Auto and Auto Ancillary Industry

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March 2022

1
Opening up of the economy

2
Challenges under the hood
• GDP growth projected at 7.8% next fiscal, with risks tilted to the downside
– Hinges on infrastructure-led capex by government and stirring of private capital expenditure (capex)
– Private consumption remains the weak link owing to reduced direct fiscal policy support
• Upside to inflation likely to crimp monetary policy space
– Inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to average 5.4% next fiscal

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– Repo rate to rise 50-75 basis points (bps) next fiscal
– Benchmark 10-year government security (G-sec) yield seen rising to 7.1% by March 2023 – with an upside bias – given the
turning monetary policy cycle, high crude oil prices, and large borrowings by the government
• Risks multiplying, though India is on firmer ground
– Risks are shifting fast from Covid-19 to geopolitics, crude oil, and interest rate hikes in the US
o Our macroeconomic outlook is predicated on an average Brent crude price of $85-90 per barrel (bbl) in fiscal 2023. If it stays
higher, it will create risks to our growth, inflation and current account calls
o Surprises in the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate-hike schedule could create volatility in the forex markets
o Also, Covid-19 infection rates are down, but the pandemic has not been officially eradicated. So, the possibility of disruption of
economic activity due to further waves of infections cannot be ruled out
– India is better prepared than in 2013 to face external shocks due to its forex shield, but it is clearly not insulated

3
Global growth to moderate amid rising risks
GDP growth (%)

3.2 3.2
2.6
4.8
5.7 5.2
1.9
8.1 • Global growth expected to slow amid the
Russia-Ukraine strife. Europe to be hit

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US Eurozone
Japan the hardest
China
India
• Effect of rising energy prices is a spike in
inflation in the near term
World 7.8
2019World
- 2.8 • Economic impact of Covid-19 has reduced;
8.9 uneven recovery seen across AEs and EMs
2022:
2020 3.4
- -3.9
2021: 5.7 • Actions of the Fed will put pressure on EM
central banks to raise policy rates
2021E 2022F

E: Estimated; F: Forecast; AEs: Advanced economies; EMs: Emerging markets

Source: S&P Global (February 2022); India outlook is for fiscal year

4
Private consumption weak link in the demand story
PFCE growth trailing GDP growth Private consumption a laggard
10.0 8.9 FY22 over FY20 (%)
8.0 14.0
7.6
6.0 11.9
12.0
4.0
9.9
2.0 10.0
8.6
0.0

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8.0
-2.0
6.0
-4.0
-6.0 4.0
2.6
-8.0 1.8
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 2.0 1.2

0.0
Real PFCE growth (%) Real GDP growth (%) M X GFCE GFCF GDP PFCE

PFCE: Private final consumption expenditure; M: Imports; X: Exports; GFCE: Government final consumption expenditure; GFCF: Gross fixed capital formation
Source: National Statistical Office, CRISIL

• Economy is 1.8% above the pre-pandemic level (fiscal 2020) in the current fiscal

• While other demand-side drivers have recovered rapidly, private consumption expenditure growth is still subdued

5
Why is private consumption weak?
160.0

140.0
Tepid consumer sentiment
• The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) consumer
120.0
109.6 confidence survey for the current period
100.0 103.0 gives pessimistic vibes

• While one-year ahead outlook was in the

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80.0
63.7 optimistic zone, the third Covid-19 wave has again
60.0
led to some moderation
40.0
• MSMEs and smaller companies, which are labour-
20.0 intensive, have been hit harder by the pandemic
and have been slower to recover
0.0
Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21
Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-22
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
May-17

Nov-17

May-18

Nov-18

May-19

Nov-19

May-20

Nov-20

May-21

Nov-21
Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21
• High inflation continues to create headwinds;
urban poor hit harder (more about this in the
inflation segment)
Current Situation Index Future Expectations Index

MSMEs: Micro, small and medium enterprises

Source: RBI

6
Exposure to the Russia-Ukraine crisis
Low share in India’s trade (imports + exports) Direct impact
• Higher international commodity prices (energy, edible
oils, agricultural products, and metals)

