Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 37

Motilal Oswal Next Trillion Dollar Opportunity Fund

Linear GDP growth = Exponential growth opportunities

Category III, open ended AIF

August 2022
NTDOP Summary….

1 Why Motilal Oswal Asset Management (MOAMC)?

2 Can 2020-30 be India’s Decade?

3 NTDOP Theme

4 Why Now?

5 Strong Track Record - PMS Strategy

6 AIF Advantage – One of the leading PMS is now available on AIF platform
1. Why Motilal Oswal Asset Management?

THINK EQUITY
THINK MOTILAL OSWAL
The 4 P’s
Philosophy Process
• India’s only fund house with a documented • Continuously evolving through insights
investment philosophy carefully honed and a knowledge based culture – 25
by 25 consecutive years of Wealth frameworks developed that provide an
Creation Studies investment edge
The 4 P’s
Philosophy
Process
Professionals Professionals Performance
• 12-member strong Research Team & Performance • 17-year legacy of identifying Multi-
a 25 member Investment Team with baggers (Vision to See + Courage to
a wealth of investing experience Buy + Patience to Hold) across
mandates

Source: Internal

THINK EQUITY 4
THINK MOTILAL OSWAL
Investment Philosophy

Q G

L P

5
Decoding QGLP

Q Quality
G Growth
Potential for External factors
Quality of Business Quality of Management Robust Growth for the past 3 – 5
growth in the
years
future Internal factors

Cost Volume
Competitive Company Unquestionable Demonstrable Growth Favorable Inorganic growth (if any)
Landscape Financials Integrity Competence Mindset Price Mix

L Longevity
P Price
Expected 3 – 5 yr EPS
TTM P/E PEG < 1.5
CAGR

Business relevance 10 Sustainable / expanding


External factors P/E vs benchmark P/E Current Price Target price in 3 years
years from now moat

Market capitalization
Potential for upside Past 3-year price
movement over the
going forward CAGR
last 3 – 5 years

6
Source: Internal
Chairman and One of India’s Most Respected Investing Minds

• Equity investing is complex. A checklist is an


excellent tool to bring discipline to the
process.
• The 25 questions here and the 25 related
frameworks are a good starting point for an
Raamdeo Agrawal investor to create their own checklist over
Chairman, MOFSL
time.
• Time is a friend of good companies and
enemy of bad companies.
• In 25 years, successful companies grow to
unimaginable levels in sales, profits and market
cap.
• Stock returns are slaves of earnings power
and growth. In the very long run, valuations
matter less.
• Over 50% of current market cap is made up
of listings post 1995.

THINK EQUITY 7
THINK MOTILAL OSWAL
26 years of Wealth Creation Studies

• Atoms to Bits
• Management Integrity – Understanding
Sharp practices
• Valuation Insights – What Works, What
Dosen’t
• Cap & Gap – Power of Longevity in wealth
creation
• Porter’s 5 Forces
• Value Migration
• Great, Good, Gruesome
• Emergence & Endurance
• Next Trillion Dollar Opportunity
• Winner Categories, Category Winners
• Management – 90% rule of investing
• Payback ratio – Market Cap ÷ Next 5 years PAT
• PEG – Trailing P/E to Forward earnings CAGR

THINK EQUITY 8
THINK MOTILAL OSWAL
Skin in the game: What does it mean? – A true Win-Win Construct

‘Skin in the Game’: Where the Fund House and Fund Manager invests heavily in its own
funds along with investors

What is at stake? I Win only when


~4225 Cr you Win

• Skin in the game is the ultimate fiduciary test


• When interests are aligned – benefits and rewards are also aligned

THINK EQUITY 9
THINK MOTILAL OSWAL
2. Can 2020-30 be India’s Decade?

THINK EQUITY
THINK MOTILAL OSWAL
The Famed Journey to USD 5 Tn

There are only 9 economies with more than US 2 Tn GDP and the cross over to USD 5 Tn is a challenging one!

Country GDP (USD Tn)

5Tn+ GDP Economies USA 19.5


US, China, Japan
China 12.2

Japan 5.0

Germany 3.7
3-5Tn GDP Economy
Germany India 2.7

UK 2.6

France 2.6

2-3Tn GDP Economies Brazil 2.0


India, UK, Brazil, Italy, France
Italy 2.0

11
Source: Bloomberg research, Worldometers
The national ambition – building a $5 Trillion Economy
India has entered the critical move from a USD 2.5 trillion economy to a USD 5 trillion economy

The move marks the start of India’s second


structural growth phase
USD 5
trillion This crossover witnessed the strongest equity
GDP market returns for other economies.

