Investigating the Opportunities and Challenges of Bengal Delta for the

Implementation of Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100

Md. Masud Alam*, Ershad Shaik
Water Resources Planning Organization (WARPO)
WARPO Bhaban, 72 Green Road, Dhaka-1215

ABSTRACT
The Bengal Delta is situated between the foothills of the eastern Himalayas and the northern shores of the Bay
of Bengal. It has been for more than a millennium a major frontier region of the subcontinent, a gateway to the
Indian Ocean and an evolving resource hub. Therefore, it has flourished a multiple opportunities and besides
those benefits there are many challenges. By the approval of BDP 2100 it has turned into a new chapter for the
people. BDP 2100 is the combination of long-term strategies and subsequent interventions for ensuring long
term water and food security, economic growth and environmental sustainability while effectively reducing
vulnerability to natural disasters and building resilience to climate change and other delta challenges through
robust, adaptive and integrated strategies, and equitable water governance. The soil and water combination
makes Bangladeshi land highly fertile with multiple cropping opportunities. Bangladesh has wisely combined
this natural advantage with HYV seed-fertilizer irrigation technology to intensify land cultivation and expand
food production, primarily rice. IPCC -AR 5 and other studies describe: Rising Temperatures (1.4 -1.90C
increase by 2050, if extreme then 20C plus), Rainfall Variability (overall increase by 2030, but may decrease in
Eastern and southern areas), Increased Flooding (about 70% area is within 1m from Sea Level), Droughts
(mainly Agricultural Drought), River Erosion (50,000 households on avg. become homeless each year), Sea
Level Rise (SLR) and consequent Salinity Intrusion (by 2050 SLR may be up to 0.2 -1.0 m; salinity increase by
1ppt in 17.5% & by 5ppt in 24% area), Cyclones and Storm Surges (Frequency and category will increase
along with higher storm surges), Water Logging, Sedimentation, Trans-boundary Challenges. However, this
paper explores the challenges and opportunities of Bengal Delta for the implementation of BDP 2100.

Keywords: Bengal Delta, Opportunities, Blue Economy, Tourism, Challenges, Climate Change.

INTRODUCTION
The Bengal Delta is the largest delta in the world (Gupta, 2007). It built in the confluence of
three mighty Rivers- the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna make largest dynamic
delta of the world. The development of the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta that began some 125
million years ago (Ma) after the fragmentation of the Gondwanaland since the early
Cretaceous is still continuing. The history of the delta complex can be understood in terms of
Gondwanaland break-up, Indian plate movement, collision of the Indian plate with the
Burmese and Eurasian plate, development of the huge mountain range of the Himalayas,
development of the Ganges-Brahmaputra river system and sea level changes in several
historical periods and tectonic activities over millions of years.
The development of the delta complex started in the right passive margin of the Indian plate
when the rate of sedimentation was very slow. With the northward drifting of the Indian plate
and the collision with the Eurasian plate the delta complex received huge sediments that
evolved into three stages of development - the proto-delta, the transitional delta and the
modern delta. However, the delta building activities worked rigorously during the Tertiary
and the Quaternary periods of the Cenozoic Era. Therefore, the boundary of the Bengal Delta
is Chittagong Tripura Folded Belt in the East, Shillong Plateau in the north, Indian Shield in
the West and Bay of Bengal in the South. In this delta around 700 Rivers: 57 Trans-boundary
(54 with India and 3 with Myanmar). 93% catchment area lies outside Bangladesh with
annual sediment load of 1.0 to 1.4 billion tonnes.

*E-mail of Correspondence: masudwre96@gmail.com

Abundance of water in wet season but scarcity of water in dry season. Bangladesh
government is firmly committed to the implementation of national-level strategic plans such
as the Five Year Plans and Perspective Plan and also highly committed to meet the targets
under SDGs. Integration of these sectoral, national and global targets and plans into long term
coherent strategies taking climate change and future demands into account is the main
challenge. A plan needs to contribute directly to the realization of the country’s long term
vision, the “Perspective Plan 2041”. Due to the large uncertainties with respect to climate
change and socio-economic development, planning is being enriched with adaptive strategy
making in several deltas in the world. Rather than providing linear recipes, robust and
flexible strategies and measures have been taken, with strong institutions and a good
knowledge base that allows policy makers and stakeholders to anticipate and decide on the
most appropriate investments. The national challenge to maintain food sufficiency in the face
of increasing population and decreasing agricultural land as well as the threats posed by
climate change requires coordinated policy actions involving Ministry of Agriculture (MoA),
Ministry of Food (MoF), Ministry of Environment, Forests & Climate Change (MoEFCC),
Ministry of Disaster Management & Relief (MoDMR), Ministry of Water Resources
(MoWR), Ministry of Finance (MoF) and Ministry of Planning (MoP). So instead of only
focusing on short term ‘trial and error’ actions and projects, the idea is to keep the long term
vision in mind while prioritizing short term ‘no regret’ actions has been considered utmost
important. All the previous mid to long term plans were strategic in nature. But to make the
development pursuit secured and sustainable, the country needs long term investment plan
along with the strategies. From that point of view, since delta has created an enormous
volume of opportunities and therefore, it has also many challenges to utilize those benefits
and as well as some constraint either natural or institutional for the implementation.
OBJECTIVES OF THE RESEARCH
The objectives of the study is to come into view the potential opportunities in the Bengal
Delta and despite various type of challenges (that are facing by the people of this fertile land)
what is the necessary measures need for consideration to facilitate the implementation of
Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100.
LITURATURE REVIEW
BDP 2100 Volume 1 strategy part suggested that high population density presents many
development challenges which represent major constraint for achieving opportunities in a
deltaic country like Bangladesh. However, BDP 2100 addressed a lot of opportunities in the
delta such as Inland Water Transportation, Exploration of Blue Economy, Fisheries, Water
Tourism etc.
General Economics Division (GED) of Planning Commission suggested in the National-level
strategic plans such as the Five Year Plans and Perspective Plan and in the Sustainable
Development Goals that the challenge lies in integrating the sectoral, national and global
targets and plans into long term coherent strategies taking climate change and future demands
into account. Over the past 48 years, since independence, Bangladesh has secured
tremendous gains in development. Annual GDP growth has climbed from less than 4% in the
early 1970s to over 7% in 2017; per capita income has surged from less than US$ 100 in
1972 to US$ 1,751 in FY2018; poverty has fallen from 82% in 1971 to 24.3% in 2016;
fertility rate has decelerated from 7.3 in 1974 to 2.1 in 2016; life expectancy has increased
from 55 years in 1974 to 72 years in 2017; child mortality has declined from 240 per
thousand in 1974 to 31 in 2017; and adult literacy has increased from 22% to 72.9% over the
same period. Bangladesh has achieved food self-sufficiency and the economy is transforming
from an agrarian base towards a modern manufacturing and services economy. In 2015,
Bangladesh crossed over from a World Bank classified low-income economy to a lower
middle income economy. The country has also fulfilled all the criteria of graduating from
least developed country to a developing country. Good planning and strategies are necessary
to move coherently and in an organized fashion. Vision 2021, the 10-year perspective plan
(2010-2021) and the 7th FYP (FY2016-FY2020) are all parts of the government’s ongoing
national development strategies (BDP 2100).
M S Siddiqui (2019) suggested that Delta has many challenge and opportunity if properly
utilized the natural resources. It is threatened with multiple natural hazards like floods such as
river flood, flash flood, urban flood, storm surge, cyclones, droughts, erosion including
climate change. Climate change effects like intensive and increasing rainfall, sea level rise,
temperature variation at extreme level is expected to enhance the intensity and frequency of
these hazards.
The Financial Express (2019) suggested that the average temperature in Bangladesh
increased up to 1° Celsius in the last 47 years, whereas average rainfall decreased from 640
mm in 1971 to 370 mm in 2016. If the country cannot cope with such adverse effects of
environmental changes, economic development of Bangladesh cannot be made sustainable.
APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY
This study applied descriptive statistics to present the current scenario of the Bengal Delta
and to carry out the study, basically secondary data and different kind’s book are mainly
used. Graphical inspection is a common and useful technique to observe the trend and
behaviour of any variable. This study inspects the trends in some variables through graphical
interpretation. The resources used in this study are: (i) Different volume of Bangladesh Delta
Plan. (ii) Baseline study of Bangladesh Delta Plan. The other information are used in this
study have been collected from different books, policies acts and rules, like Bangladesh
Water Act 2013, Bangladesh Water Rules, 2018.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

