Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Belgium's Fifth Biennial Report On Climate Change Under The United Nations Framework Convention On Climate Change (2022)
Belgium's Fifth Biennial Report On Climate Change Under The United Nations Framework Convention On Climate Change (2022)
CLIMATE CHANGE
Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
BELGIUM’S EIGHTH NATIONAL COMMUNICATION
AND FIFTH BIENNIAL REPORT ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Federal Public Service Health, Food Chain Safe- Belgian Federal Science Policy Office Flemish government Ministère de la Fédération Wallonie-Bruxelles /
ty and Environment WTCIII Department Economy, Science and Innovation AGERS
DG Environment - Climate Change Section Boulevard Simon Bolivar 30 bte 7 (EWI) Direction Générale de l'Enseignement Non Obli-
Avenue Galilée 5, box 2 1000 Brussels, Belgium Koning Albert II-laan 35, box 10 gatoire et de la Recherche Scientifique
B-1210 Brussels, Belgium e-mail: aline.vanderwerf@belspo.be B-1030 Brussels, Belgium Rue A. Lavallée, 1
e-mail: climate@health.fgov.be URL: http://www.belspo.be e-mail: info@ewi.vlaanderen.be B-1080 Brussels
URL: http://www.climatechange.be URL: http://www.ewi-vlaanderen.be e-mail: etienne.cools@cfwb.be
Flemish government URL: http://www.recherchescientifique.cfwb.be
Federal Public Service Economy, SMEs, Flemish Energy and Climate Agency Flemish government and http://www.enseignement.be
Self-employed and Energy Koning Albert II-laan 20 - box 17 Agency for Maritime and Coastal Services -
DG Energy B-1000 Brussels, Belgium Coastal Division IRCEL-CELINE (Belgian interregional Environ-
Rue du Progrès, 50 e-mail: veka@vlaanderen.be Vrijhavenstraat 3 ment Agency)
B-1210 Brussels, Belgium URL: energiesparen.be B-8400 Ostend, Belgium Rue Gaucheret 92-94
e-mail: info.eco@economie.fgov.be e-mail: kust@vlaanderen.be B-1030 Brussels, Belgium
URL: http://www.economie.fgov.be Flemish government URL: http://www.afdelingkust.be e-mail: biernaux@irceline.be
Department of Environment and Spatial Planning URL: http://www.irceline.be/
Federal Public Service Mobility and Transport Koning Albert II-laan 20 box 8 Environment Brussels
DG Sustainable Mobility and Rail Policy B-1000 Brussels, Belgium Avenue du port 86c Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium
Rue du Progrès, 56 e-mail: omgeving@vlaanderen.be B-1000 Brussels, Belgium Avenue Circulaire 3
B-1210 Brussels, Belgium URL: omgeving.vlaanderen.be e-mail: pvanderplancke@environnement.brussels B-1180 Brussels, Belgium
e-mail: DirMobSec@mobilit.fgov.be URL: http://www.environment.brussels e-mail: stijn.nevens@meteo.be
URL: http://mobilit.belgium.be/fr/mobilite Flemish government URL: http://www.meteo.be
Flemish Department of the Chancellery and Wallonia Public Service
Federal Public Service Foreign Affairs, Foreign Foreign Affairs Wallonia Agency for Air and Climate (AWAC)
Trade and Development Cooperation Havenlaan 88 – box 100 Avenue Prince de Liège, 7 box 2
DG Development Cooperation and Humanitarian B-1000 Brussels, Belgium B-5100 Jambes, Belgium
Aid e-mail: secretariaat_sg.dkbuza@vlaanderen.be e-mail: info-airclimat@wallonie.be
Rue des Petits Carmes, 15 URL: https://www.vlaanderen.be/dkbuza URL: http://www.awac.be
B-1000 Brussels, Belgium
e-mail: annemarie.Vanderavort@diplobel.fed.be Flemish Environment Agency (VMM)
URL: http://www.diplomatie.be Emission Inventory Air and Environment Re-
porting Flanders
Federal Planning Bureau Dokter De Moorstraat 24-26 Edited by the National Climate Commission – December 2022
Task Force on Sustainable Development B-9300 Aalst, Belgium
Published and distributed by the
Avenue des Arts, 47-49 e-mail: info@vmm.be and mira@vmm.be
Federal Public Service Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment
B-1000 Brussels, Belgium URL: http://www.vmm.be and http://www.envi-
e-mail: tfsd@plan.be ronmentflanders.be Avenue Galilée 5 Box 2, B-1210 Brussels, Belgium
URL: http://www.plan.be
Legal Deposit: D/2022/2196/46
Table of contents 4. Policies and measures
4.1 Policy-making process........................................................49
9. Public awareness, education and training
9.1 Introduction......................................................................131
4.2 Domestic and regional programmes and/or legislative 9.2 Raising awareness.............................................................132
arrangements and enforcement and administrative 9.3 Education and training......................................................143
procedures...........................................................................56 9.4 Sources of information on the internet.............................153
4.3 Policies and measures and their effects .............................59
Introduction 4.4 Policies and measures no longer in place...........................62 Annexes
1. Executive summary 4.5 Minimising the adverse effects of response measures .......62 Annex 1. Supplementary information under Article 7(2)
National circumstances relevant to greenhouse of the Kyoto Protocol – Correlation table........................157
5. Projections and the total effect of policies
gas emissions and removals..................................................5 Annex 2. 5th biennial report.......................................................158
and measures, and supplementarity relating to
Greenhouse gas inventory information..........................................7 Kyoto protocol mechanisms 1 Preamble...........................................................................158
Policies and measures....................................................................7 5.1 Projections..........................................................................64 2 Information on greenhouse gas emissions
Projections and the total effect of policies and measures..............8 5.2 Assessment of aggregated effects of policies and trends..........................................................................158
Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptation and measures.......................................................................90 3 Quantified economy wide emission r
measures...............................................................................9 5.3 Supplementarity relating to mechanisms under eduction target..................................................................159
Financial resources and technology transfer..................................9 article 6, 12 and 17, of the Kyoto protocol.........................91 4 Progress regarding the achievement
Research.......................................................................................10 of quantified economy wide emission reduction
Public awareness, education and training....................................10 6. Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts targets and relevant information.......................................160
and adaptation measures 5 Projections for 2020 & 2030............................................161
2. National circumstances relevant to greenhouse 6.1 Introduction........................................................................92 6 Provision of financial, technological and
gas emissions and removals 6.2 Forecast impacts of climate change in Belgium.................94 capacity-building support to developing-
2.1 Institutional structure..........................................................12 6.3 Vulnerability assessment and climate-change adaptation country Parties..................................................................161
2.2 Population profile [1] .........................................................13 measures.............................................................................99 7 Other reporting matters.....................................................163
2.3 Geographical profile...........................................................14 6.4 Cooperation on adaptation................................................104 Annex 3. Description of models used........................................164
2.4 Economic profile.................................................................17
2.5 Energy profile.....................................................................18 7. Provision of Financial Resources and Transfer of, or Annex 4. Description of selected projects or
2.6 Transport.............................................................................22 Access to Technologies programmes that promoted practicable steps
7.1 Introduction......................................................................106 to facilitate and/or finance the transfer of,
2.7 Industrial sector..................................................................24
7.2 Legislative and institutional framework of climate or access to, environmentally-sound technologies...........170
2.8 Waste..................................................................................25
change policies and programmes......................................108 Annex 5. Acronyms...................................................................175
2.9 Housing stock [1] [11] .......................................................26
7.3 Provision of international climate finance through
2.10 Agriculture and forestry [12] .............................................26
official Development Assistance and
3. Greenhouse gas inventory information Other Official Flows.........................................................109
3.1 Summary tables..................................................................28 7.4 Looking ahead.................................................................. 112
3.2 Analysis of trends...............................................................30 7.5 Activities relating to transfer of and access to
technologies and capacity building................................... 112
3.3 National inventory system..................................................43
7.6 Methodological Approach for tracking of the
3.4 National registry.................................................................46
provision of financial, technological and
capacity-building support to non-Annex I Parties............ 113
I n t rodu c t i o n
change-related activity in Belgium. As de- year 2020 is provided to the UNFCCC. As
fined in the UNFCCC reporting guidelines endorsed in UNFCCC decision 2/CP.17,
for National Communications (decision 6/ Belgium has opted to submit its 5th Bien-
CP.25), the information has been subdivid- nial Report as an annex to this 8th National
ed into: Communication (Annex 2). The tables as
defined in the common tabular format for
–– National circumstances relevant to
the UNFCCC biennial reporting guidelines
greenhouse gas emissions and remov-
for developed country Parties (UNFCCC
als (section 2),
decision 19/CP.18) have been submitted
–– Greenhouse gas inventory information
to the UNFCCC by means of the electron-
(section 3),
ic reporting facility provided by the UN-
–– Policies and measures (section 4),
FCCC secretariat as required by UNFCCC
–– Projections and the total effects of poli-
decision 19/CP.18.
cies and measures (section 5),
–– Vulnerability assessment, climate In order to avoid unnecessary duplica-
change impacts and adaptation mea- tion of information, overlapping content
sures (section 6), between the 8th National Communication
–– Financial, technological and capaci- and the 5th Biennial Report has been lim-
ty-building support (section 7), ited as much as possible; sections of the
–– Research and systematic observation 5th Biennial Report contain mainly refer-
(section 8), ences to the corresponding sections of the
–– Education, training and public aware- 8th National Communication’s and/or CTF
ness (section 9). tables.
A summary table outlining the location
of supplementary information required
within this National Communication in ac-
cordance with Article 7, paragraph 2, of the
Kyoto Protocol is provided in Annex 1.
4
National circumstances relevant to greenhouse
gas emissions and removals
1. Exe c u t i v e
Belgium is a small country (30 689 km²) Belgium has a very open economy,
in north-western Europe. Belgium is high- situated at the heart of a zone of intense
ly urbanised and is the third most densely economic activity. The Belgian economy is
summary
populated country in Europe (375 inhabi- dominated by the services sector. Exports
tants/km² in 2021). of goods and services accounted for 80%
Belgium’s temperate maritime climate of GDP in 2020 and imports 79%.
is characterised by moderate temperatures. The gross domestic product amounted
The evolution of temperatures in the past to EUR 456.893 billion in 2020, but re-
century reveals an upward trend, a phe- corded a growth rate of -5.7% in the past
nomenon that has been accentuated in re- year due to the COVID-19 crisis. Prior
cent years. to this, Belgium’s gross domestic product
Belgium is a federal state composed had been constantly increasing since 1990
of three language-based communities and (with a small drop related to the financial
three regions, each with its own executive crisis in 2008-2009). At the same time,
and legislative bodies. GHG emissions were initially stabilised
Given Belgium's federal structure and (1990-2005), followed by a decreasing
the division of powers, several structures trend up to the present (-26.9% in 2020,
have been created to promote consultation compared to 1990, but only -20.1% in
and cooperation between the different lev- 2019 compared to 1990). The main drivers
els of power and to ensure consistency in for decoupling are: increased use of gas-
the action of the federal state and its en- eous fuels (decreased use of liquid and sol-
tities. The central coordination body with id fuels), higher energy efficiency, chang-
regard to national climate policy is the es in the structure of the economy (fewer
National Climate Commission. The cen- highly energy intensive industries such as
tral coordination body for energy is CON- the steel industry and more added value in
CERE-ENOVER. The two are increasing- sectors – services and commercial sectors
ly working together. – that are less energy-intensive).
5
In 2019, greenhouse gas emissions per accounted for 26.8% of the country's final Belgium is very high: one car for every Housing stock
GDP were 261 tons of CO2-eq. per million energy consumption in 2020. 89.8% of this two inhabitants). The majority of goods Since 1995, the number of buildings
euros at 2015 prices (Total UNFCCC excl. gas was used for energy purposes, of which being relocated over land are still being has increased by 14.5%. Over the same pe-
LULUCF (Land Use, Land-Use Change 33.8% was used in the residential sector. transported using road transport. Demand
riod, the number of residences increased by
and Forestry)) and 253 in 2020. for fossil fuels in the sector is expected to
Belgium has limited energy resources. 25.8%. Belgian housing stock is character-
continue to rise.
Its total primary energy production rep- ised by a high proportion of old buildings.
Energy resents approximately 35% of Belgium’s Natural gas is the main heating source. The
Energy intensity has been following a total primary energy consumption. Bel- Industry housing equipment rate of appliances us-
downward trend since 1990, reflecting the gium is consequently highly dependent Although the significance of the indus- ing energy continues to rise.
on other countries to obtain its supplies. trial sector (in particular heavy industry)
decoupling of economic growth from pri-
In 2020, 38.5% of Belgian energy produc- within the economy has declined since the
mary energy consumption.
tion consisted of nuclear energy. The share 1960s, it continues to be a relatively im- Agriculture
As far as the market share of the total of renewable fuels and waste amounts to portant component of Belgium’s economic The agriculture in Belgium specialises
final consumption is concerned, oil prod- 26.2%: during this decade, production has activity (almost 15% of GDP). in market-garden and horticultural crops,
ucts remain the dominant energy source increased by 181% compared to 2011. cereals, potatoes, sugar beets, livestock
(46.1%), followed by natural gas (26.8%) The main contributors towards green-
The dependency on fossil fuel imports and milk production. Although agricul-
and electricity (17.8%). house gas emissions are: energy combus-
tural land occupies the greater part of the
to meet domestic demand is very high. tion (mainly resulting from the production
territory (44.5%), the number of farms has
In 2020, the industrial sector was the In 2020, the ratio between net-imports of electricity and heat, but also from oil re-
continued to decrease in recent years. The
main consumer of primary energy (26.3%), and primary energy consumption stood at fining), industrial processes (mainly within
share of agriculture in the Belgian econo-
followed by the residential sector (20.8%) 78.1%. the chemical industry, mineral products
my is continuing to decline and now ac-
and transport (20.4%). The trend that took industry and metallurgy) and energy trans-
counts for less than 1% of GDP. Despite
place in the transport sector was totally un- formation (iron and steel industry, chemi-
Transport a high population density, forests and oth-
precedented however, its consumption de- cal industry, food and beverage processing
Belgium is crisscrossed by an import- er natural areas remain relatively stable
creasing by 15.8% compared to 2019. and cement plants).
ant network of waterways and a very dense (23.9% of the territory).
Although the measures taken in the communications network (roads and rail-
context of the fight against the coronavi- ways). Owing to Belgium’s location as a Waste
rus have had a particularly significant in- transit country, transport is a growing sec- Between 2004 and 2020, waste pro-
fluence on the consumption of petroleum tor. Road transport is the most energy-con- duction increased by 28%. Significant im-
products, the share of these products in the suming means of transport in Belgium. provements in waste treatment have helped
country's total final consumption remains The number of passenger cars is increas- bring about a sharp reduction in the amount
predominant (46.1% in 2020). Natural gas ing continuously (the motorisation rate in of waste put into landfills.
1. Executive summary 6
Greenhouse gas inventory information Agriculture represents 9% of the total
emissions, mainly of CH4 and N2O. Some
CO2 emissions. LULUCF is a net sink in
2020 as it is for the complete time series
CO2 emissions are caused by liming and but in constant decline since 1990. Emis-
urea consumption. Since 1990, emissions sions from this sector occur for CO2, CH4
from this sector have decreased by 19%, and N2O.
In Belgium, emissions of all gases have Compared to recent years (with similar
due to a decline in emissions from enteric
decreased by 26.9 % compared to 1990 degree days values), emissions from the In 2020, the waste sector contributed
fermentation (this is connected with lower
and 27.8% using 1995 as the base year for residential and tertiary sectors decreased around 1.1% to the national total. Emis-
livestock numbers but also with the shift
the fluorinated gases (excluding ‘land use, in 2020 although a number of indicators sions originated from waste incineration,
from dairy cattle to brood cattle) and from
land use-change and forestry’ - LULUCF) are rising such as the increase in residenc- solid waste disposal on land and waste-
agricultural soils (reduced use of synthetic
(see Figure 3.1). The largest contribution es and a greater number of employees in water handling. Emissions from this sec-
fertiliser and livestock reduction leading to
to total emissions is CO2, which account- the tertiary and institutional sectors. This tor have steadily declined and were 72 %
less nitrogen being excreted on pasture).
ed for 84.9% in 2020. Emissions of CH4 is due to a switch of fuels, better insulation below 1990 levels in 2020, mainly due to
account for the next largest share, at 6.7%, and milder years. However, the trend for Land Use, Land-use Change and For- the recovery and use of biogas from solid
and emissions of N2O make up a further the tertiary sector since 1990 continues to estry contain sinks as well as sources of waste disposals.
5.1%. be a net increase in emissions, due to the
development of activity in this sector.
In 2020, the energy sector contribut-
ed 72% to the total emissions (excluding Emissions caused by road transport Policies and measures
LULUCF) (see Figure 3.3). Since 1990, have been increasing continually since
these emissions have decreased by about 1990 on account of the increasing num-
26%. Energy industries and manufacturing ber of cars and of traffic that has become
industries are both responsible for almost more intense. Traffic growth, however, Within Belgium’s federal system, re- waste management. In the context of the
79% of this decrease. has slowed significantly in recent years sponsibilities and policy-making powers 6th Belgian state reform, they have also ob-
and emissions have stabilised since 2008 are shared between the Federal State and tained new fiscal responsibilities.
A switch from solid fuel to gaseous fu-
(maximum at 27 Mt CO2 eq.). Of course, the three Regions (the Walloon, Flemish
els can be observed in the electricity pro- The Federal state is responsible for
emissions in 2020 show a sharp decrease and Brussels-Capital Regions). Climate
duction sector and industry. This, together large parts of taxation policy. It is also re-
due to the COVID-19 crisis and its conse- change policies are therefore designed and
with the development of biomass fuels in sponsible for product policies (standards,
quences on mobility. implemented by the federal and regional
some sectors, has resulted in a lower CO2 fuel quality, labelling and performance
emission factor for a given level of energy Industrial processes and product use governments, which have set up their own
standards for household or industrial elec-
consumption. A more rational use of ener- make up the second-largest source of priorities and objectives within the scope
trical goods…). It is responsible for en-
gy is also developing but it often is accom- greenhouse gases in Belgium, amounting of their powers.
suring the security of the country’s ener-
panied by an increase in the use of elec- to 18% of the national total in 2020. Emis- Regions have major responsibilities in gy supply and for nuclear energy. It also
tricity, so its impact on actual emissions is sions of all seven direct greenhouse gases areas such as the rational use of energy, the supervises Belgium’s territorial waters,
generally harder to quantify. Finally, the have declined by 28% since 1990. All the promotion of renewable energy sources, which implies that it is also responsible for
closure of certain iron and steel works over sectors are involved but the metal industry public transport, transport infrastructure, the development of offshore wind farms.
the past few years has also led to a reduc- has experienced the most significant de- urban and rural planning, agriculture and
tion in emissions. crease.
1. Executive summary 7
Several instruments (strategies, plans)
have been put in place to supervise Bel-
Projections and the total effect of policies
gium’s commitments in the medium term
(2030) and long term (2050), with a view
and measures
to achieving the European objective of cli-
mate neutrality.
The projections described in the 8th ent sectors (industry, domestic, tertiary, period 2021-2030, followed by a slight de-
The National Energy and Climate Plan
National Communication are based on the transport, …) and results in sectoral energy crease in the period 2030-2040. The total
2021-2030, adopted in 2019, compiles the
2021 Belgian submission to the European projections. Within this approach, relations emissions in the WAM scenario show a
policies and measures elaborated by each
of the 4 decision-making entities. This is Commission in compliance with Article 18 between energy consumption, activity lev- steady decrease in the period 2021-2040.
the most detailed steering instrument avail- of Regulation (EU) 2018/1999. All imple- els and energy prices are assessed on a sec- These projections do not include emissions
able to carry out national climate policy. It mented and adopted (EU, federal, regional) toral level. The electricity production and or removals from LULUCF.
will soon be revised to take into account policies and measures, considered until the the bunker fuel emissions are modelled on Uncertainties concerning exogenous
the enhancement of European ambition. end of 2019, have been taken into account a national level. variables such as economic growth, cli-
in the ‘with existing measures’ (WEM) mate conditions and electricity imports ex-
scenario. Planned policies and measures or Sensitivity analyses have been per-
ist and their level will have an impact upon
targets have been integrated in a scenario formed in the case of some important pa-
the resulting greenhouse gas emissions,
with additional measures (WAM). Since rameters such as the number of degree-days
notably in the sectors covered by the EU
Belgium’s last biennial report and nation- and the importation of electricity.
ETS.
al communication, there have been some The projection results presented in this
changes in the modelling tools used by the The EU Effort Sharing Regulation, es-
report have been compared with the pre-
Walloon Region since the last reporting of tablishing binding annual greenhouse gas
vious reports (7th national Communication
the national communication and bienni- emission reductions by EU Member States
and 4th Biennial Report). The main differ-
al report, due to the development and the from 2021 to 2030, mentions a target of
ences can be explained by the different
first exploitation of “TIMES-Wal”, which -35% in 2030 compared to 2005 for Bel-
sectoral assumptions, resulting in a more
replaces EPM model. In addition, the input gium. With the WEM scenario, the emis-
ambitious WAM scenario in this report.
data for the other models was also updated. sion targets will be exceeded in all years
Except for electricity production and There was a clear decrease between of the period 2021-2030. In the WAM
bunker fuels, the reported projections are 1996 and 2019 in the total greenhouse gas scenario, the non-ETS objectives will not
the sum of the projections of the three re- emissions in the inventory (Figure 5.3) and be exceeded in any year. However, as the
gions (Flanders, Wallonia, Brussels-Cap- in 2020, the inventory shows a sharp de- projections (AR4) and the non-ETS targets
ital) which are calibrated on the regional cline due to the impact of the COVID-19 (AR5) are based on different GWP values,
energy balances. The regional approach crisis. However, the total emissions in the it should be noted that both datasets are not
starts from the demand side of the differ- WEM scenario show a clear increase in the yet fully comparable.
1. Executive summary 8
Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts In the context of development cooper-
ation, adaptation to climate change is one
and adaptation measures of the main focuses in the implementation
of programmes and projects (climate-relat-
ed factors to be taken into account during
design and follow-up, climate actions and
policy coherence) as well as in finance
In 2019-2020, Belgium reinforced its and adaptation needs in the framework (Least Developed Countries Fund, Adap-
efforts to achieve a climate-resilient soci- of the future National Environment and tation Fund, Global Environment Facility,
ety and environment. During the past few Health Action Plan (NEHAP)” have been Green Climate Fund and Flemish Climate
years, Belgium has been confronted with published in connection with the imple- Fund).
the effects of climate change, namely some mentation of the National Adaptation Plan.
severe periods of drought, fluvial and plu-
vial flooding and prolonged heat waves, Adaptation measures are already be-
which has led to an increased sense of ing implemented and mainstreaming is Financial resources and technology transfer
urgency to take action on climate change ongoing, that is in spatial planning, water
adaptation. management (drought and floods), coastal
area (coastal safety master plan and long-
The federal level and the three Regions term coastal vision), biodiversity (green- In 2019-2020, Belgium provided –– Contributions to bilateral projects
continued implementing the measures in blue networks, calls, tools), agriculture EUR 208 million of public support to de- mainly directed towards African part-
their adaptation plan, complemented by ner countries and Least Developed
(research, projects), forestry (resilient for- veloping country Parties (see CTF tables).
the National Adaptation Plan which aims Countries.
ests, observatories, expansion of forests), This financial, technological and capaci-
to strengthen the cooperation and develop
urban environment, transport, health,… ty-building support to non-Annex I Parties In parallel with its long-standing pro-
synergies between the different entities
Informing and raising awareness amongst mainly focused on: vision of public climate finance to devel-
with regard to adaptation. Efforts were
made by the regions to support local gov- Belgium’s population continues to be an
–– Adaptation and cross-cutting activities oping countries, Belgium also supports
ernments in the development and imple- important aspect.
as the predominant focus; the efforts of developing countries to im-
mentation of their adaptation plans. Further progress has been made in –– Providing of bilateral and multilateral plement low-emission, climate-resilient
As gaps in the available data and as- connection with the governance that takes support under the form of grants; projects and programmes (i) by providing
sessments were detected and new insights place between the regional and local level: –– Contributions mainly directed towards significant core funding to multilateral or-
led to new research questions, new re- by providing funds and tools and facilitat- Africa and Least Developed Countries ganisations and (ii) by mobilizing, through
search programmes were launched to im- ing the exchange of knowledge and good (LDCs); public means, private investments for cli-
prove the understanding of the effects of practices, regional governments encourage –– Contributions to climate-specific mul- mate-related projects in developing coun-
climate change and adaptation. The studies and support the cities and municipalities to tilateral funds (Green Climate Fund,
tries.
“Evaluation of the socio-economic impact sign the Covenant of Mayors, to develop Adaptation Fund, Least Developed
of climate change in Belgium” and “Taking local adaptation plans and to take action on Countries Fund, etc.) or specialised UN
into account the impact of climate change climate change adaptation. agencies;
1. Executive summary 9
Research Public awareness, education and training
The financial resources allocated to cli- Belgian research is addressing the This chapter is a non-exhaustive inven- or with closely related themes such as en-
mate research in Belgium have increased whole spectrum of climate-related issues tory of initiatives undertaken by (regional ergy saving, buildings, mobility and the
considerably since 2017; Belgian research and encompasses all temporal and spatial or federal) authorities, institutions (e.g. environment in general. This classification
has been better and better embedded in in- scales. universities) and non-governmental organ- may seem somewhat artificial, as climate
ternational research initiatives; the number isations that successfully reached a rather change is a transversal issue, leading to
Belgium is making an active contribu-
of publications has increased and more and large audience. In order to avoid a multi- overlaps between themes or activities.
tion to plans, programmes and support for
more climate-related data have been pro- tude of small-scale initiatives, actions un-
ground and space-based climate observing The Education and training section de-
duced and processed and are accessible dertaken by local communities, companies
systems that form a key mission of several scribes 24 activities, split into three cate-
today for further research or policy devel- or private persons have not been added.
Federal Scientific Institutions. gories: educational projects (mainly aimed
opments.
A short introduction to the enquiries at primary and secondary schools), higher
Climate observation facilities are also
If basic research aiming at reducing into the degree of awareness among the education, and international cooperation
being rolled out by coordinated networks
uncertainties on climate evolution and general public is followed by a short de- and education in southern countries.
of universities and research centres. These
involving academical scientists is still
mainly perform measurements linked to scription of 22 awareness-raising initia- Finally, 65 useful sources on the inter-
strongly supported in Belgium, an increase
the composition of the atmosphere, green- tives dealing solely with climate change, net are listed and shortly described. ■
can be observed in the support provided for
house gases and proxies.
the development of solution-oriented re-
search or policy-driven research conducted
by scientific experts and policy experts.
1. Executive summary 10
A brief overview of Belgium
2. N a t i o n a l
Surface area 30 689 km²
Capital Brussels
Head of State HM King Philippe
c i rcu m s t a n c e s
Prime Minister Mr Alexander De Croo
National languages Dutch, French and German
rel e v a n t t o
Currency Euro
GDP 2020 (current prices) 456.893 billion EUR
GDP growth rate 2020
-5.7 %
gre e n h o u s e g a s
(volume, variation from previous year)
Inactive population (2020) [1] 1 737 681
Agriculture
emissions and
2 916 million EUR
(Gross added value by sector at current prices, 2020)
Industry
67 409 million EUR
(Gross added value by sector at current prices, 2020)
11
2.1 Institutional structure nature conservation, credit, foreign trade,
and provincial, municipal and intermunic-
In the context of the sixth institution-
al reform, which entered into force in July
ipal administration. They are responsible 2014, new transfers of competence have
for scientific research and foreign relations taken place, leading to increased auton-
in the above-mentioned areas. omy for the federated entities. They ac-
2.1.1 Federal structure of the state 2.1.2 Division of powers
After becoming independent in 1830, The Federal State is responsible for key
Belgium gradually moved from a unitary policies such as foreign affairs (incl. de-
to a federal structure. Today, Belgium is a velopment cooperation), defence, justice, Figure 2.1 Belgium, a federal state
federal state composed of three communi- finance, social security and a considerable
ties and three regions. part of public health matters and internal BELGIUM COMMUNITIES REGIONS
affairs. It also exercises competences in the
The three communities are the Flemish
following areas (which are ‘mixed compe- FEDERAL STATE FLEMISH FLEMISH
Community, the French Community and COMMUNITY REGION
tences’, being exercised both at federal and
the German-speaking Community. The
regional or community level): economy,
three regions are the Flemish Region, the
transport, environment, energy, research,
Brussels-Capital Region and the Walloon
cities.
