Energy Convers. Mgmt Vol. 34, No. 9-11, pp. 729-735, 1993 0196-8904/93 $6.00+0.

00
Printed in Great Britain. All rights reserved Copyright © 1993 Pergamon Press Ltd

CO2 AND CLIMATIC CHANGE: AN OVERVIEW OF THE SCIENCE

Irene M Smith

IEA Coal Research, Gemini House,

10-18 Putney Hill, London, SW15 6AA, United Kingdom

ABSTRACT

International policy measures to deal with the enhanced greenhouse effect are being debated on a
scientific basis which is still uncertain. The Intergovemmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has
produced a major scientific assessment of climatic change. They concluded that, despite uncertainties,
the model simulations of a warming due to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases are broadly
consistent with observations of global temperature changes. Carbon dioxide is the most important
greenhouse gas from human activities. Increases in C02 concentrations in the atmosphere contribute
over half of the enhanced greenhouse effect, the rest being mainly due to increases in halocarbons and
methane.

The total effect of greenhouse gas emissions depends on their lifetimes in the atmosphere. The global
warming potential of other greenhouse gases is expressed relative to that of CO2. However, the lifetime
of CO2 in the atmosphere is complicated by uptake into the many carbon storage sinks of the global
carbon cycle. Knowledge of the global carbon cycle is incomplete, the sources exceeding the sum of
known sinks. Reductions in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere could be achieved by reducing
the emissions or enlarging the sinks. What is achieved in future will depend to a large extent on a more
detailed understanding of carbon storage mechanisms.

KEYWORDS

greenhouse gases; climatic change; general circulation models; carbon dioxide; carbon cycle; global
warming potential.

INTRODUCTION

Disposal is an especially difficult aspect of CO2 management. Concern about the enhanced greenhouse
effect and climatic change is driving towards solutions for dealing with CO2 emissions while much of
our understanding of the science is uncertain. It is therefore necessary to view CO2 management in the
context of the whole greenhouse issue, summarising what is known and pointing out the strengths and
weaknesses in available methods to narrow uncertainties.

The Wodd Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme
(UNEP) have been taking a leading role in improving understanding of the greenhouse effect and
climatic change for many years. In 1988, the WMO and UNEP set up the Intergovemmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) which has carried out a major scientific assessment of the issue with a recent
revision (Houghton et al., 1990, 1992). This paper is largely based on the findings of the IPCC
assessment. It examines the state of knowledge on climatic change from the enhanced greenhouse effect

729
730 SMITH: COz AND CLIMATIC CHANGE

and the basis for assessing greenhouse gas emissions. These are aspects which were reviewed at IEA
Coal Research as part of a watching brief on this issue (Smith, 1978, 1982, 1988; Smith and
Thambimuthu, 1991).

CLIMATIC CHANGE

The climate changes as a result of variations to components of the climatic system. Processes in the
atmosphere interact strongly with those on land, on and in the oceans, as well as with the cryosphere
(those parts of the Earth covered with ice) and biosphere. The five components of the coupled
atmosphere-land-ocean-ice-biosphere together form the climatic system. Energy from the sun is the
driving force for climate. The solar radiation absorbed by the Earth varies with fluctuations in solar
energy, the earth's orbit about the sun, changes in the albedo (reflectivity) of the earth's surface and
interception by aerosols (particles) in the atmosphere. The greenhouse effect modulates the amount of
terrestrial radiation which is lost to space. This maintains the surface temperature of the earth at 15°C,
rather than at -18°C which would be the temperature in the absence of the greenhouse effect
(Houghton et al., 1990).

The most important greenhouse gas is water vapour. Its concentration in the atmosphere is not
influenced significantly by direct emissions due to human activities. However, water vapour amplifies
any warming of the atmosphere. This is because the atmosphere holds more water vapour as it warms.
The key greenhouse gases which are influenced by human activities are summarised in Tal:le 1. Carbon
dioxide contributes the highest proportion of the greenhouse effect, due mainly to its higher
concentration in the atmosphere, followed by chlorofluorocarbons (CFC) which are very strong
greenhouse gases but are present in low concentrations. Emissions of CO2, CFC, methane and nitrous
oxide are the main contributors to the enhanced greenhouse effect from human activities. Complex
photochemical reactions involving several pollutants lead to formation of ozone in the troposphere
(lower atmosphere). Its contribution to the greenhouse effect may be significant but cannot be
quantified globally at present.

