Market Briefing:

Currencies
Yardeni Research, Inc.

January 18, 2023

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683
eyardeni@yardeni.com

Mali Quintana
480-664-1333
aquintana@yardeni.com

Please visit our sites at

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thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
Trade-Weighted Dollar 1
Euro & Pound 2
Swiss Franc & Krona 3
Yen & Won 4
Canadian & Australian Dollars 5
Real & Peso 6
Rupee & Rupiah 7
Ringitt & Yuan 8
Baht & Pesos 9
Lira & Ruble 10
Peso 11
Rand & Hryvnia 12
Misc. Exchange Rates 13-14

January 18, 2023 / Currencies Yardeni Research, Inc.

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 Trade-Weighted Dollar
Figure 1.
145 145
US TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR:
140 JP MORGAN BROAD EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE 140
(2010=100, daily)
135 135

130 130
1/18
125 125

120 120

115 115

110 110

105 105

100 100

95 95

90 90
yardeni.com
85 85
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong,
Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,
Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom,
Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States.
Source: JP Morgan.
Figure 2.
160 160
155
FED’S TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEXES 155
(daily)
150 150
145 Major* 145
(3/73=100)
140 140
135 Broad** 135
130 (1/97=100) 130
12/31
125 125
120 120
115 115
110 110
105 105
100 100
95 95
90 12/31 90
85 85
80 80
75 75
70 70
65 65
yardeni.com
60 60
73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

* Major index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange rates of the US dollar against the Euro Area, Australia, Canada, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland,
United Kingdom,
** Broad index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange rates of the US dollar against the Euro Area, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China,
Colombia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Spain, Saudi Arabia,
Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, United Kingdom, and Venezuela. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Page 1 / January 18, 2023 / Currencies Yardeni Research, Inc.

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 Euro & Pound
Figure 3.
1.75 1.75
EUROZONE: US$/EURO

1.60 1.60

NIRP Ukraine
War
1.45 APP- 1.45
D APP APP+ Forever

1.30 1.30
QT

1.15 1.15

Euro (1.08) 1/18

1.00 PEPP 1.00

PEPP+
.85 .85

yardeni.com
.70 .70
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

D = ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro (7/26/12). NIRP = negative interest-rate policy (6/5/2014).
APP (1/22/15). APP+ = expansion and extension of APP (3/10/16, corporate bond purchases started 6/1/16). QT (12/31/18). APP-Forever (11/1/19)
20 billion euros per month. PEPP (3/18/20) 750 billion euros open-ended asset purchases. PEPP+ (6/4/20) expanded by 600 billion euros.
200-day moving average. Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 4.
2.2 2.2
UK: US$/POUND
2.1 2.1

2.0 2.0

1.9 1.9

1.8 1.8

1.7 1.7

1.6 1.6

1.5 1.5

1.4 1.4

1.3 1.3
1/18
1.2 1.2

1.1 1.1
yardeni.com
1.0 1.0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

200-day moving average

Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 2 / January 18, 2023 / Currencies Yardeni Research, Inc.

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 Swiss Franc & Krona
Figure 5.
.6 .6
SWITZERLAND: SWISS FRANC/$
.7 (inverted scale) .7

.8 .8

.9 .9
4/27
1.0 1.0

1.1 1.1

1.2 1.2

1.3 1.3

1.4 1.4

1.5 Swiss Franc (0.97) 1.5

1.6 1.6

1.7 1.7

1.8 1.8

1.9 1.9
yardeni.com
2.0 2.0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

200-day moving average

Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 6.
5.5 5.5
SWEDEN: KRONA/$
(inverted scale)

6.5 6.5

7.5 7.5

8.5 8.5

9.5 9.5
4/27

Krona (9.84)
10.5 10.5

yardeni.com
11.5 11.5
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 3 / January 18, 2023 / Currencies Yardeni Research, Inc.