1.1% 0.3% • Impact on India’s overall trade flows expected to be

lesser owing to low share of trade with Russia and
Ukraine

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Russia Ukraine • Top exports to both countries (pharmaceutical products)
are necessary goods, so unlikely to be impacted. Import
Top 3 items of India’s trade cost will rise owing to higher prices of crude (affecting
mineral fuel, fertiliser imports) and edible oils
Exports
Russia Ukraine • Rise in export insurance costs and global shipping rates
Pharmaceutical products Pharmaceutical products Indirect impact
Electrical machinery Electrical machinery
• External demand for exports may be affected as Europe
Boilers and mechanical appliances Oil seeds (India’s second-largest export destination) expected to
Imports be one of the hardest hit regions as growth slows down
Russia Ukraine
• Supply-chain disruptions: India’s major trading partners
Mineral fuels Animal or vegetable fats (US, Europe, China) have high import-dependency on
Pearls, semi/ precious stones Fertilisers Russia and Ukraine for select commodities
Project goods Inorganic chemicals
Note: Data based on 3-year average of fiscals 2019-2021
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, S&P Global (February 2022), CRISIL

8
Macroeconomic outlook
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21F FY22F FY23F

1 Real GDP growth (%) 6.8 6.5 3.7 -6.6 8.9* 7.8

2 Consumer price inflation (%) 3.6 3.4 4.8 6.2 5.5 5.4

3 CAD/ GDP (%) 1.8 2.1 0.9 -0.9 1.6 2.2

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4 Exchange rate (Rs/$, March) 65.0 69.5 74.4 72.8 76.5 77.5

5 Fiscal deficit/ GDP (%) 3.5 3.4 4.6 9.2 6.9^^ 6.4#

6 10-year G-sec yield (March-end) 7.6 7.5 6.2 6.2 6.9 7.1^

F: Forecast. *NSO second advance estimate. ^With upward risk, ^^RE, #BE
Source: NSO, RBI, CRISIL

9
Consumption-linked and construction sectors to drive revenues next fiscal
High base to restrict incremental growth for the commodities vertical during the year
Share% Verticals FY22 industry revenue as % of FY19 Industry revenue recovery in FY22 vs FY19 FY23 industry
FY22 revenue as %
Leading sectors Laggard sectors of FY22

Consumer Organised retailing (1.16x) Airline services (0.62x)

11% discretionary services
105% 122%
Media (0.95x) Hotels (0.72x)

Consumer Gems & jewellery (1.51x) RMG (0.85x)

20% 109% 114%

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discretionary products Tyres (1.18x) Two-wheelers (0.84x)

Construction (1.03x) 113%

10% Construction 104% Ceramic (1.15x) Real estate (1.06x)

Steel (1.49x) Petrochemicals (1.09x)

16% Commodities 136% Chlor Alkali (1.26x)
102%
Non-ferrous (1.48x)

Telecom (1.35x) Sugar (1.12x)

11% Consumer staple 127% 113%
Pharma domestic (1.32x) FMCG (1.2x)

5% Commercial-linked 101% Power generation (1.19x) Commercial Vehicle (0.75x)

Power transmission (1.18x)
110%
Power equipment (0.91x)

Pesticides (1.45x) RMG (1.05x) 109%

21% Exports 124% Pharma exports (1.34x) Gems & jewellery (1.02x)

Edible oil (1.52x) Packaging (1.2x) 98%

6% Others 135%
Pesticides domestic (1.34x) Home textiles (1.25x)
Note: Dotted line represent scale of 100%; Fiscal 2019 (pre-pandemic) level revenues are compared for recovery ; This analysis considers fiscal 2018 as the pre-pandemic year
Source: Industry, DGFT, CRISIL Research 10
Sales of entry-level cars and motorcycles under pressure
Premium segments have recovered relatively faster

Lower-priced variants underperformed premium variants Food and refreshments growth moderates on a high base

