Dec-zoa-z

Paper / Subject Code: 31925 / Department Leval Optional Course l- Probabilistic Graphical Models

T,E^ CcnrnpsJ CsertY)-It ) C cfd C+SJ

Duration: 3hrs
fr-r:i*"
[]'Iax ],Iarks:801

N.B. : (l) Question No I is Cornpulsorl'.

(2) Atternpt an1,' three questions out of the remaining five.
(3) All questions carr)' equal rrrarks.
(4) Assume suitable data, if required anql siate it clearly.

Attempt any F0UR (5 marks) [201

a Explain Causal and Eviclerrtial Reasoning pattems with e:;,ample.

b Explain Markov Moclels. Justify the role of Factor Table in representation of
infonnation in Markov Mocle l.
c Explain any one application oi Bayesian Nefwork in dstail with respect to PGld.
Ci Given the foilor.r,ing factor tab!e betwcen variables A, B arrd C.
Find the joint distribution functior,.

E C !3tr I
r) L] .*i.l
t.1 I -l {r
'[ r:l 13
1 1 5CI

e Differentiate betw..,, *o,ginal antl joint distributions with an example.

2 a Differentiate betweeu conditional dependence and conditional independence. [ 10]

List cut 5 independencies in the graph given below:

13589 Page 1 of 3

F ] O I C 282C5 B E92 8 B FEF5 A43EA 75 3 B5FB

Paper / subject code: 31925 / Department
Levar optionar Course I- probabiristic
Graphicar Models

b A patient goes to the doctor for a medicai

condition, the docror suspects rhree [r0,]
diseases as the cause of trre condition. The three diseases
are Dl. D2, D3. whicir
are nra-igina,f independenr from
each other. There are fbur symptonN
s r, s2, s3,
54 which the doctor \''/ants to check
for presence to find the most probabre cause
ofthe ccncition The symptoms are conditiona,y dependent
to the three diseases
as follows:
Sl depends oniy on Dl. 52 depends on
DI and D2. 53 is depends on Dl and
D3,
whereas 54 depentls only on D3.
Assume all randrom variables are
Boorean, they
are either .true, or .farse,.
a. Draw the payesian lletwork for
this problem.
h. W,ite dllwn the expression for the joint
probability distribution as
a
prcduct of ccnditional probabilities.
c. What is the number of injependeitt
parameters that ls require,J
to descnbe
this joint distribution?
3 a Assnme thal a rna,'s profession
can be crassified as pr ofessionar,
skired labourer, 10]
or unskilled labourer. Assume that, [
ofthe sons ofprofessional men, g0 percenL
are
. professional, l0
percenr are skillcd labourers,
and l0 percent
labourers' rn the case ofsons
ofskilred lab.urers, 60 percent "- ";;;;;;
are ski,ed rabourerc,
20 percent are professional, and
20 percent are unskilled. Finally,
in the case of
unskilred rabourers, 50 percent ofthe
sons are unskilred labourers,
and 25 percent
each are in the other two categories.
Assume that every rnan has at
reast one son
and form a l4arkov chain by following
the profession ofa rauclomly chosen son
ofa given farnill, through several generations.
Set up the mahix ofrransition probabilities.

Find the probability that a ranclomly

chosen grandson of an unskilled
labourer is a
professionai rnan.
b what is a maxirnal clique? How can
we represent pararnete rizationusi,g
criques. tr 0]
4 a From the HMM given below' find
the likerihood of the sequencre
GrumpyI {Happy, ti,l

13589
page 2 of 3

F7OI C 2E2C5 B E92 8 B FEF5A43EA 75 3 B5FB

Paper I Subject Code: 3I925 ,/Department Leval Optional Course 1- Probabilistic Graphical t,Iodels

Start

b Explain the role cf the Viterbi algorithnr in I'lidderr Markov Moclel decoding. il01
5a Write Short notes on: il01
1. Utility Curve
2. Decision Trees
Expiairr Decision Netu,urks with all assoe iated ts-rmrrrologies? il01
Anisha wants l.o go ctri. but based upou rainl, or sullny conditions she wiil decide
whetirer to take an unibrella with her or leave at hcme. The various probabilities
are girlen in the graph belor.v. Calculate Maxintum Expectecl Utility using
Baycsian Network and draw the Decision Tree for follorving details:

6 a Discrrss concept oiLog Linear Parameterization with the help of an example. tl0l
b Write a short note on application of Hidden Markov Modelling in POS Tagging. il0l

,.{.***:::*****,

13589 Page 3 of 3

F7O ICZE2CsBE92 8B FE F5 A4 ] E A 75 3 B5FB