Ozone depletion in the stratosphere is considered to have the opposite effect, counterbalancing the
greenhouse effect of increased concentrations of CFC over the last decade. Sulphur emissions lead to
formation of sulphate aerosols which also have a cooling effect - directly by reflecting solar radiation
and indirectly by cloud formation (Charlson et al., 1992; Fouquart and Isaka, 1992; Isal~en et al.,
1992). However, the much shorter residence time of sulphate aerosols compared with most greenhouse
gases means that this effect is concentrated closer to emission sources. By contrast the effect of C 0 2
operates globally because it is long-lived and mixes throughout the atmosphere. More than 90% of
industrial SO2 is emitted in the Northern Hemisphere. This might explain differences in the temperature
records between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres (Wigley, 1991).

Table 1 Concentrations and effects of additional greenhouse gases in the atmosphere

(Houghton et al., 1990; Shine et al., 1990; Watson et al., 1990)

Gas Concentration, ppmv Rate of Greenhouse effect

pre- 1990 increase, %/y %, in the 1980s
industrial

CO2 280 353 -0.5 55

CH4 0.8 1.72 0.9 15
N20 0.288 0.31 0.25 6
CFC- 11 0 0.00028 ~4 24*
CFC-12 0 0.000484 ~4
100
* total CFC
 SMITH: CO2 AND CLIMATIC CHANGE 731

Climatic change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect is studied by means of models. Ideally, all the
factors at work in the climatic system need to be included in climatic models. General circulation
models (GCM) are time-dependent, three-dimensional, atmospheric models which include processes at
the surface of the land, oceans or ice cover and in the lower atmosphere. They axe used to study
climatic change from doubling the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere and allowing the system to
reach equilibrium. However, the climate cannot reach an equilibrium as long as greenhouse gas
concentrations are increasing. A more complete representation of the global climate must include heat
transport in the oceans. This takes into account the effect of the thermal capacity of the oceans in
delaying the observed climatic response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Progress has been
made recently towards using coupled ocean-atmosphere global climatic models to simulate transient
changes (Bretherton et al., 1990; Gates et al., 1990, 1992; Mitchell et al., 1990).

The results of three different coupled ocean-atmospbere GCM experiments with doubled CO2
concentration are shown in Table 2. The effect of the oceans is to delay the response to increased CO2
concentrations. Hence, the transient simulations give values for a greenhouse warming which are about
60% of the equilibrium warming using simple, mixed layer oceans with the same models.

Results of models using more detailed cloud processes have given lower values for the warming of the
surface air temperature (Cubaseh and Cess, 1990). Uncertainties remain, particularly as regards the
combined effect of cloud and surface albedo feedback. The IPCC (Gates et aL, 1992) concluded that
modelling studies indicated that the increase in global mean surface temperature due to doubling CO2 in
the atmosphere was unlikely to lie outside the range 1.5-4.5°C.

Effects of an increase in the global surface temperature from doubling the concentration of CO2 in the
atmosphere are projected to be a rise in sea level of 0.2-0.5 m due to thermal expansion and a 3-15%
increase in global precipitation and evaporation (Cubasch and Cess, 1990).

Table 2 Results of doubling the CO2 concentration from coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM
(Gates et al., 1992)

GFDL MPI UKMO

Control CO2, ppmv 300 390* 323

CO2 doubling (2 x CO2), year 2060 2050 2060
Transient warming (2 x CO2), °C 2.3 1.3 1.7
Equilibrium warming (2 x CO2), °C 4.0 2.6 2.7

GFDL GeophysicalFluid DynamicsLaboratory

MPI Max-Planck-Inst.for Meteorology
UKMO United KingdomMeteorologicalOffice

* includes equivalentC02 for other greenhousegases

Studies of observed trends over the past century (Folland et al., 1992; Warrick and Oedemans, 1990)
show a consistency with model results. There appears to have been an increase in the global, mean
surface temperature of 0.3-0.6°C accompanied by an average rise in sea level of 0.1-0.2 m. An
increase in global precipitation and evaporation is not yet proven.