Volume growth rates y-o-y Revenue growth rates y-o-y

FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 9M FY22 FY20 FY21 9M FY22

Passenger vehicles

Fast moving consumer goods*

Up to 9% 3% (16)% (2)% 1%
Rs 10 lakh 4% 13% 7%

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Food &
refreshment Consumption pivoted
6% (2)% (17)% 0% 39%
More than towards food and
Rs 10 lakh Home 6% 2% 17% refreshments amid the
care pandemic, but the
momentum moderated
Beauty & later
Up to 11% 9% (19)% (16)% (41)% (2)% 4% 10%
Motorcycles

personal
Rs 70K
care

19% 5% (15)% (1)% (3)%

More than
Rs 70K

Very High growth

High growth
Up to 12% (4)% (26)% (27)% (31)%
Scooters

Rs 70K Moderate growth

Marginal de-growth
22% 1% (15)% (18)% (1)%
More than
Rs 70K De-growth

Note: *Revenue growth of a key FMCG player is considered

Source: SIAM, Company Reports, Industry Estimates, CRISIL Research

12
Large companies drive capacity addition in most sectors
Utilisation levels for PVs, TWs and tractors to be below previous peaks due to supply-chain constraints and muted recovery
(mn units) Passenger vehicles (%) (mn units) Two-wheelers (%) (mn units) Tractors (%)
7.0 80% 35 90% 1.4 90%

6.0 30 1.2
80% 80%
70%
5.0 25 1.0

20 70% 0.8 70%

4.0
60%
3.0 15 60% 0.6 60%

2.0 10 0.4
50%
50% 50%

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1.0 5 0.2

0.0 40% 0 40% 0.0 40%

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22E

FY23P

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22E

FY23P
FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22E

FY23P
Top 2 (LHS) Others (LHS) Utilisation (RHS) Top 3 (LHS) Others (LHS) Utilisation (RHS) Top 2 (LHS) Others (LHS) Utilisation (RHS)

Utilisation levels for infrastructure-linked companies have rebounded strongly, in line with economic recovery

(MT) Refining (%) (MT) Steel (%) (mn units) Commercial vehicles (%)
(MT) Cement (%)
300 110% 180 100% 1.6 80%
700 80%
160 1.4
250 100% 90% 600
140
70% 1.2 70%
90% 500
200 120 80%
1.0
80% 100 400
150 70% 60% 0.8 60%
70% 80
300
0.6
100 60 60%
60% 200
40 50% 0.4 50%
50 50%
50% 20 100 0.2

- 40% 0 40% 0 40% 0.0 40%

FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22E
FY23P
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22E
FY23P

FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22E
FY23P

FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22E
FY23P
Capacity (LHS) Utilisation (RHS) Large (LHS) Others (LHS) Utilisation (RHS) Top 2 (LHS) Others (LHS) Utilisation (RHS)
Large (LHS) Others (LHS) Utilisation (RHS)

Note: Utilisation levels are provided for industry in the coloured space; for CV, it’s for the top four players accounting for more than ~80% of volumes; CV-commercial vehicle; PV-passenger vehicle; TWs-Two-wheelers; MT-million
tonne Source: SIAM, TMA, Industry, CRISIL Research

15
Segmental shift
Higher segmental shift visible in Passenger vehicles and three-wheelers
PV 2W
100% 6% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 100% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
90% 90%
80% 25% 28% 28% 34% 80%
39%
70% 48%
70%
60% 63% 62% 64% 64% 66% 67%
60%
50%
50%
40%
69% 66% 66% 40%
30% 61% 57%
20% 48% 30%
10% 20% 33%
32% 32% 32% 30% 30%
0% 10%
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 (Apr- 0%
Feb) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 (Apr-Feb)
Passenger Cars Utility Vehicles(UVs) Vans Scooter/ Scooterettee Motorcycle/Step-Throughs Mopeds

CV 3W
100% 3% 4% 100%
14% 10% 9% 12%
90% 90% 21% 19% 18% 18%
27% 30% 30%
80% 80% 38%
36% 35% 26%
70% 36% 70%
60% 60%
50%
50%
40%
70% 40% 79% 81% 82% 82%
30% 62% 66% 70%
51% 55% 56% 30% 62%
20%
20%
10%
0% 10%
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 (apr- 0%
Dec) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 (Apr-Feb)
LCVs M&HCVs Buses Passenger Carrier Goods Carrier

Source: SIAM, CRISIL Research

Note: PV-Passenger vehicle, 2W- Two-wheeler, CV – Commercial vehicle, 3W – Three wheelers
Fuel mix
 25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
75%
85%
95%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%

