College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences

School of ………………………….

Program: MSc in…………………………………….

Course:

Title:
………………………………………………………………………………- A
Seminar
Submitted to: ………………

Submitted By: Samuel Lema

September 2022

Haramaya University, Haramaya, Ethiopia

Contents Page
ABSTRACT.................................................................................................................................................. 6
1. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................... 7
1.2 FOOD SECURITY............................................................................................................................................9
2. OBJECTIVE.............................................................................................................................................11
2.1 General objective....................................................................................................................................11
2.2. Specific Objectives.................................................................................................................................11
1. METHODOLOGY............................................................................................................................ 12
3.1 AREA OF REVIEWING...............................................................................................................................12
3.2 THE METHODS FOLLOWED FOR REVIEWING.........................................................................................12
2. LITERATURE REVIEW.................................................................................................................. 13
4.1 OVERVIEW OF CLIMATE CHANGE, CROP PRODUCTION AND FOOD ACCESSIBILITY............................13
4.2 IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON OUTCOMES FOR SUB SAHARAN AFRICA.........................................14
4.3 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CROP PRODUCTION.......................................................................14
4.4.1 Average Temperature Increase...........................................................................................................15
4.4.2 Change in Rainfall Amount and Patterns..........................................................................................16
4.4.3 Rising Atmospheric Concentrations of CO2......................................................................................16
4.4.4 Change in Climatic Variability and Extreme Events.........................................................................17
4.4.5 Rise in Sea Water Level.......................................................................................................................17
3. YIELD RESPONSE IN A CHANGING CLIMATE.........................................................................18
4. PROJECTED IMPACTS ON CROP YIELD....................................................................................19
5. FACTORS AFFECTING ACCESS TO FOOD.................................................................................21
6. PRICES (VOLATILITY) CAUSES AND TRENDS..........................................................................22
7. CONSEQUENCES............................................................................................................................ 23
8. MITIGATION AND SEQUESTRATION STRATEGIES OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR FIELD
CROPS...................................................................................................................................................... 23
9. SUMMERY....................................................................................................................................... 25
10. REFERENCES.............................................................................................................................. 26

II
List of table

Table 1..................................................................................................................................................13
Table 2 .................................................................................................................................................16
Table 3..................................................................................................................................................17
Table 4..................................................................................................................................................21

III
 List of figure
Figure 1..................................................................................................................................................8
Figure 2................................................................................................................................................10
Figure 3................................................................................................................................................21

IV
 LIST OF ACRONYM

ADB Asia Development Bank

FAO Food and Agricultural Organization
GDP Gross Domestic Product
IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institution
IPCC Inter-Governmental Panel for Climate Change
SOFI State of Food Insecurity in the World
SSA Sub-Saharan Africa

V
ABSTRACT

Agriculture is of special concern as it is the primary source of food and is dependent on

weather. The impact of climate change on agriculture is estimate to be large, even in the face
of large doubts. It is one of the drivers of globalization, is a growing concern not only in the
global scale but also in Sub Saharan Africa (SSA). This paper reviews numerous studies in
the influence of climatic change on crop production and food accessibility in SSA. Reports
have predicted that SSA is one of the regions that would have the most severe impacts of
climatic change. The increasing climatic variability brought about by the increase in the
extreme whether events, global warming, seawater rise and deficit in rainfall would
obviously have serious effects for food production and availability in the region. Thus,
climate change has threatened the food security in SSA. Climatic change would significantly
shake the livelihoods patterns, the ability to access food and the socio-economic lives of the
majority of the people in the region. Prediction models that we reviewed, in relation to
impacts of climatic change on the food systems, showed consistent predictions of decrease in
crop productivity, increase in land degradation, high food prices, and negative impacts on
livelihoods, and an increase malnourishment. Therefore, there is an urgent need to avert the
trend which climatic change is reducing the entire SSA into through the adoption of robust
adaptation strategies as a means of mitigating severe food insecurity across the entire region.
This can help to mitigate the impacts of climate change on crop production and food security
and thus, increase the capacity of the people to adapt. The feasible adaptation programs that
could be adopted include improvement in agricultural land areas, crop productivity,
cropping intensity, consumption and strengthening of all aspect’s agriculture.

