In Cri Pier ee et Cn ae eee Beer a Pen ee of toss won or lost and which team decides to bat or field first! This is ett te ee a eee Le Caen me) e the chances of one event occurring with some relationship to other. Topic Notes Basic Concepts and Conditional Probability @ Bayes' Theorem, Random Variables and its Probability DistributionBASIC CONCEPTS AND CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY! | Topic1] SOME ELEMENTARY TERMS AND CONCEPTS Probability means study of possibilty or chances of occurrence of an event. It conveys the sence that ie Is not certain whether the event will take place. However, in the theory of probability, we assign a ‘numerical value to the degree of uncertainty In this chapter, we are going to study about the occurrence of on event under a certain condition of another event elready occured. Such probablity is also known os conditional probability. Further, conditional probability will help in understanding the concepts of Independent events, muttipication rule of probability ‘and Bayes’ theorem. We shall also discuss random variable and its probability distribution, and mean, In this section, we shall state some basic terms of probability along with ther definition. Experiment Ie Ie an operation which produces some well-defined ‘outcomes (or results). Random Experiment fon experimentis repeated under identical conditions and the outcomes of that experiment are not the fame every time but each outcome Is one of the feveral possible outcomes, then els clled a random experiment Ft important ‘< Arondom experiment sotises two conditiens: (thas more than ene possible outcome. {@)itis rot possible ro precct the autceme in advance. Mlustration: (1) If a coin is tossed, we get two outcomes, namely head and tail ond it is riot possible to prediet in advance whether head or ‘ail will appear. (2) If a 6-foced de Is thrown, we get six outcomes, nomely 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 and itis not possible to predict in advance what number will appear. Sample Space of a Random Experiment The set of all possible outcomes of a random ‘experiment is called sample space of that random experiment. leis denoted by & Mlustration: (1) Throw of a die: $= (1, 2, 3, 4,5, 6} (2) Toss of o esi: $={H,T} (8) Toss of two coins: = (HH, HT,TH.TT} Event Every subset ofa somple spaceis an event. GF important Events ore generally subsets of sample space ond are denoted by A,B, Cete. Mlustration: In tossing o coin, {H} and {T} are events Impossible (or null) Event and Sure Event Since mull etl the eubeet of every eet, itis @ subset ‘ofthe somple space also and hence itis an event. This event is called the null event (ar Impossible event goin, since every sets 0 subset of itself so sample space Ie also an event. This event Is called the sure event. Mlustration: (1) The appearance of number 8 in throwing a 6-faced de is an impossible event. (2) The cppearance of a notural number less thon 7 in throwing a €-faced die isa sue event. Equally Likely Events Two outcomes are sald to be equalytkely fone of them cannot be expected to eccur in preference to the other. Or we can soy that Ifthe probobilty of ‘occurrence of one event is ome os that ofthe other fevert then the two events ore sid to be equally tkely event. Illustrations ia tossing ofa coin the appearance of head ond tail ae equally Ukely events. Exhaustive Events Events, Ey Ey. — Ey ore said to be exhaustive events if Ey U E2 UV Ey UV Eg S Mlustration: Event E; as getting on odd number ‘ond E308 geting an even nurtber on tossing ale are txhaustive events Ey ={2,3, 5} and E = (2, 4, 6}.here Fy UE=S. Mutually Exclusive Events Two everts A and B ore called mutually exclusive if Anbas Wuustration: Let § = {1, 2, 3 4, 5, 6} and events ‘A.and 8 be two events such that A= {1, 3, 5} and B= 124.6} Since Am B= events A and 8 ore mutually exclusive.[ToPic2| PROBABILITY Let be a finite samale space ofa random experiment. consisting of n cutcomes. Also let these outcomes be all equclly tkly. If m of these are fovorable to the occurrence of an event A, then we define probability ofas Mlustration: (1) Let $ be the somple space of ‘throwing a -foced dle. Then, S= {1, 2,3, 4, §, 6}. Let Abe the event that the number appearing on the face lof the die isa prime number. Then, A= {2, 3,5}. So, ns) = 6 ond n(A) = 3. 3 ot POs) 2, ort (2) Lets be the sample space of tossing a cain two ‘mes. Then, = (HH, HT,TH.T7} Let A be the event ‘geting atleast one head”. Then, As (HLH TH. So, nS) = 4 ond ni) = 3. : 3 Palas &t important The above defiition of probabilty is not applicable iF the tomple space isan infinite set or its members are not eaualy tel = The probability of an event A lies between O and 1, ie, Os Pils, The probsbitty of eure event 1: and ofthe impossible ~ rey = PU) + Pret A)=1 ~The odds in fovour of occurrence of an event A are defined by min=mie, PCA): P(A); and odds against oF an ‘event A are defined by =m, Le, PLA):POAL A\ caution S Pinot 4) ‘complement of PIA) clso written os PIA): and is reod os Some Important Details of Playing Cards ‘Accomplete set of plauing cards Is called a deck or pack. consists ofa total of 52 cards. These cards ore equally distributed in four suits ~ Spades ( ), Hearts (¢), Clubs (a) and Diamonds (8. Each sult has 13 cards: an ace, a king, a queen, ajack ‘ond nine cords numbered 2 to 10, OF the 52 cards of a pack, there ae (1) 26 red cards = 13 heart cords + 13 diamond cards: and 26 black cords ~ 13 spade cards + 13 club corde (2) 12 face cords ~4 kings, 4 queens and 4 jacks. [Topic3| ADDITION THEOREM ON PROBABILITY Addition Theorem for Two Events Addition theorem on probability states that i A end B core any two events associated with a random experiment, then the probabilty of occurrence of event ’A or B's given os: P(A oF &) = PIA) + PB) ~ PA and B) In other words, P(AUB) = PUA) + PIB) - PAB) Corollary: If A and B are two mutually exclusive events, then P(A UB) = P(A) + PQ). Example 4.1: If A and B are two events such that Pays 2 and P(A B) = 2, find P (not Aond not 8). INcerr] ‘Ans. We know that Pnot A and not B) = P(A’ B) = P(A UB) = 1-PAUB) By addition theorem, we have = P(A) + PIB)- PAN) ‘Using the value of P(A WB) in (, we have 5.3 Plnot A and not B) = 1—& = 5 Addition Theorem for Three Events Let EF and G be any three events associated with a random experiment. Then,P(E or F or G) = P(E) + P(F) + P(G) - P(E and F) = P(F and G) ~ P(G and E) + P(E and F end G) In other words, PEL FUG) = PQQ + PF) + PIG) - PEMA) - PEG) =PGND +PENFAG) Corollary: f€, Fond G ore three mutually exclusive events, then P(E U FUG) = P(E) + PYF) + POG). Set Notations for Different Types of Events Bbutrot A wos Neither A nor B woe All three of A B,C AnBnc Exactly one of A,B @nBUANE Exactly two of ABC) AM BNQUANB' AD UAnBac) Event ‘Set Notation important nee w ‘tet A ond be any two evr eseceted witha random Coerinert Then ‘Aond 8 | Ane | aprang)=Fa)-Pane nae I ca — Abut not 8 I ARE 4) PW 8) = PIA BY] = 1~ PAB) | Topic 4 | CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY Let A and 8 be two events associated with the same semple space $ of the randam experiment. Then, the probabilty of occurrence of A under the condition thot B has clreody occurred and P(B) + 0 Is called conditional probability, to be denoted by P(A | 8) Similarly, P(B | A) ie defined. Meaning of P(A|B) Number of outcomes of 8 which are favourable to A PAS Number of outcomes favourable to B = ANB) x6) _ Man syinis) (8/715) (on diveing both the ‘numerator and denominator by ni} _ Pane) Pe) Properties of Conditional Probability Let A and 8 be any two orbitrary events associated with the sare sample space of the random experiment. Property 1 PISA) = PALA) = Property 2 FACBthen ANB eA PEOA) PA, = PRIA Bray pea)“ Property 3 The conditional probability of net happening of 8 ‘when A has already occurred Is denoted by PIB’ | A) ‘ond is given by P(B'|A) = 1 -P(@ | A). Property 4 IFA and B are any two events associated with the ‘some sample space S of the random experiment ond Fis an event of S such thot PIF)» 0, then, PIAL 8) | F]= PIAA) + PBA) ~ PUAN) IF] Inparticular, iF A and 8 are disjoint events, then PUA UB) F]= PALF) + PB 1F) Example 1.2: A black and a red dice are rolled. (A) Find the conditional probability of obtaining ‘a sum greater than 9, given that the black die resulted in a 5. (© Find the conditional probability of obtaining the ‘sum 8, given that the red die resulted in @ number less than 4. INCERT] ‘Ans. When two dice ore rolled, Total number of outcomes, (6) = 36 (A) Let A be the event of getting a sum greater than 9 and 8 be the event of getting @ 5 on the black die. Then, A= {(4,6),(5,5).(5,6) (6.4), (6,5) (6. 6)) B16, 21.6,2).(5.3).(5,4), (6.5). 6.6) = AnB=16,5)(5,6)Nowy, required probability Ans) 1/382 Pate PB) 1/6 3 @ Let A be the event of getting a sum of 8 ond & be the event of geting orumber less than 4 onthe red la. The A={(2,6).3, 5), (4,4), 6,3), 6, 2b B= {(1, 1), (1,2), (2, 3), (2, 1). (2, 2). (2,3), (3). GB, 2. G3) (4, 1, (4, 2), 4, 3), 2), 6.2.(5, 3), 6 1), 6, 2), (6, 3} = ANB={6.2,6, 9) 2 Pit)» Spe) = 8 ad PA) 36 P(E) 3672) at 36718 Now, rested probably = P|) = ANB) Pe) 118 2 7a PANE) = Example 1.3: An instructor has @ question bank consisting of 300 easy True/False questions, 200 difficult True / Falee questione, 500 easy multiple choice questions and 400 difficult multiple choice questions. If a question is selected at random from the question bank, what is the probability tha willbe an easy question given that it is a multiple choice question? INCERT] ‘Ans. Hore, total questions = 300 + 200 + §00 + 409 = 1400 Let A be the event that selected question is on easy question. Then, 300+500 _ 4 P= 740077 Let B be the event that eelected question is @ rmuttiple choice question. Then, 500+400 9 Poe) = 200400 8 ©) 4004 Now A © B is the event so that the selected question is an easy mutiple choice question. Then, PANE) = ‘mol 8. 