Social Forces, University of North Carolina Press

Is Prediction Feasible in Social Work? An Inquiry Based upon a Sociological Study of Parole
Records
Author(s): Ernest W. Burgess
Source: Social Forces, Vol. 7, No. 4 (Jun., 1929), pp. 533-545
Published by: University of North Carolina Press
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 IS PREDICTION FEASIBLE IN SOCIAL WORK 533
findings, except to state in a general way For these reasons I am sanguine of the
that some of the techniques proved to good returns which Miss Colcord and
be somewhat more reliable in these situa- many others may expect from further
tions than we had at first supposed, but investmnentsof time and thought in mak-
that the interview was quite unsuited to ing intimate, thorough, detailed studies
the securing of certain sorts of factual of the processes and techniques of inter-
information. The important point to viewing. She has broken good ground
be emphasized here is that we did succeed and harvested a fine first crop. She has
in getting some useful objective checks on already added to the knowledge of tech-
the adequacy and correctness of our inter- niques of the interview, in a way which
view results, and this made it possible will increase the effectiveness of social
to evaluate some of the factors which had work and improve the facilities available
entered into the interviews. foXruse in training social workers.

IS PREDICTION FEASIBLE IN SOCIAL WORK? AN

INQUIRY BASED UPON A SOCIOLOGICAL
STUDY OF PAROLE RECORDS
ERNEST W. BURGESS

pREDICTION is the aim of the social of religion are in the realm of intangible
sciences as it is of the physical
sciences. Likewise, one objective
of a profession like that of social work
is or should be to test and improve its
techniques, as is now the case in medicine,
by the careful disinterested and systematic
examination of its own experience.
Yet it is notorious that in social work
the attempts to make such studies of
experience and to analyze the factors
responsible for the success or failure of
persons or families under the care of an
agency have been few and far between.
The infancy of social work is undoubtedly
a prominent reason for this situation.
The public because of the human appeal
of welfare work has not demanded proof
of its efficacy. Many social agencies,
perhaps, have not been disposed to submit
their accomplishments to the acid test
of analysis. Many social workers sin-
cerely feel that their services like those
rather than material values and are not
to be subjected to the crude measurements
of statistical procedure.
These explanations are probably suffi-
cient to account for the existing lack of
data upon the past experiences of social
agencies. But sooner or later it is inevi-
table that social work in response to
inside demand or outside pressure will be
called upon to submit its methods and its
results to the same pragmatic test which
now prevails in its neighboring profes-
sional fields of medicine and engineering.
The two notable attempts in social work
to analyze the results of social treatment
have been made in the one case by a
physician and psychiatrist and in the
second case by men in social work and
sociology who were previously trained
as engineers. Dr. William Healy in his
book Criminals and Delinquents, their
Making and Unmakingdisplayed the truly
534 SOCIAL FORCES
scientific spirit by his discriminating results, a review of his work by Professor
and disinterested examination of the Hornell Hart indicated possibilities of
proportion of success and failure of indi- success in a new venture. The methods
viduals in those groups of cases in Chicago and findings of this study will be presented
and Boston which he had studied and in order to give a concrete illustration of
treated. M. J. Karpf and Erle F. Young the use of prediction in a field of interest
made two elaborate and exhaustive studies to social work.
of the relation between types of problems The study of the factors determining
and modes of treatment with reference to success or failure on parole covered the
the rapidity and relative degree of success complete criminal and penal record of
of the curative methods employed. Un- 1,OOO men paroled from the Illinois State
fortunately, from the standpoint of the Penitentiary at Joliet, of I,000 men
development of the technique of social paroled from the Southern Illinois Peni-
work, neither the study of behavior tentiary at Menard, and of I,OOO men
problems of delinquent boys nor the paroled from the Illinois State Reform-
study of social case work with families atory at Pontiac. The cases from each
has as yet been published. institution were all consecutive, be-
For several years it has been the con- ginning with December 3I, I924, and
viction of the writer that it would be going backward until I,OOO had been
possible to predict the future conduct of examined from each institution. There-
groups of persons on the basis of their fore each man had been released on parole
past behavior. One type of prediction from the institution at least two and
that seemed especially promising was the one-half years and in certain instances
preparation of an expectancy rate, tha't is, four, and even five years at the time the
a statistical statement of the probabilities inquiry was made.
of a certain type of behavior which would It seemed desirable at the start to
apply to a group of persons rather than to differentiate between the different types
any specific individual. An example in of offenders. There are those who have
the field of life insurance is the experiencecommitted only one or two offenses, or
table by which is calculated the number the first offender. There are those who
of years an individual of any age may on have engaged in several crimes during a
the average be expected to live. short period before their first apprehension
or have lapsed into delinquency only a
A STUDY IN PAROLE PREDICTION
few times over a long period, or the
The opportunity to make such an occasional offender. Then there are those
inquiry in the prediction of human men like the alcoholic, the gambler, the
behavior was afforded in connection with drug addict who, in spite of repeated
the study of "The Workings of the Inde- punishments, continue their criminal
terminate-Sentence Law and the Parole operations or get into difficulty with the
System in Illinois." The question of law, or the habitual criminal. Finally
correlation of observance or violation of there is the specialist in crime who makes
parole with facts about the paroled man of it a vocation and even a career and
as recorded in prison records seemed to depends upon it for a livelihood, the
offer a favorable situation for testing this professional criminal.
theory. Although Professor Sam Warner What proportion of the men placed on
had made a similar attempt with negative parole from Illinois penal and reformatory
 IS PREDICTION FEASIBLE IN SOCIAL WORK 535
institutions are first offenders, occasional tions only forty-six, all told, were defi-
offenders, habitual offenders, and pro- nitely termed professional criminals!
fessional offenders? The answer to this Table II on the criminal record of the
question has an important bearing upon prisoner previous to his present commit-
parole and its administration. ment may be used as a check upon the
classification by types of offenders.
TABLE I
This table indicates that over one-half
THREE THOUSAND PAROLED MEN IN THE ILLINOIS
STATE PENITENTIARY, FROM THE SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
(56.6 per cent) of the men in the penal
PENITENTIARY, AND FROM THE STATE REFORMATORY
and reformatory institutions of Illinois
CLASSIFIED BY TYPE OF OFFENDER have no previous criminal history, so
TYPE OF OFFENDER
far as shown by their records. - In addition
JOLIET MENARD PONrIAC
are those, or 24.I per cent, whose past
First offender....... .. 5o6 655 514 punishment record was merely that of
Occasional offender........ 3I7 274 347 industrial school, workhouse, fine or
Habitual offender .......... 145 70 II5 probation. Only I9.I per cent have
Professional offender ....... 2 4 I L I
Insufficientdata............ 8
recorded against them previous commit-
3
ments to penitentiaries and reformatories.
Total .................. I, 000 I,000 I,000 So far as the facts in this table may be
taken at their face value they corroborate
A study of Table I shows at once that the earlier finding that only a minority
over one-half the men in all three institu- of the men paroled from Illinois penal
tions are classified as first offenders and and reformatory institutions are habitual
that the next largest group is that of the and professional offenders and that the
occasional offender. At Joliet only one- great majority are first and occasional

