THE LENGTH OF THE SOTHIC CYCLE

By M. F. INGHAM

IN 1966, as a result of a correspondence between Professor O. R. Gurney, Mr. H. S.

Smith, and Colonel P. B. S. Andrews, the present writer was asked to check the state-
ments that had been made by astronomers and others during the last fifty years about
the true length of the so-called Sothic cycle, which is of such cardinal importance for
Egyptian chronology. Accordingly we have attempted to calculate the exact length of
the interval between successive heliacal risings of Sirius, the Sothic year, as observed
at Memphis from the year - 4000 to the present day, and to derive new values for the
lengths of the first four Sothic cycles.
It can be seen intuitively that, chiefly as a result of the precession of the equinoxes,
the length of the Sothic year is not fixed, but changes slowly with time. For when the
southerly declination of Sirius is decreasing, as it was until + 970, the points on the
horizon at which the star rises and sets move steadily northwards and the period of
invisibility, i.e. the interval between heliacal setting and heliacal rising, will gradually
decrease. The time of heliacal rising will likewise change and with it the length of the
Sothic year and hence also of the Sothic cycle.
The astronomical calculations are straightforward and are illustrated by the two
diagrams. Fig. 1 shows the celestial sphere with the Earth at its centre. K and K' are
the north and south ecliptic poles respectively and P is the north celestial pole moving
round K, as the result of precession, on a small circle of radius E (the obliquity of the
ecliptic) in the direction shown. S is Sirius, whose equatorial co-ordinates are a, 8,
and ecliptic co-ordinates A, f3, The dashed portions of great circles are the eastern
(rising) and western (setting) horizons which intersect the ecliptic in Hand H'. A and
A' represent the positions of the Sun at heliacal rising and setting assuming that the
star is visible on the horizon. This assumption is not necessarily true, even in a clear
atmosphere, but we make it because the horizon is a great circle which any other almu-
cantar is not. Moreover, we are interested in differences between the times of succes-
sive heliacal risings, not in the exact times themselves, and so the assumption does not
introduce an appreciable error. AL is thus the arcus visionis (1'), or smallest solar de-
pression at which the star can be seen, for rising and A'L' (1") is that for setting.
According to Schoch I, these are different because it is more difficult to spot the star
for the first time at rising than for the last time at setting, since at setting one knows
where it was the evening before. We have adopted his values, more or less, and have
put I' = 9° and 1" = 7'5°. During the year the Sun moves from A' through T (the
point of conjunction) to A and the period of invisibility is thus represented by A'A.
1 K. Schoch, Die Lange der Sothisperiode betrdgt I4S6 Jahre. Berlin-Steglitz (by the author), 1928.
 THE LENGTH OF THE SOTHIC CYCLE 37
Fig. 2 shows how the horizon, equator, zenith, and pole are situated. N is the north
point on the horizon and PN is the observer's latitude (29'9° N. atMemphis).
The steps in the calculation are as follows.

K'
FIG. I.

I. Obtain a, 8 for Sirius from -4000 to +2000 from the tables of Neugebauer,"
These figures include both precession and proper motion.
2. Calculate A, f3 remembering that E varies with time owing to planetary precession.
The necessary formula for E is given by Allen.s
3. Solve the spherical triangles KPS, PSN (fig. 2), TSH, TSH', ALH, and A'L'H,
to obtain the arcs A'T and TA in degrees.
4. Apply the proper motion of Sirius in longitude and hence the motion of T on the
ecliptic in order to find a fixed point T' on the ecliptic such that the time between
successive passages of the Sun through T' is just a sidereal year of 365'25636 days.
5. Convert the lengths of the arcs A'T' and T'A from degrees to days. Here it is
necessary to remember that the Sun's angular motion along the ecliptic is variable,
being greatest when the Earth is at perihelion and least at aphelion. Thus we have to
find the positions of A', T', and A relative to the Earth's longitude of perihelion (which
I P. V. Neugebauer, Tafeln sur astronomischen Chronologie, I. Sterntafeln. Leipzig, 1912.
2 C. W. Allen, Astrophysical Quantities, znd ed. (London, 1963), § 10.
 M. F. INGHAM
is the Sun's longitude at aphelion and which also changes with time)! in order to find
how long the Sun takes to go from A' to T' and from T' to A.