Key words: climate change; extreme weather events; food accessibility; food price volatility;
food security; Sub‐Saharan Africa
 1. Introduction

Agriculture constitutes the backbone of most African economies and is a major contributor to
the gross domestic product (GDP) of the region. Africa has been identified as one of the parts
of the world most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change (Field et al., 2014)

Here we present an overview of the effects of climate change projected for the Sub-Saharan
region of the continent. The agriculture sector employs 65 % of Africa’s labour force and the
sector have output have increased since 2000, mainly due to an expansion of agricultural area
(Berhe et al., 2015). Yield potential remains higher than actually achieved, with inadequate
water and nutrients being the major limiting factors (Mueller ND, Gerber JS, Johnston M,
Ray DK, Ramankutty, 2012).Agricultural production in Sub-Saharan Africa is particularly
susceptible to the effects of climate change, with rain fed agriculture accounting for
approximately 96 % of overall crop production ((World Bank, 2015a).

In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), about 60 percent of the economically active population works
in the agricultural sector. Any improvement in this sector would amount to an increase in the
rural incomes and the purchasing power of a large number of the population in the region
and, this world reduce poverty and hunger and, ensures sustainable development(Irz et al.,
2001). Therefore, to ensure that the region is food secure, actions geared toward higher
agricultural production and increasing access to food should vigorously pursue.

However, climate change considered as posing the greatest challenge to agriculture and food
security in SSA. This is because the region is vulnerable to climatic change and its coping
capacity is perceived to be very low(Shah M, Fischer G and van Velthuizen H (2008) )
(Nellemann, 2009). Reports indicate that food production, including access to food, in many
African countries projected to be severely cooperated by climate variability and change(R.
Pachauri and Reisinger, 2008)

This means that areas suitable for agriculture negatively affected by climatic change and the
yield potentials of many high-profile crops produced in the region, particularly along the
margins of semiarid, arid and coastal areas are expected to decrease. Moreover, it would
further adversely affect food security and exacerbate malnutrition in the region. FAO (2008)
estimates indicate that the number of hungry and malnourished people due to insufficient
food availability and lack of access to food, have increased from about 90 million in 1970 to
225 million in 2008, and was projected to add another 100 million by 2015. Climate change

2
is an important environmental, social and economic issue. It threatens the achievement of
Millennium Development Goals aimed at poverty and hunger reduction, health improvement
and environmental sustainability(UNDP. (2010) .).

Figure 1 map of the five main sub Saharan African agro ecology

National poverty rates have been declining in most Sub Saharan African countries, with the
exception of Mozambique, Cote d Ivoire and Guinea, although Sub Saharan still has the
largest proportion of people living below the poverty line of all world regions(Berhe et al.,
2015.). Levels of stunting among children under 5 years of age as a result of chronic hunger
are slowly declining but remain high at 39.6 % in 2011 (United Nations Children’s Fund,
World Health Organization and The World Bank 2012). Around one in four people in Sub-
Saharan Africa is undernourished, amounting to a quarter of the world’s undernourished
people (FAO, 2020).

Climate change affects the type of policy measures that government’s take and the adaptation
strategies that the potential victims adopt. Existing policies and institutions also influence the
severity of climate change in a country or region. Moreover, climate change affects crop yield

3
and the livelihood patterns of households depending on the adaptation strategies put in place.
According to Smit and Pilifosova (2001), adaptive capacity is defined as “the potential or
ability of a system, region, or community to adapt to the effects or impacts of climate
change”. The adaptation strategies determine the productivity of the ecosystem and the food
security status of that household. A lower agricultural production and productivity due to
climate change has implications for food prices, which in turn affect the livelihood and food
security status of households in a country. In the absence of proper social security programs
and where markets are not functioning well, which is the case in most of the countries in
SSA, high prices will have severe short and long‐ term impacts on households.

1.2 Food Security

As defined in the Rome Declaration on World Food Security 1996 food security exists when
all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious
food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life (FAO,
1996, p. 4). Food security depends on availability of food, access to food, and utilization of
food (FAO (2000)) .