TABLE II
THE PREVIOUS CRIMINAL RECORD oF THREE THOUSAND MEN PAROLED FROM THE ILLINOIS STATE PENETENTIARY,
FROM THE SOUTHERN ILLINOIS PENITENTIARY, AND FROM THE ILLINOIS STATE REFORMATORY

MEN ON PAROLE FROM

PREVIOUS CRIMINAL RECORD Alisiuin

Joilet- Menard- Pontiac- All institutions
number number number Number Per cent

No previous record................................... 490 666 54I I,697 56.6

Industrial school record only .......................... I8 X 6 I17 171 5.7
Record of fine or probation only ....................... .9 8 II7 I54 5.I
County or city jail record ............................. 2..021 43 I55 400 I3.3
State reformatoryrecord.............................. IOS 87 44 2.36 7.9
State penitentiary record .............................. I56 I70 II 337 II.2.
No data.. 0.2.

Total ........................................ I, 000 I, 000 I, 000 3,000 IOO.0

seventh of the men paroled are designated offenders and to that extent fit subjects
as habitual offenders and at Pontiac and for parole supervision looking towards
Menard only one out of every nine and rehabilitation.
fourteen is so assigned. Finally, out of The first and occasional offenders,
three thousand men in all three institu- totalling 87. I per cent of the men paroled,
 536
probably deserved an opportunity to make
good. The habitual and professional
criminals, totalling together only i2..5
per cent, were not such "good risks"
for rehabilitation. The question may
be asked why so small a number of habit-
ual and professional criminals are found
in the prison population. Is it because
of their relative freedom from apprehen-
sion and conviction? Do the majority of
professional criminals remain at large in
the general population, while first and
occasional offenders crowd the penal and
reformatory institutions to overflowing?
The next step in the study was to
determine the definition of success or of
TABLE III
PERCENTAGE OF MEN PAROLED FROM THE ILLINOIS
PENAL AND REFORMATORY INSTITUTIONS
WERE PAROLE VIOLATORS AND NON-VIOLATORS
INSTITUTION PER CENT PER CENT
VIOLATORSVIOLAOR
Pontiac. .. .I
Menard. .. 2.6.5
Joliet .2.8.4
All institutions . 25.7
failure upon parole. Success on parole
was taken as meaning the non-violation
of the parole agreement for the period
of a year or more before discharge from
parole.
Non-violation of parole is not exactly
the same as "making good" on parole.
By "making good" is implied the restora-
tion of the person as a law-abiding member
of society, gainfully employed in a legiti-
mate vocation. By non-violation of
parole is meant that the person has not
been apprehendedin the violation of any
parole regulation or any law. In other
words, he has observed at least the letter
of his parole obligations and has not been
apprehendedfor a new offense.
SOCIAL FORCES
Table III shows the percentage of men
from the three chief penal andreformatory
institutions of Illinois who had observed
and who had violated parole regulations.
These percentages of violation of parole
for this period are much higher than those
we are able to find in printed reports.
The distinction should be made between
major and minor violations of parole.
A man is declared a parole violator if he
commits a new offense. This may be
termed, then, a major violation. He
may be considered a parole violator if he
fails to make his monthly report, or makes
a trip out of the State without permission,
or disregards any of the rules for his
TABLE IV
COMPARISON BY INSTITUTIONS OF THE NUMBER OF MINOR
WHO AND MAJOR VIOLATIONS OP PAROLE
INDIVIDUAL ALL INSTI-
INSTITUTIONS TUTIONS
PAROLE AGREEMENT VIOLATED
-l 0
;:~ O i
77.9
73.5 On minor grounds ......... 83 II2. I33 32.8 IO.9
7I .6 On major grounds ......... 138 172. 132. 442. 4.7
74.3 Total . ............... 2i 2.84 2.65 7702.5.6
conduct prescribedin the parole agreement.
Such violations as these, as well as any
reason which under the previous adminis-
tration led to a continuance of parole at
the end of twelve months, may be defined
as a minor or technical violation.
Statistics from Pontiac, Joliet, and
Menard indicate that there are nearly
as many parole agreements violated on
minor and technical as on major grounds.
It is evident that technical violations
are not as serious as committing new
offenses. Yet slight infractions of the
parole agreement must be given attention
if graver consequencesare to be prevented.
Indeed, increasing efficiency of parole
supervision is likely to be accompanied
 IS PREDICTION FEASIBLE IN SOCIAL WORK
by an increase in technical but a decrease
in major violations of parole. The public
