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World Agricultural Production: Kazakhstan Wheat: High Yield Prospects Following Beneficial Rainfall
World Agricultural Production: Kazakhstan Wheat: High Yield Prospects Following Beneficial Rainfall
World Agricultural Production: Kazakhstan Wheat: High Yield Prospects Following Beneficial Rainfall
Department of
Agriculture
Foreign
Agricultural
Service
Circular Series
WAP 08-11
August 2011
World Agricultural
Production
The wheat harvest in France was squeezed between rain events due to a very wet July.
EU Wheat: Production Estimates Rise with Harvest but Output Remains Below Average
The USDAs August estimate for wheat in the European Union (EU) is 133.5 million tons from
25.8 million hectares. Production is estimated up 1 percent or 1.4 million tons from last month
while area is estimated down 1 percent or 0.2 million hectares. Compared to last year, the
2011/12 crop is estimated to be down 2 percent or 2.1 million tons, while production is 0.6
million tons below the 5-year-average. Yield is estimated at 5.18 tons per hectare (t/ha), edging
up from the 5.10 t/ha last month. Yield remains below the 5.25 t/ha five-year-average, and is
down considerably from the 5.67 t/ha record in 2008/09. The month-to-month revisions are
based on initial harvest results and favorable wheat conditions observed during July crop travel
in France. Severe spring drought prevailed in Northern Europes four biggest wheat producers:
France, Germany, United Kingdom (UK) and Poland.
Frances harvest was well underway during July and the results were higher than earlier
expected. Production is estimated at 34.5 million tons, up 3 percent or 1.2 million tons from last
month, but 10 percent below last year. Frances soft-wheat area is concentrated around Paris.
This areas heavy soils retained moisture better than expected and early June rainfall arrived to
benefit later-developing wheat fields that were still in the grain-fill stage. Additional rainfall in
2
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis
August 2011
July prolonged the harvest and created quality worries. Farther south in central France, where
the durum wheat crop is concentrated, rainfall arrived too late. Durum, which comprises a small
fraction of the wheat crop, was farther advanced and did not benefit from the June rainfall.
Germany, the EUs second-largest wheat producer, received precipitation amounts similar to
northern France but its soils are sandier than Frances soils, making retention and hence crop
recovery more difficult. Soil moisture wasnt stored as well in the lighter sandy soils.
Germanys wheat harvest typically begins in late July, but was delayed by persistent rains. The
German crop is estimated to be unchanged from last month at 22.2 million tons, 6 percent below
the five-year average. (For more information, contact Bryan Purcell at 202-690-0138.)
Russia Wheat: High Winter-Wheat Yields and Favorable Spring-Wheat Prospects
The USDA forecasts Russia wheat production for 2011/12 at 56.0 million tons, up 3.0 million or
6 percent from last month and up 14.5 million or 35 percent from last year. Area is estimated at
26.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month but down 0.6 million from last year. Winter
wheat accounts for less than half of total wheat area but for over 60 percent of production due to
inherently higher yield. Total-wheat yield is forecast at 2.15 tons per hectare against the 5-year
average of 2.01 tons per hectare.
Weekly harvest-progress reports from the Ministry of Agriculture indicate that yield is up 35
percent from the same date last year. Wheat harvest is in the final stages in the Southern and
North Caucasus Districts, which together produce about half of the countrys winter wheat.
Harvest is about half complete in the Central District and in the early stages in the Volga
District; these districts account for the remainder of the winter wheat and reported yields are up
substantially from last year. Harvest has not yet begun in the Ural and Siberian Districts, where
the majority of Russias spring wheat is grown. Weather has been generally favorable for spring
wheat throughout the country with the exception of Altai Krai in the western part of the Siberian
District. Dryness has prevailed in Altai, which typically produces about 15 percent of Russias
spring wheat (or 6 percent of the total wheat). (For more information, contact Mark Lindeman
at 202-690-0143.)
Ukraine Wheat: Ministry Reports Yield Up 20 Percent from Last Year
The USDA forecasts Ukraine wheat production for 2011/12 at 21.0 million tons, up 3.0 million
or 17 percent from last month and up 4.1 million or 24 percent from last year. Estimated area is
increased by 0.1 million hectares to 6.7 million, against 6.3 million hectares last year based on
data from the State Statistical Committee. Yield is estimated at 3.13 tons per hectare, up 15
percent from last month and up 17 percent from last year. According to harvest-progress reports
from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, bunker-weight yield (prior to cleaning and drying) is up
about 20 percent from last year as of August 5, with harvest 91 percent complete. Due to
excessive rain during the harvest campaign, higher-than-normal grain moisture could result in
lower final net weight than usual. The harvest data indicate that producers were able to achieve
high wheat yields despite persistent spring dryness and unfavorable harvest weather. (For more
information, contact Mark Lindeman at 202-690-0143.)
Brazil Corn: Production Forecast Higher on Area Increase
3
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis
August 2011
Brazils 2011/12 corn production is forecast at 57.0 million tons, up 2.0 million from last month
and last year. Planting begins next month for the upcoming season and area is forecast at 13.5
million hectares, up 0.5 million from last month. Domestic corn prices have been rising
recently and over the last year, and industry analysts have been increasing their forecasts for the
crop. The rising prices have pushed expected returns for corn above those of soybeans in some
regions. Prices for cotton have declined recently and some of the area going to corn is likely to
come from that crop. (For more information contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)
The rapeseed harvest in Northern Germany on July 29th. Rapeseed yields are expected to
vary considerably in Germany this year.
4
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis
August 2011
(1.2 million tons) in production from last year and a 19 percent drop (1.1 million tons) from the
five-year average. Area remains unchanged from last month. Yield is estimated at 3.13 t/ha
versus 3.34 t/ha last month. France, typically the EUs second largest rapeseed producer, is
estimated to overtake Germany with 4.8 million tons, 0.6 million above last month, and
equivalent to last year and its five-year average. Area is unchanged from last month at 1.5
million hectares, while yield is 3.20 t/ha versus 2.80 t/ha last month. Other month-to-month
rapeseed production changes include increases (in thousand tons) in Bulgaria (+80) and the UK
(+100), but decreases to the Czech Republic (-70), Denmark (-30), Hungary (-70), Poland (-200),
Romania (-80) and Slovakia (-40).
Almost all rapeseed in northern Europe is planted during a narrow window in mid- to late
August. It is typically the first crop planted in the fall and often competes for area with the
harvest of a prior crop or the planting of a wheat crop. A delayed harvest on the field before
rapeseed is planted or a rainy August can drastically reduce rapeseed yield potential.
Frances rapeseed crop proved surprisingly resilient in 2011/12. Crop assessment travel and
initial estimates during July indicated the crop to be in much better condition at harvest than
expected. While the spring drought was severe, the heavy soils retained water and spotty
showers sustained the crop. Where fewer pods developed, more seeds within the pods were
produced. France had favorable autumn 2010 weather with little to interfere or delay rapeseed
sowing.
Conversely, the German crop was planted late due to excessive rainfall. The 2010/11 wheat crop
was harvested late and the subsequent 2011/12 rapeseed crop was sown late. Winter arrived
early and was severe, particularly during February when low temperatures occurred with the
absence of snow cover in eastern regions. Finally, drought developed during the early spring.
According to famers and rapeseed experts, the difference between a good and a poor rapeseed
crop is in the autumn establishment; everything else is contingent upon the fall growth. Because
of its poor start in autumn, the German rapeseed crop was much more susceptible to the adverse
weather conditions that followed than was the French crop.
Rapeseed is the most important oilseed crop in the EU. In the years from 2000 to 2010 area
increased 41 percent before falling in 2011 by 0.2 million hectares to 6.8 million hectares. The
predominant push has come from the EUs drive for more renewable energy, including biofuels,
of which a significant portion is biodiesel from rapeseed oil. (For more information, contact
Bryan Purcell at 202-690-0139.)
5
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis
August 2011
6
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis
August 2011
This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Services (FAS) global network of
agricultural attachs and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign
source materials, and the analysis of economic data and satellite imagery. Estimates of foreign
area, yield and production are from the International Production Assessment Branch, FAS, and
are reviewed by USDAs Inter-Agency Commodity Estimates Committee. Estimates of U.S.
area, yield and production are from USDAs National Agricultural Statistics Service. Numbers
within the report may not add to totals because of rounding. This report reflects official USDA
estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-497),
August 11, 2011.
Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information Service. Download
an order form at http://www.ntis.gov/products/specialty/usda/fas_a-g.asp, or call NTIS at
1-800-363-2068.
The FAS International Production Assessment Branch prepared this report. The next issue of
World Agricultural Production will be released after 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time, September 12,
2011.
Conversion Table
Metric tons to bushels
Wheat, soybeans
Corn, sorghum, rye
Barley
Oats
=
=
=
=
MT * 36.7437
MT * 39.36825
MT * 45.929625
MT * 68.894438
MT * 4.592917
MT * 22.04622
=
=
2.471044 acres
2.204622 pounds
7
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis
August 2011
GENERAL INFORMATION
Director
Deputy Director
Deputy Director/SIA Manager
USDA Remote Sensing Advisor
Sr. Agricultural Economist
Program Analyst
202-690-0131
202-720-2974
202-690-0134
202-720-1280
202-720-0873
202-720-0886
derrick.williams@fas.usda.gov
tom.stclair@fas.usda.gov
curt.reynoldsc@fas.usda.gov
glenn.bethel@fas.usda.gov
paul.provance@fas.usda.gov
mary.jackson@fas.usda.gov
202-720-0107
202-690-0138
202-690-0143
202-720-0881
202-690-0133
202-720-7339
denise.mcwilliams@fas.usda.gov
bryan.purcell@fas.usda.gov
mark.lindeman@fas.usda.gov
arnella.trent@fas.usda.gov
paulette.sandene@fas.usda.gov
mita.dath@fas.usda.gov
202-690-0134
202-720-7366
202-720-1071
202-690-0135
202-260-8109
curt.reynoldsc@fas.usda.gov
michael.shean@fas.usda.gov
robert.tetrault@fas.usda.gov
james.crutchfield@fas.usda.gov
william.baker@fas.usda.gov
8
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis
August 2011
World
-
Total
Foreign
North
America
North
America
North
America
EU-27
-
Former
Soviet
Former
Soviet
Asia
(WAP)
Asia
(WAP)
Asia
(WAP)
Asia
(WAP)
Asia
(WAP)
South
America
South
America
Selected
Other
Selected
Other
Selected
Other
All
Others
none
-
none
-
United
States
Canada
-
Mexico
-
none
-
Russia
-
Ukraine
-
China
-
India
-
Indonesia
Pakistan
Thailand
Argentina
Brazil
-
Australia
South
Africa
Turkey
-
none
-
684.4
624.0
60.4
26.8
4.1
138.8
61.8
20.9
115.1
80.7
nr
24.0
nr
11.0
5.0
21.9
2.0
18.5
93.4
2010/11 prel.
648.2
588.1
60.1
23.2
3.7
135.6
41.5
16.8
115.2
80.8
nr
23.9
nr
15.0
5.9
26.0
1.5
17.0
82.0
Jul
662.4
605.1
57.3
21.5
3.8
132.1
53.0
18.0
115.5
84.0
nr
24.0
nr
15.0
4.8
25.0
1.7
18.5
88.2
Aug
672.1
615.6
56.5
21.5
3.7
133.5
56.0
21.0
117.0
85.9
nr
24.0
nr
13.5
4.8
25.0
1.7
18.5
89.5
2009/10
1,110.2
761.4
348.8
22.5
27.3
155.0
31.8
24.1
163.6
33.9
6.9
3.6
4.2
28.5
58.4
11.1
13.9
11.2
165.3
2010/11 prel.