10 years
Benchmark Movement
USA 1979 1988
Shanghai SE
(in USD) S&P 500
Composite Index
5 years
China 2004 2009 Index Value at 2.5 Tn 348 163
Index Value at 5.0 Tn 1707 556
CAGR % 17% 28%

USD 2.5
trillion
GDP
12
Source: Bloomberg research
3. Next Trillion Dollar Opportunity Fund - Theme

THINK EQUITY
THINK MOTILAL OSWAL
India growth story is on …
6th USD tn
2 years
India’s GDP trend in USD Tn* 5th USD tn • India is on the cusp of major
3 years
6.1 change…
4th USD tn
3 years 5.2 • Projections of growth, over
3rd USD tn the long term remain
7 years
4.0 encouraging and optimistic
2nd USD tn
for India
1st USD tn 7 years 3.1
~60 years • A young demographic, paired
2.0 with burgeoning middle-class
1.2 that is digitally enabled, is
once in a life-time
opportunity for India
• Every NTD (next trillion
FY01

FY08

FY15
FY50
FY60
FY70
FY80
FY90
FY00

FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07

FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14

FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22E

FY29E
FY23E
FY24E
FY25E
FY26E
FY27E
FY28E

FY30E
dollar) takes successively
lesser number of years

*GDP is Nominal GDP. Source: MOAMC Internal Research


Disclaimer: The above graph/data is used to explain the concept and is for illustration purpose only. The data mentioned herein are for general and comparison purpose only and not a complete disclosure of every material fact. and should not
used for development or implementation of an investment strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.

THINK EQUITY 14
THINK MOTILAL OSWAL
NTD Framework : Linear growth, Exponential opportunities

Doubling of per capita GDP


Basic Spend leads to 10x opportunity in

Discretionary Spend discretionary categories

Saving Housing
1200
Consumer
4x Autos Durables

Entertainment
10 x 1050
Premium
300
Travel
Wear
100
600 750 Higher savings also mean
opportunities in:
Capital
Infrastructure
USD 1,000 USD 3,000 Goods
Source: MOAMC Internal Research
Disclaimer: The above graph/data is used to explain the concept and is for illustration purpose only. The data mentioned herein are for general and comparison purpose only and not a complete disclosure of every material fact. and should not
used for development or implementation of an investment strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.

THINK EQUITY 15
THINK MOTILAL OSWAL
Favourable Demographics – Long Runway for Growth for Consumer Discretionary

Evolution of the household-income profile in India

High Income & Upper Middle


Segment
• 1 in 4 households today
• 1 in 2 households by
2030

2005

Note: Low income: <$4,000, Lower-mid: $4,000-8,500, Upper-mid: $8,500-40,000, High income: >$40,000 basis income per household in real terms;

Source: BCG CCI Proprietary Income Database


The above graph is used to explain the concept and is for illustration purpose only and should not used for development or implementation of an investment strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.

THINK EQUITY
THINK MOTILAL OSWAL
4. Why Now?

THINK EQUITY
THINK MOTILAL OSWAL
Asian Economies To lead Consumer Growth : India likely leader

No. of additional Consumers (Mn) Projected 2030 Rank

India 419.5 2

China 336.9 1

Indonesia 75.8 4 India will lead the


Asian countries
Pakistan 59.5 7 by adding the
most number of
Bangladesh 52.4 11 consumers in this
decade
Philippines 37.5 13

Egypt 29.6 9

USA 24.2 3

Out of 30 biggest markets, those spending more than 11$ (2011 PPP) on average. Source: World Data Lab via Brookings Institution, Statista.