BENGAL DELTA OPPORTUNITIES
The delta opportunities are many. Along with a very successful population control policy,
Bangladesh has now met food self-sufficiency requirements with prospects for rice exports.
Therefore, more than 160 million human resources, more than 700 rivers system, fertile land,
blue economy (fish resources, port facilities, tourism, deep sea fossil fuel resources-
petroleum) etc. are the blessing for the delta.

(i) HUMAN RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT

According to BBS census 2011 the population of Bangladesh is 168 million. Bangladesh
Bank data shows that Remittance inflow hit a record $18.32 billion in the just concluded year
of 2019 that also indicate that remittance inflow in 2019 grew by 17.89 per cent against
$15.54 billion in 2018. Bangladesh Bank data describe, the Bangladeshi expatriates sent
$1,687 million home in December, 2019 with a staggering 40-per cent growth compared with
the corresponding month in 2018. So, there is no doubt that population is the blessing for this
delta. Besides, there are a lot of unemployed people available in the country, we can mention
them as resources when we can use them for the more production, development or other
purposes. Therefore, this has allowed Bangladesh to increase rice production from 12 million
tonnes in 1973 to 35.2 million tonnes in 2017. This amazing achievement despite the multiple
risks posed by the delta and climate change is a remarkable feather in the hat of the
Bangladesh policy makers.

(ii) NATIONAL RESOURCES

Highly fertile land: Agricultural land: 65%, Forest lands: 17%, Water and wetlands: 10%,
Plentiful rivers (more than 700 nos.): Water bodies about 4.70 million ha, Open access to sea
is a huge advantage: It could serve the needs of growing internal trade and commerce, Could
become a regional hub for international sea transportation, Dynamic Inland Water Transport
(around 6000 km): Almost all districts are connected with each other, The Industrial/Growth
centers nearby rivers, The Sundarbans: The largest natural mangrove forest, Unique
ecosystem covers an area of 577,000 ha of which 175,400 ha is under water, Unique
ecological settings: There are 2 Ramsar sites, 14 (13+1) Ecological Critically Areas (ECAs),
17 National Parks, 28 Wildlife Sanctuaries, 8 Eco-parks and 2 Botanical Gardens, Important
five ECAs are: Hakaluki Haor (18,382 ha), Tanguar Haor (9727 ha), Sonadia Island (4,916
ha), St Martin’s Island (590 ha), Teknaf Peninsula (10,465 ha), Over 800 species of wildlife
identified in ECAs.

(iii) FISHERIES RESOURCES

Bangladesh is one of the world’s leading fish producing country with a total production of
4.276 million MT in Fiscal Year 2017-2018 and government is trying to sustain this growth
performance which eventually ensures to achieve the projected production target of 4.55
million MT in Fiscal Year 2020-2021 (DoF, 2018). The plentiful of rivers, fresh wetlands,
and lakes provide ample scope for these fisheries resources. More recently, Bangladesh has
been increasingly exploiting the open access to sea. Marine fishing has become a potentially
important source of fish. Owing to the growing importance of fishing, the structure of
agriculture is slowly changing as the share of crop agriculture is falling and that of fisheries
increasing. Consequently, the value-added and employment shares of fisheries are increasing.
Marine fishing is already emerging as one of the major sources of domestic food, exports,
income and employment.
(iv) RIVER SYSTEMS
The plentiful of rivers in Bangladesh provide another huge comparative advantage. Almost
all districts of Bangladesh are connected with each other and with the growth centers of
Dhaka, Chattogram and Khulna through river ways. The inland waterways provide an
environment friendly and low-cost transport option for both passengers and cargo for the
country as a whole but especially for the rural poor. Inland water transport is one of the
important sources of rural employment. Unfortunately, this comparative advantage has not
been properly exploited by Bangladesh. More focus on river transport can provide a major
opportunity to lower the cost of production, reduce environmental degradation, conserve
budgetary resources and add to employment prospects for the poor.

(v) BLUE ECONOMY

The open access to sea is a huge advantage to Bangladesh. In addition to the port facilities
that could serve the needs of the growing internal trade and commerce needs of Bangladesh.
With proper investments, Bangladesh can become a regional hub for sea transportation.
Increasingly, the open access to sea is becoming a major opportunity in another way. The
rapidly growing demand for energy in Bangladesh owing to increasing GDP growth led by
the expansion of manufacturing sector is facing a huge challenge of primary energy shortage.
The rapid depletion of natural gas has led to a search for other primary fuels. The
Government has rightly decided that sole reliance on imported fossil fuel cannot be the
answer. In addition to the fluctuations and uncertainties of global oil prices that cause
tremendous fiscal and balance of payments uncertainties, Bangladesh is acutely aware of the
need to adopt cleaner energy option to oil. This search has led to a strategy of procuring clean
imported coal, LNG and LPG. All these primarily require port facilities to handle these bulky
cargoes.

 PORTS FACILITIES
After the independence of 47 years later, Bangladesh is slowly capitalizing the open access to
sea by establishing new ports, in addition to Chattogram and Mongla ports. The ongoing
Payra port construction in Patuakhali is an example of this. There are many other
opportunities that could boost Bangladesh trade and commerce by reducing the cost of trade
logistics through easier and lower cost access to ports in terms of time and money. In addition
to ports, the prospects for converting the open access to sea to a major source of growth and
development are also being viewed from the point of developing the blue economy of
Bangladesh.