1,092.1
761.9
330.2
22.1
27.9
139.6
16.4
21.4
179.2
42.0
6.8
3.6
4.1
30.2
57.4
13.6
12.4
10.1
175.0
Jul
1,150.3
795.8
354.5
22.8
31.7
143.4
29.4
24.4
184.3
40.3
8.1
3.6
4.2
33.1
57.3
13.4
13.0
10.7
176.1
Aug
1,136.3
797.5
338.8
22.5
31.7
142.4
29.4
26.3
184.3
40.4
8.1
3.6
4.2
33.5
59.3
13.4
13.0
10.7
174.6
2009/10
440.1
432.9
7.1
nr
0.2
1.9
0.6
0.1
136.6
89.1
36.4
6.8
20.3
0.7
7.7
0.1
nr
0.4
132.2
2010/11 prel.
451.2
443.6
7.6
nr
0.2
1.9
0.7
0.1
137.0
95.3
37.1
4.7
20.3
1.1
9.4
0.6
nr
0.5
135.0
Jul
456.3
450.3
6.0
nr
0.1
1.9
0.7
0.1
138.0
97.0
37.6
6.8
20.8
0.9
7.9
0.7
nr
0.4
137.4
Aug
456.2
450.2
6.0
nr
0.1
1.9
0.7
0.1
138.0
97.0
37.3
6.8
20.8
0.9
7.9
0.7
nr
0.4
137.6
2009/10
2,234.6
1,818.4
416.3
49.3
31.6
295.8
94.2
45.1
415.3
203.7
43.3
34.4
24.4
40.2
71.1
33.2
15.8
30.0
390.9
2010/11 prel.
2,191.5
1,793.6
397.9
45.2
31.7
277.0
58.6
38.4
431.3
218.1
43.9
32.2
24.3
46.4
72.7
40.2
13.9
27.5
392.0
Jul
2,269.1
1,851.2
417.8
44.3
35.6
277.4
83.1
42.5
437.8
221.3
45.7
34.4
25.0
49.0
70.0
39.1
14.7
29.6
401.7
Aug
2,264.7
1,863.3
401.4
44.0
35.5
277.8
86.1
47.4
439.3
223.3
45.4
34.4
25.0
47.9
72.0
39.1
14.7
29.6
401.7
2009/10
442.3
343.4
98.9
16.0
0.6
29.7
8.0
9.3
57.8
32.4
9.4
5.2
0.6
57.9
71.5
2.6
1.2
1.5
39.5
2010/11 prel.
452.1
351.7
100.4
16.3
0.6
28.9
7.2
9.9
57.7
34.6
9.7
4.8
0.6
54.0
79.4
3.6
1.7
1.8
40.6
Jul
455.5
359.2
96.3
16.7
0.6
27.5
10.9
11.4
57.2
35.8
10.3
5.6
0.7
57.1
76.5
3.9
1.8
1.9
41.4
Aug
451.4
359.8
91.7
16.7
0.6
28.0
10.9
10.9
57.2
35.7
10.2
5.6
0.7
57.1
77.2
4.1
1.8
1.9
41.2
2009/10
101.4
89.2
12.2
nr
0.4
1.1
nr
nr
32.0
23.0
0.0
9.6
0.0
1.0
5.5
1.8
0.0
1.8
13.1
2010/11 prel.
114.6
96.5
18.1
nr
0.7
1.1
nr
nr
30.5
25.4
0.0
8.8
0.0
1.3
8.5
4.2
0.1
2.1
13.8
Jul
123.2
107.2
16.0
nr
1.1
1.7
nr
nr
33.0
27.0
0.0
10.3
0.0
1.4
9.3
4.5
0.1
2.9
15.9
Aug
122.7
106.2
16.6
nr
1.1
1.7
nr
nr
33.0
27.0
0.0
10.3
0.0
1.4
8.7
4.5
0.1
2.9
15.5
2011/12 proj.
Coarse Grains
2011/12 proj.
Rice, Milled
2011/12 proj.
Total Grains
2011/12 proj.
Oilseeds
2011/12 proj.
Cotton
2011/12 proj.
August 2011
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
Aug
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Aug
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
MMT
MMT
Aug
Percent
Percent
227.31
222.48
223.56
222.41
3.01
2.91
2.96
3.02
684.40
648.19
662.42
672.09
9.67
1.46
23.90
3.69
United States
20.19
19.28
19.09
18.59
2.99
3.12
3.00
3.04
60.37
60.10
57.32
56.51
-0.81
-1.40
-3.59
-5.97
Total Foreign
207.12
203.20
204.47
203.83
3.01
2.89
2.96
3.02
624.03
588.09
605.10
615.58
10.48
1.73
27.49
4.67
24.29
24.32
24.40
24.40
4.74
4.74
4.73
4.80
115.12
115.18
115.50
117.00
1.50
1.30
1.82
1.58
6.35
World
none
China
South Asia
27.75
28.36
29.40
29.40
2.91
2.85
2.86
2.92
80.68
80.80
84.00
85.93
1.93
2.30
5.13
Pakistan
9.05
9.03
9.00
9.00
2.65
2.65
2.67
2.67
24.00
23.90
24.00
24.00
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.42
Afghanistan
2.58
2.35
2.10
2.10
1.65
1.57
1.19
1.19
4.25
3.70
2.50
2.50
0.00
0.00
-1.20
-32.43
28.70
26.61
26.00
26.00
2.15
1.56
2.04
2.15
61.77
41.51
53.00
56.00
3.00
5.66
14.49
34.91
6.75
6.28
6.60
6.70
3.09
2.68
2.73
3.13
20.87
16.84
18.00
21.00
3.00
16.67
4.16
24.67
14.75
14.50
14.00
14.00
1.16
0.67
1.07
1.14
17.05
9.70
15.00
16.00
1.00
6.67
6.30
64.95
1.40
1.40
1.40
1.40
4.43
4.64
4.64
4.64
6.20
6.50
6.50
6.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
25.82
25.95
25.92
25.75
5.38
5.23
5.10
5.18
138.82
135.61
132.12
133.49
1.36
1.03
-2.12
-1.57
France
5.15
5.43
5.49
5.50
7.44
7.04
6.08
6.27
38.32
38.21
33.35
34.50
1.15
3.45
-3.71
-9.70
Germany
3.23
3.23
3.25
3.25
7.81
7.37
6.83
6.83
25.19
23.78
22.20
22.20
0.00
0.00
-1.58
-6.66
United Kingdom
1.78
1.94
2.00
2.00
7.93
7.67
7.38
7.40
14.08
14.88
14.75
14.80
0.05
0.34
-0.08
-0.52
Poland
2.35
2.41
2.50
2.42
4.17
3.87
3.80
3.88
9.79
9.30
9.50
9.40
-0.10
-1.05
0.10
1.08
Spain
1.77
1.94
1.97
1.99
2.71
3.02
3.24
3.14
4.81
5.84
6.40
6.25
-0.15
-2.34
0.41
7.09
Italy
1.90
1.81
1.67
1.67
3.53
3.59
3.66
3.66
6.70
6.49
6.10
6.10
0.00
0.00
-0.39
-6.01
Denmark
0.74
0.77
0.74
0.74
8.04
6.61
7.57
7.30
5.94
5.06
5.60
5.40
-0.20
-3.57
0.34
6.80
Hungary
1.14
1.01
0.98
0.95
3.85
3.76
4.08
4.21
4.40
3.80
4.00
4.00
0.00
0.00
0.20
5.26
Romania
2.15
2.03
1.90
1.93
2.47
2.82
3.37
3.47
5.30
5.72
6.40
6.70
0.30
4.69
0.98
17.13
Bulgaria
1.25
1.11
1.10
1.04
3.19
3.60
3.45
3.93
3.98
4.00
3.80
4.10
0.30
7.89
0.11
2.63
9.64
8.27
8.00
8.00
2.79
2.80
2.69
2.69
26.85
23.17
21.50
21.50
0.00
0.00
-1.67
-7.20
14.03
13.35
14.00
14.00
1.56
1.95
1.79
1.79
21.92
26.00
25.00
25.00
0.00
0.00
-1.00
-3.85
Turkey
7.80
8.00
7.70
7.70
2.37
2.13
2.40
2.40
18.45
17.00
18.50
18.50
0.00
0.00
1.50
8.82
Iran
6.65
7.00
6.80
6.80
2.03
2.21
2.02
2.02
13.49
15.50
13.75
13.75
0.00
0.00
-1.75
-11.29
Syria
1.50
1.35
1.50
1.50
2.40
2.67
2.17
2.17
3.60
3.60
3.25
3.25
0.00
0.00
-0.35
-9.72
Egypt
1.32
1.26
1.32
1.32
6.45
5.71
6.59
6.59
8.52
7.20
8.70
8.70
0.00
0.00
1.50
20.83
Morocco
2.98
2.85
3.05
3.05
2.15
1.71
1.93
1.93
6.40
4.89
5.90
5.90
0.00
0.00
1.01
20.73
Argentina
3.65
4.40
5.20
4.70
3.01
3.41
2.88
2.87
11.00
15.00
15.00
13.50
-1.50
-10.00
-1.50
-10.00
18.48
17.91
18.08
18.01
2.44
2.34
2.37
2.39
45.05
41.99
42.88
43.06
0.19
0.43
1.07
2.54
India
Canada
Australia
Middle East
North Africa
Others
August 2011
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
Aug
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Aug
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
MMT
MMT
Aug
Percent
Percent
310.76
309.24
314.24
313.98
3.57
3.53
3.66
3.62
1,110.17
1,092.11
1,150.34
1,136.32
-14.02
-1.22
44.21
4.05
United States
36.32
36.52
37.69
37.37
9.60
9.04
9.41
9.07
348.76
330.23
354.52
338.81
-15.71
-4.43
8.58
2.60
Total Foreign
274.43
272.72
276.55
276.61
2.77
2.79
2.88
2.88
761.42
761.88
795.82
797.51
1.69
0.21
35.63
4.68
33.38
34.72
35.32
35.32
4.90
5.16
5.22
5.22
163.63
179.16
184.26
184.31
0.05
0.03
5.15
2.87
13.93
14.25
13.94
14.44
4.19
4.03
4.11
4.11
58.41
57.43
57.33
59.33
2.00
3.49
1.90
3.32
4.20
5.26
5.31
5.42
6.80
5.75
6.24
6.19
28.53
30.25
33.11
33.51
0.40
1.21
3.26
10.79
World
none
China
South America
Brazil
Argentina
32.53
30.19
30.91
30.73
4.77
4.62
4.64
4.63
155.05
139.57
143.37
142.39
-0.98
-0.68
2.82
2.02
France
4.21
3.77
3.80
3.73
7.52
7.22
6.94
6.82
31.65
27.18
26.36
25.45
-0.91
-3.45
-1.73
-6.35
Germany
3.68
3.29
3.26
3.28
6.67
6.15
5.91
5.68
24.56
20.26
19.25
18.61
-0.64
-3.32
-1.65
-8.13
Poland
6.16
6.01
5.96
6.08
3.24
2.95
3.09
2.95
19.94
17.74
18.43
17.92
-0.51
-2.77
0.19
1.04
Spain
4.13
3.94
4.20
3.99
2.93
3.28
3.42
3.60
12.10
12.91
14.37
14.36
-0.01
-0.07
1.45
11.22
Italy
1.43
1.37
1.49
1.53
7.20
7.61
7.41
7.45
10.32
10.41
11.03
11.41
0.38
3.48
1.01
9.68
Hungary
1.72
1.56
1.75
1.70
5.29
5.46
5.57
5.72
9.09
8.54
9.77
9.73
-0.03
-0.35
1.20
14.02
United Kingdom
1.30
1.07
1.06
1.06
5.80
5.64
5.53
5.56
7.54
6.06
5.84
5.87
0.03
0.50
-0.20
-3.22
Romania
3.14
3.03
3.18
3.23
2.91
3.46
3.29
3.41
9.14
10.48
10.45
10.99
0.54
5.17
0.51
4.90
EU-27
13.80
15.30
15.30
1.93
1.19
1.92
1.92
31.84
16.42
29.40
29.40
0.00
0.00
12.98
79.09
Ukraine
8.06
7.64
7.85
7.94
2.99
2.81
3.11
3.32
24.14
21.44
24.40
26.33
1.93
7.89
4.88
22.77
Kazakhstan
2.21
1.98
2.19
1.99
1.49
0.92
1.32
1.40
3.30
1.82
2.88
2.78
-0.10
-3.48
0.96
52.89
81.09
81.38
81.84
81.74
1.33
1.42
1.39
1.38
107.75
115.51
113.64
112.50
-1.14
-1.00
-3.00
-2.60
18.25
18.35
18.35
18.35
1.53
1.53
1.53
1.53
27.96
28.10
28.10
28.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
South Africa
4.15
3.78
3.90
3.90
3.35
3.30
3.34
3.34
13.88
12.45
12.99
12.99
0.00
0.00
0.55
4.38
Ethiopia
4.93
4.93
4.93
4.93
1.63
1.81
1.81
1.81
8.05
8.93
8.93
8.93
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Egypt
1.05
1.06
1.07
0.97
6.99
7.13
7.25
7.18
7.34
7.56
7.76
6.96
-0.80
-10.31
-0.60
-7.94
27.01
27.09
26.55
26.45
1.25
1.55
1.52
1.53
33.89
42.00
40.30
40.37
0.07
0.17
-1.63
-3.88
Indonesia
3.06
2.85
3.15
3.15
2.25
2.39
2.57
2.57
6.90
6.80
8.10
8.10
0.00
0.00
1.30
19.12
Philippines
2.52
2.65
2.68
2.68
2.47
2.75
2.69
2.69
6.23
7.28
7.20
7.20
0.00
0.00
-0.08
-1.03
Thailand
1.03
1.01
1.03
1.03
4.04
4.01
4.08
4.08
4.15
4.05
4.20
4.20
0.00
0.00
0.15
3.70
Mexico
8.23
9.11
9.21
9.21
3.32
3.06
