Professional Documents
Culture Documents
ECO Part Five
ECO Part Five
Overview of
Macroeconomics
110
1. Birth of "Macroeconomics"
Free market economy system is based on the forces of supply and
demand with no government interference in the economic life.
Free market economy system sees the economy as some
individual units, and each unit controlled by demand and supply
forces. If there is an economic problem in one of the units inside
the economy, the mechanism of demand and supply is able to
correct it. For instance, if there is a surplus of labor-force in the
labor market, there will be a high unemployment rate in labor
market. This sends a message that the level of wages in the labor
market is too high to clear the market; hence, the level of wages
starts to decline until the high unemployment rate decrease to its
normal rate.
Free market economy system prevailed in the United State of
America and most of European countries till the incidence of
severe worldwide economic downturn in the 1930s, which known
as the “Great Depression” or the “Great Slump”. This economic
depression lasted until the middle of 1940s, and was considered
the longest, deepest, and most widespread depression of the 20 th
century.
The mechanism of demand and supply field to correct the
consequences of the Great Depression, where economic condition
has worsened and unemployment rates climbed to unprecedented
levels.
The bad economic situation required a new economic system to
bring it back to the right track. This economic system deals with
the economy as a one unit rather than individual units, and
government plays a crucial role in combating periodic economic
crises and stimulating long-term economic growth.
111
The new economic system (Macroeconomics) was born at the
hands of John Maynard Keynes, as he tried to understand the
economic mechanism that produced the Great Depression.
The development of Macroeconomics has been one of the major
breakthroughs of 20th century economics, leading to a much better
understanding of real economic life, as it deals with the major
economic issues and problems of the day.
Macroeconomics mainly concerns with two central themes: 1st
short-term fluctuations in output, employment, and price level that
we call "business-cycle"; 2nd long-term trends in output and living
standards known as "economic growth".
2. Macroeconomic Main Goals
Macroeconomics examines the sources of high unemployment and
inflation rates and low (or may be negative) economic growth,
provides possible diagnoses, and finally suggests possible
remedies for such situations.
Macroeconomic main goal remains evaluating the performance of
the economy as a whole, and to identify strengths and weaknesses
in the economic performance. In this context, some economic
indicators may be helpful. On the top of these indicators:
Economic growth rate, unemployment rate, inflation rate and
exchange rate.
A. Economic Growth Rate:
Where the ultimate objective of economic activity is to provide
the goods and services that the population desires, economic
growth is at the first priority for any economy.
Economic growth is the growth of total output (production) of
goods and services in the economy over time.
112
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the term used to express the
total production of goods and services produced inside the
economy. Then economic growth is the change in a country’s
GDP from year to year.
Notice that:
In spite the fact that economic growth refers only to the quantity
produced of goods and services; however, a country’s GDP is
measured in terms of money (value). This is because there are a
variety of goods and services that are produced within the
economy, and these goods and services have different
measurements. So, it is impossible to add these different goods
and services together to get the country’s GDP unless the quantity
produced of these goods and services are converted to values.
GDP is defined as the market value of all goods and services
produced within an economy during a certain period of time.
Economic growth can be either positive or negative. If the
country’s GDP increased from one year to another, the economic
growth will be positive; however, if the country’s GDP decreased
from one year to another, the economic growth will be negative.
Negative growth can be referred to by saying that the economy is
shrinking, and it may be associated with economic recession
because of wars, revolutions or financial crisis.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) versus Gross National
Product (GNP)
The difference between GDP and GNP comes down to two
factors: ownership of factors of production and location of
production.
GDP measures the value of total output based on location of
production. If economic output occurs within the borders of the
country, then it is included in the GDP of this country.
113
GNP, on the other hand, measures the value of total output based
on ownership of factors of production. If the resources that
produce the economic output are owned by a country's citizens
(nationality holders), they are included in the GNP of this country.
3200 - 4000
EGR2010= ×100 =-20%
4000
Notice that:
Calculating economic growth rate using real GDP reflects actual
changes in quantity produced (production in units).
Potential GDP: It is the maximum amount of goods and services
that can be produced within an economy during a year, given its
available resources and level of technology.
When an economy reaches its potential GDP, this means this
economy is an efficient one, as it uses all its available resources
by an efficient way, and there are no idle resources in the
economy.
GDP Gap: It is a difference between potential and actual GDP.
116
B. Unemployment Rate:
Of all the macroeconomic indicators, employment and
unemployment are most directly felt by individuals. People want
to be able to get high-paying jobs without searching or waiting too
long.
To describe someone as unemployed, three conditions must be
available:
1st he must be in the working age (over sixteen and below sixty).
2nd he must be available for work (he must be ready, physically
and mentally, to get a job).