Comparisons between simulated and observed past temperature trends (Schlesinger and Ramankutty,
1992; Kelly and Wigley, 1992) reach a good agreement when variations in solar radiation and
greenhouse gases are included with sulphate cooling. However, most of the recent warming trend is
accounted for by the enhanced greenhouse effect. The inclusion of solar variations implies there is less
warming due to the greenhouse gases whereas the cooling from sulphates implies a greater warming
contribution from the greenhouse gases than that observed.
732 SMITH: CO2 AND CLIMATIC CHANGE

CONTRIBUTIONS FROM GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

It is important to establish a good link between emissions and their effects in order to make value
judgements on how best to limit the effects. Current methods of calculation are limited by inadequacies
in our understanding of the science.

The relative contributions (%) of trace gases to the greenhouse effect may be estimated from an
increase in the concentration of each gas in the atmosphere. The effect of each gas is expressed in terms
of the equivalent CO2 concentration. The concept of relative global warming potentials takes account of
the differing times that gases remain in the atmosphere, their greenhouse effect whilst in the atmosphere
and the time period over which climatic changes are of concern (Shine et al., 1990; Isaksen et al., 1992
include a detailed discussion). There are difficulties in determining realistic global warming potentials,
mainly due to indirect effects of emissions which need to he quantified in addition to the direct effects
of greenhouse gas emissions.

The indirect effects of CH4 emissions (the production of CO2, stratospheric water vapour and
tropospheric 03 from CH4 oxidation) are potentially significant but difficult to quantify. This applies
also to the indirect effects from other trace gases: CO, NOx and non-methane hydrocarbons. The IPCC
acknowledge that their quantification of the indirect effects needs further revision and evaluation and
does not include some important chemical reactions (Shine et aL, 1990). Also, the indirect effects vary
spatially as well as with time (Victor, 1990). Hence a single global warming potential is not applicable
to emissions in different regions. In its revision, the IPCC (Isaksen et al., 1992) does not attempt to
quantify indirect effects but includes their sign (see Table 3). Additionally, the indirect effect of NOx is
uncertain in sign. It is noted in the revision that the concept of a global warming potential for CO, NOx
and non-methane hydrocarbons may prove inapplicable.

Table 3 Global warming potentials (by weight) relative to that of CO2 over different time
horizons (Shine et aL, 1990; Isaksen et al., 1992)

a) IPCC 1990 assessment

Trace gas Estimated Integration time horizon, y

lifetime, y 20 100 500

Carbon dioxide ~ 120 1 1 1

Methane - inc indirect 10 63 21 9
Nitrous oxide 150 270 290 190
CFC-11 60 4500 3500 1500
CFC-12 130 7100 7300 4500

b) IPCC 1992 assessment

Trace gas Estimated Integration time horizon, y Sign of 'indirect' effect

lifetime, y 20 100 500

Carbon dioxide ~ 120 1 1 1 none

Methane - direct only 10.5 35 11 4 positive
Nitrous oxide 132 260 270 170 uncertain
CFC- 11 55 4500 3400 1400 negative
CFC-12 116 7100 7100 4100 negative
 SMITH: CO2 AND CLIMATIC CHANGE 733

Further mr,ettainties arise from relating the effect of greenhouse gases to that of CO2 as the reference
gas (see Table 3). The concentration of most greenlaouse gases in the atmosphere declines exponentially
with time; that of CO2 declines non-exponentially, fast over the first 10 year period, more gradually
over the next 100 years and rather slowly over the thousand year time-scale. This is because CO2 is
taken up from the atmosphere on vatting time scales into different carbon storage sinks in vegetation,
soils and the deep oceans. The IPCC used a carbon cycle model involving only an oceanic sink to
describe CO2 uptake. The approximate lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere is then about 120 years
within a possible range of 50-200 years (Watson and others, 1990, 1992). Use of a carbon cycle model
with only an ocean sink is likely to overestimate concentrations of CO2 resulting in an underestimate of
global warming potentials of other greenhouse gases. Increased concentrations of CO2 in the
atmosphere in future would also result in higher global warming potentials for other greenhouse gases
than the values in Table 3 0saksen et al., 1992).