should be preparedfor a sharp rise in the
percentage of parole violators under the
recent plan of increasing the period of
supervision from one to five years. Tech-
nical violations might well be expected to
increase five-fold but the final result
should be a decrease in the actual number
of crimes by paroled men.
FACTORS MAKING FOR SUCCESS AND FAILURE
ON PAROLE
It was now possible to examine the
3,000 cases from the three state institutions
to find out what factors were correlated
with success or failure upon parole.
The observation or violation of parole
was comparedwith the following twenty-
one points as entered in the materials in
the records: (i) nature of offense; (z)
number of associates in committing offense
for which convicted; (3) nationality of the
inmate's father; (4) parental status, in-
cluding broken homes; (5) marital status
of the inmate; (6) type of criminal, as
first offender, occasional offender,
habitual offender, professional criminal;
(7) social type, as ne'er-do-well, gangster,
hobo; (8) county from which committed;
(g) size of community; (io) type of
neighborhood; (ii) resident or transient
in comnmnunity when arrested; (iL) state-
ment of trial judge and prosecuting
attorney with reference to recommenda-
tion for or against leniency; (I3) nature
and length of sentence imposed; (I4)
months of sentence actually served before
parole; (i5) previous criminal record of
the prisoner; (i6) his previous work
record; (I7) his punishment record in
the institution; (i8) his age at time of
parole; (i9) his mental age according to
psychiatric examination; (2.o)
sonality type according to psychiatric
examination; and (2i) psychiatric
prognosis.
SOCIAL FORCES, VOL. VII, NO. 4
537
Offense named in the indictment. The
general public is inclined to the belief
that certain offenses are indicative of
more vicious tendencies in the criminal
and would, by their very nature, forecast
failure upon parole. Murder and certain
sex offenses, for example, arouse the most
intense feelings of abhorrence and are
charged with the most severe penalities.
The tabulation of offenses in relation to
record on parole give the astonishing
results shown in Table V.
At all these institutions men convicted
of sex offenses, murder, and manslaughter
show a relatively low rate for violation of
TABLE V
PAROLE VIOLATIONS IN RELATION TO GENERAL
TYPE OF OFFENSE
VIOLATION RATE BY
INSTITUTIONS
GENERAL TYPE OF OFFENSES
Pontiac Joliet Menard
percent purcunt pur cent
All offenses. ........... mm i 2.8.4 2.6.5
Larceny...........2.32. 2.9. 32.4.7
Robbery........... . I. 6 29.7 2.0.5
Burglary........... 2.6.3 36.2. 33 .0
Fraudand forgery........... 4.2 42-.4 38.3
Sex offenses.................. II.i I8.3 I4.8
Murder and manslaughter..... 2.7.3 9.0 15.6
All other offenses. ............0.o. o II.1I 7.4
parole while those convicted of fraud,
forgery, and (except for Pontiac) burglary
have disproportionately high rates for
violation. This seems to indicate either
that some groups of offenders are given
unusually careful parole supervision or
else that they are more susceptible to
reformation than those prone to other
forms of delinquency.
Numberof associates in crimeresulting in
conviction. In a large proportion of cases
the crime for which the man was convicted
his per- was not committed by one man but by
two or more men. In Pontiac, out of one
thousand cases, the delinquent has no
comrade in his crime in 368 cases, one
538 SOCIAL FORCES

comrade in 375 cases, two comrades in I69
cases, three comrades in 63 cases, four
comrades in I3 cases, and five or more
comrades in iS cases. In Menard out of
one thousand cases, the offender had no
associate in his crime in 659 cases, one
associate in i8i cases, two associates in
II7 cases, three associates in z5 cases,
four associates in I3 cases, and five or more
associates in 5 cases. In Joliet out of one
thousand cases, the convict had no
confederate in 558 cases, one confederate
in 226 cases, two confederates in i2o cases,
three confederates in 43 cases,. four con-
federates in zz cases, and 5 or more
confederates in 3I cases.
that 632. out of i,ooo cases involved one
or more persons, indicating the role of the
groups, or gang, in the delinquency of
youth. These facts indicate the impor-
tance of the study of the criminal not
only as an individual but also in his gang
and other group relationships.
Type of offender. The four main types
of criminals have already been differen-
tiated. This violation rate is much lower
TABLE VII
TYPB OF CRIMINAL IN RELATION TO PAROLE
VIOLATION
VIOLATION RATE BY
INSTITUTION
TYPE OF CRIM3INAL

