031 242.65217391 0 1.930823E-16 0.494860523737462
276 125.9644457 5581 0 4.440892E-15 11.3817920459616
A B D

DETERMINACIÓN DE K

Variable 1 Variable 2
Media 12 5.4767150311
Varianza 46 0.0314012022
Observaciones 23 23
Diferencia hipotética de las medias 0
Grados de libertad 22
K o Estadístico t 4.61108546182
P(T<=t) una cola 6.78145537E-05
Valor crítico de t (una cola) 1.71714437438
P(T<=t) dos colas 0.00013562911
Valor crítico de t (dos colas) 2.0738730679
 SIGMA 0.163709581

VALORES Q
EXPONENCIAL POLINOMICA LOGARÍTMICA
Xi[mes] y=ae^bx DEMANDA y=ax2+bx+c DEMANDA y=a*ln(x) + b DEMANDA
24 5.616243957 274.8550746 5.7827 324.634521396 5.5233026915 250.460868
25 5.628050462 278.1193845 5.8385 343.264058212 5.5253437912 250.972605
26 5.639881787 281.4294478 5.8979 364.271693527 5.5273048269 251.465254
27 5.651737983 284.7859891 5.9609 387.959130379 5.5291918433 251.940222
28 5.663619103 288.189746 6.0275 414.677039836 5.5310102255 252.398762
29 5.675525201 291.6414686 6.0977 444.833475602 5.5327647915 252.842001
30 5.687456327 295.1419204 6.1715 478.903923477 5.5344598691 253.270951
31 5.699412535 298.6918783 6.2489 517.443323844 5.5360993602 253.686527
32 5.711393877 302.2921328 6.3299 561.100480999 5.5376867951 254.089558
33 5.723400407 305.9434885 6.4145 610.635366793 5.5392253781 254.480797
34 5.735432176 309.6467639 6.5027 666.939942078 5.5407180262 254.860931
35 5.74748924 313.4027923 6.5945 731.06326366 5.5421674031 255.230588

PREDICCIÓN DE LOS LÍMITES O

 Regresion Exponencial
PRONÓSTICO OPTIMISTA PRONÓSTICO PESIMISTA
X[mes] y+G EXP(y+G) y-G EXP(y-G) 790
24 6.43825497 625.3146545 4.7942329441 120.811676924
690
25 6.458579951 638.1542029 4.7975209725 121.209562926
26 6.479514165 651.6542726 4.8002494085 121.540727028 590
27 6.501038871 665.8329882 4.8024370953 121.806911125

DEMANDA
490
28 6.523135034 680.7090901 4.8041031726 122.010020007
29 6.545783463 696.3019922 4.8052669382 122.152093724 390
30 6.568964932 712.6318391 4.8059477214 122.235281135
31 6.5926603 729.7195628 4.8061647697 122.261814978 290
32 6.616850606 747.58694 4.805937148 122.233988705
190
33 6.641517162 766.2566472 4.8052836511 122.154135267
34 6.666641624 785.7523168 4.8042227287 122.024607927 90
0 2 4 6
35 6.692206057 806.0985912 4.8027724224 121.847763139

Regresion Polinomica
PRONÓSTICO OPTIMISTA PRONÓSTICO PESIMISTA
X[mes] y+G EXP(y+G) y-G EXP(y-G) 1810
24 6.604711013 738.5664024 4.9606889869 142.692075006
25 6.669029489 787.6308294 5.0079705105 149.600814574 1510
26 6.737532378 843.4767839 5.058267622 157.317746313
27 6.810200888 907.0530044 5.1115991123 165.935492317 1210
DEMANDA

28 6.887015931 979.4742332 5.1679840691 175.560562538

910
29 6.967958262 1062.052104 5.2274417375 186.315549228
30 7.053008605 1156.332463 5.2899913945 198.341718579
610
31 7.142147765 1264.140552 5.3556522349 211.802076027
32 7.235356729 1387.63582 5.4244432709 226.884997675 310
33 7.332616756 1529.37855 5.4963832445 243.808539831
34 7.433909448 1692.41105 5.5714905522 262.82556265 10
0 2 4 6
35 7.539216817 1880.356785 5.6497831829 284.229833246
 10
0 2 4 6

Regresion Logaritmica
700
PRONÓSTICO OPTIMISTA PRONÓSTICO PESIMISTA
650
X[mes] y+G EXP(y+G) y-G EXP(y-G)
600
24 6.345313705 569.8161156 4.7012916784 110.089280601 550
25 6.355873281 575.8650129 4.6948143018 109.378495364 500
26 6.366937205 582.2717161 4.6876724489 108.600113092 450
27 6.378492731 589.0391977 4.6798909556 107.758321492 400

DEMANDA
28 6.390526156 596.170176 4.6714942946 106.857299473 350
300
29 6.403023054 603.6672008 4.662506529 105.901194178
250
30 6.415968475 611.532728 4.6529512636 104.894099353
200
31 6.429347125 619.7691843 4.6428515952 103.840035536 150
32 6.443143524 628.379023 4.6322300661 102.742932348 100
33 6.457342134 637.3647729 4.6211086225 101.606613093 50
34 6.471927474 646.7290799 4.6095085785 100.434781693 0
0 2 4 6
35 6.48688422 656.4747426 4.5974505859 99.2310119546

Regresion Potencial
PRONÓSTICO OPTIMISTA PRONÓSTICO PESIMISTA
X[mes] y+G EXP(y+G) y-G EXP(y-G) 650

