Professional Documents
Culture Documents
NPRA Final Presentation
NPRA Final Presentation
Co-Authors:
Cesar Malpica – Reliability Specialist
Michele Leccese – Reliability and Risk Consultant
Nage Moumar – Materials and Inventory Specialist
Integral Reliability
Asset Management
Business Fundamental Objectives
2007 Reliability & Maintenance Conference
FACILITATOR
Methodology Advisor
OPERATOR MAINTAINER
Experts on System Experts on System and
and Equipment Equipment Maintenance
Operability and Repairs
FAILURES DATABASE
PROPER SPARE
FOR INFANT MORTALITY STAGE
PREVENTIVE
MAINTENANCE
RELIABILITY AND
ANALYSIS
OPERATIONS
AND APPROVALS
FOR ANALYSIS
SPARES RECEIVED
PO PLACEMENT
AT WAREHOUSE
4
Frecuency Spare 3 inventory
Spare Parts 3
Frecuency Spare 4
Frecuency Spare 5
(MTBF) 2
1
RISK
2. frequency of
0 Use Quantity
1 2 3 4 5 6
estimation
• Stochastic Demand
– Redundancy Scheme
– Population
– Rate of Demand (from partners, bibliography, other facilities)
– Impact on Operations / Risk
– Delivery Time
– Premium Possibility + Costs Associated
– Probability of successful Repair @ home / Time to Repair
– Material Cost
– Administration Cost
– Return of Investment
– Obsolescence
Criticality Analysis
1 3 0 80 55 0
2 5 18 99 146 17
3 2 5 90 135 5
Probability Ranking
4 9 128 1004 700 146
E D C B A
Consequence Ranking
YES
NO Safety or
Environment
YES
NO Loss of
Production
YES
NO Only Maint.
Costs
YES
(RCM)
CONDITION BASED
available?
CONDITION BASED CONDITION BASED CONDITION BASED
FMEA
Maintenance
Plan
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Main
Company System Family Equipment Equipment OREDA Failure
System Equipment System Family Equipment Family Function Functional Failure Failure Mode Severity Root Cause
Area Code Tag Description Code Pattern
Tag
Slide Valve
To elevate the pressure of
Screw failure
low pressure gas and to It doesn't elevate the low
MPP Screw Compressor 345 Rotational Gas Screw Compressor High vibration VIB C (Compressor Random/Age
send it to the Amina Unit of pressure's gas pressure.
Compressor discharge
the Plant MPP.
control)
Slide Valve
Compressor
2007 Reliability & Maintenance Conference
Rotational Gas Screw Compressor
To elevate the pressure of
low pressure gas and to
send it to the Amina Unit of
It doesn't elevate the low
pressure's gas pressure.
High vibration VIB C
failure
(Compressor
discharge
Random/Age
the Plant MPP.
control)
RELIABILITY
AVAILABILITY AND
RAM OSF RESULTS
MAINTAINABILITY
(RAM)
PFD’s, P&ID,Expert Opinion
Wells Production
Bayes
Bayes Information
Theorem Availability (A)
Evidence (Similar Production System)
,041
Generic Data (OREDA 2002)
Updated
EAGLE-II RP-10
CL-12 BYPASS
,021
NORTH
BS-14
Failure
PRODUCTION
PL-12
PL-23
GASLIFT ,000
BS-16 RP-7 RP-6 RP-5
and
BYPASS
PL-18 PL-15
EAGLE-I
BS-22
EAST GASLIFT
PRODUCTION GP-1 S484 RP-4 SOLDADO
BYPASS FIELD
Rates
BS238 S244
RP-3
PL-21
S248 PL-17
GASLIFT
BYPASS
CL-6
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
E-002
P-011
V-004
EA- 001
2007 Reliability & K-001
Maintenance Conference Downside
Upside
RELIABILITY
AVAILABILITY AND
MAINTAINABILITY
(RAM)
Start
1
SCHEDULED SCHEDULED SCHEDULED SCHEDULED
RESTORATION RESTORATION RESTORATION RESTORATION
2 REDESIGN
REDESIGN
ONLY JUSTIFIED
REDESIGN
3 RAM
3
44
5
PUMPING SYSTEM
Is the Spare
Inventory
Philosophy aligned
with Business
Expectations?
If spares are not
available when
needed, the loss of
OSF is accepted by
Owners &
Stakeholders?
Optimum Point
Impact, Risk and
Cost $/Yr
Risk
Costs
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1800
1600
ALLAOWS OBTAINING THE 1400
RELATION BETWEEN THE COST 1200
AND THE RISK OF THE 1000
,022 27
Uncertainty is
,015 18
addressed by
,007 9
,000
Mean = 13,41
0
running Monte
5,17 10,46 15,75
Certainty is 80,00% from 7,86 to 19,99
21,03 26,32 Carlo simulation
Forecast: URGENTE
with all potential
1.240 Trials
,027
Frequency Chart 1.212 Displayed
33
scenarios of
,020 24,75
reliability, risk,
,013 16,5
commercial and
,007 8,25
financial
,000
Mean = 11,68
0
parameters
2,04 7,72 13,40 19,08 24,76
Certainty is 80,00% from 6,01 to 18,37
Risk
Costs
5 6 7 8 9
Supply Logistic 95% Certainty
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Repair feasibility
IN COMPANY
LOW CRITICAL / BULK MATERIAL / CONSUMABLES
SUPPLIER
PARTS MANAGEMENT
CRITICAL / HICH TECH / OBSOLETE IN SHORT TIME
BY THIRDS
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000 RISK
800 COST
400
200
0
10 2 1 3 2 4 35 6
4 75 8 6 9 7 10 811 12
9 13
10 11 12
• Methodology
– Project Team´s Approach
▪ Lump Sum Contractor established an Upgraded Approach
▪ Around 45 K USD
▪ Around 7.7K items
TOTAL 7741
6%
41% 28%
25%
Amounts of Money to be optimized
No requiere Superior Optimo Inferior
$2,055,895
-$4,401,329
$2,300,535
$0
$2,055,895
Risk associated
-$4,401,329
to the cost of the
money and
$2,300,535 warehousing
$0
160,000,000
RISK TO BE
2. Approximately 40% of the 140,000,000 MITIGATED
100,000,000
but the amount on stock was 80,000,000
savings
2007 Reliability & Maintenance Conference
Practical Case;
Results
1. Reliability and Risk analysis include into the decision making process
possible impacts on business the can be avoided with the proposed
inventory definition strategy.
2. The use of reliability techniques and risk analysis since early stages of
projects provide both, the guarantee for savings and the avoidance of
expenditures for parts not needed (no cost benefit justification)
PROCESSES
PEOPLE
TECHNOLOGY