1400 "14 2. Required prebobliy = Pa |) Pane) 5/14 _5 Pe) afte 3 Example 4.4: Consider the experiment of ‘throwing a die. If a multiple of 3 comes up, throw the die again and if any other number comes, toss, «2 coin. Find the conditional probability of the event. ‘the coin shows a toil given that ‘at least one die shows a3! INCERT] Ans. Here, S = {G, 1)... @.3.G. 4.8.5). 3.6) (6.1), 21.(6, 3) (6, 4) (6,5), (6,6), (1.40, (2,7), 2.1,2.7. 4H) 4,D.6.4).6. TE Let A be the event of getting a tal on the coin. Then, (1, 1), (2. 1) (4.1), (5, DE Pa= tat = ud Let B be the event that at least one die chows 23. Then, B=1B.0.8.2.8.9.8.4.6.9.8,6.(6.3 7 > ro 3% Now AnB=@. So, P(ANB)=0 «Required probability = P(A 8) Pans) _0 PE) 7/20 Example 1.5: in o hostel, 60% ofthe students read Hind newspaper, 40% read English newspaper and 20% read both Hind! and English newspapers. A student i selected at random. (A) Find the probability that she reads neither Hind nor English newspapers. (®) If she reads Hindi newspaper, find the probability thet she reads English newspaper. (©) If ane reads English newspaper, find the probability that she reads Hindi newspaper. INCERT] Ans-let A be the event “student reads Hindi Newspoper’: 8 be the event “rudent reads English Newspaper” Then, 60 40 Pay= 2a 06; PE= “2 w04; 8 00 00 20 Pans= 22-02 © (A) Here, we need to find PB) From (), we have PULUB) = PA) + P@)-PAME) 6 +0.4-02 Further, Pian 8) = PIA B)] =1-PAUB) -08=02(8) Here, we need tofind P(B | A) (©) Here, we need to find P(A 8). We know tht, We know that, 02.2 PAB) 02 2 "0673 PALE “Pg 042 [Toric 5 | MULTIPLICATION THEOREM If Aand 8 be two orbitrary events associated with the In the first draw, there are 26 black cards out of some somple space of the random experiment, then Sacords. PUA 9 8) = PCB). 6) and PB mA) = PLA). PB | A). 4 Provided P(A) » 0, P(B) = 0. So, PA) ae ‘These further yields (aa) = PANE), Pe) on = PAB) id PIA): PIA) Example 4.6: Two cards are drawn at random ‘and without replacement from a pack of 52 ‘After frst draw, there are 51 cards left So, in the second draw, there are 25 black cards out of 51 cards. sq Pe Ay = 25 Hence, Pfcath the cards are black) Playing cards. Find the probability that both the =PANB) cards are black. INCERT] £06. 36 Ans, Let A and B be the events of drawing a black = PAPE IA)= x= = cond in the fst drew end inthe second drow, Be stysi02 respectively [Topic 6 | INDEPENDENT EVENTS ‘Two events are said to be independent events If Ans. Let Abe the event that the number on the die is the occurrence of one event isnot affected by the res ‘occurrence of the other event. a4 So, P(A) = = == Mlustration: Let two cards be drawn from a pack 62 ‘of $2 cards, one ofter the other. Consider the events A ‘and as follows: ‘A: drawing on ace in the first draw, 8: drawing «queen in the second draw, If the card drawn in the first craw Is not replaced bbock, then the events & and B are dependent events Hf the cord drawn in the first draw is replaced back, ‘then the events A and B are independent events. i Important = For indepandent events A and 8 PCA) # 0 PB) = 0, we hove PLANE) = Pea PIBIA) = PE) ond PAB) = PONG) PAB) = 1 PAI) @)A’and Bare independent events (A and 8 ore independent events Example 4.7: A die marked 1, 2,3 in red and 4,5, Gin green ie tossed. Let A be the event, ‘the number Is even’ and 8 be the event, ‘the number is red: Are ‘and Bindependent? INCERT] Let B be the event thatthe numbers red 302 SOPB)= "7 Now, A 9 B is the event when number is even ‘ond marked red, > AnB=i2 $0, PAN B)= Now, P(A) « PQ) = > PNB) + PLA) «PE Hence events A and 8 are not independent. Example 1.8: Probability of solving a specific problem independently by A ond B are + and ; respectively. If both try to solve the problem Independently, find the probabiliy that:(A) the problem is solved. (®) exactly one of them solves the problem. INceRr] Astra 90)» ona) = 2 mpajat-pyer-deds ond P@)=1-P(a)a1-F=3 () Piproblem is solved) = P(A solves the problem or B solves the problem) =P(AUB) = P(A) +PIE)-PAN 8) [Using eddition theorem} = P(A) + PEE) PIAL) [rv Aond 8 ore independent events] (8) P(exactly one of them solves the problem) = PAB) + PIA 8) = PVP) + PAIPO) 12,11 2°3°2"3 OBJECTIVE Type Questions [1 mark] Multiple Choice Questions 1. The probability of obtaining an even prime number on each die, when a pair of dice Is rolled, is: @o i 1 1 © D @ rt ans. (i) A Explanation: When pole of dice i rolled, then r{) = 36. There is only one pair ie, (2,2) having even prime number on each die. Thus, probability of obtaining an even prime number eed oneach dels 2. 2.ItAend rte eth tet = 2, PE) = Fond P(A | 8) = 4 then POA’ m9 BD equals: 1 3 os oF 1 3 oF oz aans.(9 4 Explanation: ‘We know, P(A | 6) = ACB) ow, PCA | B) PE) 1, Ans) a7 1 = PaAng= + Now, PA‘ B= lA UY] =1-PAUB) = 1-[P()+P@)-PANB)) 124 sles i] 644-1 Ae) 1S 3e1 @ concept Applied \ Fire find the value of PUA B) then ind the value of PIA’ 8) by oppluing the desired formula,3. GifA and 8 are events such that P(A) = 0.4, P(@) = 0.3 and P(A U B) = 0.5, then P(E’ A) equals: 2 1 2 mF 3 1 Os oz INCERT Exemplar] 4, IFA ond B ore two Independent events with Pia)= 2 ond P(@)= then PX’ 6} equals: 4 8 os or 1 2 © 3 @ si [NCERT Exernpta] Ans. 2 Explanation: PAB) = 1-PAUB) = PA) + PE) - PAB) = 1-[P(A) + P(B)— P(A). PB) ‘And 8 are independent events} ot- (244-3, - & os ) 2420-12 A) Sioa oh 45 * 99 5. @if A and B are two events such that P(A) “+ P(B)~ P(A and 6) = P(A), then (@) P(BIA) = 1 (b) P(AIB) = 1 © POIA=0 (a) PIAIE) = INCERT] 6. @A die is thrown once. Let A be the event that the number obtained fs greater than 3. Let B be the event that the number obtained Isless than 5. Then P(A UB) le 2 3 a? ©? @o (1 (e8se2020) 7. If A and B are events such that P(AJB) = P(BIA), then: ()ACBbutAsB (b)A=B (© ANBed (d) P(A) = P(B) ‘Ans. (a) P(A) = PY) Explanation: Here, PAIB) = PBIA) PLAN) PAAB) pray 2 me” Pay APO > PKA)= PCB) 'B. Acard is picked at random from a pack of 52 19 cards. Given that the picked card Is en, the probability of this card to be a card of spade is: x 4 OF OF 1 1 oF © 5 (€8se2020) 1 Ans. () 3 Explanation: Let A be the event that the picked card Is spade ond B be the event that picked card isa queen. There are 13 spade cords and 4 queens ond ‘only one queen is spade. So, r(d) = 13.n(8) = 4 ‘And nf&B) = Now, Required probability = P(A/a) ANB) ‘Two events A and B are independent, ift (0) A and B ore mutually exclusive () POR’ B) = [1 - PEEL - PED) © PA)=P@) (2) PA) +P@)=1 Ans, (0) P(A‘ 8) = [1 ~ PA){1 - PE) Explanation: We know that iF A and B ore Independent events, then PAM) = PIA) PB) So, PIA B) = PLA) x PE) =[1- Pay -Pe) 10, Gif A and B are two events such that Ac B ‘ond P(®) « 0, then which of the following is correct? P (a) PAIB) ae (b) PIAIB) < PA) (© PAIB)= P(A) (@) None of these 44. Two events E and F are independent. Hf P@) = 03 ond PE UF) = 05, then PCE | F)~ PCF |B) equals: Ors oz 4 a OF oF Ans.Explanation: Sine, E and F are Independent 43. @P(A U 6) = P(A n B, if ond only ifthe vents relation between P(A) and PCB) i: PENA =Pe.P PA=PA)— O)PIAUB)= PIA NBD Now EUR) =P +P -PENA (PA)=PE) —_(@)None ofthese 2 05-034 PF)-03 xP) [DIKSHA] = 02=P@L-03] 14. The covid pandemic has clolmed several 2 lives s0 far’ and therefore the government = pa they atectled: a a Noein: debe ies ‘accnate alle cizena by giving them two 2 PEIA=PEID = PEO PEA doses of the covid vaccine. Let A be the event PO of a perton belng vaccinated and 8 be the eae vent that a pertn os recived te doses PA PO) = =PE)-PIF) 2 = 03-3 otu2 “To°7 _ 21-20 “70 ; iF P(A) = 2, PB) =0, then PCAIE) ie: a) @o wm? A\ caution (© not defined (4) 1 Une the coneapt of independent evant to nd PE) Ans. (0) not defined Explanation: We know that Praja) = PAB) PAO) _ noe defined + then P(BTA) is: Pe) & 415. Dethi Metrois the life line of Dethithese days ot “Goal Tole people’ preter wali the’ tre a for commuting to their offices. Let A be the ‘event that during the office hour, passengers (1 [CBSE2020) ‘re travelling by metro and B the event that. metro is running, subject to no technical faults or pandemic situation. and PEMA. If A and B are twa independent events with PIA) = : cand P(B) = + a © ° Ans. () Explanation: Here, A and B are independent vaca wihPA)= ¥ond@)= a PRN A) Now, PRIA) = PUPA) PLAY [+ Acand 8 are independent events) é P(B)=1-Pe) Hf A and B are two events such that P(A) * 0 ‘and P(@|A) = 1, then: @AcB (BCA © B=6 @AqoAns. (3) ACB Explanation: tis given that PIA) = 1. PANS Pe = OR PAB) PAY PAB) = PIA) AcB =1 VERY SHORT ANSWER Type Questions (VSA) [1 marke] 16. Two cards are drawn at random and one-by- ‘one without replacement from a well shuffled pack of 52 playing cards. Find the probability that one card is red and others black. [CBSE 2020) ‘Ans. There are 26 red cards and 26 bleck cards in a deckof §2 ploying cords. Let R and B denote the events of drawing red card and block card, reepectvely Now Required probability «= Pfirst card is red and second one is black) + P(fist card is black and eecond one is red) = PAR) x POBIR) + PCB) x PRRIB) _ 26,26 26 26 525175251 17. @the probability thot at least one of the two events A and B occur is 0.6. If A and B ‘occur simultaneously with probability 0.3, evaluate P(A) +P(B). _[NCERT Exemplar] 418. Three dice are thrown at the same time. Find the probobility of getting three two's, if itis known that the sum of the numbers on the ice was thx INCERT Exempler] ‘Ans. On a throw of three dice the sample space (5) = 6 = 216 Let, E, be the event thot the sum of the numbers on the thre dice wos six and, E> be the event that three two's occurs. = Epa {01.4} 0,2.3.0,2.2.