24 6.342894143 568.4390772 4.6988721171 109.823234819

550
25 6.353486445 574.4921567 4.6924274659 109.117738168
26 6.364582545 580.902277 4.6853177886 108.34469755
450
27 6.376169711 587.672436 4.6775679356 107.508287285
DEMANDA
28 6.388234256 594.805378 4.6692023944 106.612673643 350
29 6.400761768 602.3036789 4.6602452432 105.661991862
30 6.413737313 610.1698204 4.6507201016 104.660324516 250
31 6.427145611 618.4062545 4.6406500811 103.611681693
32 6.440971197 627.0154595 4.6300577385 102.519983289 150
33 6.455198545 635.9999883 4.6189650339 101.389043586
34 6.46981219 645.3625103 4.6073932949 100.222558183 50
0 2 4 6
35 6.484796821 655.1058469 4.5953631866 99.0240932454
 (X-X1)(Y-Y1) (X-X1)^2 (Y-Y1)^2 X*Y X^2
-0.881243336229618 121 0.0064180977 5.556828062 1
-0.48737907998575 100 0.0023753837 11.05090588 4
-1.83111820095473 81 0.041394986 17.04051783 9
5.9
4.05521385245766 64 0.2569493655 19.8792532 16
5.85
0.940665454178783 49 0.0180581938 26.71167126 25
-0.048491414144678 36 6.531715E-05 32.9087816 36 5.8

0.6480375020787 25 0.0167981042 37.42975272 49 5.75

0.387270710370995 16 0.0093736627 43.03917883 64 5.7
0.346268596271349 9 0.0133224379 48.25162949 81 5.65
0.175286602633415 4 0.0076813483 53.8907173 100 5.6
0.0299776594668986 1 0.0008986601 59.91411109 121 5.55
0 0 0.0023753837 66.30543527 144
5.5
-0.0695432596730896 1 0.004836265 70.29323303 169
5.45
-0.212154006011092 4 0.0112523306 75.18893239 196
0.0613595824799811 9 0.0004183332 82.45752338 225 5.4

-0.0685180679561981 16 0.0002934204 87.35336823 256 5.35

-0.128382887837541 25 0.0006592866 92.66765371 289 5.3
-0.231814333260077 36 0.001492719 97.88542756 324 5.25
-0.27045005547009 49 0.001492719 103.3235069 361 5.2
3.5374305851195 64 0.1955221116 118.3778771 400 5.15
1.67620904102464 81 0.0346873673 118.9221701 441
5.1
1.89711656979224 100 0.0359905128 124.6613871 484
5.05
1.85605053161032 121 0.0284704428 129.8452786 529
5
0.494860523737462 44 0.0300359326 66.2154409 188 Promedio
11.3817920459616 1012 0.6908264487 1522.955141 4324 Sumatoria 4.95
0 1 2
D C E
 VALORES QUE TOMA LA RECTA EN LA PROYECCIÓN
POTENCIAL EXPONENCIAL ECUACIÓN
y=a*x^(b) DEMANDA GRAFICA y=ae^bx
5.52088313 249.8555948
5.52295696 250.3742893 EXPONENCIAL
5.52495017 250.8738358 6
5.52686882 251.3556386 a
5.8
5.52871833 251.8209516 5.3402
5.6
5.53050351 252.2708989
f(x) = 5.34022621000077 exp( 0.0020610926
5.53222871 252.7064926 b 5.4
R² = 0.184511547632606
5.53389785 253.1286471 0.0021 5.2
5.53551447 253.5381913
5
5.53708179 253.9358788
5.53860274 254.3223972 4.8

5.54008 254.6983755 4.6

4.4
0 5 10 15 2

POLINOMICA ECUACIÓN
GRAFICA y=ae^bx

POLINOMICA
6
a
5.8
0.0018
f(x) = 0.00181724268097688 x² − 0.0323669942585028 x + 5.523477
5.6 R² = 0.354617373329013
b 5.4
-0.0324 5.2

5
c
5.5235 4.8

4.6

4.4
0 5 10 15 2

OS LÍMITES OPTIMISTASY PESIMISTAS

 C´ F
X[mes] (X-Xm)^2/C ((1+(1/n)+C´))^(1/2)
24 0.14229249 1.08893101296094
25 0.16699605 1.10021557355838
26 0.19367589 1.11227431427577
27 0.22233202 1.1250823421776
28 0.25296443 1.13861437183404
29 0.28557312 1.15284490864956
30 0.3201581 1.16774841624228
31 0.35671937 1.18329946693916
32 0.39525692 1.19947287500202
33 0.43577075 1.21624381266986
34 0.47826087 1.23358790948792
35 0.52272727 1.25148133569656

Pronostico de la Demanda Exponencial

790

690

590

490

390

290

190

90
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34
MES

Pronostico de la Demanda Polinomica

1810

1510

1210

910

610

310

10
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34
MES
 10
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34
MES

Pronostico de la Demanda Logaritmica

700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34
MES

Pronostico de la Demanda Potencial

650

550

450

350

250

150

50
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34
MES
 Regresión [linealizada], exponencial, polinómica, loga
5.9
5.85
5.8
5.75
5.7
5.65
5.6
5.55
5.5
5.45
5.4
5.35
5.3
5.25
5.2
5.15
5.1
5.05
5
4.95
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
A PROYECCIÓN
ECUACIÓN LOGARITMICA ECUA
y=ae^bx GRAFICA y=ae

EXPONENCIAL LOGARITMICA
6
a
5.8
0.05
5.6
1000077 exp( 0.00206109261948441 x ) f(x) = 0.0500196194427356 ln(x) + 5.364
b 5.4
7632606 R² = 0.054420704353198
5.3644 5.2

4.8

4.6

4.4
10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15

ECUACIÓN POTENCIAL ECUA

y=ae^bx GRAFICA y=ae

POLINOMICA POTENCIAL
6
a 5.8
5.3618
7688 x² − 0.0323669942585028 x + 5.52347733821159 5.6
3
5.4 f(x) = 5.3617624656135 x^0.00922928798561208
b R² = 0.0549334362914438
0.0092 5.2

