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CHAPTER 9.

Evaluating Inventions from Research Institutions


LITA NELSEN, Director, M.I.T. Technology Licensing Office, U.S.A.

ABSTRACT and time to develop them into marketable prod-


The patenting strategies of research institutions are based ucts. Such investments will usually be very risky;
on three key decisions. The first involves whether or not
neither the practicality of the technology nor its
to file a patent. This decision must be based on sound
information about the market, the uniqueness and use- ultimate market acceptance will be known with
fulness of the invention and/or technology, the likelihood any certainty.
of being able to obtain patent protection, factors related It is assumed that the research institution’s
to the inventor, and the potentially paradoxical impact interest is primarily in the social functions of
of patenting on the institution’s social and humanitarian
responsibilities. The second decision involves whether to technology transfer: bringing new medicines
market the invention to established companies or to de- and other useful products into public use, en-
velop a spinout business. The third involves how much to hancing the competitiveness of industry by
charge for a license. Related to all of these decisions is the encouraging the use of new technology, and
key question of whether patenting is the most effective
enhancing economic development and job cre-
route to global access. Negotiating licensing agreements
that are fair to the research institution, the private com- ation. Revenue from royalties is assumed to be
pany, and developing countries can be challenging be- a secondary consideration. (Even in the United
cause research institutions may have difficulty determin- States, the Bayh-Dole Act, which gave U.S. re-
ing fair market values. In addition to outlining a process search institutions the right to own and license
for obtaining these values, this chapter offers some rough
numbers for guidance. In general, the author concludes out inventions from government-funded re-
that it is far better to conclude a deal than to wait for search, was enacted in the cause of economic
the best agreement while fighting interminably for perfect development—not as a mechanism for fund-
financial terms. ing the institutions. Twenty-five years later, the
revenue produced, though useful to the institu-
tions, makes up on average only a small per-
1. Introduction centage of their research budgets.)
This chapter discusses how to evaluate new in-
ventions arising from research at universities and
other research institutions. It considers early, 2. The evaluation process
“university-stage inventions” arising out of ba- Technology transfer offices evaluate early-stage
sic research, rather than development projects. inventions in order to make three decisions:
Most of these university-stage inventions will 1. whether or not to file a patent on the
require substantial investments in both money invention
Nelsen L. 2007. Evaluating Inventions from Research Institutions. In Intellectual Property Management in Health and Ag-
ricultural Innovation: A Handbook of Best Practices (eds. A Krattiger, RT Mahoney, L Nelsen, et al.). MIHR: Oxford, U.K., and
PIPRA: Davis, U.S.A. Available online at www.ipHandbook.org.
© 2007. L Nelsen. Sharing the Art of IP Management: Photocopying and distribution through the Internet for noncommer-
cial purposes is permitted and encouraged.

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2. whether to market the invention to existing addition, there may not be enough time for such
companies or try to do a spinout a study before publication (particularly in aca-
3. what to charge for the invention demic institutions with a policy against delaying
publication for patenting or other commercial
Fortunately, these three decisions do not usu- reasons). The requirement for confidentiality be-
ally have to be made at the same time. And, of fore patenting also limits the depth of any market
course, if the answer to the first question is no, research study.
then the other two questions are moot. Finally, it must be realized that the more in-
novative the invention, the harder it is to get good
2.1 Decision 1: Whether or not to file a patent market feedback. Potential users of new technol-
It is assumed that money for filing patents is avail- ogy cannot easily judge the value of something
able but limited. The decision to file a patent they have never thought about before. Business
should take into account answers to the following histories are replete with gross underestimations
questions: of the potential of innovative products (for exam-
1. Is this invention likely to get awarded a pat- ple, photocopy machines and home computers).
ent with broad enough claims to protect a Innovative inventions from basic research in uni-
product or a product line—not just a mi- versities should expect to suffer similar challenges.
nor variation of an existing technology? So what is a technology licensing office to do?
2. If patented, will this invention likely attract a Below are some questions to consider. They
licensee or investment for commercialization will be answered, for the most part, through dis-
that will produce enough of a return to the cussions with the inventors, some library work
institution to justify the patenting expense? perhaps, some discussions with potential users
3. Is patenting the right route to maximize so- or investors maybe, and the experience and judg-
cial access to the technology? ment of the technology transfer staff.