THINK EQUITY 18
THINK MOTILAL OSWAL
Private Consumption & Capex : Key Drivers of Capital Formation & GDP Growth

Real GDP Growth Trend (INR Tn) • Private Consumption


140 146
135 contributes a major
131
123
114 35% portion of the Real
105 35% 34%
92 98 34%
87 34%
33% GDP
36%
39% 35%
40% • We expect bounce
38 39 back in Capex and
56% 56% 57% 56%
28% 26% 56% 56%
56% 56% 57% 56% hence higher share of
59% 59%
GFCF to GDP growth
FY00 FY01 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
in near future
Private Consumption Govt Consumption Gross Capital Formation Net Exports

Source: MOAMC Internal Research


Disclaimer: The above graph/data is used to explain the concept and is for illustration purpose only. The data mentioned herein are for general and comparison purpose only and not a complete disclosure of every material fact. and should not
used for development or implementation of an investment strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.

THINK EQUITY 19
THINK MOTILAL OSWAL
5. Why should NTDOP be a part of every Portfolio?

Proven track record – PMS Flagship portfolio

Alpha of ~4% CAGR in Key themes and


Attractive Valuations
PMS Since Inception stocks

THINK EQUITY
THINK MOTILAL OSWAL
NTDOP – delivered gain of 3X vs GDP growth - 19% CAGR for 13yrs

GDP Growth Nifty 500 TRI NTDOP Performance

8.1x
3x movement of
NTDOP
4.7x performance v/s
2.8x GDP Growth
Between 2007 and
2022
Absolute Returns Since Inception

NTDOP Performance
78.5 81.0
SI Returns (CAGR)
58.0 57.5 NTDOP 15%
52.9 49.9
40.0 41.0 Nifty 500 11%
24.4 Alpha 4%
14.1 17.6
11.9 12.9
8.5

Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 Jul-22

Data as of 31st July, 2022


5 yr Rolling Returns – Returns in excess of 15% are 72 % of all observations

NTDOP PMS
Nifty 500 TRI • The number of observations
Strategy for returns above 15% is 72%
compared to only 33% of the
benchmark
% times returns are
72% 33%
in excess of 15%

• The strategy on an average has


% times returns are
6% 17% delivered 21.2% on 5 years
less than 7%
rolling basis compared to 11.7%
by the benchmark
Average 21.2% 11.8%
• The number of observations
for returns below 7% is only 6%
compared to 17% of the
benchmark

Rolling Returns Data Since Inception. Data as of 31st December,2021. The above analysis pertains to our PMS strategy. Inception data:- 3rd August, 2007
Historically Low PEG : Earnings Growth and Valuations in a Sweet Spot

QGLP Philosophy – NTDOP AIF

Favourable Market Cap Mix Quality RoE: 18% FY24E Sector Mix
Consumer
Durables, Capital
Small 4.94 Goods, 4.2
Textiles, Cash, 0.3
Cap, 2.9 6.05
Growth 23% PAT CAGR over FY22 – 24E Financial
Services,
Automobile 24.0
and Auto
Component
Large s, 6.76
Mid Cap, Oil, Gas & Consumable
Cap, 48.0 Longevity High Fuels, 6.78
Information
49.1 Technology,
Healthcare, 8.5
16.1

Price PE: 19x FY24; PEG: 1.3x Fast Moving


Consumer Others,
Goods, 8.75 13.7

Disclaimer: The Stocks mentioned above are used to explain the concept and is for illustration purpose only and should not be used for development or implementation of any investment strategy. It should not be construed as investment advice to any party. The stocks may or
may not be part of our portfolio/strategy/ schemes. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.
The data is as on 31 July, 2022 23
Strategy has a stellar track record of identifying Multi-baggers
Past Multibaggers Initial Buy Portfolio Status Multiple

Page Industries Dec-07 Part of Portfolio 112x

Bajaj Finance Aug-10 7-Apr-20 28x

Eicher Motors Ltd. Aug-10 Part of Portfolio 22x


New additions like
Gland Pharma
GSK Consumer Healthcare Ltd. / HUL Feb-09 23-Nov-20 18x already 2x : showing
promising signs,
Ipca Labs Nov-12 Part of Portfolio 5x gearing up for a long
innings
Voltas Dec-10 Part of Portfolio 5x

LTTS Sep-16 Part of Portfolio 4x


Max Financial and
ICICI Bank all set to
Potential Multibaggers First Purchase Month Returns Multiple join the multibaggers
club
Max Financial Jun-14 135% 2.4x