3.45
3.45
27.27
27.87
31.73
31.73
0.00
0.00
3.86
13.85
Canada
5.23
4.60
5.03
5.03
4.30
4.80
4.54
4.48
22.48
22.07
22.82
22.52
-0.30
-1.31
0.46
2.06
Australia
5.96
5.84
5.83
5.83
1.86
2.33
2.29
2.29
11.10
13.61
13.38
13.38
0.00
0.00
-0.23
-1.69
Russia
Africa
Nigeria
India
Southeast Asia
Turkey
4.23
4.17
3.98
3.98
2.64
2.42
2.69
2.69
11.18
10.10
10.70
10.70
0.00
0.00
0.60
5.94
Others
25.25
26.19
26.45
26.39
2.60
2.54
2.61
2.61
65.56
66.54
69.01
68.78
-0.24
-0.34
2.24
3.36
August 2011
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
Aug
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Aug
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
MMT
MMT
Aug
Percent
Percent
157.76
162.58
167.02
167.44
5.16
5.05
5.22
5.14
813.44
821.39
872.39
860.52
-11.88
-1.36
39.13
4.76
United States
32.17
32.96
34.35
34.15
10.34
9.59
9.96
9.61
332.55
316.17
342.15
328.03
-14.12
-4.13
11.87
3.75
Total Foreign
125.60
129.62
132.66
133.28
3.83
3.90
4.00
4.00
480.89
505.22
530.24
532.48
2.25
0.42
27.26
5.40
31.18
32.45
33.00
33.00
5.07
5.33
5.39
5.39
158.00
173.00
178.00
178.00
0.00
0.00
5.00
2.89
12.93
13.30
13.00
13.50
4.34
4.14
4.23
4.22
56.10
55.00
55.00
57.00
2.00
3.64
2.00
3.64
2.75
3.20
3.40
3.40
8.47
6.88
7.65
7.65
23.30
22.00
26.00
26.00
0.00
0.00
4.00
18.18
Mexico
6.28
7.00
7.05
7.05
3.24
2.94
3.40
3.40
20.37
20.60
24.00
24.00
0.00
0.00
3.40
16.50
EU-27
8.28
8.00
8.59
8.73
6.87
6.99
6.90
6.88
56.95
55.90
59.29
60.09
0.81
1.36
4.19
7.50
France
1.68
1.53
1.60
1.52
9.10
9.00
9.10
9.21
15.29
13.79
14.56
14.00
-0.56
-3.85
0.21
1.53
Italy
0.93
0.92
0.96
1.00
9.30
9.60
9.49
9.49
8.65
8.78
9.11
9.49
0.38
4.16
0.71
8.03
Hungary
1.18
1.07
1.25
1.25
6.36
6.55
6.56
6.56
7.50
7.00
8.20
8.20
0.00
0.00
1.20
17.14
Romania
2.35
2.25
2.45
2.55
3.19
3.87
3.59
3.61
7.50
8.70
8.80
9.20
0.40
4.55
0.50
5.75
Poland
0.27
0.30
0.33
0.34
6.23
5.72
6.00
5.74
1.71
1.72
1.98
1.95
-0.03
-1.52
0.24
13.70
India
8.33
8.55
8.60
8.50
2.01
2.49
2.44
2.47
16.72
21.28
21.00
21.00
0.00
0.00
-0.28
-1.32
Canada
1.14
1.20
1.22
1.22
8.37
9.74
9.30
9.05
9.56
11.71
11.30
11.00
-0.30
-2.65
-0.71
-6.10
Indonesia
3.06
2.85
3.15
3.15
2.25
2.39
2.57
2.57
6.90
6.80
8.10
8.10
0.00
0.00
1.30
19.12
Ukraine
2.09
2.65
3.30
3.50
5.02
4.50
4.70
4.71
10.49
11.92
15.50
16.50
1.00
6.45
4.58
38.43
Serbia
1.20
1.23
1.30
1.30
5.33
5.53
5.38
5.38
6.40
6.80
7.00
7.00
0.00
0.00
0.20
2.94
Egypt
0.84
0.85
0.86
0.76
7.48
7.65
7.79
7.76
6.28
6.50
6.70
5.90
-0.80
-11.94
-0.60
-9.23
Philippines
2.52
2.65
2.68
2.68
2.47
2.75
2.69
2.69
6.23
7.28
7.20
7.20
0.00
0.00
-0.08
-1.03
Vietnam
1.13
1.20
1.25
1.25
4.09
4.17
4.32
4.32
4.61
5.00
5.40
5.40
0.00
0.00
0.40
8.00
Thailand
1.00
0.98
1.00
1.00
4.10
4.08
4.15
4.15
4.10
4.00
4.15
4.15
0.00
0.00
0.15
3.75
Russia
1.37
1.42
1.60
1.60
2.90
2.17
3.44
3.44
3.96
3.08
5.50
5.50
0.00
0.00
2.43
78.86
South Africa
3.26
2.90
3.00
3.00
4.11
4.14
4.17
4.17
13.42
12.00
12.50
12.50
0.00
0.00
0.50
4.17
Nigeria
4.90
4.90
4.90
4.90
1.79
1.78
1.78
1.78
8.76
8.70
8.70
8.70
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Ethiopia
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
1.95
2.20
2.20
2.20
3.90
4.40
4.40
4.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Zimbabwe
1.10
1.35
1.60
1.60
0.59
0.74
0.88
0.88
0.65
1.00
1.40
1.40
0.00
0.00
0.40
40.00
World
none
China
South America
Brazil
Argentina
Sub-Saharan Africa
Turkey
0.50
0.49
0.45
0.45
8.00
7.35
8.00
8.00
4.00
3.60
3.60
3.60
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Others
29.74
30.45
30.72
30.70
2.02
2.12
2.13
2.12
60.20
64.66
65.50
65.04
-0.46
-0.70
0.38
0.59
August 2011
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
Aug
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Aug
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
MMT
MMT
Aug
Percent
Percent
55.69
50.75
51.12
50.61
2.70
2.44
2.58
2.62
150.49
124.01
131.65
132.35
0.70
0.53
8.35
6.73
United States
1.26
1.00
1.00
0.97
3.93
3.93
3.74
3.79
4.95
3.93
3.76
3.66
-0.10
-2.55
-0.26
-6.68
Total Foreign
54.43
49.75
50.11
49.64
2.67
2.41
2.55
2.59
145.54
120.08
127.89
128.69
0.80
0.62
8.61
7.17
85.63
World
none
Russia
9.09
7.21
7.90
7.90
1.97
1.16
1.96
1.96
17.88
8.35
15.50
15.50
0.00
0.00
7.15
EU-27
13.94
12.47
12.65
12.31
4.46
4.25
4.12
4.18
62.15
53.02
52.10
51.51
-0.59
-1.13
-1.50
-2.84
Germany
1.88
1.64
1.63
1.65
6.54
6.29
5.52
5.33
12.29
10.33
9.00
8.80
-0.20
-2.22
-1.53
-14.79
France
1.88
1.58
1.55
1.55
6.92
6.39
5.55
5.42
13.00
10.10
8.60
8.40
-0.20
-2.33
-1.70
-16.85
Spain
3.02
2.87
3.10
2.90
2.41
2.84
3.00
3.16
7.30
8.15
9.30
9.15
-0.15
-1.61
1.00
12.26
United Kingdom
1.14
0.92
0.90
0.90
5.83
5.69
5.56
5.56
6.67
5.24
5.00
5.00
0.00
0.00
-0.24
-4.65
Denmark
0.59
0.59
0.60
0.60
5.77
5.04
5.55
5.55
3.42
2.99
3.30
3.30
0.00
0.00
0.31
10.33
Poland
1.16
1.12
1.10
1.10
3.44
3.15
3.18
3.18
3.98
3.53
3.50
3.50
0.00
0.00
-0.03
-0.85
Czech Republic
0.45
0.39
0.39
0.37
4.41
4.08
4.36
4.46
2.00
1.58
1.70
1.65
-0.05
-2.94
0.07
4.17
Finland
0.60
0.41
0.41
0.41
3.63
3.26
3.66
3.66
2.18
1.33
1.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.17
12.61
Sweden
0.36
0.32
0.32
0.32
4.65
3.86
4.38
4.38
1.68
1.23
1.40
1.40
0.00
0.00
0.17
14.01
Italy
0.31
0.27
0.32
0.32
3.42
3.62
3.60
3.60
1.05
0.99
1.17
1.17
0.00
0.00
0.17
17.56
Hungary
0.32
0.29
0.29
0.26
3.22
3.37
3.38
3.69
1.03
0.97
0.98
0.96
-0.02
-2.04
-0.01
-0.62
Austria
0.18
0.17
0.16
0.15
4.59
4.60
4.60
4.47
0.84
0.78
0.75
0.68
-0.07
-8.80
-0.09
-12.08
Ukraine
4.99
4.32
3.70
3.70
2.37
1.97
2.03
2.30
11.83
8.48
7.50
8.50
1.00
13.33
0.02
0.19
Canada
2.92
2.39
2.60
2.60
3.26
3.19
3.15
3.15
9.52
7.61
8.20
8.20
0.00
0.00
0.60
7.82
Australia
4.45
4.10
4.00
4.00
1.78
2.27
2.25
2.25
7.91
9.30
9.00
9.00
0.00
0.00
-0.30
-3.23
Turkey
3.40
3.35
3.20
3.20
1.91
1.76
2.03
2.03
6.50
5.90
6.50
6.50
0.00
0.00
0.60
10.17
China
0.63
0.65
0.68
0.68
3.70
3.85
3.78
3.85
2.32
2.50
2.55
2.60
0.05
1.96
0.10
4.00
Iran
1.68
1.70
1.65
1.65
2.06
2.06
1.82
1.82
3.45
3.50
3.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
-0.50
-14.29
Morocco
2.18
1.92
1.90
1.90
1.74
1.34
1.63
1.63
3.80
2.57
3.10
3.10
0.00
0.00
0.53
20.62
Kazakhstan
1.85
1.60
1.80
1.60
1.36
0.81
1.22
1.31
2.52
1.30
2.20
2.10
-0.10
-4.55
0.80
61.54
Ethiopia
0.98
0.98
0.98
0.98
1.61
1.44
1.44
1.44
1.57
1.40
1.40
1.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Belarus
0.50
0.60
0.65
0.65
3.30
2.33
2.77
2.77
1.65
1.40
1.80
1.80
0.00
0.00
0.40
28.57
India
0.78
0.74
0.75
0.75
2.17
1.82
2.00
2.09
1.69
1.35
1.50
1.57
0.07
4.67
0.22
16.30
Argentina
0.50
0.75
0.79
0.90
2.70
3.93
3.42
3.44
1.36
2.95
2.70
3.10
0.40
14.81
0.15
5.08
Mexico
0.23
0.31
0.31
0.31
2.17
2.52
2.52
2.52
0.50
0.78
0.78
0.78
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Iraq
0.50
1.25
1.13
1.13
0.90
0.92
0.88
0.88
0.45
1.15
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
-0.15
-13.04
Algeria
1.24
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.94
1.50
1.50
1.50
2.40
1.50
1.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Others
4.58
4.42
4.44
4.39
1.76
1.59
1.71
1.72
8.05
7.03
7.56
7.53
-0.04
-0.46
0.50
7.11
August 2011
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
Aug
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Aug
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
MMT
MMT
Aug
Percent
Percent
11.38
10.69
11.52
11.39
2.07
1.86
1.93
1.98
23.60
19.86
22.27
22.50
0.24
1.06
2.64
13.31
United States
0.56
0.51
0.38
0.38
2.42
2.31
2.17
2.21
1.35
1.18
0.82
0.83
0.01
1.58
-0.34
-29.20
Total Foreign
10.83
10.18
11.14
11.01
2.06
1.84
1.92
1.97
22.25
18.68
21.45
21.67
0.22
1.04
2.99
15.99
Russia
3.37
2.90
3.50
3.50
1.60
1.11
1.43
1.43
5.40
3.22
5.00
5.00
0.00
0.00
1.78
55.38
Canada
0.98
0.84
1.05
1.05
2.97
2.73
2.76
2.76
2.91
2.30
2.90
2.90
0.00
0.00
0.60
26.20
EU-27
2.91
2.72
2.74
2.72
2.95
2.71
2.77
2.89
8.58
7.37
7.57
7.85
0.27
3.60
0.48
6.46
Poland
0.53
0.54
0.54
0.56
2.70
2.47
2.41
2.41
1.42
1.34
1.30
1.35
0.05
3.85
0.02
1.12
Finland
0.34
0.28
0.28
0.28
3.54
2.90
2.95
3.45
1.21
0.81
0.81
0.95
0.14
17.28
0.14
17.87
Spain
0.56
0.54
0.54
0.52
1.65
1.89
1.94
2.10
0.92
1.02
1.04
1.08
0.04
3.85
0.06
6.19
Germany
0.16
0.14
0.14
0.16
5.07
4.24
4.29
4.14
0.83
0.60
0.60
0.65
0.05