 TOURISM INDUSTRIES
Due to the open access to the sea Bangladesh has a tremendous opportunities for the potential
tourism sector. There is also an emerging demand for coastal tourism and alternative areas to
the traditional Cox’s Bazar coastal resorts are emerging. An example of such coastal tourism
is Kuakata of Patuakhali. The judicial utilization of the blue economy opportunities is just
emerging and the potential is huge.

 PETROLEUM AND MINERAL RESOURCES

The another potential areas of this delta are exploration of petroleum and other marine
resources, beach mineral sand, renewable energy by wave, land reclamation by sediment
management, etc.

(vi) THE ECOSYSTEMS: FORESTS, WETLANDS, COASTAL, MARINE AND

BIODIVERSITY
 ECOSYSTEM DIVERSITY
A tremendous natural asset for Bangladesh is its rich and diverse ecosystem that not only
provides it with the many advantages noted before, it also provides for a high quality of life
in terms of the eco-balance. This ecosystem has come under stress from climate change as
well as human interventions from settlements and unsustained exploitation of the natural
resources. Preserving this ecosystem is a major development challenge moving forward. The
ecosystems of Bangladesh can be categorized into two major groups (i) Terrestrial and (ii)
Aquatic. The terrestrial ecosystems include homestead, forest, and crop field; while seasonal
and perennial wetlands, rivers, lakes, coastal mangroves, coastal mudflats and chars, and
marine fall into the aquatic category. Each of the ecosystems has many sub-units with distinct
characteristics as well.
 TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEM
According to National Forest and Tree Resources Assessment 2005-07, homesteads cover
about 20% (2.767 million ha) of the total land, of which 10% is covered with trees and the
rest is covered with homestead vegetation, which is important for its wild shrubs and herbs as
well as locally cultivated plants and as wildlife refuge. The site lower than homesteads but a
little higher than the adjoining agricultural fields is locally called ‘kanda’. Long ago, the
kandas were occupied by swamp forest, reed swamps and grass. The village roads, highways
and embankments provide a good habitat for woody and fruits yielding plants. Coastal
embankment plantation has long been in practice in southern Bangladesh.
 AQUATIC EOSYSTEM
These consist of seasonal and perennial wetlands, rivers, lakes, coastal mangroves, coastal
mudflats and chars, and marine areas are important habitats for aquatic plants, birds,
mammals, fish and animals.” The majority of the natural ecosystems of Bangladesh are
wetlands (Haors). The Tanguar Haor, Aila Beel, Hakaluki Haor and Hail Haor are considered
as Important Bird Areas (IBA). Remnant swamp forest patches are now restricted to sloping
areas, helping to protect homesteads from wave erosion, while some are recently replanted
areas. The Chalan beel is an extensive low land area at the lower Atrai basin in the
northwestern region of Bangladesh spread across the districts of Natore, Pabna and Sirajganj.
It consists of a series of beels connected to one another by various channels to form more or
less a continuous water body during the rainy season. As long as the Jamuna remains flooded
during the monsoon months, the beel area expands into a vast water body with dense aquatic
vegetation. It, however, dries out in the winter leaving only patches of ‘water-holes’ in the
central part of this zone. The area of Chalan Beel has been reduced and land use has been
changing.
Moreover, Bengal Delta has others opportunities which are mentioned below:
(i) EDUCATION
Education in Bangladesh is overseen by the country's Ministry of Education. The Ministry of
Primary and Mass Education is responsible for implementing policy for primary
education and state-funded schools at a local level. In Bangladesh, all citizens must undertake
twelve years of compulsory education which consists of eight years at primary school level
and four years at high school level. Primary and secondary education is financed by the state
and free of charge in public schools.
Bangladesh conforms fully to the UN's Education for All (EFA) objectives and
the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) as well as other education-related international
declarations. Article 17 of the Bangladesh Constitution provides that all children receive free
and compulsory education. The main education system is divided into three levels: (i)
Primary level (class 1–8), (ii) Secondary level (9-12): There is no middle school system in
Bangladesh, (iii) Tertiary level. At all levels of schooling, students can choose to receive their
education in English or Bangla. Private schools tend to make use of English-based study
media while government-sponsored schools use Bangla. The Government of Bangladesh has
taken a multi-criteria strategy for the education but need more vocational training and
research based education. In the global ranking the Bangladeshi universities are on the
bottom side. Furthermore, in Bangladesh the education is mainly based on urban areas, the
rural areas students are still now underestimated. They do not get enough counseling.
Therefore, this sector has a huge opportunity to meet the demand of BDP 2100 strategy.
(ii) INFRASTRUCTURE
Bangladesh has long been considered a country approaching middle-income status.
Economically, it has been slowly improving poverty levels throughout the nation. However,
one major issue stands in the way of further progress: infrastructure in Bangladesh.
Bangladesh is a country of a thousand rivers, large and small, and most of its territory is
regularly flooded during the monsoon season. This fact makes it extremely difficult and
expensive to build modern transportation and communication networks. The river boats and
ferries traditionally used for transportation are cheap, but slow and inefficient. The situation
is further complicated by the fact that the Bangladeshi government has sharply limited
resources not only for building new infrastructure but also for maintaining the existing one.
From the colonial era Bangladesh inherited underdeveloped and unevenly distributed
infrastructure and transportation networks. Poor and inefficient infrastructure undermined the
economic development in the country, and only recently has the government been able to
address the problem systematically and channel investments towards expanding its highways,
railroads, seaports, and airports. More recently, with international assistance the government
has also started to modernize its telecommunications infrastructure and introduce the Internet.
It is true that the Government of Bangladesh has taken initiatives for building some mega
structures like Padma Bridge, Karnafuli Tunnel, Paira Port, Ruppur Power Plant, Metro-Rail
Project, Icon Tower, cricket stadium, 3rd terminal of Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport,
Dhaka Elevated Express Way and the feasibility study of the underground train services is
going on.
(iii) CULTURAL BONDING
The people of Bangladesh’s way of life make up the culture of Bangladesh. The country has a
diverse culture that has evolved over time with influences from diverse social groups.
Bangladesh’s primary religions, Islam, Buddhism, and Hinduism, have played a critical role
in influencing the country’s culture. Development of the Bengali culture proliferated in the
19th century and part of the 20th century during the Bengal Renaissance, with renowned
Bengali writers, scientists, filmmakers, musicians, artists, and researchers playing a critical
role. This culture manifests in the nation’s dance, music, literature, architecture, and even
clothing. Therefore, cultural bonding may be a strong sector to fulfill the demand of BDP
2100 strategy.
(iv) SEDIMENTATION & CHAR DEVELOPMENT
Sedimentation problem in Bangladesh is aggravated by the construction of costal polders that
de-linked the floodplains from the peripheral rivers. Coastal polders were built during the
1960s. If polders were not present, sedimentation would happen inside the protected region of
polders. Bangladesh is currently working with the Netherlands and the International Fund for
Agricultural Development on a project to develop five chars located in the same district as
Bhasan Char. The project involves building climate-resilient infrastructure, land settlement
and titling, and means for livelihood. Char islands are fragile landmasses formed over time by
sediments carried in the murky waters of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna river system.
These islets are vulnerable to erosion and floods. Besides, the Bay of Bengal is also a delicate
zone; about 40 percent of all global storm surges every year are recorded in Bangladesh
WHO, 2011). Some chars wash away in strong tides, while others stabilize over several
decades and are used for fishing and farming and are eventually inhabited. The chars are the
property of the Bangladesh government, which has tasked the forest department to oversee
the planting of trees to stabilize these lands (CDSP IV, 2017).
Bangladesh has several inhabited char islands (Bremner L., 2020) historically occupied by
vulnerable communities (Bremner L., 2020) despite the environmental risks (Shafi Noor
Islam, et. al., 2011). During the monsoon season, the river flow increases, washing over
the chars and damaging the shelters, crops and livestock. As the river recedes, often
new chars emerge (Lahiri- Dutt K., Samanta G., 2013).
 (v) EXPORT OF PHARMACEUTICALS
The pharmaceutical industry in Bangladesh is one of the most developed technology sectors
within Bangladesh. Manufacturers produce insulin, hormones, and cancer drugs. This sector
provides 97% of the total medicinal requirement of the local market. The industry also
exports medicines to global markets, including Europe. Pharmaceutical companies are
expanding their business with the aim to expand the export market. In 2018, the country's
domestic pharmaceutical market size stood at Tk 20,511.8 crore with 15.6% compound
annual growth rate (CAGR) for the last five years. Once largely dependent on imports and
multinational companies to meet the local demand, Bangladeshi pharmaceutical industry is
growing very fast meeting 98% of domestic demand and posting a 27% growth in export
earnings. In 2018, the country's domestic pharmaceutical market size stood at Tk 20, 511.8
crore with 15.6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the last five years. On top of
that, the sector is expected to grow at 15% year-on-year to reach $5.11 billion by 2023,
propelled by high investment by local companies as they seek to grab a bigger share of the
global market (Ovi, I. H., Mahmud N., 2019).
BENGAL DELTA CHALLENGES
The Bengal Delta is a tide-dominated delta, where tides play the key role in the sediment
dispersal process and in shaping the delta. Because of the geographical position, this delta
faces various challenges like floods, drought, sea level & salinity intrusion, river bank
erosion, climate change etc. in different times. Therefore, delta progradation always makes
the river system unstable, and rapid changes cause the delta to become dynamic. Sea level
rise induced by unequivocal climate change and subsidence would make the delta more
vulnerable in the coming decades.

