Article Review Template

University of the Philippines School of Urban and Regional Planning

Plan 214 – Planning Analysis (under Dr. N. Agustin)

Student Name Fil Garciano

Student Number 202021077
Author(s) of Article Jiaqi Yao, Fan Mo, Haoran Zhai, Shiyi Sun, Karl-Heinz Feger, Lulu
Zhang, Xinming Tang, Guoyuan Li, Hong Zhu
Year of Article 2022
Journal Title Ecological Indicators
Volume and page numbers of Volume 145, 10 pages
Article
Publisher of Article Elsevier Ltd.

Use your own words and sentences to complete each section. DO NOT copy the abstract.

● What was the main

objective of the article? The article considers the Miyun Reservoir in Beijing,
Explain China, a water reservoir system which is critical in the
ecological system of Northern China, particularly how
natural and human factors may drive changes in the
watershed region’s ecosystem. To determine these
changes, Yao, et. al. embarked on a comprehensive time
series analysis of digital remote-sensing satellite imagery
data where they applied deep learning–an artificial
intelligence and machine learning technique–to account
for outliers that would be unaccounted for in a
conventional analysis.

As such, the article posits a theoretical model for

predicting these variations across physical space and time
to make the necessary corrections to create more
accurate and substantive analyses on the Miyun Reservoir
and ecological activities driving changes within the
system. This theoretical model would, in essence, be
applicable to other large-scale satellite-based analyses of
ecological improvement or degradation as a form of
environmental evaluation, helping planners determine the
extent of human activity and whether or not policies and
industrial practices are, in fact, assisting conservation
efforts or conversely, contributing to its detriment.
● How did the author(s) go
about investigating the In the article, the authors seek to develop a theoretical
issue(s)? Expound model for predicting “spatio-temporal variations” or
changes within both time and space in relation to some
metrics, while applying deep learning, a subset of machine
learning, to correct values within the extended time series
data of satellite remote sensing data over the Miyun
Reservoir. Unlike a conventional satellite analysis of a
given area that derives features based solely on the
available satellite imagery, which often contains some
discrepancies in terms of visibility due to some
environmental, meteorological, or technical factors,
through deep learning, the authors were able to correct
these variations to make a more rigorous and substantive
model.

Specifically, these variations were treated as mutations

and tested by applying the Mann-Kendall test, which is a
technique in statistics and machine learning that
determines whether a given set of data significantly
increases or decreases over a given time series. Testing
mutations or variations in data in such a way would help in
normalizing errors and determining particularly which
errors may be due to some random variation, i.e., some
environmental factors such as clouding of imagery or
some technical factor affecting the images themselves.
The significance values are then fitted to a linear
regression model utilizing a Sen estimator to fit the
regression model and to further identify outliers. Particular
emphasis is given to these methods given the sensitivity
of dealing with significance values in a time-series, which
is inherently more mathematically and programatically
rigorous, but reveals more significant and valuable
insights compared to applying similar methods to a
disjointed set of data or by relying on technical
assumptions within a conventional analysis when a
time-series classifier is applied.

In measuring the actual changes within the ecosystem of

the Miyun, Yao, et. al. primarily use the Remote Sensing
based Ecological Index (RSEI), an index that factors in
natural elements including vegetation, humidity, LST,
building index using principal component analysis to
 evaluate ecological elements: greenness, humidity, heat,
and dryness, which is modeled as follows:

This model is then applied to landsat imagery from the

Google Earth Engine dataset, and these models are then
run through the deep learning process, thereby
undergoing Mann-Kendall and Sen testing, and thereafter
applying a RECALL classifier that establishes
relationships between timestamps in the time-series
analysis.

The area of interest in the analysis where the analytic

models are applied would be the Miyun Reservoir,
composed of two main dams and five secondary dams,
built initially designed for flood control, irrigation, power
generation, strategic water reserve, and river water
management.

Further, the deep learning model intrinsic to the analysis in

the article may closely consider future scenarios such that
would minimize present deviations in data that may result
from atmospheric conditions (cloud, aerosol shading) and
lighting factors that lead to measurement errors thereby
making significant forecasts for future RSEI values.