There ate uncertainties in accounting for all the CO2 emissions which do not remain in the atmosphere.
The carbon cycle is not balanced, the sources exceeding the known sinks (see Table 4). Several carbon
removal processes have been proposed to balance the carbon budget. Enhanced photosynthesis from
increased CO2 concentrations and forest regrowth in temperate latitudes of the northern hemisphere
appear to be the major sink (Tans et aL, 1990; Sedjo, 1992; Takahashi et al., 1992; Watson et aL,
1992). Additionally, there are actual and potential sinks in tropical forests and saline lands, Coastal
systems have a high rate of carbon uptake which has not been accounted for in models (Wisniewski and
Lugo, 1992). Transport of carbon to (Sarmiento and Sundquist, 1992), and within (Broecker and Peng,
1992) the oceans may also be removing the excess carbon from industrial emissions.

Table 4 Sources and sinks in the global carbon cycle in 1990 (Watson et al., 1992)

Carbon, GtC/y

Sources
industrial emissions 5.5 - 6.5
Emissions from land use changes 1.1 - 3.6

Total sources 6.6 - 10.1

Sinks
Accumulation in the atmosphere 3.8
Uptake by the ocean 1.2 - 2.8

Total sinks 5 6.6

Net imbalance 1.6 - 3.5

CONCLUSIONS

Increases in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere contribute over half of the enhanced
greenhouse effect, followed by CFC, methane, and nitrous oxide. There is also an indirect contribution
from photochemical reactions involving several trace gases which cannot be quantified globally at
presenL Ozone depletion in the stratosphere and sulphur emissions have a cooling effect. This helps to
explain the observed temperature trend.

Results of climatic model studies indicate that the increase in global mean surface temperature due to a
doubling of the CO2 concentration is unlikely to lie outside the range of 1.5-4.5°C. Models using more
detailed cloud processes have given lower values for the warming but uncertainties remain. The thermal
inertia of the oceans slows the warming.
734 SMITH: CO2 AND CLIMATIC CHANGE

Oarrently, the best available means of evaluating policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions uses the
concept of the global warming potential of each greenhouse gas relative to that of CO2, integrated over
different time horizons. This exercise is however complicated by indirect effects from some, as yet,
unquantifiable chemical reactions and by uncertainties regarding the effective residence time of CO2 in
the atmosphere,

An improved understanding of the global carbon cycle would point the way forward to a better
management of CO2 emissions and carbon reservoirs for CO2 disposal.

REFERENCES

Bretherton, F.P., K Bryan., J.D Woods (1990). Time-dependent greenhouse-gas-induced climate

change. In: Climate change: the IPCC scientific assessment. (J.T. Houghton, G.J. Jenkins, J.J.
Ephraums, eds.), pp 173-193 Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Broecker, W.S., T-H. Peng (1992). Interhemispheric transport of carbon dioxide by ocean circulation.
Nature; 356 (6370); 587-589.

Charlson, RJ., S.E. Schwartz, J.M. Hales, R.D. Cess, J.A. Coakley JR, J.E. Hansen,
DJ. Hofmanu (1992). Climate forcing lPYanthropogenic aerosols. Science; 255 (5043); 423-430.

Cubaseh, U., R.D. Cess (1990). Processes and modelling.In: Climate change: the IPCC scientific assessment.
(J.T. Houghton, G.J. Jenkins, J.J. Ephraums, ed~). pp. 69-91. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Folland, C.K., T.IL Karl, B.S. Nicholls, B.S. Nyenzi, D.E. Parker, K.Ya. Vinnikov (1992).
Observed climate variability and change. In: Climate change: the supplementary report to the IPCC
scientific assessment. (J.T. Houghton, G.J. Jenkins, J.J. Ephmums, eds.), pp. 135-170, Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Fouquart, Y., H. Isaka (1992). Sulfur emission, CCN, clouds and climate: a review. Ann.
Geophysicae; 10; 462-471.

