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john@anzaloneresearch.com

August 21, 2006

To: Interested Parties

Fr: John Anzalone / Marc Silverman
Re: Summary of Polling Results in New Hampshire CD-02

Republican Congressman Charlie Bass is in the re-election fight of his life with recent polling
showing him in a statistical dead heat with Democratic challenger Paul Hodes. Bass continues to
be caught in the national backlash against Republicans in Washington. A large majority of
voters believe the country is headed in the wrong direction and give George Bush and the U.S.
Congress negative job ratings. Bass now finds himself facing an electorate that prefers a
Democratic candidate on the generic ballot and someone new in the re-elect measure. New
Hampshire’s 2nd Congressional district is ready to elect a Democrat to Congress.

Current Vote
• Incumbent Charlie Bass holds a one-point lead over challenger Paul Hodes (43% Bass /
42% Hodes); without leaners the race is a dead heat (40% Bass / 40% Hodes).

Support Measures
• Vote expansion will be extremely difficult for Bass who has a 94% name ID compared to
Hodes’ 27%. In addition, Bass now finds himself in the unenviable position of trailing
on the re-elect measure (54% someone new / 37% re-elect).

• The generic ballot favors a Democratic candidate by a whopping 21 points (50%

Democrat / 29% Republican), with more voters identifying themselves as Democrat than
Republican (45% Democrat / 34% Republican).

Political Environment
• Broad dissatisfaction with Washington and the Republican-controlled Congress is hurting
Bass. A majority of voters think the United States is moving in the wrong direction (24%
right direction / 66% wrong direction), three-fourths (75%) of voters give Congress a
negative job rating, and 69% give George Bush a negative job rating.

• On the other hand, being a Democrat in New Hampshire is helping Hodes. Democratic
Governor John Lynch receives a 79% favorability rating and is currently getting 72% of
the vote here. Historically, this is a 50.3% Democratic performance district (John Kerry
won here) and Republicans only have a four-point registration advantage over
Democrats. The polling sample used in this survey also reflects a Republican registration
advantage.

Anzalone Liszt Research conducted N=602 telephone interviews with likely 2006 general election
voters in New Hampshire CD-02. Interviews were conducted between August 14-20, 2006.
Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically based on past voter
turnout. Expected margin of sampling error for these results is ±4.0% with a 95% confidence level.