Gland Pharma Nov-20 70% 1.9x

ICICI Bank Nov-18 89% 2.1x


Today’s India : More Aspirational in its Consumption Pattern

• Steady and Dispersed • Existing Technology


Urbanization Backbone
• Breakdown of Urban- • New Technology and
Rural divide Business Model Innovations

Technology
Urbanization and
Innovation
Evolving
Income Favorable
Consumer
Growth Demographics
attitudes

• Middle and High Segment


Expansion • Working age Majority • Attitudes (Income,
• Reduction of Poverty • Millennials and Gen Z Demographics, Technology-
• Consumption Growth and adoption led preferences)
Composition

Source: InvestCorp, Sep 2021 Report 25


NTDOP – A Portfolio which links Investments with Your Lifestyle

Eicher : Leading the premiumisation in motorbikes Gland Pharma: A focused injectable player in a large end
through a strong brand (Royal Enfield) market with a strong track record

Emami: A niche FMCG with focus on relatively Voltas: Market leader with a strong brand,
underpenetrated segments. distribution moats and strong financials

ITC: Cigarettes major and the 2nd largest L&T: A play on the capex revival & infra spends;
FMCG player with a potential value unlocking best in class metrics, a robust oder book and
event execution momentum

Max Fin Services: Best in class metrics, Axis SBI: High ROE Forecast and Asset quality woes
Bank as largest shareholder, secular runway & behind, pave way for re-rating
collapse of hold-co structure

Ipca Labs: A fast growing, fully integrated pharma Clean Science: A play on eco-friendly, cleaner
play focussed on formulations chemistries using in-house catalysts

ICICI Bank: Big beneficiary of re-rating led by change in Page Industries: Market leader in premium innerwear
management and leisurewear category, strong backward integration

26
Portfolio Positioning

THINK EQUITY
THINK MOTILAL OSWAL
Portfolio Mix at glance
Others
Banking, Financial Services and Information
Container Corp Bayer CropScience
Technology, 16.1
Insurance Macrotech Developers Clean Science Ltd.
ICICI Bank Others, 13.7
Vedant Fashions
Kotak Mahindra
Financial Services, Birla Corp
SBI 24.0
Max Financial Services L&T Ltd
Fast Moving
Consumer Goods, IT
8.8 LTTS
Capital Goods LTI
Bharat Forge Cummins India Cash, 0.3 Oil, Gas & Consumable TCS
Capital Goods, 4.2 Fuels, 6.8 Tech Mahindra
Consumer
Textiles Durables, 4.9 FMCG
Healthcare, 8.5
Page Industries
Textiles, 6.1 ITC
Automobile and Auto Godrej Industries
Consumer Durables Components, 6.8 Emami Ltd
Voltas Ltd.

Oil, Gas and Consumable Fuels Health Care


Auto and Auto Ancillary Alkem Labs
Eicher Motors Reliance
HPCL Gland Pharma
Bosch Ltd.
Aegis Logistics IPCA Labs

NTDOP AIF Portfolio data as on 31 July, 2022


Disclaimer: The above chart is used to explain the concept and is for illustration purpose only. The stocks may or may not be part of our portfolio/ strategy/ schemes. The data mentioned herein are for general and comparison purpose only and not a complete 28
disclosure of every material fact and should not used for development or implementation of an investment strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.
6. AIF Advantage

THINK EQUITY
THINK MOTILAL OSWAL
AIF Platform benefits – Open ended structure

Best of both worlds – Pool level investing like MF and Flexibility like PMS

Operational ease – No demat required; Smooth online onboarding

Invest in IPOs as an Anchor

Tax Convenience – Taxes paid by the scheme on behalf of investors

30
AIFs have the ability to invest via IPOs

Name of the stock Listing Day Gains


Supriya Life Science 43%

Zomato 66%

GR Infra 109%

Clean Science 76%

Barbeque Nation 18%

• In case of PMS, Fund managers are forced to pay additional premium on listing day for potential multi-baggers
• Whereas in AIF, Fund Managers enjoy decent allocation in IPOs at issue price and thereby add on the listing day gains too

Source: MOAMC Internal Research, Chittorgarh Website


Disclaimer: The above graph/data is used to explain the concept and is for illustration purpose only. The data mentioned herein are for general and comparison purpose only and not a complete disclosure of every material fact. and should not
used for development or implementation of an investment strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.

