Aug 7th Aug 13th 2011

Volume 1, Issue 14

Elite Global Trading

Forex Weekly Commentary

Fundamental Outlook
world most likely the credit downgrade will fade quickly. EU holds an emergency meeting to buy Italian Bonds, which will most likely boost the EURO. With an extensive look at the worlds economic challenges it makes difficult to understand the long term outlook for the currency pairs. We suggest to take a short to medium term approach when making your trading decisions. Look to see this weeks currency outlook.

In this issue: Fundamental GBPUSD EURUSD AUDUSD GBPJPY NZDUSD 2 1

EURJPY EURCAD EURCHF

Event Risk

Contact Info Disclaimer

What do the coming months and weeks look like for the currency market? After this historic credit downgrade we scramble to understand the depths of market reactions for this week to come. Most likely we will get an initial shock to Markets opening this week. With all the shifts in economic events around the

UK Pound Sterling / United States Dollar

GBPUSD: Coming off last weeks low of 1.6220 up towards 1.6400 to close the week, we see this rally most likely to continue to start this week with resistance at 1.6450,1.6500 and 1.6530. With not much strength from the GBP we see the move up to have little follow through. Recommendation: Neutral, we will wait for rally to slow and hold up around 1.6500. Once we get a reversal to downside confirmation we will look for an entry and a move back down to the 1.6200 - 1.6150 levels.

Aug 7th Aug 13th 2011

Volume 1, Issue 14

Elite Global Trading

Euro / US Dollar
EURUSD: Coming off of last weeks low of 1.4050 the pair surged up to 1.4290 on Friday. We see the week starting out with a continued rally up towards resistance at 1.4330 1.4375 1.4450, all upward moves should be capped at 1.4450. We see an initial jump up to these resistance points to start the week, especially after US downgrade and EU buying Italian Bonds. With this settling in the market we expect a further drop in the EURUSD. Recommendation: Bearish Bias, Look for the rally to be capped at these resistance levels and wait for another short move down. After the rally we look to go short between 1.43501.4450, keeping stops above 1.4450. Targets would be towards the 1.4000 levels. If you are looking for a Riskier Shorter Term play look for support at 1.4200 and 1.4176 and look to go long with targets at 1.4330-1.4400.

Australian Dollar / United States Dollar

AUDUSD: Strong economy and good credit rating in Australia we still see further downside movement to 1.0200 levels and possible to parity in the weeks to come. We are looking for a recovery up before the downtrend continues. Levels of resistance are: 1.0551, 1.0590, 1.0644 and 1.0727 area. Recommendation: Bearish Bias, we see for the longer term trend more strength to downside, safety play is wait for a rally to resistance levels and look for short entry watch lower levels, 1.0375 to break with next stop 1.0200. AUDUSD has created a large trading range for the month look for opportunity in both directions with Bias to Bears.

UK Pound Sterling / Japanese Yen

GBPJPY: Further Yen strength expected with the US down grade. Support at 127.50, 126.70, 125.75 and 124.17. Resistance levels are, 129.26, 129.90, 130.25. Recommendation: Bearish Bias with intervention caution.

New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi) / United States Dollar

NZDUSD: Coming off the kiwi dollar all time highs with an aggressive move down 500+ pips, to .8280 from highs around .8800. We see further losses ahead for this pair. We see a rally up towards .8490-.8528 .8550. Recommendation: Neutral, look for opportunity in both directions with this pair, taking in consideration risk trends. Support at .8400 .8350 .8275 and .8120. We are looking for move up towards .8550-8600 area.

Aug 7th Aug 13th 2011

Volume 1, Issue 14

Elite Global Trading

Euro / Japanese Yen

EURJPY: Further Yen strength expected with the US down grade. This pair can be risky with the looming threat of quick reversals as BOJ is likely to intervene again if the YEN strengthens beyond previous levels. An initial move back down to support levels 110.30, 109.50, 109.00 and possible to 108.00 range. Recommendation: Bearish Bias with BOJ intervention alert. When playing shorts, play with caution and tight risk focusing on taking profits at appropriate levels. Look for resistance at 112.75 -113.50, 114.00.

Euro / Canadian Dollar (Loonie)

EURCAD: Has made an impressive rally off it's low of 1.3400 up to 1.4050 range. Pair looks to continue recovery for short term up towards 1.4300 highs. Short term resistance 1.4160 1.4220. Support at 1.3960, 1.3870 and 1.3780. Recommendation: Neutral, look for upside to be capped at resistance points for short term and another move to down to resume after a lower top is in place. We will step aside for long and wait for a short opportunity.

Euro / Swiss Franc

EURCHF: Swiss Franc, in safe haven status, is expected to continue to strengthen, look for further declines in EURCHF. A rally up to 1.1175 can be expected before another possible drop to new lows. Recommendation: Bearish Bias, resistance at 1.1050, 1.1094 1.1175 and 1.1330. Support at 1.0865 1.0767, 1.0700.

Aug 7th Aug 13th 2011

Volume 1, Issue 14

Elite Global Trading

Weeks Event Risk

Monday: JPY: Monetary Policy Meeting Min 7:50pm AUD: Home Loans 9:30pm CNY: CPI 10pm

Tuesday: GBP: Manufacturing Production 4:30am USD: Preliminary Non Farm Productivity 8:30 am USD: Fed Fund Rate 2:15pm CNY: Trade Balance

Wednesday: GBP: Inflation Report 5am AUD: Employment Change 9:30pm AUD: Unemployment Rate 9:30pm

Thursday: EUR: ECB Monthly Bulletin 4am USD:Trade Balance 8:30 am

Friday: EUR: French Preliminary GDP 1:30am EUR: Industrial Production 5am USD: Core Retail Sales 8:30am USD: Retail sales 8:30am USD: Preliminary UoM Consumer Confidence 9:55am

Elite Glob al Trading

News letter Authors: Anthony Rousseau

arousseau@eliteglobaltrader.com

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** Keep a close eye on US Debt Ceiling Vote, Tuesday & Wednesday