Food availability refers to the existence of sufficient quantities of food in appropriate quality,
and supplied through domestic production or import. Food availability is a result of domestic
production, distribution, storage, import and export. The comparison of available food to the
estimated domestic consumption requirement gives estimation to the deficit or surplus of
food availability in a certain country(FAO (2008a)). Food availability is probably most
frequently used as a measurement of food security. It is also the channel which climate
change directly affects food security(Thompson HF, Berrang Ford L and Ford, JD (2010)).

In the 2015 deadline set for achieving the Millennium Development Goal targets, Sub-
Saharan Africa (SSA) made some progress towards halving the proportion of its population
suffering from hunger (MDG 1.C target). Overall, the prevalence of hunger in the region
declined by31percent between the base period (1990- 92) and 2015, according to the latest
estimates of the State of Food Insecurity in the World (SOFI, 2015). In other words,
approximately one person out of four in SSA is estimated to be undernourished today
compared to a ratio of one out of three in 1990-92.Access to food is determined by physical
and financial resources as well as social and political factors (Ericksen et al., 2011).

Food access consists of affordability, allocation and preferences. Physical availability of food
is not sufficient for an individual to have access to food. There may be food available in the

4
market but some households may not access it for many reasons such as poverty, poor
infrastructure, high prices, transaction cost, etc. The food available in the market may also be
not the type that the households prefer. Thus, insufficient access to food could be a result of
either high prices or lack of capacity to acquire food. The concept of access to food has been
specially given emphasis since Amartya Sen’s seminal book “Poverty and Famines” that
shows famine can occur in spite of availability of food but due to failure of entitlement by a
group of people to food(Sen, 1982).

Utilization of food depends on how food is used, whether food has sufficient nutrients and
whether a balanced diet can be maintained. “Food utilization refers to the individual or
household capacity to consume and benefit from food” (FAO (2011).). Although food
availability and access to food are necessary for food utilization, they are not sufficient
conditions. A household who has physical as well as economic access to food could be food
insecure if it cannot get a balanced and nutritious diet. Food utilization has implications for
healthy and productive population in a country. Food utilization is determined, among other
things, by food preparation, nutrition knowledge, health care, access to clean drinking water,
women and child care and women’s role (Negin et al., 2009). These are specially limited if
not absent in most of the SSA countries where disease and malnutrition is widespread as a
result.

5
 production , distribution affordabality, allocation
and exchange and preference

food
avaialabilit food access
y

food
food utility
stability
to be food secure to nutritious, safe and
household,p social value

Figure 2 The four pillars of food security

2. Objective
2.1 General objective
To review knowledge about the relationships among climate change, food production and
food accessibility in Sub-Saharan Africa

2.2. Specific Objectives

 To review the impact of climate change on crop yield in Sub Saharan Africa
 To give insight the way climate change affects food accessibility in SSA

6
 1. METHODOLOGY

3.1 Area of Reviewing

The area of reviewing focuses on SSA, which can be separated into five major climatic
regions (FAO, 1986a; cited in FAO (1997)): Sodano-Sahelian Africa, humid and sub-humid
West Africa, humid Central Africa, sub-humid and mountainous East Africa and sub-humid
and semiarid South Africa. These regions are refers to as Sodano -Sahel, West, Central, East
and South. The five climatic regions are displayed in Figure.

3.2 The Methods Followed for Reviewing.

Revising of Journal Research Papers, Project Reports, Thesis and Dissertation Researches,
Reference Books and Text Book Chapters

7
 2. LITERATURE REVIEW

4.1 Overview of Climate Change, Crop Production and Food Accessibility

Crop production and food accessibility are key elements for determining whether an
individual a household or even a given region is food secured. These elements are affected
climatic change. Thus, climate change is a critical element for assessing the household or
regional food security. FAO (2008) stated that climate change will affect food security
through its impacts on all components of global, national and local food systems(FAO,
2008b)).