8.33
0.05
8.70
Sweden
0.19
0.17
0.17
0.16
3.99
3.23
3.70
3.75
0.75
0.54
0.61
0.60
-0.01
-1.64
0.06
11.73
United Kingdom
0.13
0.12
0.13
0.13
5.77
5.52
5.53
5.76
0.74
0.69
0.69
0.72
0.03
4.20
0.04
5.11
France
0.12
0.10
0.10
0.10
4.90
4.57
4.55
4.50
0.57
0.45
0.45
0.45
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.44
Italy
0.13
0.11
0.12
0.12
2.34
2.45
2.44
2.40
0.31
0.28
0.29
0.29
0.01
1.75
0.01
3.94
Denmark
0.07
0.05
0.07
0.05
4.70
4.91
4.15
4.80
0.32
0.23
0.27
0.24
-0.03
-11.11
0.01
3.90
Romania
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.18
1.45
1.74
1.74
1.83
0.30
0.34
0.34
0.33
-0.01
-2.94
-0.01
-2.94
Czech Republic
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
3.32
2.65
2.88
3.33
0.17
0.14
0.15
0.15
0.00
0.00
0.01
8.70
Hungary
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.06
2.19
2.41
2.45
2.82
0.11
0.12
0.13
0.16
0.03
24.00
0.03
26.02
Austria
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
3.89
3.63
3.70
3.60
0.11
0.10
0.10
0.09
-0.01
-10.00
-0.01
-8.16
Ireland
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
7.30
7.63
7.47
7.25
0.15
0.15
0.14
0.15
0.00
2.11
0.00
0.00
Lithuania
0.06
0.07
0.07
0.07
2.23
1.34
2.00
2.00
0.14
0.09
0.13
0.13
0.00
0.00
0.04
49.43
Australia
0.87
0.92
1.00
1.00
1.36
1.63
1.60
1.60
1.18
1.50
1.60
1.60
0.00
0.00
0.10
6.67
Ukraine
0.42
0.31
0.40
0.29
1.76
1.47
1.50
1.90
0.73
0.46
0.60
0.55
-0.05
-8.33
0.09
20.09
China
0.23
0.24
0.24
0.24
1.78
1.75
1.75
1.75
0.41
0.42
0.42
0.42
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Belarus
0.25
0.25
0.28
0.28
3.20
2.80
2.91
2.91
0.80
0.70
0.80
0.80
0.00
0.00
0.10
14.29
Brazil
0.13
0.15
0.15
0.15
1.89
2.46
2.40
2.40
0.25
0.38
0.37
0.37
0.00
0.00
-0.01
-2.37
Argentina
0.14
0.30
0.22
0.22
1.31
2.00
1.57
1.57
0.18
0.60
0.35
0.35
0.00
0.00
-0.26
-42.50
Chile
0.08
0.08
0.10
0.10
5.01
4.50
4.60
4.60
0.38
0.36
0.46
0.46
0.00
0.00
0.10
27.78
Norway
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
3.36
3.36
3.36
3.36
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Turkey
0.09
0.10
0.10
0.10
2.34
2.21
2.21
2.21
0.22
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Kazakhstan
0.15
0.16
0.16
0.16
1.34
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.20
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Serbia
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
1.85
1.85
1.85
1.85
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Others
1.07
1.07
1.07
1.07
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.64
0.64
0.64
0.64
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
World
none
August 2011
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
Aug
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Aug
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
MMT
MMT
Aug
Percent
Percent
World
6.58
5.67
5.76
5.71
2.74
2.12
2.46
2.34
18.01
11.99
14.19
13.38
-0.81
-5.69
1.39
11.57
United States
0.10
0.11
0.10
0.10
1.75
1.77
1.71
1.71
0.18
0.19
0.17
0.17
0.00
0.00
-0.02
-11.11
Total Foreign
6.47
5.56
5.66
5.62
2.75
2.12
2.47
2.35
17.83
11.80
14.02
13.21
-0.81
-5.76
1.41
11.93
-4.17
none
2.80
2.59
2.57
2.54
3.56
3.01
3.20
2.94
9.96
7.79
8.23
7.47
-0.76
-9.20
-0.33
Poland
1.40
1.40
1.39
1.38
2.66
2.34
2.48
2.33
3.71
3.27
3.45
3.20
-0.25
-7.25
-0.07
-2.14
Germany
0.76
0.63
0.60
0.60
5.70
4.63
4.98
4.25
4.33
2.90
3.00
2.56
-0.44
-14.67
-0.34
-11.72
Spain
0.13
0.14
0.14
0.15
1.45
2.02
2.06
1.99
0.19
0.28
0.29
0.29
0.00
0.00
0.01
4.73
Lithuania
0.08
0.05
0.05
0.05
2.54
1.67
2.50
2.50
0.21
0.09
0.13
0.13
0.00
0.00
0.04
49.43
Latvia
0.06
0.04
0.04
0.04
2.75
2.50
2.76
2.76
0.16
0.10
0.11
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.01
10.53
France
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
5.20
5.10
4.83
4.83
0.13
0.15
0.14
0.14
0.00
0.00
-0.01
-5.41
Denmark
0.04
0.05
0.05
0.05
5.57
5.44
5.44
5.44
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Czech Republic
0.04
0.03
0.04
0.02
4.68
3.93
4.57
4.38
0.18
0.12
0.16
0.11
-0.06
-34.38
-0.01
-11.02
Austria
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
3.76
3.50
3.62
3.72
0.18
0.16
0.17
0.18
0.01
2.94
0.01
8.70
Sweden
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.03
5.92
4.72
5.60
5.60
0.22
0.12
0.14
0.14
0.00
0.00
0.02
18.64
Hungary
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.03
1.80
2.08
1.80
2.06
0.07
0.08
0.07
0.07
0.00
-5.56
-0.01
-9.33
Slovakia
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.01
2.85
2.12
2.71
3.38
0.06
0.04
0.06
0.04
-0.01
-22.81
0.01
22.22
Finland
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
2.48
2.76
2.80
2.80
0.06
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.45
United Kingdom
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
7.20
6.20
7.00
7.00
0.04
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.00
0.00
0.00
12.90
Romania
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
2.06
2.50
2.25
2.25
0.03
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.00
0.00
-0.01
-22.86
Greece
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
1.83
1.83
1.83
1.83
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Portugal
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.95
0.90
0.89
0.89
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
-5.56
Russia
2.15
1.76
1.80
1.80
2.02
0.93
1.67
1.67
4.33
1.64
3.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
1.36
82.70
Belarus
0.60
0.52
0.58
0.58
2.83
2.31
2.61
2.61
1.70
1.20
1.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.30
25.00
Ukraine
0.46
0.28
0.30
0.29
2.07
1.66
2.00
1.93
0.95
0.46
0.60
0.55
-0.05
-8.33
0.09
18.53
Canada
0.12
0.09
0.08
0.08
2.43
2.43
2.44
2.44
0.28
0.22
0.20
0.20
0.00
0.00
-0.02
-9.72
Turkey
0.14
0.13
0.13
0.13
2.49
2.08
2.08
2.08
0.34
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Argentina
0.05
0.02
0.04
0.04
1.15
1.67
1.43
1.43
0.06
0.04
0.05
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.01
25.00
Kazakhstan
0.06
0.07
0.07
0.07
1.23
0.71
0.71
0.71
0.08
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Australia
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.57
0.57
0.57
0.57
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Switzerland
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.67
6.67
6.67
6.67
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Others
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
1.36
1.39
1.39
1.39
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
EU-27
August 2011
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
Aug
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Aug
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
MMT
MMT
Aug
Percent
Percent
40.68
40.85
40.73
40.66
1.46
1.60
1.53
1.49
59.26
65.36
62.26
60.71
-1.55
-2.49
-4.65
-7.12
United States
2.23
1.95
1.86
1.78
4.35
4.51
4.10
3.44
9.73
8.77
7.62
6.11
-1.51
-19.79
-2.66
-30.33
Total Foreign
38.45
38.91
38.87
38.88
1.29
1.45
1.41
1.40
49.54
56.59
54.64
54.60
-0.04
-0.07
-1.99
-3.52
Nigeria
7.50
7.60
7.60
7.60
1.53
1.54
1.54
1.54
11.50
11.70
11.70
11.70
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Sudan
6.00
6.20
6.20
6.20
0.44
0.83
0.68
0.68
2.63
5.16
4.20
4.20
0.00
0.00
-0.96
-18.60
Ethiopia
1.55
1.55
1.55
1.55
1.34
1.68
1.68
1.68
2.08
2.60
2.60
2.60
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Burkina
1.62
1.62
1.62
1.62
0.94
1.20
1.11
1.11
1.52
1.95
1.80
1.80
0.00
0.00
-0.15
-7.69
Tanzania
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.79
0.94
0.94
0.94
0.71
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Niger
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
0.49
1.00
0.60
0.60
0.74
1.50
0.90
0.90
0.00
0.00
-0.60
-40.00
Uganda
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.31
1.60
1.68
1.61
1.61
0.50
0.52
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
-0.02
-3.85
Mozambique
0.61
0.62
0.62
0.62
0.62
0.62
0.62
0.62
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Ghana
0.34
0.34
0.34
0.34
1.03
1.06
1.03
1.03
0.35
0.36
0.35
0.35
0.00
0.00
-0.01
-2.78
South Africa
0.09
0.07
0.09
0.09
2.26
2.86
2.56
2.56
0.20
0.20
0.23
0.23
0.00
0.00
0.03
15.00
India
7.50
7.20
7.20
7.20
0.89
0.94
0.94
0.94
6.70
6.74
6.80
6.80
