Risk Analysis

Environmental Engineering
• The main aim of Environmental Engineering is

• decrease the risks from hazard from environmental

pollution

• Decrease the effect on the environment

• Reduce the effect on the public health

• Estimate or project future risks

Risk factor conditions
‫دەرﮐەوﺗﻦ‬

• Risk factor occurs before appearance the adverse effect

• There are a strength connect between risk factor and the

‫ﺧﺮاﭘﯽ‬
adverse effect

• The functional relationship need not be linear

• The adverse effect greater than of the risk factor

ASSESSMENT OF RISK
• Identification of a substance
‫دهرﺧﺳﺗن‬

• Scenarios for exposure to the toxicant

• Characterization of health effects

• An estimate of the probability (risk) of occurrence of these

health effects
Risk Assessment
PROBABILITY
• probability is a statistics text

• Probability is often confused with frequency

‫ﺧﮫﻣ�ﻧدن‬

• frequencies are used to estimate probabilities in risk assessment

• probability is a dimensionless number

• A probability of 1 means that the event has a 100% chance of occurring

Example
• The average truck accident frequency in the United States is 3.5 ∗
10−7 accidents per truck-kilometer, 20,000 truck shipments of hazardous
materials per year for 10 years, and the average distance traveled is 1000 km
per shipmen. Find accident truck shipments through twenty years.
Solution
20 * 0.00000035 * 20000 * 1000 = 140 accidents, what is meaning
• Probablity, There are 140 accident in 20 years
• 7 accidents per year
• average frequency of accidents
DOSE-RESPONSE EVALUATION
• Concentration of pollutants and characterizing a health effect

• The response of an organism to a pollutant depends of he

amount or dose
•.
• Dose depends on the exposure pathway
‫ھﮫڵﻣژراو‬

• it is inhaled, ingested, or absorbed through the skin

Dose-response curves
• The relationship
between the dose of a
pollutant and the
organism’s response
• concentrations of
carbon monoxide,
• plotted against the
associated blood
concentrations of
carboxylate hemoglobin
Dose-response curves
• Threshold
• The effect of Dose-response
• Total Body Burden (Load)
• An organism can be exposed to several different sources of pollutant per day
• For example we may inhale about 50 pg/day of lead from air and ingest about 300
pg/day in food and water
• Physiological Half-life
• is the time needed for the organism to eliminate half of the internal concentration of
the pollutant
• Bio-accumulation and Bio-concentration
• The substance is concentrated in one organ for example concentration of
Iodine in the thyroid gland
Pollution control criteria for which an engineer designs must take both bio-concentration and bioaccumulation into account
Dose-response curves
• Exposure Tim and Time vs Dosage.
• Most pollutants need time to react

• Synergism.
• occurs when two or more substances enhance each other’s
effects
EXPOSURE AND LATENCY
• some health risks can take a very long time

• Many cancers grow very slowly and take many years

• This called carcinogen

• latency period is exposure to a risk factor and expression of the

adverse effect

• For example; Cancers in adults have apparent latency periods of

between 10 and 40 years
EXPRESSION OF RISK (epidemiology )
• Epidemiology is the study and analysis of the distribution, patterns and
determinants of health and disease conditions in defined populations

• Matrix of Risk Assessment ‫ﺋﺎﺷﮑرا ﮐراوە‬

• The relative risk is defined as

• If the result is 1.0, So the disease would not depend on an individual

had been exposed to the risk factor
• Above 1.0, the higher the relative risk So there is an association
between exposure and risk
EXPRESSION OF RISK

• The attributable risk is defined as

• The attributable risk is the difference between the probability of

having the disease with exposure and the probability of having the
disease without exposure
• An attributable risk of 0.0 mean that there is no relationship between
exposure and risk
EXPRESSION OF RISK
• The odds ratio is defined as the cross product of the entries in the
matrix

• The odds ratio is similar to the relative risk.

 Example_1
• An evaluation of personnel records for employees of a plant
that manufactures vinyl chloride finds that out of 200 workers,
15 developed liver cancers control group consisting of
individuals with smoking histories similar to the exposed
workers, and who were unlikely to have encountered vinyl
chloride, had 24 with liver cancers and 450 who did not develop
liver cancer. Find the relative risk, attributable risk, and odds
ratio for these data. relative risk,= 1.378
odds = 1.41

attributable risk,=0.01913
 Potency Factor for Carcinogens

• When we have the value of PF, could

write the Formula in

• So, we need to find CDI from the formula

Example of Potency Factor for Carcinogens
• Risk Assessment for Chloroform in Drinking Water
• When drinking water is disinfected with chlorine, an undesired
byproduct, chloroform CHCL3 may be formed. Suppose a 70-kg person
drinks 2L of water every day for 70 years with a chloroform concentration
of 0.10 mg/L (the drinking water standard).
a. Find the upper-bound cancer risk for this individual.
b. If a city with 500,000 people in it also drinks the same amount of this
water, how many extra cancers per year would be expected? Assume the
standard 70-year lifetime.
estimate the concentration of a contaminant
in drinking water
• Example
• Find the concentration of chloroform in drinking water that would
result in a 10−6 risk for a 70-kg person who drinks 2 L/day throughout
his or her entire lifetime.
• the contaminant is in drinking water, the CDI can be expressed as

• Concentration refers to the contaminant concentration

• Intake rate is the amount of water ingested each day
• Exposure is the number of days in a lifetime that the person drinks
contaminated water
• If the exposure route is inhalation of a contaminant

• Concentration is the contaminant concentration in air

• Intake rate is the amount of air inhaled during each day that the
person is exposed to the contamination.
Example
• Estimate the incremental cancer risk for a 60-kg worker exposed
to a particular carcinogen under the following circumstances.
Exposure time is 5 days per week, 50 weeks per year, over a 25-
year period of time. The worker is assumed to breathe 20𝑚3 of
air per day. The carcinogen has a potency factor of
𝑚𝑔 −1
0.02 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑑𝑎𝑦 and its average concentration is 0.05 𝑚𝑔/𝑚3 .
𝑘𝑔

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