TABLE 1. Lengths of the arcs A'T', T'A, and A'A in days

Year A'T' T'A Period of

(days) (days) invisibility
(days)

-4000 13"71 59"9 1 73"62

-3000 15"64 53"82 69"46
-2000 18"46 47"9 1 66"37
-1000 21'95 42'33 64'28
° 26"06 37"°3 63"°9
+1000 30"76 32"18 62'94
+2000 35"90 27'7 8 63. 68

FIG. 2.

Table I shows the results of these steps and that the period of invisibility was shorten-
ing until +970 when the longitude of Sirius was 90°, and is now lengthening again.
The actual period of invisibility is longer than shown because we have assumed that
the star can be seen on the horizon.
To obtain the length of the Sothic year of rising at any epoch, we need to calculate
I c. W. Allen, Astrophysical Quantities, znd ed, (London, 1963), § 66.
 THE LENGTH OF THE SOTHIC CYCLE 39
the rate of change of T' A expressed in days per year and this will be the amount by
which the Sothic year is less than the sidereal year. In table 2, col. 2 contains the years
which correspond approximately to the mid points of the first four Sothic cycles,
assuming that the first began in -4226. In col. 3 are the rates of change of T'A, in
col. 4 the lengths of the Sothic year, i.e. the mean length for each cycle, and in col. 5
are the lengths of the cycles themselves. The figures in col. 5 are derived from those in
TABLE 2. Lengths of the first four Sothic cycles and the mean length of the Sothic year
in each cycle; constant arcus visionis

Cycle Middle year Rate of change Length of Length of From To

of T'A mean Sothic cycle
(days per year) year (years)
(days)
-3497 0'00611 365'25025 1458 -4226 -2768
2 -2040 0'00577 365'25059 145 6 -2768 -13 12
3 -586 0'00532 365'25 104 1453 -1312 +14 1
4 +866 0'00472 365'25 164 1450 +14 1 +159 1

col. 4 as follows. The Sothic cycle is the period of the precession of the Sothic year
against the year of 365 days. Thus when the length of the Sothic year is 365'25025
days the length of the cycle is
65
3 = 1458'5 years of 365 days
0'25 025
365
or 1458'5 X 6 = 1457.6 tropical years.
3 5'24 22
Thus it is apparent that the length of the Sothic cycle is variable and is at present
decreasing. However, the change is small and the value of 1456 years for the length of
the second cycle agrees with that given by Schoch. I It is therefore unlikely that any
but minor adjustments to the system of Egyptian chronology will need to be made.
Throughout this work we have assumed that the arcus visionis is a constant angle
(apart from variations in individual vision and weather conditions). But it is clear that
when the Sun and Sirius are far apart in azimuth the star will be visible near the hori-
zon at a smaller solar depression than when they are close together. The arc SL (fig. I)
is the distance in question for heliacal rising and decreases from about 65° in -4000
to 46° in + 2000. Thus the arcus visionis might have been less in the past than now,
which would make the early values of T' A somewhat less than those given in table I.
This in turn would reduce the rate of change of T' A and so increase the length of the
Sothic year and decrease that of the Sothic cycle. If, however, in order to estimate the
magnitude of this effect, we suppose that y varied linearly from a value of 8° in -4000
to 9° in + 2000, we find that the length of each cycle is reduced by no more than two
years. Now the year of commencement of a cycle can be known only to within a period
of four years since heliacal rising occurs on the same date for four successive years.
I Loc. cit,
40 M. F. INGHAM
Thus the effect is unlikely to be of significance for the first two Sothic cycles but there-
after becomes increasingly important. Table 3 shows how the figures in table 2 are
altered if we suppose that y has changed with time.
TABLE 3. Lengths of the first four Sothic cycles and the mean length of the Sothic year
in each cycle; changing arcus visionis

Cycle Middle year Rate of change Length of Length of From To

of T'A mean Sothic cycle
(days per year) year (days) (years)
1 -3498 0'005 85 365'2505 1 1456 -4226 -2770
2 -2043 0'0055 1 365'25085 1454 -2770 -13 16
3 -590 0'00510 365'25 126 1452 -13 16 +13 6
4 +861 0'00455 365'25 18 1 1449 +13 6 +1585