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Feasibility Study For The Establishment of A Fruit and Vegetable Supply Chain
Feasibility Study For The Establishment of A Fruit and Vegetable Supply Chain
16/09/2012
(Revised 23 October 2012)
Feasibility study for the establishment of a fruit and vegetable supply-chain – Kyrgyz Republic: Project document. 0
PROJECT BRIEF
Brief description:
The aim of this project is to evaluate the feasibility of establishing a fruit and vegetable supply-chain in the
vicinity of Bishkek/Kyrgyz Republic. This platform will target not only local markets, but also those in neighboring
countries, especially the Russian Federation market. It will be structured around all segments of the chain,
namely production, processing, agro-food testing, packaging, logistics and marketing.
The project will be the first of its kind in the Kyrgyz Republic. The logistic center is expected to be located near
Bishkek with regional contracting centers in at least 3 agricultural regions of the country. The overall investment
is estimated at USD 100 millions.
The project will target a large number of smallholders (i.e. women farmers, youth, producer associations,
cooperative groups, etc.) and Small-Medium agro-enterprises.
The feasibility study should provide a basis for decision-making as well as documentation for the Eurasian
Development Bank, the Russian Trade Representation in Kyrgyzstan and SK Development to invest in such
project.
Approved:
On behalf of
On behalf of
Feasibility study for the establishment of a fruit and vegetable supply-chain – Kyrgyz Republic: Project document. 1
A. CONTEXT
A.1. BACKGROUND
The Kyrgyz Republic– a landlocked country in Central Asia with a population of 5.4 million – has not yet fully
recovered from the 2010 socio-political turmoil and is still struggling to face the challenges and drawbacks
resulting from unstable and sometimes hostile conditions. The accelerating changes in the global economy and
the lack of sustainability in the development of some sectors add to the challenges that Kyrgyzstan has to face.
The country gained independence in 1991, and since then made substantial progress towards the creation of a
liberal market economy, including international integration through trade and investment. The Government
formally requested to join the Belarus-Kazakhstan-Russia Customs Union (CU). But, several concerns remain to
be resolved prior to accession, including compatibility with the country’s existing membership in the World Trade
Organization (WTO)1.
With improvements in the political and security situation in 2011, the Kyrgyz economy recovered from recession
and experienced a broad-based growth (5.7%). However, Kyrgyzstan remains one of the poorest countries in the
2
Central Asia region, with income per head of $880 in 2010 . Poverty remains widespread as more than 31.7% of
the population lives below the poverty line, and the government remains challenged in delivering basic services in
various regions of the country. In addition, wide disparities and income inequalities all challenge the country’s
progress, with poverty highly concentrated in rural areas. The following table provides a brief overview of some of
the more common socio-economic indicators for the country.
Kyrgyzstan has now a reform-minded Government in place which has set as primary objectives enhancing
political and social well-being and achieving economic prosperity, together with human dignity and equal
opportunities for the people of the Kyrgyz Republic. The main pillars of the Government strategy towards
reaching these goals are:
Considering the landlocked nature of the country and its historical regional economic ties, the Eurasian Economic
Commonwealth (EurAsEC) is seen as an immediate market opportunity. Therefore, a strategic factor for the
Kyrgyz Republic to develop its economy, create productive employment and reduce poverty is:
• To strengthen its regional cooperation, especially trade related activities. Key sectors presenting a great
potential for making significant progress in such developments are agriculture and related industries.
• This project aims at establishing a regional supply-chain for fruits and vegetables targeting not only local
markets, but also neighboring countries, and especially the Russian Federation market.
1
The Kyrgyz Republic has been a member of WTO since 20 December 1998.
2
World Bank – Atlas methodology.
Feasibility study for the establishment of a fruit and vegetable supply-chain – Kyrgyz Republic: Project document. 2
A.2. PROBLEMS TO BE ADDRESSED
While being one of the leading sectors in the Kyrgyz economy, the agricultural sector (including products
processing and marketing) faces a range of constraints, including the following:
• A highly very fragmented sector where 14% of the enterprises regularly sell their products through retail
shops.
• Insufficient training in the production and processing techniques leading to production losses.
• Difficulties in accessing market channels and a poor understanding of customer needs and
requirements at the export and national markets.
• Lack of access to finance despite the relatively low investment requirements to develop an agricultural
business.
• Inappropriate technologies and facilities leading to production spoilage and poor product quality and
safety.
• Inability to ensure constant volume of deliveries at the request of the buyer and the seasonal nature of
supply.
• Significant loss of production volumes for transportation due to the lack of primary processing of
products.
Despite these constraints, Kyrgyzstan has clear comparative advantages in the region which can support the
development of the agricultural sector; especially for the production of fruit and vegetables (F&V) and associated
agri-businesses. However it will be necessary to develop and integrate all segments of the F&V supply-chain
within the country and also build the local capacity and infrastructure to meet the requirements of export markets.