4.8

4.6

4.4
10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15
 F G
((1+(1/n)+C´))^(1/2) K*SIGMA*F
1.08893101296094 0.82201101311
1.10021557355838 0.83052948946
1.11227431427577 0.83963237804
1.1250823421776 0.84930088767
1.13861437183404 0.85951593093
1.15284490864956 0.87025826249
1.16774841624228 0.88150860547
1.18329946693916 0.89324776505
1.19947287500202 0.90545672906
1.21624381266986 0.91811675555
1.23358790948792 0.93120944776
1.25148133569656 0.94471681713

Column D
Exponential (Column D)
Pronostico
Optimista
Pesimista

26 28 30 32 34 36

Column D
Polynomial (Column D)
Pronostico
Optimista
Pesimista

26 28 30 32 34 36
26 28 30 32 34 36

Column D
Logarithmic (Column D)
Pronostico
Optimista
Pesimista

26 28 30 32 34 36

Column D
Power (Column D)
Pronostico
Optimista
Pesimista

26 28 30 32 34 36
olinómica, logaritmica y potencial de consumo

Column C
Linear (Column C)
Exponential (Column C)
Logarithmic (Column C)
Polynomial (Column C)
Power (Column C)

14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
 ECUACIÓN
y=ae^bx

LOGARITMICA

194427356 ln(x) + 5.36448258449824

4353198

10 15 20 25

ECUACIÓN
y=ae^bx

POTENCIAL

5 x^0.00922928798561208
438

10 15 20 25
 TENDENCIA LINEA
AÑO MENSUAL ENERGÍA (KWh) MOVIL SIMPLE MOVIL DOBLE PERIODO
1 259 1
2 251 2
3 293 3
4 144 4
5 209 5
6 241 6
2021
7 210 232.833333333333 229.04166666667 7
8 217 225.25 223.75 8
9 213 222.25 220.20833333333 9
10 219 218.166666666667 221.95833333333 10
11 232 225.75 226.75 11
12 251 227.75 227.29166666667 12
1 223 226.833333333333 227.66666666667 13
2 215 228.5 234.95833333333 14
3 244 241.416666666667 244.54166666667 15
4 235 247.666666666667 250.58333333333 16
5 233 253.5 255.625 17
6 230 257.75 259.16666666667 18
2022
7 230 260.583333333333 19
8 372 20
9 288 21
10 289 22
11 283 23
12 285 24

PERIODO (KWh)
1 259
2 251 400
3 293
4 144 350

5 209 300
6 241 m 2.8296
f(x) = 2.8295652173913 x + 2
7 210 b 209.05 250
8 217
200
9 213
10 219 150
11 232
100
12 251
13 223 50
14 215
0
0 5
 100

50

15 244 0
0 5
16 235
17 233
18 230
19 230
20 372
21 288
22 289
23 283
24 285
DENCIA LINEAL
TENDENCIA b+m*t ESTACIONALIDAD ESTACIONALIDAD CORREGIDA PRONOSTICO
211.8796 101.35% 214.7447832012
214.7092 94.68% 203.294825524
217.5388 103.24% 224.5958622262
220.3684 97.04% 213.8420270423
223.198 94.31% 210.5091405948
226.0276 91.83% 207.557404171
228.8572 91.68637% 94.87% 217.1188067443
231.6868 96.98324% 100.35% 232.5016530168
234.5164 96.72658% 100.09% 234.718400061
237.346 98.66717% 102.09% 242.3163064427
240.1756 102.31533% 105.87% 254.2714720609
243.0052 110.43080% 114.27% 277.6731193743
245.8348 97.95022% 101.35% 249.1591490134
248.6644 91.50559% 94.68% 235.4448985512
251.494 99.77850% 103.24% 259.6525850778
254.3236 93.78118% 97.04% 246.7916187108
257.1532 91.14914% 94.31% 242.5339793959
259.9828 88.74598% 91.83% 238.7379023496
262.8124 94.87% 249.3323989178
265.642 100.35% 266.5762750001
268.4716 100.09% 268.7028472799
271.3012 102.09% 276.9825685601
274.1308 105.87% 290.2194979558
276.9604 114.27% 316.4724796472

(KWh)
400

350

300

f(x) = 2.8295652173913 x + 209.047101449275

250

200

150

100

50

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
100

50

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
 INDICE DE ESTACIONA
AÑO/MENSUAL 1 2 3 4
2021 0 0 0 0
2022 0.9795022 0.91505586 0.99778497 0.93781177
SUMA 0.9795022 0.91505586 0.99778497 0.93781177
PROMEDIO 0.9795022 0.91505586 0.99778497 0.93781177

INDICE DE ESTACIONA
AÑO/MENSUAL 1 2 3 4
2021 0 0 0 0
2022 1.01352269 0.94683798 1.03244048 0.97038426
SUMA 1.01352269 0.94683798 1.03244048 0.97038426
PROMEDIO 1.01352269 0.94683798 1.03244048 0.97038426
 INDICE DE ESTACIONALIDAD SIN AJUSTE
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0 0 0.91686374 0.9698324 0.96726585 0.98667167 1.02315325 1.10430797
0.91149144 0.88745981 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.91149144 0.88745981 0.91686374 0.9698324 0.96726585 0.98667167 1.02315325 1.10430797
0.91149144 0.88745981 0.91686374 0.9698324 0.96726585 0.98667167 1.02315325 1.10430797

FACTOR DE AJUSTE

INDICE DE ESTACIONALIDAD CON AJUSTE

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0 0 0.94870866 1.00351705 1.00086135 1.02094118 1.05868986 1.14266328
0.94314976 0.91828345 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.94314976 0.91828345 0.94870866 1.00351705 1.00086135 1.02094118 1.05868986 1.14266328
0.94314976 0.91828345 0.94870866 1.00351705 1.00086135 1.02094118 1.05868986 1.14266328
 SUMA
5.96809489
5.62910605
11.5972009
11.5972009