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 Yen & Won
Figure 7.
60 60
JAPAN: YEN/US$
(inverted scale) A

QQE QQEE
Z
80 Yen (128.92) NIRP 80

YC

100 100

120 120

1/18

140 140

yardeni.com
160 160
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

200-day moving average

Note: Z = Zero Interest Rate Policy. A = Markets start to anticipate Abenomics. QQE is Quantitative and Qualitative Easing.
QQEE is the expanded and extended version of QQE. NIRP = Negative interest rate policy. YC = Yield curve targeting.
Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 8.
600 600
SOUTH KOREA: WON/US$
(inverted scale)
800 800

1000 1000

1200 1200
4/26

1400 1400

1600 1600

Won (1250.80)
1800 1800

yardeni.com
2000 2000
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

200-day moving average

Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 4 / January 18, 2023 / Currencies Yardeni Research, Inc.

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 Canadian & Australian Dollars
Figure 9.
.8 .8
CANADA: C$/US$
(inverted scale)
.9 .9

1.0 1.0

1.1 1.1

1.2 1.2

1.3 1.3
1/18
Canadian Dollar (1.34)
1.4 1.4

1.5 1.5

1.6 1.6

yardeni.com
1.7 1.7
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

200-day moving average

Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 10.
.8 .8
AUSTRALIA: A$/US$
(inverted scale)
1.0 1.0

1.2 1.2

1.4 4/27 1.4

1.6 1.6

Australian Dollar (1.41)

1.8 1.8

2.0 2.0

yardeni.com
2.2 2.2
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

200-day moving average

Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 5 / January 18, 2023 / Currencies Yardeni Research, Inc.

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 Real & Peso
Figure 11.
.4 .4
BRAZIL: REAL/US$
.8 (inverted scale) .8

1.2 Real (5.10) 1.2

1.6 1.6

2.0 2.0

2.4 2.4

2.8 2.8

3.2 3.2

3.6 3.6

4.0 4.0

4.4 4.4

4.8 4.8
1/18
5.2 5.2

5.6 5.6
yardeni.com
6.0 6.0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

200-day moving average

Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 12.
.20 .20
MEXICO: EXCHANGE RATE
(dollars per peso)

.15 .15

Peso (0.05)

.10 .10

1/17
.05 .05

yardeni.com
.00 .00
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

200-day moving average

Source: MSCI and Haver Analytics.

Page 6 / January 18, 2023 / Currencies Yardeni Research, Inc.

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 Rupee & Rupiah
Figure 13.
25 25
INDIA: RUPEE/$
(inverted scale)

35 35

45 45

55 55

Rupee (81.26)
65 65

75 75

1/18
yardeni.com
85 85
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 14.
0 0
INDONESIA: RUPIA/$
(inverted scale)

5000 5000

10000 10000

Rupia (15088.00)
15000 1/18 15000

yardeni.com
20000 20000
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 7 / January 18, 2023 / Currencies Yardeni Research, Inc.

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 Ringitt & Yuan
Figure 15.
1.5 1.5
MALAYSIA: RINGGIT/$
(inverted scale)
2.0 2.0

2.5 2.5

Ringgit (4.36)
3.0 3.0

3.5 3.5

4.0 4.0

4/27
4.5 4.5

yardeni.com
5.0 5.0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 16.
5.6 5.6
CHINA: YUAN/US$ Latest (6.76)
(inverted scale)
6.0 6.0

6.4 6.4

6.8 1/18 6.8

7.2 7.2

7.6 7.6

8.0 8.0

yardeni.com
8.4 8.4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

200-day moving average

Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 8 / January 18, 2023 / Currencies Yardeni Research, Inc.

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 Baht & Pesos
Figure 17.
15 15
THAILAND: BAHT/$
(inverted scale)
20 20

25 Baht (34.35) 25

30 30

35 4/27 35

40 40

45 45

50 50

55 55

yardeni.com
60 60
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

200-day moving average

Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 18.
20 20
PHILIPPINES: PESOS/$
(inverted scale)
25 25

30 30

35
Pesos (52.11) 35

40 40

45 45

50 50
4/27

55 55

yardeni.com
60 60
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

200-day moving average

Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 9 / January 18, 2023 / Currencies Yardeni Research, Inc.

