Run Data Analysis

20th November 2022

Preamble
I put together this presentation after a conversation with the GM Coaches
yesterday (19th November 2022) about the current low-pick rates system of
providing 3 GMP to a GM who picks players who fall below the mean average
pick rate.
I’ve decided to make this into a formal presentation as I feel this information
would be of benefit to everyone and would also give some transparency to
people
I feel that this sort of thing is quite important to share from time to time and
deep analysis of our processes are useful to ensure that we can react
accordingly to issues as they occur in an informed manner.
I hope you find this, at the very least, interesting

-Dart
A Brief Note on the Data
For the purposes of this presentation we are using the unabridged run data, no manipulation of the dataset is
done for this presentation unless specified in the slide title.
This data is maintained by Drachy, Loup and very occasionally myself.
• Our first run was on the 24th October 2020
• We have had 825 runs in this time.
• This means that there has been around 1.09 runs per day.
• When working out who the lowest picked players are we do not use the full dataset
• We take a cut at a certain point in time (Currently last 5 months).
• Remove all 100% pick rate players who, in that time, have applied to 5 or fewer runs.
• Remove all players who are currently banned.
• The current mean average for this purpose is 52.87%
• This process has been in place since 19th October 2022.
• The data is assumed to be 100% correct, however I am sure there are slight errors in the 4287 applications
across 859 posted runs. I am comfortable with any slight inaccuracies.
• The actual mean average pick rate is 66.58% for all runs since he creation of the Chrome Company. The
median average is 66.67%.
Average Pick Rate Over Time.
Row Labels Average of picked?
Total <24/10/2020
(blank) 0.00%
100.00% 2020
Oct 88.89%
Nov 67.55%
90.00%
Dec 72.07%
2021
80.00% Jan 71.20%
Feb 62.84%
70.00% Mar 62.87%
Apr 76.71%
May 66.98%
60.00% Jun 74.47%
Jul 72.82%
50.00% Aug 69.80%
Sep 71.84%
Total
Oct 74.05%
40.00%
Linear (Total) Nov 62.09%
Dec 57.04%
30.00% 2022
Jan 68.16%
20.00% Feb 74.12%
Mar 68.91%
Apr 60.43%
10.00% May 59.12%
Jun 55.94%
0.00% Jul 60.09%
Aug 70.00%
(blank)

Jan

Aug

Aug
Feb
Nov

Mar

Apr

May

Sep

Jan

Feb
Nov

Mar

Apr

May

Sep

Nov
Dec

Jun

Jul

Dec

Jun

Jul
Oct

Oct

Oct
Sep 65.50%
Oct 59.57%
Nov 53.47%
<24/10/2020 2020 2021 2022
Grand Total 56.48%
Number of Runs Posted Per Month
Total
70

60

50

40

Total
30 Linear (Total)

20

10

0
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2020 2021 2022
Analysis
• Pick rates remain mostly consistent throughout the entirety of the
Chrome Company’s existence at around 65%.
• I believe that this is an overall healthy pick rate.
• As the Chrome Company has matured the number of runs posted per
month has steadily increased.
• We should ignore November of this year for the purposes of this analysis as
the month is not complete.
• Periodically I hear people remark that there are a low number of runs
being posted due to the time of year, however I do not see any point
there is a repeated dip in runs at the same time in the year.
Over-picked players
vs.
Under-picked players
Over-picked vs. Under-picked players
I am going to be displaying people’s actual pick rates. I appreciate that
this may not sit right with some people, however the raw data used to
create this is accessible to GMs and a person with enough time and
willpower could dig through our paperwork and re-create this anyway.
In no way is this data private or privileged.
If you are mentioned by name beyond this point, or your pick rates are
shown and you find this uncomfortable, I apologise.
 Direct Comparison (top 20 vs. bottom 20, 2022)
(excluding people with less than 10 applications, 2022 data only)