Region. The communities and regions par-
tially overlap. The French Community ex- The powers of the communities con-
ercises its authority in the Walloon Region cern matters relating to ‘individuals': cul-
with the exception of German-speaking ture (theatre, libraries, audio-visual, etc.), FRENCH BRUSSELS-CAPITAL
municipalities and in Brussels; the Flemish education, use of languages and matters COMMUNITY REGION
Community exercises its authority in the that can be ‘personalised’, including some
Flemish Region and in Brussels; the Ger- aspects of health policy (preventive and cu-
man-speaking Community exercises its au- rative medicine) and assistance to individ-
thority in the German-speaking municipal- uals (youth protection, social assistance,
ities of the Walloon Region (Figure 2.1). family assistance, reception of immigrants,
etc.). Communities are also responsible for
Each of the communities and regions
scientific research and international rela- GERMAN SPEAKING WALLOON REGION
has its own legislative and executive bod- COMMUNITY
tions in the areas under their authority.
ies. In Flanders, the community and re-
gional institutions have merged, so that Regions have powers in ‘territory-re-
there is only one Flemish Parliament and lated’ areas, in a broad sense. They are
one Flemish government (Figure 2.1). responsible for the economy, employ-
ment, agriculture, water policy, housing,
The Federal state, Communities and
public works, energy, transport (with the
Regions all enjoy equal legal status. They
exception of the national railway, SNCB/
intervene on an equal footing but in differ-
NMBS and Infrabel), environment, town
ent areas. Source: FPS Chancellery of the Prime Minister
and country planning, rural revitalisation,
On 1 January 2021, the population of ly, the Flemish Region makes up 57.7 % of Source: FPS Economy – FPS Economy - Directorate-General Statistics and Economic Information [1]
Belgium numbered 11 521 238 inhabitants. the population, the Walloon Region 31.7 %
This represents 2.6 % of the total popula- and the Brussels-Capital Region 10.6 %.
tion of the European Union (EU-27). (Bel- In 2020, the population of Belgium decrease in births by 2.9 %). Net interna- Belgium GHG intensity in 2020 (9.5
gium is the 8th most populated Member grew by 28 597 inhabitants, or 0.25 %. This tional migration was positive (+41 756), tonnes CO2-eq/capita – Total net emissions
State of the European Union). Belgium is is half of what it was in previous years, as in previous years. In 2020, there were with international aviation (EU NDC);
very densely populated. With an average when the growth rate was around 0.5 %. therefore more immigrants than emigrants. 10.5 tonnes CO2-eq/capita in 2019) was
density of 375 inhabitants/km² (2021), it is Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the natu- significantly lower than in 1990 (14.6
The declining birth rate, a marked im-
the third most densely populated country ral balance – the difference between births provement in medical care and a more se- tonnes CO2-eq/capita in 1990). It remains
in Europe. However, that density varies and deaths – in Belgium was in negative lective immigration policy have gradually higher than the CO2 intensity in the EU-27,
from one part of the country to another, figures for the first time since the 1940s (an led to a reduction in natural growth and to which decreased from 13.1 to 7.9 tonnes/
the north of the country being much more increase in the number of deaths by 16.6 % the ageing of the population. capita between 1990 and 2020 (8.9 tonnes
densely populated than the south. Current- compared to 2019 and at the same time, a CO2-eq/capita in 2019).
in Uccle
TEMPERATURE SNOW
–– A warming of 2.1°C is observed as an annual average between the –– Since the beginning of the 21st century: great variability from year to
middle of the 19th century and the last three decades. year, with the last six years being relatively snow-free.
–– The 6 warmest years occurred after 2005. DRYNESS
–– Since 1981: significant annual warming of +0.38°C on average per
decade. –– The duration of spring droughts has been increasing since 1981 (+1.5
–– Most significant warming (+0.45°C per decade) in winter. days per decade).
–– Highest summer temperature trend upwards (+0.8°C per decade). –– Combining the increase in the duration of spring droughts with the
–– A new all-time high of 39.7°C was set on 25 July 2019. observed decrease in cumulative rainfall during the same season, it
–– The annual number of high night-time temperatures (at least 15°C) is can be concluded that the intensity of spring droughts must also have
also increasing (+3.9 days per decade since 1981). tended to increase since the warming observed in our country to-
wards the end of the 1980s.
HEAT WAVES
WIND
–– More frequent since 1981 (+0.3 heat waves per decade).
–– More frequent in recent years, with at least one heat wave per year –– Annual decrease of the average wind speed of -0.1 m/s per decade
since 2015. since 1981.
–– Tendency to be longer (+2 days per decade) and more intense (+1°C/ SUNSHINE
day per decade).
–– Since 1981: trend towards an increase in annual sunshine duration
PRECIPITATION (+58 hours per decade), spring (+35 hours per decade) and summer
–– A 9 % increase in cumulative annual rainfall between the mid-19th (+20 hours per decade).
century and the last three decades. Since 1981, there has been a slight –– Since 1981: trend towards an increase in global solar radiation mea-
upward trend, but it is not significant. sured at the surface (+42 kWhm-² per decade). The improvement of
–– In spring, a decrease since 1981 (-9 mm per decade). This trend is the air quality in our regions, thanks to efforts to reduce the emission
explained by relatively wet springs during the 1980s, and then by of pollutants, seems to be at least partly responsible for the increase
mostly dry, and sometimes dry, and sometimes very dry springs since in solar energy reaching the surface.
the 1990s.
–– In summer and annually, the frequency of heavy daily rainfall (at
least 20 mm)) has increased since 1981 (+0.6 days and +0.5 days per
decade respectively).
–– The highest annual hourly precipitation amounts have increased
since 1981 (+3 mm per decade).
TEMPERATURE
–– Since 1890: average annual increase of +1.9°C.
–– Since 1954: annual warming of between +0.27°C and +0.33°C per decade for the aver-
age temperature, depending on the region.
PRECIPITATION
–– Since 1890: average increase in precipitation of around 15 %.
SNOW
–– Snowfall in the Ardennes has remained relatively low and stable since the 1990s, al-
though from the mid-2000s onwards it seems to be showing a slight recovery.
WIND
–– The average wind speed has tended to decrease over the last few decades and in par-
ticular since the beginning of the 21st century.
–– The intensity of storms, as well as their frequency, has not increased over the last three
decades, but rather has tended to decrease.
Annual values Climate normals Trend lines (trend since 1981: 0.4°C/decade)
Table 2.3 Primary energy production in Belgium in 2020 per energy source Table 2.4 Primary energy production in Belgium in 2020 per energy source
Source: Statbel
Number of vehicles
measures on this sector. [5] 6.2 % of the total fleet of personal cars 3000000
(318 090 licence plates); in 2020, 9.6 %
In 2020, consumption in this sector de-
(533 882 licence plates). [6]
creased by 15.8 % compared to 2019. No
other sector has experienced such a de- In 2019, 80.4 % of passenger transport 2000000
430000
410000
390000
Table 2.6 Evolution of motorised road mobility in 2017
370000
PUBLIC TRANSPORT
CARs RAILWAY 350000
(underground, tram, bus, coaches)
RELATIVE SHARE 330000
of passenger transport
81.0 % 11.2 % 7.7 %
(in passenger km) ( %) 310000
in 2017
in 2000 77.7 % 11.4 % 5.8 % 290000
270000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Source: Federal planning bureau [8]
Figure 2.8 Waste production by economic activity (2004-2020) Figure 2.9 Distribution of municipal waste treatment methods
40000
35000
500
(in thousands of tonnes)
30000 450
Waste production
25000 400
350
20000
Kg/inhabitant
300
15000
250
10000 200
5000 150
100
0
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 50
Construction 11051 13090 15442 16853 17133 18347 19573 22658 20728 0
Services 8972 9959 5024 6698 4635 4840 5403 4850 3817 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Households 5337 4745 4459 5866 5295 5419 5041 4885 5342
Collection Landfill (including incineration slag)
Industry 26467 31139 23410 31708 26611 29047 32866 34778 37758
Incineration with energy recovery Incineration without energy recovery
Agriculture 1187 362 281 199 165 312 269 258 417
Recycling Compost and fermentation
Source: Belgium statistics on surveys and administrative sources (OVAM (Public Waste Agency of Flanders), Brus-
sels Environment, DGARNE (Directorate-General Agriculture, Natural Resources and the Environment) and models.
Additional data and information: Eurostat Source: Belgium statistics based on surveys and administrative sources
Belgium counted 4 573 099 buildings natural gas (48.0 %) and fuel oil (36.7 %); Agriculture in Belgium, which is fa- market: agri-food accounted for 11.1 % of
in January 2020. Since 1995, the number however, there are large differences be- voured by fertile soil and a temperate Belgian exports in 2020. [12]
of buildings has increased by 14.5 %. Over tween regions. The share of heating in climate, specialises in market garden and One of the characteristics of the Bel-
the same period, the number of dwellings household energy consumption varies with horticultural crops, cereals, potatoes, sugar gian agricultural sector is the structural de-
increased by 25.8 % (5 557 016 units). The weather conditions, ranging from 70 % to beets, stock farming and milk production. crease in the number of farms, leading to
Belgian housing stock remains old. The 77 % since 2010. The rest of the energy Due to the country’s short coastline, fish- a concentration of land and means of pro-
age of the buildings varies from one re- consumed by households is used for light- ing has relatively limited importance as an duction. In forty years, the agricultural sec-
gion to another. In Flanders, 32.2 % of the ing and electrical appliances (12.8 %), wa- economic activity. Although farmland cov- tor has lost 68.3 % of its holdings. During
buildings were built after 1981, compared ter heating (11.9 %) and cooking (1.7 %). ers most of Belgium (44.5 % of the territo- the same period, the average area per farm
to 21.4 % in Wallonia and only 6.7 % in the As Belgium is a temperate country, the use ry), its surface area is shrinking and giving tripled from 12.5 ha to 38.0 ha. [12]
Brussels-Capital Region. of energy for cooling is very low (0.1 %). way to buildings.
[5]
In 2020, 2 494 farms were under organ-
In 2020, 77.2 % of households lived in As in other industrialised countries, the ic control. In relation to the total Belgian
a single-family house and 22.3 % in a flat Private households spent on average share of the Belgian agricultural sector in agriculture, this represents a little more
(source: EUROSTAT). 31.8 % of their budget for housing in 2020 gross value added has been eroded over the than one in fifteen farms. In terms of area,
In 2019, 73.2 % of the energy consumed (only 30.3 % in 2018), of which 4.5 % is past decades (0.8 % of GDP in 2020). Nev- the Useful Agricultural Area (UAA) under
by households is used for heating. The spent for gas (1.3 %), electricity (2.3 %) ertheless, coupled with the food industry, organic control corresponds to 7.2 % of the
main energy sources used for heating are and other fuels (0.9 %).[1] the agricultural sector remains a key export Belgian UAA. This proportion is higher
3. Gree n h o u s e
ommendations (decision 6/CP.25 and An-
notated Outline for Fifth National Com-
munications of Annex I Parties under the
i nfor m a t i o n to 2020.
Evolution of GHG emissions and re-
movals as well as GHG emissions and re-
movals in the main sectors from 1990 to
2020 are provided in CTF Table 1.
1
Expressed as CO2 equivalents, i.e. taking into ac-
count the overall warming effect of each of the
gases, which is used to evaluate the relative con-
tribution to global warming of the emission in the
atmosphere of a kg of specific greenhouse gas, as
opposed to the emission of a kg of CO2 and taking
into account their life spans and their respective ra-
diation powers (CO2= 1, CH4 = 25 and N2O = 298).
A kg of CH4 therefore has the same effect as 25kg
of CO2 over a 100-year period.
2
The data correspond to the submission of May
2022.
28
Figure 3.1 Belgium GHG emissions 1990-2020 (excl. LULUCF). Unit: Index point (base
year emissions = 100). For the fluorinated gases, the base year is 1995
110
106,7 104,5
105
104,2 101,0 100,8
102,7
100 98,7
101,0
100,7 100,4 99,6 100,2
100,0 96,8
99,9 100,2
98,8
Index (base year emission = 100)
95 94,3
94,3
90,7
90
85
85,7
81,7
82.6 80,7
79,0
80 79,4
81,6
77,9 79,8
79,6
75
72,2
70
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
3.2.1 General trends The major greenhouse gas in Belgium ly 38.4 %, 46.5 % and 35.4 %3 during the
Total greenhouse gas emissions (with- is carbon dioxide (CO2), which accounted same period.
out LULUCF) in Belgium amounted to for 84.9 % of total GHG emissions in 2020.
An overview of the contribution of the
106.4 Mt eq. CO2 in 2020 (CTF Table 1) Methane (CH4) accounts for 6.7 %, nitrous main sectors to Belgium greenhouse gas
and to 106.1 Mt eq. CO2 (with LULUCF). oxide (N2O) for 5.1 %, and fluorinated emissions is given in Figure 3.3. Manufac-
This represents a decrease of -26.9 % com- gases for 3.4 % (Figure 3.2). Emissions turing industry, energy industries, transport
pared to 1990 and -27.8 % compared to of CO2 decreased by 24.9 % during 1990- and space heating (residential) are the most
Base year emissions (with 1995 for F-gas- 2020, while CH4, N2O and fluorinated gas
es). emissions have dropped with respective- 3
Compared to 1995 emissions
Figure 3.2 Share of greenhouse gases in Belgium (2020) – (without LULUCF) Figure 3.3 Share of the main sectors in 2020 (without LULUCF)
Waste Others
Agriculture 1,1% 0,7% Energy Industries
HFCs PFCs SF6+NF3
11,2% 17,9%
N2O 0,2%
3,1% 0,1% Energy industries
Commercial
CH4 5,1% 4,9% Industry
6,7%
Transport
Industry (combustion) Residential
12,3%
Residential
13,8% Commercial
Agriculture (+ CRF 1.A.c)
Waste
“Others” includes “Fugitive Emissions from Fuels”, “Other Combustion” and “Solvent and Other Pro,duct Use”.
Combustion of agriculture are included in “Agriculture” sector.
-40 000 -35 000 -30 000 -25 000 -20 000 -15 000 -10 000 -5 000 0 5 000 The split between emissions report-
ed under the Effort Sharing Decision
(EC/406/2009) and emissions covered by
Absolute change (Gg CO2 eq.) Change in % the Emission trading Scheme (Directive
EC/2003/87) is presented in Table 3.1.
“Others” includes “Fugitive Emissions from Fuels”, “Other Combustion” and “Solvent and Other Product Use”.
Combustion of agriculture are included in “Agriculture” sector.
120
case in 2011 for one of the biggest refiner-
ies, for example. But 2020 emissions are
14 % under 2019 emissions.
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
by 128 % from 1990 to 2020 in this sector
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
while the increase is multiplied by almost
5 for all the manufacturing industries re-
flecting the development of this fuel since
Liquid fuels Solid fuels Gaseous fuel Biomass Other fossil fuels Total PJ the 2000s.
3.2.4.2 Chemicals
5 000
Despite the closure of two nitric acid
plants (one in 1995 and another in 2000),
the production of nitric acid in the two re- 0
maining plants increased by 54 % in 2020
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
compared to 1990 (after a sharp decline in
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
2009). In parallel, these plants have taken A. Mineral Industry D. Non-energy products from fuels and solvent use G. Other product manufacture and use (f-gas)
measures to reduce emissions from their B. Chemical industry E. Electronic industry (f-gas) H. Other
C. Metal industry F. Product uses as ODS substitutes (f-gas)
1991 and 2001) since these two years temperature are not included. The total number of
were very similar from a climatic point of degree days over a given period (month or year, for
view. Annual fluctuations are of course cli- example) are added together. Degree days enable
heating requirements to be assessed.
80%
Commercial (emissions) Commercial (consumption) Residential (emissions)
Residential (consumption) Degrés-jours (16,5°C)
70%
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
3. Greenhouse gas inventory information 37
3.2.6 Transport
Transport emissions accounted for Figure 3.11 Road transport emissions (according to the “reference approach”)
14.4 % of total GHG emissions in 1990 and traffic index (index: 1990 = 100 %)
and 20.4 % in 2020. This increasing share
is due to road transport, which represents
96.0 % of total emissions (included pipe-
350%
lines) by the sector in 2020.
Emissions from domestic navigation
are fairly stable and represent almost 1.7 % 300%
of total transport emissions in 2020. Emis-
sions from railways (0.3 % in 2020) seem
to have decreased since 1990, but in fact
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
2014 (the number of petrol engines (all
vehicles) dropped between 1990 and 2014 Gasoline (fossil fuels) Diesel oil (fossil fuels) Traffic - gasoline PC Traffic - diesel oil PC Traffic - HDV
(-15 %) while the number of diesel en-
gines tripled (+ 301 %) for the same peri-
6
Road freight traffic of Belgian and foreign trucks
carried out in Belgium
5000
4500
4000
Emissions (Gg CO2 -eq)
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
sult of fires).
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Solid waste disposal The remaining 53 % of GHG emissions
Wastewater treatment
4 500 0
Waste incineration without energy recovery originatesBiological
from three sources:
treatment of solidwaste
waste incin-
eration (21
% in 2020), wastewater treat-
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Waste incineration with energy recovery (non-biomass) Total waste (without CRF 1A1a)
4 000
Solid waste disposal Wastewater treatment
ment (27 %) and composting (5 %). Emis-
sions from waste incineration (sector 5C)
Waste incineration without energy recovery Biological treatment of solid waste
3 500 include mainly CO2 emissions from flaring
Waste incineration with energy recovery (non-biomass) Total waste (without CRF 1A1a)
activities (and post-combustion activities)
3 000
in the chemical industry, while emissions
Emissions ( Gg CO2 -eq )
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
eq).
Solid waste disposal Wastewater treatment
Waste incineration without energy recovery Biological treatment of solid waste
3. Greenhouse
Waste incineration gas inventory
with energy information
recovery (non-biomass) Total waste (without CRF 1A1a) 42
3.3 National inventory system
Only small changes have occurred 3.3.1 Overall responsibility for the Belgian bined to compile the national greenhouse Climate Commission, established by the
since the 7th National Communication and national inventory gas emission inventory. Since 1980, the Cooperation Agreement of 14 November
4th Biennial report. The agency designated as the “single three regions have been developing differ- 2002, before its submission to the secretar-
national entity with overall responsibility ent methodologies (depending on various iat of the United Nations Framework Con-
The national system in Belgium has
for the national inventory” (national com- external factors) for compiling their at- vention on Climate Change and to the Eu-
been updated for the submission to the
piler) is the Belgian Interregional Envi- mospheric emission inventories. Important ropean Commission, under the European
European Commission of 15 March 2022
ronment Agency CELINE-IRCEL7, estab- efforts were made to align these different Parliament and Council Regulation (EU)
and later for the submission to the UNF-
lished by the Cooperation Agreement of methodologies, especially for the most No 525/2013 concerning a Mechanism for
CCC-secretariat of 15 April 2022. During
18 May 1994 (modified by the Decision of important (key) sectors. At the same time, Monitoring and reporting greenhouse gas
the previous updates, Belgium’s main fo-
21 May 1995) on atmospheric emissions an effort was made to harmonise them, in emissions and for reporting other informa-
cus was on the jurisdictional changes in the
monitoring and data structuring. It includes order to ensure the consistency of the data tion at national and Union level relevant to
Flemish region since January 2021:
members from the three regions. and to establish the national inventory. climate change and repealing Decision No
1) The Flemish energy balance is being 280/2004/EC.
Coordination of the national inventory
set up by the new Flemish Agency of
and the harmonisation of the methodolo-
Energy and Climate (VEKA) instead of 3.3.2 Legal arrangements and regional
the VITO in the past. At the same time, gies are the ongoing tasks of the Working 3.3.3 Overview of institutional, legal and
agencies
VEKA became responsible for the cli- Group on «Emissions» of the Coordination procedural arrangements for compiling
In the Belgian federal context, major Committee for International Environmen-
mate and energy policy in this region responsibilities related to environment lie GHG inventory and supplementary
(instead of the Department of Environ- tal Policy (CCIEP), in which the different
with the regions. Compiling greenhouse information required under Article 7,
ment (AEKG) which was responsible actors decide how the regional data will be
gas emissions inventories is one of those paragraph 1, of the Kyoto Protocol
for climate policy before). aggregated into a national total, taking into
responsibilities. Detailed information re- account the specific characteristics and in- The Inter-ministerial Conference for
2) Some of the updates mainly focused on garding legal arrangements and inventory the Environment took a series of decisions
their organisation, their accreditation of terests of each region as well as the availa-
preparation can be found in chapters 1.2, ble resources. This working group consists that clarify the role and responsibilities of
the ETS-reporting and their approval of 1.3 and chapter 12 of the National Inven- of representatives of the 3 regions and of different entities, as regards the prepara-
the Brussels energy balances. tory Report. the federal public services. tion of the national GHG inventory. These
3) Other more limited changes related to
Each region implements the necessary decisions are detailed in the NIS.
the names of certain bodies and the up- The Belgian Interregional Environment
dating of persons responsible. means to establish their own emission Agency (CELINE - IRCEL) is responsi- Entities responsible for the perfor-
inventory in accordance with the IPCC ble for integrating the emission data from mance of the main functions of the Belgian
guidelines. The emission inventories of the inventories of the three regions and Inventory System, as well as main institu-
the three regions are subsequently com- for compiling the national inventory. The tional bodies involved in the decision-mak-
7
CELINE/IRCEL – Rue Gaucheret 92-94, 1030 National inventory report is than formal- ing process in relation to this system, are
Brussels +32 (0)2 227 57 02 ly submitted for approval to the National presented on next page.
3.4.1 The Belgian registry Each account within a national registry a) With regard to the data exchange, The following changes to the national
retains a unique account number com- each national registry connects to registry of Belgium have occurred since
The Belgian registry remains to be prising the identifier of the Party and a the ITL directly and establishes a the last submission in 2017.
maintained in the consolidated Union Reg- unique number within the Party where secure communication link through
istry operated by the European Commis- the account is maintained; a consolidated communication
sion. Apart from the Belgian registry, the –– Kyoto transactions continue to be for- channel (VPN tunnel);
Union Registry also ensures the operation warded to and checked by the UNF- b) The ITL remains responsible for au-
of the national registries of the other EU CCC Independent Transaction Log thenticating the national registries
Member States as well as the registries of (ITL), which remains responsible for and takes the full and final record
Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway in a verifying the accuracy and validity of of all transactions involving Kyo-
consolidated manner in accordance with those transactions; to units and other administrative
all relevant decisions applicable to the es- –– The transaction log and registries con- processes in such a way that those
tablishment of Party registries - in particu- tinue to reconcile their data with each actions cannot be disputed or repu-
lar Decision 13/CMP.1 and Decision 24/ other in order to ensure data consis-
diated;
CP.8. The Union Registry ensures that the tency and to facilitate the automated
c) With regard to data storage, the
following conditions are met: checks of the ITL;
consolidated platform continues to
–– The requirements of paragraphs 44 to
–– Each Party retains the organisation des- guarantee that data is kept confiden-
48 of the Annex to Decision 13/CMP.1
ignated as its registry administrator to on making non-confidential informa- tial and protected against unautho-
maintain the national registry of that tion accessible to the public is fulfilled rised manipulation;
Party and remains responsible for all by each Party by means of a public- d) The data storage architecture also
the obligations of Parties to be fulfilled ly available web page hosted by the ensures that the data pertaining to a
through registries; Union registry; national registry are distinguishable
–– Each Kyoto unit issued by the Parties –– All registries reside on a consolidated and uniquely identifiable from the
in such a consolidated system is issued IT platform sharing the same infra- data pertaining to other consolidat-
by one of the constituent Parties and structure technologies. The chosen ar- ed national registries;
continues to carry the Party of origin chitecture implements procedures to e) In addition, each consolidated na-
identifier in its unique serial number; ensure that the consolidated national tional registry retains a distinct user
–– Each Party retains its own set of nation- registries are uniquely identifiable, pro- access entry point (URL) and a dis-
al accounts as required by paragraph 21 tected and distinguishable from each tinct set of authorisation and config-
of the Annex to Decision 15/CMP.1. other, notably: uration rules.
9
https://www.climateregistry.be/en/registry/le-
gal-framework.htm
4.1.1 Overall policy context first integrated National Energy and Cli-
In accordance with the distribution of mate Progress Report (cf. chapter 4.1.3).
competences in Belgium, climate change
4. P ol i c i e s
A National Energy and Climate Plan
policies and measures are developed by (NECP, cf. chapter 4.1.2.5) for the period
the Federal State and the three regions 2021-2030 was adopted by the concerta-
an d m ea s u re s
(Wallonia, Flanders, Brussels-Capital tion committee in December 2019. The
Region). Belgian climate and energy pol- energy and climate plans of the different
icy is shaped within the framework of Belgian entities have been integrated with-
the European Climate Law (Regulation in the NECP. It was drawn up jointly by a
EU/2021/1119), which is directly applica- steering group established for that purpose
ble to Belgium. within the Belgian energy policy coordina-
tion platform (CONCERE/ENOVER) and
Cooperation bodies have been set up to
the NCC, which is composed of represen-
harmonise and foster synergies between the
tatives of the climate and energy adminis-
policies and measures implemented by the
trations of the three regions and the Federal
various authorities. The National Climate
State.
Commission (NCC), which was estab-
lished by a cooperation agreement1,plays a The primary aim of the NECP is to meet
central role in this regard. Belgium’s commitments under the Gover-
nance Regulation 2018/1999/EU. This in-
In March 2021, an update of the Bel-
cludes climate objectives established under
gian national system for policies and mea-
the European Union’s Effort-Sharing Reg-
sures and projections was reported, which ulation EU/2018/842 as well as the contri-
describes Belgium’s PAMs and Projections butions defined under the Energy Efficien-
systems and QA/QC programmes in ap- cy (EU/2018/2002) and Renewable Energy
plication of Article 39 of the Governance (EU/2018/2001) Directives. This plan will
Regulation. An update of the system is ex- be updated in 2023-24, also in line with the
pected in March 2023, in the context of the provisions of the Governance Regulation.
1
Accord de coopération entre l’Etat fédéral, la Ré- Belgium’s 2030 commitments will be
gion flamande, la Région wallonne et la Région
de Bruxelles-Capitale relatif à l’établissement, subject to internal burden sharing among
l’exécution et le suivi d’un Plan national Climat, the three Belgian regions and the Federal
ainsi que l’établissement de rapports, dans le cadre
de la Convention-cadre des Nations Unies sur les State (comparable with the Burden Shar-
Changements climatiques et du Protocole de Kyoto ing agreement of 12 February 2018 for the
49
2013-2020 period). Negotiations on the the context of the EU Climate and Energy
Burden Sharing agreement for 2021-2030 package 2020. This joint target has been
are still ongoing, but a first partial political shared between two sub-targets, for emis-
agreement has already been concluded2. sions in sectors covered by the EU Emis- Table 4.1 Synthesis of European objectives
sion trading system (ETS), and for sectors
For the period up to 2050, Belgium has
outside the ETS. The reduction target for
set its sights on achieving the European ob- European
jective of climate neutrality as expressed in ETS was established for the EU as a whole, 2020 Climate 2030 Climate Climate Law and
the European Climate Law that applies to while national targets were set up for non- and Energy and Energy proposed Climate Law
Belgium (cf. chapter 4.1.2.4). ETS sectors (see further details in section package framework Fit for 55
below). package
Year of proposal [0] 2009 2014 2020 2020
4.1.2 National targets for GHG mitigation Time horizon 2020 2030 2030 2050
and long-term mitigation strategies 4.1.2.2 European Climate and Energy
framework Reference year 1990 or 2005 1990 or 2005 1990 or 2005 N/A
4.1.2.1 UNFCCC commitment Total reduction of Climate
As a Member State of the European -20% (1990) -40% (1990) -55% net (1990)
GHG emissions neutrality
Belgium ratified the United Nations Union, Belgium is committed to provide - ETS [1] -21% (2005) -43% (2005) -61% (2005)
Framework Convention on Climate its contribution to the objectives of EU: - non ETS -10% (2005) [2] -30% (2005) [3] -40% (2005)
Change (UNFCCC), the Kyoto Protocol
Three processes to reinforce the ob- 2009/28/EC
and the Paris Agreement in 1996, 2002 and 2009/29/EC EU 2018/842
jectives in these areas took place in 2009,
2017 respectively. EU Reference 2009/31/EC EU 2018/841 EU 2021/1119
2014 and finally 2020.
406/2009/EC EU 2003/87
2nd Kyoto commitment period: The objectives are evolving, as shown 2003/87/EC
2013‑2020 in the tables presented in Tables 4.1 and RES [4] 20% [5] -32% 40%
For the second commitment period 4.2. LULUCF:
of the KP (2013-2020), EU countries (to- not included no debit rule 310 Mt
In March 2021, an update of the Bel- removals
gether with Iceland) have agreed to jointly EE [6] -20% -32.5% -36/39%
gian national system for policies and mea-
meet a 20% reduction target compared to
sures and projections was reported, which
1990 (in line with the EU's domestic tar- [0] The year of the proposals is indicative because on binding annual greenhouse gas emission re-
describes Belgium’s PAMs and Projections it is often at the start of a simple communica- ductions by Member States from 2021 to 2030
get of 20% by 2020). The 20% emission
systems and QA/QC programmes in ap- tion. The various objectives then evolve over the contributing to climate action to meet commit-
reduction target by 2020 is unconditional course of the effective decisions in the follow- ments under the Paris Agreement and amending
plication of Article 39 of the Governance
and supported by legislation in place in ing years. Regulation (EU) No 525/2013. The EU target
Regulation. [1] European Emissions Trading System (Direc- includes the contribution of the United King-
tives 2003/87/EC and 2009/29/EC). It consti- dom.
2
This agreement relates to the distribution of the The Governance Regulation (EU) tutes a key instrument to help energy-intensive [4] Part of renewable energy sources in gross final
2021 and 2022 revenues from the auctioning of the sectors to improve their energy efficiency while energy demand
2018/1999 entered into force on 24 De- optimizing costs [5] Renewable energy Directive 2009/28/EC
ETS system, the dissolution of the “climate respon-
sibility mechanism” and the sharing of the amounts cember 2018. The governance mechanism [2] Effort Sharing Decision 406/2009/EC [6] Energy efficiency: compared to the projected
relating thereto, the guarantee of a minimum Bel- is based on integrated NECPs covering [3] Regulation (EU) 2018/842 of the European gross inland energy consumption (Primes 2007)
gian objective in terms of renewable energies and Parliament and of the Council of 30 May 2018
international climate finance for the period 2021- ten-year periods, the first starting in 2021
2024. and encompassing the period up to 2030. It
4. Policies and measures 50
also includes the need for EU and national jectives and the 4th federal sustainable
long-term strategies, as well as integrated development plan adopted the 1 Octo-
reporting, monitoring and data publication. ber 2021 for the 5 next years;
Member States had to submit their draft –– Flanders: in November 2021 the fourth
national energy and climate plans by the Flemish strategy for sustainable devel-
end of 2018 and their final plans by the opment was adopted;
end of 2019. An update of the NECPs is –– Wallonia: the third Walloon strategy for
expected in by June 2023 (draft) and June sustainable development was adopted
Table 4.2 Synthesis of Belgian objectives 2024 (final version). The 2030 targets still in September 2022;
need to be shared between the 4 authori- –– Brussels-Capital Region: the regional
ties in a new ‘burden sharing’ agreement sustainable development plan;
2030 Climate
2020 Climate and Proposal: between all 4 authorities. –– German-speaking Community: the sec-
and Energy LT strategy
Energy package
framework
Fit for 55 ond regional development plan.