3rd he must be actively seeking work (he is interested in getting a
job).
If all the three conditions are fulfilled, and this person did not
manage to get a job; then he can be described as unemployed.
If the economy is working efficiently, unemployment will be at its
normal or natural rate (5%). However, during periods of recession,
unemployment rates climb to very high rates, where actual GDP
of the economy is lower than its potential GDP.
Notice that:
If the economy is growing slowly relative to its potential, it fails
to generate enough new jobs for its growing labor force, as the
number of job-seekers exceeds the number of available vacancies.
Unemployment is a social and economic problem. It is an
economic problem as it means existence of an idle factor of
production (labor); accordingly, the economy cannot reach its
potential GDP. On the other hand, it is a social problem because
there is a direct relationship between unemployment rate and the
rate of crime inside the economy.
The best known measure of unemployment is the unemployment
rate.
117
Unemployment Rate: It is the percentage of the labor force that
is unemployed.
Unemployment rate = Unemployed People
×100
Total Labor Force
The labor force of a country consists of everyone in working age
(over 16 and below 60) and available (able) for work, even he is
actively employed or seeking employment. So the labor force is
the sum of all employed and unemployed adults.
Types of Unemployment:
• Frictional unemployment: It is unemployment that is due to
normal turnover in the labor market. It includes people who are
temporarily between jobs because they are moving or changing
occupations.
• Structural unemployment: This type of unemployment
affects certain industries and occupations. It refers to workers
who have lost their jobs because of technological changes, as
they have been displaced by automation. It also occurs because
there is a mismatch between the skills of the unemployed
workers and the skills needed for the available jobs.
• Cyclical unemployment: It occurs when there is not enough
aggregate demand in the economy to provide jobs for everyone
who wants and able to work. In this situation, the demand for
most goods and services falls, less production is needed and
consequently fewer workers are needed; and then mass
unemployment results. In other word, cyclical unemployment
is the portion of unemployment that is attributable to a decline
in the economy's total production, and it rises during recessions
and falls as prosperity is restored.
118
• Seasonal unemployment: It arises from seasonal variations in
some economic sectors and activities, such as: tourism and
agriculture.
Notice that:
When economists say that the economy is at full employment,
they mean that there is no cyclical unemployment. However,
frictional, structural and seasonal unemployment can and do exist
when the economy is fully employed.
The normal or natural unemployment rate at full employment is
about 5% to 6%.
Social Security System and Unemployment:
One major reason why developed countries' unemployed workers
no longer experience the complete loss of income during periods
of recessions and financial crisis is the social security system they
have. The two main schemes in this system that were designed to
contain unemployment effects are unemployment insurance and
unemployment benefits.
▪ Unemployment insurance system:
It is a government program that replaces some of the wages lost
by eligible workers who lose their jobs.
The unemployment insurance system is a cushion which is built to
prevent recessions and depression. By giving money to those who
become unemployed, the system helps prop up aggregate demand
during recessions and depressions.
▪ Unemployment Benefits:
Unemployment Benefits are payments made by the state or other
authorized bodies to unemployed people.
Unemployment Benefits spread the costs of unemployment over
the entire population through taxes programs. But it doesn't
119
eliminate the basic economic cost (the missing part of production
because of unemployed labor-force).
This system simply spreads the costs of unemployment among
many people instead of letting all of the costs fall on the shoulders
of a few unfortunate souls.
C. Inflation Rate:
The third macroeconomic objective is to maintain stable prices.
During inflationary periods, people pay higher prices for the same
quantities of goods and services they used to buy before, so more
and more incomes are needed just to maintain the same standard
of living.
Inflation is defined as a continuous increase in the general price
level in an economy.
When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys
fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation is also known as
erosion of the purchasing power of money.
The purchasing power of a given sum of money is the amount of
goods and services that it can buy.
Types of Inflation:
• Creeping Inflation: It is inflation with small and gradual
increase in prices.
• Hyper Inflation: It is inflation with large and accelerating
increase in prices.
Sources of Inflation:
• Demand-Pull Inflation: It arises when aggregate demand in
an economy exceeds aggregate supply. This is commonly
described as "too much money chasing too few goods".
• Cost-Push Inflation: It occurs as a result of substantial
increase in the cost of production due to an increase in the
120
prices of factors of production such as wages, rents and interest
and/or the prices of energy. In addition, the price of foreign
exchange plays an important role in spurring on inflation. In
many instances, hyperinflation is triggered by domestic
currency collapse. The increased price of foreign inputs to
domestic production provides a stimulus to cost-push
inflationary pressures.
Money versus Real Income:
• Money Income: Income measured only in terms of money.
• Real Income: It is the amount of goods and services that the
money income can buy. Real income takes into account
changes in the purchasing power of money due to inflation or
deflation, as it measures income in terms of the amount of
goods and services that it can obtain.