Pontiac Menard Joliet

TABLE VI
per cEnt percEnt pfr cent
ASSOCIATES IN CRIME IN RELATION TO PAROLE
All criminals ................. .. i .
6.5 2.8.4
VIOLATION
Firstoffender................ I5.8 2. .4 I7.0
PONTIAC MENARD JOLIET Occasional offender . .......... 4-2. 32..5 36.o
Habitual offender............. 39. I 5I .4 48.9
NUMBEROF ASSOCIATES
Professional criminal ........ 52.. 5.4 4I .7

z z z
TABLE VIII
None ............... 368 3I.3 6592.8.I 55832.3
PERCENTAGE OF MINOR AND MAJOR VIOLATORS
One ............... 375 I8.7 I8I 2.7.6 S262.5.2.
OF PAROLE FROM JOLIET
Two ............... I69 I5.4 II7 22.2. i2.625.8
Three............... 63 I4.3 2.5 8.O 43 SO.9 PER CENT OF VIOLATORS
Four............... 13 7.7 I3 I5.0 2.2.I 8.4 TYPE OF CRIMAL
Five or more...........1i2..0? 5. ? . 3I 6.5 Minor Major Total

All offenders..................i.2. 17.2. 2.8.4

The most significant finding from a First offenders................ 9 3 6.7 I7.0
a consideration of the relation of parole Occasional offenders.......... I4.5 I .5 36.o

violation to number of associates was the Habitual offenders............ II .? 37.9 48.9

Professional criminals ......... 4.2. 37.5 4I.7
high violation rate (except for Menard)
where the offender had no associate, and
the surprisingly low violation rate for for the first and occasional offender than
all three institutions when the convict for the habitual and professional criminal,
had three or more associates. For ex- and considerably below that of the occa-
ample, where the delinquent had four or sional offender.
more associates the violation rate is only The run of the figures clinches the point
4.0 per cent of Pontiac, ii.i per cent for that the first offender is a "better risk"
Monard, and I3 .2 per cent for Joliet, as than the occasional offender, and the
comparedwith 3I.3 per cent for Pontiac, occasional offender is a "better risk" than
28.i per cent for Menard and 3Z.3 per cither the habitual or professionalcriminal.
cent for Joliet when the offender is a Moreover the larger half of the first and
"lone wolf." The Pontiac figures show occasional offenders are technical and
 IS PREDICTION FEASIBLE IN SOCIAL WORK
minor violators of parole, while the great
majority of violations among habitual
and professional criminals are the result
of detection in new crimes. Table VIII,
parole violators from Joliet, will illustrate
this significant point.
It is evident from Table VIII that the
proportion of serious violation of parole
is five times as great among habitual
and professional criminals as among first
offenders, while the percentage of minor
violations among professional criminals
is less than half that of the first offenders.
In other words, the professional criminal
tends to obey the technicalities of parole
TABLE IX
SOCIAL TYPE IN RELATION TO PAROLE VIOLATION
VIOLATIONRATEBY
INSTITUTIONS
SOCIAL
TYPE
Pontiac Menard
p ercnt percent percu#nt
All persons......... . . I z-6.5 L8.4
Hobo ....................... I4 3 46.8 70.5
Ne'er-do-well........ 32-.8 L-5.6 63.0
Mean citizen . . 30.0 95
Drunkard........... 37 5 38.9 2.2..7
Gangster...........2.2.7 2.3.2-
Recent immigrant........... 36.8 i6.7
Farm boy ............ . .. Io I.i .
Drug addict........... 4.3 66.7
agreement much better than the first
offender, but he is five times as liable to
continue in the criminal career.
The criminal as a social type. The attempt
was made to determine the social type into
which each person would fall as gangster,
farm boy, recently arrived immigrant,
drunkard. This was not a classification
appearing on the records, but was derived
from the history of the man and his offense
as contained in the record. This method
of differentiating social types gave some
highly significant comparisons.
When criminals are classified by social
type, wide differencesin the rate of parole
violation occur. The farm boy and the
newly arrived immigrant both seem
disposed to make satisfactory adjustments
under parole. But the hobo, the ne'er-
do-well from the city (Joliet statistics),
and the older drug addict, all are liable to
become parole violators. The gangster,
interestingly enough, has a parole viola-
tion rate a little under that of the average.
This fact suggests that special effort
directed toward persons of this type might
not be so unavailing as is popularly
believed.
Place of residence. Of the I,OOO youths
in Pontiac, 430 were temporary or perma-
nent residents of Cook County and 570 of
the remaining counties of Illinois at the
time of their commitment. At Menard
inmates had been committed for the most
part from the southern part of the State.
Joliect Of the I,ooo Joliet cases, 609 had been
sentenced in Cook County and the re-
mainder in general from the other northern
counties. In classifying the 3,000 paroled
men by the size of the community in which
they had lived before commitment to the
2X4.I institution, no significant variation from
4.0 the average in percentage of violation was
I6.7 discovered except a uniformly low rate
83.3
for those whose homes had been in the
open country. For those with homes in
the farmonly i2..5 per cent from Pontiac,
I4.6 per cent from Menard, and 9.3 per cent
from Joliet became parole defaulters.
About one-fourthof the I,OOO menfrom
each institution (2.2 from Pontiac, 2.72
from Menard, and 2.53 from Joliet) were
transients in the community in which the
crime resulting in their conviction took
place. The parole defaulter rate was
smaller than the average for actual resi-
dents of the community, being I4.I per
cent for Pontiac, I9.0 per cent for Menard,
and 2.3.7 per cent for Joliet, but much
larger for transients convicted of crime,
or 2.4.3 per cent for Pontiac, 46.o per
540 SOCIAL FORCES

