DC Lawyers for Youth

May 2011

DCLY Issue Brief

Debunking Urban Legends: Data Shows Summer Heat, Vacation Have Not Led to More Youth Arrests

Introduction
This spring, like many in the past, policymakers have warned that youth crime will increase come summer. This forecast is based, in large part, on the belief that youth crime typically increases over the summer weeks when it is hot and youth are out of school.1 However, according to data provided by Metropolitan Police Department regarding the date of arrests for juveniles between 2007 and 2010,2 youth were actually arrested less frequently during summer when compared to the rest of the year. Moreover, a review of the data reveals that juvenile arrests are actually quite volatile and do not follow a distinct cycle or pattern. Thus, while arrests may rise or fall in the summer of 2011, the data shows this will be due to factors not associated with a change in season or youth being on vacation from school.

Key Trends
Over the last four years, total juvenile arrests and juvenile arrests for violent offenses have decreased during the summer months. Over the last four years, total juvenile arrests and juvenile arrests for violent offenses have decreased during the weeks when youth are on summer vacation. Monthly juvenile arrests and especially monthly juvenile arrests for violent offenses are volatile and do not follow any particular cyclical or seasonal pattern.

For the purposes of this brief, winter months are December, January, and February; spring months are March, April, and May; summer months are June, July, and August; and fall months are September, October, and November.
2

While the Metropolitan Police Departments Research & Analysis Bureau provided the underlying data, DC Lawyers for Youth independently analyzed the data and formulated the conclusions found in this issue brief.

DC Lawyers for Youth Issue Brief

May 2011

YOUTH ARRESTS HAVE DECREASED DURING THE SUMMER SEASON Over the course of the last four years, there has been no correlation between the arrival of summer and an increase in juvenile arrests. When weekly juvenile arrest averages are examined and compared on a seasonal basis, average weekly juvenile arrests actually decreased from spring to summer in each of the past four years. (Table 1). Furthermore, summer arrests were lower than the yearly weekly average in two of the four years studied (2008 and 2009) and never accounted for the highest average of any of the seasons in a given year. (Table 1). In fact, the only substantial seasonal spikes in juvenile arrests over the last four years occurred not during the summer months, but in the fall months of 2008 and 2009, and the spring months of 2007, 2009, and 2010. (Tables 1, 2).
Table 1. Seasonal Averages Show Juvenile Arrests Do Not Peak in the Summer Winter Weekly Avg. Spring Weekly Avg. Summer Weekly Avg. Fall Weekly Avg. Yearly Weekly Avg. 2007 60.77 70.54 66.08 65.15 65.63 2008 69.62 71.62 67.08 81.23 72.38 2009 68.23 77.08 75.46 92.46 78.31 2010 60.00 77.08 72.00 71.15 70.06

Juvenile arrests for violent offenses have seen similar decreases over the summer months. Like overall juvenile arrests, juvenile arrests for violent offenses decreased from spring to summer in each of the past four years. (Table 3). In addition, summer arrests also were lower than the yearly average in two of the four years studied (2007 and 2008) and never accounted for the highest average of any of the seasons in a given year. (Table 3). The only substantial seasonal spikes in juvenile arrests for violent arrests over the last four years occurred not during the summer months, but in the fall of 2008 and the springs of 2008, 2009, and 2010. (Tables 3, 4).

Table 3. Seasonal Averages Show Juvenile Arrests For Violent Offenses Do Not Peak in the Summer Winter Weekly Avg. Spring Weekly Avg. Summer Weekly Avg. Fall Weekly Avg. Yearly Weekly Avg. 2007 10.08 10.85 7.69 8.08 9.17 2008 6.92 9.62 7.62 11.54 8.92 2009 7.46 11.23 10.85 12.23 10.44 2010 8.54 12.00 11.08 10.23 10.46

Table 2. Monthly Arrests Show Juvenile Arrests Do Not Peak in Summer Months January February March April May June July August September October November December Total 2007 288 224 309 288 320 322 269 268 282 276 289 278 3413 2008 357 263 278 322 331 285 282 305 343 404 309 285 3764 2009 283 319 308 377 317 346 327 308 418 405 379 285 4072 2010 308 232 320 323 359 330 315 291 352 309 264 240 3643

Table 4. Monthly Arrests Show Juvenile Arrests for Violent Offenses Do Not Peak in Summer Months January February March April May June July August September October November December Total 2007 45 48 46 35 60 39 32 29 39 35 31 38 477 2008 36 30 35 43 47 33 34 32 39 64 47 24 464 2009 33 23 48 67 31 57 39 45 71 34 54 41 543 2010 47 31 45 50 61 46 48 50 53 47 33 33 544

DC Lawyers for Youth Issue Brief

May 2011

YOUTH ARRESTS HAVE BEEN LOWER DURING THE WEEKS OF SUMMER VACATION More importantly, and perhaps even more counter to the current conventional wisdom, juvenile arrests during the specific weeks of summer vacation have been lower than juvenile arrests during the rest of the year in each of the last four years, with the biggest differences between summer vacation arrests and academic year arrests coming in the last two summers. (Table 5). Indeed, during both the 2009 and 2010 summer vacations, weekly arrests of juveniles were over 8% lower than during academic year weeks.3
3

Juvenile arrests for violent offenses also have been lower during the weeks of summer vacation than during the weeks of the academic calendar. In each of the last four years, arrests of juveniles for violent offenses have been between 6% (2008) and 27% (2007) lower than during the academic year weeks. (Table 6). Thus, at least since 2007, DC has not experienced a spike in total arrests or violent offense arrests of juveniles during the summer months or during summer vacation.