An essential element of Belgium’s
Time horizon 2020 2030 2030 2050 climate policy relies upon the European
Total reduction of No national Emissions Trading System (Directives 4.1.2.4 Belgian long-term strategies
GHG emissions objective yet 2003/87/EC and 2009/29/EC). It consti-
Following the European Climate Law,
(No national (No national (No national (No national tutes a key instrument to help several key
- ETS [1] the climate neutrality target on the EU-lev-
objective) objective) objective) objective) sectors to improve their energy efficiency
el by 2050 also covers Belgium. In Feb-
-85%--87% while optimising costs namely energy in-
-15% (ref. 2005) ruary 2020, Belgium submitted its nation-
- non ETS -35% (ref. 2005) -47% (ref. 2005) (ref. 2005; tensive industry, electricity production and
[2] al “long-term strategy” to the European
projection) aviation.
Commission. This was communicated to
2009/28/EC EU 2018/2001
2009/29/EC EU 2018/2002
A single EU-wide cap on ETS emis- the UNFCCC secretariat by 10 December
EU Reference EU 2021/1119 sions applies since 2013. In Belgium, the 2020.
2009/31/EC EU 2018/841
406/2009/EC EU 2018/842 regions are responsible for the implemen-
The strategy includes several emissions
RES [3] 13% [4] tation of the ETS and for monitoring of
reduction objectives for 2050 and details a
LULUCF: increase of the ETS emissions.
not included no-debit rule variety of supporting measures across the
removals sink by 320 kt electricity, industry, building, transport,
15% PEC, 12% 4.1.2.3 Belgian sustainable development agriculture and waste sectors. The strategy
EE -18%
FEC strategies is based on the long-term strategies of the
regional governments and specifies sever-
[1] An essential element of Belgium’s climate poli- [2] Effort Sharing Decision 406/2009/EC Different strategies in relation to sus-
cy relies upon the European Emissions Trading [3] Part of renewable energy sources in gross final al areas of action for the federal govern-
tainable development have been adopted
System (Directives 2003/87/EC and 2009/29/ energy demand ment. The Long-term Strategy of Wallonia
EC). It constitutes a key instrument to help en- [4] Renewable energy Directive 2009/28/EC by the respective levels of power:
ergy-intensive sectors to improve their energy aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050
efficiency while optimising costs –– Federal State: the Long-term Vision for through a reduction of GHG emissions
Sustainable Development adopted in by 95% compared to 1990, supplemented
2013 which identifies 55 long-term ob- by Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Stor-
4. Policies and measures 51
age (CCUS) and negative emissions. The main objectives of which are shown in Ta-
Table 4.3 Belgium’s estimated emission reductions Long-term Strategy of Flanders aims to ble 4.4.
reduce GHG emissions from non-ETS sec-
With the adoption of the EU Climate
tors by 85% by 2050 compared to 2005,
Emission source Reduction in 2050 versus 2005 Law, the EU objective for 2030 was further
with the ambition to move towards carbon
Electricity -100% increased to a net reduction of 55% com-
neutrality. The Climate Ordinance of the
Transport -100% pared to 1990. Negotiations on the Fit for
Brussels-Capital Region aims to reduce
Industry (non-ETS) -76% to -83% 55 package of legislative proposals which
GHG emissions by 90% by 2050 com-
Buildings -89% to -91%
implements this 55%-objective are still on-
pared to 2005.
going. The Belgian targets will therefore
Agriculture -45% to -51%
Table 4.3 summarises the (range of) es- have to be modified and the PAMs will
Waste -95% to -98%
timated emission reductions at the national have to be strengthened in a revised NECP.
Total non-ETS -85% to -87% level.
Federal State
Although the strategy is intended to put
Belgium on a path that supports achieve- In accordance with the Cooperation
ment of the Paris Agreement’s goals, the Agreement on the national burden-shar-
strategy does not include an overall long- ing 2013-2020, the federal government is
Table 4.4 Summary table of the main objectives, policies and measures term national emission reduction target in committed to pursue existing policies and
of the BE NECP 2050, as ETS is not included in all regional measures allowing a total emission reduc-
strategies. tion of 15 250 kt CO2 eq for 2013-2020 and
to implement new policies and measures
Dimension 2030 objective Remarks The Consultation Committee (“Comité
resulting in an additional reduction of at
de concertation”/”Overlegcomité”) con-
Decarbonisation least 7 000 kt CO2 eq for the period 2016-
siders the national strategy as a minimum
GHG-ESR -35% compared to 2005 2020. A set of new federal PAMs was iden-
commitment and has undertaken to update
LULUCF No debit tified, which includes following PAMs:
it on a regular basis. At this stage, no up-
positive mobility allocations, incentives
RES 17.5% of gross final energy consumption date has been scheduled.
for electric bicycles, energy saving in rail-
Energy efficiency ways as well as the implementation of new
Primary energy i.e. -15% compared to BAU Primes 2007 in 4.1.2.5 Belgian National Energy EU legislative instruments in the field of
42.7 Mtoe
consumption 2030 and Climate Plan product policy and fluorinated gases.
Final energy i.e. -12% compared to BAU Primes 2007 in NECP 2021-2030 In the updates of the NECP, the federal
35.2 Mtoe
consumption 2030 government agreement expressed its com-
In order to achieve its national target
Cumulative amount mitment to align its contribution with the
under the Effort Sharing Regulation of
of energy savings -55% target by 2030 by means of an action
185 TWh -35% (compared to 2005), as well as ob-
(Article 7 of the Energy plan and, to that end, is taking the meas-
jectives regarding renewable energy and
Efficiency Directive) ures for which it is responsible.
energy efficiency, Belgium adopted its
NECP 2021-2030 in December 2019, the
4. Policies and measures 52
In this context, the federal government framework for developing hydrogen in –– The Flemish Adaptation Plan (VAP): plan will be implemented in the coming
wants to raise the level of ambition embod- the energy transition, the establishment the purpose of the VAP was to ad- years. It also contains provisions regarding
ied within the federal climate policy and of a sustainable financing strategy, the dress Flanders’ vulnerability to climate annual progress reports, the involvement
commits itself to: circular economy initiatives, etc. change and subsequently improve its of stakeholders and the upgrade planned
ability to defend against its effects. in 2023-24. In March 2022, the Flemish
1. Implement as soon as possible all pol- As input to the revision of the feder-
Government took additional measures in
icies and measures included in the fed- al contribution to the NECP, the general An English summary of the VKP 2013-
relation to renewable energy as a response
eral contribution to the current NEPP public will be consulted. A national pub- 2020 is available online.
to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These
2021-2030. lic enquiry was already held during the
The VMP was a strategic policy plan additional measures will be included in the
2. Develop and implement enhanced and preparation of the NECP 2021-2030. Once
with measures for the non-ETS sectors update of the Flemish Energy and Climate
new policies and measures that aim to again, the choice will be made to organ-
in the Flemish Region from all relevant Plan in 2023-24.
achieve additional emission reductions ise a national public enquiry with the inte-
Flemish policy fields and was linked to
in the non-ETS sector. These strength- gration of a series of questions regarding
the Flemish government’s broader policy. Walloon Region
ened or new policies and measures federal matters. If not, a separate federal
The plan contained actions from all the
will include the greening of taxation public enquiry will be set up. Selected In Wallonia, air quality and climate
relevant areas of competence. It contained
(including the reform of the company stakeholders will be consulted by seeking change policies are the object of a Walloon
Flanders’ contribution to the European and
car tax regime), the climate bonus (in recommendations from the representative Air-Climate-Energy Plan notably aiming
international commitments for the period
line with European decision making), advisory councils as well as by means of at the compliance with the commitments
2013-2020.
transport (including the development a multi-level climate and energy dialogue of Wallonia in the framework of the Kyoto
of a regime for carbon neutral fuels), named climate round tables. These round For the period 2021-2030, the Flemish Protocol. Measures are implemented and
buildings, and product standards; tables will be organised on specific federal Government adopted the Flemish Energy monitored by the respective administra-
3. Strengthen existing measures or devel- themes and will involve stakeholders, ex- and Climate Plan, which was then incor- tions in charge of those plans. The Walloon
op new ones to support the reduction perts and the responsible administrations. porated into the National Energy and Cli- Agency for Air and Climate is in charge
of emissions in the ETS sector during mate Plan. In November 2021, the Flemish of the coordination, covering all aspects
the period 2021-2030, in particular by Flemish Region Government agreed on a series of addi- of those plans in relation with air quality
increasing power generation capacity tional measures that would further reduce and climate change. Regional Ministers are
In June 2013, the Flemish Government
in the North Sea and phasing out fossil greenhouse gas emissions within the Flem- regularly informed of implementations and
formally adopted its “Flemish Climate Pol-
fuel subsidies, preferably in the Euro- ish Region. The greenhouse gas reduction progress.
icy Plan 2013-2020”, or “Vlaams Klimaat-
pean context; target was raised to a reduction of 40%
beleidsplan/VKP 2013-2020”. The plan The current plan adopted covered the
4. Put in place enabling policies and mea- by 2030 (compared to 2005), in the case
consisted of an overall framework and two period 2016-2022. A new Plan, covering
sures that contribute to creating an en- of emissions not included within the EU’s
separate but closely related sections: the period 2021-2030 is under construction
abling framework to fully realise the Emission Trading System.
on the basis of the NECP, of citizens’ pro-
potential of the federal and regional –– The Flemish Mitigation Plan (VMP):
The Flemish Energy and Climate Plan posals (an assembly of 50 randomly select-
emission reduction measures. These the purpose of the VMP was to reduce
is recognised as a transversal policy pro- ed citizens, who made 168 proposals to the
measures concern in particular the emissions of greenhouse gases in Flan-
gramme. In December 2021, the Flemish Walloon Minister of Climate) and various
strengthening of the electricity trans- ders between 2013 and 2020 as a means
Government adopted the Framework of sectoral consultations.
mission network, the establishment of a of combating climate change.
Arrangements, which lays down how the
4. Policies and measures 53
Brussels Capital Region following: a reduction of its total direct 4.1.3 System for monitoring and evaluation Methodologies vary depending on the
GHG emissions (i.e. ETS + non-ETS) of of policies and measures domain targeted and the availability of
a) Brussels National Energy & Climate at least -40% for 2030, -67 % for 2040 and data, but are harmonised as much as pos-
The national system for policies and
Plan (NECP) -90% for 2050, in comparison with 2005; sible among the different entities, in order
measures and projections represents the in-
On the 24 October 2019, the Gov- a comparable reduction trajectory for its stitutional, legal, and procedural arrange- to ensure comparability and the ability to
ernment of the Brussels Capital Region indirect emissions of GHG, i.e. emissions ments established for reporting on policies identify the most efficient measures.
adopted its contribution to the Belgian produced outside the regional territory by and measures and projections of anthropo- To that end, the National Climate Com-
National Energy and Climate Plan. This its activities, by 2050. The mission of the genic emissions by sources and removals mission has created an ad-hoc working
contribution, which is included in the Bel- committee of climate experts, made up of by sinks of greenhouse gases not controlled group (WG PAMs), gathering representa-
gian NECP (see above, aims, by 2030, to scientific and independent experts, is to by the Montreal Protocol, in accordance tives of each entity and various administra-
achieve at least a reduction in final energy assess the adequacy of regional policies with Article 39 of the EU Governance Reg- tions concerned by elements of the NECP.
consumption of at least 21% (compared and measures with regard to climate objec- ulation (2018/1999). It seeks to ensure the In particular, the group integrates repre-
to 2005), and 40.8% of greenhouse gases tives, through the drafting of an annual re- timeliness, transparency, accuracy, consis- sentatives of the energy administrations
emissions (also compared to 2005). port evaluating the contribution of regional tency, comparability and completeness of in charge of monitoring and reporting the
public policies to medium-term climate the information on policies and measures
b) Brussels’ climate ordinance and the energy efficiency action plan established in
objectives. and projections reported by Belgium pur-
Air-Climate-Energy Plan the framework of Directives 2006/32/EC
The ACEP currently in force, which suant to Article 18(1)(a) and Article 18(1) 2012/27/EU and 2018/2001/EU relative to
To meet all the challenges related to (b) of the Governance Regulation (Gov-
was adopted in 2016, recalls the Brus- energy efficiency and services, to ensure
energy consumption, renewable energy, Reg). A full and detailed description of the
sels-Capital Region objectives for 2025 a necessary harmonisation of methodolo-
climate change and air quality, the Brus- national system is given in the report of
and is intended to set up the measures to gies, hypotheses and parameters between
sels-Capital Region has developed an in- March 2021 “Reporting on national system
be implemented in 2020 with regard to climate and energy policies quantifications.
tegrated approach which has already been for policies and measures, and projections”
energy (including renewable energy), cli-
expressed in a regulatory document (Brus- under Regulation (EU) 2018/1999 on the
mate change mitigation and adaptation and Federal State
sels Air, Climate and Energy control Code Governance of the Energy Union and Cli-
air quality. The plan defines 144 actions
– COBRACE; see NC7 for more details) Successive studies have been com-
into 64 measures which are declined into mate Action. An update of the system is
and its related plan: the so-called Air-Cli- missioned to quantify the impact of fed-
10 areas of focus: building, transportation, expected in March 2023 in the framework
mate-Energy Plan (ACEP). eral measures in terms of greenhouse gas
renewable energy, economy, global city of the first integrated National Energy and
emission reductions. These studies evalu-
The most recent modification of the planning, consumption, social dimension, Climate Progress Report.
ated the effect of the federal measures on
COBRACE consists of the climate ordi- climate change adaptation, air surveillance In accordance with the cooperation expected emission reductions up to 2020
nance of 17 June 2021, which includes and international mechanisms. It is cur- agreement of 14 November 2002, the Re- and estimated the remaining impact up to
into the Code new ambitious binding cli- rently being revised and its ambition will gions and the Federal State are committed 2050 assuming the measure being withheld
mate objectives for 2030, 2040 and 2050, be increased to contribute to the FF55 dy- to evaluating the progress and implemen- after 2020.3 The socioeconomic impact of
a new committee of independent climate namics energy and climate; its content will tation of their policies and measures in a some federal PAMs has also been evalu-
experts, and defines the articulation be- be integrated into the update of the Nation- harmonised way, including by estimating ated. The most recent study (“Update of
tween the air-climate energy plan and the al Energy and Climate Plan to be delivered their impact in terms of GHG emission re-
National energy and climate plan (NECP in June 2023 (draft) and June 2024 (final). ductions. See the different reports on http://ww.climat.be/
3
4. Policies and measures 54
the impact assessment of federal Policies Flemish Region Walloon Region
and Measures”, ICEDD - Gauss - TML –
By means of a progress report, the The Walloon region has recently ac-
VITO) was finalised in June 2021. The so-
Flemish Government is informed annually quired a centralised project management
cio-economic aspect in that regard was not
about the progress of the Flemish Energy tool. Each project carried out by the Wal-
especially developed, as the priority was
and Climate Plan (VEKP 2021-2030), the loon administration may be described in
given to the methodology for estimating
evolution of the Flemish greenhouse gas the form of indicators. These indicators
emission reductions from new PAMs and
emissions and the progress of the objec- will be useful as a means of systematis-
updating old ones. Future studies may pro-
tives and measures. ing and simplifying data collection. This
vide further information in that regard.
should eventually make it possible for
The VEKP 2021 progress report (ap-
In 2021, the Federal Government has the measures and actions implemented in
proved on 16 July 2021) is structured in
put in place a governance framework with the Walloon region to be monitored more
two major parts:
the objectives to confirm and operation- closely.
alise the government's climate ambition, to –– an analysis of the evolution of green-
mainstream climate within its public poli- house gas emissions in the Flemish Re- Brussels Region
cy and to establish of a governance frame- gion,
The Climate Ordinance of 17 June
work with half-yearly evaluation based on –– a state of affairs regarding the sub-
2021 significantly strengthens regional cli-
roadmaps. These roadmaps are drawn up stantive progress of the measures for
mate governance by integrating new provi-
in consultation between the ministers and non-ETS sectors and LULUCF from
sions into COBRACE. These changes in-
departments concerned, according to an the Flemish Energy and Climate Plan
clude setting targets for reducing direct and
iterative process. The monitoring cycle 2021-2030 (VEKP). The appendix to
indirect regional greenhouse gas emissions
seeks to provide a status of progress every the progress report contains more de-
and provides the region with a committee
6 months, based on monitoring tables on tailed information per VEKP measure,
of climate experts. It provides reports as-
the one hand and written progress reports including the status, progress and out-
sessing the contribution of regional public
on the other, which will lead to the drawing look for the coming year.
policies to climate objectives, including
up of a public summary report that consoli-
A new progress report is being pre- recommendations. This reports, once the
dates the content of those progress reports.
pared in the autumn of 2022. It will serve committee in place, will be available to the
The summary report is sent to the parlia-
as the basis for the Flemish contribution Brussels government and parliament on
ment and to advisory bodies and should
to the first integrated National Energy and 31 March each year.
serve as an input during a possible revision
Climate Progress Report in 2023.
and/or reinforcement of the measures by
the Council of Ministers three months after
its publication. The first synthesis report
2022 is now available (FR/NL).
4. Policies and measures 55
4.2 Domestic and regional programmes and/ 4.2.1.3 Mechanism for increasing
awareness of climate responsibility among
tween Belgium domestic law and interna-
tional and European law. This right is now
or legislative arrangements and enforcement the Regions for the building sector extended more specifically to Belgium’s
international obligations under the UNFC-
and administrative procedures For more explanation, see chapter
4.2.1.3 in NC7.
CC and its Protocols (Article 16(4) of the
Special Institutional Reform Law of 8 Au-
The recent political agreement con- gust 1980). In principle, this right enables
cluded on 14 September 2022 provides for the Federal State, under strict conditions,
4.2.1 Description of domestic legislative This Agreement also originates from the abolition of the mechanism, the effec- to substitute its action for the non-action
arrangements to meet the Kyoto the obligation to apply European Deci- tive implementation of which has proved of a federal entity when it is the subject of
Protocol commitments sion 280/2004/EC (replaced by Regulation impossible. A solution to distribute the a non-compliance assessment reported by
According to the Kyoto Protocol re- (EU) No 525/2013 or MMR, then by Reg- amounts blocked so far has been found, a relevant body under the UNFCCC or its
porting guidelines (paragraph 37), Bel- ulation (EU) No 2018/1999 or Governance which deviates from the distribution pro- Protocols. This mechanism also applies to
gium must draw up a report describing Regulation) establishing the mechanism vided for by the mechanism. European law obligations aiming at imple-
all the domestic and regional legislative for monitoring and reporting greenhouse menting the UNFCCC and its Protocols.
arrangements and all the enforcement gas emissions in the European Community
and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol. 4.2.1.4 Substitution right for international
and administrative procedures to be put
obligations under the UNFCCC and its 4.2.2 Access to information
in place, how they are implemented and And precisely, as requested by Article Protocols Public access to environmental infor-
which procedures apply for addressing 39 of the Governance Regulation, Belgium
cases of non-compliance under the Belgian The ‘substitution right’ is a mechanism mation in Belgium, including legislative
has set up a national system for policies
legal framework. introduced into Belgium law, with the aim instruments, policies and measures devel-
and measures and projections.
of ensuring Belgium’s compliance with its oped under the Kyoto Protocol, is regulat-
international obligations. Under Belgian ed at federal level and in the Regions by
4.2.1.1 Cooperation Agreement of 4.2.1.2 Cooperation agreement domestic law, competences that are at- the legislation transposing European Di-
14 November 2002 ‘Burden Sharing’ tributed exclusively to an entity mean that rective 2003/4/EC on public access to en-
The legal basis for the obligation to it is competent for compliance with the ob- vironmental information (based on the first
The cooperation agreement on the Bur-
evaluate the policies and measures (PAMs) ligations in the same field of competence pillar of the Aarhus Convention on Ac-
den Sharing (2013-2020) provides the le-
is the Cooperation Agreement of 14 No- at national, European and international cess to Information, Public Participation
gal basis for the decisions to be taken to
vember 2002 between the Federal State, level, to the exclusion of other entities. in Decision-making and Access to Justice
honour the commitments entered into by
the Flemish Region, the Walloon Region However, international public law does not in Environmental Matters). This has been
Belgium under the 2013-2020 European
and the Brussels Capital Region, which allow federal states to withdraw from their reflected in various legislative and regula-
Energy & Climate Package. The negotia-
provides that a National Climate Plan must international obligations on the basis of tory initiatives at both federal and regional
tions on the Burden Sharing 2021-30 are
be drawn up, executed, evaluated and re- domestic law arrangements, as specified in levels.
ongoing.
ported to the UNFCCC under the Kyoto Article 27 of the Vienna Convention on the The website of the National Climate
protocol. Federal State vouches for international law Commission offers most of the relevant in-
violations on the part of federal entities. formation on Belgian climate policy.
The right of substitution was introduced
in order to remedy the contradiction be-
4. Policies and measures 56
4.2.3 Participation in the Kyoto proved by the National Climate Commis- commitment period and a technical cor- the involvement of all stakeholders and
mechanisms sion. rection of the FMRL (Forest management aims at an increase of forest area with 3%
reference levels) of 1 010.17 kt CO2-eq. by mid-2024 (baseline is 2019) and with
The repartition of competence concern-
was proposed in the NIR 2022 (section 7% by 2030 (baseline of 2019). This ex-
ing approval of project activities is stipu- 4.2.3.3 Approval procedures
10.5.4.4). ceeds the global target sets in the United
lated in a Cooperation Agreement between
The Regions, the Federal Government Nations Strategic Plan on Forests (Global
the Federal Government and the 3 Regions Forest Goal 1; target 1.1) The area of land
and the National Climate Commission
of the country concerning the implemen- 4.2.4.2 Forest management
have adopted their procedure and approval occupied by forests will be increased by 3
tation of certain provisions of the Kyoto criteria. In Wallonia, the Forest Code (Decree per cent worldwide (until 2030) (based on
Protocol (19 February 2007). of 15 July 2008) has introduced a certain the Global Forest Resources Assessment
number of constraints in favour of forest 2015). Insights with regard to the state of
4.2.4 Information on Articles 3(3) and 3(4) conservation and the maintenance of lig- and changes within forest ecosystems in
4.2.3.1 Designation of DNA/DFP of the Kyoto Protocol neous materials and carbon, including: Flanders can be obtained when comparing
On 8 March 2007, Belgium notified the the abolition of inheritance duties on the results of the Flemish Forest Inventory.
4.2.4.1 Trends
UNFCCC that its National Climate Com- stumpage value, which encourages more This is a policy-supporting monitoring net-
mission (NCC) had been legally designat- The LULUCF sector as a whole (CRF ecological forestry choices, restriction of work on a large spatial scale (Flanders) and
ed as national Focal Point (FP) and Desig- category 4) was a net removal of 335.86 kt clear-cutting; obligation to plant species on a large temporal scale (ten years). The
nated National Authority (DNA) for JI and CO2 eq. in Belgium’s submission of May suited to the site, creation of integral re- first cycle was completed between 1997-
CDM project activity approval. 2022. serves; draining limitation. The designa- 1999. The second cycle ran from 2009 un-
Regarding Art. 3.3, Afforestation, Re- tion of 1 500 km² of forests in Natura 2000 til 2018 and the third cycle began in 2019.
The approval procedures are published under special fixed rules of management A comparison of the results of the Flem-
forestation and Deforestation, there is an
on the website of the National Climate also contributes to the various objectives ish forest inventory shows that the volume
overall balance between afforested and
Commission. of the Forest Code in Wallonia. Many areas of standing timber per hectare increased
deforested areas (see the National Inven-
tory Report, section 10.2.4), as confirmed are also certified under PEFC management very markedly between the first two mea-
by the stable forest area observed in forest standards. surement cycles. The composition of tree
4.2.3.2 Distribution of authority for the
inventories. However, due to accounting species changed substantially between the
approval of project activities In the Brussels Capital Region, the
first two measurement cycles. The share
rules (instantaneous oxidation in the case Sonian Forest (Forêt de Soignes/Zoniën-
According to Article 1, Section 27, of of hardwood tree species is increasing at
of deforestation), this results in net emis- woud) is protected (no deforestation al-
the ‘Flex Mex’ Cooperation Agreement the expense of coniferous wood. Homo-
sions of 446.93 kt CO2-eq. under Art 3.3. lowed) and FSC certified. Its management
project approval constitutes written au- geneous pine and poplar stands are being
Regarding Article 3.4, Belgium did not aims to ensure ecological stability and a
thorisation enabling one or more persons converted into mixed stands. The forest in-
long-term balance in the distribution of
to participate in a project activity. elect any activity, so Forest Management ventory shows that the proportion and vol-
forest age, taking into account biodiversity,
is the only relevant category. In 2020, For- ume of dead wood in forest has increased.
Article 5 of this Agreement specifies ecological and social aspects.
est management resulted in a net sink of Dead wood is an important parameter for
the cases in which the federal or regional 1 578.43 kt CO2-eq., compared to a cur- Forest policy in the Flemish Region biodiversity in forest ecosystems. The
authorities are authorised to grant approv- rent forest management reference level of focuses on the qualitative and quantita- number of tree species per forest type has
al. According to Article 7, the activities not 2 499 kt CO2-eq. However, Belgium will tive dimensions of forests. A plan for for- increased, but the number of herbaceous
covered by any of these categories are ap- only submit an account at the end of the est expansion has been developed with species has not. The number of herba-
4. Policies and measures 57
ceous plants typically encountered in old bon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for 4.2.5.2 International shipping In 2016, the IMO adopted a Data Col-
forests is increasing, also in more recent International Aviation), the global mar- lection System similar to the European
On 1 January 2018, MRV (Monitoring,
and therefore younger forests. Calculat- ket-based measure from ICAO which in- MRV. It is more inclusive but less ambi-
Reporting and Verification of emissions
ed indices indicate that the naturalness of tends to reach global carbon neutral growth tious with regard to certain aspects. Work
from ships) entered into force. This intro-
Flemish forests has increased. The Flem- from 2019/2020 onwards. EU Member on amending this system is currently on-
duces obligations for ships over 5000 gross
ish forests are however darkening (which States also implement the technical mea- going.
tons that call at ports in the European Eco-
follows the trend that trees in forests are sures and standards (e.g. CO2 standard for
nomic Area. Work on amending this Regu- In 2018, the IMO adopted the Initial
aging) but the share of species that react aircraft, fuel and energy planning) adopt-
lation is currently ongoing. Strategy on reduction of greenhouse gas
positively to influx of nitrogen increased. ed by ICAO, to limit fuel consumption by
emissions from ships. The Initial IMO
The impact of nitrogen on the species com- aircraft. The first internationally agreed bind-
Strategy indicates that a revised Strategy
position of herbaceous species is clearly ing measure, the Ship Energy Efficiency
EU climate policy for aviation will be should be adopted in 2023 in line with the
visible: the number of nitrogen-loving spe- Plan (SEEMP) guidelines for all ships over
strengthened in the coming years, as part roadmap. Work on the revision of the strat-
cies is increasing, and the effect is greater 400 gross tons are currently undergoing
of the Fit for 55 legislative package pro- egy is currently ongoing.
in the forest edge. In 2017 the system of an update. Apart from this, new ships al-
posed by the European Commission in July
forest management planning is integrated ready have to comply with standards set As part of the Fit for 55-package pro-
2021 and is currently subject to the legis-
out in the Energy Efficiency Design Index posed by the European Commission in
with the management planning system of lative procedures in the European Parlia-
(EEDI), whilst existing ships will have to July 2021, shipping between EU ports as
biodiversity conservation areas. With this ment and Council. Amongst other things,
comply with standards set out in the Ener- well as (part of) international shipping will
movement, biodiversity concerns are fully this includes the strengthening of the EU
gy Efficiency Existing Ship Index (EEXI). be covered under the EU Emission Trading
mainstreamed into forest management. emissions trading scheme for aviation and
Both documents are addressing the techni- System, thereby introducing a carbon cost
measures to boost supply and demand of
cal efficiency of ships. IMO has adopted for maritime transport. The details of the
sustainable aviation fuels.
4.2.5 International transport a rating system addressing the operational legislation are still being negotiated.
Belgium supports the ongoing revi- efficiency for ships over 5000 gross tons in
4.2.5.1 International aviation sion of the Single European Sky aiming to the form of an operational carbon intensity
Belgian climate policy measures for improve its environmental performance. indicator (CII). The EEXI and CII mea-
international aviation are mainly based on New projects were also initiated in order sures will enter into force from 1 January
European and international (ICAO) policy. to improve the flight efficiency in Belgian 2023 onwards.
airspace and facilitate the deployment of
Since 2012 the European Emissions Sustainable Aviation Fuel at Brussels-Na-
Trading Scheme for aviation is operation- tional Airport.
al in all EU Member States and limits the
CO2-emissions from flights within the Eu- As a first step to discourage short
ropean Economic Area (EEA) to 90% of flights, a tax on boarding an aircraft when
a passenger departs from an airport locat-
the average emissions in the period 2004-
ed in Belgium was recently introduced.