● What were the main

findings? Explain. The model applied has two primary abilities given its
sophisticated application of environmental analysis, deep
learning, statistical testing, and time-series analysis: the
model can provide a more accurate “snapshot” for the
conditions of the Miyun Reservoir at any given point in
time relative to comparative analysis because of the
manner in which the model accounts for potential
variations or disruptions again due to environmental or
technical factors. The snapshots generated by this
analysis would therefore have corrected features, thereby
allowing planners to make more informed and sound
decisions regarding the available data. Second, in
determining variations due to technical or environmental
errors, models for variations in general can also be
derived, particularly the speed in which these variations
occur over the given time-series. This is particularly useful
in determining such things as the rate of change over the
area of interest, i.e., vis-a-vis environmental change of the
given reservoir, the rate in which degradation and
conservation take place, which has profound implications
in the measurement of effects of human activity and
corresponding conservation efforts.

The RSEI was then derived for the time period of 1985 to
2021 applying the improved model. It was found that
fluctuations of RSEI exponentially increased year-on-year,
pointing primarily downward indicating a general decline
particular for the period between 1997. It was also found,
however, that ecological quality peaked 15 years later in
2012, but has since then resumed fluctuations in
degradation and conservation at an increasing rate.

It was also determined that RSEI changed considerably

primarily in mountainous areas, urban areas, and the
areas of expansion in the Reservoir. Logically, human
activity is considered the primary contributor to the
fluctuations in the urban areas and the mountainous
areas, likely due to industrial activities taking place in said
areas. A continuous expansion of the reservoir banks has
also been observed.

Generally, it can be surmised that despite the fluctuations,

general degradation has occurred for the period between
1985 to 2021, where the particular areas experiencing
degradation correspond to the areas with high levels of
human activity.

Given the RSEI function, the main factors affecting

environmental changes were determined, particularly:
natural conditions and ecological impact of human activity.
General climatic and geological changes contribute to the
changes in natural conditions, particularly in topography,
soil and substrate conditions, and other climatic
conditions. In terms of human activity, domestic water use,
construction of water conservation measures, and land
use activities that come with accelerated development and
high rates of urbanization are the primary contributors.
● Give at least 5 major
learnings related to the One of the most striking findings in the article is the rate
course. Explain. and manner in which conservation and degradation take
place. Conventionally, the manner in which a given
ecological system would be understood in a simple linear
manner, i.e., that degradation or conservation is going
only upward or downward. However, given the model
developed in this article, the nuanced variations in the
rates of degradation and conservation are more easily
understood and visualized, and reminds a planner
analyzing such data that any given environmental system
is always in flux, particularly those that are heavily
affected by human activities. Applying such an analytic
approach would also allow for the easier determination of
the extent of damage contributing to degradation as well
as the degree in which environmental interventions are
effective. Having such nuanced approaches and therefore
substantive insights would allow for the accurate
recalibration of interventions and determining policy
interventions to mitigate degradation.

The same analysis would yield profound insights in the

Philippine context, given high rates of urbanization in
regional cores even outside Metro Manila and where
these urban environments interact sensitively with rich and
complex ecological environments. The nuance in the
methodology detailed in the article could potentially
account for the complex nature of urbanization in the
Philippines vis-a-vis the equally-complex natural systems
and geography, given that the urban-ecological systems in
the Philippines are characterized by largely unplanned
urban systems situated in river deltas and defined by
mountain ranges. There is thus a substantial need for
approaches that account for such complexities in order to
make environmental analyses required in the Philippine
planning process more grounded on the actual changes
being experienced in the country’s urbs-orbis.

Practically speaking, similar analyses would provide

efficient metrics in determining the extent of the effect of
long-term human activities over ecological systems. One
of the most direct applications would be determining the
impact of mining, a present-day flashpoint in terms of
industrial, economic, and environmental policy. The
trade-off of supporting a mining industry amidst a global
economy in dire need of components in vital industries
such as chip-making and the production of cellular
phones, versus the adverse impact mining as an industrial
activity could have on remote communities and pristine
ecological systems is the primary factor in this policy
stalemate. Applying such analysis to existing mining
initiatives and even past mining efforts could assist in
determining the real degradation experienced in mining
towns. Should the government choose to pursue its
“sustainable mining” policy, this same approach may be a
decent metric in the overall measurement of its impact.