1.03473244

SUMA
6.17538137
5.82461863
12
12
 TENDENCIA EXPONE
AÑO MENSUAL ENERGÍA (KWh) MOVIL SIMPLE MOVIL DOBLE PERIODO
1 259 1
2 251 2
3 293 3
4 144 4
5 209 5
6 241 6
2021
7 210 228.25 226.75 7
8 217 225.25 223.75 8
9 213 222.25 220.20833333333 9
10 219 218.166666666667 221.95833333333 10
11 232 225.75 226.75 11
12 251 227.75 227.29166666667 12
1 223 226.833333333333 227.66666666667 13
2 215 228.5 234.95833333333 14
3 244 241.416666666667 244.54166666667 15
4 235 247.666666666667 250.58333333333 16
5 233 253.5 255.625 17
6 230 257.75 259.16666666667 18
2022
7 230 260.583333333333 19
8 372 20
9 288 21
10 289 22
11 283 23
12 285 24

PERIODO (KWh)
1 259
2 251 400
3 293
4 144 350

5 209 300
6 241 m 208.1700
250 f(x) = 208.169375669544 e
7 210 b 0.0117
8 217
200
9 213
10 219 150
11 232
100
12 251
13 223 50
14 215
0
0 5
 100

50

15 244 0
0 5
16 235
17 233
18 230
19 230
20 372
21 288
22 289
23 283
24 285

TENDENCIA LOGARIT
AÑO MENSUAL ENERGÍA (KWh) MOVIL SIMPLE MOVIL DOBLE PERIODO
1 259 1
2 251 2
3 293 3
4 144 4
5 209 5
6 241 6
2021
7 210 228.25 226.75 7
8 217 225.25 223.75 8
9 213 222.25 220.20833333333 9
10 219 218.166666666667 221.95833333333 10
11 232 225.75 226.75 11
12 251 227.75 227.29166666667 12
1 223 226.833333333333 227.66666666667 13
2 215 228.5 234.95833333333 14
3 244 241.416666666667 244.54166666667 15
4 235 247.666666666667 250.58333333333 16
5 233 253.5 255.625 17
6 230 257.75 259.16666666667 18
2022
7 230 260.583333333333 19
8 372 20
9 288 21
10 289 22
11 283 23
12 285 24

PERIODO (KWh)
1 259
400

350

300
 2 251 400
3 293
4 144 350

5 209 300
6 241 a 13.6830
7 210 b 213.18 250
f(x) = 13.6828484644885 ln(x)
8 217
200
9 213
10 219 150
11 232
100
12 251
13 223 50
14 215
15 244 0
0 5
16 235
17 233
18 230
19 230
20 372
21 288
22 289
23 283
24 285

TENDENCIA POLINO
AÑO MENSUAL ENERGÍA (KWh) MOVIL SIMPLE MOVIL DOBLE PERIODO
1 259 1
2 251 2
3 293 3
4 144 4
5 209 5
6 241 6
2021
7 210 228.25 226.75 7
8 217 225.25 223.75 8
9 213 222.25 220.20833333333 9
10 219 218.166666666667 221.95833333333 10
11 232 225.75 226.75 11
12 251 227.75 227.29166666667 12
1 223 226.833333333333 227.66666666667 13
2 215 228.5 234.95833333333 14
3 244 241.416666666667 244.54166666667 15
4 235 247.666666666667 250.58333333333 16

2022
 5 233 253.5 255.625 17
6 230 257.75 259.16666666667 18
2022
7 230 260.583333333333 19
8 372 20
9 288 21
10 289 22
11 283 23
12 285 24

PERIODO (KWh)
1 259
2 251 400
3 293
350
4 144
5 209 300 f(x) = 0.410124657950745 x² −
6 241 a 0.4101
7 210 b -7.4236 250
8 217 c 253.48
200
9 213
10 219 150
11 232
100
12 251
13 223 50
14 215
15 244 0
0 5
16 235
17 233
18 230
19 230
20 372
21 288
22 289
23 283
24 285

TENDENCIA POTEN
AÑO MENSUAL ENERGÍA (KWh) MOVIL SIMPLE MOVIL DOBLE PERIODO
1 259 1
2 251 2
3 293 3

2021
 4 144 4
5 209 5
6 241 6
2021
7 210 228.25 226.75 7
8 217 225.25 223.75 8
9 213 222.25 220.20833333333 9
10 219 218.166666666667 221.95833333333 10
11 232 225.75 226.75 11
12 251 227.75 227.29166666667 12
1 223 226.833333333333 227.66666666667 13
2 215 228.5 234.95833333333 14
3 244 241.416666666667 244.54166666667 15
4 235 247.666666666667 250.58333333333 16
5 233 253.5 255.625 17
6 230 257.75 259.16666666667 18
2022
7 230 260.583333333333 19
8 372 20
9 288 21
10 289 22
11 283 23
12 285 24

PERIODO (KWh)
1 259
2 251 400
3 293
4 144 350

5 209 300
6 241 a 211.2900
7 210 b 0.0573 250
f(x) = 211.290318054143 x^0.
8 217
200
9 213
10 219 150
11 232
100
12 251
13 223 50
14 215
15 244 0
0 5
16 235
17 233
18 230
19 230
20 372
21 288
22 289
23 283
24 285
ENCIA EXPONENCIAL
TENDENCIA m*e^(b*t) ESTACIONALIDAD ESTACIONALIDAD CORREGIDA
210.61989292653 0 101.27%
213.098617939103 0 94.61%
215.606514354256 0 103.16%
218.143925481846 0 96.96%
220.711198672044 0 94.24%
223.308685362887 0 91.76%
225.936741128383 92.61301% 95.75%
228.59572572719 96.98324% 100.27%
231.286003151863 96.72658% 100.01%
234.007941678679 98.66717% 102.01%
236.761913918053 102.31533% 105.78%
239.548296865546 110.43080% 114.18%
242.367471953471 97.95022% 101.27%
245.219825103108 91.50559% 94.61%
248.105746777533 99.77850% 103.16%
251.025632035072 93.78118% 96.96%
253.979880583376 91.14914% 94.24%
256.968896834144 88.74598% 91.76%
259.993089958476 95.75%
263.052873942893 100.27%
266.148667646002 100.01%
269.280894855837 102.01%
272.449984347873 105.78%
275.656369943719 114.18%