UNIDO’s potential cooperation with Kyrgyzstan is guided by the government’s priorities and is complementing
activities of other development partners in the country. The main focus of this cooperation as identified in the joint
3
assessment mission carried-out by UNIDO and the Government of Kyrgyzstan in May 2012 is as follow :
UNIDO has conducted several feasibility studies for industrial as well as non-industrial projects, whether new
investments, rehabilitations, expansions, joint venture or privatization projects. The Organization has also
developed its own tools for carrying-out such studies, including COMFAR (Computer Model for Feasibility
Analysis and Reporting) and How to start agro-food industries. These tools will be applied in this project.
C. THE PROJECT
Develop the supply chain of fruit and vegetable in Kyrgyzstan contributing to income generation, products
diversification and increased market export.
Decision makers and investors take informed-decisions based on the F&V supply-chain feasibility study.
3
Based on an assessment mission carried-out by UNIDO in May 2012.
Feasibility study for the establishment of a fruit and vegetable supply-chain – Kyrgyz Republic: Project document. 3
C.2. BUSINESS IDEA AND UNIDO APPROACH
The overall project idea is to set up a supply-chain platform for fruits and vegetables in the Kyrgyz Republic. In
addition to supporting the development of the agricultural sector in the country by organizing the local distribution
of fruits and vegetables, this platform will serve as a basis for enhancing regional agricultural trade and economic
integration.
Currently the distribution and marketing of fruits and vegetables in the Kyrgyz Republic is disorganized and
inefficient. It involves several small producers, traders and distributers with unclear transactions. The sector is
characterized by unreliable supplies both in terms of quantities and quality, high informal fees for the
transportation of the goods through the Customs Union, significant loss of the production due to limited primary
processing, etc.
The proposed project (business) aims at solving some of the above-mentioned challenges by organizing and
developing the supply of fruits and vegetables both in the country and for neighbouring markets (especially the
Russian Federation). The suggested model for such organization is shown in Figure 1.
Distribution
Centres in Russia
Logistics platform
near Bishkek
Small Agricultural
Producers
Figure 1. Proposed model for the organizing the F&V supply chain
Feasibility study for the establishment of a fruit and vegetable supply-chain – Kyrgyz Republic: Project document. 4
In brief, the main resources are fruits and vegetables to be supplied from different agricultural regions of the
Kyrgyz Republic. Small agricultural producers from these regions will be organized and contracted to supply their
productions to Regional Contracting Centers (RCC) where the products will be subject to quality control and
primary processing and stored. The RCCs will in turn supply the F&V to a logistic platform which would serve as
the main operator of the project by providing services such as: market intelligence, develop orders, regulate
pricing and volume of supplies, etc.
The overall planned investment for establishing this supply-chain platform is about USD 100 mill, including land,
buildings, agro-processing infrastructure (sorting, refrigeration, packing stations, labs, etc.), logistics/supply
regulation, IT (information, data management, market monitoring, etc.), food safety compliance (product
specifications and guidelines for quality, traceability, certification, etc.), operation (waste management, drinking
water, waste water, electricity, etc.), security (access control, telemonitoring, etc.) and promotion of the Kyrgyz
F&V trade mark.
The project is expected to be financed by private investors from the Russian Federation and SK Development (a
Kyrgyz company) as well as by attracting loans from the Eurasian Development Bank.
The main target customers for the fruits and vegetables are expected to be the national markets and those of the
Russian Federation.
The approach to be used for carry-out the feasibility study will be based on UNIDO’s standard methodology,
including the steps described in Figure 2 below:
Technical
Competition Set the
Analysis
objectives
Analysis Steps
As described in Figure 2, the project development process involves a series of stages of preparation, essentially
in a logical progression. However, in practice the process is iterative – accumulating information at later stages
requires review and perhaps modification of approaches of prior stages. In fact, the sequence can be initiated
almost at any point; only as information and ideas take shape can the entire investment project configuration
crystallize.
Based on the information provided by SK Development and the Russian Trade representation in Bishkek, UNIDO
will describe the supply-chain investment project with a particular focus on available resources in the various
agricultural regions of Kyrgyzstan (fruits and vegetables), the possible location of the logistic platform and its
satellite (regional contracting centers). UNIDO will further complete this information by the review and
assessment of potential competition and markets. Such information will allow identifying existing opportunities
and strategies for the way forward. It will also allow preparing a business concept that explains how and why the
project will be successful and eventually identify investors and financiers who are willing to support the project. At
the same time, guarantors, if required, have to be identified and brought into the picture. Subsequently, a more
Feasibility study for the establishment of a fruit and vegetable supply-chain – Kyrgyz Republic: Project document. 5
detailed techno-economic feasibility study will be carried-out, including risk and sensitivity analysis of the project.