(,4,0, G13,0.22.0,3.,612, 2.0.4.1) = ffs) = 10 and Ea = (2,2, Nhe m2) Also, Ey Ep = (2.2.25 jen mE}=1 PEELE) PEE = PE) eet io/216~ 10 19. A problem is glven to three students whose 1a og2 robabllties of colving it are 2,2 and 2 er 9 z @ respectively. If the events of solving the problem are independent, find the probability that at least one of them solves it. ‘Ans. Let A, 8, C be the events of solving the problem by the three students respectively . 1 1 1 2 P(A) = 5. PB) = 3 and PQ = = Since, the events of solving the problem are independent. «-Platleast one of them solves) 1.=Pnone of them solves it) 1-PAnBne = 1-PCA)P@)P(C) =1-[1-PAllt - PEA -PO} ded) PAUB) then find P(A’ AB). 24. IF P(A) = 05, PQB) = 0.4 and Pr B) = 03, {hen whats the vale of PL F AY) P(A) _ PAU BY ans of & mE) ae ne = 1:P(AuB) i-P@)(P(A) +P -P@) _ 1-[05+04~03} _04 “—"[0a "08 PANE a 22. @itA ond B are two independent events euch that POs) = £ ond PO) = 3, then find the value of P(neither A nor B). 23, Events E and F are such thet P(not E or not F)= 0.25. State whether E and Fare mutually ‘exclusive, ‘Ans. Given Plnct E or not F) = 0.25 > PEUF) =PEN We know, PEN FY +P(EMF)=1 > PENA =1-PEnAy > PEMA) =1-025=07520 Hence, Eand F are not mutually exclusive =025 24. Four cards are successively drawn without replacement from a deck of 32 playing cards. Whatis the probability that all four cards ore kings? ‘Ans. Let, Adenote the event that the frst cords king, 'B denote the event that the second card is king, C denote the event that the third card is king, ‘and D denote the event that the fourth card ie King. Now PAN BmcnD) = P(A) x PRIA) « PCA) x POIANBAG) 4.3.2.1, 21 * sai" 50% a9 "270705 25. @A box contains 3 orange bails green lla and 2 blue bolls. Thre bells are drawn at random from the bax without replacement. What i probability of drawing 2 green balls and one blueball? SHORT ANSWER Type-! Questions (SA-I) [2 mars] P¢@) = Sond PCAME)= PAL) Pela (© PA'B) (0) P(A’ | BD {NGERT Exemplar] = LEIP(A) + P@) PARA 1=P@) 7) 1-7) + Pam =RAUEY -1-PAUB27. Out of 8 outstanding students of a school, in which there are 3 boys and 5 girls, a team of 4 students is to be selected for a quiz ‘competition. Find the probability that 2 boys ‘ond 2 girls are selected. [CBSE 2019] ‘Ans. Total number of students Total number of ways to select 4 students a! ut of B= Cy = 27 = 70. Now, number of ways te select 2 boys and 2 girs #31020 +. Required probabitty = 20 = 2 28. Prove that If E ond F ore independent events, then the events €' and Fare cleo independent. [cBse 2018] ‘Ans. Gven.€ ond ore independert events PENA = POPE) Now, PEA F)=1-PEUR [: P@AP)=PEUAI =1-[P@)+PA)-PENA) =1-PE)-PA + PENA = 1-PE)-PR + PED PR 1-PE)-PA [2 - PQ) =[1-P@y[1- PR] = PE IPF) Hence. and Fare independent events. 29. The probability of finding a green signal fon @ busy crossing X is 30% What is the probability of finding a green signal on X on ‘two consecutive days out of three? [cBSE 2020] ‘Ans. Let G be the event of finding « green signal + Required probability = P(GGG) + PIGS) ay¥ 7.7/3 (35) orvelzo ZH Y00'10* 10" 00 63, 63 006 * 7006 63 500 30. In the game of archery, the probability of Lkth and Harih hitting the target are 2 cand > respectively. If both of them shoot an arrow, find the probability that the target is NOT hit by either of them. Show your steps. ‘Ans. Let events Lond H be defined as follows: LL = Lith hie the target H = Horish hit the target Now, required probability = PCTorget is net by either of them) = PCA =P) * PH [rs Land H are independent events} = [2 -Pu) ft -PH)) 31. @An urn contains 10 black and 5 white balls. Two balls are drawn from the urn one ‘fter the other without replacement. What is the probability that both drawn balls ore black? 32.Two cards ore drawn at random from pack of $2 cards one-by-one without replacement. What is the probabilty of ‘getting fst card red and second card Jack? [CBSE Term-2 SOP 2022] ‘Ans. ‘The required probability = P(The first is 0 red Jack card and The second is a jack card) or (The first is o red non-jock card and The second Is @ jack card) 2 [CBSE Marking Scheme Term-2 SQP 2022] Explanation: There are $2 cords ina pack of cords. No.of red cards = 26 No.of jacks = 4 Required probability = P(First card non-jackred, ‘second card jack) + Pfr card red jack, eecond card jack)(26-2) 52 2d 52°51 9546 52x51 34 Baxi? et 52°26 33. @A bag contains 5 red and 3 blue balls. If 3 balls are drawn at random without replacement, then what is the probability of getting exactly one red ball? 34. @there ore 25 tickets bearing mumbers from 1to25-One ticket drawn et random. Find the probablty thatthe number on fs multiple of Sor 6. 35. A speaks truth in 80% cases and B speck truth in 90% cases. In what percentage of cases are they likely to agree with each ‘other in stating the same fact? [cBse SgP 2020) ‘Ans. We have events A ond B os, speaks truth :B speoks truth. 808 Pw acox= Se 90 9 ‘ond Pg =90%= 0. 5 Now Required probability = P(A and 8 agree with each other) = P(Beth A and 8 speats truth or bath A and 8 ties) = PAB or AB) = Pras) + PAB) = P(A)P(B) + PCA)PE) = POA)P(B) + [1 - POAIIIA - PE) 2 44-8V4-2 to we (a. (1-3) os eee ee * 00 * 100 “100 Hence, percentage of eases in which they are likely to agree with each other in stating the ‘same facts 74%. SHORT ANSWER Type-!| Questions (SA-II) [3 marks] 36.Two dice are tossed. Find whether the following two events A and 8 are independent. Am lis uhix+ y = 14) ond B = Ie ix #5) where (x y) denotes a typical sample point. INCERT Exernplor] tom ices fe yiix + y = 11} ond B = f(x. yh 2 ARIG.O6 5) = {(, 2) (2,2, G, 9, (1,4) (2, 5), (1,6), 2.0, @.2, 2.3), 2. 4) 5), 2 6) G1, 2, 2) G3)... (3,5). (3,8) (4.1) (4.2. (4,3), (6.4) 6,34 (4,01.06, 0. (6.21.(6,3). 16.4). (6.5), (6.6) a0, B = (6,5) = ni8)=2,n8)=30 and rin 6)=3 ae P= 5 ag ra 2 alu = PLP) = * And Pian a)= Ee = PA).PG) # PIB) So,A and B are not independent events. LQ Caution ™ Form the sample space careflly by using the given condition 137. Two dice are thrown together and the total ‘core Is noted, The events E, F and G, are ‘a total of 4 ‘a total of 8 or more’ and ‘a total divisible by 5' respectively. Catculate P(E, PIF) and P(G) and decide which pairs of events, if any, are independent. INCERT Exemplar} ‘Ans. Two dice are thrown together. nfs) = 36Now, Event E = A total of 4 2.2), 3.1). 3 = n@=3 Event F =Total of @ or more. =1B.0.16 3). 4.9.4. 94(5.44 (6.4), 65.6.69.60) = nf) =10 Event G = A total divisible by § = 10.4.4, 29 2.9.2.2, 66.6) 64.6.5} = G) = 7 Hera, ENF =bandEnG=6 Ais FG =14, 64.6, 4405, 591 > AFNG) =3endEnFaG=¢ r= Be eo rm = Bn oS ro = 4 s and PALPG = 3.2 - Here, we see that PF @ #PO.P(S) Hence there is no par whichis independent. 30. Prove that: MPW=PADESPAND @PALH=PANE PANE PANE INCERT Exemplar] Ans. (8) z zs S Y he Wehave,A=AS. Anum _ = tan bund Als, An B ond AmB ore mutuolly exclusive _ P(A) = PAM B) + PAB) ® LD ana ‘By the diagram, we can see that AUB=@nBUAN|UANB) Also, (A 0B (A.B) and & 0 8) are mutually exclusive *, POLUB) =PANB) + PANG) + PNB) A\ caution oe cs roe eas ah de em Fon eam eowianee 1. Anu shar ach ae hd Hac Way woes boy on e gh ita fry hoe oes thilaren, wher isthe condtionl probate Srarbonh cet than tae (A) the youngest is a girl (@) ot least one isa girt [case 2014] ‘Ans. Let G;(/= 1.2) and By = 1, 2) denote the # child isagil and a boy, respe Then, sample space is, (Sy, GB, 846, BB} Let A be the event that both children are girls, B be the event that that youngest child is a girl and C be the event that atleast one of the children isa gir. Then, A= {GiG2} fe. n(A)=1 8 ~{G)G2,8:Gz} 12, n(@) =2 C= {GiG2.Gi8z.BxGz} 12, (0) =3 =1G.GJienANB=1 ively, nA end AM C= {G,G,}ie.nfAnC)=2 (9). Required probability = (Ae) ANB) Pe) (8) Required probability 40. The probobilties of two students A and B coming to the school in time are 2 and © 7 eG respectively. Assuming that the events ‘Acoming in ti time! ore independent, find the probability of only one of them coming to the school in time. Give ‘one advantage of coming to schaol on time. [ease 2013} ‘Ans. Let be the event that Ais coming in time. . 3 “ PE) = 5 [And Foe the event that Bs coming in time. 5 pms Also, E ond F are given to be Independent ‘events, ‘Probability of only one of them coming to ‘school in time = PCE)PKF) + PRE) PEF) “3 i =2x 7 8,20 ry ‘As education is very important for the ‘overall growth and development of a child, ‘50 punctuality is the frst concept need to be developed for getting the education. 41. @A fair die is rolled. Consider the following events: Ax 12,4,6],B= {4,5} and C= {3, 4,5, 6} Find (4) P(A W BIC) (8) PLA BIC) 42. @A bag contains 5 white, 7 red and 8 black bolls. If four balls ore drawn one by ‘one without replacement, then find the probability of getting all white balls. 