The answer to the first question on patent- 2.1.1 The market


ability is fairly easy to determine with relative It will be important to try to answer these ques-
(though not absolute) certainty. If time allows, a tions about what the market for the invention
search of the literature that includes past and pub- might be:
lished pending patents will reveal prior art. When • What need does this invention satisfy? Is
possible, this search is best done by a professional this a major, well-recognized need or a mi-
search librarian working side-by-side with one nor one?
of the inventors. If potentially important prior • How is this need being met now? Or is it
art is found, a patent agent may be called in to satisfied at all?
evaluate its significance and the likely claims to • What size is the market? Huge, large, small,
be achieved by patent filing. The prior art search miniscule? (As will be discussed later un-
may also turn up dominating patents that may der pricing, more precision here is not usu-
have to be taken into account. ally needed by the patent holder, although
The second question—will the technology much more precision will be needed by the
attract investment for commercialization if it is licensee or investor.)
patented—is far more difficult than the first to • Is the market already established, or will it
answer with any certainty. Market research stud- need developing?
ies take both time and labor. If the technology • Is this a growing field or a dying one?
transfer office receives many invention disclosures
(at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology 2.1.2 The technology
[M.I.T.] we receive about 450 disclosures per The institution will need answers to these ques-
year), there will not be enough resources to per- tions about the new and existing technology and
form a market research study on every one. In how to develop the invention:

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• How would this technology change how probably choose to stay at the research institu-
the market presently addresses the need? tion, although they may consult or work part
• Is the new technology not only different time for the company developing the invention.
from what is already available, but better? On the other hand, if the inventor has no
If better, what are the major benefits it interest in seeing the technology developed and
offers? will not help to market the patent, these tasks can
• How certain is it that the technology will be hopeless.
work? Can this be demonstrated to a po- The following questions should be considered
tential licensee or investor? to decide how effective the inventor might be in
• How long and how much money will it finding a licensee or investor for the technology.
take to develop the invention into a com- As we shall see, not all of the findings should be
mercial product? documented!
• Is the invention in the inventor’s major field
of research? If not, is he or she at all familiar
2.1.3 Likely degree of patent protection with the market’s needs for the invention?
Answering the following questions will help deci- • Does the inventor have business connec-
sion makers determine whether obtaining a pat- tions in the field of the invention?
ent is worth the expense: • Is the inventor famous? (It’s a lot easier to
• Did the prior art search (or what is known market a patent with a Nobel Laureate’s
about the state of the science) indicate that name!)
broad claims are likely? • Will the inventor be cooperative in meet-
• Is the invention at such an early stage in ing with potential licensees or investors to
product development that the patent will share his or her vision of the invention’s po-
expire before products reach the market? tential and the means of developing it?
(Sadly, many have seen their patents expire • Does the inventor have realistic expecta-
just as the market began rapid growth.) tions about the magnitude and uncertainty
• Is the field moving so quickly that patents of the development task and the potential
are irrelevant? By the time the patent is- financial returns?
sues, will the invention be obsolete? (This is • Can relationships with investors or compa-
not uncommon for software patents in the nies proceed reasonably or is the inventor
United States.) too naïve or overly paranoid?
• Can practice under the patent be detect-
ed, thus allowing for patent enforcement 2.1.5 Social responsibility
against infringers? (It may be impractical In terms of public policy, patents are two-edged
to enforce the patent if the manufacturing swords. They can protect investments very effec-
method is simple and requires no special tively. Moreover, the licensing of university pat-
materials, and the invention is not evident ents has been shown to stimulate much earlier
in the final product.) investment than the placement of inventions in
the public domain. They can also bring much-
2.1.4 The inventor needed revenue to research institutions (although
Inventor participation in the development of the revenue potential of university-stage inven-
university-stage technology is usually critical. tions has been much exaggerated). On the other
The inventor is most familiar with the technol- hand, patents can limit investment in new tech-
ogy and is most likely to have a vision for its use. nologies when the patent holder (or exclusive
Some inventors (particularly students or research licensee) does not invest in all of the fields that
associates) may wish to leave the research institu- can use the patented technology. Patents can also
tion and join (or help form) a company. Most sometimes be used to maintain high prices on
professors or senior researchers, however, will necessary products by excluding competition.