105%
100%

0%
Jan-20 92% 7% Jan-20 94% 5%
Feb-20 91% 8% Feb-20 95% 5%
Mar-20 88% 11% Mar-20 96% 4%
Apr-20 88% 12% Apr-20 1% 91% 9%
May-20 100% 0% May-20 79% 0%
Jun-20 100% 0% Jun-20 89% 2%
Jul-20 100% 0% Jul-20 84% 4%
90% 1%1% 0%20%9%12%

Aug-20 100% 0% Aug-20 84% 5%

Sep-20 97% 3% Sep-20
Diesel

84% 6%
Oct-20 93% 5% Oct-20 85% 7%

Diesel
Nov-20 79% 12% Nov-20 86% 7%
Dec-20 86% 13%
Petrol

Dec-20 85% 6%

Source: MoRTH, CRISIL Research

Jan-21 75% 20% Jan-21 82% 6%
11%9%8%8%9%8%

Electic
Feb-21 74% 5%
Feb-21 79% 8%
CNG

Mar-21 86% 5%
Mar-21 77% 9%
Apr-21 81% 3%

CNG
Apr-21 76% 10%
May-21 80% 1%
May-21 82% 8%
Jun-21 81% 11%
Others

Jun-21 78% 11%

4%4%5%4%2%4%

Jul-21 78% 17%

Jul-21 77% 14%
9%9%9%8%7%8%

Aug-21 86% 4%
Fuel mix of vehicle registrations for Buses

Aug-21 73% 16%

Sep-21 83% 7%
Sep-21 68% 20%
8%10%

Oct-21 82% 8%
Oct-21 66% 19%
12%

Nov-21 79% 16%

Nov-21 68% 19%
Fuel mix of vehicle registrations for 0 - 7.5T Goods segment

11%

Dec-21 70% 14%

Jan-22 80% 11% Dec-21 70% 17%
Feb-22 70% 21% Jan-22 71% 18%
Feb-22 72% 16%
10%9%9%

10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%

0%

Jan-20 86% 14%

Feb-20 88% 12%
Mar-20 89% 11%
Apr-20 77% 23%
May-20 97% 3%
Jun-20 97% 3%
Jul-20 86% 14%
Aug-20 89% 11%
Sep-20 85% 15%
Oct-20 82% 18%
Nov-20 78% 22%
Dec-20 78% 22%
Diesel

Jan-21 74% 26%

Trend of CV fuel mix based on Vehicle registrations

Feb-21 78% 22%

CNG

Mar-21 77% 23%

Apr-21 76% 24%
May-21 83% 17%
Jun-21 72% 28%
Jul-21 70% 30%
Aug-21 62% 38%
Sep-21 58% 42%
Oct-21 56% 44%
Nov-21 51% 49%
Fuel mix of vehicle registrations for 7.5T-12T Goods segment

Dec-21 50% 50%

Jan-22 58% 42%
20

Feb-22 62% 38%

 10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%

100%
100%

0%
0%
Jan-20 50% 30% Jan-20 100%
Feb-20 52% 28% Feb-20 100%
Mar-20 63% 20% Mar-20 100%
Apr-20 64% 26% Apr-20 100%
May-20 47% 15%

3%
May-20 100%
Jun-20 53% 25% Jun-20 100%
Jul-20 58% 23% Jul-20 100%
Aug-20 59% 22% Aug-20 100%

Diesel
Sep-20 59% 19% Sep-20 100%
Oct-20 57% 23%
Diesel

Oct-20 100%
Nov-20 56% 26%

Petrol
Nov-20 100%
Dec-20 56% 27%

1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Dec-20 100%
Petrol

Source: MoRTH, CRISIL Research

Jan-21 55% 33%

CNG
Jan-21 100%
Feb-21 49% 40%
Feb-21 99%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Electric

Mar-21 48% 42%

1% 1% 2%
Mar-21 99%
1% 0%

Electric
Apr-21 47% 35%
Apr-21 99%
1% 0%

May-21 42% 37%

2% 2%
Others

May-21 100%
Jun-21 45% 41%

Others
Jun-21 100%
Jul-21 39% 45%
Jul-21 99%
Aug-21 34% 49%
Fuel mix of vehicle registrations for 3W
Fuel mix of vehicle registrations for 2W