43. @in a college, 70% students pass in physics, 75% students pass in mathernaties and 10% ‘students fall in both. One student is chosen ‘at random. What is the probability that (A) he passes in physics and mathematics, (@) he passes in mathematics, given thet he passes in physics, (© he passesin physics, given that he passes in mathematics? LONG ANSWER Type Questions (LA) [4&5 mars] 44. In a hockey match, both teams A and B scored same number of goals upto the end of the game, so as to decide the winner, the refree asked both the captains to throw a die alternately and decided that the team, whose captain gets a six first, will be declared the winner. If the captain of team ‘A was asked to start, find thelr respective probabilities of winning the match and state whether the decision of the refree was fair or not. [cBse 2013) ‘Ans. Respective probabilities of getting a six by the ‘coptains of both the teams A and Bis 1 Pia) = te) = 2 PAA) «PB =~ Since, A start the game, then if A wins then following events occurs in mutually exclusive +: Probability that A wins = P(A) + P(ABA) + P(ABABA) + = P(A) + PCA)PIB)P(A) + PLAP(EP(AIPE) P(A) + “he (sens) 2. Probobity that A wins Hence, the probability of team A wining the match is © in‘Since, the total probability of winning of A cnd 47. If A.and B are two Independent events such 1 cabling of ther CRB) = ond PAB)» Gen P(a) = 1-PCA) find P(A) and PC), {case 2015) = 1-$ ‘Ans. Here. A ond 8 ore independent events. “s Aco, PAB) = 2 i _ % ‘The decision is not far, os the one who storts mr RINRB) ss iy Ce eG {Since, A and 8 are independent, therefore, A 4S. Consider the experiment of tossing a coln, ‘nd 8 are also independent} If the coin shows head, toss it again, but aot if It shows toil, then throw a die, Find the And, P(ANB) = & conditional probability of the event that ‘the : die shows a number greater than 4’ given = P¢ayiB) = -) that there Is atleast one tail, [CBSE 2014] Ans. The sample space for given experiment is bee FN= 2 S = fH. Hy CHT Mh CT, 2), 3h 4), ad aa (.5).(1.6}}.ond ‘ond Pe) =4 Let Abe the evant that the die shows a number > PQ) =1-P(e)=1-4 eater thon 4 and B be the event that there le ererar itor How tom od get 2 A= {75}. 8) Q-pla= ti B= 4, 0.1.2 (1,3). (1.4), 94 (7,6).04, 1 So,AAB = {(T, 9: (1.6) and pags wy) Now, PC) = P(CT. 2) + PICT. 201+ PICT It 5 + PICT. 8} + PIC. 8) + PAC. 6) ‘Subtracting (9 from (w). we get + PIT} G song PMGt 5p Furing the vole tpn Ow get wars ie (regres 2.2 > Bhs 2%. 2 a x78 as => 30g? 29q44=0 => 30q?-24q-5q+4=0 46. @For a loaded die, the probablitles of =36q(5q~-4)~ 165q~4)=0 ‘outcomes are given as under: = (6q~1K5q-4)=0 P(A) = P(2) = 0.2, PG) = P(S) = P(6) = 0.4 and _ ectignd Pid) =0.3. The die is thrown two times. Let A and B be the events ‘same number each time’, and 4 ‘total score Is 10 or more, respectively. Determine whether or not A and B ore (1-2) Independent. INCERT Exemplar] Using (W), we hove 4 6- fe - > ong > eu Foran} ung tawehoe . eben 0-§)-3 or Pa)= 2, r@ «2BAYES' THEOREM, RANDOM VARIABLE AND ITS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION | TOPIC 1] PARTITION OF A SAMPLE SPACE AA sot of events Ey, En, —- Enis old to represent Partition ofthe sample space Sif () VEU E,=S @ FAG h leis d 2300 @) PE)>Oforelli=1,2.3,.0 In other words, the events Ey, E>, represent a Porttion of the sample spece S if they ore poir wise lisjoint, exhaustive and have non-zero probabilities. Mlustration: Any non-empty event E and ite ‘complement £ form a partition of the sample space Since they satisfy EUE’= Sond ENE’ =4. A\ caution The portion of a tomple space ie not unique There can ‘be several parttions ofthe some sample space. [Topic 2| THEOREM OF TOTAL PROBABILITY Let Ey, Ex —- E, be n non-empty events which constitutes @ partition of sample space S. Let A be ‘any event associated with §, Then, PIA) = PUES)POA | En) + PCEa)PIAL Ez) + ~ + PCE). POA LE) Example 2.1: Two-thirds of the students of a class are boys and the rest are girs. [tls known that the probability of a girl getting A grade in Board's examination is 0.4 and of a boy getting A grade Is 0.38. Find the probability that a student chosen ot random will get A grade in the examination, ‘Ans. Let events E;, Ez. be defined os E,:A boy Is chosen: Ep: A glrlis chosere A: The student gets A grade, Clearly, £1 and E> constitute a partition of sample space S. 1 2 PED = 5. PC a Also, P(A | Ei) = 035, P(A|E:) = 04 We need to determine P(A), Using theorem of total probability, we have PA) = PIEDPIA | Es) + PCE2).PCAI Ea) = 2x035+1x04 3 3 Example 2.2: An urn contains 5 red and 5 black bolls. Aballis drawn at random, its colours noted ‘and is returned to the urn. Moreover, 2 additional balls of the colour drawn, are put in the urn and then a ball fs drawn at random. What is the probability that the second ballis red? [NCERT] Ans. Let events Ey, &,A be defined as E,: The red boll is drown in the first draw, Ez: The black balls drawn inthe frst draw, A: The ball drawn in the second draw ie red, Clearly, &, and & constitute a partition of sample space S. Also.) = 5 When 2 additional balls of red color are put in the urn, there are 7 red and § black balls in the urn. PAled= When 2 additional balls of black colour ore put In the urn, there are 5 red and 7 black balls in the urn, ‘ 2 PIED = 5 We need to determine P(A). Using theorem of total probability, we have (A) = PIE;) POAIE) + PIE2)PIAIE:) why Zeb, Pa PD afte? “a2Example 2.3: A bag contains (2n + 1) eoins. itis known that (n = 3) of these coins have a head on both sides, whereas the rest of the cxins are fair. ‘Acoln is picked up at random from the bag and is tossed. Ifthe probability that the toss results in a (weer) head is 34, determine the value of n. a ‘Ans. Let events Ey, E,A be defined as Ey: Picking @ coin with head on both sides; Picking a fair coin; A: Getting head on tossing the coin n-1 ane n42 2net ‘Also, PE) = PIE) = PALED=1Peley= 2 We need to determine P(A). Using theorem of total probability, we have P(A) = PIE:)PCA LE) + PCED) PCA Ea) nd, m2 2 ane ant *2 2» 2n+1) larly &, and Ep constitute «partion of ang 3t et ee Equeing aos to, wegetm=31 [Topic 3 | BAYES' THEOREM Let Ey, En — Ey ben non-empty events which constitutes « partition of sample space S. Let A be ‘any event of non-zero probability. Then, PCE PAIE)) PEA = oO for any i= 12,340 Freeypaigy Example 2.4: A bog contains 4 red and 4 block bolls, another bag contains 2 red and 6 black balls. (One of the two bags is selected at random and a bball is drawn from the bag which is found to be red. Find the probability that the ball is drawn from the first bag. INCERT] ‘Ans. Let events Ey, Fa, be defined as ; :Ball is drawn from the first bag: Boll is drawn from the second bag: A: Boll drawn is red. 2 PE) = PCE Also, POE) = B=} ‘We need to determine P(E; | A). Using Baye’ Theorem, wa have PCE.) P(A TE) y= PEDAL) REID" BE PATE) PE NAATED PIRIE) = Pos Example 2.5: An insurance company insured 2000 scooter drivers, 4000 car drivers and 6000 truck drivers. The probability of their accidents ‘re 0.03, 0.03 and 0.15 respectively. One of the Insured persons meets with an accident. What Is the probability that he is a scooter driver? [NCERT] ‘Ans. Let events Ey, £2, Es, A be defined as E; : Company insured scooter driver E_: Company insured car driver; Es: Company insured truck driver; ‘A: Person meets with an accident. ‘Also, P(A |E3) = 001, P(A |) = 003, PAE) = 015 ‘We need to determine PE: | A). Using Bayes! Theorem, we have POE A) . POE,)PCAIE,) PE)PIATE) PE, )PAIE,) PE,)PCAIE) 1 “; 3x01 2xo01+4%003 +3: =a deoor+dxo0a+dxais Example 2.6: Suppose a girl throws a die. If she ‘gets 0.5 oF 6 she tossee @ coin three times and notes the number of heads. If she gets 1, 2,3 or 4, she tosses a coin once and notes whether a head ‘or tailis obtained. If she obtained exactly one head, ‘what isthe probebilty that she threw , 2,3 or 4 with the die?‘Ans. Let events Ey, £2, be defined as E, :Girl gets 5 or 6 on throwing a dle; Ey:Girl gets 1. 2,3 or 4 on throwing o die: ‘actly one head appears on the coin. teh 4.2 PE) 2 3 Pee Now, probability of getting exactly one head ‘on tossing a cain three times, ie, P(A | £2) = PUHTT) + PCTHT) + PCTTH) ehdadadidelyldyd 222" 2" 2"2 52" 2"2 673 3 8 Probability of getting exactly one head on tossing a coin once, ie, Paled= ‘We need to determine P(E;{A) Using Boyes! Theorem, we have PEE,)P(A | PE A)= 28 BENPOAE) + EYP TED | ToPIc 4 | RANDOM VARIABLE ‘A-recl valued function X dafined on a sample space of @ random experiment s called o random variable. Mlustration: In the toss of three fair coins, the ‘number of heads obtained is a random variable. t can ‘take the values 0, 1, 2 oF 3. Discrete/Continuous Random Variable a random variable tokes finite number of values or it tokes values of an infinite sequence of real numbers, ‘then it iscolled discrete random variable. Ifthe ronge of a random variable isan interval, then it is called continuous random variable. Mlustration: Number of print mistckes on a rondomly selected page of a book is a discrete random variable; whereas person's blood pressure is ‘2 continuous random variable, A\caution ere ms br noua ano vo the term ‘random [ToPIc5 | PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF A DICRETE RANDOM VARIABLE Let X be a discrete random variable taking values x, 2 Let py. Pa Ps —=.py denote the corresponding provobitissa,p)= POC=) foreveryie 23. sctifjing p> Oand Y".. p=. ‘Then the tabular representation (aE) a _ Le LPR=x) Pr Pa Pa ae a AG aon Be fandom Tui ah cai ae ri uffled pack of $2 cards. Find the ribution of number of spade cards. ‘Ans. The number of ways in wiich two cards can be drawn from a well-shuffled