A. CLIMATE CHANGE
According to the Fifth Assessment Report of the International Panel for Climate Change
(IPCC), the globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data, as
calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.85 (0.65 to 1.06)0C, over the period 1880 to
2012. The total increase between the average of the 1850-1900 period and the 2003-2012
period is 0.78 (0.72 to 0.85)0C. For the longest period where the calculation of regional trends
is sufficiently complete (1901 to 2012), almost the entire globe has experienced surface
warming. In addition to robust multi-decadal warming, global mean surface temperature
exhibits substantial decadal and inter-annual variability. For the future, the IPCC projected
global warming for selected time slices for different Representative Concentration Pathways
(RCPs). For 2046-2065, mean temperature rise projections range from 1.0 to 1.40C whereas it
ranges from 1.0 to 3.70C for the period 2081-2100 (Table 1.1).

Table 1.1: Projected Global Mean Surface Warming (0C) for Different RCPs (IPCC, 2013)
Scenario 2046-2065 2081-2100
RCP2.6 1.0 1.0
RCP4.5 1.4 1.8
RCP6.0 1.3 2.2
RCP8.5 2.0 3.7

According to National Water management Plan (NWMP) 2004, Bangladesh has been divided
into 8 hydrological regions, which are the Southwest (SW), Northeast (NE), Northwest
(NW), South-central (SC), Southeast (SE), Eastern Hills (EH), North-central (NC), and the
main Rivers and Estuaries (RE). The region-wise seasonal changes in temperature and
rainfall during 2030 and 2050 under Business As Usual (BAU) scenario are presented in
Table 1.2 and Table 1.3 respectively. Table 1.2 shows that the temperature will rise in all
regions in future in a similar trend with the global pattern. So, it is projected that due to
climate change annual temperature might rise in the country in the range of 1.4 to 1.70C for
BAU by 2050.

Table 1.2: Projected Seasonal and Annual Surface Warming (0C) for Business As Usual
(IPCC, 2013)
Region Seasonal Temperature change Annual Seasonal Temperature change Annual
(0C) for 2030 (0C) for 2050
DJF MAM JJAS ON DJF MAM JJAS ON
0
Maximum Temperature ( C)
NW 1.5 -0.1 1.3 1.1 1.0 2.3 0.6 1.9 1.9 1.7
NC 1.4 -0.3 1.3 1.0 0.9 2.3 0.5 1.9 1.6 1.6
NE 1.4 0.0 1.3 1.1 1.0 2.2 0.5 1.9 1.6 1.6
SW 1.2 0.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 2.2 0.9 1.6 1.2 1.5
SC 1.1 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.8 2.0 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.5
SE 1.2 -0.1 1.2 0.9 0.8 2.1 0.6 1.7 1.3 1.4
EH 1.0 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.6 0.9 1.5 1.2 1.4
0
Minimum Temperature ( C)
NW 1.4 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.1 2.3 1.3 1.7 2.3 1.9
NC 1.5 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.1 2.4 1.2 1.7 2.3 1.8
NE 1.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.3 2.4 1.2 1.8 2.4 1.9
SW 1.3 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.0 2.4 1.3 1.6 1.9 1.8
SC 1.3 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.3 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.7
SE 1.4 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.1 2.4 1.2 1.6 2.0 1.8
EH 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.1 2.2 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.8
Note: DJF stands for December, January & February; MAM: March, April & May; JJAS:
June, July, August & September; ON: October, November.

The rainfall pattern is going to be more variable and erratic in the future. There is an
indication that pre monsoon and monsoon rainfall will increase under Business As Usual
scenario (Table 1.3). On an annual basis, the rainfall is expected to increase in most regions
during 2030. However, during 2050, southern parts of the country along with the eastern hills
might get reductions in rainfall. Under the extreme scenario, as temperature rise will be
higher, more erratic behaviour of rainfall along with changes in rainfall amounts is expected.