Aug-21 99%
Sep-21 28% 57%
Sep-21 98%
Oct-21 25% 61%
Oct-21 98%
Nov-21 26% 59%
Nov-21 98%
Dec-21 25% 59%
Dec-21 98%
Jan-22 21% 58%
Jan-22 97%
Feb-22 21% 56%
3% 4% 5% 5% 4% 4% 6% 5% 5%

Feb-22 97%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3%

10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%

0%

Jan-20 29% 62%

Feb-20 29% 64%
Mar-20 29% 65%
Apr-20 38% 59%
0% 0% 0% 0%

May-20 12% 83%

Jun-20 14% 80%
Jul-20 16% 78%
Aug-20 16% 77%
Sep-20 16% 77%
Diesel

Oct-20 16% 77%

Nov-20 16% 77%
Petrol

Dec-20 16% 77%

Jan-21 16% 76%
CNG

Feb-21 17% 74%

Mar-21 18% 73%
Others

Apr-21 17% 76%

May-21 20% 70%
Electric

Jun-21 20% 73%

Jul-21 19% 71%
Fuel mix of vehicle registrations for PV

Aug-21 19% 71%

Sep-21 18% 74%
Oct-21 17% 76%
Nov-21 17% 76%
Dec-21 18% 74%
Jan-22 17% 73%
Trend of 2W, PV and 3W fuel mix based on Vehicle registrations

21

Feb-22 18% 69%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
8% 7% 6% 4% 4% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 9% 9% 7% 10% 7% 10% 9% 7% 7% 6% 7% 10%12%
Retail vs. Offtake
 Thousands

0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Apr 23
0
May 35
41
Jun 143
113
Jul 178
201
Aug 203
234
Sep 214
293

FY21
Oct 286
334
Nov 332
287
Dec 299
277
Jan 315
304
Retail
Retail vs off-take

Feb 285
309
PV

Source – MoRTH, SIAM, CRISIL Research

Mar 313
321
Offtake

Apr 232
286
May 96
103
Jun 205
255
Jul 296
264
Aug 288
232
Sep 264
160

FY22
Oct 254
226
Nov 269
216
Dec 272
219

Note: Retail numbers are estimated, Offtake numbers include Tata Motors sales
Jan 285
254
Feb 264
263

Millions
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5

Apr 0.4
0.0
May 0.2
0.3
Jun 0.9
1.0
Jul 1.0
1.3
Aug 1.1
1.6
Sep 1.2
1.8
FY21

Oct 1.2
2.1
Nov 1.7
1.6
Dec 1.6
1.1
Jan 1.3
1.4
Retail

Feb 1.2
1.4
2W

Mar 1.3
1.5
Apr 0.9
Offtake

1.0
May 0.4
0.4
Jun 0.9
1.1
Jul 1.1
1.3
Aug 1.0
1.2
Sep 1.1
1.5
FY 22

Oct 1.0
1.5
Nov 1.4
1.1
Dec 1.1
1.0
Jan 1.0
1.1
Feb 1.0
1.0
 -
100
150
200
300
350
400
450

250

50
170

Q1
152

161

Q2
202

FY18
198

Q3
221

238

Q4
282

229

Q1
230

213

Q2

Note: Retail numbers are estimated

257

FY19
229

Q3
236

Source – MoRTH, SIAM, CRISIL Research

232

Q4
284

Retail
Retail vs off-take

222

Q1
417
CV

194

Q2
167

Off-take
FY20
197

Q3
195

274

Q4
147

30

Q1
32

80

Q2
134

FY21
140

Q3
193

172
Q4
209

100
Q1

106

157
Q2

166
FY22

167
Q3

195

Thousands
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0

May-20 1.6
2.4
Jun-20 9.1
10.3
Jul-20 11.5
12.7
Aug-20 13.5
14.5
Sep-20 19.8
18.6
Oct-20 17.8
26.2
Nov-20 19.3
23.6
Dec-20 21.5
22.1
Jan-21 24.9
26.3
Retail

Feb-21 25.7
27.3
3W

Mar-21 28.7
31.9
Apr-21 16.8
Offtake

13.7
May-21 3.7
1.3
Jun-21 10.0
7.9
Jul-21 19.1
17.9
Aug-21 20.6
23.2
Sep-21 23.8
29.2
Oct-21 24.5
31.8
Nov-21 26.3
22.5
Dec-21 24.8
28.1
Jan-22 27.0
24.1
Feb-22 25.9
27.0
 PV industry continues to grapple for stock
Vehicle segment Normal inventory in days Current inventory levels*