(KWh)
400

350

300

250 f(x) = 208.169375669544 exp( 0.0116549519661037 x )

200

150

100

50

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
 100

50

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30

ENCIA LOGARITMICO
TENDENCIA a*ln(t) + b ESTACIONALIDAD ESTACIONALIDAD CORREGIDA
213.18 0 101.27%
222.664332871602 0 94.61%
228.212311945846 0 103.16%
232.148665743203 0 96.96%
235.201938955836 0 94.24%
237.696644817447 0 91.76%
239.805888569524 92.61301% 95.75%
241.632998614805 96.98324% 100.27%
243.244623891692 96.72658% 100.01%
244.686271827438 98.66717% 102.01%
245.9904010177 102.31533% 105.78%
247.180977689049 110.43080% 114.18%
248.276202058146 97.95022% 101.27%
249.290221441126 91.50559% 94.61%
250.234250901682 99.77850% 103.16%
251.117331486407 93.78118% 96.96%
251.946858186721 91.14914% 94.24%
252.728956763293 88.74598% 91.76%
253.468758551934 95.75%
254.170604699039 100.27%
254.83820051537 100.01%
255.474733889302 102.01%
256.082967356559 105.78%
256.665310560651 114.18%

(KWh)
400

350

300
 (KWh)
400

350

300

250
f(x) = 13.6828484644885 ln(x) + 213.182868728234

200

150

100

50

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30

DENCIA POLINOMICA
TENDENCIA a*t^2 + b*t + c ESTACIONALIDAD ESTACIONALIDAD CORREGIDA
246.4665 0 101.27%
240.2732 0 94.61%
234.9001 0 103.16%
230.3472 0 96.96%
226.6145 0 94.24%
223.702 0 91.76%
221.6097 92.61301% 95.75%
220.3376 96.98324% 100.27%
219.8857 96.72658% 100.01%
220.254 98.66717% 102.01%
221.4425 102.31533% 105.78%
223.4512 110.43080% 114.18%
226.2801 97.95022% 101.27%
229.9292 91.50559% 94.61%
234.3985 99.77850% 103.16%
239.688 93.78118% 96.96%
 245.7977 91.14914% 94.24%
252.7276 88.74598% 91.76%
260.4777 95.75%
269.048 100.27%
278.4385 100.01%
288.6492 102.01%
299.6801 105.78%
311.5312 114.18%

(KWh)
400

350

300 f(x) = 0.410124657950745 x² − 7.42355123137733 x + 253.477272727273

250

200

150

100

50

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30

DENCIA POTENCIAL
TENDENCIA a*t^(b) ESTACIONALIDAD ESTACIONALIDAD CORREGIDA
211.29 0 101.27%
219.850755239843 0 94.61%
225.018378606947 0 103.16%
 228.758363289931 0 96.96%
231.702075663527 0 94.24%
234.135361255063 0 91.76%
236.212600473042 92.61301% 95.75%
238.026877451473 96.98324% 100.27%
239.638746324479 96.72658% 100.01%
241.089859081195 98.66717% 102.01%
242.410118559641 102.31533% 105.78%
243.621733164272 110.43080% 114.18%
244.741657641981 97.95022% 101.27%
245.783135080532 91.50559% 94.61%
246.756710614184 99.77850% 103.16%
247.670920417852 93.78118% 96.96%
248.532773472015 91.14914% 94.24%
249.348096758796 88.74598% 91.76%
250.12178792232 95.75%
250.858003690038 100.27%
251.560302735455 100.01%
252.231755611325 102.01%
252.875030474034 105.78%
253.492460736452 114.18%

(KWh)
400

350

300

250
f(x) = 211.290318054143 x^0.0573032022886345
200

150

100

50

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
 IND
PRONOSTICO AÑO/MENSUAL 1 2 3
213.297613172415 2021 0 0 0
201.608776509501 2022 0.9795022 0.91505586 0.99778497
222.423172520668 SUMA 0.9795022 0.91505586 0.99778497
211.514428453578 PROMEDIO 0.9795022 0.91505586 0.99778497
207.997521054514
204.896953804583
216.341607925896
229.216559472923
231.300407867877 IND
238.717605909791 AÑO/MENSUAL 1 2 3
250.457317685366 2021 0 0 0
273.504508467238 2022 1.01271352 0.94608205 1.0316162
245.448815684 SUMA 1.01271352 0.94608205 1.0316162
231.998073910734 PROMEDIO 1.01271352 0.94608205 1.0316162
255.949907098802
243.396844399021
239.34981947862
235.781891323564
248.951643943902
263.76728844271
266.165243642485
274.700465617097
288.209751112276
314.730937158933

25 30
 25 30

IND
PRONOSTICO AÑO/MENSUAL 1 2 3
215.890268218667 2021 0 0 0
210.658727666532 2022 0.9795022 0.91505586 0.99778497
235.427517500096 SUMA 0.9795022 0.91505586 0.99778497
225.09355803731 PROMEDIO 0.9795022 0.91505586 0.99778497
221.653547914084
218.098630483269
229.621757241109
242.289239754684
243.259773402173 IND
249.610849061881 AÑO/MENSUAL 1 2 3
260.219623146673 2021 0 0 0
282.219129461146 2022 1.01271352 0.94608205 1.0316162
251.43266654773 SUMA 1.01271352 0.94608205 1.0316162
235.84900280719 PROMEDIO 1.01271352 0.94608205 1.0316162
258.145706429979
243.485757060677
237.433905735698
231.891532991019
242.704389335894
254.860896208508
254.854072085019
260.616440651559
270.895990185448
293.047876040142
30