Row Labels Picked Grand Total Avg Row Labels Picked Grand Total Avg
Dartosc 40 40 100.00% drakir 48 75 64.00%
Kim Corporate 22 23 95.65% AztechnologyPR 8 13 61.54%
Poena 28 31 90.32% Regalius 19 31 61.29%
Feathered-Knight 65 73 89.04% T.J. 24 40 60.00%
SCKoNi 84 96 87.50% Larryman555 73 124 58.87%
Malkavianmadman 28 32 87.50% madcat1 17 29 58.62%
Neon 38 44 86.36% LoneWolf6155 28 48 58.33%
ScytheKnight 15 18 83.33% Lyrael 51 90 56.67%
Drachy 68 82 82.93% Spieo 10 19 52.63%
loup126 77 97 79.38% King_of_Gondor12 14 28 50.00%
Akino (Akino) 15 19 78.95% AJ 17 35 48.57%
Mr_Unknown_Man 39 52 75.00% LeDemiurge 7 15 46.67%
Brock 53 71 74.65% notmerciless93 31 68 45.59%
Pandamonium 13 18 72.22% gelatinous³ 5 11 45.45%
Elispb 12 17 70.59% Jigurd 9 25 36.00%
Spock 20 29 68.97% Kasper 27 81 33.33%
KH1LLETCH13 11 16 68.75% Liquet 37 125 29.60%
Teksura 87 130 66.92% Kogeki 32 121 26.45%
Atrum Chalybs 46 69 66.67% CynBlue 4 17 23.53%
Kaiser WAHelm II 20 30 66.67% Samfu 3 13 23.08%
Analysis
• It’s good to be King👑.
• The more you apply, the lower your pick rate (generally speaking).
• If you are an active GM, you get picked more often.
• If you have diverse characters with a broad skillset, you get picked
more often.
• If you have a single, niche or very powerful character, you will be
picked less frequently.
• Be an active, friendly, non-confrontational and co-operative player.
(Don’t be a dick.)
Deep Dive (Feather)
120.00%

100.00%

80.00%

60.00%
Total
Linear (Total)

40.00%

20.00%

0.00%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2021 2022
Deep Dive (Kasper)
70.00%

60.00%

50.00%

40.00%

Total
30.00% Linear (Total)

20.00%

10.00%

0.00%
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Sep Oct Nov
2021 2022
Deep Dive (Kogeki)
45.00%

40.00%

35.00%

30.00%

25.00%

Total
20.00%
Linear (Total)

15.00%

10.00%

5.00%

0.00%
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2022
Deep Dive (Liquet)
60.00%

50.00%

40.00%

30.00%
Total
Linear (Total)

20.00%

10.00%

0.00%
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2021 2022
Deep Dive (Loup)
120.00%

100.00%

80.00%

60.00%
Total
Linear (Total)

40.00%

20.00%

0.00%
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2020 2021 2022
Deep Dive (Neon)
120.00%

100.00%

80.00%

60.00%
Total
Linear (Total)

40.00%

20.00%

0.00%
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Sep Oct
2021 2022
Deep Dive (NotMerciless)
80.00%

70.00%

60.00%

50.00%

40.00%
Total
Linear (Total)
30.00%

20.00%

10.00%

0.00%
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2022
Deep Dive (SCKoNi)
120.00%

100.00%

80.00%

60.00%
Total
Linear (Total)

40.00%

20.00%

0.00%
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2020 2021 2022
Player Distribution by GM (2022)
HumansizedGnome#0301
malkavianmadman#9248
AztechnologyPR#5546
rabidlama704#8492
Poena#8880
Jigurd#1092
George Pumpkin#7188
Mr_Unknown_Man#5387
Larryman555#4960
notmerciless93#3606
Kaiser WAHelm II#6091
Bard#7615
Pandamonium#7180
Atrum Chalybs#2744
Ridleyz#3024
Feathered-Knight#7056
Dartosc#3441
Teksura#6943
madcat1#5319
SCKoNi#4251
Neon#8567
Brock#4278
loup126#2802