pack of $2 cards aC, = 1326 Let X be the number of spade cards. Then, X con take values 0, 1,2 {drawing no spade card) Bey, 741, 29 Sc, 1326 34 PX = 1) = P (drawing only 1 spade card) *c, 4 P(X = 2)= P(drawing 2 spade cards) etn Ot 0, 734 "17 Sate probablty citrbuton of Xi x [o[a]2 PK=ex) 19 13 1 | aa | a | 7 Example 2.8: State which ofthe following are not the probability distributions of a random variable. Give reasons for your answer. wx |olal 2 PO) 04 04 02@[xfolal2]al« | Poo | 04 | 04 | 0.2 |-01) 03 © Y |-a o| 1 | Pm | 06 |o1 | 0.2 | m[2z[s[2[1[e[a P@ 03/02/04 | o4 | 0.05 INCERT] ‘Ans. For tho probability ditibution we need to check the folowing twe things (2) All probabilities must be positive; and (2) The sum of the probabilities should be 1. (A) Here, oll probabiltes ore postive and thelr ‘sum (0.4 + 0.4 + 0.2) is equal to 2. So, it Is o probability distribution. (8) Here, all probabilities are not positive Poc=3)=- 0a} Sa,it isnot a prabobilty detibution (©) Here, the sum of all the probabilities is not aqualtos, [06+01+ 02-091] Saitie ret a probabity cetrbution. (0) Here, the sum of all the probabilities is not equalto 1. [0.3 +02 +0401 + 005 »105> 1} Save rot a probably cetrbution. Example 2.9: Find the probabilty distribution of the number of successes in two torses ofa de, Where a success is defines ax (A) number greater than 4; ® six appears on atleast one die, ——_[NCERT] ‘Ans. (A) LetX be the random variable which denotes ‘the number of numbers greater thon 4 in ‘wo tosses of adi. 59,X moy take values 0,1 or 2 Now, P(X = 0) = Probability of getting numbers less than or equal to 4 on both the tosses “eE"S PQ = 1) = Probability of getting numbers less than or equal to 4 on one toss ond greater than 4 on another toss 4,242,404 “sees POK = 2) = Probably of getting numbers areater thon 4 on both the tosses. 2,21 Thus, required probability distribution is x ° 1 2 4 = as PMaxd| 9 3 3 (@) Let X be the random variable which denotes the number of sixes in two tosses of a die. So, X may toke values 0, 1 or 2. Now. PO = 0) = Probability of no six en tivo P(K = 1) = Probability ofsixon onetossand ‘on sixon cnather toss Thus required probly ditribution i x 0 1 2 a | a | a PHsN! 36 36 36 Example 2.10: The random variable X has a probability distribution P(X) of the following form, ‘where kis some number: kk, fx =o 2k, fx =a. POD Nak, x2 lo, otherwise (A) Determine the value of k (B) Find P(X < 2), PX <2), P22). Ans. (A) Here, k+ 2k + 3k= 1 (NeERT] 1 skal (8) POX <2) = P(O) + PCA) = ks thw 3k m ax8 PK < 2) = P(O) + PCI) + P(2) ake 2k k= 6e= 6x 2 P(X = 2) = P(2) + Plotherwise) aa weeds Fad[Topic 6 | MEAN OF A RANDOM VARIABLE Let X be a discrete random variable taking values x3, 2X Fo Let, pi. pa. pa Py denote the corresponding probabilties le, p= P(X = x),for every! = 1,2,3,47 satisfying pi> 0 and O",p, = 1. Then, the moan of X denoted by p, is the number re Ld Caution The meon of @ random voriable X ie algo cated the expectation ofX denoted by E00. In other words, the mean or expectation of o random Voriabte X i¢ the sum of the products of cll possible volues of X and their corresponding probatilties. Example 2.11: Find the mean number of heads In three tosses of a coin. INCERT] ‘Ans. Let X be the random variable of ‘number of heads’ Then, X= 0,1, 2,3, P(X = 0)= P{no hecd) = Pal tals) waded wixixiel 2%2%2 "8 PO =1)= PCL head and 2 tolls) = POATT) + PCTTH + PCTHT) P(X = 2) = PC2 heads ond 1 tail) = POAHT) + PHTH) + PTH) ans 1. PO= 3) Plaltheads)= 2x 3x5 ; = axfbxdx ‘Thus, the mean of X = Eh (0x4) +(<8)+(2*3)+(4) LX caution No need to mote the probabiity itributon ofX unless specified OBJECTIVE Type Questions [1 mark] Multiple Choice Ques! 4. Prbobity thot A speaks truth is. Acoln Is tossed. A reports that a head appears. The probability that actually there was a head, te 4 1 o@? ©} 1 2 ot 2 4 Ans. (a) 5 Explanation: Let events Ey, £, A respectively be defined as E,:A speats truth: E,: A does not speck truth; A: Head appears on tossing a coin, We need to determine PE; Using Boye’ theorern, we have . PIE,)PUALE,) PELL = Fe yP0a 1) + PE)POATED) 2.@bag | contains 2 white and 3 red balls ‘and Bag contains 4 white and 5 red ball, One ball is drawn at random from one of the bags and'is found to be red. Then, the proboblty that it wos drawn from bog 825 25 os 2 45 5 o% oF The mean of the numbers obtained on throwing a die having written 1 on three faces, 2 on two faces and 5 on one face, is @t 2 @s oe 3 ans. @) 2 Explanation: Let X be the random variable denoting the number obtained on throwing a die. ‘Then, X takes the volues 2, 2 and 5, ‘The corresponding probabilities are: a yt aod PO = 1) = 3 oF 5: PKK = 2) = 2 or 3 =5a2 PK =5)= = 0, the mean of X is A agt nept weix}+axi45xd rhe probability detrbution of « discrete random variable Xa given below: x | 2 a |i4 s_| Po St 8 El) ele | * The value of kis @s (&) 16 32 43 INCERT Exernptor 5. Um I contains 6 red and 4 black balls and urn I contains 4 red and 6 black balls. One ball Is drawn at random from urn | and placed in tum I If one ball is drawn at random from lum Ul, then the probability that It Is a red boll is: 3 4 o2 wos 2 2 o2 o2 ans. 22 Explanation: Let the events 8;, 82 and E respectively be defined as 8; : Red ball is transferred from Urn Ito Urn It B; : Black bol is transferred from Urn | red to Umit Red bell is drawn from Urn Then, PO) = 5, Pe) = 4 s zp PID =F. 4 Pee) = ‘We need to determine ©) Using Total Probability Theorem, we have PE) = PE:)PEIB,) + PBI PES) 55,4, 4 *40"ii* 30“ at 46 6,23 m0 5s 6. @the chonces that doctor A will diagnose 4 disease X correctly is 60%. The chances that a patient will die by his treatment after ‘correct diagnose Is 40% and the chance of death by wrong diagnosis Is 70%. A patient ‘of doctor A, who had disease X, died. What isthe chance that hie disease was diagnosed correctly? z 6 OF OF 3 7 oF OF 7+ Abox By contains 1 white, 3 red and 2 black ‘balls. Another box 8 contains 2 white, 3 red ‘and 4 black balls. A third box By contains 3 white, 4 red and § black balls. If two balls ‘are drawn (without replacement) from {a rondomly selected box and one of the balls is white and the other is red, then the probability of these two balls being drawn from box Ba, is: 116 126 © or © tr 6s. 55 Om © ta 55 ans (9 Te Explanation: Let the events E:, Ez, Ey ond A respectively be defined as: , !Both balls are from box Bs; jath balls are frarn box Bi; jath balls are fram box Bs: A: One ellis white and the other is red. +. POE) = PC:) = PE) = $Al, PAE) = FB 2x3 PUAIE,) = X= = G8 We need to determine PEEIA). Using Bayes’ theorem, we have PEA PEPE) * BE JAE) + PE, )PIAE,)* PEJPIAIE) 1a “Tait,1,2 x5 "sss" qf a 2 a — maz steth . seit Sxats Sxl +5x6x2 55 * Yer 8. Suppose that two cards are drawn at random from a deck of $2 playing cards LetX be the number of aces obtained. Then the value of OK) Is: 37 5 oF os a B Z ans.) 2 OG Explanation: Let X be the random varcble denoting the number of aces obtained. Then, X can takes the values 0, 1,2. The corresponding probabilities are: 2 @ OF P= O)= acts 50,600 = 3 XP) 200 eben SO ane = 04192, 12 i326 * 1326 = 204 2 iaa6' "33 9. @two dice ore thrown simultaneously. If X denotes the number of sixes, then the ‘expected value of X is: 2 EQ = 3 (b) EX) = a 1 5 (oes 2 em =3 INCERT Exemplar} 10.A random variable X has the following distribution: Xex ° 1 PK=y) 5 ‘The mean of X is 1 oF ws or @2 ‘Ans. (1 Explanation: Here, 09 = EXPO, CASE BASED Questions (CBQs) [4 & 5mors] Read the following passages and answer the questions that follow: 414. Foran audition of o realty singing competition, interested candidates were asked to opplyUnder one of the two musical genres - folk or classical and under one of the two age categories - below 18 or 18 ond above. The following information is known about the £2000 applications received: #960 of the totol opplications were for the folk gear. #192 of the fotk applications were for the below 18 category. #104 of the classical applications were for the 18 ond ahove category. (What is the probability that on application selected at random is for the 18 and above category provided it is under the elossical genre? Show your work. © An application selected at random is found to be under the below 18 category. Find the probability thet itis under the folk genre Show your work. [Delhi Gov. 2022] Let the events A, 8, C and D be defined os follows: ‘A= Application i for flk genre 8B = Application for classical genre. C= Applicationis for age category below 18, D= Application is for age category 18 or above : _ 960 12 = P= Zo00 * 25 PB) =1- PA) Also, > nfAnvB)=960-192=768 and n@n0)= 108 = BC) = 1040-104 = 936 : Number of opplications of classical genre =2000-960=1040] (A) Required probability = P08) = PAB) Pe 106413, 2000 . 