Table 1.3: Projected Seasonal and Annual Change in Rainfall for Business As Usual (IPCC,
2013)
Region Seasonal Temperature change Annual Seasonal Temperature change Annual
(0C) for 2030 (0C) for 2050
DJF MAM JJAS ON DJF MAM JJAS ON
NW 1.5 -0.1 1.3 1.1 1.0 2.3 0.6 1.9 1.9 1.7
NC 1.4 -0.3 1.3 1.0 0.9 2.3 0.5 1.9 1.6 1.6
NE 1.4 0.0 1.3 1.1 1.0 2.2 0.5 1.9 1.6 1.6
SW 1.2 0.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 2.2 0.9 1.6 1.2 1.5
SC 1.1 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.8 2.0 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.5
SE 1.2 -0.1 1.2 0.9 0.8 2.1 0.6 1.7 1.3 1.4
EH 1.0 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.6 0.9 1.5 1.2 1.4
Note: DJF stands for December, January & February; MAM: March, April & May; JJAS:
June, July, August & September; ON: October, November.

(i) FLOODS
Flood is a recurrent phenomenon of Bangladesh, occurring almost every year. Because of the
three mighty rivers the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna, most of the country
consists of huge flood plain and delta, of which around 70% of the total area is less than 1
meter above sea level and 10% of the land area is made up of lakes and rivers. Bangladesh
experiences heavy monsoon rains, especially over the highlands along with frequent tropical
storms in coastal zone. All of these phenomena trigger frequent flood occurrence in
Bangladesh. On average, an estimated 20-25% of the country becomes inundated due to river
spilling and drainage congestion. Recent evidence reveals that the magnitude and frequency
of mega floods is increasing (Fig. 1.1) as a consequence of climate change. Other human
causes like construction of dam in upper riparian countries, unplanned urbanization in
illegally encroached floodplains, lack of combination of structural and non-structural
measures etc. are aggravating the situation.

Fig. 1.1: Increased Frequency of Mega Floods due to Climate Change (CEGIS, 2013)

(ii) DROUGHT
The droughts occurring in Bangladesh are not meteorological droughts but mainly
agricultural droughts, which could be also termed as severe moisture stress. In the
Bangladesh context, drought is defined as the period when soil moisture content is less than
the required amount for satisfactory crop-growth during the normal crop-growing season.
The mean annual rainfall in Barind and drought prone area is 1,250-1,750 mm, falling mainly
in 4 to 5 wet months (BDP 2100 Water Resources Baseline Study, 2015). The drought
situation of the area becomes severe during April-May due to the cumulative effect of
presence of soils with low moisture holding capacity (<200 mm available moisture),
increasing number of dry days (precipitation <0.5 PET) and occurrence of extreme summer
temperature of more than 400C. In the drought prone agro-ecological zones of Bangladesh,
period of dry days range between 32-48 days, starting from 24 March to 21 May (BDP 2100
Agriculture and Food Security Baseline Study). During this period the temperature also rises
more than 400C for 5 to 15 days within the same agroecological zones. In addition, some
soils have low moisture holding capacities, which show different degrees of draughtiness’.
The geographical distribution of drought prone areas for different seasons (shown in Map 1.1
and Map 1.2) illustrates that the western parts as well as Barind and drought prone areas of
the country will be at greater risk from droughts during both the Kharif and pre-Kharif
seasons. It is estimated that under a moderate climate change scenario, Aus production would
decline by 27% while wheat production would be reduced to 61% (BDP 2100 Agriculture
and Food Security Baseline Study). Under a severe climate change scenario (with 60%
moisture stress), yield of Boro might reduce by 55-62%. Moisture stress might force farmers
to reduce the area of Boro cultivation. In case of a severe drought (moisture stress) forced by
a change of temperature by +20C and a reduction in precipitation by 10%, runoff in the
Ganges, the Brahmaputra, and the Meghna rivers would be reduced by 32%, 25% and 17%
respectively (BDP 2100 Climate Change Baseline Study). This would limit surface irrigation
potential in Barind and drought prone areas and challenge the food self-sufficiency of the
country.

Map 1.1: Barind and Drought prone (Kharif) areas Map 1.2: Barind and Drought prone (Rabi
of Bangladesh (SRDI, 2013) and Pre Kharif) areas of Bangladesh (SRDI,
2013)
(iii) RIVER BANK EROSION
Bangladesh is a riverine country. The morphology of the country’s rivers is highly dynamic
and river bank erosion is also a regular phenomenon, particularly along the banks of the main
rivers. Erosion in the three major rivers (the Jamuna, the Padma and the lower Meghna) can
be considered as proxies for riverbank erosion in Bangladesh (Map 1.3). The present rate of
the Jamuna bank erosion is about 1,770 ha per year while bank erosion by the Padma River is
about 1,298 ha per year and the lower Meghna (erodes at a rate of 2,900 ha per year (BDP
2100 Water Resources Baseline Study).

Map 1.3: River Bank Erosion in Bangladesh (CEGIS, 2016)

(iv) SEA LEVEL RISE AND SALINITY INTRUSION

Sea Level Rise and consequently, salinity intrusion are the most prominent issues now-a-days
in Bangladesh for its complex geographical position. IPCC (2013) predicts SLR between 0.2
to 1.0 m for low to high emission scenarios in 2100 for the Bay of Bengal. For the future, the
IPCC projections for very high emissions (red, RCP 8.5) and very low emissions (indigo,
RCP 4.5) are shown in Fig. 1.2.
 Fig. 1.2: Sea Level Rise Predictions for different RCPs in Bay of Bengal (IPCC, 2013)

The rising sea level impedes fresh water availability in the coastal zone, expediting intrusion
of salinity front. Both surface water and soil salinity along the coast may increase with the
rising sea level (Map 1.4).

Map 1.4: Soil Surface Salinity Extents in 2005 and 2050 (CEGIS, 2014)

(v) CYCLONES AND STORM SURGES

Low lying areas of coastal zone are highly vulnerable to cyclones, which pose serious threat
to lives and properties of the region. Nearly every year, cyclones hit the country’s coastal
zone and a severe cyclone strikes the country every three years, on average. Intensity of
cyclonic storm surges as well as depth and extent of storm surge induced coastal inundation
are likely to increase in changing climate through rising Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and
sea level (Map 1.5). The IPCC further indicates that future cyclonic storm surges and related
coastal floods in Bangladesh will likely become more severe as future tropical cyclones
increase in intensity. Recurvature of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, the wide, shallow
continental shelf, especially in the eastern part of the country and the high tidal range are the
major reasons for this disproportionately large impact of cyclones. Low lying topography like
nearly sea-level geography of the coastal land, high-density population and inadequate
coastal protection system are aggravating the situation. Furthermore, triangular shape at the
head of the Bay of Bengal, which helps to funnel sea water pushed by the wind towards the
coast, causing further surge amplification; Meghna-estuarine region is facing the most surge
amplifications. In general, it has been observed that the frequency of a 10 m high wave (surge
plus tide) along the Bangladesh coast occurs about once every 20 years, while a wave with a
7 m height occurs about once in 5 years (BDP 2100 Coast and Polder Issues Baseline Study).

