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  • SampP 500 Update Expect A Pullback Before Rally To 4300 Starts

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    Nam Nguyen
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    The document summarizes the recent performance of the S&P 500 index and provides an outlook for its near-term trajectory. It notes that the index has risen over 5.8% since bottoming near the target zone of $3725-3755 in late December. The analysis expects a short-term pullback in the index, ideally to around $3875, before it resumes its rally toward $4300 over the coming weeks. This anticipated pattern would be consistent with the Elliott Wave Principle that the index has followed. Unless the index breaks below its December low, the outlook sees the expected near-term correction as a buying opportunity.

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    In.investing.com-SampP 500 Update Expect a Pullback Before Rally to 4300 Starts

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    The document summarizes the recent performance of the S&P 500 index and provides an outlook for its near-term trajectory. It notes that the index has risen over 5.8% since bottoming near the target zone of $3725-3755 in late December. The analysis expects a short-term pullback in the index, ideally to around $3875, before it resumes its rally toward $4300 over the coming weeks. This anticipated pattern would be consistent with the Elliott Wave Principle that the index has followed. Unless the index breaks below its December low, the outlook sees the expected near-term correction as a buying opportunity.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    11 views3 pages

    SampP 500 Update Expect A Pullback Before Rally To 4300 Starts

    Uploaded by

    Nam Nguyen
    The document summarizes the recent performance of the S&P 500 index and provides an outlook for its near-term trajectory. It notes that the index has risen over 5.8% since bottoming near the target zone of $3725-3755 in late December. The analysis expects a short-term pullback in the index, ideally to around $3875, before it resumes its rally toward $4300 over the coming weeks. This anticipated pattern would be consistent with the Elliott Wave Principle that the index has followed. Unless the index breaks below its December low, the outlook sees the expected near-term correction as a buying opportunity.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
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    of 3

    S&P 500 Update: Expect a Pullback Before Rally to

    4300+ Starts
    in.investing.com/analysis/sp-500-update-expect-a-pullback-before-rally-to-4300-starts-200559863

    Dr. Arnout ter Schure


    http://www.intelligentinvesting.market

    Happy New Year, everyone. The "Santa Rally" I mentioned in my last update on
    December 22, 2022 (see here) gave us an +0.80% return. When the index finishes the
    first five trading days of a year higher, it has been positive more than 80% of the time at
    year-end with an average gain of about 13%, according to Stock Trader's Almanac. It was
    up 1.3% on January 9. Thus, 2023 is off to a good start.

    Besides, in our last update, we were looking for the S&P 500
    (SPX) to bottom in the
    "green W-5 … ideal target zone of $3725-3755." As per the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP),
    our primary expectation has been for many weeks

    "Once the $3800+/-70 zone is reached, …, we must entertain the notion all of black W-b has
    already bottomed out. The index will have to move below $3635 (the 76.40% retrace of the
    October 13 - December 1 rally), with the first warning below $3725, to start to suggest
    there will not be a more significant C-wave rally to $4300+."

    The SPX bottomed at $3764 on the day of our update, only 0.2% (9p) from our ideal
    target zone. Currently, it trades at $3996. An over 220p, 5.8%, gain in three weeks.

    Moreover, it has rallied in what counts best as five waves higher. See Figure 1 below.
    Alternatively, the current rally from the December 22 low is still only in green W-3.

    1/3
    Since C waves consist of five smaller waves, the current rally should only be red W-i of
    black W-c of blue W-B. As such, we anticipate a red W-ii soon, ideally down to
    $3875+/-25, before the red W-iii to ideally $4275+/-50 kicks in. See the red dotted
    arrows as our anticipated path in Figure 1.

    Thus, our conclusion from before the Holidays, "When combining these facts
    [seasonality, Santa Rally] with the EWP count, we have been tracking over the last few
    weeks; it is prudent to conclude that a sustained bottom could be close." was correct. And
    unless the index breaks back below the December 22 low, with a first warning below
    $3850, there is no reason for this pattern not to unfold, and the following multi-day
    correction should be considered a low-risk buying opportunity.

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