FSS 204

PROBABILITY 2
Empirical Probability
Given a frequency distribution, the probability of an event being in a given class is
P(E) = Frequency for the class (f)
Total frequencies in the distribution (n)

Example
Hospital records indicated that maternity patients stayed in the hospital for the number of days shown in the
distribution
Number of days 3 4 5 6 7
Frequency 15 32 56 19 5

Find these probabilities

a. A patient stayed exactly 5 days = 56/127
15
b. A patient stayed less than 6 days = P(3) + P(4) + P(5) = /127 + 32/127 + 56/127 = 103/127
15
c. A patient at most 4 days = P(3) + P(4) = /127 + 32/127 = 42/127
56
d. A patient stayed at least 5 days = P(5) + P(6) + P(7) = /127 + 19/127 + 5/127 = 80/127

Addition rules
Mutually exclusive events
Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at the same time- they have no outcomes in common
Addition rule 1: P(A or B) = P(A) + P (B)

Not mutually exclusive events

Two events are not mutually exclusive if they can occur at the same time- they have common outcomes
Addition rule 2: P(A or B) = P(A) + P (B) – P(Aor B)

Example1
Mutually exclusive events
In a large political gathering in Nigeria, one might wish to know if a person selected at random is a member of
APC or AD.
There are two possibilities
The person is APC member The person is AD member
Addition rule 1 applies: P(A or B) = P(A) + P (B)

Not mutually exclusive events

In a large political gathering in Nigeria, one might wish to know a the person selected at random is a female
and member of APC.
There are three possibilities
The person is a female The person is APC member The person is a female and APC member
Addition rule 2 applies: P(A or B) = P(A) + P (B) – P(Aor B)

Example 2.
Determine which events are mutually exclusive (ME) and which one are not (NME) from the following:
1. When a single die is rolled
a. Getting an odd number and getting an even number = ME
b. Getting a 3 and getting an odd number = NME
Example 3- Addition rule 1
1. At a political rally, there are 30 PDP members, 13 APC members and 6 LP members. Find the
probability of selecting either a APC or LP member
P(APC or LP) = P(APC) + P(LP)
13
/49 + 6/49 = 19/49

2. A day of the week is selected at random. Find the probability that it is a weekend day.
P(Saturday or Sunday) = P(Saturday) + P(Sunday)
1 + 1 =2
/7 /7 /7

Example 4- Addition rule 2

1. In a hospital unit, there are nurses and physicians as shown in the sample space below. Find the
probability that the selected person is a nurse or male.

Staff Female Male Total

Nurses 7 1 8
Physicians 3 2 5
Total 10 3 13

P(Male or Nurse)= P(Male) + P(Nurse) - P(Male nurse)

3
/13 + 8/13 -
1
/13 = 10
/13

Class Exercise
1. In a large department store, there are 2 managers. 4 department heads, 16 clerks, and 4 stock persons. If
a person is selected at random, find the probability that the person is either a clerk or a manager.

2. At a convention, there are 7 mathematics lecturers, 5 computer science lecturers, 3 statistics lecturers
and 4 science lecturers. If a lecturer is selected. Find the probability of getting a science or math
lecturers.

3. In a statistics class, there are18 juniors and 10 seniors; 6 of the seniors are females and 12 of the juniors
are males. If a student is selected at random, find the probability of selecting the following
a. A junior or a female
b. A senior or female
c. A junior or a senior
(Hints: Construct the frequency table first)

4. Three cable channels (Silverbird, AIT and Channels) have quiz shows, comedies and dramas. The
number of each is shown below

Type of show Silverbird AIT Channels

Quiz show 4 4 2
Comedy 3 2 8
Drama 5 2 1

If a show is selected at random, find these probabilities

a. The show is a quiz show or shown on AIT
b. The show is a drama or a comedy
c. The show is shown on Channels or it is a drama