There is an overwhelming report that climate change will bring both impacts and
opportunities with respect to crop production. Crop production is one aspect of the food
systems affected by climate change. It is very pertinent to look at how climatic change would
affect crop production in SSA. This is because crop production does not only look at how the
crops we consume are produced, but it is also an employer of labor especially in SSA where

8
over 70 percent of the people depend on farming for their livelihoods. Thus, if the people are
no longer able to make their living producing food crops, their ability to have the capital to
access food may also be affected. Therefore, any change affecting the crop production in SSA
will have significant ripple effects that results not only in the reduction of the available food
but also increases market prices in the region FAO (20014). In this review, we will look at
the interactions of climatic change with crop production and food accessibility in SSA.

4.2 Impact of Climate Change on Outcomes for Sub Saharan Africa

While climate change impacts in the form of yield declines are less severe in Sub-Saharan
Africa than in Asia, for example in ADB and IFPRI (2009), Sub Saharan Africa is much
more vulnerable to climate change. This is because Africa’s adaptive capacity is extremely
low, which is linked to acute poverty levels and poor infrastructure, as reflected in a high
dependence on rain fed agriculture, As we have shown, Sub-Saharan Africa faces increased
net food imports even under the historic climate scenario because of growing populations;
faster economic growth than in the past; and growing urbanization, coupled with insufficient
improvement in agricultural productivity (Ringler et al., 2009.)(Ikeme, 2003)(Change and
2007).

4.3 Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Production

Climate change affects crop production through direct impacts on the biophysical factors
such as plant and animal growth and the physical infrastructure associated with food
processing and distribution (Schmidhuber and Tubiello, 2007). In this section, we will be
exploring on how climate change will affect crop production in SSA directly. Recent research
has suggested that some impacts of climate change are occurring more rapidly than
previously anticipated(Parry et al., 2007a). Climate change will affect crop area, yield, and
production. In SSA, climate models predict increased evapotranspiration and lower soil
moisture levels (Rosenzweig et al., 2002).This would result in drought, some agricultural
lands becoming unsuitable for cropping, and some tropical grassland becoming increasingly
arid (Lobell et al., 2011).

Table 1. Gives changes in crop yields for major crops grown in Sub-Saharan Africa by agro
ecological zone. Interestingly, yield impacts are quite heterogeneous across crops and zones,
and no crop or zone has consistently positive or negative results. Among the crops, the
Sudano-Sahelian and Eastern zones show projected yield increases for four out of the five

9
crops. Rice is particularly important in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, and maize is the key staple
crop in Eastern Africa. The Central zone, on the other hand, shows yield declines for four out
of five crops, but declines are minor. The Gulf of Guinea shows the largest yield declines for
cassava and sweet potato, and the Southern zone has projected declines for maize, rice, and
cassava.

Table 1 Yield changes, selected crops, under climate change, by agro ecological zone, Sub-
Saharan Africa, 2050, (in percent)
Maize Sugarcane Rice Sweet potato and yam Cassava
Gulf of guinea 0.24 0.50 1.38 15.09 11.94
Sodano Sahelian 3.30 1.39 0.80 1.98 1.22
Southern 0.91 1.09 2.32 1.14 0.75
Eastern 1.92 0.31 0.24 1.06 0.42
Central 0.79 0.93 0.63 0.11 0.14

4.4. Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Production

Climate change affects crop production through direct impacts on the biophysical factors
such as plant and animal growth and the physical infrastructure associated with food
processing and distribution (Schmidhuber and Tubiello, 2007). In this section, we will be
exploring on how climate change will affect crop production in SSA directly.

Recent research has suggested that some impacts of climate change are occurring more
rapidly than previously anticipated (Parry et al., 2007a). Crop production in SSA is directly
affected by many aspects of climatic change, stemming primarily from:

 Average temperature increase(Parry et al., 2007a)

 Change in rainfall amount and patterns
 Rising atmospheric concentrations of CO2
 Change in climatic variability and extreme events
 Sea water rise

4.4.1 Average Temperature Increase

Increases in mean, maximum and minimum temperatures are forecasted for most regions of
the world as a result of climate change. It is expected that countries in the low latitude
(tropical and sub-tropical) regions, where water availability is low, would generally be at risk
of decreased crop yield at even 1 to 2°C of warming (Parry et al., 2007a, FAO,2008b). This is

10
as a result of increased evapo‐transpiration and lower soil moisture levels (Bals C,
etal.,2008). Thus, the phenomenon would result in some of the agricultural lands in the SSA,
which is located in the tropics, becoming unsuitable for cropping and some grassland
becoming unsuitable for pasture (Bals etal.,2008).). This would result in crop yield reduction
in the region. The extent of these declines in yields is still unknown, but some analysts
suggest they could be severe (Bals C, et al.,2008).