Nominal versus Real Interest Rates:
• Nominal Interest Rate: It refers to the rate of interest before
adjustment for inflation.
• Real Interest Rate: It is approximately the nominal interest
rate minus the inflation rate. It is the rate of interest an investor
expects to receive after subtracting inflation. If inflation rate is
greater than nominal interest rate, then real interest rate will be
a negative rate.
Measuring Inflation:
We can measure inflation by two main ways:
• Consumer Price Index (CPI): It is the most common price
measure. The CPI measures the cost of a basket of goods and
services that consumers typically use through years, and then,
this cost is compared to what it costs in a base period or
previous period.
121
To compute the price index, the cost of the market basket in any
period is divided by the cost of the market basket in the base
period, and the result is multiplied by 100.
122
The price index tries to give in one number a general picture of
what is happening to a great many numbers. As the example
shows, some prices may actually be declining while the price
index is rising. These prices were not ignored by the price index;
rather their contribution was less important to the overall result
than the contribution of items whose prices rose.
1 0 0− 1 0 0
Inflation rate2008= 1 0 0= 0% base year 2008
100
1 1 0− 1 0 0
Inflation rate2009= 1 0 0= 1 0% base year 2008
100
1 2 0− 1 0 0
Inflation rate2010= 1 0 0= 2 0% base year 2008
100
1 2 0− 1 1 0
Inflation rate2010= 1 0 0= 9.1% base year 2009
110
GDP Deflator: In economics, the GDP deflator (implicit price
deflator for GDP) is a measure of the level of prices of all final
goods and services in an economy. Implicit GDP deflator is the
most comprehensive index of the price level because it covers all
goods and services that are produced by the entire economy.
Nominal
GDP Deflator = GDP
100
RealGDP
If implicit deflator is 100%, this means that there is no changes in
the price level relative to the prices of the base year, any
percentage increase over 100% means that the price level
increased by this percentage relative to the price level of the base
year, any percentage decrease below 100% means that the price
level decreased by this percentage relative to the price level of the
base year.
Example: Suppose that nominal GDP for the year 2010 is 4800
and real GDP for the same year is 3200 (measured at year 2009
prices).
123
Calculate GDP deflator then interpret the result you got.
4800
GDP Deflator = 100 = 150%
3200
This implies that the price level has increased by 50% from year
2009 (the base year) to year 2010.
Note that: Dividing the nominal GDP by the GDP deflator and
multiplying it by 100 would then give the figure for real GDP,
hence deflating the nominal GDP into a real measure.
The Good and the Bad with Inflation
In spite inflation has a number of harmful repercussions,
as it decreases real incomes and redistributes incomes in
favor of the rich; however, inflation may stimulate
economic growth for the following reasons:
- Business people usually benefit from inflation, since
product prices tend to rise faster than resource prices. This
increases the business profit and may encourage
businesses to invest more.
- Inflation reduces the real interest rate and real debt
burden for expanding business.
- Because inflation redistributes incomes in favor of the
rich who has relatively higher marginal propensity to
save, the pool of saving tends to increase in the economy.
This increases the chances of high rates of productive
capital formation.
Researches proved that the relationship between inflation
and economic growth is negative in most developing
countries.
124
D. Exchange Rate:
All nations participate in the world economy and are linked
together through trade and finance. So the fourth goal of
macroeconomics is fruitful international trade in goods, services
and capital where exports balance imports and the nation has a
stable exchange rate against other foreign currencies.
Net Exports is the numerical difference between the value of
exports and the value of imports. When exports’ value exceeds
imports’ value, the difference is a surplus, while a negative net
export is a deficit, where imports’ value is greater than exports’
value.
These surpluses and deficits of net exports have considerable
effects on countries local currencies exchange rates.
Exchange rate: It represents the price of a nation's currency in
terms of other nations’ currencies.
• Determinants of the Exchange Rate:
The exchange rate is the value of a unit of its local currency (For
Egypt, the value of the Egyptian pound in terms of other foreign
currencies). If foreigners want to buy more goods, services and
financial assets from a certain country, they have to buy more of
this country’s local currencies. Therefore, when the rest of the
world’s demand for you country’s goods, services and financial
assets increases, the demand for your local currency increases.
The result is that the price of your local currency (its exchange
rate) increases.
Conversely, when your country’s demand for other foreign
countries’ goods, services and financial assets increases, your
country’s citizens have to sell considerable amounts of the local
currency. The supply of your local currency increases, and its
price (exchange rate) falls.
