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Graded Assignment 2� Pumper's

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1 de 4 17/12/2022 9:23
Week 2 Graded Assignment | Week 2: Forecasting I - Time Series Analysis and Exponential Smoothi... https://learning.edx.org/course/course-v1:MITx+CTL.SC1x+2T2019/block-v1:MITx+CTL.SC1x+...

Homework fecha límite Aug 7, 2019 10�00 �05 Completado

Graded Assignment 2� Pumper's

Pumper's is a manufacturer of high-end specialty equipment for submersible pumps.  They
produce parts that are sent to the original equipment manufacturers �OEMs) for manufacturing
new pumps.  They face a continuing challenge of trying to forecast demand for their products. 
The demand for one part in particular, PG�288, was highlighted as needing to be examined.

Part 1
0.4/0.4 puntos (calificado)
You can download the spreadsheet with the recent demand data for PG�288 in the linked file
here.

It is always helpful to take summary statistics and, if possible, chart or plot the historical data
to identify any demand patterns. The coefficient of variation �CV� gives us an indication of the
volatility of the demand.

What is the coefficient of variation of the demand?

Hint: Use the STDEV.S function to calculate the standard deviation of this sample.
Give your answer with at least four decimals.

0.0751 

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Part 2
0.4/0.4 puntos (calificado)
What is the forecast for demand in time period 15 using a Naive model?
Give your answer with one decimal.

1368 

What is the forecast for demand in time period 15 using a Cumulative model?
Give your answer with one decimal.

1232.9 

What is the forecast for demand in time period 15 using a 2 Period Moving Average model?
Give your answer with one decimal.

1348.5 

What is the forecast for demand in time period 15 using a 4 Period Moving Average model?
Give your answer with one decimal.

2 de 4 17/12/2022 9:23
Week 2 Graded Assignment | Week 2: Forecasting I - Time Series Analysis and Exponential Smoothi... https://learning.edx.org/course/course-v1:MITx+CTL.SC1x+2T2019/block-v1:MITx+CTL.SC1x+...

Give your answer with one decimal.

1324.8 

Enviar Ha realizado 1 de 2 intentos

Part 3
0.8/0.8 puntos (calificado)
Create next period forecasts for the data for time periods 1 through 14 using the Naive,
Cumulative, 2 Period Moving Average, and 4 Period Moving Average models.

What is the MAPE for the next period Naive model?

Give your answer not as percentage but as decimal, with at least four decimals. So, for example for a MAPE of 12.34%,
enter 0.1234.

0.0581 

What is the MAPE for the next period Cumulative model?

Give your answer not as percentage but as decimal, with at least four decimals. So, for example for a MAPE of 12.34%,
enter 0.1234.

0.0653 

What is the MAPE for the next period 2 Period Moving Average model?
Give your answer not as percentage but as decimal, with at least four decimals. So, for example for a MAPE of 12.34%,
enter 0.1234.

0.0486 Anterior  Siguiente

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What is the MAPE for the next period 4 Period Moving Average model?
Give your answer not as percentage but as decimal, with at least four decimals. So, for example for a MAPE of 12.34%,
enter 0.1234.

edX0.0404 
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Part 4
0.4/0.4 puntos (calificado)
Suppose that you believe that the demand has a positive trend. You think that sales will be
increasing per time period going forward.

Assuming there is a trend in the demand, which forecasting model is most appropriate to use?

Select the best answer

3 de 4 17/12/2022 9:23
Week 2 Graded Assignment | Week 2: Forecasting I - Time Series Analysis and Exponential Smoothi... https://learning.edx.org/course/course-v1:MITx+CTL.SC1x+2T2019/block-v1:MITx+CTL.SC1x+...

Cumulative Model

Naive Model

2 Period Moving Average

4 Period Moving Average

Moving Average for more than 4 periods

None of the above

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