2006.
With this measure, we want to encourage
From 2021 onwards, all EU Member travellers to consider more sustainable
States are participating – on a voluntary alternatives for journeys of less than 500
basis – in the pilot phase of CORSIA (Car- kilometres.
4. Policies and measures 58
4.3 Policies and measures and their effects buildings focus on transposing the Europe-
an Directives on the energy performance of
ments paving the way for opportunities to
use RES and CHP sources and (in Wallo-
buildings and improving energy efficiency. nia) develop “CO2 mapping” of the activi-
These tools provide a timetable for the en- ty of industrial sites or commodity chains.
try into force of increasingly stringent en- In addition, specific sectoral measures are
4.3.1 Overview of the main PAMs - PAMs 46, 48, 206 and 207). See also section 5.2
ergy standards for new constructions and taken to reduce other greenhouse gas emis-
reported in the CTF Table 3 for some other considerations and section
thorough renovations, including heating sions such as F-gas, CH4 and N2O emis-
The NECP is structured in accordance 4.1.3 for the methodology. The vast ma-
and hot water production facilities and fi- sions.
with Annex 1 of Governance Regulation jority of policies and measures address is-
nancial support for upgrading the energy
(EU) 2018/1999. CTF Table 3 summarise sues relating to energy conservation in all TRANSPORT
efficiency of existing buildings.
the PAMs identified in the NECP that con- sectors. In particular, the following major In the transport sector, the initiatives
measures are expected to provide essential In the medium and long term, the man- undertaken by the Federal and Regional
tribute the reducing GHG emissions. Some
emission reductions: datory preparation of an energy certificate Governments mainly focus on:
measures from the previous climate plan
for any building prior to a transaction (sale,
are also included in CTF Table 3 insofar as ENERGY rental) should offer a way of giving added –– Limiting road-traffic growth for freight
they were not included in the new NECP
Energy production: Most of the PAMs value to the most efficient buildings. The transport, and incentivising the “modal
and continue to produce effects in terms of
are aimed at the development of renew- improvement of existing residential build- shift” (towards rail or waterways) and
emission reductions (see previous BR for
able energy sources (RES) and some still ings may, among other things, be eligible by investing in greener freight trans-
more details).
focus on promoting high-efficiency Com- for regional subsidies and low-interest port (e.g. using low-carbon vehicles)
A more extensive table of the PAMs bined Heat and Power (CHP) systems to loans. In Flanders, a renovation obligation –– Limiting car use by incentivising a
is used to track them which corresponds produce electricity. The main instruments exists for residential and non-residential “modal shift” for passenger transport,
to EU reporting under Article 18(1)(a) of implemented are markets of green certifi- buildings with a low energy performance e.g. improving public transport and up-
the Governance Regulation available on cates (covering both RES and CHP in Wal- after ownership is transferred by a civ- grading biking or pedestrian infrastruc-
Reportnet 3. The NECP consists of various lonia and Brussels, with a separate CHP il-law notary. ture;
measures, some of which reinforce each certificates market in Flanders). For RES, –– Encouraging drivers to acquire and use
other. Flanders uses subsidies for the promotion INDUSTRY / INDUSTRIAL low-carbon vehicles (information, tax
of solar and onshore wind energy. The pro- PROCESSES incentives, low emission zone across
As the list of Belgian PAMs is quite
motion of offshore wind farms and biofuel In industry, the European Emission the entire territory of the Brussels-Cap-
long, an overview of the main measures at
blending also constitutes an essential tool Trading System (ETS) is a major tool for ital Region, deployment of a charging
sectoral level that deliver the largest reduc-
for RES development. reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the infrastructure for electric vehicles)
tion is set out below.
most cost-efficient way. A second crucial and to optimise their use (eco-driving,
The EU emission trading system, and
Although these measures lead to the tool is the sectoral agreements drawn up car-sharing, etc.). Following the pro-
the carbon price it includes for the electric-
largest emission reductions overall, not between the regional governments of Flan- posed Fit for 55-package, the sale of
ity production, is also an important driver
all of them have quantitative estimates. ders and Wallonia (the industrial sector of new passenger vehicles and vans with
for the development of renewable energy.
In CTF Table 3, the quantitative estimates Brussels being very small) and their in- an internal combustion engine will be
concern 48 PAMs or clusters of PAMs, Energy conservation in buildings: dustries to improve energy efficiency and banned in the EU by 2035. A more rap-
of which 8 deliver more than 70% of the Measures to promote rational energy use reduce greenhouse gas emissions. These id phase-out is currently being consid-
emission reductions (PAMs n°1, 2, 29, 35, and the use of renewable energy sources in agreements also notably contain require- ered by some Belgian governments.
4. Policies and measures 59
Emissions from the transport sector lations (a ban on landfill, rules governing reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. Cur- –– In waste treatment, the recovery of
have been increasing over time until 2015. organic waste, the recovery and use of bio- rently, the low availability and high cost of landfill gases (CH4) and its use as bio-
Particular efforts are seeking to encourage gas from solid waste deposits for energy alternative fuels are two of the obstacles to gas to generate electricity;
modal shifts from road to rail or inland production, electricity production in waste their deployment. In order to improve the –– Measures to inspect and maintain re-
waterways transport, both for persons and incineration plants) and the development accessibility of alternative fuels at Brussels frigeration systems in order to limit
goods. Since April 2016, the Kilometre of specific channels for enhanced waste re- Airport, Belgium is taking several actions: leakages of fluorinated gas;
Charging System for heavy goods vehicles covery and treatment. on one hand, the integration of clauses in –– In agriculture, managing nitrates to
of more than 3.5 tonnes in the Flemish, the tender for the new refuelling contract reduce N2O emanations and reducing
Walloon and Brussels Regions took effect. AVIATION AND MARINE BUNKER CH4 emissions from bovine livestock.
to allow for a rapid transition to sustain-
FUELS
Fiscal measures have enabled a sig- able aviation fuels; and, on the other hand, LONG-TERM IMPACTS
International shipping and aviation are the granting of subsidies for pilot projects
nificant improvement in energy efficiency Compared to BR4, emission reduction
not covered by the Member States' non- facilitating the supply of those fuels at the
of road vehicles, focusing on the support estimates have been extended to 2040.
ETS climate target. airport with the aim of neutralising their
for very low-consumption models, while
penalising models with a high energy con- Taking into account the international current additional cost. Other initiatives Many of the measures from the NECP
sumption. character of shipping, measures should be have also been launched in order to re- involve support for investments, the ef-
taken on an international or at least at EU duce the use of kerosene at the airport and fects of which will last for several years,
Belgium is also in the process of pro- or even decades. The long-term impact of
level. Policy is therefore largely organised to deliver more sustainable air navigation
ducing and distributing increasing quanti- such measures is linked to the technical
on an international and EU level. For the services by means of optimised operations
ties of biofuels. or economic service life of the equipment
maritime sector, at national level, a study and environmental charging.
was completed and published in March concerned.
AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY Then, as a first step to discourage short
2021 that analysed the reduction potential This is especially true in the case of
Initiatives in the agricultural sector flights, a tax on boarding an aircraft when-
of various technical and operational mea- investment in infrastructure: building in-
focus on reducing greenhouse gas emis- ever a passenger departs from an airport lo-
sures for vessels smaller than 5000 GT. sulation, construction of new low-energy
sions by improving agricultural practices cated in Belgium was recently introduced.
These vessels include domestic maritime buildings and facilities, but also, for exam-
(reduction in the use of mineral fertilisers, With this measure, we want to encourage
navigation, international maritime naviga- ple, infrastructure that encourages modal
the storage and spreading of manure, waste travellers to consider more sustainable al-
tion on Belgian territory, estuary shipping shifts. Investments such as loading docks,
recovery, avoiding the ploughing up of ternatives when making journeys of less
and recreational shipping. This study may broad gauge waterways, railway adapta-
permanent grassland, combating soil deg- than 500 kilometres.
be useful to stakeholders when considering tions and the purchase of rail machinery
radation, etc.) and energy efficiency in
investments in/decisions concerning GHG concern facilities with a service life in ex-
horticulture (mainly situated in Flanders). IMPACT PER GAS
emission reduction technologies. Until fi- cess of 50 years.
Reforestation and forest conservation are The vast majority of these measures af-
nal decisions are made regarding the scope
encouraged through specific legislation. fect the CO2 emissions of the sectors con- For measures to upgrade the energy ef-
of EU and IMO measures, the study can
also serve as a basis on which to consider cerned. Exceptions to this are as follows: ficiency of heating and domestic hot water
WASTE
further national measures. production facilities, the average service
The policies implemented to reduce the –– In the industrial sector, specific mea- life can be 20 years or more. This will
volume of waste and optimise its treatment Similarly, Belgium insists that the avi- sures taken to reduce N2O emissions also apply in the case of infrastructure that
are based on environmental taxation (pro- ation sector makes specific commitments from industrial processes during the makes use of renewable energy sources,
moting reusable packaging), stricter regu- and develops a roadmap to substantially production of caprolactam;
4. Policies and measures 60
the service life of which will vary, depend- –– 103. Promoting sustainable energy The set of policies and measures to case of emissions not included within the
ing on the technology implemented. sources for the “process” needs of ter- achieve the 2020 target are reflected in EU’s Emission Trading System.
tiary buildings ➤ Promoting sustain- the federal and regional plans described in
In contrast, initiatives aimed at chang- The Flemish Energy and Climate Plan
able energy sources to serve the needs chapter 4.1.2.5.
ing behaviour may need to be maintained is recognised as a transversal policy pro-
of tertiary buildings
or repeated over several years, at least until gramme. In December 2021, the Flemish
–– 145. Green loans ➤ Brussels Green
a real change in mentality across all sec- 4.3.2.2 Recent developments of PAMs (up Government adopted the Framework of
loans
tions of society is visible. to 2022) Arrangements, which lays down how the
–– 152. Green certificates ➤ Brussels
plan will be implemented in the coming
The revision of the NECP in 2023-24 Green certificates
Federal State years. It also contains provisions regarding
should lead to a reinforcement of existing
In addition, the following new PAMs annual progress reports, the involvement
and already planned measures as well as In the context of the governance sys-
have been added: of stakeholders and the upgrade planned in
new ones to accelerate emission reductions tem described under 4.1.3, the federal gov-
2023-24.
and move towards longer-term objectives. –– 206. Walloon Renovation Strategy: ernment took two decisions on 2 April and
This is a cluster of PAMs 72, 73, 78, 97, the 8 October with regard to its climate In July 2021, the first progress report
98, 99, 101, 102, 103 and 104 that have monitoring and ambition raising tools. The of the Flemish Energy and Climate Plan
4.3.2 Update on policies and measures
been combined to allow an estimate of federal government envisages the develop- 2021-2030 was published. In addition to
4.3.2.1 PAMs from the National Energy overall emission reductions. ment of roadmaps in ten domains, namely a sectoral overview of the greenhouse gas
Climate Plan –– 207. Fast Vision: This is a cluster of taxation and finance, over energy, trans- emissions, this progress report also includ-
PAMs 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92 and port, circular economy, public buildings, ed an overview of the progress of the in-
Compared to the previous report, some 93 that have been combined to allow functioning of public companies, interna- dividual measures that are included in the
measures have been renamed for clarity: an estimate of overall emission reduc- tional climate cooperation, climate policy plan. A second progress report is being pre-
–– 17. Company car regime ➤ Benefit in tions. governance, adaptation and research. (cf. pared in the autumn of 2022.
kind depending on CO2 emissions for –– 210. Mobility and Fleet Facilitator for First synthesis report in FR and in NL).
Finally, the Flemish Government ad-
company cars public services and companies
opted the Climate Strategy 2050 in 2019,
–– 21. Federal strategy to promote cycling –– 211. Renolab Flemish Region
which provides a long-term pathway for
➤ Federal strategy to promote bicycle –– 212. Renoclick
For the period 2021-2030, the Flem- the reduction of emissions in sectors that
use –– 213. Cash for cars and mobility budget
ish Government adopted the Flemish En- do not form part of the EU Emission Trad-
–– 23. Promotion of carsharing and tele- –– 214. Tax free bicycle allowance
ergy and Climate Plan, which was then ing System, with an overall objective to
working ➤ Teleworking for federal –– 215. Promotion of carpooling
incorporated into the National Energy achieve a reduction of -85% by 2050 (com-
civil servants –– 216. Rail non-traction: SNCB/NMBS
and Climate Plan. In November 2021, the pared to 2005). This strategy is being set
–– 32. Renewable Energy for Public insti- & Infrabel
Flemish Government agreed on a series of out in more specific terms by drawing up
tutions ➤ Photovoltaic panels on roofs –– 217. Energy taxation on fossil fuel used
additional measures in its Vision Paper on sectoral strategies, such as the long-term
of Federal government buildings for energy production
Additional Measures that would further renovation strategy, which was adopted in
–– 40. Green loans ➤ Federal Green loans –– 218. Tax deductions for the purchase of
reduce greenhouse gas emissions within May 2020.
–– 96. Local production ➤ Local food new clean vehicles (private citizens)
the Flemish Region. The greenhouse gas
production There are no PAM 208 and 209 (and no reduction target was raised to a reduction
166 either: see 4.4). of -40% by 2030 (compared to 2005) in the
4. Policies and measures 61
Walloon Region Brussels Capital Region 4.4 Policies and measures no longer in place
Since the previous NC, the Walloon At the level of the Brussels Capital Re-
Government adopted a new Air Climate gion, the regional contribution to the Na-
Energy Plan 2016-2022 on 21 April 2016. tional Energy and Climate Plan has con-
The Walloon contribution to the NECP was siderably increased its objectives in terms Compared to the previous report, the is unconnected to the item previously
subsequently adopted as part of the future of emission reductions by planning, among following PAMS were deleted from the listed under that number (41. EMAS
ACEP in December 2019. other things, to renovate the stock of build- summary table: certification)
ings, to increase our renewable capacities –– 166 Reduction of the emissions of flu-
Under the new Government, a group of –– 41 Incentive for pedelecs: policies that
and to improve the performance and ener- orinated greenhouse gases (expired and
citizens was set up to advise the Minister until 2021 were specifically targeting
gy efficiency of the transport sector. These already replaced by PAM 165)
of Climate and Energy on new measures pedelecs (high-speed electric bicycles)
measures are detailed in section 4.1.1.2 of
seeking to achieve a target of -55% GHG have now been included within generic The following PAMs are deemed to
BR4.
by 2030 (corresponding to the Fit For 55 bicycle policies relating to commuting have expired, but are still delivering emis-
proposals). These citizens submitted 168 The Brussels-Capital Region is also from home to work (PAM 214. Tax free sion reductions (In the CTF 3 Table, they
proposals, prioritised on the one hand in working on its next Air-Climate-Energy bicycle allowance) / A new measure are always indicated as implemented): 36,
terms of acceptability and on the other Plan to contribute to the objectives pro- has been encoded under number 41, but 37, 40, 105, 146.
hand in terms of their potential impact on posed by the Fit for 55 package. The con-
emissions. The regional renovation strate- tent relating to energy and climate will be
gy has also been revised in line with the
new European ambitions.
incorporated into the update of National
Energy and Climate Plan to be issued in
4.5 Minimising the adverse effects
All these measures will be incorporat-
June 2023 (draft) and June 2024 (final). of response measures
ed into the new version of AECP, which,
according to the estimated timeline of the
project, should be adopted by the end of
This text has been revised in the con- in-depth evaluation, amongst other things
2023, a timing that aims to be aligned with
text of the BR4 of Belgium and some even with regard to their economic and social
the European deadlines for the submission
more recent developments. It is included in consequences. These improvements should
of the revised NECP.
the NIR. be improved in the next reporting exercise.
Under Article 3.14 of the Kyoto Proto- Actions taken are intended to contrib-
col and UNFCCC Decision 31/CMP.1, An- ute to preventing dangerous anthropogen-
nex I Parties are invited to report on how ic interference with the climate system.
they are striving to implement their com- Adverse impacts of climate change will
mitment while minimizing adverse social, therefore be globally reduced if Annex I
environmental and economic impacts on countries (and Belgium among them) take
measures aiming to reduce GHG emissions
developing country parties.
by means of energy savings and the pro-
Many of the NECP measures are new motion of renewable energy sources. Fur-
and/or prolonged policies that require an thermore, most of those actions will help to
4. Policies and measures 62
reduce air pollution resulting from the use Plan (NECP) provided for the compilation –– A focus on the rights of women in the –– Belgian agricultural policies and the
of fossil fuel, which will benefit all coun- of an inventory of all fossil fuel subsidies programming cycles of cooperation ac- promotion of biofuels being developed
tries. by the end of 2021. The federal Invento- tivities. within the European common policies.
ry of fossil fuel subsidies was finalised in –– A recent decision to develop a nation- With regard to biofuels and acknowl-
As a Member State of the European
May 20214. A list of all energy subsidies al action plan on business and human edging that their development could
Union, Belgium designs and implements
(including those for fossil fuels) on a feder- rights which will ensure the implemen- create pressures on food prices and on
most of its policies in the context of EU
al and regional level, was communicated to tation of social responsibility and the land and forest management, especial-
directives, regulations, decisions and rec-
the European Commission at the beginning embedding of human rights within the ly in developing countries, the EU has
ommendations. For instance, Belgium has
of 2021. business sector; established strict sustainability criteria
implemented the European liberalisation
–– A commitment to develop a 2nd national which include not supporting biofu-
of electricity and natural gas markets and is The NECP also provided for the adop-
plan to combat child poverty; els produced using land with a high
involved in the European Emissions Trad- tion in 2021 of an action plan by the fed-
–– etc. biodiversity value (primary forest and
ing Scheme, all of which are actions aim- eral state to phase out fossil fuel subsidies
wooded land, protected areas or highly
ing to address market imperfections and by means of a step-by-step approach. The For further information, please see the
bio-diverse grasslands), or from land
to better reflect external factors affecting plan should include specific and socially 1st Belgian National Voluntary Review
converted from wetlands, peatlands
energy/CO2 prices. corrective steps in order to assist the transi- on the Implementation of the 2030 Agen-
or continuously forested areas. It will
tion towards a climate-neutral society. The da (“PATHWAYS TO SUSTAINABLE
Various international bodies have iden- also be very cautious about any broad-
measures will form part of an overall tax DEVELOPMENT”). A 2nd National Vol-
tified areas in which progress could be er environmental and social aspects
reform based on a currently running study untary Review is currently underway, in
made to decrease fossil fuel subsidies in such as air, water and soil quality and
on environmental reforms in Belgium. accordance with a decision by the Inter-
Belgium. labour conditions. Belgium foresees a
ministerial Conference on Sustainable De-
The respect and the promotion of hu- biofuel blending percentage of 10.45%
Belgium has abolished subsidies sup- velopment of 5 May 2022.
man rights is and remains a priority for in real terms and 13.9% including dou-
porting the use of coal and other fossil fu-
Belgium, both on a national level and in its Finally, the NECP also provides for: ble counting. This includes a 7% first
els for energy production and expects these
relations with other countries. gen blending throughout the period and
measures to have a positive health impact –– The organisation of a “National di-
a blending of 1.75% and 1.7% of part
on the long term. Belgium is actively involved in the pro- alogue on the just transition to a cli-
A & part B advanced biofuel blending
motion and protection of human rights in a mate-neutral society” to be organised
A modification of taxes aimed achiev- respectively in 2030. Based on Arti-
variety of ways, for example: by the federal government in conjunc-
ing an equality of excises for diesel and cles 25-27 of that directive, the contri-
tion with all policy actors, governments
gasoline has been implemented (the “Roy- –– The establishment of a solid legal and butions of all eligible fuels amount to
and stakeholders. This dialogue will be
al Decree of 26 October 2015” and the policy framework for combating gen- 23.7%. A biannual study is being exe-
supported by an analysis of the positive
Law of 27 June 2016): the special excise der-based discrimination; cuted to evaluate the technical feasibil-
and negative effects of the transition to
duty for diesel for non-commercial use has –– Support for the Office of the High ity, the availability of resources and ad-
a climate-neutral society and will fo-
been increased from 2015 to 2018. The pri- Commissioner for Human Rights as a vanced biofuels (recycled carbon fuels
cus, among other things, on the iden-
mary objective of this PAM is to improve partner organisation of multilateral co- & technological evolutions), the envi-
tification of policy options while ad-
air quality. operation. ronmental integrity, possible conflicts
dressing the challenges in the areas of
However, various subsidies for fossil in their use, the costs to consumers and
4
Summary in EN: https://finance.belgium.be/ employment, social policy, reskilling
fuel consumption are still available in Bel- the availability of other renewable en-
sites/default/files/Statistieken_SD/Inventaris/ and -economy.
gium. The National Energy and Climate FFS_2021_summary_EN.pdf ergy sources. ■
4. Policies and measures 63
5.1 Projections
5. Projections
to the European Commission in compli- to 2030 due to CTF decision (19/CP.18),
ance with Article 18 of Regulation (EU) but in the present chapter, all available pro-
2018/1999. A detailed description of as- jections up to 2040 are included.
effect of policies
These projections were drawn up in the
international transport have been reported
course of 2020, based on the most recent
separately in the CTF tables and are not
information available on the macro-eco-
and measures,
included in the national total (both in the
nomic context and policy implementation
CTF tables and in the tables and figures in
and using 2018 as the reference year. As
this report).
these projections were developed in 2020,
and supplementarity they could not yet take into account the ex-
pected impact of the COVID-19 crisis. For
Except for electricity production and
bunker fuels, the reported projections are
the sum of the projections of the three re-
relating to
the reference year 2018, unadjusted emis-
sions data from the inventory submission gions (Flanders, Wallonia, Brussels-Capi-
in 2022 (resubmission dated 23/05/2022) tal) which are calibrated against the region-
Kyoto protocol
are presented in this chapter and in CTF al energy balances. The regional approach
Table 6, whereas in the preparation of the starts from the demand side of the different
projections, the inventory as reported in sectors (industry, domestic, tertiary, trans-
mechanisms 2020 was still used for the reference year port, …) and results in sectoral energy pro-
2018. Since 2020 is now also available as jections. Within this approach, relations
an inventory year, historical (and not pro- between energy consumption, activity lev-
jected) emissions for 2020 as included in els and energy prices are assessed on a sec-
the inventory submission in 2022 (resub- toral level. The electricity production and
mission dated 23/05/2022) are presented in the bunker fuel emissions are modelled on
this chapter and in CTF Table 6. Projections a national level.
have been included on a quantitative basis, The regional energy related projections
starting from the most recent inventory are based on regional energy statistics.
year (i.e. 2020) and for subsequent years Contrarily to the federal energy statistics
that end in either a zero or a five, extending (EUROSTAT) which consist of sales data,
64
the regional energy statistics are based on The main models used by the different The strengths of these simulation mod- 5.1.3 General projection assumptions
consumption data. entities are: els can be found in their ease of use, in the Since Belgium’s last biennial report
ease of understanding the results for deci- and national communication, the input data
This is particularly important for the –– Times: used by the Walloon Region;
sion makers, in their transparency, in the has been updated. The following general
transport sector: the regional CO2 emission –– Flemish energy and greenhouse gas
ability to evaluate the impact of individual assumptions are used in the calculations of
projections for road transport are based on simulation model: used by the Flemish
measures, … However, some weaknesses and the regional bottom-up emission pro-
regional mobility data (vehicle kilometres, Region;
can be mentioned, such as the fact that they jections (unless otherwise indicated).
etc.) while the national top-down CO2 –– Energy and Atmospheric Emissions
offer no guarantee of an overall optimum,
emission projections for road transport are projection model for the stationary All implemented and adopted (EU,
the difficulty in modelling complex (eco-
based on fuel sold. To ensure coherence sources and Transport Emission Pro- federal, regional) policies and measures,
nomic) interactions, the involvement of
between national emission inventory data jection model: used by the Brussels considered up to the end of 2019, have
expert judgement to define input variables,
and projected regional emission data, the Capital Region; been taken into account in the ‘with exist-
etc.
sum of the regional transport emission data –– OFFREM model: used by all regions ing measures’ (WEM) scenario. Planned
is recalibrated to coincide with the national for off-road sectors; A new model, called « TIMES-Wal » policies and measures or targets have been
inventory data. This recalibration has been –– F-gas model: used by all regions for has been used for the first time for reporting incorporated in a scenario with addition-
incorporated into the projected emission F-gases. purposes for the WEM scenario (previous- al measures (WAM). These measures are
figures. ly, Wallonia used EPM (Energy/Emissions presented in more detail in the PAMs EU
The models used by the Flemish Re-
Projection Model)). TIMES is an optimi- reporting template, an extended version of
For more information, see also the gion and the Brussels-Capital Region are
sation model – it needs to satisfy all ener- the CTF Table 3 and chapter 4 of the pres-
Belgian national system on projections re- simulation models, of the “bottom-up”
gy service demands and constraints while ent report.
port under Article 39 of Regulation (EU) type, i.e. explaining energy consump-
minimising the costs. In TIMES, perfect
2018/1999. tions and GHG emissions from activity The section below summarises the gen-
foresight (i.e. all future events within the
variables expressed, as far as possible, in eral assumptions included in the WEM and
Projections of the indirect GHGs are defined temporal horizon are known) and
physical units, and containing a detailed WAM scenarios.
available from some projection models, competitive markets are assumed.
representation of emission sources and the
but a consistent set of projections for all re-
main determining factors of the evolution The strengths of this optimisation mod-
gions is lacking. For this reason, no projec- 5.1.3.1 Emission factors
of energy demand and the various types el can be found in its flexibility when tak-
tions of indirect GHGs have been included
of emissions. There are some minor dif- ing into account variables and technologies Emission factors reported in the ‘Bel-
in the report.
ferences with regard to the level of detail, coherent with regional specificities and gium’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-
the activity variables and parameters in data availability and in the highlighting of 2018) National Inventory Report have been
5.1.2 Description of models these regional models. The projection re- an economic optimum, taking into account used for the calculation of the projections.
Descriptions of the models used in the sults consist of the sum of the bottom-up interactions between sectors. However,
calculation of the regional and national projections. In order to avoid inconsisten- some weaknesses can be mentioned such
projections are included in Annex 3 to this cies between the regions, the same general as the difficulty when modelling non-eco- 5.1.3.2 Global Warming Potential
report. assumptions are used by the three regions nomic barriers and the sensitivity of the CO2 equivalent emissions and project-
for key parameters (climate assumptions, results to uncertain economic parameters. ed emissions 2020-2040 are calculated us-
demographic evolution, …). ing the Global Warming Potential (GWP)
values specified in the 2006 IPCC Guide-
5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures, and supplementarity relating to Kyoto protocol mechanisms 65
lines for National Greenhouse Gas Inven-
tories (Table 5.1).
Statistics Prospect
5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures, and supplementarity relating to Kyoto protocol mechanisms 66
5.1.4 Sector-specific assumptions –– the cost of fuel;
The following sector-specific assump- –– time periods (electricity demand is not
tions are used for the regional bottom-up equal in winter and in summer, nor
projections. during night and day).
Table 5.3 shows the demand and supply
5.1.4.1 The Power Sector (electricity data of the electricity sector for Belgium
production) (CRF category 1A1a and (TWh) in both the WEM and WAM sce-
autoproducers in other CRF categories) nario.
The projections for the electricity The results in Table 5.3 show an in-
production sector are modelled using the crease of the electricity consumption be-
Flemish energy and greenhouse gas simu- tween 2018 and 2040 by 15% in the WEM-
lation model at national level. Projections scenario and 16% in the WAM scenario
for electricity production take account of: (i.e. an average of 0.69% and 0.73% per
year respectively). Cross-border electrici-
–– trends with regard to electricity de- ty trading is considered exogenous in the
mand (in some sectors); modelling of the electricity production.
–– changes electricity production facilities
and production efficiencies; The net import levels in the Belgian
–– imports of electricity; projections up to 2040 are based on exist-
ing scenario reports of the Belgian power
system. The actual trend with regard to
net imports will mainly depend on new
cross-border transportation capacities,
commercial opportunities and the location
of new production plants.
Table 5.3 Electricity demand and supply for Belgium (TWh) The WEM and WAM scenarios include
the phasing-out of nuclear energy in Bel-
gium. On 31 January 2003, the Federal
WEM WAM
Government decided to proceed with a
2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2025 2030 2035 2040 progressive phasing-out of electricity pro-
Final consumption Belgium 82.7 84.6 87.7 91.5 95.4 86.4 89.8 92.7 96.1 duction using nuclear fission energy by
limiting the service lives of existing nucle-
Distribution losses and own use 8.4 8.2 8.0 8.8 9.6 8.8 8.5 9.1 10.0
ar power plants to 40 years and prohibit-
Net import (balance export – import) 17.3 8.1 13.0 13.0 13.0 7.3 8.4 9.0 9.2 ing the construction of new nuclear power
Gross production 73.8 84.7 82.8 87.3 92.0 88.0 89.8 92.8 96.9 plants. In July 2012, the Federal Govern-
ment confirmed this timetable except for
one nuclear unit, Tihange 1, whose service
5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures, and supplementarity relating to Kyoto protocol mechanisms 67
life was extended by a further 10 years. After 2025, nuclear power plants will be
Table 5.4 Phasing-out of nuclear power (according to the Law of 18 June 2015)
th This decision was confirmed in a law (of phased out and are projected to be main-
18 December 2013). On 18 June 2015, ly replaced by natural gas and increased
another extension was approved (for the imports. The share of renewables within
Nuclear unit Capacity (MW) Closing date
Doel 1 and Doel 2 units) by amending the total gross electricity production amounted
Doel 1 433 15 February 2025
Law of 31 January 2003. The timetable for to 24% in 2018 and will increase to 44%
Doel 2 433 1 December 2025 the phasing-out of nuclear power between in 2040 in the WAM scenario. The policy
Doel 3 1 006 1 October 2022 2022 and 2025 mentioned in Table 5.4 (as and measures to support and promote re-
Doel 4 1 039 1 July 2025 inscribed in Article 4 of that law) has been newable energy in the three regions and at
Tihange 1 962 1 October 2025 taken into account in the WEM and WAM federal level are described in the EU PAMs
Tihange 2 1 008 1 February 2023 scenarios. reporting template and in chapter 4 of this
Tihange 3 1 046 1 September 2025 report.
