COVID-19 Infection Survey

Characteristics related to having an Omicron

compatible result in those who test positive for COVID-
19

Table contact details: Esther Sutherland

Office for National Statistics
infection.survey.analysis@ons.gov.uk
Telephone: +44 (0)1329 44 7683

Date of publication: Tuesday, December 21, 2021

For more information about the COVID-19 Infection Survey see our bulletin
Weekly bulletin
Contents

Table 1a - Most recent fortnight: core demographic characteristics

Table 1b - Most recent fortnight: Screened characteristics
Table 1c - Most recent fortnight: single year of age
Results
Modelled likelihood of testing positive for COVID-19 with an Omicron probable result, by core demographic characteristic,
Modelled likelihood of testing positive for COVID-19 with an Omicron probable result, by screened characteristic, UK
Conditional likelihood of testing positive for COVID-19 with an Omicron probable result, by single year of age, UK
 emographic characteristic, UK
ned characteristic, UK
gle year of age, UK
Contents
Table 1a
Modelled likelihood of testing positive with an Omicron probable result in people who test positive for COVID-19, by core
29 November 2021 to 12 December 2021

Core characteristic Category

Sex Male (Reference)
Sex Female
Household size 1 (Reference)
Household size 2
Household size 3
Household size 4
Household size 5+
Region London (Reference)
Region North East/North West/Yorkshire
Region East Midlands
Region West Midlands
Region East of England
Region South East
Region South West
Region Northern Ireland
Region Scotland
Region Wales
Multigenerational household No (Reference)
Multigenerational household Yes
Ethnicity White (Reference)
Ethnicity Ethnic minorities
Deprivation 10 unit increase in deprivation score
Deprivation score 10
Deprivation score 20
Deprivation score 30
Deprivation score 40
Deprivation score 50
Deprivation score 60
Deprivation score 70
Deprivation score 80
Deprivation score 90
Deprivation score 100
Urban or rural Major urban (Reference)
Urban or rural Urban city town
Urban or rural Rural
Source: Office for National Statistics - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey

Notes:
1. All results are provisional and subject to revision.
2. Only individuals who test as a strong positive (Ct<30) are included, since weaker positive results of the Delta variant could be identifi
3. Positive test results with gene pattern OR + N are defined as being probable Omicron, it is possible that some OR + N cases may not
cases with a high viral load should minimise this.

4. These statistics refer to infections occurring in private households. These figures exclude infections reported in hospitals, care home
5. Deprivation is based on the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) score or equivalent scoring method for the devolved administration
least deprived. The odds ratio shows how a 10 unit increase in deprivation score is associated with the likelihood of testing positive for

6. The odds ratios in this table indicate the likelihood of an individual testing positive for COVID-19 with an Omicron probable result gi
one, this means there is neither an increase nor a decrease in the likelihood of testing positive for COVID-19 with an Omicron probable
increased likelihood of testing positive for COVID-19 with an Omicron probable result compared with the reference category. An odds
Omicron probable result compared with the reference category.

7. More detailed information about the methods used can be found in our technical article: analysis of populations in the UK by risk of

8. P-values can be used to establish the certainty of a difference between two categories. The smaller the p-value, the stronger the sta
of more than 0.05 have no statistical evidence of a difference.

9. Some figures have been suppressed (*) due to low sample counts and secondary suppression has been applied where appropriate.
people who test positive for COVID-19, by core demographic characteristic, UK

Estimated likelihood of
testing positive for COVID-19
with an Omicron probable Lower 95% Upper 95%
result (odds ratio) confidence interval confidence interval p-value
1 - - -
0.72 0.47 1.08 0.111
1 - - -
0.71 0.37 1.40 0.309
0.51 0.24 1.08 0.074
0.63 0.31 1.30 0.203
0.41 0.17 0.98 0.047
1 - - -
0.16 0.06 0.37 0.000
0.56 0.12 2.00 0.409
0.36 0.10 0.96 0.066
1.41 0.59 3.22 0.431
0.65 0.25 1.56 0.343
0.34 0.07 1.19 0.123
0.50 0.07 1.97 0.382
3.34 1.60 6.78 0.001
0.29 0.04 1.20 0.131
1 - - -
1.16 0.52 2.35 0.702
1 - - -
1.75 0.98 3.04 0.051
0.90 0.84 0.98 0.011
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
1 - - -
 0.57 0.28 1.13 0.105
0.18 0.06 0.47 0.001

er positive results of the Delta variant could be identified as probable Omicron. The model identifies the probability of these individuals having prob
micron, it is possible that some OR + N cases may not be Omicron as some genes may not be detected (for example, weaker Delta infections), howe

es exclude infections reported in hospitals, care homes and/or other communal establishments.
alent scoring method for the devolved administrations. The score ranges from 1, which represents most deprived, up to 100, which represents
is associated with the likelihood of testing positive for COVID-19.