cent for Menard, and 4I. I per cent for of identification. Out of the i,ooo men
Joliet. at each institution, there was no report of
The material in the records was not so a past criminal history in 54I cases at
satisfactory for determining the type of Pontiac, 666 cases at Menard, and 490
neighborhood where the man lived at the cases at Joliet.
time of his arrest. It did seem important It should be stated here that each
to find out, however, whether an inmate individual was classified in our tabulation
of a prison whose last place of residence under his most serious previous offense,
was a residential neighborhood would be so that while a man with a penitentiary
a "better risk" under parole supervision recordmight also have an industrial school
than one whose last dwelling place in and a reformatory record he would not be
civil life had been in the criminal under- classified there but only under "peniten-
world or along the "Main Stem" of tiary record." At both Menard and
Hobohemia. Joliet a previous reformatory and peniten-
TABLE X
TABLE XI
TYPE OF NEIGHBORHOOD Ix RELATION TO PERCENT-
PREVIOUS CRIMINAL RECORD IN RELATION TO PAROLB
AGES OF PAROLE VIOLATORS
VIOLATION
VIOLATION RATE BY
TYPE OF NEIGHBORHOOD IN WHICH INSTITUTION VIOLATIONRATEBY
PRISONERS RESIDE INSTITUTIONS
PREVIOUSRECORD
Pontiac Menard Joliet
Pontiac Menard Joliet
pur cent pir cint per cmnt
percuNt pir cOW per cint
All neighborhoods . .......... 2w . i 26.5 2.8.4
All persons..................2.21. I 2.6.5 2.8.4
Criminal underworld. ....... 42.3
... 45.5 38. I
No criminal record........... I6.3 2.1.2. I5.9
Hobohemia ...................21.4 48.4 52.9
Industrialschoolrecord,only.. . 37.0 46.2. 217.8
Rooming house district........ 45.8 34.6 38.7
Fine or probation, only ........ I6.21. I1.5 24. I
Furnished apartments. .........8.6 2.0.0
Workhouse or jail record,only 3I .0 2.56 46.5
Immigrant areas. ...............0 2.6. I 5 .9
Residential district ........ ... I7.8 Reformatory record........... 34. I 37.9 39.0
I4.2.2X2*.3
Penitentiary record........... 39.4 37.8

It is apparent from this table that the

neighborhood of last residence previous tiary record show high rates of parole
to commitment is an important index on violation, while the lack of a criminal
whether or not a man will make good or record exhibits a lower violation rate.
fail when put on parole. The experiences The records were not complete and
that are associated with life in Hobohemia accurate enough to permit any detailed
and the criminal underworld do not, it analysis, but in most cases they contained
seems, fit a man to take his place as a sufficient information to allow the classifi-
law-abiding member of organized society. cation into "no work record," "casual
Previouscriminal recordand parole violation. work," "irregular work," and "regular
Facts upon the man's previous criminal work." Under casual work was entered
history were derived from the statement the intermittent labor of unskilled workers.
of the trial judge and the state's attorney, In the majority of cases irregular work is
from information furnished by the prisoner that of skilled workers who were not
to the recorder and the psychiatrist at the steadily employed. Regular work record
institution, and from reports furnished referred to those who were reported to
the recorderfrom local and federal bureaus have a history of steady employment.
 IS PREDICTION FEASIBLE IN SOCIAL WORK 54I

The very low percentages of parole
violation for men with a record of regular
employment is eloquent in its testimony
to regular habits of work as a factor in
rehabilitation.
Punishmentrecordin prison. Although
the work record before and during im-
prisonment has not had much weight in
determining fitness for parole, the punish-
ment record in the institution has always
received great attention. The relation
of the punishment record in prison to
reaction to the conditions of parole is,
therefore, a subject of vital interest to all
concerned with the theory and practice
of penology.
tions in parole violation that seem to be
more or less independent of the type of
offense or offender.
More significant, perhaps, than the
sentence imposed is the sentence served.
Since all the men included in this study of
3,000 cases had been released on parole,
it was possible to compare the actual time
served in prison or reformatory with the
percentage violating the parole agreement.
In general, the finding to be derived from
Table XIV is that the longer the period
served the higher the violation rate. A
TABLE XIII
PUNISHMENT RECORD IN RELATION TO PAROLE
VIOLATORS

