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Muth ( 1961 )

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A :

B E
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F

Bernard WALLISER, Anticipations équilibres et rationalité économique, Calmann-Lévy, :

France, 1985, p 15.

(1937-1936)

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Adaptive Expectations Static Expectations Hypothesis

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Regressive

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1971 Lucas 1961 Muth

Learning Hypotheses

Models Rational Learning Models

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Static Expectations Hypothesis 1.2

. [02]
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Adaptive Expectations Hypothesis 2.2
[04]
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« Naive model » : "
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Modigliani 1961 Muth

1954 Grunberg

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Rational Expectations Hypothesis 3.2
.John Muth
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(Royal commission) Marshall (1887)

[07]
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Marshall .
 Robert Shiller . Marshall
[08]
. 1954 Grunberg Modigliani

Modigliani (1961) Muth

[09]
" Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements "

Robert E. Lucas 1961

[10]
1976 Barro, R 1973 Thomas J. Sargent 1976 1973 1972

Muth

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Learning Hypotheses 4.2
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« seriable »

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WALLISER (1983) elimination)

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Rational Learning Model §

[14]
Private signals

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Taylor (1975) Brandenburger (1985) ,Townsend (1983) ,

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[15]
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Probability Limits

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Bernard WALLISER, Anticipations équilibres et rationalité économique, Calmann-Lévy, France, :

1985, p 40.
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1- Favereau O. Probability and uncertainty, after all, Keynes was right, Mimeo, 1983.
2- G.K. SHAW p20
3- The general theory
4- Cagan, P. (1956), the monetary dynamics of hyperinflation, in studies in quantity theory of money, Friedman,
M. (ed.), University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
5- DAVID p23
6- PESARAN, M. H. (1989), The Limits to Rational Expectation, Basil Blackwell Ltd, Oxford, UK, p17
7- Patrick Minford and David Pell, (1983), Rational expectations and the new macroeconomics, Martin
Robertson (ed), Oxford, UK, p 7.
8- Shiller, R.J. (1978), Rational expectations and the dynamic structure of macroeconomic models -a
critical review, journal of monetary economics, 4, p 1.
9- Muth, J.F. (1961), Rational expectations and the theory of price movement, Robert E. Lucas, Jr. And Thomas
J. Sargent, editor, Rational expectations and econometric practice, The university of Minnesota Press,
Minneapolis, USA, 1984, p 3-22.
10- Robert J. Barro (1976), Rational Expectations and the Role of Monetary Policy, Journal of monetary
economics, 1976, vol.2, North-Holland Publishing Company.
11- PESARAN, M. H. (1989), p 32
12- Ibid, p 33
13- Bernard WALLISER, Anticipations équilibres et rationalité économique, Calmann-Lévy, France, 1985, p 159.
14- PESARAN, M. H. (1989), p 34
15- STEVEN M.SHEFFRIN (1983), Rational Expectations, Cambridge Survey of Economic Literature,
Cambridge university Press, UK, p 01