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Correlation between Roles (2022)
120.00%

100.00%

80.00%

GM
Player
60.00%
Staff
Teams - Non GM
Teams - GM
40.00%

20.00%

0.00%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Run Start Time (UTC) Distribution (2022)
• Periodically I hear complaints that the “US
00 01 Timezone” games are fairly sparse.
02 03 • Since the US (minus Alaska and Hawaii) covers
a timezone range of -5 UTC to -8 UTC that is a
06 07 fairly broad area to cover and is not a helpful
08 09
measure. I have generally taken this as EST,
given most of our players are EST based.
10 11
• This may be partially true, given that the
12 13 latest largest block at 23:00 UTC is 18:00
EST/15:00 PST it would appear that the New
14 15 World Colonies are underserved.
16 17 • Games that exist between 21:00 UTC and
23:00 UTC seem to service no one particular
18 19
group and appear to be an attempt by EU
20 21 based GMs to service US timezone players,
because 21:00 UTC – 23:00 UTC is not “EU
22 23 Timezone games”
 Most Active GMs (2022)
• The issue however appears to be a lack of
loup126#2802 (NA) 68 active NORAM/LATAM GMs.
• EU: 6
SCKoNi#4251 (EU) 51 • NORAM: 3
Brock#4278 (EU) 50 • AUS: 1
• By Games and GMs location
Neon#8567 (EU) 42 • EU: 194 – 59.9%
• NA: 117 – 36.1%
madcat1#5319 (NA) 29
• AUS: 13 – 4.01%
Feathered-Knight#7056 (EU) 21 • This does not take into account the timezones
that GMs actually run games in, however it is
Teksura#6943 (NA) 20 a strong indication that NORAM/LATAM need
more GMs.
Dartosc#3441 (EU) 17
• There are enough NORAM/LATAM players
Bard#7615 (AUS) 13 who could become GMs to help support that
timezone.
Ridleyz#3024 (EU) 13
Deep Dive Analysis
• What this shows is that there is a correlation between being an Active GM, with
multiple characters with a broad set of skills between them.
• It is apparent that pick rates are correlated to being a GM. This shouldn’t be
entirely surprising.
• If a GM picks me for a run and then applies to my run a week later, I am going to be inclined
to return the favour, creating a bit of a cycle.
• There does not seem to be a strong correlation between pick rates and being
Staff, given that most of Staff are also the most active GMs.
• Regardless of any preference towards other GMs, GMs trend towards picking
from a wide array of players, individually showing no strong bias.
• The final graph in this section shows that the more active GMs will take a diverse
distribution of Players and that none of the most active GMs have a strong
favouritism towards any one player.
• This supports the initial Analysis for this section.
Does the GMP Award Work?
• It's too early to tell whether or not granting 3 GMP for those players who fall
below the average is working.
• Currently it looks like it does not have a material effect, speaking to GM Coaches
last night re-enforces this, and the below impact their ability to pick people:
• Have a non-niche character, with a broad set of skills.
• Have more than one character, at different "power-levels"
• Work well with others, be polite, do not be confrontational. (Don't be a dick.)
• Have a working microphone.
• Know your character's rules and dice pools.
• Although it does not appear to have an effect on Pick Rates, we will maintain this
system until January 1st 2023, then we will see if this has changed.
• We would want to see the the majority of players to be around the 40-50% pick-
rate mark.
Q&A
• Can I see the raw data?
• Yes, the link will be provided in Discord.
• Can you send me the line graph that shows my pick-rate over time?
• Yes, PM Dart.
• I have some concerns and questions, where should I go?
• I have created a Thread to discuss this under #SR-General
• You have shown my pick-rate, can you remove it please?
• No, this is not privileged data and anyone can work this out. Sorry if this causes some
discomfort, but I don’t think it should do so.
• I have a concern that I am being “shadow banned”, who do I speak to?
• Dart, Ridleyz or a Moderator, whomever you are most comfortable with.