Borromeo, Jett B.

140571
Journal Article Reporting - A system dynamics approach to scenario analysis for
urban passenger transport energy consumption and CO2 emissions: A case study of
Beijing

Research Objective
The objective of the research by Liu et The creation of a Beijing urban transport
carbon model using system dynamics.
The effect of different policies on energy conservation and emission reductions.
The cumulative effect of different individual policies.
The optimal sequence of individual policy implementation in comprehensive policy.

Relation to Sustainability Issue

System Dynamics Modeling Application

Methods
System Dynamics (SD) was the method that was used by the research despite other
methods such as top-down method, bottom-up method and hybrid methods. SD
uses system synthesis reasoning and is able to combine quantitative and qualitative
analysis (Liu et al, 2015).
Therefore, the SD used in the research was to build a Beijing urban passenger
transport carbon model (BUPTCM) by using Vensim. Vensim has the capability to do
causal tracing of structure, Monte Carlo sensitivity, optimization and sub-scripting
capabilities and would create the basis for the analysis of the variables (Liu et al,
2015).
Models
Casual Loop Diagram (CLD)
A CLD (Annex A) was built by the researchers to analyze the variables of Beijing’s
urban passenger transport system and the CO2 emissions from the energy
consumption in this system. The CLD was also to be used to identify the relation
between each variable (Liu et al, 2015).
Flow Diagram (FD)
A FD was built to further analyze the variables to study the accumulated reactions for
different variables. Variables were labeled as follows:
Level variable (L) = cumulative effect of the system which can react to the
accumulation of material, energy and information over time.
Rare variable (R) = speed of the system’s cumulative effect and reflects the changes
of L over time.
Auxiliary variables (A) = intermediate variables
(Liu et al, 2015)
Inputs and Data
Data of Bejing’s urban passenger transport energy consumption and CO2 emissions
from 2002 to 2020 was used in the analysis (Liu et al, 2015).
Assumption
The following assumptions were taken into account in the model:
Assumption Remarks
1 Economy subsystem GDP growth rate, GDP per capita
2 Population subsystem Resident population growth
3 Transport subsystem Trip volume and hurdles (e.g. increase bus level
service can lower trip volume for cars, etc)
4 Energy consumption and Vehicle population, vehicle kilometers travelled
emissions subsystem (VKT), and fuel economy/emission rates
(Liu et al, 2015)
Simulations
The following scenarios were simulated for the purposes of the research:
Scenario Description
1 Business as usual (BAU) Current situation without any additional policies
scenario

2 Priority to the development Enhancing the attractiveness of public transport

of public transport (PDPT) and travel structure further optimized
scenario

3 Travel demand management Establishing policies that would lessen reduce

(TDM) scenario car use (e.g. multi-use facilities to reduce trip
volumes, encourage residents to public
transport, etc)
4 Technical progress (TP) Using technology to lessen emissions / retiring
scenario high emission vehicles

5 Administrative rules and Establishing policies that would limit car

regulations management purchase and use
(ARM) scenario

6 Comprehensive policy (CP) Integration of the 4 scenarios above

scenario

(Liu et al, 2015)

Annex B outlines the concrete measure in each scenario
Takeaways from the Study
Insights Derived from the Study
Usefulness of SD Approach
Limitation and Caveats

Other Scenarios the same approach or model structure can be applied

References
Annex
Annex A

(Liu et al, 2015)

Annex B