4.4.2 Change in Rainfall Amount and Patterns

It is expected that as a result of climate change, the temperate regions (wet areas) could
become wetter and the dry areas in the tropics could become drier (FAO,2008b). The
intensity of rainstorms could increase (in some areas) and precipitation could become more
variable and unpredictable. The change in rainfall can affect soil erosion rates and soil
moisture, both of which are important for crop yields. SSA would experience decreased
precipitation, which according to Parry et al. (2007) is about 20 percent. Thus, increase in
temperature along with reduced precipitation will likely result in the loss of arable land in the
region due to decreased soil moisture, increased aridity, increased salinity and groundwater
depletion (Bals C, etal.,2008). Water shortages could lead to water rationing and higher water
costs and will limit opportunities to maintain or extend these cultivated agricultural lands
through the use of irrigation. FAO (2008) opined that reduction in available good quality
water for crop at certain times of the year will negatively affect food supplies. SSA depends
on rain‐fed agriculture and, the distortion of the rainfall pattern would limit crop production
and this would bring untold physical and socio‐economy hardship to the rural farmers in the
region.

4.4.3 Rising Atmospheric Concentrations of CO2

The atmospheric CO2 concentrations are estimated to be approximately 379 ppm at present
but are projected to potentially rise to 550 ppm by 2100 under the IPCC Scenario under the
lowest future emissions scenario and greater than 800 ppm under the business as usual
scenario(Schmidhuber and Tubiello, 2007). Increasing atmospheric CO2 levels is beneficial
to plant: it acts as a fertilizer by enhancing the growth and development of crops. Increase in
the atmospheric CO2 levels would stimulate photosynthesis and improves water‐use
efficiency (Eamus, 1991)(Bazzaz and Sombroek, 1996). Thus resulting in an increase in the
crop biomass and yield. However, the increasing atmospheric CO 2 level does not only
contribute to increased crop yields, but is also a major cause of the greenhouse effect.

11
4.4.4 Change in Climatic Variability and Extreme Events

Extreme events are not new phenomena in agriculture, but they are expected to increase in
frequency and the areas subject to extreme events are likely to expand(Schmidhuber and
Tubiello, 2007). (Lychuk et al., 2017) cited several studies that projected increased frequency
of extreme weather events in SSA, which will have more serious consequences for food
production and food security. This is becoming worrisome due to the high dependence of the
region on rain‐fed agriculture. Climate variability, particularly severe flooding and droughts,
have been directly linked to declines in economic activity (Brown et al., 2009). Reports of
(Wassmann and Dobermann, 2007) showed that the SSA region has experienced a series of
extreme precipitation events that seem to be linked to changing climate. According to the
report, the 2000 Mozambique flood had apart from huge human losses a devastating effect on
the agriculture of Mozambique with approximately 90 percent of the country's functioning
irrigation infrastructure damaged and a significant loss in agricultural land that resulted many
households without food.

4.4.5 Rise in Sea Water Level

Sea level is set to rise as a consequence of increasing global temperatures. Both will increase
the vulnerability of coastal and low lying agricultural lands factoring in impacts such as
coastal inundation, soil salinization and intense rainfall. Sea level has already risen by 15 to
20 cm due to the melting of glaciers and polar ice, as well as rising temperatures in the
oceans(Douglas, 1997). There is significant uncertainty with regard to how much sea level
could rise, but current projections suggest a sea level rise of about half a meter by 2100 can
be expected and that it could possibly be significantly higher (Ibid). The countries that would
be vulnerable to sea water rise in SSA include: Gambia, Gulf of Guinea, Senegal, Southern
Mediterranean and Mozambique. Coastal inundation and soil salinization, will lead to a loss
in agricultural land in the region. This would significantly affect crop production in the
coastal regions, leading to regional loss in famers’ income and food supply systems.
Contamination of arable land through greater exposure to wastewater is also a
possibility(Eamus, 2009).