TABLE XII VIOLATION RATE BY

INSTITUTION
WORK RECORD IN RELATION TO PAROLE VIOLATION PUNISHMENT RECORD

Pontiac Mcnard Joliet

VIOLATION RATE BY
INSTITUTIONS parcfnt per cant pfr cent
PREVIOUS WORE RECORD

Pontiac M:nard Jolict All inmates. .................... i.6I . 2.8.4

No punishment recorded. o... I7. . . 2 . I8.6
per cent per cent per cent
Demerit ..................... 30.4
All persons........... .....4. I i 6 S .8.4 Solitary confinement. 4I1.9 52..4
No previous work record.....2.8.0 2.5.0 44.4 One or two demotions. ......2.7*2. 34.3 35.9
Record of casual work . .........5 3I .4 30.3 More than two demotions (or
Record of irregular work ..... I.8
. 2.I .3 2.4.3 in Pontiac and Joliet to
Record of regular work . ...... 8. 8 5.2. IS. 2. Grade E) ................. 33'I 33.3 47'I

* Only two cases, insufficient for calculation of

At both penitentiaries the inmates who
were punished by solitary confinement
had an unusually high violation rate,
particularly in comparison with the low
violation rates of those without recorded
punishments. The figures do not, of
course, give a final answer to the question
whether the violation of parole is a
manifestation of the same antagonistic
attitude toward rules and regulations as
against prison discipline, or whether the
recipient of severe punishment within the
institution, embittered, is thereby ani-
mated with a deeper enmity against
society.
Timeservedin prison. The length of time
served in prison shows significant varia-
percentage.
larger proportion of habitual and profes-
sional criminals serve longer terms than
do first and occasional offenders, according
to a special analysis of figures giving this
comparison which was made for those
released from Joliet. Nevertheless, it
would seem to be good policy for the
Parole Board in fixing the length of
sentence for the first and occasional
offender to keep in mind the relation of
the duration of the sentence to making
good on parole.
Agewhenparoled. The prison population
as a bo-dyis a group of young men. Even
when paroled the average age of our i,ooo
54Z SOCIAL FORCES
Joliet men was only 34.7 years, of our ment by the mental health officer of the
i,ooo Menard men only 33.9 years, and of probabilities of success or failure of the
our i,ooo Pontiacyouths only zi.6 years. inmate upon a return to the community
The ages ranged, however, at time of is entered in the material that comes to
parole from I7 tO 32. years at Pontiac, the Parole Board for consideration. From
from 19 to 86 years at Menard, and from these records it was possible to correlate
I7 to 8i years atJoliet. It was desirable, the findings on general intelligence,
therefore, to arrange the men in age personality type, and the psychiatric
groups in order to determine the relation prognosis with the rate of violation of
of age to parole violation. parole.
The youngest and the oldest have the It was through the work of Dr. Herman
lowest violation rates according to this M. Adler, State Criminologist, in an
analysis. This finding bears out the examination of the population of Illinois
double contention first, that the youth penal and reformatory institutions, that
who has impulsively embarked on a the first conclusive demonstration was

TABLE XIV TABLE XV

THEI RELATION BETWEEN TIME SERVED IN PRISON TO AGE AT PAROLE IN. RELATION TO PAROLE VIOLATION
PAROLE VIOLATION
VIOLATION RATE BY
INSTITUTIONS
VIOLATION RATE BY AGE WHEN PAROLED
.INSTITUTION
NUMBER OF YEARS SERVED Pontiac Mcnard Joliet

Pontiac Menard Joliet per ctt pircont ptr cenl-

Per aont per ant per cent All ages .................... i 2.6.5 2.8.4
All periodsof yearsserved... 2.. I ,6.5 2.8.4 Under2.I years....1... .. I7.7 .5.0 I6.7
UnderI year. ................ IQ.7 2.1.3 14.5 2.I to 14years ................ 23 .I 13 3 2.3.3
2.5 to 2.9 years . ................ * 30.7 2.8.9
I year but under 2. years. . 2..o 23.2. 2.o.8 3
2. years but under 3 years . ..... .Yo.I 2.7.9 2.5 .2 30 tO 39 years . . 2.8.4 33 2.
3 years but under 4 years . ...... 37.9 40 tO 49 years ........ ....... I 223-.
.3. 2
3X. I 2.9.4
4 years but under 5 years ...... 43.5 . 37-5 37.6 so years and over . . 2.3 I 2..o

5 years but under 8 years.... 46.2 .43 .0 37.3 * The 154 cases on which this per cent figure is
8 years and over ..........2.50.... 2 39.5
based contains two cases 30 years of age and over.