An increase in the offshore wind ca-
pacity after 2020 has been assumed in the The calculation of the CH4 and N2O
WAM scenario (Table 5.5). emissions of the electricity production sec-
tor is performed by applying the CH4 and
Table 5.6 shows the shares of nuclear,
Table 5.5 Offshore wind capacity – WEM and WAM scenario (MW) N2O emission factors on the final energy
fossil fuel and renewables in total gross
carriers. The burning of wood and other bi-
electricity production in the WEM and
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 omass materials is only taken into account
WAM scenarios. Until 2025, a large part
in the projections of CH4 emissions.
WAM scenario 2261 2261 4011 4011 4011 of the base load demand is projected to be
WEM scenario 2261 2261 2261 2261 2261 met by nuclear power plants, CHP instal- For the CO2 emission projections
lations and renewable energy (biomass). originating from waste incineration, each
Table 5.6 Share of nuclear, fossil fuel and renewable in total gross electricity production (Source historical data: Eurostat database)
5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures, and supplementarity relating to Kyoto protocol mechanisms 68
region applies its own methodology as The N2O and CH4 emission projections 5.1.4.2.3 Oil transport (CRF category Brussels-Capital Region
specified in the National Inventory Report. from refining activities are estimated by 1B2a3) Fugitive emissions considered in Brus-
The CO2 emissions from waste incinera- applying emission factors to the final en- sels-Capital Region are due to the distribu-
Flanders
tion with energy recuperation are reported ergy carriers. The CH4 emissions have a tion of natural gas; the emissions remain
in the energy sector as ‘other fuels’ for the diffuse character and include the flaring Fugitive emissions of CO2 and CH4
from oil transport are assumed to remain constant since the network will not be ex-
non-organic part and as ‘biomass’ for the emission projections of the refineries in the tended.
organic part. The emissions from 1 indus- Flemish region. constant at the 2018 level.
trial waste incinerator in the Flemish re- 5.1.4.2.4 Gas transmission and
All CH4 emissions of this sector (except 5.1.4.3 The industrial sector
gion (auto-generator) are allocated to CRF distribution (CRF category 1B2b)
the emissions of the combined heat-power
category 1A4a. CO2 emissions originat- Projections regarding energy use in the
installations which are allocated to sector Flanders
ing from flaring activities in the chemical industry sector are based on assumptions
1A1a) are allocated to category 1B2a4 and
industry are allocated to the waste sector Projections of fugitive CH4 emissions of activities and also the energy intensity
all N2O-emissions (except the emissions
(CRF category 5C). from the distribution of natural gas in Flan- (amount of energy used per unit of activ-
of the combined heat-power installations
ders are calculated based on assumptions ity).
which are allocated to sector 1A1a) are
with regard to the evolution of the natural
5.1.4.2 The (Energy) Conversion Sector allocated to category 1A1b. The emissions
gas network and the gradual replacement 5.1.4.3.1 CO2 emissions from energy use
of CH4 reported in the category 1B2a4 also
5.1.4.2.1 Refineries (CRF categories of pig iron pipes by PE, PVC or steel. The in the industrial sector (CRF category
include the flaring activities of refineries.
1A1a, 1A1b, 1B2c, 1B2a4) expansion of the natural gas network in 1A2)
5.1.4.2.2 Coke production (CRF Flanders is estimated taking into account
Flanders Flanders
category 1A1c) the increase of the number of households
Refining is an activity that only takes and the number of houses in residential ar- The energy consumption and CO2
place in the Flemish region. The WEM and Flanders emissions in the industrial sector in the
eas with the possibility to connect to the
WAM emission projections assume that In Flanders, the WEM and WAM sce- natural gas distribution grid. WEM have been modelled taking into ac-
the capacity of the refineries in Belgium narios assume one coke production plant count the expected energy efficiency im-
will not increase after 2018. As described in the steel industry operating at maxi- Wallonia provement, based on current energy agree-
in the Belgian National Inventory Report mum capacity in the period 2018-2040 and The calculation of CH4 emissions from ments, and activity projections. Increased
CO2 emissions of the refineries are allocat- equipped with a desulphurisation unit. the distribution of natural gas in Wallonia energy efficiency and additional fuel shift
ed to the sectors: is based on the assumption that the network assumptions have been considered in the
Wallonia WAM scenario.
–– 1A1a for the involved combined expands slightly each year. The emissions
The last coke factory was closed in are supposed to stay constant as pig iron
heat-power installations of the refiner- The industrial off-road emissions are
2014 and it is not expected that a new plant pipes and asbestos cement pipes will con-
ies; calculated by using the OFFREM-model
will be built. tinue to be replaced, all new distribution
–– 1B2c for the flaring emissions; with emission factors of the IPCC 2006
–– 1A1b for the total emissions exclud- pipes being made of steel or PE/PVC. guidelines (CO2 and CH4) and EMEP/EEA
ing the emissions of the combined guidebook (N2O). Off-road emissions of
heat-power installations and excluding the industrial sectors are allocated (incl.
the emissions from flaring activities. construction industry) to category 1A2g-
vii.
5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures, and supplementarity relating to Kyoto protocol mechanisms 69
Wallonia Wallonia is currently developing a region. Companies consuming more than Projections of CO2 process emissions
The future evolution of demands for new projection model (TIMES). The base- 28 GWh per year of primary energy must are linked to activity assumptions which
industry is driven by a simple hypothesis: line scenario has been produced with this therefore conduct an energy audit. are mainly based on the results of the EU
each industrial sub-sector1 level of activity model. The WAM for the other sectors has Reference Scenario 2016 for Belgium.
been produced using an earlier projection 5.1.4.3.2 Process emissions of CO2 and
in Wallonia will stay the same until 2040 non-energy use of fuels (CRF category Wallonia
as it was before (the industrial activity is tool used in the previous report. For the
industry sector, it is not possible to use 2A, 2B, 2C) Main non-energy-related uses of fuels
defined as the average activity over the last
years (2014-2018)). This hypothesis is dic- these previous tools because the working Flanders in Wallonia:
tated by the lack of prospective study in the hypotheses (notably for activity drivers)
Main non-energy-related uses of fuels –– coal in the iron and steel industry and
case of the industrial sector in Wallonia in between WEM and WAM are too different.
in Flanders: selected applications of engineering
the long term and the uncertainties driven Therefore, for these projections, the WAM (metallic works);
has been assumed to be equal to the WEM. –– natural gas for ammonia production
by the COVID-19 crisis. This hypothesis –– petroleum products in several sectors,
(carbon converted to CO2 emissions);
could be updated in the coming months. Brussels Capital Region notably in the chemical industry;
–– natural gas for processes in which the
Investment projects and equipment clo- –– natural gas for ammonia production
The projections are calculated on the carbon is fixed in the end-products;
sures that have taken place or have been (carbon converted to CO2 emissions)
basis of energy intensity. The industrial –– natural gas for the production of hydro-
announced have been considered.
sector in the Brussels Capital Region was gen and ethylene oxide Emissions from processes considered
All major industries are involved in confronted with a significant decrease from –– naphtha and LPG in crackers and in Wallonia are the following:
‘second generation’ sectoral agreements, the year 2000. Between 2008 and 2018, it in other processes (carbon fixed in
–– CO2 produced by the decomposition of
under the terms of which they are commit- stabilised, representing approximately 3% end-products);
limestone in cement and lime produc-
ted to improve their energy/CO2 efficiency of final energy consumption in the region. –– heavy fuel oil for production of carbon
tions;
by 2023. Until 2023, an improvement in The prospects of a future expansion are black; use of coal-tar in one company.
–– CO2 produced by the decomposition
energy efficiency of 0.95% per annum has very low. The projections assume that the
Because these concern the use of fuel of methane for the production of am-
been assumed (except in the case of CHP). gross added value will progress according
for non-energy-related purposes, it is as- monia (and considered separately from
After that, in the period up to 2040, a nat- to the medium-term projections 2020-
sumed that climate policy will not have CO2 emitted by the actual combustion
ural improvement of 0.29% per annum has 2025; from 2025 until 2040, this value re-
an effect on the use of the fuels mentioned of methane)
been taken into account. For the develop- mains constant.
above. In addition, several processes also
ment of CHP in the industrial sector, the Projections of CO2 process emissions
On 8 December 2016, a decree was involve chemical reactions, in which car-
assumptions are described in the power are linked to growth rates of activity and
approved concerning the obligation to con- bonaceous products, generally not consid-
generation sector. have therefore been kept constant.
duct energy audits2. This decree is included ered as fuels, are oxidised to CO2. Such
in the WEM scenario. The objective is to process emissions occur in the chemical The emissions have been considered
reduce the total energy consumption of the industry (production of ethylene oxide, the same in the WEM and the WAM sce-
1
The industrial sector is divided into 20 subsec- biggest industrial companies located in the acryl acid, cyclohexanone, synthetic soda), narios.
tors : milk, sugar, transformed potatoes, other food
industry, cement, lime, hollow glass,flat glass, in refineries, in the non-metallic minerals
bricks, ceramics, other non-metallic minerals, am- Arrêté du Gouvernement de la Région de Brux-
2
sector, during flaring and the desulphurisa-
monia, other chemicals, wood industry, pulp and elles-Capitale relatif à l’audit énergétique des tion of flue gases.
paper, iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, non-en- grandes entreprises et à l’audit énergétique du per-
ergy consumption (chemicals and others) and other mis d’environnement approuvé en troisième lec-
industries ture le 8 décembre 2016.
5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures, and supplementarity relating to Kyoto protocol mechanisms 70
5.1.4.3.3 CH4 and N2O emissions in the the same in the WEM and the WAM sce- –– Strengthening of the economic support Flanders
industrial sector (CRF category 2) nario. instruments, particularly the Ecolo-
Heating and equipment
The CH4 and N2O emission projections giepremie+ subsidies (possible exten-
5.1.4.3.4 F-gas emissions in the sion beyond 2020 and to other technol- –– New dwellings:
for the industrial sector are made using the
industrial sector (CRF category 2) ogies); From 2018 onwards and following
emission inventory methodology reported
in the National Inventory Report. WEM scenario –– Support for new or existing training the implementation of the EC directive
centres with adequate equipment; on energy performance of buildings, it is
CH4 emissions in the industrial sector The F-gas emission projections are
–– Fostering of a Green Deal with the re- assumed that the heat demand of all new
originate mainly from the iron and steel drawn up from the model developed by
tail sector to reduce its use of F-gases single-family dwellings and apartments
sector in Flanders (sinter production). The ECONOTEC Consultants and VITO in the
to practically nil and its emissions to a comply with an E-level of 40. This E-lev-
same activity growth trend as mentioned in context of a study commissioned by the
minimum in 2030. el tightens gradually to 30 as of 2021 (Ta-
section 5.1.4.3.1 above are assumed. The Federal Department of the Environment on
behalf of the National Climate Commis- ble 5.7).
emission levels are directly linked with
this same growth trend. sion. 5.1.4.4 The residential sector –– Existing dwellings:
(CRF category 1A4b) For existing dwellings, the projected
The N2O emission originates from the WAM scenario
The climate regulations and measures fuel consumption in the WEM scenario is
production of caprolactam (Flanders) and In Wallonia, the WAM scenario con-
considered for the WEM and WAM pro- determined by:
nitric acid (Flanders, Wallonia). N2O emis- siders a decrease in the emissions of 50%
sion projections from caprolactam pro- by 2030 compared to 2005. The following jections are presented in more detail in the • The average fuel consumption in an
duction are based on information from the measures are considered: PAMs reporting. The assumed evolution of existing dwelling in 2018 and the
company concerned regarding activity data the population and the number of house- evolution of the number of dwell-
and implementation of reduction measures. –– Voluntary agreement with the food holds is discussed in section 5.1.3.4 above. ings;
In the WEM scenario the application of an distribution sector to reduce its GHG Estimates are made on the number of new • The impact of renewable ener-
end-of-pipe technique has been consid- emissions; dwellings. A distinction is made between gy policies (solar boilers and heat
ered. Additional reduction measures which –– Support for companies to encourage new and existing houses. pumps), autonomous boiler effi-
still require further research have been tak- the use of alternative refrigerant gases; ciency improvements and also ther-
en into account in the WAM scenario. It is –– Reinforcing training in the use of alter- mal insulation measures based on
assumed that projections of N2O emissions native refrigerants /alternative technol- the current subsidy system.
from nitric acid production in Flanders will ogies.
remain constant at the 2018 level. In the Flemish region, the WAM sce-
In Wallonia, projections of N2O emis- nario takes into account additional meas-
sions from nitric acid production are based ures included in the final Flemish Climate
Policy Plan for the period 2021-2030 and Table 5.7 E-level pathway for the residential sector (2018-2021)
on information from the company con-
cerned regarding activity data and imple- that aim at reducing the F-gas emissions to
mentation of reduction measures. Reduc- 0.6 Mton CO2-eq in 2030 for the Flemish 2018 2020 2021
tion measures were implemented in 2011, Region. The following additional meas- E-level 40 35 30
resulting in a large decrease of N2O emis- ures are considered:
sions. The emissions have been considered
5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures, and supplementarity relating to Kyoto protocol mechanisms 71
The main additional measures included trical appliances and lighting have been of existing housing is calculated based on the IPCC 2006 guidelines (CO2 and CH4)
in the WAM scenario are listed below: simulated taking into account the results of energy savings per type of renovation and and EMEP/EEA guidebook (N2O). Off-
the EU Reference scenario 2016. A yearly a number of annual renovations coherent road emissions from the residential sectors
◊ Accelerated renewal of heating sys-
increase of 0.1% in the period 2018-2020 with the results from energy grant system. are allocated to category 1.A.4.b.ii (Off-
tems;
and 0.2% in the period 2020-2040 has been road vehicles and other machinery).
◊ Prohibition on new gas connections Concerning the fuel mix, a set of tech-
considered in this regard.
in new residential complexes; nologies is described in the model by WAM scenario
◊ Optimisation of settings of existing Off-road means of standard parameters (efficiency,
The WAM scenario for residential sec-
heating systems; lifetime, …) which can evolve (improved
Off-road emissions of the residen- tor includes different measures:
◊ Demolition subsidy; tial sector are calculated using the OF- performance, …). Switching an installa-
◊ Stimulating implementation of 3 tion from fuel oil to natural gas heating –– For new building, energy autonomy
FREM-model with emission factors of the
out of 6 energy efficiency or renew- systems3 (so that the share of fuel oil in should go further (through voluntary
IPCC 2006 guidelines (CO2 and CH4) and
able energy measures within a peri- the total residential mix decreases from measures or studying regulatory re-
EMEP/EEA guidebook (N2O). Off-road
od of 3 years after acquisition of a 46% in 2018 to 28% in 2030) and share quirement strengthening, …).
emissions of the residential sectors are
of renewable energy (mainly biomass and –– For all buildings, more heat must be
dwelling; allocated to category 1.A.4.b.ii (Off-road
heat pumps) slightly increases in the fuel produced by renewable energy (bio-
◊ Reduction in VAT for renovations. vehicles and other machinery).
mix (thanks to EPB requirements for new mass, heat pumps, …), in accordance
Fuel mix Wallonia houses, …). with targets of the Walloon contribu-
tion to National Energy and Climate
The projected fuel mix of existing WEM scenario Other uses Plan 2021-2030.
dwellings starts from the current distri-
Space heating and hot water The demand for other energy services –– For existing buildings, the targets of the
bution of energy carriers and takes into
for the residential sector including light- “Long-term Renovation Strategy” and
account the expected yearly fuel switch For new dwellings, the heat demand
ing, cooking, refrigeration and freezing, its intermediate objectives are taken
(installation switch from fuel oil to natu- takes into account the current EPB reg-
the washing and drying of clothes, dish into account. It will reduce the envi-
ral gas heating systems) and the number ulation in Wallonia with the following
washing, as well as for other electricity ronmental impact of existing buildings.
of heat pump installations. An increased requirements from 2021: Ew = 45; Espec =
services, follows the evolution of the num- This strategy defines different objec-
number of heat pump installations has 85 kWh/m²/year (where Ew is the “prima-
ber of households. tives for energy efficiency of the enve-
been assumed in the WAM scenario. The ry energy consumption level” and Espec is
lope and the equipment of the existing
fuel mix for new dwellings depends on the the “specific primary energy consumption For electric equipment, new technol- buildings.
E-level pathway. level”). ogies are described according to the best –– Some behavioural changes.
For existing dwellings, 20 different cat- available technologies.
Equipment This scenario will require the imple-
egories of existing buildings are taken into
It is considered that 80% of the historic Off-road mentation of new measures or the im-
account. For each category, the surfaces
electricity was used for electrical applianc- The off-road emissions of the residen- provement/widening of some measures
and net needs are described. Retrofitting
es and lighting. The remaining 20% of the tial sector are calculated by using the OF- taking place in the WEM scenario.
options (roof, wall, floor and window) are
consumption is used for electric heating also differentiated according to the 20 cat- FREM-model with emission factors from
and sanitary hot water preparation. The egories of buildings defined above. A de- 3
Taking into account some limits linked to gas infra-
changes in the power consumption of elec- crease in the specific energy consumption structure, barriers to system change, …
5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures, and supplementarity relating to Kyoto protocol mechanisms 72
Brussels-Capital Region The measures taken into account in the jected period but the measures reach only years, which is the average lifetime of the
WEM scenario are related to the energy 10% of the total target. actions considered.
WEM scenario
management and technical installations in
The residential emission projections Another measure considered in the Finally, from 2007 to 2013, the Brus-
buildings. The technical reception of a new
consider the historic trends between 2001 WEM scenario is the energy grant system. sels Capital Region promoted the “Ex-
boiler installation is one of those measures.
and 2018 on energy consumption, house- The energy gains are estimated consider- emplary Buildings Project” (BatEx). The
In fact, when a new boiler is installed, the
hold size, and population. The projections ing the average gain from 2009 to 2018 objective of the project was to promote
entire heating system must be checked by
also reflect the application of the Brussels achieved by means of a building’s insu- ecological construction and passive build-
a certified technician; this action enables
Capital Region Government’s Decree4 re- lation, the use of double glazing, heating ings. The project allowed the construction
a reduction in consumption of 25% to be
garding Energy Performance of Buildings. regulation systems and by the replacement and renovation of approximately 214 000
achieved in the case of heating. The boiler
This decree considers that all new build- of boilers. The energy gain is considered m2 in the residential sector. The energy
replacement rate was estimated from the
ings will be nearly passive (15kWh/m2.yr) to last 20 years. This gain is multiplied gain is estimated to last 20 years.
data provided by the Belgian Association
by the annual budget; the WEM scenario
and that heavy renovated buildings will of Heating Technology (ATTB, French ac- WAM scenario
considers the budget proposed by the Gov-
consume 30kWh/m2.yr. ronym) and it was deduced based on the
ernment from 2019 (EUR 16.9 million) to The WAM scenario considers the im-
In addition, the WEM scenario includes number of boilers replaced by means of
2024 (EUR 38.7 million). After this peri- provement or the widening of some meas-
the measures adopted in the Brussels Code energy grants.
od, the scenario considers the end of the ures that take place in the WEM scenario
on Air, Climate and Energy Control (CO- The phasing-out of fossil fuels such as grant system. According to the grant sys- for the residential and tertiary sector. One
BRACE, French acronym) and the Air, coal and gasoil is considered in the WEM tem report concerning the year 2018, the such measure is the checking of boilers. In
Climate and Energy plan (PACE, French scenario. From 2021 onwards, the installa- residential sector benefits by 91% of the the WAM scenario, the effectiveness of the
acronym). The COBRACE reorganis- tion of any equipment that uses coal as fuel total budget. This percentage was used to measure increases to 25%. The budget for
es the Brussels legislation in these areas will no longer be allowed. Whilst this will estimate the energy reduction of this sector the energy grant system increases progres-
with a cross-cutting approach. This Code be the case for gasoil installations from and is kept constant. sively until 2030. For this year, the budget
includes measures assuring the improve- 2025. will be EUR 45 million. As in the WEM
Moreover, the energy gains achieved
ment of air quality, energy performance of scenario, 91% of the grants are awarded to
The third measure is also related to due to actions undertaken as a result of ad-
buildings, mobility evolution and citizens the residential sector.
the heating installations. The mandatory vice from household support are also es-
awareness. The PACE describes the Brus-
checks apply in the case of boilers that are timated. This measure considers a variety Finally, the strategy for reducing the en-
sels Capital Region long-term objectives
part of a heating system with a nominal of actions carried out by households thanks vironmental impact of existing buildings,
and measures to be implemented for the 5
power higher than 20kW that uses non-re- to the advice of the household’s support. known as “Renovation Strategy” is consid-
forthcoming years concerning air, energy,
newable fuel (gasoil and natural gas), and Actions such as changing the traditional ered in this scenario. The assumptions are
climate change mitigation and adaptation.
whose heat transfer fluid is water. An annu- shower head for an eco-shower, insulating based on the implementation of the 4 main
Finally, some measures that are sufficiently measures of building renovation: Roof,
al check is required in the case of oil-fired pipes and the hot water tank and the instal-
mature and are included in the PNEC are lation of a thermostat or regulator clocks, walls, floor insulation and the replacement
boilers and a regulation requiring natural
included in this scenario. gas boilers to be checked every two years among other things, are considered. Each of windows. These actions are executed
4
21 décembre 2007.- Arrêté du Gouvernement de has been in place since 2019. This check action has a specific energetic gain that according to the phases established in it,
la Région de Bruxelles – Capitale déterminant des generates energy gains of around 1% in makes it possible to determine an average which means that the reduction in energy
exigences en matière de performance énergétique
des bâtiments et du climat intérieur des bâtiments the case of gas boilers and 2% for oil-fired gain. The project came to an end in 2019, consumption will increase progressively
tel que modifié par l’arrêté du 5 mai 2011. boilers. This measure lasts the whole pro- however, the gains are assumed to last 14 and the first results will start in 2030.
5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures, and supplementarity relating to Kyoto protocol mechanisms 73
5.1.4.5 The Tertiary Sector Wallonia WAM scenario
(CRF category 1A4a) The WAM scenario for the tertiary sec-
WEM scenario
tor includes different measures:
Flanders Different energy services (heating, hot
In the WEM scenario, greenhouse gas water, cooling, and other services includ- –– In the case of new buildings, energy au-
projections are based on changes in activ- ing cooking, private and public lighting, tonomy will become more widespread
ities and energy efficiency in line with the refrigeration, and other electrical devices) (as a result of voluntary measures and
EU reference scenario 2016 and autono- and technologies are defined for 7 subsec- studies for the purpose of strengthening
mous boiler efficiency improvements. tors (education, health, culture and sports, regulatory requirements).
shops, private offices, public offices, data- –– In all buildings, more heat will be pro-
In the office buildings and education centres). duced by renewable energy (biomass,
buildings subsector, a tightening of the heat pumps, ….), in accordance with
E-level is taken into account for new build- Changes in demand are linked to GDP
targets of the Walloon contribution
ings (Table 5.8). growth5.
to National Energy and Climate Plan
The WAM scenario also includes: Some renovations are assumed, ac- 2021-2030.
cording to the results from support policies –– In existing buildings, the targets of the
–– the implementation of additional ener- (UREBA, …). “Long-term Renovation Strategy” and
gy saving measures as described in the its intermediate objectives are taken
reporting of the PAMS, resulting in an In the case of electrical equipment, new
into account. It will reduce the envi-
impact comparable with WAM mea- technologies are described according to the
ronmental impact of existing buildings.
sures in the residential sector best available technologies.
This strategy defines different objec-
–– the impact of renewable energy poli- During the period 2018-2040, the share tives for energy efficiency of the enve-
cies. of oil in final consumption is supposed to lope and the equipment of the existing
decrease slightly (from 17% to 13%), in buildings.
favour of gas and renewable energy (the
This scenario will require the imple-
main increase involving an increasing
mentation of new measures or the im-
share of biomass).
provement/widening of some measures
taking place in the WEM scenario.
2018 2020 2021 et al., 2020) for the short term and from European
E-level 50 45 40 projections (recommended parameters provided
by the European Commission for the mandatory
reporting of national GHG projections) for the me-
dium and long term.
5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures, and supplementarity relating to Kyoto protocol mechanisms 74
Brussels-Capital Region The decree concerning energy audits sector. The first one is the carrying out of Moreover, the strategy for reducing the
was adopted on 8 December 20168. Ac- technical checks of heating systems. The environmental impact of existing build-
WEM scenario
cording to this framework, big companies, theory underlining those checks are the ings, known as “Renovation Strategy” is
The main consideration for establish- defined by the number of employees and same as the ones that apply the residential evaluated in this scenario. The same as-
ing projections is the expansion of building their energy consumption, must carry out sector. The second one is the implementa- sumptions as for the residential sector are
surface due to the increase in employment an energy audit from 2018 onwards. This tion of the energy grant system; the only used.
as well as the information available in the involves an average of 18 additional audits difference is the proportion of the budget
regional energy balance. per year. In addition, the target is increased assigned to this sector; according to the
for commercial establishments, from 2018 5.1.4.6 The agricultural sector
The implementation of the Brussels grant system report concerning the year
onwards; commercial establishments with (CRF category 1A4c and 3)
Energy Performance of Buildings Decree6 2018, the tertiary sector uses 9% of total
is reflected in the projections. This meas- a surface area in excess of 1500 m2 must budget and it will be kept constant between Greenhouse gas emissions in the agri-
ure is applied for office and education perform an energy audit. 2019 and 2040. Finally, the BatEx project cultural sector mainly consist of CH4 and
buildings, starting from 2018. All new In addition, there is the mandatory im- that promoted the energy and environmen- N2O emissions originating from animal
buildings are considered nearly passive plementation of local action and energy tal performance, the profitability and re- husbandry and emissions from agricultural
(15kWh/m2.yr) and all heavily renovated management plans (PLAGE, French ac- producibility of the technologies and the soils.
buildings must achieve a very low energy ronym) in privately owned buildings with architectural quality and urban integration The livestock numbers mentioned in
level (45kWh/m2.yr). a floor area exceeding 100 000 m2 and of buildings was also applied in the tertiary CTF Table 5 were used in the projections.
As for the residential sector, the meas- public buildings with an area greater than sector. In fact, approximately 396 000 m2
ures included in the COBRACE and the 50 000 m2. The objectives of the PLAGE were constructed and renovated under this Flanders
PACE are part of the WEM scenario. The are to implement energy management project between 2007 and 2013. It is as- In 2018, energy consumption in the
first measure focuses on the major energy measures, handle energy invoices, increase sumed that the energy reduction obtained agricultural sector mainly originates
consumers. It contemplates the require- the degree of comfort experienced by us- thanks to the construction characteristics is from greenhouse heating systems (50%),
ment of an energy audit in order to obtain ers, improve air quality and reduce GHG destined to last for 20 years. non-stationary sources (fisheries, trac-
the renewal of the environmental permit emissions. This action got under way in
tors, ...) (11%) and the heating of stables
in the case of establishments exceeding 2019. The first phase will last for 6 years WAM scenario
(22%).
3500 m2 (7). The energy audit allows a re- and the subsequent phases will continue As mentioned before, some measures
duction of 13% of final energy consump- for 4 years. The objective of the PLAGE is from the WEM scenario are upgraded in Off-road emission projections are cal-
tion. to achieve a reduction in final energy con- culated using the OFFREM-model us-
the WAM scenario. Two of them are im-
sumption of 10% per phase. ing emission factors from the IPCC 2006
plemented in the tertiary sector. The first
Three measures already described in one is the checking of boilers; in the WAM guidelines (CO2 and CH4) and the EMEP/
the residential sector scenario (see sec- scenario, the effectiveness of the measure EEA guidebook (N2O). Emission projec-
6
21 décembre 2007.- Arrêté du Gouvernement de
tion 5.1.4.4) are also applied in the tertiary tions from sea-fishery are calculated using
la Région de Bruxelles – Capitale déterminant des increases to 25%. The second one is the en-
exigences en matière de performance énergétique the EMMOSS model (Emissiemodel voor
des bâtiments et du climat intérieur des bâtiments
ergy grant system that increases the budget
Scheepvaart en Spoor). Both models are
tel que modifié par l’arrêté du 5 mai 2011. 8
Arrêté du Gouvernement de la Région de Brux- progressively until 2030, the budget of
also used for the greenhouse gas inventory.