Passenger Vehicles 25-30 5-10

Two Wheelers 30-35 35-40

Commercial Vehicles 25-35 ~30

Tractors 30-35 45-50

Three-wheeler 20-25 30-35

NOTE:* Inventory level as on end of Dec 2021, Inventory units have been calculated using last 12 months sales
Source: Industry, CRISIL Research
Opportunities & challenges in the medium term

• Chip supply

• Elevated Crude prices

• Improvement in economic scenario
• Rising commodity prices and unavailability of
• Revival of government capex cycle
automotive steel, CNG kits and cylinders
• Fiscal Deficit under control
• Global COVID19 concern
• Inflation in comfortable range
• Abnormal monsoon's and lower procurement by
• Improvement in liquidity scenario
GoI
• Resumption of private capex cycle (steel, cement and PLI linked sectors)
• Increased interest rates, funding challenges for

commercial and MSME segment

26
Forecast

27
Domestic automobiles forecast- FY23 and FY26
CAGR – FY21 to
Segment FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23P FY26P
FY26
(million units) Volume Volume Y-o-Y Growth Volume Y-o-Y Growth Volume Y-o-Y Growth Volume Growth(%)
Motorcycle 11.21 10.02 (11)% 8.9-9.1 (11)-(9)% 9.2-9.5 2-6% 12.1-12.3

Scooter 5.57 4.48 (20)% 3.9-4.0 (13)-(11)% 4.1-4.15 4-5% 6.1-6.3

3-5%
Mopeds 0.64 0.62 (3)% 0.48-0.50 (21)-(19)% 0.38-0.41 (21)-(15)% 0.3-0.5

Total 2W 17.42 15.12 (13)% 13.3-13.6 (12)-(10)% 13.7-14.1 2-5% 18.7-18.9

CAGR – FY21 to
Segment FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23P FY26P
FY26
(‘000 units) Volume Volume Y-o-Y Growth Volume Y-o-Y Growth Volume Y-o-Y Growth Volume Growth(%)
LCV 448 396 (12)% 445 11-13% 504 10-14% 689

MHCV 185 153 (17)% 215 40-41% 258 18-23% 317

13-15%
Buses 86 17 (77)% 30 75-77% 40 32-34% 76

Total CV 719 569 (21)% 690 21-23% 802 14-18% 1082

CAGR – FY21 to
FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23P FY26P
FY26
Segment
Volume Volume Y-o-Y Growth Volume Y-o-Y Growth Volume Y-o-Y Growth Volume Growth(%)

Total PV (million
2.77 2.71 (2)% 3.0-3.04 10-12% 3.3-3.4 9-11% 4.1-4.3 7-9%
units)
Total 3W (‘000 units) 637 216 (66)% 255-260 18-20% 377-382 46-48% 590-610 22-24%

Note: This are domestic sales

28
Source: CRISIL Research
Electrification
 TCO for PV, 2W and 3W
ICE PV Electric PV 8.0 7.2 ICE 2W Electric 2W

30.0 27.5 7.0

23.5 6.0 6.4

25.0 5.0
TCO per km

TCO per km
20.6 5.0
18.4 4.3
20.0 23.0 3.9
20.9 16.7 3.7
4.0
19.4
15.0 18.2 17.3
3.0 3.5
10.0 2.0 2.5
2.0
5.0 1.0 1.7

0.0 0.0
15000 18000 21000 24000 27000 5000 10000 15000 25000 35000

Kms

CNG 3W Electric 3W
18.0 16.5
16.0
16.8
14.0 EV penetration in sales FY25 FY30
12.0 10.2
10.0 8.0
3-wheelers ~30% >50%
8.0
6.0
9.2 6.3
5.6 2-wheelers ~12-15% >35%
6.6
4.0
4.6
Passenger vehicles ~3-5% ~20%
2.0 3.7
0.0
5000 10000 15000 25000 35000

30
Source: SIAM, CRISIL Research
Note: PV-Passenger vehicle, 2W- Two-wheeler, CV – Commercial vehicle, 3W – Three wheelers
Thank you
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