Table 2 : Consequences of Climate Change on Food Systems in SSA

Climat chang Region/Country Direct consequences for food systems

e e
impact

12
Average Countries of SSA Increased evapo‐transpiration, resulting in
temperature reduced
increase soil moisture
- Greater destruction of crops and trees by
Hot days & pests
nights - Greater threats to human that reduce the
productivity and availability of agricultural
labour
Warm spells/heat - Reduced quantity and reliability of
agricultural yields
- Greater need for cooling/refrigeration to
maintain
waves over most food quality and safety
land - Greater threat of wildfires
areas
Extreme events Semi‐arid and sub‐ Crop failure or reduced yields
-
humid Africa Damage to forests
-
- Droughts (particularly the Destruction of agricultural inputs
-
- Floods Sahel, Increased
- land degradation and
Horn of Africa and desertification
Southern Africa), - Damage to crops & food stores
- Soil erosion, inability to cultivate land due
to water logging
Change in SSA - Reduced quantity and quality of
rainfall amount agricultural yields and forest products
and patterns - Shortage of water and heavy reliance on
irrigation
Sea‐level rise West Africa Loss of cropland and nursery areas for fisheries
(Gambia, through salt water intrusion
Gulf of Guinea, Salinisation of irrigation water, estuaries &
Senegal), Southern freshwater systems which will threaten
Mediterranean - irrigated crops
(Egypt) - aquaculture in low‐lying areas
and East Africa - coral fisheries dependent on spawning
(Mozambique) grounds in mangrove swamps
East Africa

3. Yield Response in a Changing Climate

In SSA, climate models predict increased evapo‐transpiration and lower soil moisture levels
(Rosenzweig et al., 2002). This would result in drought, some agricultural lands becoming
unsuitable for cropping, and some tropical grassland becoming increasingly arid. exploited
historical data from over 20,000 field trials of maize conducted in Africa over the past decade
and, they found out that each ‘degree day’ that the crop spends above 30 °C (a unit that
reflects both the amount and duration of heat experienced by the plant) depresses yields by 1

13
percent if the plants are receiving sufficient water. They also revealed that water availability
has an important effect on the crops sensitivity; with yields decreasing by 1.7 percent for each
degree day spent over 30°C under drought conditions (Lobell et al., 2011).

They indicated that under non‐drought conditions 65 percent of the land area in Africa that is
under maize cultivation at present would experience yield losses from a uniform 1 °C
warming. Under drought conditions, 100 percent of the present cultivated area would
experience yield losses, with 75 percent of this area suffering yield losses of at least 20
percent. Temperature rise will also expand the range of many agricultural pests and diseases
by increasing the ability of pest populations to survive and attack crops thereby causing yield
reduction. The climate change will exacerbate drought and land degradation, with estimations
of 5 to 8 percent increase (60 to 90 million ha) of arid and semiarid land in Africa (Parry et
al., 2007b).

This means that about two‐thirds of arable land in Africa is expected to be lost by 2025, land
degradation currently leads to the loss of an average of more than 3 percent annually of
agriculture GDP in SSA (UNESC (2007.). In addition, decreased rainfall would impact
negatively on the yields from rain‐fed agriculture, with estimations of up to 50 percent in
some countries by 2020. Maize, for example, could be discontinued in some areas in the
region.

4. Projected Impacts on Crop Yield

The projected change in yields as a result of climate change in 2050 for selected crops grown
in SSA is shown in Figure 3. (Ringler et al., 2010) reported that, negative yield impacts are
projected to be largest for wheat, followed by sweet potato, whereas overall yields for millet
and sorghum are projected to be slightly higher under climate change. Although negative
impacts are largest for wheat, the region grows very little of it (about 4.3 million ha in 2000).