Map 1.5: Risk from Major Cyclones in 1960–2009 (CEGIS, 2016)

B. MAJOR CHALLENGES TO THE ECOSYSTEM FROM CLIMATE CHANGE

The major challenges emerge from pressures that bring changes in land use in both terrestrial
and aquatic environments. These include demand for increased agricultural lands, collection
of fuel wood, and non-timber forest products by the local communities, natural habitats
converted into human habitations, ecosystem fragmentation and loss of habitat. Additionally,
there is degradation of habitats in all ecosystems and landscapes, change in hydrological
regimes, pollution, poorly managed and unsustainable tourism (St. Martin's Island,
Lawachara National Park, Ratargul Swamp Forest, Madhabkundu Eco-park and Sundarban),
unsustainable agricultural practices, urban expansion, invasive alien species, and impacts of
climate change including sea level rise. Unchecked challenges will cause irreparable losses of
ecosystem services relating to: (a) provisioning services such as food and water; (b)
regulating services such as flood and disease control; (c) cultural services such as spiritual,
recreational, and cultural benefits; and (d) supporting services, such as nutrient cycling, that
maintain the conditions for life on Earth. Climate change would cause shifting in composition
of agro-ecological zones as well as species in ecosystems.
 C. NATURAL HAZARDS RISKS AND CHALLENGES BY HOTSPOTS
Besides eight (08) hydrological zones by NWMP, 2004 BDP 2100 describes six (06)
hotspots. Therefore Bengal Delta challenges according to six hotspots are mentioned below:
(i) COASTAL ZONE HOTSPOT
The Coastal Zone of Bangladesh is covered under the existing Coastal Zone Policy and
Coastal Development Strategy 2005. Three hydrological indicators characterize the Coastal
Zone Hotspot: salinity intrusion, tidal fluctuation, and risk of cyclones and storm surges. The
prospects of climate change impacts such as sea level rise further exacerbates these problems
adversely affecting habitation, economic activity and livelihoods of the poor and vulnerable.
Across the coastal zone tidal amplitude ranges from approximately 1.5 m in the west to over
4 m in the east and up to 8 m at spring tide near Sandwip. The coastal zone can be subdivided
into four areas because of the diversity of conditions. Each of the four areas has a distinct
typical set of conditions and problems: i) South West (Ganges Tidal Floodplain- West); ii)
South Central (Ganges Tidal Flood plain East); iii) South East (Young Meghna Estuarine
Floodplain); and iv) East and Hill (Chattogram Coastal Plains).
(ii) BARIND AND DROUGHT PRONE AREAS HOTSPOT
Most characteristically, the Barind Tract at the west side of Rajshahi Division makes the area
elevated, and the elevated riverbanks of the Jamuna and the Ganges make the region basin-
shaped where Chalan Beel is located. Most of the rivers of this area come from the Ganges
River and Barind Tract and outfall into the Brahmaputra-the Jamuna River. During the last
few decades, there were a number of human interventions such as the Teesta Barrage in India
(at Gazaldoba in 1985) and in Bangladesh (at Dalia in 1990), which have severe
consequences on the availability of water during the dry season. The greater part of the
Barind Tract is almost plain and is crisscrossed by only a few minor rivers. This tract is
considered an ecologically fragile ecosystem with extremely low vegetation cover. Though
the zone was rich with faunal diversity in the past, it has now noticeably reduced mostly due
to various pressures like expansion of human habitat, agricultural extension, unwise use of
agrochemicals, and illegal hunting.
(iii) HAOR AND FLASH FLOOD AREAS HOTSPOT (NORTH-EAST
REGION): FRESHWATER WETLANDS
Haors are important bowl or saucer-shaped depressions or natural reservoirs of freshwater
wetlands with renewable and non-renewable natural resources in the Sylhet Basin in the
northeastern region of Bangladesh. They are the back swamps or bowl shaped depressions
between the natural levees of rivers. They are flooded to a depth of as much as 4-6 m during
the rainy season, and in most cases during monsoon two or more Haors become linked and
form large water bodies. During the dry season most of the water drains out except some
shallow lakes locally called Beels. Surface water is likely to be the most severely impacted
natural resource in Bangladesh due to climate change; an increase in the risk of extreme
precipitation and flooding is likely; warming temperatures could also increase the length of
the growing season as well as shift the geographic range of some tree species.
Geographically, Haor and Flash Flood Areas is located in between two major ecosystems of
Bangladesh and Northeastern India. One is Meghalaya-Assam-Tarap hill ranges in India and
the other is Brahmaputra-Meghna river systems in Bangladesh. These hill ranges are covered
with mixed evergreen forests from where Haors receive most of its freshwater through
thousands of hill streams locally known as Charas. The Haors in the northeastern parts of
Bangladesh are probably the most complex of seasonally inundated wetlands. They switch
between a vast basin of water during the monsoon and a well-networked system of smaller
wetlands including beels and canals in the summer.
(iv) RIVER SYSTEMS AND ESTUARIES HOTSPOT
Major rivers, including the Ganges, the Brahmaputra-Jamuna, the Padma and the Meghna
and their numerous tributaries and distributaries make Bangladesh a land of rivers, building
the Bengal Delta. The catchment area of these rivers is about 1.72 million km2 of which only
7% lies within the borders of Bangladesh. This catchment generates 120 million ha-m of
runoff annually, of which only 10% is generated within Bangladesh. In addition to the vast
quantities of water, these rivers carry about 1.1 billion tonnes of sediment every year. These
rivers are dynamic in nature, as the land mass is composed of recent deltaic deposits and the
major rivers originate in young mountains across the country’s borders, such as the
Himalayas, the Meghalaya and the Tripura Hills in India, China, Nepal and Bhutan. These
young mountains yield huge quantities of sediment due to their active tectonic movements,
wind and rain activities in the regions, and snow melting. The Bengal Basin has been filled
by sediments derived from erosion of the highland boundaries on all three landward sides.
However, the main source of the sediment has been the Himalayas due to their alpine nature.
Recently deposited, alluvial and deltaic sediments form about 90% of the land area of
Bangladesh. The Ganges has, together with the Brahmaputra, delivered enormous quantities
of sediment to the Bengal Basin. These sediments have formed the world’s largest river delta
with an area of about 100,000 km2. River bank erosion is a serious hazard that directly or
indirectly causes the suffering of about one million people annually (Table 1.4). While there
is some accretion, on net river bank erosion dominates. A large number of people living in
both rural and urban areas become the victims of flooding annually. These two hazards –
flooding and river erosion – are major contributors to loss of life and property and damage to
public goods and infrastructure. Sediments from river bank erosion combined with sediment
deposits from the mountains create major difficulties for the navigability of the rivers.
Table 1.4: Erosion & Accretion in three Major Rivers of Bangladesh (1973-2018) (CEGIS,
2018)
Name of River Erosion (ha) Accretion (ha)
Ganges 31,421 27,026
Jamuna 93,302 16,603
Padma 37,296 14,246
Total 162,019 57,875