IND
PRONOSTICO AÑO/MENSUAL 1 2 3
249.599956806061 2021 0 0 0
227.318160711233 2022 0.9795022 0.91505586 0.99778497
242.326747983024 SUMA 0.9795022 0.91505586 0.99778497
223.346839689729 PROMEDIO 0.9795022 0.91505586 0.99778497
213.560773166959
205.257839772364
212.19832856991
220.936005841135
219.899394694105 IND
224.686851202049 AÑO/MENSUAL 1 2 3
234.251758037139 2021 0 0 0
255.12563195854 2022 1.01271352 0.94608205 1.0316162
229.156916603559 SUMA 1.01271352 0.94608205 1.0316162
217.531888024986 PROMEDIO 1.01271352 0.94608205 1.0316162
241.809289298297
232.403768361638
 231.63895891331
231.890288092436
249.415673455334
269.778696416525
278.455841419131
294.458578958795
317.014982551884
355.691060396195

30

IND
PRONOSTICO AÑO/MENSUAL 1 2 3
213.976239665645 2021 0 0 0
207.996852383439 2022 0.9795022 0.91505586 0.99778497
232.132604133563 SUMA 0.9795022 0.91505586 0.99778497
 221.80628847844 PROMEDIO 0.9795022 0.91505586 0.99778497
218.355288046846
214.830973641435
226.181069725429
238.673324874945
239.653671257418 IND
245.942054599233 AÑO/MENSUAL 1 2 3
256.432240597839 2021 0 0 0
278.155358451285 2022 1.01271352 0.94608205 1.0316162
247.853185630024 SUMA 1.01271352 0.94608205 1.0316162
232.53101136684 PROMEDIO 1.01271352 0.94608205 1.0316162
254.558219541513
240.14408405387
234.216483323054
228.789423840918
239.499558620556
251.539298642437
251.575970154459
257.308193910092
267.502491401775
289.425271567629

30
 INDICE DE ESTACIONALIDAD SIN AJUSTE
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
0 0 0 0.9261301 0.9698324 0.96726585 0.98667167 1.02315325
0.93781177 0.91149144 0.88745981 0 0 0 0 0
0.93781177 0.91149144 0.88745981 0.9261301 0.9698324 0.96726585 0.98667167 1.02315325
0.93781177 0.91149144 0.88745981 0.9261301 0.9698324 0.96726585 0.98667167 1.02315325

FACTOR DE AJUSTE

INDICE DE ESTACIONALIDAD CON AJUSTE

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
0 0 0 0.95753177 1.00271586 1.00006228 1.02012609 1.05784462
0.96960953 0.94239677 0.91755031 0 0 0 0 0
0.96960953 0.94239677 0.91755031 0.95753177 1.00271586 1.00006228 1.02012609 1.05784462
0.96960953 0.94239677 0.91755031 0.95753177 1.00271586 1.00006228 1.02012609 1.05784462
 INDICE DE ESTACIONALIDAD SIN AJUSTE
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
0 0 0 0.9261301 0.9698324 0.96726585 0.98667167 1.02315325
0.93781177 0.91149144 0.88745981 0 0 0 0 0
0.93781177 0.91149144 0.88745981 0.9261301 0.9698324 0.96726585 0.98667167 1.02315325
0.93781177 0.91149144 0.88745981 0.9261301 0.9698324 0.96726585 0.98667167 1.02315325

FACTOR DE AJUSTE

INDICE DE ESTACIONALIDAD CON AJUSTE

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
0 0 0 0.95753177 1.00271586 1.00006228 1.02012609 1.05784462
0.96960953 0.94239677 0.91755031 0 0 0 0 0
0.96960953 0.94239677 0.91755031 0.95753177 1.00271586 1.00006228 1.02012609 1.05784462
0.96960953 0.94239677 0.91755031 0.95753177 1.00271586 1.00006228 1.02012609 1.05784462
 INDICE DE ESTACIONALIDAD SIN AJUSTE
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
0 0 0 0.9261301 0.9698324 0.96726585 0.98667167 1.02315325
0.93781177 0.91149144 0.88745981 0 0 0 0 0
0.93781177 0.91149144 0.88745981 0.9261301 0.9698324 0.96726585 0.98667167 1.02315325
0.93781177 0.91149144 0.88745981 0.9261301 0.9698324 0.96726585 0.98667167 1.02315325

FACTOR DE AJUSTE

INDICE DE ESTACIONALIDAD CON AJUSTE

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
0 0 0 0.95753177 1.00271586 1.00006228 1.02012609 1.05784462
0.96960953 0.94239677 0.91755031 0 0 0 0 0
0.96960953 0.94239677 0.91755031 0.95753177 1.00271586 1.00006228 1.02012609 1.05784462
0.96960953 0.94239677 0.91755031 0.95753177 1.00271586 1.00006228 1.02012609 1.05784462
 INDICE DE ESTACIONALIDAD SIN AJUSTE
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
0 0 0 0.9261301 0.9698324 0.96726585 0.98667167 1.02315325
0.93781177 0.91149144 0.88745981 0 0 0 0 0
0.93781177 0.91149144 0.88745981 0.9261301 0.9698324 0.96726585 0.98667167 1.02315325
0.93781177 0.91149144 0.88745981 0.9261301 0.9698324 0.96726585 0.98667167 1.02315325

FACTOR DE AJUSTE

INDICE DE ESTACIONALIDAD CON AJUSTE

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
0 0 0 0.95753177 1.00271586 1.00006228 1.02012609 1.05784462
0.96960953 0.94239677 0.91755031 0 0 0 0 0
0.96960953 0.94239677 0.91755031 0.95753177 1.00271586 1.00006228 1.02012609 1.05784462
0.96960953 0.94239677 0.91755031 0.95753177 1.00271586 1.00006228 1.02012609 1.05784462
 12 SUMA
1.10430797 5.97736125
0 5.62910605
1.10430797 11.6064673
1.10430797 11.6064673