Table 3. Yield Changes by Crop as a Result of Climate Change, 2050, SSA (% change)

14
 Chart Title

2 3
0.6
wheat potato and cassava maize -2
rice sugarcane millet surgam
yam -4.5
-8
-13.5

-22

Source: IFPRI, 2007

Changes in temperature and precipitation associated with continued emissions of CO2 gases
will bring changes in land suitability and crop yields. The IPCC Special Report on Emissions
Scenarios (SRES, 2000) grouped the socio‐economic development and associated emissions
into four scenarios, namely; A2, B2, A1 and B1. The A1 scenario (the “business ‐as ‐usual
scenario”) is the scenario of the highest CO2 emissions, while the B1 category corresponds to
the lowest CO2 emission. The A2 and B2 scenarios are intermediate between the A1 and B1
scenarios. Depending on the SRES emission scenario and climate models considered, global
mean surface temperature is projected to rise in a range from 1.8°C (with a range from 1.1°C
to 2.9°C for SRES B1) to 4.0°C (with a range from 2.4°C to 6.4°C for A1) by 2100 (R.
Pachauri and Reisinger, 2008).

Changes in the regional crop yields under each of the IPCC (2000) SRES scenario are the
result of the interactions among temperature and precipitation effects, direct physiological
effects of increased CO2, and effectiveness and availability of adaptations. The potential
changes in world and regional wheat, rice, maize, and soybean production for the 2020s,
2050s and 2080s (compared with 1990) under SRES scenarios with and without elevated
atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The model predicted that by 2030, small changes in cereal
yield will be evident in all scenarios (Faurès et al., 2005.), and the differences in the mean
impacts of the SRES scenarios will depend on the range of the spatial variability. Generally,
the SRES scenarios result in grain yield decrease in SSA. (R. K. Pachauri et al., 2014).

15
The A1 scenario, as expected with its large increase in global temperatures, exhibits the
greatest decreases in the grain yields, especially by the 2080s. Decreases are significant in
SSA with expected losses up to 30 percent. This is an indication that effects of temperature
and precipitation changes on the yields are beyond the inflection point of the beneficial direct
effects of CO2. However, the B1 scenario will result in smaller cereal yield decreases that
never exceed 10 percent .(R. Pachauri and Reisinger, 2008).

5. Factors Affecting Access to Food

Households in SSA countries fail to access food for many reasons. The factors are not
entirely independent. The impact of climatic change could result in failure of farmers’ crops
which would give rise to a greater reliance on purchased commodities. For a farmer with
small asset base such a loss in production would, obviously increase his/her poverty status,
lead to rise in the prices of crops and high rate of unemployment. Lack of education may
result in suboptimal decision making by households about investments, credit, sale of
outputs, etc. High food prices and unemployment deteriorate the purchasing power of the
households which may potentially lead them to food insecurity. Poor access to infrastructure
and markets may result in an exclusion of rural households from markets where they can earn
better prices for their surplus produce. Thin markets and high transaction costs force farmers
to gain less for their produce but to spend more for purchased commodities. Property rights
and climate change have an indirect effect on food accessibility via their effect on food
availability. The following sections go more into detail about these drivers of accessibility to
food (Economics, 2016).

16
Figure 3. Factor affecting food accessibility
Source: (Gregory et al., 2005). The arrows in dotted lines are for factors that primarily affect
food availability whereas the others primarily influence food accessibility.

6. Prices (Volatility) Causes and Trends

After about three decades of low and relatively stable level, international agricultural
commodity prices experienced a dramatic rise from late 2006 until they surge as large as the
all‐time high in June 2008. The World Bank Food Price Index rose by about 50 percent from
June 2010 to February 2011 and attained its 2008 hike. Several studies addressed the
potential causes of high level and volatile food prices. Climate change (extreme weather
events) is one of the root causes for the recent high and volatile food prices. An increase in
price volatility has implications for resource allocation, investment decisions of farmers and
thus on their welfare and future livelihoods. Although food prices have increased in almost
all countries and for many agricultural commodities, the impact of the rise in prices differs
across countries for many reasons. Many SSA countries are affected negatively by the rise in
prices. This is because most of these countries are net food importers and they are more
vulnerable than the developed countries. The major negative impact of high food prices rests
on smallholder farmers in SSA since they have little or no social security from the state(von
Braun and Torero, 2009) and consequences(Ivanic et al., 2008).