For the purposes of this brief, the summer vacation weeks isolated and compared were: June 15, 2007 to August 27, 2007; June 12, 2008 to August 25, 2008; June 15, 2009 to August 24, 2009; and June 22, 2010 to August 23, 2010. These dates were taken from the D.C. Public School calendars from these prior years.

Table 5. Average Weekly Juvenile Arrests Has Been Lower During the Weeks of Summer Vacation for the Last Four Years

Academic Year Arrests Academic Year Weekly Avg. Summer Break Arrests Summer Break Weekly Avg.

2007 2760 65.71 653 65.30

2008 3052 72.67 712 71.20

2009 3346 79.67 726 72.60

2010 3057 71.09 586 65.11

Table 6. Average Weekly Juvenile Arrests for Violent Offenses Has Been Lower During the Weeks of Summer Vacation for the Last Four Years 2007 406 9.67 71 7.10 2008 379 9.02 85 8.50 2009 445 10.60 98 9.80 2010 458 10.65 86 9.56

Academic Year Arrests Academic Year Weekly Avg. Summer Break Arrests Summer Break Weekly Avg.

DC Lawyers for Youth Issue Brief

May 2011

YOUTH ARRESTS HAVE NOT FOLLOWED CYCLICAL OR SEASONAL PATTERN

The reality is that juvenile arrests, when examined on a monthly basis, are fairly volatile and do not rise or fall in any particular cyclical manner whether seasonal or otherwise. (Figure 1). Between 2007 and 2010, almost half (47%) of months showed an increase or decrease in juvenile arrests of at least 10% when compared to the previous month, and 15% of months demonstrated an increase or decrease in arrests of at least 25%. For example, arrests decreased by a fourth (24.7%) from January to February 2010, then rose 38.9% in March. A one-month spike in arrests, therefore, does not necessarily indicate a trend.

Juvenile arrests for violent offenses are even more volatile.4 (Figure 2, next page). Between 2007 and 2010, over three-quarters (77%) of months showed an increase or decrease in juvenile arrests of at least 10%, and almost half (45%) of months showed a positive or negative change of at least 25%.
4

The volatility of total arrests (i.e., adult and juvenile) for homicide, robbery, and burglary has been well documented and analyzed by the DC Crime Policy Institute. See Liberman & Cahill, The Volatility of Monthly Crime, DC Crime Policy Institute, March 2011 (available at http://www.dccrimepolicy.org/Briefs/images/Volatility-Brief3-10-11_1.pdf).

Figure 1. Juvenile Arrests Show Monthly Volatility

450 400 Monthly Total Juvenile Arrests, 2007-10 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December

DC Lawyers for Youth Issue Brief

May 2011

Figure 2. Juvenile Arrests for Violent Offenses Are Very Volatile Month to Month
Monthly Total Juvenile Arrests for Violent Offenses, 2007-2010 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December

So, if juvenile arrests have been trended down every summer for the past four years, how is it that the false perception that juvenile arrests rise during the summer has become so ingrained our public psyche? One answer may be that juvenile arrests for both overall offenses and violent offenses have spiked during a spring month in three of the last four years. This one-month spike prior to the summer, coupled with the fear that summer vacation would provide youth with more time and more opportunity to get into trouble, may have led the public and policymakers to incorrectly believe that the one month spikes in the spring signaled the start of a larger, seasonal trend.

Thus, while it intuitively makes sense that juvenile arrests would increase and peak every summer when the temperature rises and youth are out of school and a one month spike in arrests during the spring months may have reinforced this perception, the fact is that juvenile arrests have not ebbed and flowed according to any cycle or pattern and that juvenile arrests have not spiked or increased during the summer season or summer vacation.

DC Lawyers for Youth Issue Brief

May 2011

CONCLUSION The commonly told story that juvenile has arrests have increased in past summers (and so will increase again this summer) is wrong. Over the past four years, the summer has never accounted either for an increase in juvenile arrests (when compared to the spring) or the yearly peak in juvenile arrests. Moreover, average weekly juvenile arrests during the time when youth are on summer vacation have been lower than average weekly arrests during the academic year. Lastly, the volatility of monthly juvenile arrests demonstrates that juvenile crime does not occur on some predetermined yearly cycle, but fluctuates, sometimes wildly, on a monthly basis. That the spring season has seen increases in arrests in three of the past four years could be one reason that the media, policymakers and the general public begin to be concerned about the summer. Can we predict that this upcoming summer will not see an increase in juvenile crime? No. But is there any reason to believe, based on the MPD arrest data from the last four years, that it is likely to be one with higher levels of violence? No. As the brief demonstrates, it is pure urban legend that juvenile crime increases during the summer in the District of Columbia. Thus, while arrests may rise or fall in Summer 2011, data shows this will be due to factors not associated with a change in season or youth being on vacation from school.

ABOUT DC LAWYERS FOR YOUTH DC Lawyers for Youth (DCLY) seeks to improve the DC juvenile justice system by advocating for reforms that promote positive youth development, effective legal representation, and supportive relationships between the community and DCs youth. For more information, please visit www.dcly.org.