career of crime is more amenable to super-
vision than the more experienced criminal
of twenty-five and thirty years, and
second, that the older man of forty and
over is beginning at last to learn the
lesson "that crime does not pay."
Intelligence and personality as factors.
Illinois enjoys the honor of having been
the first state in the Union to establish
the position of state criminologist.
Under his direction the mental health
officerat Pontiac, Menard, andJoliet gives
the mental and psychiatric examination
of the inmates. A diagnostic summary of
this examination together with a state-
made that the proportion of those of
inferior intelligence in the criminal and
delinquent group is no larger than in the
general population. So, while inferior
mentality can no longer be given as one
of the major causes of crime, it is of
interest to determine how men of different
intelligence levels react to supervision
upon parole.
The most significant finding from this
analysis is, probably, the indication that
those of inferior intelligence are as likely,
perhaps more likely, to observe their
parole agreement than are those of average
and superior intelligence. In a study,
 IS PREDICTION FEASIBLE IN SOCIAL WORK 543
Comparisonof the Parole Cases, Parole in social readjustment. Curiously enough
Violatorsand PrisonPopelationof the Illinois the emotionally unstable seem to have the
StatePenitentiary duringthe Year192I, Dr. least difficulty of keeping a clean record
David P. Phillips, mental health officer, under supervision.
called attention to the fact that although From the results of these exatninations
those of inferior intelligence constitute and from other data, the psychiatrist
z8.6 per cent of the prison population of makes a prognosis as to whether or not
Joliet, they comprise only i5.6 per cent in his judgment a man is likely to succeed
of those paroled and likewise only I5.5 or to fail upon his return to civil society.
per cent of the parole violators. Since His recommendation wherever feasible
these two independent studies give the TABLE XVII
same result, namely, that parole violation PSYCHIATRIC PERSONALITY TYPE IN RELATION TO
is no more frequent-if as frequent- PAROLE VIOLATION

among those of inferior than among those VIOLATION RATE BY

of higher intelligence, it would seem PERSONALITY TYPE
INSTITUTIONS

Pontiac Menard JolieC

TABLE XVI
per c ent per cent p r cent
INTELLIGBNCE IN RELATION TO RATE OPPAROLE
VIOLATION All persons............. 2.2- . I 2.6.5 L8.4
Egocentric............. . 4.3 23.5 38.o
VIOLATION RATE BY 2.2..6
Socially inadequate ........... 2.o. 24 7
INSTITUTIONS
INTELLIGENCE RATING Emotionally unstable......... 8.9 6* I6.6
Pontiac Mcnard Joliet
* Number of cases insufficient for calculating
pr csnt per cent percent
percentage.
All persons......... .2.. I 2.6.5 2.8.4
TABLE XVIII
Very inferior intelligence... 2.4.3 2.5 2. 2I .3
PSYCHIATRIC PROGNOSIS OP OUTCOME ON PAROLE
Inferior intelligence ........... 14.7 2.7.I 23 -4
Low average intelligence . .2..4 ..3..2- 3I.4 VIOLATION RATE BY
Average intelligence .......... I7.I 2.3.5 327o PSYCHATRIC PROGNOSIS
INSTITUTIONS

High average intelligence .... i.. 8 40.0 24.1 I

Pontiac Menard Joliet
Superior intelligence. ..........6.8 34.8 i6 .7
Very superior intelligence. 9.5 40.0 2.3.8 per cent percent percent

All persons................ ..2 I 26.5 2.8.4

Favorable outcome. .......... 14.8 2. .4 2.0.5
that inferior mentality should no longer Doubtful outcome ............ I7.6 2.8. I 5I .4
constitute a barrier to the granting of Unfavorable outcome ......... 30.5 33. 8 49.2.

parole.
Although less and less emphasis is being was classified under the terms "favorable,"
given to inferior mentality as a cause of "doubtful" or "unfavorable" as to the
delinquency and crime, more and more outcome.
attention is being paid to the study of For Pontiac and Joliet, the psychiatric
the personality of the individual offender. prognosis gives highly satisfactory results.
Herein lies the interest in the classification Compare the low percentage of violation
of personality types by the mental health where a favorable outcome had been
officer. predicted, I4.8 per cent at Pontiac and
The figures from Joliet, and to a lesser 2-o.5 per cent at Joliet, with the high rate
degree from Pontiac, seem to indicate that of violation where an unfavorable outcome
the paroled man with egocentric per- had been indicated, as 30.5 per cent at
sonality pattern faces the great difficulty Pontiac and 49.2. per cent at Joliet. The
544 SOCIALFORCES
explanation for the poorer correlation of were found to have a record above the
expectation and actual findings at Menard average on all twenty-one factors, and,
is in all probability due to the fact that in fact, the i,ooo cases had men distributed
the Southern Illinois Penitentiary has only in all groups except the lowest two, that
the part-time services of a psychiatrist, is, with one factor or no factor above the
and that therefore the individual examina- average. Table XIX is submitted as
tions must be hurried. indicating the expectancy rate for nine
groups of men paroled from Joliet based
DETERMINING EXPECTANCY RATES on the actual violation rate in the twenty-
one factors selected.
The final step in the study was to find Similar tables were preparedforMenard
some method of combining the rating of and for Pontiac with comparable results.
each man on all these twenty-one points The group with i6-2.i favorable points
in order to work out an expectancy rate is composed of those whose summary
sheets have the highest proportion of
TABLE XIX factors favorable to success, just as the
EXPECTANCY RATES OF PAROLE VIOLATION AND
group with only two to four favorable
NON-VIOLATION
points is made up of those with the largest
B O
X > m EXPECTANCY RATE FOR SUCCESS OR number of factors unfavorable to success
tE 0 r 0 0
0 fA
_ _ FAILRE
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ in their summary sheet. It is to be noted
_