tive for COVID-19 with an Omicron probable result given a particular characteristic/variable. When a characteristic/variable has an odds ratio of
sting positive for COVID-19 with an Omicron probable result compared with the reference category. An odds ratio greater than one indicates an
esult compared with the reference category. An odds ratio less than one indicates a decreased likelihood of testing positive for COVID-19 with an

ical article: analysis of populations in the UK by risk of testing positive for COVID-19, September 2021. Please note that since the technical article we

tegories. The smaller the p-value, the stronger the statistical evidence of a difference in the likelihood of testing positive. Variables with a p-value

ry suppression has been applied where appropriate.

Number of
Omicron
probable Total
positives sample
60 889
55 927
18 133
34 421
19 342
32 583
12 337
53 372
6 342
3 86
4 115
13 163
11 300
3 159
* 73
18 97
* 109
105 1,592
10 224
92 1,658
23 158
- -
3 61
18 117
11 140
22 191
8 182
10 200
10 220
12 208
12 243
9 254
76 667
 34 809
5 340

e probability of these individuals having probable Omicron.

(for example, weaker Delta infections), however, limiting the analysis to

st deprived, up to 100, which represents

haracteristic/variable has an odds ratio of

n odds ratio greater than one indicates an
od of testing positive for COVID-19 with an

Please note that since the technical article we have changed our approach to modelling the use of Lateral Flow Device (LFD) tests. Details can be fo

of testing positive. Variables with a p-value

Contents
Table 1b
Modelled likelihood of testing positive with an Omicron probable result in people who test positive for COVID-19, by scree
29 November 2021 to 12 December 2021

Screening characteristic
Vaccination status
Vaccination status
Vaccination status
Vaccination status
Previous COVID-19 infection
Previous COVID-19 infection
Work Status
Work Status
Work Status
Work Status
Work Status
Travel abroad status (In the last 28 days)
Travel abroad status (In the last 28 days)
Source: Office for National Statistics - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey

Notes:
1. All results are provisional and subject to revision.
2. Only individuals who test as a strong positive (Ct<30) are included, since weaker positive results of the Delta variant could be identifi
3. These statistics refer to infections occurring in private households. These figures exclude infections reported in hospitals, care home
4. Positive test results with gene pattern OR + N are defined as being probable Omicron, it is possible that some OR + N cases may not
high viral load should minimise this.
5. The odds ratios in this table indicate the likelihood of an individual testing positive for COVID-19 with an Omicron probable result gi
nor a decrease in the likelihood of testing positive for COVID-19 with an Omicron probable result compared with the reference catego
compared with the reference category. An odds ratio less than one indicates a decreased likelihood of testing positive for COVID-19 w

6. More detailed information about the methods used can be found in our technical article: analysis of populations in the UK by risk of

7. P-values can be used to establish the certainty of a difference between two categories. The smaller the p-value, the stronger the sta
evidence of a difference.
8. Some figures have been suppressed (*) due to low sample counts and secondary suppression has been applied where appropriate.
9. Screening characteristics are included in the model only if characteristics/variables are significant (p<=0.05).
10. In addition to the variables in the table above, this model controls for age, region, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, household size, multi
    
   
ve with an Omicron probable result in people who test positive for COVID-19, by screened demographic characteristic, UK
   

Estimated likelihood of
testing positive for COVID-19
with an Omicron probable
Category result (odds ratio)
Not vaccinated (Reference) 1
1 dose 1.57
2 doses, more than 14 days ago 2.26
3 doses, more than 14 days ago 4.45
No (Reference) 1
Yes 3.22
Employed, working (Reference) 1
Employed, not working 0.67
Not working 0.70
Retired 0.94
Child/student 1.62
No (Reference) 1
Yes 4.60
- Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey

   

positive (Ct<30) are included, since weaker positive results of the Delta variant could be identified as probable Omicron. The model identifies the pr
curring in private households. These figures exclude infections reported in hospitals, care homes and/or other communal establishments.
n OR + N are defined as being probable Omicron, it is possible that some OR + N cases may not be Omicron as some genes may not be detected (for

he likelihood of an individual testing positive for COVID-19 with an Omicron probable result given a particular characteristic/variable. When a chara
ng positive for COVID-19 with an Omicron probable result compared with the reference category. An odds ratio greater than one indicates an increa
An odds ratio less than one indicates a decreased likelihood of testing positive for COVID-19 with an Omicron probable result compared with the re

methods used can be found in our technical article: analysis of populations in the UK by risk of testing positive for COVID-19, September 2021. Plea

certainty of a difference between two categories. The smaller the p-value, the stronger the statistical evidence of a difference in the likelihood of te

*) due to low sample counts and secondary suppression has been applied where appropriate.
d in the model only if characteristics/variables are significant (p<=0.05).
ble above, this model controls for age, region, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, household size, multi-generational household, and urban/rural classificati
          
         
cteristic, UK      
       

Number of
Omicron
Lower 95% Upper 95% confidence probable
confidence interval interval p-value positives Total sample
- - - 14 536
0.52 4.54 0.413 8 144
0.78 7.45 0.157 72 944
1.29 17.03 0.023 21 185
- - - 105 1,760
1.31 7.29 0.007 10 56
- - - 79 926
0.03 4.20 0.725 * 19
0.19 1.97 0.537 4 65
0.28 3.02 0.919 11 190
0.41 6.39 0.486 20 616
- - - 92 1,735
2.41 8.62 0.000 23 81

         

The model identifies the probability of these individuals having probable Omicron.
establishments.
s may not be detected (for example, weaker Delta infections), however, limiting the analysis to cases with a

stic/variable. When a characteristic/variable has an odds ratio of one, this means there is neither an increase
han one indicates an increased likelihood of testing positive for COVID-19 with an Omicron probable result
esult compared with the reference category.

-19, September 2021. Please note that since the technical article we have changed our approach to modelling the use of Lateral Flow Device (LFD) t

ence in the likelihood of testing positive. Variables with a p-value of more than 0.05 have no statistical

and urban/rural classification.

Contents
Table 1c
Predicted probability of testing positive for COVID-19 with an Omicron probable result, by single year of age, UK
29 November 2021 to 12 December 2021

Predicted
Omicron Lower 95% Upper 95%
probable confidence confidence
Age positivity interval interval
2 0.03 0.01 0.09
3 0.03 0.01 0.10
4 0.04 0.01 0.11
5 0.04 0.01 0.12
6 0.05 0.02 0.13
7 0.06 0.02 0.15
8 0.07 0.03 0.16
9 0.08 0.03 0.18
10 0.09 0.04 0.20
11 0.10 0.05 0.22
12 0.12 0.05 0.25
13 0.14 0.06 0.28
14 0.16 0.08 0.31
15 0.18 0.09 0.34
16 0.21 0.10 0.37
17 0.23 0.12 0.41
18 0.26 0.13 0.44
19 0.28 0.15 0.47
20 0.31 0.17 0.50
21 0.33 0.18 0.53
22 0.35 0.19 0.55
23 0.37 0.20 0.57
24 0.38 0.21 0.58
25 0.38 0.22 0.59
26 0.39 0.22 0.59
27 0.39 0.22 0.59
28 0.39 0.22 0.58
29 0.38 0.22 0.57
30 0.37 0.21 0.56
31 0.36 0.21 0.55
32 0.35 0.20 0.53
33 0.34 0.20 0.51
34 0.32 0.19 0.49
35 0.31 0.18 0.47
36 0.29 0.17 0.45
37 0.28 0.16 0.44
38 0.26 0.15 0.42
39 0.25 0.14 0.40
40 0.23 0.13 0.38
41 0.22 0.12 0.36
42 0.21 0.12 0.35
43 0.20 0.11 0.34
44 0.19 0.11 0.33
45 0.19 0.10 0.32
46 0.18 0.10 0.31
47 0.17 0.09 0.30
48 0.17 0.09 0.29
49 0.17 0.09 0.29
50 0.16 0.09 0.28
51 0.16 0.09 0.28
52 0.16 0.09 0.28
53 0.16 0.09 0.28
54 0.16 0.09 0.27
55 0.16 0.09 0.27
56 0.16 0.09 0.27
57 0.16 0.09 0.28
58 0.16 0.09 0.28
59 0.17 0.09 0.28
60 0.17 0.09 0.28
61 0.17 0.09 0.29
62 0.17 0.09 0.29
63 0.17 0.10 0.29
64 0.18 0.10 0.30
65 0.18 0.10 0.31
66 0.18 0.10 0.31
67 0.18 0.10 0.32
68 0.19 0.10 0.32
69 0.19 0.10 0.33
70 0.19 0.10 0.34
71 0.19 0.10 0.35
72 0.19 0.10 0.35
73 0.20 0.10 0.36
74 0.20 0.10 0.37
75 0.20 0.10 0.38
76 0.20 0.09 0.39
77 0.21 0.09 0.40
78 0.21 0.09 0.41
79 0.21 0.09 0.42
80 0.22 0.09 0.43
81 0.22 0.09 0.44
82 0.22 0.09 0.45
84 0.23 0.09 0.47
85+ 0.23 0.09 0.48
Source: Office for National Statistics - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey

Notes:
1. All results are provisional and subject to revision.
2. These statistics refer to infections occurring in private households. These figures exclude infections reported in hospitals, care home
3. Only individuals who test as a strong positive (Ct<30) are included, since weaker positive results of the Delta variant could be identifi
identifies the probability of these individuals having probable Omicron.
4. Positive test results with gene pattern OR + N are defined as being probable Omicron, it is possible that some OR + N cases may not
detected (for example, weaker Delta infections), however, limiting the analysis to cases with a high viral load should minimise this.

5. Probabilities are subject to uncertainty, given that a sample is only part of the wider population. The model provides 95% confidenc
6. More detailed information about the methods used can be found in our technical article: analysis of populations in the UK by risk of
7. These are predicted probabilities that give the trend across years of age calculated at a reference value for other factors (male, Lond
multigenerational household, living in a major urban area, 50th deprivation percentile) and should not be used as population positivity
different because of other factors not included.
gle year of age, UK
eported in hospitals, care homes and/or other communal establishments.
he Delta variant could be identified as probable Omicron. The model

hat some OR + N cases may not be Omicron as some genes may not be
al load should minimise this.

model provides 95% confidence intervals around the probabilities.

populations in the UK by risk of testing positive for COVID-19, September 2021.
ue for other factors (male, London, White ethnicity, household size of one, non-
be used as population positivity rates. Levels of positivity in the population may be
Contents
Today we have published some early results from the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey showing the charac
Omicron variant compared with the Delta variant. These early results are based only on the first fortnight’s data that
so caution is advised. Fuller analysis based on more data from our survey will be published when available.

Cases compatible with the Omicron variant are characterised by the absence of the ‘S’ gene on a positive test, one
OR and N, and a high viral load. Cases with a high viral load and an absent ‘S’ gene are characterised in this analys
to be cases of the Delta variant or its genetic descendants.

This analysis evaluates, for those who tested as a strong positive (cycle Threshold (Ct) value <30) between 29
characteristics which were associated with individuals who had results compatible with the Omicron variant. Results
These effects show the relative likelihood of having a result compatible with Omicron compared to the reference gro

There are 1,816 positive individuals included in the analysis, of which 115 tested positive compatible with Omicron. S
‘compatible with Omicron’ and ‘compatible with Delta’.

The model uses a similar process to our usual predictors of positivity analysis, published regularly in our Characteris

Main points:
·       Age: Compared to other ages, young children testing positive for COVID-19 are less likely to have infections c
30s with COVID-19, however, are more likely to have infections compatible with the Omicron variant.

·       Deprivation: Those infected with COVID-19 who live in more deprived areas are more likely to test positive wi

·       Urban: Those infected with COVID-19 and living in major urban areas and urban cities/towns are more like to t
variant compared to those living in rural areas.

·       Ethnicity: There is some evidence to suggest that people who test positive, for COVID-19 who report being fro
infections compatible with the Omicron variant compared to those who identify themselves as White.

·       Traveling abroad: Those who travelled abroad in the last 28 days and test positive for COVID-19 are more lik
Omicron variant compared to those who did not travel.

·       Reinfection: Those who have previously been infected with COVID-19 and become reinfected are more likely
Omicron variant, compared with those who test positive with their first infections.

·       Vaccination status: Those who have received three doses of a vaccine and test positive for COVID-19 are mo
Omicron variant compared with those who are unvaccinated, though individuals who had received at least one d
to test positive for COVID-19, regardless of variant. It is too early to draw conclusions from our data on the effec