0.00
0.00
0.06
0.89
Pakistan
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Argentina
0.75
0.98
0.85
0.85
4.83
4.74
4.71
4.71
3.63
4.65
4.00
4.00
0.00
0.00
-0.65
-13.98
Brazil
0.79
0.72
0.70
0.70
2.34
2.51
2.43
2.43
1.85
1.79
1.70
1.70
0.00
0.00
-0.09
-5.24
Mexico
1.62
1.70
1.75
1.75
3.87
3.73
3.89
3.89
6.25
6.34
6.80
6.80
0.00
0.00
0.46
7.26
China
0.56
0.58
0.60
0.60
3.00
3.10
3.08
3.08
1.68
1.80
1.85
1.85
0.00
0.00
0.05
2.78
Australia
0.52
0.68
0.70
0.70
3.10
3.53
3.43
3.43
1.60
2.40
2.40
2.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Egypt
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
5.63
5.63
5.63
5.63
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
EU-27
0.12
0.12
0.13
0.14
5.22
5.51
5.47
5.52
0.62
0.63
0.72
0.76
0.04
5.54
0.13
20.19
France
0.06
0.05
0.05
0.06
5.40
5.66
5.50
5.64
0.31
0.30
0.28
0.31
0.04
12.73
0.01
3.33
Italy
0.04
0.04
0.06
0.06
6.08
6.61
6.16
6.16
0.24
0.27
0.39
0.39
0.00
0.00
0.12
43.17
Others
5.78
5.83
5.81
5.81
0.96
1.02
1.00
0.99
5.55
5.96
5.81
5.73
-0.08
-1.38
-0.24
-3.94
World
none
Sub-Saharan Africa
South Asia
South America
August 2011
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
Aug
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Aug
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
MMT
MMT
Aug
Percent
Percent
156.02
158.62
159.94
160.03
4.22
4.27
4.27
4.27
440.06
451.16
456.32
456.25
-0.08
-0.02
5.09
1.13
United States
1.26
1.46
1.07
1.07
7.94
7.54
7.91
7.97
7.13
7.55
6.00
6.04
0.04
0.58
-1.52
-20.10
Total Foreign
154.77
157.15
158.87
158.96
4.19
4.24
4.25
4.25
432.93
443.61
450.32
450.21
-0.11
-0.02
6.61
1.49
China
29.63
29.82
29.90
29.90
6.59
6.56
6.59
6.59
136.57
137.00
138.00
138.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.73
Japan
1.62
1.63
1.60
1.60
6.52
6.51
6.59
6.59
7.71
7.72
7.68
7.68
0.00
0.00
-0.04
-0.52
Korea, South
0.92
0.89
0.86
0.86
7.04
6.51
6.80
6.70
4.92
4.30
4.30
4.24
-0.06
-1.40
-0.06
-1.28
Korea, North
0.59
0.58
0.58
0.58
5.02
4.24
4.77
4.51
1.91
1.60
1.80
1.70
-0.10
-5.56
0.10
6.25
India
41.85
44.00
44.50
44.50
3.19
3.25
3.27
3.27
89.09
95.30
97.00
97.00
0.00
0.00
1.70
1.78
Bangladesh
11.60
11.80
12.00
12.00
4.01
4.18
4.13
4.13
31.00
32.90
33.00
33.00
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.30
2.80
2.10
2.80
2.80
3.64
3.36
3.64
3.64
6.80
4.70
6.80
6.80
0.00
0.00
2.10
44.68
World
none
East Asia
South Asia
Pakistan
Southeast Asia
12.10
12.38
12.15
12.15
4.73
4.75
4.84
4.83
36.37
37.06
37.60
37.30
-0.30
-0.80
0.24
0.65
Vietnam
7.42
7.55
7.44
7.44
5.39
5.47
5.47
5.47
24.99
25.80
25.43
25.43
0.00
0.00
-0.37
-1.45
Thailand
Indonesia
10.94
10.67
10.90
10.90
2.81
2.88
2.88
2.88
20.26
20.26
20.75
20.75
0.00
0.00
0.49
2.41
Burma
7.00
7.00
7.00
7.00
2.60
2.65
2.71
2.71
10.55
10.75
11.00
11.00
0.00
0.00
0.25
2.33
Philippines
4.41
4.54
4.48
4.48
3.52
3.69
3.83
3.83
9.77
10.55
10.80
10.80
0.00
0.00
0.25
2.37
Cambodia
2.68
2.78
2.78
2.78
2.84
2.97
2.97
2.97
4.78
5.20
5.20
5.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Laos
0.89
0.87
0.89
0.89
3.61
3.45
3.74
3.74
1.92
1.80
2.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.20
11.11
Malaysia
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
3.71
3.71
3.74
3.74
1.62
1.61
1.63
1.63
0.00
0.00
0.02
1.24
Brazil
2.77
2.86
2.70
2.70
4.07
4.81
4.30
4.30
7.66
9.35
7.90
7.90
0.00
0.00
-1.45
-15.51
Peru
0.41
0.39
0.34
0.34
7.40
7.27
7.10
7.10
2.09
1.96
1.67
1.67
0.00
0.00
-0.29
-14.87
Nigeria
2.10
2.15
2.17
2.17
2.06
2.07
2.07
2.07
2.60
2.67
2.70
2.70
0.00
0.00
0.03
1.12
Madagascar
1.38
1.38
1.38
1.38
3.05
3.48
3.27
3.27
2.69
3.06
2.88
2.88
0.00
0.00
-0.18
-5.94
EU-27
0.46
0.47
0.46
0.46
6.49
6.25
6.44
6.44
1.89
1.87
1.90
1.90
0.00
0.00
0.03
1.71
Italy
0.24
0.25
0.24
0.24
6.74
6.28
6.52
6.52
0.98
0.95
0.97
0.97
0.00
0.00
0.02
2.11
Spain
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
6.42
6.36
6.39
6.39
0.54
0.54
0.55
0.55
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.37
0.67
0.45
0.67
0.76
9.87
10.60
9.99
9.51
4.30
3.10
4.35
4.70
0.35
8.05
1.60
51.61
South America
Sub-Saharan Africa
Egypt
Iran
Others
0.54
0.54
0.54
0.54
4.20
4.21
4.21
4.21
1.49
1.50
1.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
11.35
11.65
12.08
12.08
2.97
3.10
3.10
3.10
21.95
23.55
24.44
24.44
0.00
0.00
0.89
3.77
August 2011
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
Aug
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Aug
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
MMT
MMT
Aug
Percent
Percent
World Total
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
442.28
452.08
455.51
451.44
-4.07
-0.89
-0.64
Total Foreign
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
343.38
351.70
359.17
359.76
0.59
0.16
8.07
2.29
Oilseed, Copra
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
5.88
5.89
5.84
5.84
0.00
0.00
-0.06
-0.95
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
12.22
12.65
13.35
13.36
0.02
0.11
0.71
5.60
205.22
211.97
218.82
217.59
2.07
2.05
1.99
1.99
424.18
433.53
436.33
432.24
-4.09
-0.94
-1.29
-0.30
35.51
37.18
35.56
35.35
2.79
2.70
2.71
2.59
98.90
100.38
96.34
91.68
-4.66
-4.84
-8.70
-8.67
169.70
174.79
183.26
182.24
1.92
1.91
1.86
1.87
325.28
333.15
339.99
340.56
0.58
0.17
7.41
2.22
50.21
51.71
54.00
53.75
2.80
2.81
2.69
2.72
140.79
145.53
145.29
145.94
0.65
0.45
0.41
0.28
Brazil
24.50
25.78
26.73
26.48
2.92
3.08
2.86
2.91
71.43
79.36
76.48
77.13
0.65
0.85
-2.24
-2.82
Argentina
20.75
20.89
21.84
21.84
2.79
2.59
2.62
2.62
57.94
54.01
57.13
57.13
0.00
0.00
3.12
5.78
Paraguay
2.82
3.03
3.22
3.22
2.61
2.83
2.42
2.42
7.35
8.57
7.78
7.78
0.00
0.00
-0.79
-9.20
-0.14
none
Major OilSeeds
United States
none
Foreign Oilseeds
South America
1.14
0.99
1.06
1.06
1.74
1.75
1.70
1.70
1.98
1.73
1.80
1.80
0.00
0.00
0.07
3.87
China
27.10
26.52
26.46
26.31
2.13
2.18
2.16
2.18
57.84
57.69
57.23
57.23
0.00
0.00
-0.46
-0.80
South Asia
37.21
38.41
40.38
40.13
1.00
1.01
1.01
1.02
37.07
38.97
40.94
40.84
-0.10
-0.24
1.87
4.80
33.06
34.36
35.85
35.60
0.96
0.99
0.98
0.98
31.62
33.90
35.05
34.95
-0.10
-0.29
1.05
3.10
3.83
3.73
4.20
4.20
1.36
1.29
1.34
1.34
5.19
4.81
5.63
5.63
0.00
0.00
0.82
16.94
-3.27
Bolivia
India
Pakistan
11.04
11.36
11.47
11.59
2.69
2.55
2.39
2.41
29.67
28.90
27.46
27.96
0.50
1.82
-0.94
France
2.25
2.21
2.26
2.28
3.30
2.96
2.67
2.96
7.43
6.54
6.01
6.75
0.74
12.31
0.21
3.18
Germany
1.50
1.51
1.46
1.46
4.26
3.84
3.32
3.11
6.36
5.80
4.85
4.55
-0.30
-6.19
-1.25
-21.59
Poland
0.83
0.86
0.81
0.81
3.05
2.62
2.74
2.49
2.52
2.24
2.21
2.01
-0.20
-9.06
-0.24
-10.52
Romania
1.26
1.45
1.41
1.46
1.48
1.61
1.54
1.50
1.87
2.34
2.16
2.19
0.03
1.16
-0.15
-6.54
Hungary
0.82
0.80
0.84
0.84
2.32
2.02
2.35
2.27
1.91
1.62
1.97
1.90
-0.07
-3.55
0.28
17.14
EU-27
0.58
0.64
0.65
0.65
3.36
3.49
3.23
3.39
1.95
2.22
2.10
2.20
0.10
4.96
-0.02
-0.81
16.43
17.84
20.72
20.27
1.28
1.18
1.29
1.29
21.06
21.05
26.71
26.16
-0.55
-2.06
5.11
24.28
Russia
6.95
7.20
9.30
9.30
1.16
1.01
1.17
1.17
8.03
7.24
10.85
10.85
0.00
0.00
3.61
49.82
Ukraine
5.83
6.43
6.90
6.45
1.59
1.54
1.65
1.69
9.28
9.92
11.40
10.90
-0.50
-4.39
0.98
9.89
Uzbekistan
1.30
1.30
1.34
1.34
1.17
1.23
1.31
1.27
1.53
1.60
1.75
1.70
-0.05
-2.86
0.10
6.25
7.83
8.05
8.67
8.67
2.05
2.03
1.93
1.93
16.04
16.33
16.72
16.72
0.00
0.00
0.39
2.38
12.17
12.55
12.97
12.89
0.89
0.92
0.92
0.92
10.86
11.53
11.91
11.81
-0.10
-0.80
0.28
2.45
2.08
2.10
2.10
2.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.06
2.19
2.21
2.21
2.17
-0.03
-1.45
-0.03
-1.45
3.57
3.57
3.66
3.59
1.33
1.33
1.34
1.35
4.75
4.76
4.92
4.84
-0.08
-1.63
0.07
1.51
1.29
1.23
1.30
1.23
1.52
1.55
1.53
1.55
1.96
1.91
1.98
1.90
-0.08
-4.04
-0.01
-0.52
Australia
1.68
2.28
2.29
2.39
1.55
1.57
1.69
1.70
2.60
3.58
3.86
4.06
0.20
5.18
0.48
13.40
Others
2.47
2.50
2.65
2.65
1.86
1.92
1.87
1.89
4.59
4.81
4.96
5.01
0.05
1.01
0.20
4.22
United Kingdom
Former Soviet Union - 12
Canada
Africa
Nigeria
Southeast Asia
Indonesia
World Total and Total Foreign: (Major Oilseeds plus copra and palm kernel)
Major Oilseeds: (soybeans, sunflowerseeds, peanuts(inshell), cottonseed and rapeseed)
August 2011
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
Aug
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Aug