(v) CHATTOGRAM HILL TRACTS HOTSPOT

The Chattogram Hill Tracts (CHT) area, covering three districts Rangamati, Khagrachhari
and Bandarban, is the only extensive hill area in Bangladesh bordering Myanmar on the
southeast, the Indian state of Tripura on the north, Mizoram on the east, and Chattogram
district on the west. The hills in the CHT rise steeply, thus looking far more impressive than
their height would imply. Most of the ranges have scarps in the west, with cliffs and
waterfalls. The CHT contains a manmade lake called Kaptai Lake, which has been created for
the Karnafuli Hydro-Electric Project. Loss of forest and vegetation cover and unsustainable
farming practices will intensify impacts of increased water runoff, soil erosion, landslides,
and drying up of water springs and streams in this hotspot as a result of climate change.
(vi) URBAN AREAS HOTSPOT
The urban population base has expanded rapidly from 9% to nearly 28% between 1974 and
2011 (Table 1.5), which makes Bangladesh a ‘rapidly urbanizing country’. With a population
of 42 million in 2011 and increasing on a daily basis due to in-migration from rural areas, the
urban area is the most densely populated area in Bangladesh averaging about 1590 people per
km2.
Table 1.5: Urbanization Overview (BBS, 2012)
Census Total Growth Total Level of Decadal Annual
year national rate of urban Urbanization increase in exponential
population national population (%) urban growth rate
(million) population (million) population of urban
(%) (%) population
(%)
1951 44.17 0.5 1.82 4.33 18.38 1.69
1961 55.22 2.26 2.64 5.19 45.11 3.72
1974 76.37 2.48 6.27 8.87 137.57 6.66
1981 89.91 2.32 13.23 15.18 110.68 10.66
1991 111.45 2.17 20.87 19.63 57.79 4.56
2001 123.1 1.47 28.61 23.1 37.05 3.15
2011 150.4 1.37 42.11 28.4 47.19 4.12

D. OTHER CHALLENGES
In BDP 2100 strategy the above mentioned challenges are described precisely but apart from
the delta challenges there are a lot of difficulties which are faced Bangladesh rigorously.
These are mentioned below:
(i) WATER POLLUTION
Bangladesh, one of the most densely populated countries of the world, has plentiful water
sources, but these sources are being polluted continuously. Both surface water and
groundwater sources are contaminated with different contaminants like toxic trace metals,
coliforms as well as other organic and inorganic pollutants. As most of the population uses
these water sources, especially groundwater sources which contain an elevated amount of
arsenic throughout the country; health risk regarding consuming water is very high. Death
due to water-borne diseases is widespread in Bangladesh, particularly among children.
Anthropogenic sources such as untreated industrial effluents, improper disposal of domestic
waste, agricultural runoffs are the main contributors regarding water pollution. A total water
pollution status of this country, as well as the sources of this severe condition, is crucial to
evaluate public health risk (Hasan, M.K., Shahriar A., Jim K.U., 2019).
(ii) POVERTY & UNEMPLOYMENT
As in many developing countries, poverty in Bangladesh has been an alarming social issue
for a significant amount of time. Shortly after its independence, approximately 90% of the
population lived under the poverty line. However, since economic reforms and trade
liberalization of early 1990s, along with accelerated economic growth since early-2000s,
Bangladesh have experienced a dramatic progress in reducing poverty. The remarkable
progress in poverty alleviation has been recognized by international institutions. According to
World Bank, more than 33 million Bangladeshi people have been lifted out of poverty since
2000; as measured by the percentage of people living on the equivalent of US$1.90 or less
per day in 2011 purchasing price parity terms (source: Wikipedia).
Since early-2000s, rapid economic growth has fueled a remarkable increase in per-capita
income. Bangladesh's per capita has increased almost threefold between 2010 and 2020, from
under $700 to $2,068, moving Bangladesh into the ranks of middle-income economy. At
current growth, Bangladesh is projected to enter upper-middle income status by 2041. Based
on the current rate of poverty reduction, Bangladesh is projected to eliminate extreme poverty
by 2021, the first country in South Asia to do so (source: Wikipedia).
The countries labour force (15 years+ population) stood at 84. 6 million. in the LFS of 2002-
2003 it stood 80. 8 millions. The populations below the age of 15 years falls into the category
of child population and cannot as per law be treated as labour force. Even if we stick to the
2005-2006 LFS figure of 84. 6 million. Secondly, according to the LFS 2005-2006 the annual
labour force growth rate for the period 2000-2003 to 2005-06 stood at 2. 21 percent which is
higher than the annual population growth rate. Have we been able to increase job
opportunities at the above growth rate of force (Dr. Mahbub Sarfaraj, 2016).
(iii) INEQUAL DISTRIBUTION OF RESOURCES
Bangladesh attained its interim graduation from the least developed country to middle-
income status in 2018 and is expected to achieve the status permanently in 2024 if it succeeds
to meet conditions based on which the status is given by the Committee for Development
Policy of the United Nations (Khan S., 2018). The main obstacles behind the development is
unequal distribution of the resources and poverty alleviation in the nation depends on
proper distribution. This essentially emphasises more 'even distribution' of income and
education, sanitation, employment and other services and resources. Unequal distribution of
wealth affects the overall progress of the nation in several ways, and all of them produce
profound negative effects. One of the most dangerous of these is that less affluent people are
so busy just surviving a country full of heartless people that they have little time to think of
progress and development. A garment factory worker’s children have little hope of avoiding
the fate of becoming garment factory workers themselves in the future. It is simply because
the cost of standard education is well beyond their reach. They can dream of no luxury other
than just sustaining their physical existence in an unfriendly and unsympathetic world.
Garment factory workers are deprived of a just salary because the owners want to pay only
what would keep these unfortunate employees physically able to come back for more work
tomorrow (Eusha M., 2013).
(iv) LACK OF TECHNOLOGY
Technology is important for the development of the country. Education, Health,
Communication, Business, and Administrative everywhere needs technology for the
enhancement of the nation’s skill and efficiency. For example, three in four teachers believe
technology should be made available across the curriculum to support literacy. In health
services system, peoples are getting sufferer for their basic rights. Due to lack of technology,
need more labour for the production, time, as a results the efficiency of the people are getting
worse. Lack of technology, infrastructure main causes of food loss in the country. The Bengal
Delta is facing these problem a severe amount.
(v) MODERN EDUCATION
Bangladesh is a fast-growing, economically dynamic South Asian country. The territory of
this Muslim-majority nation is mostly surrounded by India, although Bangladesh also shares
a 170 mile-long border with Myanmar. This border region is frequently in the news because
of the inflow of some 740,000 Rohingya refugees, more than half of them children, fleeing
armed conflict and genocide in Myanmar’s Rakhine state. Most of the population lives in a
vast river delta adjacent to the Bay of Bengal. These low lying river areas are increasingly
polluted and vulnerable to erosion, frequent floods, and tropical storms. According to the
Bangladeshi government, a quarter of the country gets inundated by flooding every year
while “every 4 to 5 years, there is a severe flood that may cover over 60% of the country and
cause loss of life and damage to infrastructure, housing, agriculture and livelihoods.”
As in many other developing countries, the core issue for education policy makers in
Bangladesh has been to increase access to education and boost educational attainment rates.
Tremendous progress has been made in these areas over the past decades. The net enrolment
ratio in elementary education, for instance, now stands at more than 90 percent compared
with 60 percent in the mid-1980s (per UNESCO data). The adult literacy rate, likewise,
surged from 35 percent in 1991 to 73 percent in 2017 (Stefan Trines, 2019).