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As a side note, patents are particularly para- manufacture and distribution in the public
doxical in the development and distribution of sector of developing countries?
drugs and vaccines for diseases in developing • If the drug or vaccine is expected to be used
countries.1 Indeed, if effective drugs and vac- only in developing countries, with little
cines for all diseases in developing countries ex- or no market in developed countries, will
isted and could be manufactured at low cost, a market aggregation through patenting and
social philanthropist might wish that no patents limited licenses create a sufficiently profit-
existed, since in theory the absence of patents able market that will encourage develop-
would allow competition, leading to lower prices ment and clinical testing?
and wider availability. But in the absence of effec- • Should the patent holder carve out free use
tive drugs and vaccines, patents may be necessary of a patented research tool for nonprofit re-
to ensure profits for pharmaceutical companies, search institutions?
thus encouraging commercial investment in the
research, development, and clinical testing of 2.1.6 Local considerations
new drugs and vaccines. This paradox puts a spe- The decision to patent depends, to some extent,
cial burden on technology transfer professionals. on the institution and its geographic location.
When licensing health- and agriculture-related For example:
patents from nonprofit research institutions, • In under-developed regions (of both de-
technology transfer professionals must try to pat- veloped and developing countries), tech-
ent strategically to protect profits in developed nologies well-suited to local industry and
countries and encourage commercial research and the technology skills of the region, espe-
development. At the same time, they must use cially, may be promoted to create jobs and
mechanisms to assure that the poor can access the strengthen the local economy.
final products. • Public institutions, more than private in-
When deciding whether patenting a new in- stitutions, may emphasize technologies
vention is in the public interest, the following is- that will enhance local economic develop-
sues, among many others, should be considered: ment—particularly if technology transfer
• Is this technology self-evidently useful is one of the metrics that legislators use
without substantial further investment in to decide how generously to fund a given
development? Will it be widely used even institution.
if it is not patented but put in the public • Medical institutions may decide to patent a
domain? product with a relatively small market, be-
• If the answer to the previous questions cause of the potential benefit to patients.
is yes, can the patent-holding institution
nonetheless devise a nonexclusive licens- In all, this set of challenges is formidable.
ing strategy that allows revenue to be gen- For any given invention, most of the answers
erated without impeding the use of the will be guesses at best; still, these should be edu-
technology? cated guesses, and the judgment of the technol-
• If the technology requires substantial high- ogy licensing office may be all that is available.
risk investment, and therefore patent- Both the technology licensing office and, even
ing and exclusive licensing is warranted, more importantly, the senior administration of
should patents be foregone in developing the institution must realize that a decision to
countries to encourage generic competi- file a patent is a decision to take a risk. Patents
tion? (This approach is reasonable, under are expensive, and patent budgets are limited.
some circumstances, for health and agri- Nonetheless, decision makers must realize that
cultural patents.) although it is easier to say no than yes, the sin
• Can the patent holder require sublicensing of omission—not filing a patent on a technology
of other mechanisms to promote low-cost that later becomes important—may be worse