Section C.4 provides the details of the activities to be carried-out.
The project direct beneficiaries are SK Development, the Russian Trade Representation in Kyrgyzstan and the
Eurasia Development Bank which will make use of the results of the feasibility study.
In the medium to long-term, the project is expected to benefit the following categories of indirect beneficiaries:
• The agro-based industries (SME’s) which would benefit from the establishment of a F&V supply chain
platform.
• The Kyrgyz farmers and exporters of agricultural products who would benefit from the supply chain.
• The rural communities who can access better services/technologies for producing and processing their
products.
• The Kyrgyz Government will be benefit from a regulated F&V market with transparent transactions.
The following activities and outputs will be expected (See Annex 2: Project logframe)
Feasibility study for the establishment of a fruit and vegetable supply-chain – Kyrgyz Republic: Project document. 6
Output 2 Full fledge feasibility study prepared for the establishment of
interregional supply-chain platform
Activity Description
2.1 Review and analyze thoroughly the findings described in Output 1: the project
background, the strategic plan, preliminary assessment of costs, etc.
2.2 Conduct a market study for the F&V sector targeting both the local market in
Kyrgyzstan and those of neighboring countries, in particular Russia
2.3 Confirm the location of the regional contracting centers and the logistics
platform
2.4 Assess the raw materials and supplies in selected regions, including costs,
supply, specification of requirements of raw materials and their availability
2.5 Assess the technologies and the civil engineering work required for the
establishment of the logistics platform, including preliminary layout and
technology choices, and basic engineering:
• Site planning (water and power generation), access, technical options
(cold storage, insulation, logistics aspects, etc.)
• Size of wholesale units, warehouses, loading docks, primary-
processing, etc.).
2.6 Provide an organizational framework of the operations in order to ensure its
efficiency and effectiveness
2.7 Describe the project’s requirements in terms of human resources, their roles
and responsibilities - an organizational chart is to be included
2.8 Prepare an implementation plan and budget of the activities
2.9 Provide a financial analysis and investment appraisal of the project using
COMFAR – Business plan and profitability (See Annex 1: Feasibility outline).
As reported above, the expected output of this project is a detailed feasibility study for the development of a F&V
vegetable supply-chain for both the Kyrgyz market and those of neighboring countries. Once the results of the
feasibility study implemented, the expected outcomes may include:
• Development and promotion of the F&V sector in Kyrgyzstan leading to poverty reduction.
Feasibility study for the establishment of a fruit and vegetable supply-chain – Kyrgyz Republic: Project document. 7
C.6. BUDGET
The budget requirement for conducting this feasibility study is 200.000 € with the following indicative breakdown:
Feasibility study for the establishment of a fruit and vegetable supply-chain – Kyrgyz Republic: Project document. 8
C.7. TIMELINE OF THE ACTIVITIES
The project will be implemented over a 6 months period as described in the chart below.
Output Month
1 2 3 4 5 6
Pre-feasibility study
Feasibility study
UNIDO will have the overall responsibility for the implementation of the project and the appropriate use of donor
funding. In line with its administrative regulations and in consultation with the national counterparts, UNIDO will
take all decisions regarding staff recruitment, contractual agreements, technical assistance, backstopping and
project supervision, procurement, monitoring and reporting.
The project will be subject to monitoring and evaluation process in line with the prevailing UNIDO policies and
procedures. Accordingly, after 3-months, the Project Manager shall prepare a progress report on project activities
detailing progress achieved in terms of the scheduled programme of work, the problems and constraints
emerging over the period, and recommendations for correcting them, plus a work plan for the following period.
This report will be sent to the donor with copies to the national counterparts for their information and appropriate
actions. UNIDO’ s technical staff and Project consultants shall also prepare technical reports detailing the project
progress and their achievements/findings. These will be issued as field documents and, upon request, will be
submitted to the donor as well as to other collaborating partners.
The Project Manager shall also prepare and submit to the counterpart and to the donor a terminal report for
approval. This terminal report shall assess, in a concise manner, the extent to which the project’s scheduled
activities have been carried-out and the objectives/outputs produced. It will also present recommendations for
any future follow-up action arising out of the project.
Feasibility study for the establishment of a fruit and vegetable supply-chain – Kyrgyz Republic: Project document. 9
C.10. RISKS MITIGATIONS MEASURES
The basic risks as related to this project can be summarized as provided below:
proposed.
Conflicts with other Low • Ongoing and planned initiatives within the
development projects agricultural and agro-industrial sector studied
thoroughly
• Close coordination with existing projects and
initiatives for complementing efforts and achieving
synergies.