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 Lira & Ruble
Figure 19.
-4.0 -4.0
TURKEY: LIRA/$
-2.5 (inverted scale) -2.5

-1.0 -1.0
Lira (18.79)
.5 .5

2.0 2.0

3.5 3.5

5.0 5.0

6.5 6.5

8.0 8.0

9.5 9.5

11.0 11.0

12.5 12.5

14.0 14.0

15.5 15.5

17.0 17.0
yardeni.com
18.5 1/17 18.5
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

200-day moving average

Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 20.
-45 -45
RUSSIA RUBLE Latest (68.98)
-30 -30
(units per US dollar, inverted scale)
-15 -15

0 0

15 15

30 30

45 45

60 60
1/17
75 75

90 90

105 105

120 120

135 135

150 150

165 165
yardeni.com
180 180
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

200-day moving average

Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 10 / January 18, 2023 / Currencies Yardeni Research, Inc.

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 Peso
Figure 21.
-30 -30
ARGENTINA: PESO/$ (inverted scale)

-10 -10

10 10

30 30

50 50

70 70

Peso (182.80)
90 90

110 110

130 130

yardeni.com
150 150
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

200-day moving average

Source: Haver Analytics.
1/18

Figure 22.
300 300
CHILE: PESO/$)
350 (inverted scale) 350
400
Peso (819.15) 400
450 450
500 500
550 550
600 600
650 650
700 700
750 750
800 800
1/17
850 850
900 900
950 950
1000 1000
1050 1050
1100 1100
yardeni.com
1150 1150
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

200-day moving average

Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 11 / January 18, 2023 / Currencies Yardeni Research, Inc.

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 Rand & Hryvnia
Figure 23.
SOUTH AFRICA: RAND/$
(inverted scale)
2.0 2.0

4.5 4.5

7.0 7.0

9.5 9.5

12.0 12.0

Rand (17.10)
14.5 14.5

17.0 1/17 17.0

yardeni.com
19.5 19.5
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

200-day moving average

Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 24.
-10 -10
UKRAINE HRYVNIA Latest (36.57)
-5 (units per US dollar, inverted scale) -5

0 0

5 5

10 10

15 15

20 20

25 25

30 30

35 35
1/18
40 40

yardeni.com
45 45
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

200-day moving average

Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 12 / January 18, 2023 / Currencies Yardeni Research, Inc.

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 Misc. Exchange Rates
Figure 25.
1.4 1.4
JAPAN: US$/100YEN
(daily) A
QQE QQEENIRP
1.3 1.3

1.2 1.2

1.1 1.1
Yen (0.78)
1.0 1.0

.9 .9

.8 YC .8
1/18

.7 .7

yardeni.com
.6 .6
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

200-day moving average

Note: A = Markets start to anticipate Abenomics. QQE is Quantitative and Qualitative Easing. QQEE is the expanded and extended version of QQE.
NIRP = negative interest rates. YC = Yield curve targeting.
Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 26.
.8 .8
FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES
.9 (inverted scale) .9

1.0 1.0

1.1 1.1

1.2 1.2

1.3 4/27 1.3

1.4 1.4

1.5 1.5

1.6 1.6

1.7 1.7

1.8 Canada 1.8

(C$/US$) (1.3)
1.9 1.9
Australia
2.0 (A$/US$) (1.4) 2.0

2.1 2.1
yardeni.com
2.2 2.2
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 13 / January 18, 2023 / Currencies Yardeni Research, Inc.

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 Misc. Exchange Rates
Figure 27.
1.8 1.8
SWITZERLAND: SWISS FRANC/EURO

1.6 1.6

1.4 1.4

1.2 1.2

1.0 1/18 1.0

yardeni.com
.8 .8
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 14 / January 18, 2023 / Currencies Yardeni Research, Inc.

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