250_ 1 33" a “Io 2% 35 Required probability = PAAIC) . PCANPICIA) PRIPCIA)+ PEPICIB) [Using Bayes’ theorem] P(A)x ACOA) A) EAB) EO og PIA ‘Ay (8) [Using conditional probability) 12,192 a2 = 12s, 12,250 Feat * 125" tar 250 8 a7 12.A factory has two machines P and Q for ‘manufacturing an item. Post record shows that ‘machine P produces 60% of the items of the ‘ouput and machine Q produces 40% of the items of the output. Further, 2% of the items produced by machine P and 1% produced by machine Q are defective. All the items ‘produced in a day are put in one stockpile. One item is picked at random from the stocipile (A) What is the probability that thie item is defective? (©) Ifthe item is defective one, then what is ‘the probability that this item is produced by machine P? ‘Ans. (A) Let the events E, F and A respectively be defined as: Ey: tems produced by machine P: Ep: Item is produced by machine Q; ‘A: Picked up item is defective. Then, P(E) = 06; PE) = 0.4; PATE) = 002; PAIE:) = 0.01 By theorem of Total Probability, we have PQ) = PIEPIAIED) + PIEAPOAIES) 16 «002404 x 001 =0012+0.004 = 0016(© Required probabitty is PEA. +. By Boyes" Theorem, we have PEPE) EA) = FEIN = BE RATE) + PENPATED = 086x002 ex002+047001 = 90123 *qois "47°78 13. A coach is training 3 players. He observes thot the player A can hita torget 4 times in 5 shots, player B can hit 3 times in 4 chots and the player Cean hie2 times in 3 shots. () Let the target is hit by A, B and Cone by ‘one. The probability that A, B and C all © @ (®) Referring to (A), what le the probability ‘that 8, C will hit and A will tose? 1 3 Os Oi 7%, 4 OF Os (©) @with references to the events mentioned in (A), what is the probability ‘that any two of A, B and C will hit? 1 it os oF 7 3 oz o@2 (©) @what is the probability that none of them wil hit the target? 1 1 oF os 1 2 od oz (© What is the probability that at least one of A,B or Cwill hit the target? o2 wz 2 os {CBSE Question Bonk 2023] ans. (9 6) 2 Explanation: Probability ofA hitting target, 4 Pas Probebilty of 8 hitting target, P(E) = Probeblity of Chiting target. PC) = 2 Probobility of A, 8, C hitting the target = PAA) x PB) » PIC) 43,2 3 Explanation: Probability of hitting the target by B and C, missing by A = POR) xP(®)xP(C) aa -(-$}e 59 eas Explanation: Required probability ‘= 1-P{none of them hitthe target) = 1-PAPHPC) aid % 59 “60 {Using part 0] 414. 1n a residential school of Haryana, o section (of Class XI class has chosen various subjects. School reported that 40% students chose ‘mathematics, 25% students chose Biology. 60% students chose Physics ond 55% studens chose Chemistry. They further gaveinformation that 50% students has chosen both Physics ond Chemisty, 30% students hos chosen both Physics ond Mathematics, whereas 15% students has chosen both Mothematce ond Biology. (A) What is the probobility that a student has chosen Mathematics, if it is known that he has chosen Biology ? (© @Whatis the probebity that a student has chosen Physis, fit is known that he has chosen Chemistry? ‘Ans. (A) Let A and B be the events defined as: ‘A: Student chose Mathematics 1: Student chose Biology: ‘AmB : Student chose both mathematics ‘and biology. Then P= 22, pene 2, 15 Pang = 3 Now. Required probobitty = PIE) PAB) PE) = 25/100 “25/100 ~ 5 15. The relabilty of a COVID PCR testis specified as follows: OF people having COVID, 90% of the test decects the disease but 10% goes undetected. OF people free of COVID, 99% of the test is judged COVID negative but 1% are diagnosed ‘a8 showing COV positive From o large population of which only 0.2% have COVID, one person is selected at random, given the COVID PCR test, and the pathologist reports him/her ‘a5 COVID positive. (A) What is the probability of the ‘person to be tested as COVID positive’ given that ‘he is actually having COVID?? (@ 0001 fore (© 08 os (©) What is the probability of the ‘person to be tested as COVID positive’ glen that ‘he is actually not having COVID'? (@ 001 © 099 ©) O1 (@) 0.001 (© What is the probability that the ‘person is actualy not having COVID? (a) 0.998 (@) 0.999 (©) 0.001 @) 0.111 (©) @vnar is the probability thot the ‘person ts actualy having COVID' given thot he is tested os COVID positive’? (0) 0.83 (b) 0.0803 (©) 0.083 (@) 0.089 (© What is the probobitty that the ‘person selected will be diagnosed as COVID positive’? (0) 0.1089 () 0.01089 (©) 0.0189 @ 0.188 (case Quen Son 2023 Ans. (A) (2) 0.9 Stra Pe) «tly os pean tnecedhos con «03% #2 001 P(G) = Probability that the person is tested ‘as COVD +ve :. PIGIQ = Probability that the test judges COMID 4ve, if person actually has COMD 90 =90%= 3-09 © (oor Explanation: PF) = Probability that person selected does not have COVID 1-P® = 1-001 = 0999 2 GIF) = Probability thot the person Judges COVIO +e if the person does not have COMD 1 =1%= + 001 106 (© 0999 Explanation: P(F) = Probability that person selected does not have COVID =1-P® 0.001 =0999© @a01089 Explanation: COVID positive) = PG) = PH PCIE) + PF) PIGIF) 1001 « 0.9 +0999 x 0.01 = 00009 + 0.00999 =0.01089 Pipotient diognosed as 46, There is o chamber of lavyyers in a session's court. They were discussing a case related to. the number of bullets a person had in the pistol. The case deals with the arms act with an ‘offense of possession of unauthorized bullets. There isa bit complerity in the problem due to involvement of probability. Reading about the cose, a tawyer scid, “the pistol contains 4 gold ‘and 3 sliver bullets. vent Es the drawing of 3 bullets in a random manner. Seing the lowyers, they do not know much about the probability of conviction, As a student of class Xi helo them to understand the following questions: Probability of getting no silver bullet i 1 Ox Oe @ 2 A Os OX ®) Probability of getting 2 sliver and 2 gold bullets is: 17 14 Os OF 18 17 Ox OF (©) @Probabitity of getting 2 silver and 1 ‘gold bullets is: 5 2 oF Os z 2 OF Os (©) @Prabeblity of getting 3 siverbulletsis: 1 2 ox oF 2 4 og os © Mean of event of drawing silver bullets i 9 7 @} ws 8 9 of Ox ane.) () Explanation: Pigetting no silver bullet) ‘= P(getting all gold bullets) te 4 Tes ae Cs (getting 1 silver and 2 gold xX 18 ate 9 Oa; Explanation: Let X be a random variable “denoting the number of silver bullets drawn’. Then, X takes values 0, 1,2, Using parts (A) to (0), we have Po = 1) = 38; Ke 2 So,mean of X= 0x4. 41x 1842512 35° “35. 1 +e +90 0418+ 2443) Ze - 8.2 77 27. coenarn 9. queso on o engl chole test for class Xil, a student either knows the onsuer or guesses. et 2 be the probably thet he knows the answer ard 2 be the probobtty th he guesses. Assume that 0 fudent who guesses ot the antwer wil be cornet with probity 2. Let, Ey Ebe the 3 ‘events that the students knows the answer, ‘guesses the answer and answers correctly, respectively, (A) Whats the value of P(E)? 2 1 @z oF 4 @?©) Volue of PEELE is: 1 a; @a g 4 OF os © DAT POEIELIPE,) equate u * Os os 1 OF @1 (©) Bvaiue of Diet PEL) 4 a Os ©? 3 or oz (©) What is the probability that the student knows the answer given that he ‘answered It correctly? @2 wo: 9 13 oF oF [CBSE Question Bank 2021) Ans. (8) () 2 Explanation: Given E) is the event that student knows the answer, PED ® er Explanation: Probability of giving the ‘answer correct on knowing the answer is 1. ‘Therefore, required probability is 1 3a E 5 CE ‘ Epon jen 31,2 Bras ix. PIE) 418. An insurance company believes thot people ‘can be divided into two classes thase who ‘are accident prone and those who are not. The compony's statistics show that an ‘accident-prone person will have an accident ‘az sometime within a fixed one-year period with probability 0.6, whereas this probability is 02 for a person who is not accident prone. The company knows that 20 percent of the population is accident prone. (@) What is the probability that a new policyholder will have an accident within 4 year of purchasing a policy? (© Suppose that a new policyholder has an ‘accident within a year of purchasing a policy. What is the probability that he or she is accident prone? [CBSE Term-2 SQP 2022]‘Ans. Let Ey =The policy holder is accident prone. z= Tho policy holder is not accident prone. E = The new policy holder has an accident within a year of purchasing a policy. 0 Pe eeyxH(§) «re9~H(E) 2 20,8, 80,2 40 * i00 * i0 (® By Bayes’ Theorem, Pee,)xP| E 3) 20,6 30010 280 i000 3 ie [CBSE Marking Scheme Term-2 SQP 2022] Explanation: Consider E; = Policy holder is prove to y= Policy holder is not prove ta accident Policy holder met with an accident in year of purchase, 22 Here, Pe)= 22.2 “ = oF 2080 8 PR) 1-29. 08 ©) 1-550 "00 "76 fE)-e fe) PR = PEE) « o£) + PCE) E) te 30 "10 1241628 7 100” 100" 25 (8 Here, wo need to find the probity of 2) e Sn by Baye theorrn, } x PE) PE) B _ 2x2 * 100x7 A\ caution Read the case corefily, to get on idea about the probabiltes given and what is naeded to be calculated to get the desired recut: 19. On a Diwat’s night, four members of @ family plan to play a cards' game. Head of the family is toactas an intiotor of the game He draws 0 card at random from o welishutfled deck of 52 cards and noted the outcome and thereafter deck is reshuffled without replacing the card. ‘Another card is then drawn from the deck by member (@) Whet is the probability thet ‘both the cards are ofthe same suit”? (© @wihat is the probability that ‘one card is an ace and the other is a black queen’? ‘Ans. (A) P(both the cards ore ofthe same suit) = Plboth ore spades) + PIboth are ciamonds) + P(both are hearts) + P{both cre cubs) Be, Me, Be, By We, * 8c, * 3c, * Be, 14 wi VERY SHORT ANSWER Type Questions (VSA) [1 mark] 20. @A box has 5 blue and 4 red balls. One ball is drawn at random and net replaced. Its colour is also not noted. Then, ancther ball is drawn at random. Whats the probability of second ball being blue? [NCERT Exemplar]24. Two dice are thrown ‘nr times in succession. What is the probability of obtaining a double teotlecst once? ‘An. Probobiity of getting double sixin two dice eaete 3*6 "36 Sa probabity of not getting double sx 138 436736 s. Required probability = 1 (Probability of not getting double six)” “(3 38 22. The probebilty distribution of @ random variable Kis given below: x [-s|-4|-3]-2|-1| 0 [P00 P 2 3p 4p Se 7 8». 