F&V exporters will not work Medium • Capitalize on existing vested interest and
together on export and pricing enthusiasm of producers, processors and exporters
strategy to develop the sector.
• Provide examples and success cases from other
countries.
Lack of governmental support Low • High level lobbying with top governmental officials
at national level • Ensure project visibility at the national level and
Political
country does not remain • Keeping financial books based on UNIDO financial
stable regulations
• Third party audits conducted for UNIDO
• Audits by donor or donor representatives
The project will be implemented under the Standard Basic Assistance Agreement signed between the
Government of Kyrgyzstan and UNDP.
Feasibility study for the establishment of a fruit and vegetable supply-chain – Kyrgyz Republic: Project document. 10
ANNEX 1:
OUTLINE FOR THE PREPARATION OF A FEASIBILITY STUDY FOR AN AGRO-COMMODITIES SUPPLY
CHAIN IN THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC
• This will include background information, key stakeholders, strategies and project history
• Basic Market Orientation – specifically focusing on neighboring countries and particularly the
Russian Federation.
• Projected production volumes, unit prices, sales, objectives, and market share of proposed
venture.
• Consumer analysis and the proposed distribution channels
• Present demand and supply analysis
• Competition analysis
• Import and export considerations including any restrictions.
• Sales and marketing strategies and considerations
• Any other critical factors that may affect market potential.
• Estimate of total project cost, detailed into the key components such as constructions,
equipment, etc.
• Proposed financial structures, including the sources and terms of equity and financing.
• Projected financial statements, including return on investment.
• Any other critical factors deemed relevant to the project.
• Overview of the environmental and social context of the projects delivery environment
• Proposed responses to the social and environmental context (where appropriate).
• The project in the context of the key stakeholders CSR strategies (where relevant).
Feasibility study for the establishment of a fruit and vegetable supply-chain – Kyrgyz Republic: Project document. 11
6. GOVERNMENT SUPPORT AND REGULATIONS
7. IMPLEMENTATION
9. RECOMMENDATIONS
Feasibility study for the establishment of a fruit and vegetable supply-chain – Kyrgyz Republic: Project document. 12
ANNEX 2: PROJECT DESIGN MATRIX
1. Pre-feasibility study prepared for the Two studies prepared (1 pre-feasibility and 1 • Studies reports • Key people actively support the project
establishment of an interregional supply- feasibility study), including • Progress reports • Institutional mechanisms are in place to
chain platform – Business model. - In depth market assessment • Mission reports facilitate data collection and realization of the
- Raw materials and supply evaluation • M&E reports activities
2. Full fledge feasibility study prepared for the carried out
establishment of interregional supply-chain - Strategic location and required
platform Technologies identified
- Organisational framework developed
- Financial appraisal and investment
requirements evaluated
ACTIVITIES OUTPUT 1: ACTIVITIES OUTPUT 2:
1.1 Define the context and overall content of the project 2.1 Review and analyze thoroughly the findings described in Output 1: the project background,
1.2 Identify and describe the participants/stakeholders which will be involved directly/indirectly the strategic plan, preliminary assessment of costs, etc.
in the project. 2.2 Conduct a market study for the F&V sector targeting both the local market in Kyrgyzstan and
1.3 Formulate a development strategy of the project taking into consideration the interregional those of neighboring countries, in particular Russia
component. 2.3 Confirm the location of the regional contracting centers and the logistics platform
1.4 Provide recommendations on: (i) The location/s and accessibility; (ii) The necessary surface 2.4 Assess the raw materials and supplies in selected regions, including costs, supply,
areas and facilities; (iii) The technological requirements.; (iv) Distribution channels/logistics; specification of requirements of raw materials and their availability
and (v) The human factors 2.5 Assess the technologies and the civil engineering work required for the establishment of the
1.5 Description of the project concept (business model), its scope and realization, outline the logistics platform, including preliminary layout and technology choices, and basic eng.
expected outcomes of the project and provide preliminary assessment of costs. 2.6 Provide a detailed organizational framework of the operations in order to ensure its efficiency
and effectiveness
2.7 Describe the project’s requirements in terms of human resources, their roles and
responsibilities - an organizational chart is to be included
2.8 Prepare an implementation plan and budget of the activities
2.9 Provide a financial analysis and investment appraisal of the project using COMFAR–
Business plan and profitability.
Feasibility study for the establishment of a fruit and vegetable supply-chain – Kyrgyz Republic: Project document. 13
Contacts:
Marat USUPOV
Head of UNIDO Operations in Kyrgyzstan
6 Ryskulov Str. Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, 720040
E-Mail: M.Usupov@unido.org
Telephone: +996 312612495
FAX: +996 312612496
Feasibility study for the establishment of a fruit and vegetable supply-chain – Kyrgyz Republic: Project document. 14