The same can be done for determining the quality of

watershed regions in the country. During the 2022 typhoon
season, the Marikina Valley watershed region and how the
construction of the Kaliwa Dam affects its source was one
of the popular discussions. At the same time, discussions
on the overall deforestation and illegal quarrying activities
in the Sierra Madre was also a key issue relating to how
typhoons impact Metro Manila, in particular, and how
human activity affecting both the Marikina watershed
region and the Sierra Madre may be degrading the
“natural barriers” and natural water systems that
contribute to mitigating typhoon impact. Applying an
analysis akin to the analysis in this article would give
empirical bases to any arguments regarding the
degradation in the area, and would inform policy makers
on the real conditions of the given area and the effect of
any conservation effort, big ticket project, or any human
intervention or activity in general over these natural
systems.

It is worth noting that these forms of analyses are indeed

feasible in the Philippine context. The University, through
Project NOAH and UP DREAM, has led in the effort to
amass sufficient baseline data on the dynamics of
watershed regions through LiDar acquisition efforts
conducted in 2015. This would serve as a sufficient
starting point-dataset for any kind of analysis that would
seek to apply the analytical model detailed by Yao, et. al.
 Generally speaking, this paper also highlights that the
global academe in urban planning has begun exploring
new tools including deep learning and machine learning to
correct and augment baseline data in conventional
analyses. The field of Philippine planning must also,
therefore, embrace similar techniques that go beyond
technical analysis and embrace quantitative,
computational approaches to make up for gaps in historic
data, which is a common struggle in planning for the
country. Through these new approaches, old tools can be
understood in a new light, and new approaches that can
intensively comprehend, backcast, simulate, may be
uncovered and applied to capture the complexities of the
planning objects and objectives Philippine planners are
confronted with.

The results of Yao et al have demonstrated how

fluctuating degradation and conservation vis-a-vis human
activity can be. Given that Planning as a field, particularly
in the Philippine context, is inherently forward-looking, it
therefore requires a solid bedrock of accurate data. Data
gathering must therefore be prioritized and these new
approaches, those that tap the potential of new
methodologies such as artificial intelligence and machine
learning, which rely on intensive quantitative analyses to
backcast, would solve the problems of gaps in historical
analysis due to random variations or human errors and
allow planners to forecast with some degree of certainty,
potential outcomes and the effects of any further activity or
intervention.

● Make at least 5
suggestions as to how Despite the substantiveness and computational rigor of
this article might be the study, as with most studies, further context would
improved. allow for a greater appreciation of the findings. Future
articles may choose to apply the same method to another
major reservoir system, such as the Three Gorges Dam
system along the Yangtze and near Yichang and Wuhan,
thereby providing context to the rates of change as
determined in this article so that those perusing the study
may have baseline comparisons in terms of degradation
and conservation to make rigorous assessments.
An application of different ecological assessment models
aside from RSEI, say for instance a Grey systems
assessment model, which is a subset of ordinary
clustering analysis, would provide a sufficient comparison
for how the model behaves when another method of
environmental analysis is applied. Grey systems analysis
particularly, for instance, would introduce coefficients that
account for partially clear data common in landsat
imagery. Having two environmental models, one that is
straightforward in its approach and another that accounts
for further “grayness” or indiscernibility would provide
another degree of substantiveness to the derived
outcomes of the model.

Furthermore, the analytic model discussed in the article is

one that extensively applied computational approaches,
particularly that of deep learning. Although not an absolute
requirement, it has become a best practice in the field of
machine learning (which deep learning is an important
subset of) to display or allow access to the specific code
used to make the analysis. In a sense, this acts as an
open-source and crowd-sourced means for peer-review,
that allows scrutiny over the model but also contributes to
assisting future proponents of similar studies to make
analyses of similar quality and rigor.