Per cent
sno0ON
"
Nt I _
Per cent violators of parole
_ _ _ _ _ _ non-
_ that the highest group consisting of 68
od
.0___ __ - violators
o pq Z Minor Major Total of parole men contains only i. 5 per cent who on the
basis of past experience would be expected
i6-2ii 68 I .5 I.5 98.5
14-I5 I40 0-7 I.5 2.2. 97.8
to violate their parole, while in the lowest
13 9I 55 3 .3 8.8 9I. 2. group the expectancy rate of violation is
IX Io6 7.0 8. I 15.1 84.9 76 per cent.
II IIO I3.6 9.I 2.2..7 77.3 The practical value of an expectancy
IO 88 I9.3 I4.8 34. I 65.9 rate should be as useful in parole adminis-
7-9 2.87 I5 .0 2.8.9 43.9 56. I
tration as similar rates have proved to be
5-6 85 2.3.4 43.7 67.I 32*.9
2.4 2.5 I2..O 64.0 76. o 2.4.0 in insurance and in other fields where
forecasting the future is necessary. Not
only will these rates be valuable to the
of violating parole. Finally, after experl- Parole Board, but they will be equally
mentation the simple method was adopted valuable in organizing the work of super-
of grading each man as falling below or vision. For if the probabilities of viola-
above the average of the i,ooo cases in tion are even it does not necessarily mean
each institution on all twenty-one points. that the prisoner would be confined to
It was therefore theoretically possible the penitentiary until his maximum was
for a man to be in a more favorable group served, but that unusual precautions
than the average on all twenty-one would be taken in placing him and in
factors, or upon twenty factors, or upon supervising his conduct. Less of the
nineteen factors, and so on down the attention of the parole officers need in
scale to having a better position than the the future be directed toward those who
average upon three factors, upon two will succeed without attention and more
factors, upon one factor, and upon no may be given to those in need of assistance.
factor. Actually for Joliet several men The table of expectancy rates of viola-
 IS PREDICTION FEASIBLE IN SOCIAL WORK

tion and non-violation of parole is sub- many, and not limited to the parole of
mitted as illustrative of the possibilities adult criminals or juvenile delinquents.
of the method and not in any sense as in Expectancy rates based on experience
a form adapted for immediate use. 'tables can be preparedfor probabilities of
Indeed, the method needs to be still furthersuccess or failure on probation, for the
refined and then applied to from 3,000 to liability to family discord, for the likeli-
s,ooo cases for each institution in order hood of desertion, for the risks in child
to obtain an adequate statistical basis for placing.
the accurate working of satisfactory The future extent of the use of experience
expectancy tables. tables is not as significant for social work
This method of predicting the outcome as the possibilities that open up of the
of behavior on the basis of past experience value of expectancy rates in improving
as entered in the records of social agenciessocial case work. Both old and new
has already been carried further in other methods of treatment can have their
studies. Mr. Clark Tibitts, who was my efficiency guaged by comparison with the
assistant in the present study, has just expectancy rate. The determination of
completed a study of 3,000 cases of men an expectancy rate of failure in the treat-
paroled from the Illinois State Reforma- ment of a given problem at once constitutes
tory under the auspices of the Institute a challenge to social work. Just as
for Juvenile Research, which covers new modern medicine and the public health
factors which bring the total up to about movement has cut down the mortality
z25. Professor William F. Byron of North- rate and increased the span of life, so in
western University is applying this method a similar way the introduction of experi-
in a significant comparative study of the ence tables in social work may be expected
success records of young male delinquents to stimulate new discoveries in social
paroled from state industrial schools of treatment whose application will have
Massachusetts and Illinois. Professor observable and measurable effects in the
Bernard Glueck has, I believe, used the reduction of social problems.
same method but in an improved form in The study of prediction in human be-
his intensive study of the success records havior opens up a new avenue of coopera-
of delinquent boys with institutional tion between sociology and social work.
experience. Mrs. Margaret Elowson is The parole study indicated that many
employing the same method by the social situations as the group of associates,
examination of juvenile court records in the social type, the kind of neighborhood
an interesting study of delinquent girls. appear to play an important part in
determining the future behavior of the
APPLICATIONS TO SOCIAL WORK
person. Upon these and other points
In my judgment this same method and case records should contain more discrimi-
variations of it may with profit be widely nating and pertinent data which will prove
used wherever a social agency or other to be valuable alike for sociological
organization keeps relatively full records research and social practice. Expectancy
of significant traits of personality and of rates may be expected to make a real
behavior. The problems of social work contribution to the further study of
to which this method is applicable are personality in its social setting.