Gates, W.L., P,R. Rowntree, Q-C Zeng (1990). Validation of climate models. In: Climate change: the
IPCC scientific assessment. (J. T. Houghton, G. J. Jenkins, J. J. Ephmums, cds.), pp. 93-130,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Gates, W.L., J.F.B. Mitchell, G.J. Boer, U. Cubasch, V.P. Meleshko (1992). Climate modelling,
climate prediction and model validation. In: Climate change: the supplementary report to the IPCC
scientific assessment. (J. T. Houghton, G. J. Jenkins, J. J. Ephraums, eds.), pp. 97-134, Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Houghton, J.T., GJ. Jenkins, J.J. Ephraums (1990). Climate change: the IPCC scientific
assessment, pp. 414, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Houghton, J.T., B.A. Callander, S.K. Varney (1992). Climate change 1992: the supplementary report
to the IPCC scientific assessmenL pp. 212, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Isaksen, I.S.A., V. Ramaswamy, H. Rodhe, T.M.L. Wigley (1992). Radiative forcing of climate. In:
Climate change: the supplementary report to the IPCC scientific assessment. (J. T. Houghton, G.J.
Jenkins, J.J. Ephraums, eds.), pp. 47-67, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Kelly, P.M., T.M.L. Wigley (1992). Solar cycle length, greenhouse forcing and global climate.
Nature; 360 (6402); 328-330.
 SMITH: CO2 AND CLIMATIC CHANGE 735

Mitchell, J.F.B., S. Manabe, V. Meleshko, T. Tokioka (1990). Equilibrium climate change - and its
implications for the future. In: Climate change: the IPCC scientific assessment. (J. T. Houghton, G.
J. Jenkins, J. J. Ephraums, eds.), pp. 131-172, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Sarmiento, J.L., E.T. Sundquist (1992). Revised budget for the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic
carbon dioxide. Nature; 356 (6370); 589-593.

Schlesinger, M.E., N. Ramankutty (1992). Implications for global warming of intercycle solar
irradiance variations. Nature; 360 (6402); 330-333.

Sedjo, R.A. (1992). Temperate forest ecosystems in the global carbon cycle. Ambio; 21 (4); 274-277.

Shine, K.P., ILG. Derwent, D.J. Wuebbles, J.J. Morcrette (1990). Radiative forcing of climate. In:
Climate change: the IPCC scientific assessment. (J.T. Houghton, G. J. Jenkins, J. J. Ephraums, eds.).
pp. 41-68, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Smith, LM. (1978). Carbon dioxide and the 'greenhouse" effect - an unresolved problem. ICTIS/ER
01, pp. 40, IEA Coal Research, London, UK.

Smith, I.M. (1982). Carbon dioxide - emissions and effects. ICTIS/TR 18, pp. 132, lEA Coal
Research, London, UK.

Smith, I.M. (1988). C02 and climate change. IEACR/07, pp. 52, IEA Coal Research, London, UK.

Smith, LM., K.V. Thambimuthu (1991). Greenhouse gases, abatement and control: the role of coal.
IEACR/39, pp. 88, IEA Coal Research, London, UK.

Takahashi, T., P.P. Tans, I. Fung (1992). Balancing the budget. Carbon dioxide sources and sinks,
and the effects of industry. Oceanus; 1 (spring); 18-28.

Tans, P.P., I. Y. Fung, T. Takahashi (1990). Observational constraints on the global atmospheric CO2
budget. Science; 247 (4949); 1431-1438.

Victor, D.G. (1990). Calculating greenhouse budgets. Nature; 347 (6292); 410,431.

Warrick, R., J. Oerlemans (1990). Sea level rise. In: Climate change: the IPCC scientific assessment.
(J.T. Houghton, G.J. Jenkins, J.J. Ephraums, eds.), pp. 257-281, Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, UK.

Watson, R.T., H. Rodhe, H. Oeschger, U. Siegenthaler (1990). Greenhouse gases and aerosols. In:
Climate change: the IPCC scientific assessment. (J. T. Houghton, G. J. Jenkins, J.J. Ephraums, eds.).
pp. 1-40, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Watson, ILT., L.G. Meira Filho, E. Sanhueza, A. Janetos (1992). Greenhouse gases: sources and
sinks. In: Climate change: the supplementary report to the IPCC scientific assessment.
(J.T. Houghton, G.J. Jenkins, J.J. Ephraums, cds.), pp. 23-45, Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, UK.

Wigley, T.M.L. (1991). Could reducing fossil-fuel emissions cause global warming? Nature; 349
(6309); 503-506.

Wisniewski, J., A.E. Lugo (1992). Natural sitdcs of C02. Workshop statement. Palmas Del Mar, Puerto
Rico, 24-27 Feb 1992. 6 pp.