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than the sin of commission, the filing of a pat- The advantages and disadvantages of licens-
ent that is never licensed. Decision makers should ing to a spinout are almost the reverse of those
consider that if the requirements for patenting are for licensing to an existing company. At the be-
too stringent, then only a few of the inventions ginning, at least, the spinout will be dedicated
submitted to the technology licensing office will to developing the invention as its first priority. It
be accepted for patenting. This will be discourag- will also usually be working very closely with one
ing to researchers and will result in fewer inven- or more of the inventors; moreover, the research
tions reported in subsequent years. institution itself knows the people involved. The
financial arrangements of the license may include
2.2 Decision # 2: Whether to market the both shares of stock and royalties, giving some-
invention to existing companies or license what more assurance that the institution will get
to a spinout at least some return from its license. And, if the
Licensing to an existing company has many ad- company’s strategy does diverge from the origi-
vantages over licensing to a spinout (a new com- nal technology (or the technology doesn’t work),
pany specifically formed to develop the licensed although there will not be any royalties on the
technology). An existing company already has its patent, the equity shares may become liquid and
infrastructure in place, including management. reward the research institution for its role in start-
The company usually has sufficient funds to de- ing the company.
velop the invention, and its financial health often Spinout companies represent a substantial
can be readily assessed. The company also usually risk of conflict of interest, which can be on the
has distribution channels, and its brand name and part of the inventor/researcher or on the part of
market access will make final distribution of the the institution itself. Frequently, both the inven-
product easier and more effective. From the re- tors and the institution will own stock in the
search institution’s point of view, the license agree- company. This can lead to an unhealthy interest
ment is much easier than spinout agreements, and in the company’s fortunes—the parties involved
potential conflicts of interest are far less likely. may encourage the institution to make conces-
This is not to say that licensing to an existing sions on future IP, to sequester data from publica-
company has no difficulties and disadvantages. tion, or to misuse institutional resources or staff
For one, it is difficult to get the attention of an time. The situation is exacerbated if the institu-
existing company (particularly a large one) with tion also invests its own funds in the company.
new but unproven inventions. Existing compa- Thus, research institutions need well-crafted and
nies have already set their research agenda and well-enforced conflict of interest policies if they
priorities, and a new technology needing devel- plan to engage in spinning out companies around
opment could cause disruption. It is also difficult their technologies.
to find within a large company a “champion” who Spinout companies are also fragile. They
will enthusiastically support a new technology must find management talent and raise invest-
that is not his or her own when it runs into the ment money. They are highly dependent on the
inevitable problems in development. talent of the management team, and a bad hire
The single biggest disadvantage of licens- can set the company back for a year or more. A
ing to an existing company is the risk that the spinout company often has difficulty in market-
company will lose interest in the technology, or, ing and developing distribution channels. In hard
perhaps worse in the case of an exclusive license, economic times, further investment may be very
that it will retain some interest in the invention difficult to attract, and the research institution’s
but that the project will be given less priority and equity shares may become valueless due to a
inadequate resources. When things do go wrong, down round of investment or a low-price sale to
it is often difficult for large companies to identify an acquiring company, made in desperation. And,
the right person to provide information or to ne- because of the complexity of equity investments,
gotiate a change in the license agreement. the technology transfer agreement is likely to be

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considerably more difficult to negotiate than a interested in contributing to the spinout, it is un-
conventional license. likely to be successful. On the other hand, if the
The advantages and disadvantages of conven- inventor wants to form a spinout and there are
tional licenses and spinouts will be different for no clear reasons why this is impractical, then it is
different inventions. A spinout may be preferred not advisable for the technology transfer office to
when the following criteria are met: “take the baby from its parent” and give the job
• The invention is a platform technology that to an existing company. Such an act would likely
may lead to not just one but many products. cause political problems in the research institu-
It is difficult to justify the risk of a spinout tion and could also discourage future inventors
when only a single product is envisioned. from reporting their inventions.
Also, a spinout company is more likely to
try to exploit the full range of potential ap- 2.3 Decision #3: What to charge
plications of the technology, while an es- for the invention
tablished company will more likely focus Although research institutions may engage in
on a single addition to its existing product technology transfer primarily for social benefit,
line. most nonetheless expect to reap a reasonable fi-
• There is no existing industry making similar nancial return from those licenses. The company
products. It is difficult for a new company expects to make a profit from the product with the
to compete in an established market unless proviso that concessionary terms may be appro-
the technology is overwhelmingly superior. priate for critical public goods where the markets
• The market is large enough to justify the risk. are small, or the ability to pay is very limited.
This is particularly true for technology requir- Under the usual (profit sector) conditions,
ing substantial investment in development. how does a technology transfer office decide
Since the failure rate of spinouts is often what is a reasonable return from licensing a
high, investors expect a very large return on particular invention? Unfortunately, all too
their investments from the winners. A small many technology licensing offices spend far too
market, therefore, will not be sufficient. much time trying to evaluate the total value of
• Strong intellectual property (IP) protection embryonic inventions in some supposedly sci-
exists in the country in which the spinout entific manner. Calculators are kept running
exists and/or in the major markets to which on Net Present Value calculations and other
it intends to export. Patents are the prima- more abstruse formulae, when the major inputs
ry protection for small companies against to the formulae—cost of developing the tech-
larger companies that enter a market after nology, cost of manufacture, the market adop-
a technology is proven successful. Without tion cycle, and the ultimate market size—are
them, the market strength of a large compa- all unknown and cannot even be reasonably
ny that is the second to enter the market can estimated. Thus, the calculations often fulfill
overpower the innovating small company. the “garbage in/garbage out” axiom, producing
• At least one credible inventor will join the largely meaningless results.
company as founder, consultant, and/or Fortunately, technology transfer offices are
employee (the most important criterion). almost never asked (or able) to sell a technology
Without this human technology transfer, outright for a single lump sum. (Few companies
it will be almost impossible to raise invest- or investors would be willing to pay any substan-
ment money and much more difficult to tial sum up front for unproven technologies even
develop the technology. if the research institution was willing to make the
offer.) Thus, the full worth of an invention need
In reality, the choice between a convention- not be calculated at the time the technology is
al license and a spinout often is made for the transferred. License agreements and spinout agree-
technology transfer office. If the inventor is not ments share the risk of this uncertainty between