17
 7. Consequences

The impact of an increase in agricultural prices on farmers is not obvious: it depends on

whether the farmer is a net seller or a net buyer of food. While the net seller, a farmer who
produces a surplus, benefits from a rise in food prices, the net buyer loses. The majority of
the farmers in SSA are net buyers and an increase in price has a welfare reducing impact.
However, the impact of high prices on consumers is unambiguously adverse. Low purchasing
power of households as a result of high prices leads to a failure to access food, which in turn
reduce individual’s calorie availability. Households may be forced to reduce the quality
and/or quantity of the food they consume, consume less preferred food, and allocate food to
certain household members because of high prices. High food prices also have long‐term
human capital effects. Households may be forced to withdraw children from school or spend
less on health and nutrition in order to compensate the loss in purchasing power due to high
prices. Studies show that undernourished people in their early childhood have more than 10
percent lower life time earning capacities due to physical and mental impairment(Berhe et al.,
2015.). This is especially true since the majority of consumers in the SSA region spend a
substantial share of their income on food.

8. Mitigation and sequestration strategies of climate change for field

crops
Although agriculture contributes to excess greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, it is possible
to reduce emissions and even remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through specific
land management practices. There are three main concepts central to interactions between
climate change and agriculture

1) Mitigation: intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse

gases

2) Sequestration: the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and subsequent
storage in carbon sinks (such as oceans, forests, or soils) through physical or
biological processes, most notably through photosynthesis (Pirog et al., 2009).

3) Adaptation: Initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human
systems gains actual or expected climate change effects (Quality and 2008, n.d.) IPCC
(2007)

18
Table 4.Mitigation and sequestration strategies for field crop agriculture Mitigation and
sequestration strategies for field crop agriculture

Goal Practices Additional benefit for the

farmers
Reduce fossils fuel Renewable energy source Saves money, potential new
consumption Improved efficient biofuel crop and markets.
equipment, biofuel crop
substitution
Restore (sequester) soil Crop diversity through crop Improve soil and water quality
carbon: increases rotation and cover crop: and reduce erosion
carbon input to the soil increases crop residue
quantity in no tillage:
manure and compost
addition
Restore ( sequester ) Permanent no till retain crop Improve soil, air and water
soil carbon : increases residue, perennial crop quality reduce soil erosion and
carbon input to the soil fuel use.
Reduce nitrous oxide Better management of Improve water quality , saves
emission. nitrogen fertilizer. expenses , labor and time

19
 9. SUMMERY

This review paper summarizes that, climatic change has significant negative effects on the
crop yields and this will pose a huge challenge to the livelihoods and food accessibility of
most people living in SSA. This will not only result in food imports but also, the number of
households who will not be able to have access to adequate food to meet their nutritional
requirements would increase. The paper also describes how the lack of food accessibility
affects malnutrition, human capital and productivity. Climate change may be seen as a
challenge in the way of SSA reaching its potential but the respective governments and
relevant stakeholders should vigorously pursue, adopt and push for adaptation strategies that
will not only mitigate further food insecurity, but could also diminish that which had already
set in. This is especially necessary since poor farmers often lack the ability to adapt and are
therefore more sensitive to climate change (Thompson 2010).

One possible adaption strategy for farmers is to diversify livelihoods since not all sources of
income are affected as much by climate change (e.g. off farm employment). There is no
doubt that action and investment of governments is needed for effective adaption strategies.
To directly improve the physical access to food. With respect to production, governments
may support the breeding of crops for biotic and abiotic stresses with a high tolerance to
drought, heat stress, salinity or flooding. Enhancing the agricultural management skills as
well as making relevant information available to relevant stakeholders could go a long way in
helping farmers improving and developing their own mitigation or adaption strategies.

The respective SSA governments should also strive to implement a good social safety net,
e.g. through weather based crop insurance systems. Moreover, water control measures can be
improved, IT systems upgraded and extended and their services extended to the poor resource
famers in rural areas. An open trade regime, which is a way to share climate risk across
countries and mitigate adverse effects of climate change, should be adopted. Finally, there
should be a greater commitment of the various stakeholders and significant investments and
expenditures in the agricultural sector to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change in
SSA.

20
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