8p 10p t3p 126, Then, find the value ofp, t1]2[3]4[s ‘Ans. +: Sum of probobilty distribution = 1 = p+ 2p+3p+4p+ Sp+ 7p +80 +99 +10p+11p+12p=1 > 2p 21 1 > ped 1 Henee, the value ofpis 2. 23. An urn contains 6 red and 3 black balls. Two balls are randomly drown, Let X represents the number of black balls, What are the possible values ofX? Ans Here from the given urn we oe crowing 2 bal So,the poet values ofX ar 0,12. 24, Git Ey, Ey — Ep constitute 0 partition of sample space § end A is any event of non zero probobity, then what le the value of PIA? SHORT ANSWER Type-! Questions (SA-I) [2 marks] 25. Bhavani is going to play a game of chess against o of four opponents in an intercollege sports ‘competition. Each opponent is equally likely to be paired against her. The table below shows the ‘chances of Bhavani losing, when paired against each opponent. Opponent Opponent 1 Opponent 2 Opponent 3 Opponent 4 Bhavani's chances 12% 60x x% 24%, of losing If the probability that Bhavani loses the game that day 5 find the probability for Bhavani to be losing the game when paired against Opponent 3. Show your steps, ‘Ans, Let E;, . E.£4 and A be the events defined as follows: Ey = Bhavan! is poired against opponent 2. E; = Bhavani is poired against opponent 2. Ey = Bhavani is poired against opponent 3. E, = Bhavani is poired against opponent 4, ‘A = Bhavani lasses the game, Then, P(Es) = PE) 1 = PE) = PCE) = 3 Also, P(AJE;) = 12% = z PIAIE) = 60x = £2. 100 PIA) mae 84 Pine) = 84% = 28 Now, using theorem of total probability, we have. POA) = PEL) PAIEs) + P(E2) P(AIE2) + PIE,) POAIEs) + PIE) PIAIES) 2, 4,12,1, 60,1, = 3° a*400*s"100* a" 00 hot y noes 1 = gy 2+ 04x88)> 2008156+x > nds Hence, the probabllty for Bhavani losing the ‘game against opponent 3 is 44%, 26. Find the probability distribution of X, the umber of heads in a simultaneous toss of ‘wo coins, [cese 2019] ‘Ans. When we toss two coins simultaneously, we may get 0 head, 1 head or 2 heads ‘Then, possible values of X are 0, 1,2. Now, PO =0) = P(getting ne head) 2 =P =F P(X 4) = P(getting one head) = PUHT or TH) a2ah aa P(X = 2) = P(getting two heads) = PH) = + +: Probability distribution is o[i]2 1 [aa ro | a | 2 | 4 27. The random variable X has a probability istribution P(X) of the following form, where'K’is some number. k, X20 2k, Xd eS ‘3k, HX =2 0, otherwise Find the volue of k. (CBSE 2019) Ans. Moe the given information in tabular form x | 0 | 1 | 2 |omerwise | POO | k | 2 | 3k o | Since, sum ofall probabilities s 1 EPK x)= 1 SPK=0)+ Pe 1)4+ PK = 2) = 1 = ks 2k 3k = Gent > kad 3 28, For the following probability distribution, determine meon of the random variable X. x] 2[3]« | ro 02 as | oa | 29. @From a lot of 15 bulbs which include 5 defectives, a sample of 2 bulbs is drawn at random (without replacement). Find the Probability distribution of the number of defective bulbs, 30. bag contains 4 white ond 5 black balls. ‘Another bag contains 9 white and 7 black balls. A ball ls transferred from the first bag to the second bag and then a ball Is drawn from the second bag. Find the probability ‘that the ball drawn is white, INCERT Exemplar] ‘Ans. Let, Ey be the event that ball transferred from the first bag is white and E, be the event that ‘the ball transforred from the first bag is black. ‘And E be the event that ball drawn from the ‘second bag is white. 10 PEELED) = 35 and PEED) & v 4 s And POE) = 5 ond PED) = 2 PAE) = PIE) POEIED) + PEAPEIES) 153 153-9 34. A bog contains 1 red and 3 white balls. Find the probability distribution of the number of ted bollsif2 balls are drawn atrandom from the bag one-by-one without replacement. [CBSE Term-2 SQP 2022] ‘Ans. Let X be the random variable defined as the number of red bolls Then X= 0,1 PX =O) orate Bebe Sad Probobitty Distrbutidn Tobie: > x | 0] 4 Poo a a i | 3 [CBSE Marking Scheme Term-2 SQP 2022] Explanation: Total number of balle in the bag=4 ‘Now, 2 balls are drown from the bag one by one without replacement. Let. X be the random variables defined os the numberof red ballsThen, x= 3,2,4 pee)» Sedat 13,342 pee) = Bd 3d Sot 2 Probebity cstibution is wo [2 Po] 1 | a 7 2 AY Caution ~ As theres nly 1 red bell i the bog. son 2 crows we con get ony red bal ot maximum. 32. @suppose youhave two coins which appear idential in your pocket You know that, one is fal and one le two-headed. I you take fone out, toss it ond get a head, what fs the probability that it was a fair coin? INCERT Exernptor] ‘33. Suppose 10,000 tickets are sold in a lottery ‘each for 21. First prize is of £3000 and second prize is of £2000. There are three third prizes ‘of %500 each. If you buy one ticket, then ‘what Is your expectation? [NCERT Exemplar] ‘Ans, Let X be a random variable forthe prize x_| 0 | s00 | 2000 | 3000 | 99953 1 1 T0000 10000 | 70000 | 70000 We know, E00) = EXPO) = 0 2895. 3 = FOO = oo00 * 3.30001 T0000 T0005 + 2000x: ‘= 2800+2000+3000 10000 6500 [0000 = 2085, LQ caution Here we wil use the formula fer expectation EO) = EXPO to get the desired result. 34. The probability distribution of a discrete random variable X is given as under: x)a]2| 4 | 2a] 3a] 5a a fa) so [a] a|a po 2/2) 3 | 4) 2 O a/s 3 | io | 2 2 Calculate the value of A, IFEX) = 2.94 INCERT Exemplar] ‘Ans. We have, 2XPQ0) 1 ad 1 sted sack sands ned 1 1 + the «Sand 2 2,2,22, 28,38, 5A 2'5'25 "10's "25 1 884264 0 Since, £09 = XP) > 2940 99264 50 > 26A=50« 294-69 Hence, the value of A is 3. SHORT ANSWER Type-!| Questions (SA-II) [3 marks] 35. Abag A contains 4 black and 6 red balls and bag B contains 7 black and 3 red balls. A die is thrown. If 1 or 2 appears on it, then bag Ais choosen, otherwise bag B. If two balls ‘are drawn at random (without replacement) from the selected bag, find the probability of ‘one of them being red and another black. [CBSE 2015] Ans. Probobilty ofcheosing bag A= Ps) = 2 4 Probability of choosing bag 8 = P() = 2 Let E be the event of drawing a red and a black balls,: off) ee * a) * ®, £) 73 ond °(£) he «Required probability =PO Bi ior * “tor xl 2xéi ~ 8M 2 ast as as 36. There are two bags, one of which contains 3 black and 4 white balls, while the other contains 4 black and 3 white balls. A die Is thrown. If it shows up 1 or 3, a ball is taken from the first bag, but if it shows up any ‘ther number, a ball is chosen from the ‘second bag. Find the probability of choosing ‘black ball. ‘Ans. Consider, E: as an event of choosing first bag. or ie showing up 1 or 3. 28 Pe) = 22d ‘Consider E> as en evant of chosing second bag, cr die showing up 2,4, 5 or 6. 402 Pen = 303 end A~ Event thot a black bolls down, Then, PIED = 2 and POAIES) 2. Required probobilty =P ve ef ere nel & = eae(2) rene £) 37. Three defective bulbs are mixed up with 7 good ones. 3 bulbs are drawn at random. Find the probobiltydistibutlon of defective ‘Ans. Given, number of defective bulbs = 3 ond umber of good bulbs = 7 «: Total number of bulbs = 3+7 = 10 Let X denotes the number of defective bulbs. ‘Then, X takes the value 0 1,2,3. So, | POX= 0) = P(getting 0 defective bulbs) = 2yx"Cy io, Tx6x5 = Pana TOx9x8 ‘Bx2x1 ~ 2x6x5 7 10x9x6 ~ 24 P(K= 1)=P(gerting 1 defective bulb) 3, x'¢, 1c, ay ZX8 wee IeDxd Be7x63 _ 21 10x9x8 "40 P(X = 2)= Pigetting 2 defective bulbs) 3c x7 we, 227 ioxsxe 3x2x1 3x2x7x3 7 10x9x8 ~ 40 P0k= 3) Pigeting 3 defective bubs) 305 x7Cy “re? 14 Txaxe nar) peed 2 “TOx9x8 ~ 120 4. The probebity ditrbuton table le os follows: [Leta [ata zlafazfa | Po | ae | 40 | a0 | azo 38. Three persons A, B and C apply for a job of ‘manager in private company. Chances of their selection (A, 8, C) are in the ratio 1:2:4, The probobilities that A, B and Can Introduce changes to improve profits of the ‘company are 0.8, 0.5 and 0.3 respectively.If the changes does not take place, find the probability that lt Is due to the appointment ofc. [CBSE 2016] ‘Ans. Let E be the event to improve profits of the company 1 Probobilty of selection of A PA) = <> Probability of selection of 8, PB) = Probability of selection of ,P(C) = 7 Probability that A does not introduce changes, POA) =1-08=02 Probability that B does net introduce changes, PéEie) =1-05=05 Probability that C does not introduce changes, PEC) =1-03=07 So, required probabilty = P(CE) . etic) P(A)P(EIA) + P(B)PCE|B) + P(C)P(EIC) 4 . $x07 pe T 2 a $x02+2x05+3x07 39. Bin a shop X, 20 tins of ghee of type A and 40 ins of ghee of type B which look alike, are kept for sale. While in shop Y, similar 50 tins ofghee oftype A.and 80 tins of ghee of type B are there. One tin of ghee is purchased from one ofthe randomly selected shop and is found tobe of type B. Find the probability that it is purchased from shop Y.