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CHAPTER 9.1

the research institution and the company through status or acquisition by a larger company). In ad-
a combination of payments, some at the begin- dition, if the company has to raise more money
ning of the license and others later, depending on later from investors and its progress-to-date has
future sales or the company’s future success. not been good (or the economic climate for in-
In a conventional license to a company, the vestment is bad), the company may have to ac-
financial components of the license may include cept funding in a “down round investment” that
(among possible other terms, such as sublicens- makes the initial stock almost worthless.
ing fees): If both running royalties and stock are taken,
• a license issue fee: a negotiated amount pay- then each is usually lower than if the deal were
able at the time the license is executed “pure cash” or “pure equity.” In addition, license
• license maintenance fees: annual fees, usu- fees are usually lower than from a large compa-
ally creditable against royalties in any year ny, since a new company will typically be cash
where royalties are payable (Thus, the li- poor and will need to use its cash to develop the
cense maintenance fees function as “mini- technology.
mum royalties” in years when the product The main point for both conventional licens-
is sold.) es and spinouts is that if the technology is suc-
• patent cost reimbursement: almost always cessful the major financial returns will be from li-
required by universities cense fees and/or equity. With both conventional
• milestone fees: usually applied only when licenses and spinouts, the returns are linear. That
the technology is very risky and requires is, once a running royalty rate is set (for example,
significant investment (Meeting a mile- 4% of net sales), then the formula will make “ap-
stone—such as approval for clinical testing propriate returns” regardless of whether the sales
or regulatory approval for sale—validates of the final product are US$100,000 per year or
the technology, allowing the research in- US$100 million per year:
stitution to expect more rewards after the • If the sales are only US$100,000 per year,
relatively low initial license fees.) then the company pays the research institu-
• running royalties: usually a percentage of tion only US$4,000 per year; a small but
sales (Major value is expected here, but fair number, since the sales have not been
it is contingent on the technology’s suc- high.
cess and on the market’s acceptance of the • If the sales are US$100 million per year,
product.) then the research institution receives US$4
million per year, reflecting the large success
In a license to a spinout company2, the finan- of the product.
cial components may include:
• a license issue fee Similarly, if the research institution takes
• license maintenance fees 100,000 shares of founders stock from a total of
• patent cost reimbursement one million shares of founders stock issued, rep-
• milestone fees resenting 10% of the company, in exchange for
• running royalties the technology (the total number of shares, one
• shares of stock (in other words, equity) in million in this case, is totally arbitrary: the per-
the company centage of the total is what counts), then:
• If the share price at liquidity is US$50 per
Shares of stock may or may not be the ma- share (reflecting a successful company), then
jor source of return for the research institution. the university will receive US$5 million.
Equity in the company is certainly the riskiest • If the share price is low, reflecting a “despera-
component for the institution. In harsh economic tion acquisition” price of only US$0.50 per
climates, the company may have a difficult time share, then the research institution will get
reaching liquidity (that is, public stock trading only US$5,000. (This is not unheard of.)