7
30 janvier 2012.- Arrêté du Gouvernement de la elles-Capitale relatif à l’audit énergétique des which will be EUR 45 million for 2030. As
Région de Bruxelles-Capitale relatif à un audit grandes entreprises et à l’audit énergétique du per-
énergétique pour les établissements gros consom- mis d’environnement approuvé en troisième lec- in the WEM scenario, 9% of the grants are The WEM projections for the green-
mateurs d’énergie. ture le 8 décembre 2016. used by the tertiary sector. house horticulture take into account an
5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures, and supplementarity relating to Kyoto protocol mechanisms 75
extension of current subsidies for energy The same figures are used in the WEM to their modelled emissions. Ultimately, Flanders
efficiency and renewable energy measures. and WAM scenarios and calculations fol- the regional projections (including their Different models were used for the var-
In the WAM scenario additional energy low the methodology of GHG inventories, respective shares of the surplus) are added ious modes of transport (road transport,
agreements have been taken into account. detailed in the National Inventory Report to each other to obtain the overall Belgian railway transport, inland shipping, mar-
of the 2021 submission. projection. itime shipping and aviation). The models
The CH4 and N2O emission projections
take all policy measures, listed in the CTF Brussels-Capital Region Biofuels calculate the use of energy and the emis-
Table 3, into account and new assumptions sions based on the transport flows (vol-
Greenhouse gas emissions in agricul- The share of biofuels in transport fuels
on the evolution of the animal herd: an umes). In the case of road traffic, railway
ture mainly consist of CH4 and N2O emis- is one of the important factors determining
overall decrease in the cattle herd, a sta- traffic and inland shipping, the specialised
sions originating from animal husbandry the emission levels. The shares of biofuels
bilisation of the number of poultry and a Flemish multimodal traffic model was
(enteric fermentation and manure man- used in the regional road transport models
slight decrease in the number of pigs due to used to calculate the transport flows.
agement) and direct and indirect emissions are harmonised on the basis of this federal
new regulation on investment support for
from managed soils. Agricultural emis- PAM. Table 5.9 provides an overview of Road transport
the purpose of manure management.
sions are very low in the Brussels Capi- the assumed blends of biodiesel in diesel The calculation of atmospheric pollut-
Wallonia tal Region. The stabilisation of the sector and bioethanol in gasoline in the WEM
ants emissions and energy consumption for
is assumed since further expansion is not scenarios.
Energy related emissions in the agri- road transport is based on projection stud-
possible; therefore the values remain con-
cultural sector in the Walloon Region, in- Apart from the harmonised shares of ies performed by VITO for the Flemish
stant.
cluding the emissions from the gasoil of biofuels in road transport, the rest of the government using the Fastrace model (see
tractors and other mobile equipment, are transport sector modelling takes place by Annex 3). Only motorised traffic (excl.
limited (356 ktCO2e for the whole period). 5.1.4.7 The Transport Sector means of specific regional models. These pedestrians and cyclists) is included in the
(CRF category 1A3) are described below. projections.
CH4 and N2O emission projections take
into account the recent evolutions of activ- General remarks regarding road
ity data: transport projections
–– livestock: an overall decrease in cattle Projections for the road transport sec-
and an increase for all the other live- tor are performed combining 3 regional Table 5.9 Overview of the assumed volumetric and energetic shares of biofuels
stock categories; bottom-up calculations (“fuel used” basis). in transport fuels in the WEM and WAM scenarios
–– surface area used for agriculture: kept The sum of the three regional values for
constant up to 2030; the reference year (2018) is then compared
–– use of fertiliser: a reduction in the use to the top-down data (or the “fuel sold” ba- % Net Calorific Value
of mineral fertilisers and an increase sis as reported in the Belgian CRF inven- 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040
for the organic fertilisers. tory data). Subsequently, the aggregated bioethanol 6.5 8.95 8.95 8.95 8.95
growth in the bottom-up models is applied WEM
For some parameters, the mean values biodiesel 5.3 8.95 8.95 8.95 8.95
in the past few years are carried forward to the difference between the bottom-up
bioethanol 6.5 10 10.45 10.45 10.45
up to 2030, in the absence of any other in- and top-down calculations (the so-called WAM
surplus), which is then allocated to the re- biodiesel 5.3 10 10.45 10.45 10.45
formation (e.g. milk yield, crop residues).
gions on a proportional basis, according
5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures, and supplementarity relating to Kyoto protocol mechanisms 76
The GHG projections take 2018 as Rail transport
the base year. The confirmed policies and Emissions of rail transport only in-
measures are taken into account in the Table 5.10 Repartition passenger cars (WEM scenario)
clude the emissions originating from diesel
WEM scenario. These include the national trains, while energy figures include energy
and regional planned improvements of the % Stock vehicle 2018 2030 2040
use by electric trains as well. The applied
public transport network, the redesigning growth in transported volumes determines Electricity 0.0% 12.1% 26.0%
of some urban areas to promote soft modes train-kilometres, which in turn determine CNG 0.1% 0.5% 0.4%
of transport (walking, cycling) and the the evolution of the emissions. The shares Diesel 55.6% 39.1% 20.0%
implementation of road pricing for heavy of diesel and electric traction are consid-
goods vehicles used for the transportation Diesel hybrid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
ered constant over the projected period.
of freight. No new Flemish measures are The evolution of the transported volumes Fuel cell electric vehicle 0.0% 0.7% 3.2%
assumed in the WEM scenario after 2019. is based on one of the most plausible sce- LPG 0.2% 1.6% 0.9%
From the base year 2018 onwards, the ex- narios in the Flemish mobility plan, which Petrol 43.1% 29.5% 17.2%
pected evolution of mobility and transport is currently under development.
demand in Flanders in the WEM scenario Petrol hybrid 1.0% 16.4% 32.3%
was used to calculate the number of ve- Inland Waterways and Short-sea Shipping
hicle kilometres per vehicle type and fuel Emissions of inland waterways and
type for the period 2018-2040. The overall short-sea shipping are based on the evolu-
composition of Flemish vehicle fleet was tion of the transported volumes under the Wallonia In the case of passenger cars and de-
modelled for the period 2018-2035, based same scenario as rail transport. spite an augmentation of electric and pet-
on the fleet in 2018 and considering the WEM scenario
rol hybrid vehicles, conventional vehicles
composition of new vehicles (i.e. remain- Off-road emissions Road transport remain the main technologies operating up
ing stable at the 2018 level in the WEM Emission of off-road activities in har- to 2030. In 2040, the situation is different,
The projections of the overall mobility
scenario) and survival rates of the vehicles bours, airports and transhipment compa- in that there are more electric and hybrid
are calculated using the principle of mo-
over the same period. nies are allocated to CRF category 1A3e. petrol vehicles than conventional ones (see
bility demand (projections of the Federal
Additional measures to reduce the The emissions projections are calculated Planning Bureau9). The projections of the Table 5.10) due to the different European
number of vehicle kilometres and aiming using the country-specific OFFREM-mod- vehicle fleet are calculated using survival legislation in force.
to achieve a significant shift to electric, el and using emission factors from the curves based on historic inventory data and In the case of heavy duty and light
plug-in hybrid or charge sustaining hybrid IPCC 2006 guidelines (CO2 and CH4) and on European legislations in force (Regula- commercial vehicles, diesel convention-
vehicles, have been taken into account in EMEP/EEA guidebook (N2O). tions 2019/631 and 2019/1242). The emis- al models remain dominant (respectively
the WAM scenario. Additional measures Pipeline transport sion factors for existing vehicles are cal- 87.7% and 80% of the stock in 2030 and
are expected to reduce the number of ve- culated from historic inventory data (year 65% and 56% in 2040). The tonnes/km that
hicle kilometres compared with the WEM Emissions originating from the com- 2018) and emission factors for new tech-
pression activities in the sector ‘storage exists today and will increase by 2040.
scenario. The Flemish Clean Power for nologies are estimated in the Sibyl baseline
Transport Plan 2020 and draft Vision 2030 and transport of natural gas’ are reported model.
will lead to a shift towards cleaner vehi- in CRF category 1A3e. The emissions are
cles. This vision includes a target of 50% assumed to remain constant at 2018 levels. For more information see: https://www.plan.be/
9
5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures, and supplementarity relating to Kyoto protocol mechanisms 77
Rail transport of electric, petrol hybrid and CNG vehicles ble way. Regularly updating models on the In the case of road transport, the WEM
An increase of the emissions due to the increases by 2030 (respectively to 21%, basis on the best available data collected scenario also considers the implementa-
increase of transport by rail has been as- 20% and 20% in 2030). through studies or actors is an important tion of a Low Emission Zone (LEZ) on a
sumed. point of attention. regional level, which implies that the ve-
Total demand for freight transport is
hicles that do not respect the established
kept constant for the whole period and the Brussels-Capital Region
Inland vessels thresholds (based on fuel and EURO
modal share by road is 77% in 2030 (84%
Navigation WEM scenario standards) are banned. This measure has
in 2016).
Projections of transport emissions a significant influence on some pollutants
The demand for the transportation of
Rail transport consider road and off-road transport, rail- affecting local air quality, but a rather lim-
goods by inland vessels will increase.
ways, inland navigation, and natural gas ited impact on GHG emissions and climate
The modal share of rail transport with-
Aviation transport. Road transport emissions repre- change.
in the passenger transport as a whole in-
Demand for aviation is assumed to be creases up to 15.7% by 2030 (9% in 2017). sent 94.3% of the total GHG emissions of Rail transport
related to the increase in households and In the case of freight transport, the modal transport (in 2018). The main hypotheses
are described in the following paragraphs. For railways, the evolution of liquid
population. share of rail transport increases by as much
fuel (gasoil) consumption is derived from
as 13% of overall freight transport by 2030
WAM scenario Road transport the evolution in freight transport demand
(9% in 2016).
The calculation of atmospheric pollut- in Belgium as a whole. The starting point
WAM scenario includes the FAST vi-
Navigation ants emissions and fuel consumption for of the projections (2018) comes from
sion and the regional strategy of mobili-
road transport is based on the European the regional energy balance. The GHG
ty (passengers and freight). FAST vision For navigation, the modal share for
COPERT IV approach. The main input data emissions increase by about 26 t CO2-eq.
identifies different objectives with regard freight transport increases up to 10% of the
required for COPERT simulations (vehicle between 2015 and 2020, and reach 3.4
to future mobility in Wallonia in 203010 total tonnes/km in 2030 (7% in 2016).
and the strategy of mobility defines how fleet and mobility) comes from a region- kt CO2-eq in 2040. Passenger transport
these objectives will be achieved. This Aviation al transport model, developed on the basis (trains, metro and tramways) is powered
scenario will require the implementation of literature data TREMOVE projections by electricity; the increase in electricity
As for the WEM scenario, demand for
of new measures or the improvement/wid- and INRETS study11), and recalibrated to consumption projected between 2020 and
aviation is assumed to be related to the in-
ening of some measures taking place in the the actual situation in the Brussels-Cap- 2040 is 34%, this figure having been es-
crease in households and population.
WEM scenario. ital Region using emission inventories timated using the data provided by Brux-
Wallonia is in a transition period and is and outputs from a detailed traffic model elles Mobilité.
Road transport currently developing new projection mod- (MUSTI).
els to estimate transport (TIMES, Sibyl, Navigation
In the case of passenger cars, demand The policies and measures taken into
decreases under the impulsion of a de- see Annex 3). The baseline scenario has In the case of inland navigation, the
been produced with these models. The account for the simulations refer to WEM evolution in liquid fuel (gasoil) consump-
creasing modal share of cars (from 83% scenario.
in 2017 to 62% in 2030), a rise in the car WAM has been produced with a previous tion is derived from the developments in
occupancy rate (from 1.3 in 2017 to 1.5 in projection tools used in the previous re- demand for freight transport on a Belgian
2030) and a reduction of 5% of the overall port. Ultimately, the idea is to perform all level. The starting point of the projections
the scenarios with the same tool(s), while 11
INRETS. Transport routier - Parc, usage et émis- comes from the regional energy balance.
demand for passenger transport. The stock sions des véhicules en France de 1970 à 2025. s.l. :
ensuring that the different models used are Institut National de Recherche sur les Transports et Projections show an increase in GHG
The 2030 results are kept constant until 2035.
10
linked together in the most effective possi- leur Sécurité (INRETS), 2004. emissions. In 2020, emissions from inland
5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures, and supplementarity relating to Kyoto protocol mechanisms 78
navigation will be 1.98 kt CO2-eq, and in In addition to the “Good Move” Plan, projection period. Emissions due to the posal on land sites originate when recov-
2040 they will be 2.23 kt CO2-eq. the government of the Brussels Capital use of aerosol cans are also estimated in ered emissions are used or flared via in-
Region has decided to implement a pro- the BCR inventory considering a constant stallations with energy recuperation. These
Natural gas transport gressive phasing-out of fossil fuel-based consumption per inhabitant. The emission emissions are reported in the energy sector
The emissions originating from natural combustion engines in the Region. Die- projections of aerosol cans are based on (CRF category 1A1a and 1A4a).
gas transport are kept constant and equal sel-powered light vehicles will be banned population data from the FPB (see section
CH4 and N2O emissions from waste-
to the emissions of year 2018 for the en- from 2030 onwards, and gasoline and GPL 5.1.3.4).
water handling in Flanders (CRF category
tire projection period since there are not light vehicles from 2035 onwards.
5D) are based on projections with respect
available projections for this sector. It is
5.1.4.9 Non-energy products from fuels to the evolution of population and of the
important to mention that in 2018, this sec-
5.1.4.8 The ‘Other product manufacture and solvent use (CRF category 2D) number of people connected to wastewater
tor represented 0.05% of total natural gas
and use’ Sector (CRF category 2G) handling systems until 2040.
consumption. Flanders
Only the use of N2O as an anaesthetic CO2 emissions from municipal waste-
Off-road emissions The emissions of non-energy products
and in aerosol cans is included in this cat- water treatment is set to zero in the projec-
Projected off-road emissions for all resulting from fuels and solvent use are
egory. tions because these emissions derive from
sectors and vehicle categories come from considered constant at the 2018 level for
biomass raw materials.
the OFFREM model. Flanders the entire projection period.
The waste incineration category in-
N2O emissions from this use are kept Wallonia
WAM scenario cludes the incineration of municipal and
constant at 2018 emission levels. The most
The emissions of non-energy products industrial waste, the incineration of hospi-
Road transport recent historical value has been considered
from fuels and solvent have remained sta- tal waste and the incineration of corpses. In
The “Good Move” Plan is the region- constant for the entire projection period.
ble for 10 years. Those emissions are kept Flanders, only the fraction of organic-syn-
al mobility plan. Developed on the basis Wallonia constant for the entire projection period. thetic waste is taken into consideration to
of a dynamic and participatory process, estimate the CO2 emissions originating
Good Move defines the Region's mobility N2O emissions from this use in Wallon- Brussels-Capital Region from waste incineration. As mentioned
objectives and actions in the period be- ia are kept constant at 2018 emission lev-
The use of non-energy products is kept in section 5.1.4.1, the projections for the
tween now and the year 2030. It focuses els. Due to the lack of information about
constant for the entire period. waste incineration plants with energy recu-
on six frames and is based on the imple- the evolution of consumption, the most
peration are allocated to the energy sector.
mentation of fifty measures. According recent historical value has been considered
to preliminary estimates, the Good Move constant for the entire projection period for 5.1.4.10 The Waste Sector CO2 emissions from flaring in the
plan could help bring about a reduction in both the WEM and the WAM scenario. (CRF category 5) chemical industry are allocated to the
vehicle-kilometres covered by light vehi- waste sector (CRF category 5C) and are as-
Brussels-Capital region Flanders sumed to remain constant at the 2018 level.
cles in the Brussels Capital Region of 21%
The use of N2O as an anaesthetic and Projections of CH4 emissions from the
from 2018 to 2030. The priority objectives CH4 emissions from composting (CRF
in aerosol cans is included in this category. solid waste disposal on land (CRF catego-
of Good Move Plan regarding energy and category 5B) are kept constant at current
The information on use is based on the re- ry 5A) are calculated taking into account a
climate are to reduce the use and owner- emission levels.
gional sales. The most recent historic value ban on organic waste dumping since 2000.
ship of cars, to increase the modal shift and
has been considered constant for the entire CO2 emissions from the solid waste dis-
to green the fleet.
5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures, and supplementarity relating to Kyoto protocol mechanisms 79
Wallonia The waste incineration category in- 5.1.4.11 The Land-Use and Land- 15 March 2021) which has not yet been
Projections of CH4 emissions from the cludes the incineration of municipal solid Use Change and Forestry Sector integrated in the Forest Reference Level
solid waste disposal on land in Wallonia waste, the incineration of hospital waste (CRF category 4) 2021-2025. A technical correction of the
take into account the implementation of and flaring in the chemical industry. The Forest Reference Level will be prepared
The approach for the LULUCF WEM
the Order of the Walloon Government of CO2 emission projections originating from before the final accounting for 2021-2025.
projections consists of extrapolating the
18 March 2004 banning the dumping of hospital waste incineration are integrated Hence, no accounting exercise is made at
recent trends of land use changes towards
municipal waste into landfills since 1 Jan- in the waste incineration sector. The emis- Belgian level neither.
2040 on the basis of the most recently inte-
uary 2008, which has yielded a decline in sion projections of the municipal waste
grated data of the Land Use Change Matrix
degradable organic carbon (DOC) content incineration plants (with energy recupera-
in the LULUCF emission inventory. Both 5.1.5 Differences in methodology and
(municipal waste being mainly organic). tion) are allocated to the energy sector.
CO2 and N2O emissions are taken into ac- assumptions
Nevertheless, the amount of total waste CH4 and N2O emissions from compost- count. No WAM scenario is available for There have been some changes in the
disposed is considered constant and equal ing in Wallonia are kept constant at current LULUCF. The WAM scenario has there- modelling tools used by the Walloon Re-
to the latest available data (2019). The emission levels. fore been equated with the WEM scenario gion since the last reporting of the national
methodology used for calculation is the one in the reporting. communication and biennial report, due to
The figures reported under WEM and
described in the most recent 2006 IPCC WAM scenario are the same. The trend is adjusted for specific land the development and the first exploitation
guidelines and in the National Inventory use categories, based on the following hy- of “TIMES-Wal” (supplemented by an Ex-
Report of the 2021 submission. The recov- Brussels-Capital Region potheses: cel tool at this stage), which replaces EPM
ery rate of landfill gas is assumed to remain The waste sector takes into account model.
constant at the level recorded in 2019 (the –– The land use change from grassland to
the emissions from water treatment plants, The main differences in assumptions
latest available data). CO2 emissions from cropland will stop from 2025 onwards
composting installations and waste incin- are:
the solid waste disposal on land-based sites –– The soil organic carbon in grassland
erators. In the case of the wastewater han-
come from the use of recovered emissions will remain constant from 2030 on- –– A new base year (2018 in NC8/BR5
dling emissions, only the N2O emissions
that are used or flared via installations with wards versus 2014 in NC7 and 2016 in BR4);
are considered in the projections since the
energy recuperation. These emissions are –– In Wallonia, the conversions to set- –– Different climate assumptions (1 821
biogas produced is used in a CHP instal-
reported in the energy sector. tlements are gradually being reduced, degree-days in NC8/BR5 versus 1 807
lation. Projections are based on the pop-
based on available projections regard- degree-days in NC7/BR3 and 1 870
CH4 and N2O emissions resulting from ulation evolution (see section 5.1.3.4).
ing artificialisation of soils degree-days in BR4 using reference
wastewater handling in Wallonia are kept The compost centre started in 2002 and
emissions from composting are kept con- The Flemish region did not account 15/15);
constant at current emission levels. CO2
stant for the projected period. The waste for the projected removals from ‘managed –– More recent demographic projections
emissions from municipal wastewater
incinerator in Neder-Over-Heembeek is forest land’ due to a recent change of Car- based on prospects presented in 2020
treatment are not included in the projec-
not included in the waste sector due to the bon Uptake Factor in Flemish forests in the by the Federal Planning Bureau (Table
tions because the carbon derives from bi-
energy recovery process. This installation LULUCF emission inventory (submission 5.11).
omass raw materials.
is included in the energy sector.
5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures, and supplementarity relating to Kyoto protocol mechanisms 80
–– Activity assumptions for industrial sec-
tors were adapted to more recent eco-
nomic projections;
–– Assumptions for the buildings now in-
clude the new policy initiatives up to
and including 2019;
–– Livestock numbers have been adjusted
based on more recent information (Ta-
ble 5.12).
Table 5.12 Differences in livestock numbers (NC8/BR5 versus NC7 and BR4)
Table 5.11 Differences in demographic projections (NC8/BR5 versus NC7 and BR4) NC7
Dairy cattle 426 414 398 398
Demographic projections Non-dairy cattle 2 023 1 918 1 822 1 822
Sheep 113 101 138 138
2020 2025 2030 2035
Pigs 6 488 6 245 6 085 6 085
NC7
Poultry 39 414 39 618 40 506 40 506
Population of Belgium (thousands) 11 756 11 989 12 208 11 519
BR4
Number of households in Belgium (thousands) 5 155 5 296 5 436 5 019
Dairy cattle 448 432 417
Average household size in Belgium 2.28 2.26 2.25 2.30
Non-dairy cattle 2 022 1 938 1 859
BR4 Sheep 117 115 113
Population of Belgium (thousands) 11 511 11 773 11 995 Pigs 6 451 6 380 6 310
Number of households in Belgium (thousands) 4 956 5 092 5 222 Poultry 44 752 48 404 52 190
Average household size in Belgium 2.32 2.31 2.30 NC8/BR5
NC8/BR5 Dairy cattle 475 457 439 427
Population in Belgium (thousands) 11 488 11 695 11 886 12 066 Non-dairy cattle 1 935 1 856 1 782 1 725
Number of households in Belgium (thousands) 4 941 5 072 5 202 5 323 Sheep 135 136 136 137
Average household size in Belgium 2.32 2.31 2.28 2.27 Pigs 6 379 6 291 6 204 6 219
Poultry 44 551 48 112 51 791 52 849
5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures, and supplementarity relating to Kyoto protocol mechanisms 81
5.1.6 The ‘with existing measures’
greenhouse gas emission projections
Tables 5.13, 5.14 and 5.15 summarise Table 5.13 Greenhouse gas emissions by policy sector (WEM scenario) Mt CO2-eq
the compiled ‘with existing measures’ pro-
jections for the period 1990-2040. For the 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
period 1990-2020, this concerns inventory
data. Total excluding LULUCF 145.7 153.6 148.9 145.5 133.6 119.0 117.6 106.4 121.0 126.1 126.1 124.1
More detailed information on these Total including LULUCF 142.8 151.3 147.2 143.8 133.3 118.1 117.0 106.1 119.8 124.7 124.8 122.8
projections can be found in the projections EU ETS (in accordance
template reported under Article 18 of Reg- with ETS scope 2013- n.a. n.a. n.a. 66.7 54.8 44.7 44.2 41.5 50.4 56.5 57.6 56.5
ulation (EU) 2018/1999. More aggregated 2020)
projection results are included in CTF Ta- ESD (in accordance with
n.a. n.a. n.a. 78.6 78.8 74.2 73.4 64.9 70.6 69.6 68.4 67.6
ble 6. ETS scope 2013-2020)
LULUCF -2.9 -2.3 -1.7 -1.8 -0.4 -0.8 -0.6 -0.3 -1.2 -1.4 -1.3 -1.3
Table 5.14 Greenhouse gas emissions by IPCC sector (WEM scenario) Mt CO2-eq
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
1 Energy 103.8 107.7 106.2 105.8 99.5 87 85.2 77.0 92.3 98.2 98.5 96.8
1A Fuel combustion 102.5 106.8 105.3 105 98.8 86.3 84.5 76.4 91.6 97.5 97.9 96.2
1A1 Energy industries 29.7 29.3 28.5 29.0 26.2 20.9 19.7 19.0 24.1 30.4 31.6 30.9
1A2 Manufacturing industries
23.5 23.2 21.7 18.9 16 13.9 14.1 13.1 16.2 16.3 16.5 16.7
and construction
1A3 Transport 20.9 23 25 26.8 26.7 26.9 26.2 21.7 27.8 27.8 27.2 26.6
1A4 Other sectors 28.2 31.2 29.9 30.1 29.8 24.6 24.4 22.5 23.5 23 22.5 22
1A5 Other 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
1B Fugitive emissions from fuels 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
2 Industrial processes 26.1 30 28.3 27.1 22.1 20.9 21.7 18.9 18.6 18.1 17.9 17.9
3 Agriculture 11.5 11.6 10.7 9.7 9.5 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.1 9 8.8 8.7
4 LULUCF -2.9 -2.3 -1.7 -1.8 -0.4 -0.8 -0.6 -0.3 -1.3 -1.4 -1.3 -1.3
5 Waste 4.3 4.3 3.8 3.0 2.5 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.9 0.8 0.8
5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures, and supplementarity relating to Kyoto protocol mechanisms 82
Table 5.15 Greenhouse gas emissions by gas, excluding LULUCF (WEM scenario) Mt CO2-eq
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
CO2 120.3 126.0 126.7 125.6 114.6 101.1 100 90.4 106.9 112.7 113.2 111.6
CH4 11.5 11.3 10.2 8.6 8.2 7.6 7.3 7.1 6.8 6.5 6.4 6.2
N2O 10.1 10.8 10.2 8.5 7.5 6.0 5.6 5.4 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4
F-gases 3.8 5.5 2.1 2.8 4.3 4.3 4.8 3.6 1.9 1.3 1.1 1.0
Table 5.16 Greenhouse gas emissions by policy sector (WAM scenario) Mt CO2-eq
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Total excluding LULUCF 145.7 153.6 148.9 145.5 133.6 119.0 117.6 106.4 111.7 105.4 99.5 94.3
Total including LULUCF 142.8 151.3 147.2 143.8 133.3 118.1 117.0 106.1 110.5 104.0 98.2 93.0
EU ETS (in accordance with
n.a. n.a. n.a. 66.7 54.8 44.7 44.2 41.5 51.3 54.6 54.6 54.5
ETS scope 2013-2020)
ESD (in accordance with
n.a. n.a. n.a. 78.6 78.8 74.2 73.4 64.9 60.4 50.8 44.8 39.8
ETS scope 2013-2020)
LULUCF -2.9 -2.3 -1.7 -1.8 -0.4 -0.8 -0.6 -0.3 -1.2 -1.4 -1.3 -1.3
5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures, and supplementarity relating to Kyoto protocol mechanisms 83
5.1.7 The ‘with additional measures’
greenhouse gas emission projections
Table 5.17 Greenhouse gas emissions by IPCC sector (WAM scenario) Mt CO2-eq
The effect of the additional measures
included in the WAM scenario results in
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
the emission projections described in Ta-
bles 5.16, 5.17 and 5.18. For the period 1 Energy 103.8 107.7 106.2 105.8 99.5 87 85.2 77.0 83.8 79.2 73.7 69.0
1990-2020, this concerns inventory data. 1A Fuel combustion 102.5 106.8 105.3 105 98.8 86.3 84.5 76.4 83.1 78.6 73.1 68.3
More detailed information on these 1A1 Energy industries 29.7 29.3 28.5 29.0 26.2 20.9 19.7 19.0 24.8 27.9 28 27.9
projections can be found in the projections 1A2 Manufacturing industries
23.5 23.2 21.7 18.9 16 13.9 14.1 13.1 15.4 15.4 15.2 15.2
template reported under Article 18 of Reg- and construction
ulation (EU) 2018/1999. More aggregated 1A3 Transport 20.9 23 25 26.8 26.7 26.9 26.2 21.7 22.5 18.3 16 14.2
projection results are included in CTF Ta- 1A4 Other sectors 28.2 31.2 29.9 30.1 29.8 24.6 24.4 22.5 20.3 16.8 13.7 10.9
ble 6. 1A5 Other 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
1B Fugitive emissions from fuels 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
2 Industrial processes 26.1 30 28.3 27.1 22.1 20.9 21.7 18.9 18.3 17.4 17.4 17.4
3 Agriculture 11.5 11.6 10.7 9.7 9.5 9.3 9.3 9.3 8.6 8 7.6 7.1
4 LULUCF -2.9 -2.3 -1.7 -1.8 -0.4 -0.8 -0.6 -0.3 -1.2 -1.4 -1.3 -1.3
5 Waste 4.3 4.3 3.8 3.0 2.5 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.9 0.8 0.8
Table 5.18 Greenhouse gas emissions by gas, excluding LULUCF (WAM scenario) Mt CO2-eq
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
CO2 120.3 126.0 126.7 125.6 114.6 101.1 100 90.4 98.5 93.8 88.6 83.9
CH4 11.5 11.3 10.2 8.6 8.2 7.6 7.3 7.1 6.4 5.7 5.3 5.0
N2O 10.1 10.8 10.2 8.5 7.5 6.0 5.6 5.4 5.1 4.8 4.6 4.5
F-gases 3.8 5.5 2.1 2.8 4.3 4.3 4.8 3.6 1.9 1.0 1.0 0.9
5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures, and supplementarity relating to Kyoto protocol mechanisms 84
5.1.8 Sensitivity analysis
Sensitivity analyses are performed for Table 5.19 Parameter values used for the sensitivity analyses
some important parameters such as the
number of degree-days and importing of
Number Net electricity import WEM [TWh] Net electricity import WAM [TWh]
electricity. Indirect effects, however, are
of heating
not taken into account. Scenario days
(2020- 2025 2030 2035 2040 2025 2030 2035 2040
Two parameters were varied in a sen-
sitivity analysis (see Table 5.19): the num- 2040)
ber of heating days and the net imports of Base scenario 1 821 8.1 13.0 13.0 13.0 7.3 8.5 9.0 9.3
electricity. This leads to four scenarios: 1) 1: Warm scenario 1 441 8.1 13.0 13.0 13.0 7.3 8.5 9.0 9.3
warm scenario (a low number of heating 2: Cold scenario 2 145 8.1 13.0 13.0 13.0 7.3 8.5 9.0 9.3
days as recorded in 2014), 2) cold scenar-
3: Low electricity import 1 821 3.1 8.0 8.0 8.0 2.3 3.5 4.0 4.3
io (a high number of heating days as re-
corded in 2013), 3) lower electricity im- 4: High electricity import 1 821 13.1 18.0 18.0 18.0 12.3 13.5 14.0 14.3
port (–5 TWh compared to base scenario)
and 4) higher electricity import (+5 TWh
compared to base scenario). For the four
scenarios, the total WEM and WAM emis-
sions were calculated (see Table 5.20).