[CBSE 2020] 40. Let X denote the number of colleges where you will apply after your result and P(X = 2) denotes your probability of getting ‘admission in x number of colleges. Its given that ex, ifx= 00rd 2x, if = 2 P= = Ts—x), fx = 30rd 9, itx>4 where kis a positive constant. Find the value of k. Algo, find the probability that you will get admission in: (A) exactly one college (@) atmost 2 colleges (€) atleast 2 colleges ‘Ans. The probobiity distribution of Kis i col ise [ia [eels po | o | k | ae | me ok The given dietibution i @ probability disvibition [ease 2016) 5 pret 0 +ks dks Aer kad = Beat 2 k= 120325 a (A) Pigetting admission in exactly one college) =P =1)=k=0125 @ Pigetting admission in atmost 2 colleges) =PK52) =PK=0)+ PKI) +PK=2) =O +k 4 dem Skea 5 «0125 =0625 (© Plgerting adrrission in atleast 2 colleges) =PK22) =PK=2)+PK=3)+PK= 4) = 44 2k + ke Tex 7 «0125 =0275 44. A class has 15 students whose ages are 14, 17, 15, 14, 21, 17, 19, 20, 16, 16, 2, 17, 16, 419° and 20 years. One student is selected Jn such a manner that each has the same chance of being chosen and the age X of the selected student is recorded. What is the probability dictribution of the random variable X? Find the mean of X. [CBSE 2014] ‘Ans. Here, the ages ofthe given 15 students ore 14, 47,15, 14, 21,17, 19, 20, 16,18, 20,17, 16,19 ‘and 20 years. :: Required probability distribution of Kis x | a4) as |16]17/38/ 19 | 20 | 21 2 | | ef | 2 BE 15 15 /is|35|18 | is) 15) 15 Now. Mean, X = 2X09 2s soe’ eee een = 142415 h 16x2 417% 1 15 1Sxq5 +16 15 18 1 ype pony ae sex +19x 2420x2425= 4 8+15+32+51+18+38+60+2) = 283 75 42. @there are four cards numbered 1, 3, 5 and 7, one number on one card. Two cards are drown at random without replacement. Let X denote the sum of the numbers on the two ‘drawn cards. Find the mean of K. LONG ANSWER Type Questions (LA) [4 & Smears] 43. Three bags contain a number of red and white balls as follows: bag 1:3 red balls, bag 2: 2 red balls and 1 white ball ‘and bag 3:3 white balls ‘The probability that bag / will be chosen and abate salted om le whee, 3. What isthe probability that (A) a red ball will be selected? @) awhite balls selected? INCERT Exemplar] Ans, Let E:, Ez and Es be the events that bag 1, 2 ‘ond 3, respectively are selected and o boll is choosen fromit. Pe) 2, £ 1 PIE) = 2. PeE 5 (A) Consider, E os on event thot red ball Is selected. Then, probobilty of selection of rred ball is: PQ) = POE). PE) + PE). PE) + PIES. PEED a) P(G) = PE:) P(GYE;) + PIE2) P(GYED) +PERIPCGIED) ZX Caution Here, we could directly get the probability of getting ‘hie bol by applying formula PYG) = 1 = FEL 44. Two numbers are selected at random (without replacement) from the first six positive Integers. Let X denote the larger ‘of the two numbers obtained. Find the probability distribution of the random variable X and hence find the meon of the distribution. (case 2014] ‘Ans. Fist si postive integers ore 1,2, 3,4, 5,6. If two numbers ore selected at random from ‘above six numbers then sample space Is given by = ((1.24(1,3).4,4).(1,54(1,0)2.202.9)(2.4), 2.5)2,6,0,2,0,2.0,4,6,5.G,9, 4.144. 2..4.3). 4 9,4.0).5,9)6,2, .3.6.4).6.6) 6 2). 2,63, 6.4, 65) =n(9)=30 Now, X is @ random variable which denotes lorger of the two numbers, s0 ft can toke values 2,3.4,5.0r6. -. Required probability distribution is given as PX = 2) = Probabilty of geting (2,2) or (2.1) wee “40 POX = 3) = Probability of getting (1, 2) or (2,3) @.)0r@,2) ot Er) PO = 4) = Probability of geting (1, 4) or (2, 4) (oF (2,4) or (4,1) or 4,2) or 4,3) 30 P(X = 5) = Probability of getting (1, 5) or (2, 5) ‘or (3, 5) of (4,5) or (5,1) or (5,2) or (5, 3) or 64)PK = 0) = Probebilty of getting (1,6) or(2,6) or (or (4,6) oF 5,6) or 6,1) or 6,2) oF (6,3) oF (6.4) oF (6,5) 1 a5 . The probability distribution table is: x|2[3]4|sle wo] [3/8/82 = EQK) = EXP(X) 2 hae pax S458 46512 a 2xdsaxd sax hesx® s6x22 - 30, 3 30° ** 30 s 30 +8% 55 1 = gplt+ 12424440460) MO 3073 45. @Find the probability distribution of the imendum of the bo scores obtalned when 4 die Is thrown twice. Determine also the ‘mean of the distribution. [NCERT Exemplar] 4G. A letter is known to have come elther from “TATA NAGAR’ or from ‘CALCUTTA. On the envelope, just two consecutive letters TA ‘re visible. What is the probability that the letter came from TATA NAGAR? ‘Ans. Let E; be the event that letter is from "TATA. NAGAR’ and €; be the event that letter is from "CALCUTTA. Alaa, let E be the event that on the ‘envelope, two consecutive letters are TA. Now, PIE) = $ ond Pres) = 4 Nowy two consecutive letters on TATA NAGAR ‘= {TA, AT, TA, AN, NA, AG, GA, AR} 2. Probability of geting TA from TATA NAGAR = PEIED =o 8 Similarly, two consecutive letters on CALCUTTA = {CA.AL.LG, CU, UT.TT, TA <. Probability of geting TA fromm CALCUTTA = PELE) 1 7 Required probability = P(Es/E) + By baye's theorem PE PEE) PEE) = BE XEIE)+PE,)PEIED 47. GA shopkeeper sels thre types of flower seeds Ay, Az ond Ay, They ore sold 0 0 tmictre, where the proportions are 44:2 respectively. The germination rates of the three type ofseede are 45%, 60% and 35%. Cleats the probebilty {@ete rondomly chosen seed to germinate; {© that wil not germinate glven thatthe teediboftupe Ag (6) thet le egpe A glan thet a randomly homsreond does pot gurrinatn INCERT Exemplar] 48.A manufacturer has three machine ‘operators A, B and C. The first operator A Produces 1% of defective items, whereas the other two operators 8 and C produces 5% ‘ond 7% defective Items respectively. Ais on the job for 50% of the time, Bis on the job 30% of time and C on the job for 20% of the time. All the items are put into one stockpile ‘and then one item is chosen at random from this and is found to be defective. What isthe probability that It was produced by A? [CBSE 2019] ‘Ans. Consider, E; : The tem le manufactured by operator A. Ep: The item Is manufactured by operator B, Ey: The item ls manufactured by operator C. E: The item is defective. 505 303 PE) = a tp PO in ae 202 PE) = 00 "a0 1 5 Also EIEN) = <5 PUIED = 375. z PEIE) = 335Now, probebility that Item is produced by ‘operator A given that it is defective = P(E. +. By Bayes’ theorem PEI . PCE,)PIE| PIE) TE) + PEPE 1.) + PESMETED Big 10* 700 Bigg Bi 30700 *10* 700 = rissa s 36 49. @oF the sudents In a college, eis known thot 60% reside In hostel and 40% are day tcholars (not residing In hostel) Previous ear results report thet 20% of all students who reside in hostel ettoln A grade and 20% of day echolos ota A grode In thelr tmrtol exriinode. At Ur and of se, poor ‘one student is chosen at random from the college ond he has an A-grede, What Ie the probabllty thet the student isa hoster? 50. A man is known to speak truth 3 out of 7 times. He throws a die and reports that itis 5.Find the probability that itis actually 5. ‘Ans. Let A.8 and C be the following events. ‘A: Man speaks truth. ‘Man does not speak truth. C:Man reports that itis 5. robabilty of getting Son 1 throwing adles? 2 6 Now, require prebabity = PAC) > By Bayer’ theorem, PRAIPLCI PAID = Faye) + PEPE) 3Now, probability that item is produced by 50. A man Is known to speak truth 3 out of 7 ‘operator A given that it is defective = P(EIE). times. He throws a die and reports that it is 216 floyat hecror: 5. Find the probability that tis actualy 5. PEI Ans. Let &.B and Che the following events. . PLE)PIELE) PIE, PETE) + PCE)PEEIE,)+ PES)ETE) cand, (cha) = 1~ 49. Gof the students in a college, it i known ‘that 60% reside in hostel and 40% ore day Now, required probability = PAIC) ‘Scholors (not residing in hostel). Previous +. By Bayes’ theorem, i PCA)P(CIA) tear results report that 30% of all students Pri = ———PLAIP(CA)_ who reside in hostel attain A grade and PLA)PCGIA) + PIE) P(CIB) 20% of day scholars attain A grade in their ‘annual exomination. At the end of the year, fone student is chosen at random from the college and he has an A-grade. What Is the probability that the student is « hostlier?SHORT ANSWER Type-! Questions (SA-I) [2 mans] 41. Adie, whose faces are marked 1, 2,3 in red and 4, 5, 6in green, is tossed. Let A be the event “number ‘obtained Is even” and B be the event “number obtained Is red”. Find If A and B are independent. ‘events, Ans.| | 40 mun obtain! do asin 0 mare id ed few ojos PA) © 36 rfa)-2+ Eg a “{ Are e-umbsn surging So sent ped ney | at. a - = jee a j mer rmmrey Mews mang A anal B eek nipertinh tute ——_ NN [CBSE Topper 2017] 2. A black and a red die are rolled together. Find the conditional probability of obtaining the sum 8, ‘given that the red die reculted In a number less than 4. Ans. |_| AM § “uur sof westertuty ans sum B hes LOGE 208, IG BIO VY nd, P= “Rune that nd did uwebt S19 a Rumbas #han 4.” fs flung (9) dd 4d (UA) 68) Cort) (9) (38) (BA) O09) (5.8) GN) PCR/e) = BEEN) ee meene) a PCF CC tine = {l6ayt3)} CA mene) = & 4 ntry= Ak x % Phe) = 2 Ed Te | % [CBSE Topper 2018) 3. The random veriable X has a probability distribution P(X) of the following form, where ‘k’ is some number. ky ifx20 2k, ifx = 4 3k, fx = 2 0, otherwise PK =x) = Determine the value of .Ans. ap htt te tute hat vere glut shes 2M, 5006” tes unt shad wre Jolt dtoaue 44 a fond A=” Mund thnk sre gl ge exaitty ns dal” e PtE) = a o Mey Bad 3 oF P(Meb= 2, eM = 8 wow, 004A) = pied etfs) _ ere) -eCPle) + POE: PC M/E) ug x (tA) ax es erty) = Pefirn) 6. Two Xder Ans.) hat Xadenstt tnd SaaS ee ae [CBSE Topper 2018) ‘pumbers ore selected at random (without replacement) from the first five positive integers. Let note the larger of the two numbers obtained. Find the mean of X. a stam _yuurdoend —____ a os o cana 3 w cal _ 1 [Fo i er ee = ae SPfnt_= Ak) 4 Bea 7 th + ey = (Se aa eo 10 bio 16 err wo © te [CBSE Topper 2018)SHORT ANSWER Typ: [3 marks] 4. There are 4 cards numbered 1, 3, 5 and 7, one number on one card. Two cards are drawn at random ‘without replacement. Let X denote the sum of the numbers on the two drawn cards. Find the mean ox fxr rom rea).b9) | ax Bolgtes Perey 1 om) |e EPA BS 3 “hten.t5) sy Seek Mae gh °C GD,Ly) mae pres aries E penne “ = Bele gosta 3°33 = seusse a ae = [CBSE Topper 2017] 5. Suppose a girl throws adie. If she gets 1 or 2, she tosses a coin three times and notes the number of tails. she gets 3, 4, 5 or 6, she tosses a coin once and notes whether a ‘head’ or ‘til is obtained . If she obtained exactly one ‘tail, what Is the probability that che threw 3, 4, 5 or 6 with the die?