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It is worth reiterating that the research insti- • how much and how long it will take to de-
tution does not need to know the total value of velop it
the technology at the time of licensing/spinning • the cost of development in the country in
out, because the linearity of running royalties which the company resides
and/or equity determines the amount the insti- • the state of the economy—including the
tution will receive. The acquiring company (or state of the stock market and the investment
spinout), however, must have a much better es- climate in both the country of origin and, if
timate of the final value of the technology and of different, the country of the licensee
the cost of developing it, since the spinout must • the negotiating power of the research insti-
balance the cost and risk of developing the prod- tution relative to the company
uct within the market against expected sales and • the negotiating skill of the research
profit returns. Fortunately, industrial concerns institution
and financial investors have better resources for
making these estimates. The amount of equity the university gets will
depend on all of the above variables, as well as on
the extent to which the research institution “in-
3. So, what are the numbers? cubated” the technology and spinout company
This section is a risky one to both write and read. before the technology left the institution. For
People often ask for numbers, but the problem is example, the amount (or percent) of equity will
that there are no typical numbers, because there are be lower if the university merely licenses the aca-
no typical deals; each one is unique. The section demic-stage invention to a newly incorporated
does, however, attempt to provide some guidance company and higher if the university invests in
on numbers. Those presented here are all based on showing proof of practical concept or in develop-
personal experience with U.S. and U.K. institu- ing a prototype of the final product. The level of
tions and all depend on the following: equity will be highest if the university assists in
• the importance of the technology to the fi- forming the company itself, devising and writing
nal product the business plan, hiring the management team,
• the type of product helping the company raise money, and even al-
• the uniqueness of the technology and the lowing the company to be housed in the labora-
final product tories of the research institution for the compa-
• the typical profitability of that type of prod- ny’s first year or two of life.
uct and/or the industrial sector With those caveats, the typical ranges are
• whether the IP is the key IP for the com- given in Box 1 for license fees and royalties for a
pany or only a small piece of its holdings conventional license, based on U.S. experience,
• the strength and breadth of the IP with the further caveat that some deals fall out-
• whether the IP includes: side of these ranges.
-
only present patent rights
-
additional know-how for which the
research institution can command re- 4. Conclusion
turn (most know-how is in the public The task of evaluating and pricing early-stage
domain) technology is more art than science. (This is
-
a “pipeline” to future technology and true for negotiation too.) Success requires a
patents from the research institution (a general knowledge of product development,
dangerous precedent if the pipeline is manufacture, and markets, plus knowledge of
too wide) the pricing for comparable technologies (when
• whether the company will have to license the information is available), plus experience.
blocking patents from third parties Technology transfer offices primarily learn
• the state of development of the technology from their own experiences and by studying the

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CHAPTER 9.1

experiences of similar institutions. If the offices Lita Nelsen, Director, M.I.T. Technology Licensing Office,
can attract and retain both talented staff and Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Five Cambridge
Center, Kendall Square, Room NE25-230, Cambridge,
commitment from their administration, they
MA, 02142-1493, U.S.A. lita@mit.edu
will get better with time.
No deal will be perfect. Some will fail. It is
important to remember, however, that it is far 1 See also in this Handbook, chapter 1.4 by L Nelsen and
A Krattiger.
better to conclude a deal with a company that
2 See also in this Handbook, chapter 13.1 by A Brown and
will competently develop the product than to
J Soderstrom.
wait for the best deal or to fight interminably for
the best financial terms. Only when the technol-
ogy is developed and brought to market will the
public benefit. And that is ultimately why uni-
versities and their technology licensing offices are
in business. ■

Box 1: M.I.T.’s License Fees and Royalties


(U.S. dollars)

Conventional license (without equity)

• License Issue Fee: $10,000–$200,000


• Annual license fee (minimum royalties): $20,000–$200,000 (often beginning low and increasing
by year until the amount reaches a plateau)
• Milestones (when present): $50,000–$1,000,000 (the latter when Food and Drug Administration
approval for marketing is gained for a major drug)
• Running Royalties: 0.5%–7% (the lower range for process improvements or commodity products;
the higher range for noncommodity products and patents with product claims) This may be still
higher for software and for composition of matter patents on drugs.

Based on U.S. and U.K. experience, the following division of equity is typical for a spinout after it has
raised $1 million in investment. It assumes lower license fees and royalties:

Spinout Company Equity Shares After $1 Million of Investment

Venture investor: . ....................................................................................... 33%


Research institution’s share based on IP alone: .................................. 5%–7%
(If) Research institution does extensive incubation: ......................... 10%–15%
Research institution total: ........................................................................ 15%–22%
Employee stock option pool: . .................................................................. 20%
Founding entrepreneurial team: ............................................................ 25%–32%

If no incubation was provided by the research institution, then the entrepreneurial team’s share may
be 40%–45%.

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