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
MMT
MMT
Aug
Percent
Percent
102.15
102.82
104.57
104.09
2.55
2.57
2.50
2.47
260.84
263.95
261.45
257.47
-3.98
-1.52
-6.48
-2.45
United States
30.91
31.01
30.05
29.88
2.96
2.92
2.92
2.78
91.42
90.61
87.77
83.17
-4.60
-5.24
-7.44
-8.21
Total Foreign
71.24
71.82
74.51
74.21
2.38
2.41
2.33
2.35
169.42
173.34
173.68
174.30
0.62
0.36
0.97
0.56
Brazil
23.50
24.20
25.00
25.00
2.94
3.12
2.90
2.94
69.00
75.50
72.50
73.50
1.00
1.38
-2.00
-2.65
Argentina
18.60
18.30
19.30
19.30
2.93
2.68
2.75
2.75
54.50
49.00
53.00
53.00
0.00
0.00
4.00
8.16
Paraguay
2.68
2.84
3.00
3.00
2.69
2.92
2.50
2.50
7.20
8.30
7.50
7.50
0.00
0.00
-0.80
-9.64
Bolivia
0.90
0.85
0.90
0.90
1.85
1.86
1.76
1.76
1.67
1.58
1.58
1.58
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Uruguay
0.86
0.87
1.00
1.00
2.11
1.79
1.80
1.80
1.82
1.55
1.80
1.80
0.00
0.00
0.26
16.50
China
9.19
8.52
8.40
8.25
1.63
1.77
1.70
1.70
14.98
15.10
14.30
14.00
-0.30
-2.10
-1.10
-7.28
Korea, South
0.07
0.07
0.08
0.08
1.99
1.46
1.69
1.69
0.14
0.11
0.14
0.14
0.00
0.00
0.03
30.48
Korea, North
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.14
1.08
1.19
1.19
1.19
0.15
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Japan
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.14
1.62
1.63
1.63
1.63
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
India
9.60
9.40
9.60
9.60
1.01
1.02
1.02
1.02
9.70
9.60
9.80
9.80
0.00
0.00
0.20
2.08
Canada
1.38
1.48
1.50
1.50
2.54
2.94
2.67
2.67
3.51
4.35
4.00
4.00
0.00
0.00
-0.35
-7.94
Ukraine
0.62
1.04
1.20
1.10
1.68
1.62
1.67
1.73
1.04
1.68
2.00
1.90
-0.10
-5.00
0.22
13.10
Russia
0.79
1.04
1.20
1.20
1.19
1.18
1.25
1.25
0.94
1.22
1.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.28
22.75
Indonesia
0.53
0.47
0.54
0.47
1.32
1.38
1.35
1.38
0.70
0.65
0.72
0.64
-0.08
-11.11
-0.01
-1.54
Vietnam
0.15
0.20
0.22
0.22
1.47
1.50
1.63
1.63
0.21
0.30
0.35
0.35
0.00
0.00
0.05
17.85
Thailand
0.11
0.12
0.12
0.12
1.55
1.50
1.50
1.50
0.17
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Burma
0.16
0.17
0.17
0.17
1.20
1.21
1.21
1.21
0.19
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
EU-27
0.30
0.38
0.40
0.42
2.80
2.83
2.75
2.86
0.84
1.08
1.10
1.20
0.10
9.09
0.13
11.63
Italy
0.14
0.17
0.18
0.20
3.47
3.48
3.27
3.44
0.47
0.58
0.60
0.70
0.10
16.64
0.12
21.28
France
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.06
2.50
2.84
2.73
2.73
0.11
0.14
0.15
0.15
0.00
0.00
0.01
5.63
South Africa
0.31
0.42
0.42
0.42
1.82
1.70
1.79
1.79
0.57
0.71
0.75
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.04
5.63
Nigeria
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.44
1.02
1.02
1.02
1.02
0.45
0.45
0.45
0.45
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Uganda
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Serbia
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
2.41
2.41
2.41
2.41
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Mexico
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Iran
0.08
0.09
0.09
0.09
2.46
2.47
2.47
2.47
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Others
0.32
0.31
0.32
0.32
1.86
1.91
1.91
1.91
0.60
0.59
0.61
0.61
0.00
0.00
0.02
2.89
World
none
South America
East Asia
Southeast Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
August 2011
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
Aug
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Aug
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
MMT
MMT
Aug
Percent
Percent
29.49
32.69
34.73
34.43
1.32
1.33
1.34
1.34
39.07
43.53
46.62
46.20
-0.41
-0.89
2.67
6.14
United States
3.05
4.33
3.89
3.91
1.24
1.28
1.29
1.29
3.76
5.53
5.02
5.05
0.03
0.62
-0.48
-8.75
Total Foreign
26.44
28.36
30.85
30.52
1.34
1.34
1.35
1.35
35.30
38.00
41.60
41.15
-0.45
-1.07
3.16
8.30
5.30
5.15
5.50
5.50
2.37
2.32
2.35
2.35
12.54
11.95
12.93
12.93
0.00
0.00
0.98
8.20
10.31
11.16
12.00
12.00
0.95
0.97
0.96
0.96
9.80
10.80
11.50
11.50
0.00
0.00
0.70
6.48
3.00
2.90
3.30
3.30
1.39
1.31
1.36
1.36
4.18
3.80
4.50
4.50
0.00
0.00
0.70
18.42
Uzbekistan
1.30
1.30
1.34
1.34
1.17
1.23
1.31
1.27
1.53
1.60
1.75
1.70
-0.05
-2.86
0.10
6.25
Turkmenistan
0.55
0.64
0.65
0.65
0.89
0.98
0.96
0.96
0.49
0.63
0.63
0.63
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Tajikistan
0.17
0.17
0.20
0.20
0.88
0.94
1.00
1.00
0.15
0.16
0.20
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.05
29.03
Kazakhstan
0.12
0.13
0.15
0.15
1.25
0.85
1.03
1.03
0.15
0.11
0.16
0.16
0.00
0.00
0.05
40.91
Brazil
0.84
1.40
1.55
1.30
2.51
2.50
2.32
2.50
2.10
3.50
3.60
3.25
-0.35
-9.72
-0.25
-7.14
Argentina
0.44
0.61
0.63
0.63
0.70
0.73
0.68
0.68
0.31
0.45
0.43
0.43
0.00
0.00
-0.02
-4.49
Turkey
0.28
0.32
0.45
0.45
2.04
2.16
2.00
2.11
0.57
0.69
0.90
0.95
0.05
5.56
0.26
37.68
Syria
0.17
0.13
0.15
0.15
2.75
2.75
2.73
2.73
0.45
0.34
0.41
0.41
0.00
0.00
0.07
19.19
Iran
0.09
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.99
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.09
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Australia
0.20
0.59
0.55
0.55
2.73
2.20
2.55
2.55
0.55
1.30
1.40
1.40
0.00
0.00
0.10
7.69
EU-27
0.31
0.31
0.37
0.37
1.13
1.20
1.24
1.24
0.35
0.38
0.46
0.46
0.00
0.00
0.08
22.40
Greece
0.25
0.25
0.30
0.30
1.22
1.20
1.25
1.25
0.31
0.30
0.38
0.38
0.00
0.00
0.08
25.00
Spain
0.06
0.06
0.07
0.07
0.73
1.19
1.20
1.20
0.04
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.00
0.00
0.01
12.00
Burkina
0.42
0.40
0.45
0.40
0.46
0.45
0.55
0.48
0.19
0.18
0.25
0.19
-0.06
-22.49
0.01
7.22
Mali
0.25
0.26
0.33
0.40
0.50
0.52
0.50
0.50
0.13
0.13
0.16
0.20
0.04
21.47
0.06
47.76
Cameroon
0.15
0.14
0.18
0.18
0.75
0.98
1.00
1.00
0.11
0.14
0.18
0.18
0.00
0.00
0.04
27.74
Sudan
0.03
0.04
0.09
0.09
0.96
1.21
0.94
0.94
0.03
0.05
0.09
0.09
0.00
0.00
0.03
66.67
Zimbabwe
0.38
0.40
0.43
0.43
0.50
0.48
0.51
0.51
0.19
0.19
0.22
0.22
0.00
0.00
0.03
14.74
Nigeria
0.40
0.41
0.41
0.36
0.49
0.50
0.50
0.48
0.19
0.21
0.21
0.17
-0.03
-15.61
-0.03
-15.61
Benin
0.18
0.18
0.22
0.17
0.64
0.55
0.68
0.63
0.12
0.10
0.15
0.11
-0.04
-28.19
0.01
8.08
Uganda
0.07
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.74
1.09
1.31
1.31
0.05
0.11
0.13
0.13
0.00
0.00
0.02
20.18
Egypt
0.12
0.16
0.21
0.21
1.14
1.14
1.14
1.14
0.14
0.18
0.24
0.24
0.00
0.00
0.06
35.59
Mexico
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
1.85
1.85
1.85
1.85
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Burma
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.63
0.63
0.63
0.63
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Others
0.96
0.94
1.08
1.08
0.51
0.53
0.56
0.56
0.49
0.50
0.61
0.61
0.00
0.00
0.11
21.44
World
none
China
South Asia
India
Pakistan
Former Soviet Union - 12
South America
Middle East
Sub-Saharan Africa
August 2011
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
Aug
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Aug
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
MMT
MMT
Aug
Percent
Percent
20.40
21.35
21.25
21.25
1.64
1.68
1.64
1.66
33.36
35.81
34.96
35.27
0.31
0.89
-0.54
-1.50
United States
0.44
0.51
0.45
0.45
3.83
3.71
3.59
3.62
1.68
1.89
1.63
1.64
0.01
0.61
-0.25
-13.10
Total Foreign
19.96
20.84
20.80
20.80
1.59
1.63
1.60
1.62
31.68
33.92
33.33
33.63
0.30
0.90
-0.29
-0.86
4.38
4.53
4.50
4.50
3.36
3.45
3.38
3.44
14.71
15.64
15.20
15.50
0.30
1.97
-0.14
-0.90
India
5.30
6.00
6.00
6.00
0.92
1.00
1.00
1.00
4.90
6.00
6.00
6.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Pakistan
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.84
7.80
7.80
7.80
0.93
0.95
0.93
0.93
7.32
7.39
7.29
7.29
0.00
0.00
-0.10
-1.29
Nigeria
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.24
1.24
1.24
1.24
1.55
1.55
1.55
1.55
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Senegal
1.06
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.97
1.10
1.00
1.00
1.03
1.10
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
-0.10
-9.09
Chad
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.35
1.32
1.32
1.32
1.32
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Ghana
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.94
0.94
0.94
0.94
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Sudan