Table 5.20 Greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF for the different scenarios of the sensitivity analysis, Mt CO2-eq
5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures, and supplementarity relating to Kyoto protocol mechanisms 85
5.1.9 Comparison with previous projection
results
The projection results presented in this
report are compared with the previous re-
ports (NC7 and BR4) in Figure 5.1 and
Figure 5.2. The main differences can be Figure 5.1 Comparison of total GHG emissions excluding LULUCF (projections in this
explained by the different sectoral assump- report versus projections in NC7 and BR4), Mt CO2-eq
tions as described in chapter 5.1.4., result-
ing in a more ambitious WAM scenario in
140
this report.
120
100
5 Was
80 3 Agr
20 1A4 C
1A3 T
0
1A2 M
WEM NC7
WEM NC8/BR5
WAM NC8/BR5
WEM NC7
WEM NC8/BR5
WAM NC8/BR5
WEM NC7
WEM NC8/BR5
WAM NC8/BR5
WEM NC8/BR5
WAM NC8/BR5
WEM BR4
WAM BR4
WEM BR4
WAM BR4
1A1 E
5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures, and supplementarity relating to Kyoto protocol mechanisms 86
Figure 5.2 Comparison of non-ETS GHG emissions excluding LULUCF
(projections in this report versus projections in NC7 and BR4), Mton CO2-eq
80
70 5 Waste
60
3 Agriculture
50
GHG emissions (Mton CO2-eq)
2 Industrial processes
40 5 Waste
3 Agriculture
1B Fugitive emissions from fuels
30
2 Industrial processes
20 1A5 Other
1B Fugitive emissions from fuels
1A5 Other
10 1A4 Commercial / residential / agricul ture
1A4 Commercial / residential / agriculture
0 1A3 Transport
1A3 Transport
WEM NC7
WEM BR4
WEM NC8/BR5
WAM BR4
WAM NC8/BR5
WEM NC7
WEM BR4
WEM NC8/BR5
WAM BR4
WAM NC8/BR5
WEM NC7
WEM NC8/BR5
WAM NC8/BR5
WEM NC8/BR5
WAM NC8/BR5
1A2 Manufacturing industries and construction
1A1 Energy industries
1A2 Manufacturing industries and construction
5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures, and supplementarity relating to Kyoto protocol mechanisms 87
5.1.10 Conclusion
5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures, and supplementarity relating to Kyoto protocol mechanisms 88
5.1.10.2 Comparison with the Effort 5.1.10.3 Future developments
Sharing Decision Target (2021-2030)
By 30 June 2023, Belgium must sub-
In Figure 5.4, the non-ETS emission mit to the Commission a draft update of
projections from the WEM and the WAM the latest notified integrated national en-
scenario are compared with the Effort ergy and climate plan (followed by a final
Sharing Regulation targets from Com- version of this update by 30 June 2024)
mission Implementing Decision (EU) in accordance with Article 14 of the EU
2020/2126. Interpolation was used to de- Governance Regulation. As a result of this
termine emissions in the years 2021-2024 update, Belgium will also develop updated
and 2026-2029. In the case of the WEM projections that will take into account the
scenario, the emission targets are exceeded latest policy insights. On some points, this
in all years of the period 2021-2030. In the may lead to substantial differences com-
WAM scenario, the non-ETS objectives pared to the projections presented in this
are not exceeded in any year. However, document. Reference can be made in this
as the projections (AR4) and the non-ETS respect to a recent decision of the federal
targets (AR5) are based on different GWP government, including an extension of the
values, it should be noted that both datasets service-life of two nuclear power plants
Figure 5.4 Comparison of WEM and WAM non-ETS projections with non-ETS target
are not yet fully comparable. (2GW of nuclear capacity) and the acceler-
(2021-2030)
ated construction of the offshore capacity.
80
70
60
GHG emissions (Mton CO2-eq)
50
40
30
20
10
0
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures, and supplementarity relating to Kyoto protocol mechanisms 89
5.2 Assessment of aggregated effects of policies
and measures
5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures, and supplementarity relating to Kyoto protocol mechanisms 90
5.3 Supplementarity relating to mechanisms under article 6, 12 and 17,
of the Kyoto protocol
In general, in the EU, the use of flexible 5.3.1 Regarding the ETS In addition to this limit of 3%, some –– For 2016: 74 063 149 AEAs were re-
mechanisms can take place on the one hand Since 2013, it is no longer possible to Member States fulfil additional criteria as tired, and zero project-based credits.
by operators in the EU ETS, on the other track the use of flexible mechanisms in the laid down in ESD12 Article 5(5). Belgium –– For 2017: 70 824 562 AEAs were re-
hand by governments for the achievement EU ETS directly via information on EUTL (together with Austria, Cyprus, Denmark, tired, and zero project-based credits.
of ESD targets. public website because CERs and ERUs Finland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Por- –– For 2018: 74 253 859 AEAs were re-
are no longer surrendered directly but are tugal, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden) fulfils tired, and zero project-based credits.
A limited number of international cred-
exchanged into EUAs. These exchanges these criteria and therefore, an additional –– For 2019: 72 013 554 AEAs were re-
its may be used to achieve the targets:
will become public on installation level use of credits is possible from projects in tired, and zero project-based credits.
–– In the ETS, the use of international after three years, with the first informa- Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and –– For 2020: 64 904 157 AEAs must be
credits is capped (up to 50% of the re- tion reflecting the use in 2013 available in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) up retired. Although the 2020 ESD com-
duction required from EU ETS sectors 2016. For information on the use of flexi- to an additional 1% of Belgium’s verified pliance cycle at EU level will only be
by 2020). Quality standards also apply ble mechanisms in the ETS, please refer to emissions in 2005. For Belgium, the year- completely finalized by mid-March
to the use of international credits in the the 2nd,3rd, 4th and 5th BR of the European ly additional number of credits that can be 2023, the required AEAs are available
EU ETS, including a ban on credits Union. used is 0.84 Million CERs and ERUs from and hence no project-based credits will
from LULUCF projects and certain in- LDC and SIDS. These credits are not bank- need to be retired.
dustrial gas projects. able nor transferable.
5.3.2 Regarding the ESD In conclusion, for the complete period
–– In the ESD sectors, the annual use of
An overview of Belgium’s compliance 2013-2020 – and although the compliance
international credits is limited to up to There is an annual limit of 3% for the use of AEAs and project-based credits un- of the year 2020 still has to be finalized
3% of each Member State's ESD emis- use of project-based credits for each Mem- der the ESD during the period 2013-2020 yet – Belgium will have met its year-
sions in 2005, with a limited number ber State (MS). This amounts to approxi- is provided below. ly target under the ESD for each year of
of Member States (including Belgium) mately 750 Mt of international credits that the entire period, without using any pro-
being permitted to use an additional can be used during the period from 2013 to –– For 2013: 74 264 633 AEAs were re-
ject-based credits or other MS’s AEAs. ■
1% from projects in Least Developed 2020 in the ESD. tired, and zero project-based credits
Countries (LDCs) or Small Island De- (CERs, ERUs).
veloping States (SIDS), subject to con- For Belgium, the number of credits that –– For 2014: 70 054 910 AEAs were re-
ditions. can be used between 2013 and 2020 is 2.51 tired, and zero project-based credits.
Million CERs and ERUs per year. If these –– For 2015: 72 719 520 AEAs were re-
are not used in any specific year, the un- tired, and zero project-based credits.
used part for that year can be transferred to
other Member States or be banked for the
country’s own use until 2020. Decision No 406/2009/EC
12
5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures, and supplementarity relating to Kyoto protocol mechanisms 91
6.1 Introduction
assessment,
is to contribute to a more climate-resilient ap to a future National Adaptation Plan
Europe. (NAP) and some policy guidelines for an
adapted future.
To achieve this, the strategy focuses on
i m pac t s a n d
the National Climate Commission. In ac-
level;
cordance with the decision of the National
–– better-informed decision-making;
Climate Commission of 27 June 2013, this
–– taking better account of adaptation in
a dapt at i o n
plan aims to: provide clear and concise in-
the most vulnerable sectors (‘climate
formation on adaptation policies and their
proofing’).
implementation in Belgium; identify na-
m e a s u re s
The European Commission adopted its tional measures to strengthen cooperation
new EU strategy on adaptation to climate and develop synergies between different
change on 24 February 2021. The new governments (federal, regional) on adapta-
strategy sets out how the European Union tion. It identifies specific adaptation meas-
can adapt to the unavoidable impacts of ures that need to be taken on a national lev-
climate change and become climate-resil‑ el in order to strengthen cooperation and
ient by 2050. The Strategy has four princi- develop synergies between the different
pal objectives: to make adaptation smart‑ entities on adaptation. The Plan addresses
er, swifter and more systemic, and to step 6 sectors and transversal issues: biodiver-
up international action on adaptation to sity, crisis management, energy, health, re-
climate change. The new strategy builds search and international cooperation.
on the 2018 evaluation of the first strategy.
The first mid-term evaluation (FR and
NL) of this plan was completed in February
2019 and reflected an initial positive trend
for adaptation. The subsequent final eval-
uation (FR and NL) in late 2020, focusing
92
on the final implementation, indicated that In July 2020, the Flemish Government concrete measures that will facilitate –– In January 2014, the Walloon govern-
the positive trend was sustained. In addi- presented its Blue Deal to combat wa- the elaboration and implementation of ment adopted its “Climate Decree” giv-
tion to the positive progress, remaining ter scarcity and drought. The Blue Deal the plan. ing a legal framework to climate policy
work items came into focus which may lay is based on 6 principles: in Wallonia. The main implementation
at the base of a possible follow-up. Based 1. Flanders builds and connects instrument is the “Air-Climate-Ener-
• Public administrations give a good greenblue infrastructure, always
on the final evaluation, a new national ad- gy Plan” (PACE), which is a part of
example and provide the appropri- and everywhere
aptation plan is in process of development. a dynamic process that provides for
ate legislation
2. Water availability and water use public participation upstream and an
Since its 7th National Communication, • Circular water use becomes the rule
3. Space for water in function of annual report to the Government and
Belgium has made significant progress in • Agriculture and nature as part of the
water security and prevention of Parliament downstream, which allows
the field of adaptation. The regional and solution
drought it to be adapted. The first PACE, PACE
the federal governments are all developing • To raise awareness amongst indi-
2016-2022, was adopted after a pub-
new adaptation plans, each in their own viduals and to stimulate de-pave- 4. Restoration and climate smart na-
lic consultation in 2016 and contains
area of competence: ment ture and forest management a section on adaptation. This section
• To increase the security of supplies 5. Climate adaptive policy on health
–– The Flemish Climate Policy Plan 2013- summarises the impacts & vulnerabil-
• Together, we invest in innovation in 6. Cooperation and coordination
2020, including a section on adaptation ity assessments and the detailed ad-
order to create a smarter, more re-
known as the Flemish Adaptation Plan –– A new Integrated Air-Climate-Energy aptation actions in several sectors and
silient and sustainable water system
(VAP). The primary goals were under- Plan of the Brussels-Capital Region for includes about 20 adaptation measures.
standing Flanders’ vulnerability to cli- The Flemish Blue Deal forms part of the period 2023-2027 is being adopted. PACE 2016-2022 is followed by PACE
mate change and improving its ability the Flemish Recovery plan “Flemish It includes detailed adaptation mea- 2030, which includes new policies and
to defend itself against the effects of cli- Resilience” funded by the EU Recov- sures in several sectors with a focus on measures to achieve set out in the Eu-
mate change. The concurrent pursuit of ery Fund. nature based solutions. Other themat- ropean Union’s Energy Union frame-
these goals can be described as the “cli- ic plans with adaptation measures are work for energy, climate and for air
After the summer of 2022, the Flemish
mate reflex”. The 11 involved Flemish the regional water management plan quality. Besides the sectoral actions,
Government adopted a new Flemish
governmental departments maintain re- adopted on 26 January 2017 for the the financial and technical support to
Adaptation Plan 2030. It aims to create
sponsibility for the actions in their poli- period 2016-2021, which completely the local level (municipalities) is still
a resilient Flanders against the effects
cy domain and they will bear the cost of integrates the theme flood; a new wa- present with dedicated budget and call
of climate change on the short and the
these actions using their usual financial ter management plan, which is being to projects to create and develop green
long term (2050) with nature based
resources. In 2015, Flanders developed adopted for the period 2022-2027 and areas to adapt to impacts such as floods,
solutions and technological innova-
a first progress report 2013 – 2015 on addresses not only the topic of flooding droughts and heat waves in the Walloon
tion as the most important allies. The
climate change, including a section on but also addresses droughts and water municipalities.
Flemish adaptation policy searches for
adaptation. A second progress report scarcity and contains a specific chap- After the severe floods of July 2021,
maximal synergies with other policies
2016-2017 on climate change adapta- ter on adaptation; the new “Forêt de Walloon Government created a special
like climate change mitigation, biodi-
tion was published in 2017. Soignes” (Sonian Forest) management commission to coordinate the studies
versity and spatial planning. He Flem-
ish climate adaptation plan is based on plan for the period 2019-2043 (2019) and the work to rebuild in a sustainable
6 strategies. Each of these strategies and its Nature Plan (2016). way the areas affected by the floods.
consists of several action points with A lot of resources have been released
to provide a support service to the vic-
1
Anomaly (°C)
-1
-2
-3
1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
150
7. P rov i s i o n
This financial, technological and capaci- yearly to international climate finance.
ty-building support to non-Annex I Parties Since then, support for climate action has
mainly focused on: significantly exceeded this target. On aver-
Res ourc e s a n d
eral support in the form of grants; In parallel to its long-standing provi-
–– Contributions mainly directed towards sion of public climate finance to devel-
Africa and Least Developed Countries oping countries, Belgium also supports
Tr a n s fe r o f , (LDCs);
–– Contributions to climate-specific mul-
tilateral funds (Green Climate Fund,
the efforts of developing countries to im-
plement low-emission, climate-resilient
projects and programmes (i) by providing
Tec h n olo g i e s
agencies; public means, private investments for cli-
–– Contributions to bilateral projects mate-related projects in developing coun-
mainly directed towards African part- tries.
ner countries and Least Developed
Countries.
106
Figure 7.1 Trend in climate finance 2013-2020
Cross-cutting/multisector
3% Agriculture, forestry, fishing
3% Environment
Energy
Water and sanitation
9% 34% Humanitarian Aid
Education/capacity building
Disaster reduction and prevention
12% Job creation
Health
Awareness raising
Banking and financial services
15%
16% Rural Development
Figure 7.2 Belgian Climate Finance in 2019-2020, distribution per type of support Government and civil society
other
Belgium is a federal state and, given ropean and international commitments Since then, each entity committed to at fight against climate change, desertifica-
this institutional context, several federal in climate and energy policy by 2020. It least maintain this level of contribution, in tion and global deforestation, as matters of
and regional level government depart- focuses on greenhouse gas emissions re- line with the continuation of the existing priority. Overall policy coherence for de-
ments are involved in the development and duction targets for non-ETS sectors, the collective mobilisation goal through 2025, velopment is an important priority within
implementation of climate change policies. share of renewable energies in final ener- as agreed at the 21st UNFCCC COP in Par- Belgium’s development cooperation.
gy consumption and the contribution to is, France.
As the regional governments have In the coalition agreement (2019-
international climate finance. Regarding
competencies in fields that are connected The federal part of the Belgian climate 2024), it is stipulated that the Government
the contribution to international climate
with their region or territory (water policy, finance is mainly delivered by means of the of Flanders continues to highlight inter-
finance, an internal distribution ratio was
the environment, nature conservation, etc.) budget for development cooperation. The national climate ambition by providing
agreed to meet Belgium’s announcement
and have powers relating to international Law on development cooperation of 19 international climate finance, preferably
to contribute annually EUR 50 million in
relations in those fields, they are also play- March 2013 sets out the goals and priori- through projects in which Flemish organ-
2016-2020:
ing an active role in the international as- ties of Belgium’s international cooperation. isations contribute.
pects of climate change, such as providing –– Federal government: EUR 25 million This law stipulates that in its programmes
and mobilising climate finance. –– Government of Flanders: EUR 14.5 and activities of development cooperation,
million Belgium must strive to achieve sustainable
A cooperation agreement on the inter-
–– Government of Wallonia: EUR 8.25 and inclusive economic development and
nal burden sharing of Belgium’s climate
million poverty alleviation. Furthermore, this law
and energy objectives for the 2013-2020
–– Government of Brussels-Capital Re- lays down the protection of the environ-
period enables Belgium to respect its Eu-
gion: EUR 2.25 million ment and natural resources, including the
7.3.1 Financial contributions to multilateral butions are not earmarked and are prefera- small-scale producers to be more resilient During the reporting period, Belgium
institutions and programmes bly multi-annual to allow for stable, secure to climate shocks, with climate adaptation provided EUR 30 million to the Global
As a long-standing donor in terms of and predictable funding and to increase solutions available through national inno- Environment Facility, an operating entity
climate finance, Belgium’s federal and transparency and efficiency. vation systems, turn agriculture and forest of the financial mechanism under the UN-
regional governments contribute to the systems into a net sink for carbon by 2050, FCCC. This contribution is also un-ear-
In 2016, new Framework Arrange-
Green Climate Fund (GCF), the Global with emissions from agriculture decreasing marked.
ments (FAs) were signed between the Bel-
Environment Facility (GEF), the Least by 1 Gt per year by 2030 and reaching a
gian government and its 15 multilateral Considering the needs of the most vul-
Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) and floor of 5 Gt per year by 2050.
partner organisations. These FAs are used nerable countries, Belgium therefore fo-
the Adaptation Fund. Other contributions to underline the commitment to work joint- Other multilateral partners of Belgium cused its support on financing adaptation
towards multilateral climate action are also ly to implement the 2030 Agenda for Sus- such as the World Bank Group play an activities and on strengthening the resil-
reported in CTF Tables 7a (Irena, African tainable Development and as a basis for important role in mobilising international ience of least developed countries. The
Climate Change fund, Climate and Clean long-term cooperation. climate finance. Of course Belgium also Least Developed Countries Fund was a
Air Coalition). The provision of this cli- contributes to the different funding in- significant channel through which Belgium
mate-specific funding is in addition to Belgian partner organisations such
struments that form part of the European provided large parts of its international cli-
non-earmarked contributions to multilat- as the Food and Agriculture Organiza-
international cooperation (through the EU mate finance (EUR 25.6 million).
eral institutions and specialised UN agen- tion (FAO), United Nations Development
budget, the European Development Fund
cies. Climate-specific funding, earmarked Programme (UNDP) and United Nations In the reporting period, Belgium also
and European Investment Bank), which
for a specific country, in partnership with Environment Programme (UNEP) are con- provided EUR 18.4 million EUR to the
fund several programmes and activities
a multilateral actor is included in CTF Ta- tributing significantly to the fight against Adaptation Fund, which finances projects
to mitigate climate change and support
bles 7b (bilateral funding). climate change through the programmes and programmes that help vulnerable com-
countries in their adaptation efforts. For
and projects in their portfolios. Belgium munities in developing countries adapt to
The majority of multilateral funds example, 27% of the Global Public Goods
also supports CGIAR by providing core re- climate change.
come from Belgium’s federal development Programme of the EU Development Coop-
sources. Agricultural research is indispen-
cooperation budget, which has sustainable eration Instrument is dedicated to climate
sable to help secure food and nutrition secu-
development and poverty alleviation as its change and other environmental issues.
rity in vulnerable countries and to improve
most important goals. An overview of core contributions to these
farmers’ livelihoods. Through research and
organisations is included in CTF Table 7a,
In 2009, Belgium adopted a strategic innovation, CGIAR aims to contribute, to
but these are not reported as specific cli-
core policy towards its multilateral partner implement all National Adaptation Plans
mate finance.
organisations. This means that most contri- and Nationally Determined Contributions
to the Paris Agreement, equip 500 million
JOB CREATION
EDUCATION
ENVIRONMENT
HUMANITARIAN AID
CROSS-CUTTING/MULTI-SECTOR
ENERGY
8.1.1 General trends of climate research R&I supporting the achievements of the
since 2017 decarbonisation, renewables and energy
Climate-related questions and chal- efficiency ambitions; low- carbon technol-
8. Res e a rc h lenges are too large and too complex to ogy, circular economy, all with benefits in
be addressed by a single country, agency, terms of GHG emissions reduction.
or discipline. Belgian climate research is
a n d sys t e m a t i c
Because studying the linked prob-
framed in a worldwide coordinated effort. lems of energy sustainability and climate
The financial resources allocated to cli- change requires an integrated science that
obs e r v a t i o n
mate research in Belgium have increased extends beyond the domain of engineering
considerably [see Figure 8.1] since 2017, (e.g. renewable energy) or economics (e.g.
Belgian research has been better and better circular economy) it was decided to try to
embedded in international research initi- circumscribe the present chapter to invest-
atives, the number of publications has in- ment in climate science and science at the
creased, and more and more climate relat- crossroads of climate and energy only.
ed data have been produced, processed and Belgian research addresses the whole
are accessible today for further research or spectrum of climate related issue and spans
policy developments [see 8.1.7 and sys- over all temporal and spatial scales.
temic observation chapter 8.2].
The research operators, namely the
If basic research aiming at reducing public scientific institutions, the universi-
uncertainties on climate evolution and ties and other research centres contribute
involving academical scientists is still to different elements of this spectrum, de-
strongly supported in Belgium, an in- pending on their own missions, the instru-
crease is observed of support towards the ments, and sources of funding available.
development of solution-oriented research [see 8.1.3]
or policy driven research involving both
Despite the relative increase of climate
scientific experts and policy experts. [see
related research within a total R&D en-
8.1.7]
velop and the shift observed regarding the
Moreover, strong investment is dedicat- nature of research carried out in Belgium,
ed to research and innovation in the energy the climate research landscape remains
sector as part of the implementation of the very fragmented, and there is scope for in-
Belgian National Plan on Energy and Cli- creasing the synergies between actors. [see
mate, launched in 2019. This includes the 8.1.5]
115
Based on this observation the Secretary –– Strategic research: seeks to under- 8.1.3 The R&D funding sources and At the Federal level
of State in charge of Scientific Policy, in- stand the impacts and associated risks instruments
BELSPO, the federal administration
itiated the creation of a climate centre at of climate change: rising global tem- Climate research relies on many differ- for science policy, directly supports cli-
federal level, joining the efforts of several peratures causes sea-level rise, alters ent sources of funding, some of which (e.g. mate research via several funding mech-
institutions. The climate centre will pursue biodiversity, forests, crop yields and institutional funding in larger organisations anisms: projects funding via national and
three main objectives: (i) gathering and water supplies. Changing climate also – see Chapter 7.3.1) are very difficult to es- pan-european calls; R&D activities out-
strengthening the resources for climate affects human and animal health and timate or attribute to climate research with side EU through bi-lateral or multilateral
research and develop a strategic climate their ability to exist in certain ecosys- any precision. European, Federal, regional cooperation; funding for Belgian and EU
research agenda in Belgium (ii) establish- tems. This research is generally imple- and community levels of authorities, all research infrastructure.
ing a structural cooperation between scien- mented through national or internation- contribute to the total mix. Total Belgian
tific operators and (iii) developing climate al networks in which academic Belgian direct R&D expenditure (GBAORD - gov- While they are currently undergoing a
services in response to the needs of policy high-level scientists are involved. Re- ernment budget appropriations or outlays review and changes are possible, the fed-
makers and sectors. The climate centre will search focuses on policy-development for R&D, see NC7) increased from EUR eral tax incentives for R&D are significant
be launched in 2022. or policy implementation at Interna- 846 million (1990) to EUR 3 255 million for all R&D in Belgium, public as well as
tional, European, national or regional (2019) in constant prices. private (https://www.nbb.be/doc/ts/pub-
level. lications/economicreview/2020/ecorev-
8.1.2 The categories of climate-related The relative distribution of this be-
–– Response based/solution-oriented ii2020_h4.pdf).
research tween the different federated entities was
research: includes mitigation and ad-
Research carried out in Belgium can aptation related research. This type of in 2019: federal government 17.9%, Flan- In Flanders Region and the Flemish
be categorised as follows: [see details in research generally seeks to adopt trans- ders Government 59.6 %, French-speaking Community
8.1.7] disciplinary approaches where both Community 12.1%, Walloon Region 8.7%,
Brussels-Capital Region 1.6%1. Matters of Economy, Science and Inno-
–– Fundamental research: seeks to un- stakeholders (sectoral practitioners,
vation policy in the Flemish Government
derstand how the climate system is including private sectors) and scientists Sources and quantities of competitive are under the responsibilities of the De-
working ; how global, regional, and are involved. Such ‘co-production’ of funding for research related to the climate partment of Economy, Science and Inno-
local climates are maintained as well knowledge is becoming more preva- are more easily identifiable. Hence, this vation (Dept. EWI), the Agency Flanders
as the processes by which they change lent. Development of so-called Climate section will attempt to provide information Innovation & Entrepreneurship (VLAIO)
over time. It investigates causal re- Services falls under this research cate- on overall state of relevant funding sources – a one-stop shop for all R&D funding for
lations of climate change, both in the gory. and provide information on trends where companies – and the Research Foundation
past (based on historical data) and in –– Building blocks of research infra- reliable information is available. – Flanders (FWO) funding research in uni-
the future (through modelling). This structures: are developed for obser‑
versities and other regional research insti-
research is generally implemented vations purpose. They refer to the
tutions.
through networks at a Pan-European or development of a specific institutional
international level but also through na- setting to deliver specific services to An overview of this system is described
tional small-scale networks or even by scientific users, relying on components in ‘STI in Flanders’: Science, Technolo-
individual post-doc researcher. or assets of several decentralised cli- gy & Innovation. Brief Overview 2022.
mate related infrastructures (from ES- (https://ewi-vlaanderen.be/sites/default/
1 Source: http://www.belspo.be/belspo/organisation/
FRI roadmap in particular). files/sti_overview_brochure_2022.pdf)
Publ/pub_ostc/BRISTI/MINIPUBL_2009-2019i_
nf.pdf.
Number of documents
makes “traditional” researchers collab- Climate related publications
programmes, town and country planning, orate with citizens. 600
equipment and transport, sustainable ener- Total Belgian publications / 100
–– Experimental Platforms programmes:
gy and buildings, etc. 500
these fund the experimentation and
Research participants are mainly com- testing of innovative projects targeting 400
panies, universities, higher education insti- sustainable transition.
–– Prospective research: projects to identi- 300
tutes, research centres and public research
bodies. fy future social, economic and environ- 200
mental challenges for the city, which
In the Federation Wallonia-Brussels lead to policy recommendations and 100
therefore provide a concrete example
Funding from the Federation Wallo- 0
of evidence-based policy making.
nia-Brussels to its universities is mainly 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
managed by the F.R.S.-FNRS (“Fonds de Year
la recherche Scientifique”).
Previous reporting period Recent quinquennium Previous reporting period Recent quinquennium
ENTITY Category of R&D ENTITY Category of R&D
2012-2016 ( ~ NC7) 2017-2021 (NC8) 2012-2016 ( ~ NC7) 2017-2021 (NC8)
budget in budget in budget in budget in
number of number of number of number of
EUR in EUR EUR in EUR
projects projects projects projects
millions millions millions millions
FLANDERS WALLONIE BRUSSELS
/ / 128 38.2
climate research for which metadata is 235 53 610 107 FEDERATION
available in FRIS, with Flemish funding Funder:
Climate Fundamental / / 88 23
Climate Fundamental 80% 83% 92% 88% FNRS
Climate Solution oriented Climate vs all research / / 2.8 % 3.2%
(applied and policy 16% 17% 7% 12% Funders Climate (Solution
oriented) H2020 + oriented applied and / / 40 15.2
All research 13 413 2 730 20 652 3 900 BELSPO policy oriented)
Climate vs all research 1.8% 1.9% 3.0% 2.8% FEDERAL / / 27 6.03
BRUSSELS REGION / / 237 44.4 Climate research for which metadata is
11 3.10
Climate Fundamental / / 0% 0% available in FEDRA with BELSPO funding
Climate Solution oriented Climate Fundamental / / 10% 10%
(applied and policy / / 100% 100% Strategic/ Solution
oriented) oriented (applied and / / 90% 90%
All research / / 1 793 227.8 policy oriented)
Climate vs all research / / 13.2% 20.9% Climate strategic research for which
metadata is available in e-CORDA with 16 2.93
WALLOON REGION 989 230 648 164
EU funding
Climate Fundamental 0% 0% 0% 0%
Climate / all research 25% 10%
climate Solution
oriented (applied and
100% 100% 100% 100%
policy oriented- energy Note: Some discrepancies appear in the Table 8.1 e.g. energy efficiency are included in the table in
efficiency between the figures reported by the different Regions, relation to investment in applied research.
All research 7 664 1 695 5 046 1 465 in particular in Brussels and Wallonia, where, unlike
Flanders, projects (or parts of projects) dealing with
Climate vs all research 13.6% 14.5%
9. P u bl ic
enquete and klimaat.be/enquete.
ing relating to this issue. It essentially pres-
ents the activities organised or financed by In addition, the Flemish Department of
the public sector, but also actions undertak- Environment and Spatial Planning (PBM
e duca t i o n
ble by public funds. It is therefore not an
exhaustive list. Finally, a list is provided of support for the transition to a climate
relevant internet sites. neutral and climate proof society. The
a n d t r ai n i n g
basis is a hypothetical behavioural model
The latest (fifth) public survey was that aims to understand and predict peo-
launched by the Federal Climate Change ple's behavioural intentions and actual
Service in 2021, in order to gain a better behavioural changes in the shift towards
understanding (and how this changed since a climate neutral society. By carrying out
2005) of the knowledge of the general pub- a periodic survey of Flemish citizens, this
lic about the problem of climate change support monitor aims to:
(such as its causes and consequences),
of the subjective interpretation (urgency, –– map the current support among the
government efforts, possibility of personal Flemish population for the transition to
contribution, etc.) and of personal attitudes a climate-neutral and climate-resilient
(the willingness of each person to do some- society (baseline measurement).
thing about it). –– detect and understand variations in the
support for the climate transition with-
Amongst other things, the 2021 sur- in the Flemish population and to identi-
vey indicated that climate change remains fy policy-relevant segments within the
'uppermost in people’s minds': 80% of Flemish population.