THINK EQUITY 31
THINK MOTILAL OSWAL
Fund Management Team and Key Terms

THINK EQUITY
THINK MOTILAL OSWAL
Fund Manager

Manish Sonthalia

• Manish has been managing the Strategy since inception and also serves as the
Director of the Motilal Oswal India Fund, Mauritius.
• He has over 25 years of experience in equity research and fund management, with
over 14 years with Motilal Oswal PMS.
• He has been the guiding pillar in the PMS investment process and has been managing
various PMS strategies and AIFs at MOAMC.
• Manish holds various post graduate degrees including an MBA in Finance, FCA,
Company Secretaryship (CS) and Cost & Works Accountancy (CWA).
Fund Manager

THINK EQUITY 33
THINK MOTILAL OSWAL
Key Terms & Structure
Class Fee Structure Minimum Capital Commitment Management Fee p.a.

B1 Fixed Fee 1 Cr < 2.5 Cr 2.50%

B2 Fixed Fee >= 2.5 Cr < 5 Cr 2.25%

B3 Fixed Fee >=5 Cr < 10 Cr 2.00%

B4 Fixed Fee >=10 Cr < 25 Cr 1.75%

B5 Fixed Fee >= 25 Cr 1.50%

Name of the scheme Motilal Oswal Next Trillion Dollar Opportunity Fund
Type Category III, open ended scheme
Subscription/Redemption Subscription:Weekly – Every Monday; Redemption – Month end with 5 business days advance notice
Set up Fee Upto 2% on Capital contribution
No. of stocks Upto 30
Benchmark Nifty 500 TRI
Exit Load – From
Upto 6 months – 4%, 6 to 12 months – 3%, 12-24 months – 2%, 24 to 36 months – 1%
allotment date
34
Please refer PPM for further details.
Tax Update
The rate at which a Cat III fund pays tax on each of these types of income is explained in the table below:

Nature of Income Type of Basic Tax Surcharge Education Cess (applied on Maximum Marginal
earned by the Fund instruments (applied on tax) both tax and surcharge) Rate (MMR)
Short Term Capital gains Cash Equity 15% 15% 4% 17.94%

Long Term Capital gains Cash Equity 10% 15% 4% 11.96%

Dividend Income _ 30% 15% 4% 35.88%


The above rates are as per the budget of FY21-22.

• Tax on both realized and unrealized gains is factored in the NAV on an ongoing basis. Thus, it is a post-tax post
management fee NAV.
• Tax is paid by the trust as a representative assessee on behalf of the investor.
• Since the tax is discharged by the fund on behalf of investors, they do not have to pay additional tax separately.
This holds true in case of resident individual investors. Investors with different legal entity should consult their
tax advisor.
• No TDS certificate is received by the investor for Cat III fund.
• The fund shares a tax letter post the completion of audit for relevant financial year.

35
Disclaimer
The content is issued on the basis of internal data, publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable. The information contained in this document is for
general purposes only and not a complete disclosure of every material fact and terms and conditions. The information / data herein alone is not sufficient and shouldn’t be
used for the development or implementation of an investment strategy. It should not be construed as investment advice to any party.

All opinions, figures, charts/graphs, estimates and data included in this presentation are as on date and are subject to change without notice. The statements contained herein
may include statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on our current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown
risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Readers shall be fully
responsible / liable for any decision taken on the basis of this presentation. Investments in Securities are subject to market and other risks and there is no assurance or
guarantee that the objectives of any of the Schemes will be achieved.The scheme may not be suited to all categories of investors.

The material is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such.
Opinions, if any, expressed are our opinions as of the date of appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in
this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Recipient shall understand that the aforementioned statements cannot
disclose all the risks and characteristics. The recipient is requested to take into consideration all the risk factors including their financial condition, suitability to risk return,
etc. and take professional advice before investing.

As with any investment in securities, the Value of the portfolio under management may go up or down depending on the various factors and forces affecting the capital
market.
This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished solely for information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into
whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions.

Investment in Securities is subject to market and other risks and there is no assurance or guarantee that the objectives of any of the Schemes of Alternative Investment
Funds will be achieved. Please read Private Placement Memorandum of the Scheme carefully before investing.

THINK EQUITY 36
THINK MOTILAL OSWAL
Thank You!

THINK EQUITY
THINK MOTILAL OSWAL

You might also like