FACTOR DE AJUSTE 1.03390633

12 SUMA
1.141751 6.18003163
0 5.81996837
1.141751 12
1.141751 12
 12 SUMA
1.10430797 5.97736125
0 5.62910605
1.10430797 11.6064673
1.10430797 11.6064673

FACTOR DE AJUSTE 1.03390633

12 SUMA
1.141751 6.18003163
0 5.81996837
1.141751 12
1.141751 12
 12 SUMA
1.10430797 5.97736125
0 5.62910605
1.10430797 11.6064673
1.10430797 11.6064673

FACTOR DE AJUSTE 1.03390633

12 SUMA
1.141751 6.18003163
0 5.81996837
1.141751 12
1.141751 12
 12 SUMA
1.10430797 5.97736125
0 5.62910605
1.10430797 11.6064673
 1.10430797 11.6064673

FACTOR DE AJUSTE 1.03390633

12 SUMA
1.141751 6.18003163
0 5.81996837
1.141751 12
1.141751 12
 METODO DE HOLT - PRONOSTICO DE LA DEM
MÉTODO SUAVIZACIÓN EXPONENCIAL CON AJUSTE DE TENDENC
PRONÓSTICO INCLUYE LA TENDENCIA (FITt)
"= PRONOÓSTICO SUAVIZACIÓN EXPONENCIAL (Ft)
"+ TENDENCIA SUAVIZACIÓN EXPONENCIAL (Tt)

Ft+p = At + Ttp
PERIODO MENSUAL DEMANDA kWh (Yt) At Tt Ft
1 259 259 0
2 251 255.7696468 -0.00323035 259
3 293 270.8011197 0.01180435 255.7664164
4 144 219.606607 -0.03940197 270.8129241
5 209 215.3002295 -0.04366894 219.5672051
6 241 225.6516108 -0.03327389 215.2565605
7 210 219.3117438 -0.03958049 225.6183369
8 217 218.3546771 -0.04049797 219.2721633
9 213 216.1683447 -0.04264381 218.3141791
10 219 217.286326 -0.04148318 216.1257009
11 232 223.202889 -0.03552513 217.2448429
12 251 234.4060196 -0.02428648 223.1673639
13 223 229.7858558 -0.02888236 234.3817331
14 215 223.7981939 -0.03484114 229.7569735
15 244 231.9347926 -0.0266697 223.7633528
16 235 233.1566048 -0.02542121 231.9081229
17 233 233.0782124 -0.02547419 233.1311836
18 230 231.8200604 -0.02670686 233.0527382
19 230 231.0692079 -0.02743101 231.7933535
20 372 287.9598829 0.029487097 231.0417768
21 288 287.9936623 0.02949139 287.98937
22 289 288.4175985 0.029885834 288.0231537
23 283 286.247822 0.027686172 288.4474844
24 285 285.7604655 0.027171129 286.2755082
25 285.7876366
26 285.8148077
27 285.8419788
28 285.86915
29 285.8963211
30
31 PRONOSTICO 285.9234922
285.9506634
32 285.9778345
33 286.0050056
34 286.0321768
35 286.0593479
36 286.086519

ELEGIR AL CRITERIO, COEFICIENTES

CUANDO NO HAY
INDICADORES AL
INICIO
ELEGIR AL CRITERIO,
CUANDO NO HAY
INDICADORES AL α 0.403794151 MAD
INICIO β 0.001 MAPE
OSTICO DE LA DEMANDA
IAL CON AJUSTE DE TENDENCIA
A TENDENCIA (FITt)
IÓN EXPONENCIAL (Ft)
ÓN EXPONENCIAL (Tt)

+ Ttp 400

|Yt - Ft| EPA

A1  Y1 350
8 3% At   Yt  (1   )( At 1  Ti 1 )
37.233583563 13% Tt   ( At  At 1 )  (1   )Ti 1 300
126.81292406 88%
Ft  p  At  Tt p
10.567205058 5%
25.743439482 11% 250
15.618336921 7% Donde:
2.2721633351 1% Yt  Demanda real del período t
200
5.3141790981 2%
2.8742991463 1%
At  Valor atenuado exponencialmente de Yt
14.755157143 6% Tt  Valor de la tendencia del período t 150
27.832636123 11%
Ft  p  Pronóstico de demanda del período t
11.381733077 5%
100
14.756973474 7% t  Períodos 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
20.236647241 8%
p  Períodos en el futuro
3.0918771406 1%
0.1311835509 0%   Coeficiente de atenuación de los datos
3.052738215 1%   Coeficiente de atenuación de la tendencia 300
1.7933535154 1%
140.95822315 38%
MAD  Desviación absoluta media
0.0106299808 0%
0.9768462671 0%
250
5.4474843766 2%
1.2755082185 0%

200

150
0 5 10

340
20.875527049
9%
340

290

240

190

140
0 5
 DEMANDA

DEMANDA
Linear (DEMANDA)

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Column E
Linear (Column E)

5 10 15 20 25 30 35
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
30 35 40
 METODO DE WINTERS - PRONOSTIC
MÉTODO SUAVIZACIÓN EXPONENCIAL CON AJ
PERIODO MENSUAL DEMANDA kWh (Yt) Lt Tt S
1 259 30.75
2 251 22.75
3 293 64.75
4 144 -84.25
5 209 -19.25
6 241 12.75
7 210 -18.25
8 217 -11.25
9 213 -15.25
10 219 -9.25
11 232 3.75
12 251 228.25 2.8295652173913 22.75
13 223 231.0690029454 2.8292703030842 19.102818629
14 215 233.88694424216 2.8289539804167 10.257328768
15 244 236.70026656553 2.8285175213562 47.512728979
16 235 239.55046955158 2.8291230117092 -60.33710127
17 233 242.38227747432 2.8291979784093 -16.2893069
18 230 245.20386947756 2.8289856082962 4.3627730458
19 230 248.03291415279 2.8289872575328 -18.18486597
20 372 250.89791312196 2.8299927579587 28.460673737
21 288 253.74137669332 2.830368883058 -0.395524837
22 289 256.58308273807 2.8306854334354 3.2516642808
23 283 259.41916394853 2.8308360915366 9.7000071283
24 285 262.25000004005 2.8308360915363 22.749999988
25 1
26 2
27 3
28 4
29 5
30 6
PRONOSTICO
31 7
32 8
33 9
34 10
35 11
36 12