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Congo (Kinshasa)
0.48
0.48
0.48
0.48
0.78
0.78
0.78
0.78
0.37
0.37
0.37
0.37
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Burkina
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.35
1.01
1.01
1.01
1.01
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Guinea
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
1.24
1.24
1.24
1.24
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Cameroon
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.77
0.77
0.77
0.77
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Mali
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Malawi
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.22
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Cote d'Ivoire
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Uganda
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
1.12
1.12
1.12
1.12
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Benin
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.81
0.81
0.81
0.81
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Mozambique
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Niger
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.42
0.42
0.42
0.42
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
South Africa
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
2.05
2.09
2.18
2.18
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.00
0.00
0.01
4.35
Indonesia
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.75
1.67
1.67
1.67
1.67
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Burma
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
1.49
1.49
1.49
1.49
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Vietnam
0.25
0.24
0.25
0.25
2.11
1.99
2.10
2.10
0.53
0.49
0.52
0.52
0.00
0.00
0.03
5.97
Thailand
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
1.77
1.77
1.77
1.77
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Argentina
0.22
0.28
0.27
0.27
3.80
3.57
3.40
3.40
0.84
1.00
0.90
0.90
0.00
0.00
-0.10
-10.00
Brazil
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
2.47
2.50
2.60
2.60
0.24
0.25
0.26
0.26
0.00
0.00
0.01
4.00
Egypt
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
3.17
3.17
3.17
3.17
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Mexico
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
1.56
1.56
1.56
1.56
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Others
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.19
2.37
2.34
2.34
2.34
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.00
0.00
0.01
1.14
World
none
China
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Southeast Asia
South America
August 2011
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
Aug
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Aug
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
MMT
MMT
Aug
Percent
Percent
22.08
22.35
24.98
24.59
1.38
1.39
1.38
1.41
30.39
31.02
34.55
34.79
0.24
0.68
3.77
12.15
United States
0.79
0.76
0.72
0.68
1.74
1.64
1.60
1.60
1.38
1.24
1.15
1.08
-0.06
-5.57
-0.16
-12.65
Total Foreign
21.29
21.59
24.26
23.91
1.36
1.38
1.38
1.41
29.01
29.78
33.40
33.70
0.30
0.90
3.93
13.19
Russia
5.60
5.55
7.30
7.30
1.15
0.96
1.14
1.14
6.43
5.35
8.30
8.30
0.00
0.00
2.95
55.14
Ukraine
4.19
4.53
4.70
4.50
1.52
1.50
1.60
1.67
6.36
6.77
7.50
7.50
0.00
0.00
0.73
10.80
Moldova
0.23
0.25
0.25
0.25
1.25
1.51
1.60
1.60
0.28
0.38
0.40
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.02
4.44
Kazakhstan
0.72
1.10
1.20
1.20
0.51
0.41
0.42
0.42
0.37
0.45
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.05
11.11
Argentina
1.49
1.70
1.65
1.65
1.55
2.10
1.70
1.70
2.30
3.56
2.80
2.80
0.00
0.00
-0.76
-21.35
Uruguay
0.01
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.90
1.60
1.50
1.50
0.01
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.00
-0.02
-53.13
Bolivia
0.24
0.14
0.16
0.16
1.32
1.07
1.38
1.38
0.31
0.15
0.22
0.22
0.00
0.00
0.07
43.79
China
0.96
0.95
0.96
0.96
2.04
2.00
2.08
2.08
1.96
1.90
2.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.10
5.26
EU-27
3.90
3.71
3.90
4.00
1.77
1.83
1.82
1.88
6.91
6.80
7.10
7.50
0.40
5.63
0.70
10.26
France
0.73
0.70
0.70
0.73
2.34
2.33
2.37
2.48
1.70
1.63
1.66
1.80
0.14
8.43
0.17
10.43
Hungary
0.53
0.50
0.54
0.54
2.35
1.98
2.41
2.41
1.26
0.99
1.30
1.30
0.00
0.00
0.31
31.31
Spain
0.85
0.70
0.80
0.80
1.01
1.27
1.13
1.13
0.86
0.89
0.90
0.90
0.00
0.00
0.01
1.24
Italy
0.12
0.10
0.11
0.11
1.98
2.20
2.20
2.20
0.25
0.22
0.24
0.24
0.00
0.00
0.02
9.01
Slovakia
0.08
0.09
0.09
0.09
2.23
2.10
2.20
2.20
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.08
India
1.40
0.80
1.25
1.00
0.59
0.63
0.60
0.65
0.82
0.50
0.75
0.65
-0.10
-13.33
0.15
30.00
Pakistan
0.45
0.45
0.50
0.50
1.52
1.52
1.50
1.50
0.69
0.69
0.75
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.07
9.49
Turkey
0.46
0.49
0.47
0.47
1.74
2.06
1.83
1.83
0.80
1.00
0.85
0.85
0.00
0.00
-0.15
-15.00
South Africa
0.40
0.65
0.65
0.65
1.23
1.29
1.31
1.31
0.49
0.83
0.85
0.85
0.00
0.00
0.02
2.41
Burma
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.64
0.64
0.64
0.64
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Serbia
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.17
2.35
2.35
2.35
2.35
0.40
0.40
0.40
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Canada
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
1.60
1.60
1.60
1.60
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Australia
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
1.29
1.43
1.43
1.43
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Others
0.42
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.92
1.02
1.02
1.02
0.38
0.45
0.45
0.45
0.00
0.00
0.01
1.12
World
none
Former Soviet Union - 12
South America
South Asia
August 2011
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
Aug
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Aug
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
MMT
MMT
Aug
Percent
Percent
31.10
32.76
33.30
33.22
1.95
1.81
1.76
1.76
60.53
59.23
58.75
58.52
-0.24
-0.40
-0.71
-1.20
United States
0.33
0.58
0.46
0.43
2.03
1.92
1.71
1.72
0.67
1.11
0.78
0.75
-0.04
-4.49
-0.37
-33.12
Total Foreign
30.77
32.18
32.84
32.79
1.95
1.81
1.77
1.76
59.86
58.11
57.97
57.77
-0.20
-0.35
-0.34
-0.59
World
none
6.53
6.95
6.80
6.80
3.31
2.97
2.76
2.76
21.58
20.65
18.80
18.80
0.00
0.00
-1.85
-8.96
Germany
1.47
1.49
1.44
1.44
4.29
3.87
3.34
3.13
6.31
5.75
4.80
4.50
-0.30
-6.25
-1.25
-21.73
France
1.48
1.46
1.50
1.50
3.80
3.27
2.80
3.20
5.62
4.77
4.20
4.80
0.60
14.29
0.03
0.63
United Kingdom
0.58
0.64
0.65
0.65
3.36
3.49
3.23
3.39
1.95
2.22
2.10
2.20
0.10
4.96
-0.02
-0.81
Poland
0.82
0.85
0.80
0.80
3.06
2.63
2.75
2.50
2.51
2.24
2.20
2.00
-0.20
-9.09
-0.24
-10.55
Czech Republic
0.36
0.37
0.39
0.39
3.18
2.89
2.90
2.71
1.13
1.07
1.13
1.06
-0.07
-6.55
-0.01
-1.03
Denmark
0.16
0.17
0.15
0.15
3.90
3.46
3.53
3.33
0.64
0.58
0.53
0.50
-0.03
-5.66
-0.08
-13.04
Hungary
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.26
2.23
2.12
2.31
2.04
0.58
0.55
0.60
0.53
-0.07
-11.67
-0.02
-3.64
Romania
0.44
0.58
0.47
0.47
1.55
1.66
1.61
1.45
0.68
0.96
0.75
0.68
-0.08
-10.00
-0.29
-29.69
Slovakia
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.17
2.32
2.04
2.20
1.99
0.39
0.34
0.37
0.34
-0.04
-9.43
-0.01
-1.75
Sweden
0.10
0.11
0.12
0.12
2.99
2.56
2.61
2.61
0.30
0.28
0.30
0.30
0.00
0.00
0.02
7.53
Lithuania
0.19
0.20
0.20
0.20
2.17
2.10
2.10
2.10
0.42
0.42
0.42
0.42
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Latvia
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.09
2.20
2.31
2.28
2.28
0.21
0.22
0.21
0.21
0.00
0.00
-0.01
-4.65
Austria
0.06
0.05
0.06
0.06
3.00
3.15
3.15
3.15
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.76
Finland
0.08
0.16
0.16
0.16
1.57
1.30
1.38
1.38
0.13
0.21
0.22
0.22
0.00
0.00
0.02
7.32
Estonia
0.08
0.10
0.10
0.10
1.66
1.33
1.33
1.33
0.14
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.28
7.37
7.10
7.10
1.88
1.78
1.80
1.80
13.66
13.10
12.80
12.80
0.00
0.00
-0.30
-2.29
India
6.45
7.00
7.00
7.00
0.99
1.00
1.00
1.00
6.40
7.00
7.00