Belgians see climate change as a problem –– detect and understand evolutions (long-
that requires urgent action. Six Belgians term trends) in this support base.
out of ten are convinced that the EU and –– provide insights for target group-fo-
Belgium must reduce their greenhouse gas cused policy and communication strat-
emissions by 55% by 2030 and become cli- egies to strengthen support for the cli-
mate-neutral by 2050. They expect better mate transition.
131
9.2 Raising awareness implications to be visualised in the form
of graphics. This work is being comple-
inate environmental information via its
website, magazines, brochures and leaf-
mented by educational activities (available lets, by organising the annual Environment
in English, French and Dutch): an educa- Festival (to raise public awareness to envi-
tional “My2050” web tool (see 9.3.4) and ronmental issues in a festive atmosphere)
In order to raise public awareness, RAISING AWARENESS OF GLOBAL
“climate coaches” (see 9.3.5). and through the organisation of communi-
activities addressing the global warming WARMING
cation campaigns (television ads, posters,
issue directly or indirectly – by making Since July 2019, a national website on
announcements in the press) on climate
reference to specific themes such as energy 9.2.1 Awareness raising by the federal and the subject of adaptation to climate change
change, rational use of energy, promoting
savings, energy efficient buildings, envi- regional governments has been available online. It provides ex-
energy-saving investments and on ecomo-
ronmentally friendly mobility, or broader isting information on climate change im-
Communication from the federal au‑ bility. In 2018, the Region opened a per-
pacts, vulnerability assessments and adap-
themes such as the environment and sus- thorities to the public is undertaken by manent exhibition space on the climate and
tation in Belgium (adapt2climate).
tainable development – are organised ev- the Climate Change Service of the Fed- the cities of tomorrow, which addresses the
ery year across the country. These large- eral Public Service Health, Food Chain The regions are also taking initiatives various climate issues in an interactive
scale initiatives are supplemented by more Safety and Environment. The cornerstone that are bringing the situation of the living way for schoolchildren. This exhibition
specific efforts at awareness-raising or by of its communication is the climate web- environment in general and the data con- is part of an “educational continuum” that
easily applicable practical solutions in- site climat.be / klimaat.be, which provides cerning climate change in particular into provides an opportunity to establish links
tended for certain target groups such as the sections addressing the causes and effects focus. with school programmes and offer activi-
young, energy managers in companies or of climate change, the policy put in place ties before and after the visit (environne-
Flanders publishes these data in the
on an international, European and Belgian ment.brussels/www.belexpo.brussels – see
other professional groups (architects, heat- MIRA annual indicator reports and in the
level, Belgium’s emissions, IPCC reports, 9.3.6).
ing technicians, mobility managers, etc.). online catalogue of indicators that are up-
international cooperation, etc., along with dated annually and accessible on https:// In Wallonia, the Walloon Agency for
In Flanders, the Department of Envi- sections devoted to federal campaigns, ac- omgeving.vlaanderen.be/mira-milieurap- Air and Climate (Agence wallone de l’Air
ronment and Spatial Planning (PBM Di- tions to be taken by individuals, education port-vlaanderen. MIRA also published a et du Climat - AwAC) makes available to
vision) aims to translate insights from the etc. A news section regularly draws atten- detailed report about what climate change individuals, businesses, municipalities and
behavioural sciences into climate policy. tion to the latest developments (the results means (or will mean) for Flanders and Bel- event organisers a carbon
In this way, knowledge is built on effective of COPs, published reports and actions gium specifically in the “MIRA Climate footprint calculator carbon
climate communication by searching, to- taken). Report 2015: about observed and future footprint calculators, which
gether with Flemish partners/climate com- A subsidiary website (climatechange. climate changes in Flanders and Belgium” can be used to assess one’s
municators, for climate-related messages be/2050 - climat.be/2050 - klimaat. (with an accompanying video summary and carbon emissions in order
that will motivate the Flemish population. be/2050) provides information relating to infographic). The English version of the to raise awareness of the
In cooperation with its partners, the Flem- the work being carried out in order to bring report is available at https://researchportal. impact of carbon emissions
ish government will test different (exist- about the transition to a climate-neutral so- be/en/publication/climate-report-2015. and to help prioritise cli-
ing and new) climate messages to find out ciety in Belgium by 2050. The core of this mate actions. In 2017, the AwAC launched
In the Brussels-Capital Region, the
what kind of frames and narratives work an online adaptation platform for munici-
project is the study of different transition environmental administration ‘Brux-
and which ones work less well with differ- palities. A vulnerability evaluation tool and
scenarios, based on an online calculator elles-Environnement’ (Brussels Environ-
several action sheets have been designed
ent target groups. that allows the possible scenarios and their ment) is continuing to publish and dissem-
157
Annex 2. 5th biennial report
1 Preamble 2 Information on greenhouse gas emissions and
trends
This Annex 2 to the Belgium’s 8th Na- –– progress towards the achievement of
tional Communication under the UNFCCC quantified economy-wide emission re- 2.1 Summary information on GHG emission 2.2 National inventory arrangements
constitutes the 5th Biennial Report of Bel- duction targets (Section 4); trends Small changes have occurred since
gium drawn up in accordance with the –– Projections (Section 5); Belgium reduced its total GHG emis- the 7th Belgian National Communication
United Nations Framework Convention –– Provision of financial, technological sions between 1990 and 2020 by 26.9%. and 4th Biennial Report. Belgium focused
on Climate Change (UNFCCC) biennial and capacity building support to devel- These emissions amounted 106.4 Mt eq. mainly on the jurisdiction changes in the
reporting guidelines for developed-country oping-country Parties (Section 6); CO2 in 2020 (excluding LULUCF) and regions and details are provided in chapter
Parties contained in Decision 2/CP.17, and –– Other reporting matters (Section 7). 106.1 Mt eq. CO2 (including LULUCF). 3.3 of NC8.
takes into account recommendations for-
As requested (Decision 19/CP.18 - For further information on emissions
mulated by the expert review team in the
Document: FCCC/CP/2012/8/Add.3), the trends, please refer to chapter 3.2 and CTF
context of the technical review of the 7th
Common Tabular Format (CTF) (annexed Table 1.
national communication and 4th biennial
to this report) has also been input into the
report of Belgium (FCCC/IDR.7/BEL and The trends discussed below are based
BR-CTF electronic reporting application.
FCCC/TRR.4/BEL). on the greenhouse gas emissions invento-
Tabular information as defined in the ry published on 23 May 2022 on the UN-
In line with UNFCCC biennial report-
common tabular format (CTF) for the UN- FCCC website and covers the years 1990
ing guidelines for developed-country Par-
FCCC biennial reporting guidelines for to 2020. Global warming potentials and
ties, the information is structured as fol-
developed country Parties (UNFCCC de- sector classification are based on the UN-
lows:
cision 19/CP.18) has been submitted to the FCCC reporting guidelines under Decision
–– Information on greenhouse gases UNFCCC through the electronic reporting 24/CP.19.
(GHG) emissions and trends (Sec- facility provided by the UNFCCC Secre-
tion 2); tariat as required by UNFCCC decision 19/
–– Quantified economy-wide emission re- CP.18.
duction target (Section 3);
4.1 Introduction Because of the achievement of the EU without recourse to any other flexibility.
The EU has substantially overachieved target as a whole, Belgium is deemed to The COVID-19 crisis contributed signifi-
its reduction target under the Convention, have achieved its target also, regardless of cantly to the overachieving of the target
which means that its Member States and whether it has achieved its own target un- in 2020, even though the trend was rather
the United Kingdom have also fulfilled der the ESD. unfavourable just before and even though
their emission reduction obligations. As the accumulated surpluses could probably
However, for the sake of completeness
stated in the 2022 EU GHG inventory sub- have made up the shortfall. However, the
and transparency in relation to previous
mission to the UNFCCC, total GHG emis- recovery of emissions after the crisis puts
BRs, we report here on Belgium's commit-
sions, excluding LULUCF and including Belgium on an unfavourable trajectory
ments under the ESD. Table B shows that
international aviation, decreased by 34% in in view of the more ambitious targets ex-
Belgium, in accordance with the EU mech-
the EU-27 + UK compared to the base year pected for the coming period from 2021 to
anisms in place, has been able to meet its
1990 or 1.94 billion tons of CO2e (carbon 2030 and beyond.
annual targets by drawing on its banked
dioxide equivalent). surpluses from previous years as needed,
Table B Belgian Annual Emission Allocation for the years 2013 to 2020 calculated by applying global warming potential values from the
fourth IPCC assessment report (in tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent), Belgian ESD verified emissions for the years 2013 to 2020 and
cumulative emission surplus until 2020
Belgium’s domestic arrangements re- the Belgian climate and energy objec-
lated to self-assessment of compliance tives for the period 2013-2020, which
with emission reduction commitments provides the legal basis for the deci-
at European and international levels, as sions to be taken to respect Belgium’s
well as the establishment of national rules commitments under the European “Cli-
for taking local action against domestic mate & Energy Package”. Chapter 2
non-compliance with emission reduction (Section 6) of this cooperation agree-
targets, include: ment addresses regional and federal
–– The special law establishing a climate compliance rules, including the possi-
accountability mechanism for increas- bility for the Regions to use credits and
ing awareness of climate responsibili- the provision of financial compensation
ty among the Regions for the building by the Federal state to the Regions in
sector (see BR4, chapter 4.2.1.3) case of non-compliance with the objec-
–– A right of substitution for international tives. The second progress report (FR/
obligations under the UNFCCC and its NL) on the implementation of the co-
Protocols (see BR4, chapter 4.2.1.4) operation agreement was published on
–– The cooperation agreement of 12 Feb- 20 July 2022. Negotiations on a new
ruary 2018 between the Federal state cooperation agreement for the period
and the three regions on the sharing of 2021-2030 are under way. ■
Commercial
Industry
Energy production
an important point of attention. Population Employment Energy intensity Sources and
evolution installations
Dwelling size Surface
Efficiency
Climate conditions Climate conditions
Operation hours
Renivation rate Renivation rate
and renovation and renovation
characteristics characteristics
The calculation of atmospheric pollut- same software version and hypotheses as The emissions from off-road are esti- available. For Euro 6DTemp and Euro
ants emissions and fuel consumption for for the UNFCCC 2015 GHG inventory mated using the OFFREM model (OFF- 6 the emission factor for Euro 6 is kept.
road transport is based on the European preparation. Fuel consumption is detailed Road Emission model), which is used by –– EC emissions are added. f-BC (frac-
COPERT IV approach. The main input data for gasoline, diesel, LPG and CNG. In Bel- the three regions. This makes it possible to tion of BC within PM) reported in
required for COPERT simulations (vehicle gium, biofuels are mixed with gasoline and report emissions for Belgium in a coherent the EMEP/EEA methodology is used
fleet and mobility) is taken from a region- diesel in public fuel tank stations (blends). manner in the context of mandatory inter- for machinery. For vehicles, the f-EC
al transport model, developed on the basis The CO2 emissions from the biogenic part national reporting. (fraction of EC within PM2.5) is cal-
of literature data (TREMOVE projections of fuels (bioethanol or biodiesel) are cal- culated based on COPERT IV (version
and INRETS study3 ), and recalibrated to culated in post-treatment, on the basis of Both exhaust and non-exhaust emis-
11.4) for speeds of 15 km/h.
the actual situation in the Brussels Region the composition of blends, which may vary sions by non-road mobile machinery are
using emission inventories and outputs from year to year. calculated for each sector separately, based
from a detailed traffic model (MUSTI). on statistical data. Emissions are estimat- Fuel related pollutants (SO2, CO2, heavy
For railways, the evolution of liquid
ed based on detailed energy consumptions metals)
The Multimodal strategic displacement fuel (gasoil) consumption is derived from
of non-road mobile machines and vehicle
model for BCR (MUSTI) allows the math- the evolution of freight transport demand –– Biofuels: from 2009 onwards, biofuels
kilometres of non-road vehicles, according
ematical modelling of passengers’ behav- in Belgium as a whole. The starting point are mixed into commercially available
to following methodology:
iour in the BCR during a regular working of the projections (2018) is taken from the fuels. Within the offroad sector, equip-
day. The model is based on surveys and regional energy balance. Pollutants emis- ment on diesel is assumed to use red
traffic surveys that provide a precise view sions are calculated by combining fuel Exhaust emissions diesel, and thus no biofuels are present.
of the mobility situation in the region. consumptions with emission factors from For equipment on petrol the Belgian
MUSTI is calibrated using a variety of IPCC 2006 Guidelines for national emis- Technology related pollutants (NOx, VOC, fuel mix for road transportation is as-
observations. The traffic surveys show, as sion inventories. NMVOC, CH4, CO, N2O, NH3, PM and sumed. The fuel mix in weight percent-
precisely as possible, the displacement per In the case of inland navigation, the benzene) age can be adapted per year, sector, fuel
road section, per vehicle type and per hour evolution of liquid fuel (gasoil) consump- –– Mobile machines: emission factors type and machine vs vehicle.
as well as the chosen itineraries. The mod- tion is derived from the evolution of freight from EMEP/EEA for non-road mo- –– SO2 and Pb emissions depend on the
el calculates the mileage focusing in the transport demand in Belgium as a whole. bile machinery are used (EMEP/EEA sulphur and lead content of the fuels
rush hours (morning 6h-10h and evening The starting point of the projections comes 2017). used. For this purpose, the parame-
15h-19h). from the regional energy balance. Pollut- –– Non-road vehicles: emission factors ters used in the COPERT runs for the
Pollutant emissions calculations with ants emissions are calculated by combining are derived COPERT IV (version 11.4) Belgian emission calculations for road
COPERT have been processed using the fuel consumptions with emission factors calculations for speeds of 15 km/h. transport are applied.
from IPCC 2006 Guidelines for national –– Emission factors for passenger cars on –– CO2 emissions depend on the fuel type.
3
INRETS. Transport routier - Parc, usage et émis-
sions des véhicules en France de 1970 à 2025. s.l. :
emission inventories. CNG are added, based on COPERT IV IPCC emission factors are applied.
Institut National de Recherche sur les Transports et calculations. Euro 4 up to Euro 6 are
leur Sécurité (INRETS), 2004.
Annex 4. Description of selected projects or programmes that promoted practicable steps to facilitate and/or finance the transfer 170
of, or access to, environmentally-sound technologies
environmental burdens compared to –– Before the construction of the bridges, Failures: Technology transferred:
conventional structures. The stone arch the road condition didn’t allow trucks –– No significant failures related to the –– Technical support to provide stone arc
bridge technology has been extremely to cross the river, while now 40 trucks technology have been registered during bridges at large scale in rural commu-
cost efficient. With a limited construc- carry produce from the fields to the the implementation of this project. nities:
tion budget of <1 million euro, the proj- market. –– Factors that impacted efficiency:
ect will build more than 70 bridges and –– Compared to conventional bridges, • Solid, Time-Tested Technology
make a substantial contribution to the stone arches emit 50 -80% less carbon. • The mobilization of local contri- • 80% Cost Reduction
road network in Kigoma region. Masonry requires a fraction of the ce- bution adds value to the success of • Mobilisation of Local Resources
–– Stone arch bridges also avoid some ment required to make concrete and the project but has, however, been • Community Ownership
of the disadvantages of conventional requires no steel at all. The remaining time-consuming and, in some cases, • Reduced carbon footprint
technology, such as steel or concrete materials, like natural stone, are local- led to implementation delays.
• Alignment of public procurement Impact on greenhouse gas emissions/
culverts. These frequently break during ly sourced which considerably reduces sinks (optional)
rough transport over bad roads from transport related emissions. processes to the production and
industrial centres and, because they are –– Involvement of local communities is marketing dynamics of smallholder 50-80% emissions reductions com-
relatively light, they run the risk of be- very strong. The village involvement farmers on the ground is challeng- pared to steel or concrete bridges.
ing washed away during floods. Stone includes the supply of stones, sand, ing. This often-delayed the supply
arch bridges are an environmental water, poles, but the most important of inputs or made credit unavailable
friendly option (locally sourced materi- contribution is that of casual labour. at the critical moments when most
als), which also offers strengthened re- This transforms the appreciation of the needed.
silience for rural communities against bridge from a government intervention –– Not a failure but a challenge: the small-
the impacts of climate change. to a long term community asset. holder approach requires a lot of capac-
–– There is large scale bean production –– Both the design and execution rely on ity building, patience and dealing with
situated around an irrigation scheme design parameters that have been tried inefficiencies. The project has not been
in Kigoma region. This is 12 km away and tested throughout time. Different in the position to directly support the
from the nearest market in Nyakiton- types of arches allow for the adapta- private sector. Medium-scale commer-
tovillage. Before the construction of tion to different terrain types. The de- cial farmers and processors with the
stone arch bridges, the farmers had to sign depends on the slopes of the river capacity to co-fund investments and
travel 25 km to reach the market. Now, banks, the load bearing capacity of the create economies of scale fall outside
their route is reduced by 50% to 12 km subsoil, the width of the river and the the project target group.
to the market village of Nyakitonto. highest floodline. –– Some intervention areas were rather
The arch bridges reduced transporta- –– Thanks to close collaboration with remote, which impacts the monitoring
tion costs from the fields to the market TARURA, the stone arch technique and ability to provide sufficient over-
by half. There was also a spectacular has been promoted on national level. sight and support
increase in traffic on market days, both Several projects managed by TARURA
in terms of motorized transport as in outside of Enabel’s intervention area in
terms of active modes of transportation the Kigoma region have started.
(bicycles).
Annex 4. Description of selected projects or programmes that promoted practicable steps to facilitate and/or finance the transfer 171
of, or access to, environmentally-sound technologies
2. Climate-smart development in Mozambique: power. 1 628 out of a total 2 417 persons
that received training through the PEC
in the project document, while adapting
to a challenging context.
using renewable energy for sustainable are women or teenage girls – 67% –.
The results are measured by the large
–– The Chiaquelane water supply system
intervention was unable to reach the
access to safe and affordable drinking water number of latrines, bathrooms, rubbish initially estimated 8 000 beneficiaries
pits, hand-washing facilities and drying due to budget restrictions and project
in Gaza Province tables constructed through the PEC, in design as explained above in section
which women and girls were fully in- 7.3.2. Nonetheless, the project execu-
volved. tive design was reviewed to allow the
project to be built in 3 phases, thereby
Failures: allowing expansion of the system (by
Recipient Country an area with brackish water sources
and/or designated resettlement areas –– No significant failures have been reg- Enabel or other agencies) when funds
Mozambique
for climate migrants.This has been istered during the implementation of become available. This was an effec-
Sector this project. However, it was expected tive mitigation approach to allow part
achieved through the construction of
Energy water supply infrastructure which was that 33% of water users would pay us- of the population to benefit from clean
Total Funding been accompanied by a comprehensive ing digital money transfer systems. But access to water.
Total budget (€) 1 087 706 euros programme of community education this did not so far happen because of a
Government of Flanders (€) : 1 000 000 lack of enabling conditions in the target Technology transferred:
which included rational water use and
Bilateral project water gaza management, sanitation, hygiene and villages where there are no agents of –– AKVO app/SINASS
and study fund (€): 87 706 + pm the money transfer systems operators. –– Database updated in real-time
climate resilience.
Years in operation –– By removing the majority of the salt –– There was an 8-month overrun in proj- –– 100% solar powered desalination
30 months (2019-2021) from the water in the boreholes, the ect execution, mostly because of the –– New ‘smart’ pumps
desalinators have a positive impact on impact of COVID-19 on supply chains
Description Impact on greenhouse gas emissions/
long-term community health. Water for water infrastructure equipment im-
Contributing to climate resilient social ported from France that caused major sinks (optional)
quality is now well within the World
and economic development of vulnerable Health Organisation recommended delays in arrival of the materials in Mo- More information: MOZ19001 Climate
populations in Gaza Province by improve limits for drinking water. zambique. It should be noted that an Smart Development in Mozambique -proj-
sustainable access to safe and affordable –– The project has significantly reduced overrun of 6 months was included in ect Flanders 20190415.doc - Google Drive
drinking water through a systemic ap- the time that women and girls spend the implementation plan in the Project
proach, encompassing renewable energy, collecting and transporting water to Proposal, anticipating possible delays
healthy living, empowerment of communi- their homes, giving them more time to with works, tenders etc. Despite the de-
ties and local economic stakeholders. rest, study, or carry out their numerous lays that occurred as a result of the un-
daily tasks. foreseen circumstances, the flexibility
Indicate factors which led to project’s
–– The project has been successful in in- of the donor, Flanders government, in
success
creasing gender equality and empow- granting a no cost extension mitigated
–– The main success of the project is its major impacts to the intervention. Thus,
ering women and girls. Women hold
impact on improving access to safe the intervention successfully managed
leadership posts in all 58 CAS, where
drinking water for 6,393 people in to realise the main activities as outlined
they have significant decision-making
Annex 4. Description of selected projects or programmes that promoted practicable steps to facilitate and/or finance the transfer 172
of, or access to, environmentally-sound technologies
3. Strengthening Environmental and Community the use of EcoSan derivatives and bio-
pesticides. EcoSan derivatives and bio-
–– Having benefited from the leadership
training, the Hygiene and Sanitation
Resilience to Climate Change (RREC) pesticides were used as basic inputs
during the vegetative cycle of these
Committees continue to mentor and
support households in activities that
two crops and good results were ob- promote good hygiene and basic sani-
served during harvesting. At the same tation practices in the community.
time, model maize fields were set up in –– The Hygiene and Sanitation Commit-
Recipient Country Indicate factors which led to project’s 5 hills of Gihanga commune to serve as tees have also strengthened households
Burundi
success demonstration fields. in the production of improved stoves.
Sector With regard to the schedule put in –– Germoirs of Neem, Melia and Arte- In total, 1 106 stoves were built over the
place since the beginning of the project, misia were installed in the 5 hills of course of the project, which shows the
hygiene, sanitation, water supply and
preventive health, agriculture, agroforestry we note with satisfaction that all the ac- the intervention zone with the objec- interest of households in this innova-
and market gardening tivities planned within the framework of tive of multiplying these miraculous tion that helps limit This shows the in-
the RREC project have been implemented, plants that have shown good results in terest of households in this innovation
Total Funding
carried out within the deadline and have the fight against crop pests (Neem and that limits wood consumption.
Total budget (€) 241 970
largely impacted the living conditions of Melia) and against malaria (Artemisia).
Wallonia (€) : 181 644
the beneficiary population of Gihanga and –– production of vetiver saplings planted At the communal level :
Years in operation
Mutimbuzi. along the entire along the Kajeke river-
2019 – 2021 (36 months) –– Training was organized in Mutim-
bed to protect the banks from collapse.
buzi for farmers, zonal and communal
Description At the family level : –– in collaboration with the Commune of
agronomists, and agricultural instruc-
Gihanga and Mutimbuzi 10 000 plants
The specific objective of the RREC –– a total of 5 045 people attended an ani- tors from this commune. A total of 40
were produced, including 5 000 bam-
program is to improve the resilience of mation on good hygiene and sanitation participants were trained on the use of
boo plants and 5 000 sisal plants. The
both the environment and the communities practices throughout the duration of the biopesticides (Neem and Melia). This
plants produced were transplanted by
of Gihanga and Mutimbuzi most exposed project training is part of the organization's
the commune on the banks of the Ka-
to the effects of climate change. –– In total 1 254 latrines were built (577 strategy to strengthen the skills of field
jeke River to fight against the damage
Arborloo and 677 Ecosan) out of the actors and especially to provide them
This program is clearly part of a global caused by this river.
800 planned during the project formu- with tools and techniques to better sup-
ambition to adapt family farming to envi-
lation of the project. This overachieve- port the project's beneficiary house-
ronmental constraints accentuated by glob- At the community level :
ment of the target was possible thanks holds.
al warming (including livestock issues, the
to an additional source of source of –– technical training on biopesticides in –– At the communal level, capacity build-
fight against soil erosion and agricultural
funding in the intervention zone. order to build their capacity and to par- ing of communal actors (responsible
water management), and the fight against
–– a total of 1 126 handwashing systems, ticipate in sensitizing other households for sanitation activities) on the use of
deforestation and the management of for-
2 050 dryers, and 1 136 compost bins on the use of biopesticides. EcoSan by-products and biopesticides
est areas (including mangroves and the
were installed in households. –– Hygiene and Sanitation Committees (zonal and communal agronomists, ag-
fight against deforestation by optimizing
–– Watermelon and amaranth fields were were actively involved in the analysis ricultural monitors) has allowed these
or reducing the use of wood for fuel)
installed by the Hygiene and Sanitation and dissemination of the action re- partners to find a framework for ex-
Committees of each hill to demonstrate search data. change and collaboration on environ-
Annex 4. Description of selected projects or programmes that promoted practicable steps to facilitate and/or finance the transfer 173
of, or access to, environmentally-sound technologies
mental and community resilience is- gan timidly at the beginning of 2020, –– improved cookstoves
sues. The workshops facilitated closer quickly gained momentum with the ar-
communication for synergistic work. rival of the agronomist and the recruit-
The field missions with the commune ment of the local agronomist: work to
administration were an effective ap- upgrade the experimental field, soil
proach to cooperation and identifica- analysis of the field, grouping of the
tion of possible needs of the commune different crops according to the type of
and the progress of the project. Direct crop repetition, setting up of nurseries,
requests from households for support etc. of the different crops in relation to
in terms of building materials, biope- the type of crop repetition, setting up of
sticides and/or fruit trees attracted the nurseries for potentially resilient crops
attention of the participants of these with high added value, setting up of
missions. the Kizéo software for household agro-
nomic surveys, taking Ecosan compost
Failures: samples from latrines for submission to
–– No significant failures were record- the laboratory All these activities have
ed during the implementation of this been carried out in succession and have
project. However, the lack of rain for made the project progress at a rapid
the season did not allow us to achieve pace.
our objectives for the development of
action research and the distribution of Technology transferred:
fruit plants.
–– Latrines ecosan
–– After a gradual start in 2019, the proj-
ect faced a challenging health context Ecosan dehydration latrines separate
mid-project with the emergence of faeces from urine and allow the waste to
Covid19 in March 2020. The project be transformed into compost (faeces) or
team had to adapt to this new reality liquid fertilizer (urine) that can be used to
and reframe the interventions while re- fertilize soil or crops. These latrines have
specting the barrier measures. two pits built above the ground, which are
–– This resulted in progressive results covered by a slab. This slab is specially
in the first four semesters. The devel- designed to allow separate collection and
opment of research-action, which be- disposal of faeces and urine underneath.
Annex 4. Description of selected projects or programmes that promoted practicable steps to facilitate and/or finance the transfer 174
of, or access to, environmentally-sound technologies
Annex 5. Acronyms
CH4 Methane
CHP combined heat and power
CII carbon intensity indicator
CIS International Cooperation Commission
CNG Compressed Natural Gaz
ACEP Air-Climate-Energy Plan
CO Carbon monoxide
ACROPOLIS Academic Research Platforms for Policy Support
CO2 Carbon dioxide
Pan-European Research Infrastructure on Short-lived Atmospheric
ACTRIS COBRACE Brussels Air, Climate and Energy control Code
Constituents
CONCERE Concertation between the federal state and the regions about energy
AEA Annual Emission Allowances
COP Conference Of the Parties
AED Administration for Equipment and Travel of the Brussels Capital Region
COPERT EU standard vehicle emissions calculator
ALC automatic LIDAR-ceilometer
CORDEX Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment
Atmospheric Limb Tracker for the Investigation of the Upcoming
ALTIUS CORDIS Community Research and Development Information Service
Stratosphere
AR4/5/6 4th/5th/ 6th Assessment Report of IPCC COREN Coordination Environnement
AWAC Walloon Agency for Air and Climate COSMO-CLM regional climate simulation model
BatEx Exemplary Buildings Project COVID-19 Coronavirus disease
BCR Brussels Capital region CRF Common reporting format
BELSPO BELgian Science POlicy CRIE Regional center for ecology initiation
BE REEL! Belgium Renovates for Energy Efficient Living! CTF Common Tabular Format
BIO Belgian Investment Company for Developing Countries DG Directorate-general
European Biodiversity Partnership supporting excellent research on DGD Directorate General Development Cooperation and Humanitarian Aid
BiodivERsA DNA Designated National Authority
biodiversity with an impact for society and policy
BIRA Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy EC European Commission
BISA Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy ECV Essential Climate Variable
C3S Copernicus Climate Change Service EEA European Economic Area
CAMS Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service EEA European Environment Agency
CCGT Combined-cycle gas power plant EEXI Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index
CCI Climate Change Initiative EIW Energy Info Wallonia
CCIEP Coordination Committee for International Environmental Policy ENOVER Concertation between the federal state and the regions about energy
CDM Clean Development Mechanism EOS Excellence of Science
CELINE Belgian Interregional Cell for the Environment EPB Energy performance of buildings
CER Certified Emission Reduction EPM Energy/Emissions Projection Model
CFC chlorofluorocarbon ERB Earth Radiation Budget
CGIAR Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research ERIC European Research Infrastructure (on carbon?)