Fig. 1.3: GDP per Capita and Educational Attainment in Bangladesh (Stefan Trines, 2019).
Dropout rates are high with nearly 20 percent of pupils not completing elementary school in
2016. At the lower-secondary level, the dropout rate stood at 38 percent in 2017 with fully 42
percent of girls leaving school before completing grade 10, due to factors like poverty and
child marriage. Teacher-to-student ratios, meanwhile, remain well above the official target
ratio of 30:1 (42:1 in secondary schools in 2016) (Fig.1.3).
 (vi) POLITICAL INSTABILITY
In political stability ranking is Bangladesh 172nd position with an index of -1.15. This
indicates that Bangladesh is mostly affected with political instability (Rahman R. Rashid
M.M., 2018). Bangladesh is a developing country. Here, Bangladesh has much scope for
improving the economic condition. But major causes the political instability; political crime;
law and order situations; human rights and good governance. These political instability, good
governance and crime hamper economic growth in many ways (Hagan, 1997). Conflict
between the political parties, inefficiency of local administration in conducting a legal and
transparent election, good governance and corruption in the government levels etc. are main
causes for this political instability (Islam S.N. 2016). And these causes also have some
supporting factors like lack of smooth process of handover of power, lack of spending
in research and education, large income inequality etc. These problems have greater effects
on the political and social factors. Due to political instability, venture has faced a decline in
financial growth, damage to infrastructure; people are being in political conflicts etc.
(Duchesneau and Gartner 1990). These hampering our economic growth than other countries.
Political instability is a curse to the society (Jong-A-Pin, R. 2006). To be developed in
economy, all countries should maintain a stable political situation. In Bangladesh, we faced
the political instability now and then. Every time when there is a change in the Government,
it rises to the top. Therefore, political instability is important for the BDP 2100
implementation.
(vii) LAND SUBSIDENCE
The Ganges—Brahmaputra Delta is one of the most densely populated areas of the world.
The delta occupies most of the Bengal Basin and is slowly subsiding as a result of isostatic
adjustment of the crust due to rise of the Himalayas and dewatering of the Proto-Bengal Fan
sediments which is now buried under thick Mio-Pliocene-Pleistocene deltaic sediments.
Well-log data from northwest of Dhaka indicates that at least a part of the basin is subsiding
at a rate of 2.2 cm/year. Three areas of the basin — the Hatiya Trough, Faridpur Trough and
Sylhet Trough — may be subsiding at similar or higher rates. Engineering projects that do not
consider the subsidence component in planning and designing may produce results
detrimental to the environment (J.D. Milliman and B.U. Haq (eds.), 1996).
(viii) WATER LOGGING
The urban or rural area has been experiencing water logging for the last few years even a
little rain causes a serious problem for certain areas. Increased urban development's not
providing sufficient drainage results in water logging leaving parts of urban area inundated
for several days. The people are suffering from water logging especially who lives from hand
to mouth. Therefore, it is one of the main challenges for the Delta Plan 2100 implementation.
Furthermore, waterlogging is the saturation of soil with water. Soil may be regarded as
waterlogged when it is nearly saturated with water much of the time such that its air phase is
restricted and anaerobic conditions prevail. In extreme cases of prolonged waterlogging,
anaerobiosis occurs, the roots of mesophytes suffer, and the subsurface reducing
atmosphere leads to such processes as denitrification, methanogenesis, and the reduction of
iron and manganese oxides. For example, in the south-western part of Bangladesh are
suffering from water logging.
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
A tide-dominated delta, such as the Bengal Delta is one of the potential delta of the world.
Despite a lot of potentiality, there are many difficulties whereas the Government of
Bangladesh has approved BDP 2100 which is envisioned as a long term integrated and
holistic plan that takes a long term view on water resource management, climate change and
environmental challenges with a view to supporting long term development of Bangladesh.
The opportunities, risks and vulnerabilities emerging from the interface of water, climate
change and environmental issues are long term in nature. The strategies, policies and
programs must also be formulated with a long term perspective. The associated short to
medium term strategies, policies and programs will have implications for long term
developments. As a result, long term planning is complicated by considerable uncertainties.
Water, climate change and environment are heavily influenced by the behaviour of nature
that is not often predictable.
The plan has many challenges. In order to achieve the targets, the plan need transparency,
open access and building up an evidence-based knowledge hub under requires an institutional
set-up that is capable of designing, adjusting, operating, trouble shooting, responding to
feedback for improvements and financially sustaining operations in the long run. Formulation
and approval of BDP 2100 is only the first step towards achieving safe, climate resilient and
prosperous delta. Challenges mainly lie with its successful implementation. The major long
term challenges are: maintaining forest cover to reduce run off, increase water retention
capacity of the soil and vegetation, maintain water sources, springs and waterfalls in the hills,
and environment friendly agricultural practices.
Long term challenges for hotspot from climate change are: sea level rise causing rivers
backing up and blocking receding waters from inundated areas in the dry season which
creates risk of water logging; land reclamation by filling up natural wetlands and water
bodies thus reducing water absorption, storage and flood water holding basins in and around
urban areas; sinking groundwater table because of intensive groundwater abstraction leading
to insufficient supply of freshwater for growing population in urban areas in dry periods;
increasing precipitation with intense and extreme rainfall/storm events and river discharge
creating flash floods in urban areas; increasing effluents and pollution of land and water
bodies leading to contamination of ground and surface water and sources of urban areas; and
increasing strain and stress of city services and disaster risk management institutions, which
will be unable to cope with ever growing in-migration of rural population into urban areas,
increasing water borne diseases, flash flood disasters, and a breakdown of infrastructure and
communications.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors are humbly grateful to Water Resources Planning Organization (WARPO) for
providing support and suggestions from officials to prepare and complete the research.
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