Resumen
 Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación mú 0.4627811337336
Coeficiente de determinació 0.214166377739756 estacionalidad
R^2 ajustado 0.178446667637018
Error típico 39.1874447170508
Observaciones 24

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados F
Regresión 1 9207.4052173913 9207.4052173913 5.9957479253
Residuos 22 33784.428115942 1535.6558234519
Total 23 42991.833333333

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad

Intercepción 209.047101449275 16.511648868798 12.66058302901 1.410977E-11
PERIODO MENSUAL 2.8295652173913 1.1555747011588 2.4486216378343 2.28%
Pendiente de la regresion tendencia
- PRONOSTICO DE LA DEMANDA
XPONENCIAL CON AJUSTE DE TENDENCIA
PRONOSTICO ADITIVO E.ABS EPA
380

330

280

230

261.829565217391 38.8295652173913 17.4%

256.648273248487 41.648273248487 19.4%
301.46589822258 57.4658982225799 23.6%
180
155.278784086881 79.7212159131194 33.9%
223.129592563287 9.87040743671307 4.2%
257.961475452727 27.9614754527273 12.2%
229.782855085853 0.217144914147184 0.1% 130
0 5
239.611901410327 132.388098589673 35.6%
238.477905879916 49.5220941200842 17.2%
247.321745576376 41.6782544236239 14.4%
263.163768171502 19.8362318284983 7.0%
285.000000040061 4.00609110329242E-08 0.0%
284.183654760152
278.169000991385
318.25523729389
213.236243139234
260.114873592844
283.597789635077
263.880986714235
313.357362509235
287.332000026827
293.8100252362
303.089204175251
318.970033126469
41.5948882839255 15.4%
MAD MAPE
Valor crítico de F
0.0227756756515237

Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0%

174.804037553588 243.290165344963 174.8040376 243.2901653
0.433049966706886 5.22608046807572 0.433049967 5.226080468
 alfha 0.00027202 L1 228.25 Promedio del primer ciclo
beta 0.02792148 T1 2.82956522
gamma 0.30003814

380

330

280

230

180

130
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
 METODO DE WINTERS - PRONOSTICO D
MÉTODO SUAVIZACIÓN EXPONENCIAL CON AJUSTE
PERIODO MENSUAL DEMANDA kWh (Yt) Lt Tt S
1 259 30.75
2 251 22.75
3 293 64.75
4 144 -84.25
5 209 -19.25
6 241 12.75
7 210 -18.25
8 217 -11.25
9 213 -15.25
10 219 -9.25
11 232 3.75
12 251 228.25 2.829565217 22.75
13 223 230.855737684694 2.824059789 21.8136554579
14 215 233.455568226097 2.818544481 16.20045131498
15 244 236.041606933732 2.812825596 45.63268479222
16 235 238.612788779871 2.806881947 -58.6762915342
17 233 241.166147160359 2.800646094 -13.1843873176
18 230 243.74086567647 2.795089011 9.207637257375
19 230 246.276815993509 2.788715044 -12.4940958242
20 372 248.783398839776 2.781775511 -7.42593093146
21 288 251.294723930755 2.775123312 -10.330555288
22 289 253.784534152423 2.76810554 -6.13297540823
23 283 256.371553719214 2.763651415 2.956059066626
24 285 258.888597401554 2.757585668 16.25443222282
25 1
26 2
27 3
28 4
29 5
30 6
PRONOSTICO
31 7
32 8
33 9
34 10
35 11
36 12
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de 0.4627811337336
Coeficiente de 0.214166377739756 estacionalidad
R^2 ajustado 0.178446667637018
Error típico 39.1874447170508
Observaciones 24

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados F
Regresión 1 9207.4052173913 9207.405217 5.99574792527
Residuos 22 33784.428115942 1535.655823
Total 23 42991.8333333333

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad

Intercepción 209.047101449275 16.5116488687975 12.66058303 1.41097702E-11
PERIODO MEN 2.8295652173913 1.15557470115877 2.448621638 2.28%
Pendiente de la regresion tendencia
RONOSTICO DE LA DEMANDA alfha
beta
NENCIAL CON AJUSTE DE TENDENCIA gamma
PRONOSTICO MULTIPLICATIVO E.ABS EPA
380

330

280

230

261.829565217391 38.829565217 17.4%

256.429797474121 41.429797474 19.3%
301.024112706671 57.024112707 23.4%
180
154.604432529909 80.39556747 34.2%
222.169670727191 10.830329273 4.6%
256.716793254038 26.716793254 11.6%
228.285954687923 1.7140453121 0.7% 130
0 5 10
237.81553103748 134.18446896 36.1%
236.315174351008 51.684825649 17.9%
244.819847242909 44.180152757 15.3%
260.302639692239 22.697360308 8.0%
281.885205134161 3.1147948658 1.1%
283.45983852775
280.604220053124
312.794039198658
211.242648540508
259.492138425454
284.641748668689
265.697601255411
273.523351816436
273.376313128177
280.331478676257
292.178098819405
308.234057643889
42.733484437 15.8%
MAD MAPE
Valor crítico de F
0.0227756756515237

Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0%

174.804037553588 243.29016534 174.8040376 243.2901653
0.433049966706886 5.2260804681 0.433049967 5.226080468
 0.001 L1 228.25 Promedio del primer ciclo
0.02459674 T1 2.82956522
0.30003814

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40