Joywin's Script

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According to Nick Bostrom (2004), there are 4 future scenarios for the Humanity and

Technology:

“Nick Bostrom is a Swedish-Born philosopher at the University of Oxford known for his
work on existential risk, the anthropic principle, human enhancement ethics,
superintelligent risks and reversal test.”

1. The Extinction Scenario


perhaps the least affected by spreading the timeframe of humanity consideration if
humanity goes extinct, it stays extinct. The cumulative probability of extinction increases
monotonically over time.
One argue, that the current century or the next times, will be a critical phase for
humanity, if we make it through this period then the life expectancy of human civilization
could become extremely high. Several possible lines of argument would support this
view.

“Bostrom, who directs Oxford's Future of Humanity Institute, has argued over the
course of several papers that human extinction risks are poorly understood and, worse
still, severely underestimated by society. Some of these existential risks are fairly well
known, especially the natural ones. But others are obscure or even exotic. Most
worrying to Bostrom is the subset of existential risks that arise from human technology,
a subset that he expects to grow in number and potency over the next century.”

2. The Recurrent Collapse Scenario.


becomes progressively unlikely the longer the timescale, for reasons that are apparent
from figure. The scenario assumes that technological civilization will hesitate
continuously within a relatively narrow band of progress.
If there is any chance that a cycle will either break through the post human level
or plummet into extinction, then there is for each period a chance that the oscillation will
end.

Environmental threats seem to have displaced nuclear holocaust as the chief specter
haunting the public imagination. Current-day pessimists about the future often focus on
the environmental problems facing the growing world population, worrying that our
wasteful and polluting ways are unsustainable and potentially ruinous to human
civilization.

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