125
By combining these forces of demand and supply, the value of the
currency in question is determined by the exchange rate that
makes the demand for this currency equal its supply. See figure
(1-1)
Figure (1-1)
Flexible Exchange Rate
Currency’ s Price (Exchange Rate)
Supply
E
PE
Demand
QE
Quantity of Currency
126
2. The demand curve has a negative slope: As the Egyptian pound
becomes cheaper, Americans demand more Egyptian pounds.
When the price of the Egyptian pound falls (when it takes
fewer dollars to buy a pound), the Egyptian pound has
depreciated. As a result, the dollar price of the Egyptian
goods, services and capital becomes cheaper.
3. The supply curve is the supply by the Egyptians of pounds in
exchange for American dollars, so they can buy American
goods, services and capital.
4. The supply curve has a positive slope. When the value of the
Egyptian pound goes up (one Egyptian pound trades for more
dollars), the Egyptian pound has appreciated. As the value of
the Egyptian pound rises, Egyptians will buy more American
products and so supply more pounds in exchange for dollars.
5. In equilibrium, the demand and supply of the Egyptian pound
are equal. At this point, the equilibrium exchange rate has
been reached.
Example:
Suppose that, at equilibrium level, one USA dollar worth 6
Egyptian pounds, then one Egyptian pound worth 0.16 dollar
($1/L.E6). At this exchange rate, the amount of Egyptian pounds
demanded and supplies is L.E5000000. At this situation, a $15000
Chevrolet costs L.E90000 ($15000 × 6). If the demand on the
Egyptian goods, services and capital decreased, this will shift the
demand for the Egyptian pound to the left and the Egyptian pound
will be depreciated. Now, one dollar is worth L.E7 (one Egyptian
pound is worth 0.14 dollar). At the new situation, the $15000
Chevrolet costs L.E105000 ($15000 × 7). See figure (1-2).
127
Figure (1-2)
The price of the Egyptian pound in term of USA dollar
Egyptian Pound Exchange Rate
E1
$0.16
E2
$0.14
129
Review Questions
Part One: Essay Questions
(1) If actual GDP of a country grows faster than potential GDP,
what will happen to the unemployment rate in this country?
Explain?
(2) "Unemployment is no longer a social problem for most
developed countries, while it represents a huge social problem for
most developing countries". Comment on this.
Part Two: True or False with a Comment
(1) Real GDP is total value of goods and services produced by an
economy in a year measured at current prices. ( )
(2) Actual GDP is generally lower than potential GDP during
periods of high unemployment. ( )
(3) The CPI measures the price level by considering the prices of a
complete and comprehensive list of goods and services produced
by an economy. ( )
(4) The unemployment rate is the percentage of a nation's
population that is not employed. ( )
(5) The nominal interest rate on a saving deposit is 18%. If
inflation rate is 20%, then the real interest rate on this saving
deposit is 2%. ( )
(6) Frictional unemployment refers to workers who have lost their
jobs because of the industrial revolution. ( )
130
Part Three: Practical Problems
(1) Country “X” produces just three products: apples, T-shirts, and
bicycles. The unit price and production of each product, for three
years, are listed in the table below.
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Products
Price Quantity Price Quantity Price Quantity
apples $1 50 $3 60 $4 70
T-shirts $6 100 $8 140 $7 160
Bicycles $80 90 $100 100 $90 110
a. Calculate nominal GDP for each year.
b. Calculate real GDP for each year. (Use year #1 as a base year)
c. Calculate GDP deflator for each year.
d. Determine the rate of inflation from:
1. year (1) to year (2): …………………………………………
2. year (2) to year (3): …………………………………………
3. year (1) to year (3): …………………………………………
e. Calculate the economic growth rate from:
1. year (1) to year (2): …………………………………………
2. year (2) to year (3): …………………………………………
3. year (1) to year (3): …………………………………………
131
(2) Suppose a representative market basket of weekly
expenditures of families is 10kg of beef, 15kg of chickens, and 3
boxes of cigarettes. The unit prices of these items from year 2008
to 2010 are shown in the following table.
Unit price Unit price Unit price
Items Quantities
2008 2009 2010
Beef 10 20 25 30
Chicken 15 10 12 14
Cigarettes 3 7 7 10
Cost of the market
………… ………… …………
basket
Consumer Price Index ………… ………… …………
a. Fill in the missing parts in the above table.
b. Inflation rate in year 2009 (year 2008 is the base year) is:
………………………………………………………………….
c. Inflation rate in year 2010 (year 2009 is the base year) is:
………………………………………………………………….
d. Inflation rate in year 2010 (year 2008 is the base year) is:
…………………………………………………………………
(3) In year 2010, Country "A" had a population of 5 million
people, just 1 million of country A's population were having a job,
and 600000 people were jobless while they were in working age,
able to work and being desirous of working.
Calculate unemployment rate of country "A" in year 2010.
132