7.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Pakistan
0.27
0.27
0.29
0.29
0.85
0.85
0.97
0.97
0.23
0.23
0.28
0.28
0.00
0.00
0.05
21.74
Bangladesh
2.22
EU-27
China
South Asia
0.30
0.30
0.31
0.31
0.75
0.75
0.74
0.74
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.00
0.00
0.01
Canada
6.38
6.50
7.10
7.10
1.95
1.83
1.77
1.77
12.42
11.87
12.60
12.60
0.00
0.00
0.73
6.19
Australia
1.39
1.61
1.65
1.75
1.37
1.34
1.39
1.43
1.91
2.15
2.30
2.50
0.20
8.70
0.35
16.28
Ukraine
1.01
0.86
1.00
0.85
1.85
1.70
1.90
1.76
1.87
1.47
1.90
1.50
-0.40
-21.05
0.03
2.04
Russia
0.56
0.61
0.80
0.80
1.20
1.09
1.31
1.31
0.67
0.67
1.05
1.05
0.00
0.00
0.38
56.72
37.50
Belarus
0.34
0.27
0.35
0.35
1.80
1.48
1.86
1.57
0.61
0.40
0.65
0.55
-0.10
-15.38
0.15
Paraguay
0.04
0.06
0.07
0.07
1.11
1.59
1.43
1.43
0.04
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
-1.96
Others
0.24
0.37
0.37
0.37
1.06
0.68
0.70
0.97
0.25
0.25
0.26
0.36
0.10
38.46
0.11
44.58
August 2011
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
Aug
MMT
Percent
MMT
Percent
Oilseed, Copra
Philippines
2.52
2.60
2.60
2.60
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Indonesia
1.60
1.54
1.48
1.48
0.00
0.00
-0.06
-3.90
India
0.74
0.74
0.74
0.74
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Vietnam
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Mexico
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Thailand
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Sri Lanka
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Mozambique
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Cote d'Ivoire
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.88
5.89
5.84
5.84
0.00
0.00
-0.05
-0.85
World
Oilseed, Palm Kernel
Indonesia
5.88
6.30
6.80
6.80
0.00
0.00
0.50
7.94
Malaysia
4.52
4.53
4.68
4.68
0.00
0.00
0.15
3.31
Nigeria
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Thailand
0.27
0.26
0.29
0.29
0.00
0.00
0.02
7.69
0.13
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Colombia
0.10
0.09
0.10
0.12
0.02
20.00
0.03
33.33
Cote d'Ivoire
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Brazil
0.06
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Cameroon
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Congo (Kinshasa)
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
12.22
12.65
13.35
13.36
0.01
0.07
0.71
5.61
7.63
World
Oil, Palm
Indonesia
22.00
23.60
25.40
25.40
0.00
0.00
1.80
Malaysia
17.76
18.00
18.40
18.40
0.00
0.00
0.40
2.22
Thailand
1.35
1.29
1.45
1.45
0.00
0.00
0.16
12.40
Nigeria
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Colombia
0.77
0.73
0.88
0.90
0.02
2.27
0.18
25.00
0.49
0.50
0.53
0.53
0.00
0.00
0.03
6.00
Ecuador
0.43
0.46
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.04
8.70
Cote d'Ivoire
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Brazil
0.24
0.27
0.28
0.28
0.00
0.00
0.02
7.69
Honduras
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
45.86
47.67
50.26
50.28
0.02
0.04
2.62
5.50
World
August 2011
Area
(Million 1000 HA)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Kilograms per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
Aug
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
Change in Production
Production
(Million 480 lb. bales)
Aug
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Jul
Aug
MBales
Percent
Percent
30.11
33.52
35.56
35.40
733
744
754
755
101.38
114.59
123.16
122.71
-0.45
-0.36
8.12
7.09
United States
3.05
4.33
3.89
3.91
871
910
897
921
12.19
18.10
16.00
16.55
0.55
3.46
-1.55
-8.56
Total Foreign
27.07
29.19
31.67
31.49
717
720
737
734
89.20
96.49
107.16
106.16
-1.00
-0.93
9.67
10.02
5.30
5.15
5.50
5.50
1,315
1,289
1,306
1,306
32.00
30.50
33.00
33.00
0.00
0.00
2.50
8.20
10.31
11.16
12.00
12.00
486
496
490
490
23.00
25.40
27.00
27.00
0.00
0.00
1.60
6.30
3.00
2.90
3.30
3.30
697
661
680
680
9.60
8.80
10.30
10.30
0.00
0.00
1.50
17.05
Uzbekistan
1.30
1.30
1.34
1.34
653
687
731
699
3.90
4.10
4.50
4.30
-0.20
-4.44
0.20
4.88
Turkmenistan
0.55
0.64
0.65
0.65
495
544
536
536
1.25
1.60
1.60
1.60
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Tajikistan
0.17
0.17
0.20
0.20
480
528
544
544
0.38
0.40
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.10
25.00
Kazakhstan
0.12
0.13
0.14
0.14
635
461
583
583
0.35
0.28
0.38
0.38
0.00
0.00
0.10
36.36
Burkina
0.42
0.40
0.50
0.40
363
354
392
381
0.70
0.65
0.90
0.70
-0.20
-22.22
0.05
7.69
Mali
0.25
0.26
0.33
0.40
383
398
385
381
0.44
0.48
0.58
0.70
0.13
21.74
0.23
47.37
Zimbabwe
0.38
0.40
0.43
0.43
286
272
295
295
0.50
0.50
0.58
0.58
0.00
0.00
0.08
15.00
Benin
0.18
0.18
0.22
0.17
423
363
445
416
0.35
0.30
0.45
0.33
-0.13
-27.78
0.03
8.33
Cote d'Ivoire
0.20
0.21
0.23
0.23
354
363
379
379
0.33
0.35
0.40
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.05
14.29
Cameroon
0.15
0.14
0.18
0.18
327
428
435
435
0.23
0.28
0.35
0.35
0.00
0.00
0.08
27.27
Nigeria
0.40
0.41
0.36
0.36
248
252
242
242
0.45
0.48
0.40
0.40
0.00
0.00
-0.08
-15.79
Sudan
0.03
0.04
0.09
0.09
403
518
399
399
0.05
0.10
0.17
0.17
0.00
0.00
0.07
65.00
Brazil
0.84
1.40
1.40
1.30
1,419
1,322
1,446
1,457
5.45
8.50
9.30
8.70
-0.60
-6.45
0.20
2.35
Argentina
0.44
0.61
0.63
0.63
495
455
470
470
1.00
1.28
1.35
1.35
0.00
0.00
0.08
5.88
Paraguay
0.02
0.03
0.05
0.05
302
399
327
327
0.03
0.06
0.08
0.08
0.00
0.00
0.02
36.36
Turkey
0.28
0.32
0.45
0.45
1,361
1,429
1,403
1,403
1.75
2.10
2.90
2.90
0.00
0.00
0.80
38.10
Syria
0.17
0.13
0.15
0.15
1,359
1,280
1,306
1,306
1.03
0.74
0.90
0.90
0.00
0.00
0.17
22.45
Iran
0.11
0.12
0.14
0.14
605
635
645
645
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.05
14.29
Australia
0.20
0.59
0.55
0.55
1,932
1,550
1,781
1,781
1.78
4.20
4.50
4.50
0.00
0.00
0.30
7.14
EU-27
0.26
0.31
0.37
0.37
888
762
972
972
1.07
1.07
1.66
1.66
0.00
0.00
0.59
55.58
Greece
0.20
0.24
0.30
0.30
1,023
771
1,016
1,016
0.94
0.85
1.40
1.40
0.00
0.00
0.55
64.71
Spain
0.06
0.06
0.07
0.07
424
715
778
778
0.12
0.21
0.25
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.04
20.77
Egypt
0.12
0.16
0.21
0.21
790
843
804
804
0.43
0.60
0.78
0.78
0.00
0.00
0.18
29.17
Mexico
0.07
0.12
0.19
0.18
1,313
1,338
1,295
1,331
0.42
0.71
1.10
1.10
0.00
0.00
0.39
54.28
Others
1.82
1.93
2.09
2.09
291
303
324
324
2.43
2.69
3.11
3.11
0.00
0.00
0.42
15.46
World
none
China
South Asia
India
Pakistan
Former Soviet Union - 12
Sub-Saharan Africa
South America
Middle East
August 2011
TABLE 18
The table below presents a record of the differences between the August projection and the final Estimate.
Using world wheat production as an example, the "root mean square error means that chances are 2 out of 3
that the current forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.4 percent. Chances are
9 out of 10 (90% confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 4.1 percent. The average difference
between the August projection and the final estimate is 10.9 million tons, ranging from 0.2 million to 32.1
million tons. The August projection has been below the estimate 19 times and above 11 times.
RELIABILITY OF PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS 1/
COMMODITY AND
REGION
Root mean
square error
90 percent
confidence
interval
Average
Percent
Smallest
Largest
Years
Below
Above
final
final
WHEAT
World
2.4
4.1
10.9
0.2
32.1
19
11
U.S.
2.4
4.1
1.2
0.0
4.2
12
18
Foreign
2.7
4.6
10.5
0.6
31.1
19
11
World
2.5
4.2
17.3
0.4
51.0
22
U.S.
6.8
11.6
10.7
0.2
31.4
20
10
Foreign
2.4
4.0
12.2
0.7
28.9
20
10
World
2.5
4.3
6.9
0.0
24.4
20
10
U.S.
5.3
9.0
0.2
0.0
0.6
17
13
Foreign
2.6
4.4
6.8
0.4
24.7
21
World
4.8
8.1
6.3
0.3
26.7
18
12
U.S.
6.4
11.0
3.5
0.4
11.1
15
15
Foreign
8.0
13.5
6.3
1.0
26.4
16
14
COARSE GRAINS 2/
RICE (Milled)
SOYBEANS
COTTON
World
5.0
8.5
3.3
0.2
13.2
16
14
U.S.
8.1
13.8
1.1
0.1
3.9
17
12
Foreign
5.3
9.1
2.8
0.0
10.7
15
14
-------Million bushels-------
UNITED STATES
CORN
7.3
12.5
400
12
1079
19
11
SORGHUM
8.5
14.5
38
108
16
14
BARLEY
6.5
11.0
17
67
11
19
OATS
9.3
15.8
15
57
24
1/ Marketing years 1981/82 through 2009/10. Final is defined as the first November estimate following the
marketing year, and for 2010/11 last month's estimate.
2/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain
August 2011
August 2011