4 National

January 3-9, 2022 l www.vir.com.vn

Spurring vibrant economic growth

Vietnam is approaching 2022 with great hope that its econ- very good at grasping them. The investment in Vietnam in the first
omy will strongly bounce back from negative impacts of the first comes from the export sector. eight months of 2020 was high-
Exports are mostly created by mul- er than that of the whole ASEAN
past two years. Jacques Morisset, World Bank lead economist tinational corporations and foreign member states and even that of the
and programme leader for Vietnam, talked with VIR’s Thanh direct investment, and around 80 African continent. That’s an exam-
Thu about the New Year’s prospects and expectations. per cent of exporters in Vietnam are ple that Vietnam boasts big poten-
foreign-invested enterprises. tial for green energy development.
You can see a big attraction Vietnam can do well in solar de-
Vietnam’s National Assembly (NA) targets in the context of the health from Vietnam for such enterprises, velopment and it can do the same
will soon gather to discuss a hall- crisis remaining quite complicated thanks to a combination of many for wind power. You can also do it
mark programme on economic and concerns over high inflation? factors: an attractive economy with for batteries and many other green
recovery and development for the I think the biggest risk for 2022 cheap labour, and people are work- products. This shows the vibrancy
next two years. How can this help will continue to be the pandemic. In ing a lot. Vietnam also offer attrac- of the private sector in Vietnam. I
Vietnam bounce back as an Asian the first quarter or even the second this is mostly imported inflation tive tax incentives, then helping the think this is a strength of the Viet-
tiger, as expected by many interna- quarter of 2021, no-one could have because commodities, particular- country to woo many enterprises namese economy as the vibrancy of
tional experts? forecast that the economy would ly oil prices, have gone up and and investors. its entrepreneurs is quite clear.
I believe that Vietnam can grow decline deeply in the third quarter. they have impacted on transport. I also believe that the pandemic
again as an Asian tiger, and it start- So I don’t know exactly what are These factors have been reflected has prompted us to diversify supply You said that foreign investment
ed to grow again at the end of 2021. going to happen not only in Viet- via Vietnam’s inflation rate, which chains and Vietnam is a good candi- and exports will continue acting as
I think the government can do more nam but also in the wider world. is the combination of imported in- date to diversify, and some big com- the key drivers for the Vietnamese
and the NA session to discuss this Recently we have been talking flation going up and at the same panies are coming to the country in economy in the coming time. Do
programme is a good signal. The about the Omicron variant and we time domestic prices not increas- order to diversify their own supply you see any other drivers for the
government is aware of the situa- don’t know what the implications ing due to demand being lower chains and ensure their exports to economy?
tion and ready to do more. will be yet, and there may be big- than supply. other nations from Vietnam. In the short term, the important
At the same time I believe that ger pandemic waves in the next But let’s assume that demand It can be said that Vietnam is sectors will still be exports and a
Vietnam had great potential before few years. This is the biggest risk increases as you want growth and now well taking advantage of this shift to a greener economy. In the
the pandemic occurred, and I would in my view. then at some point of time, there diversification trend. medium term, just like before the
argue that maybe the crisis can help In addition, even if the pandem- will be domestic inflation which In addition, I also believe that pandemic, domestic demand will
to accelerate some of the reforms ic is controlled, there also may be however will stay at a manageable Vietnam can take advantage of op- be important. When Vietnam be-
that Vietnam to realise to become a economic risks. Vietnam is an open level. But we need to wait as there portunities from the green economy come a richer nation, with a stron-
higher income nation by 2045. economy, and it certainly depends may be a combination between a and climate change economy. I know ger middle class, domestic demand
The country should further on what is happening in the rest of rise in prices of imported goods and that Vietnam is very much exposed to will increase.
boost the development of a digital the world. Exports have been driv- a rise in prices of domestic goods. climate change. In Hanoi you can see Pre-pandemic, the driving force
economy during the economic cri- ing Vietnam’s economic growth This will lead to high inflation, re- big pollution, while the Mekong Del- was the consumption power of the
sis, which would be a good signal over many years. You can see that quiring authorised agencies to take ta region is exposed to rising ocean middle class in combination with
for the future. In addition, we also the International Monetary Fund or greater caution of controlling infla- water. So Vietnam is a victim of cli- the development of big domestic
see some reforms and changes in the World Bank have reduced the tion as compared to the previous mate change, but the country also can companies. I believe that this will
the thinking about public invest- projections for growth in the US years. take advantage of this. continue play an important role in
ment management, the economy, and Europe. The less vibrant situa- For example, in 2020 the gov- spurring on the economy, with the
and the response to climate change. tion of the global economy will cer- What are some of the more positive ernment subsidised the prices of shift from foreign demand to do-
The commitments by the Prime tainly impact Vietnam as the coun- prospects for the Vietnamese econ- solar energy and decided to help mestic demand, as well as the de-
Minister Pham Minh Chinh at the try’s exports will grow less. omy in 2022? companies to invest into solar pow- velopment of the middle class. This
COP26 climate summit is an in- Another risk is that inflation There remain many opportuni- er, and the Vietnamese private sec- will be one of the key drivers of
dication that Vietnam is likely to could be an issue but right now ties for Vietnam and the nation is tor has been amazing. Total solar Vietnam’s economic growth.n
move faster in this important issue.

The recent NA session has set out

key targets for 2022, including a
goal of 6-6.5 per cent in economic
growth. Do you think this goal will
be achievable?
I think this target is feasible.
You can project that Vietnam is go-
ing back to the growth trajectory
of the time before the health crisis
appeared, but this assumes that the
world and Vietnam will not suffer
any more from a big crisis.
I hope that the government
will stimulate the economy by the
spending and tax policies. If this
condition is materialised, I believe
that there will be no reason why
Vietnam will not be able to grow
strongly again as it did previously,
and even grow higher because it
can catches time to resume the high
economic growth in the time before
the pandemic occurred.
So I am very optimistic about
the Vietnamese economic outlook,
of coursed based on the two condi-
tions of the government well con-
trolling the fiscal policy and the
economy not being closed again
due to the pandemic.

What will be the obstacles and

risks for Vietnam to reach these