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Caie As Level Maths 9709 Statistics 1 v2
Caie As Level Maths 9709 Statistics 1 v2
ORG
CAIE AS LEVEL
MATHS (9709)
SUMMARIZED NOTES ON THE STATISTICS 1 SYLLABUS
CAIE AS LEVEL MATHS (9709)
1. Representation of Data
1.1. Types of Data
1.4. Histograms
1.2. Stem-and-Leaf Diagrams A bar chart which represents continuous data
Bars have no space between them
Used to represent data in its original form.
Area of each bar is proportional to frequency
Each piece of data split into 2 parts; stem & leaf.
Leaf can only by 1 digit and should be written in
F requency = F requency Density × Class Width
ascending order
Always include a key on your diagram. For open ended class width, double the size of previous
class width
and use this
If range ‘0 − 9’ then class width is ‘−0.5 ≤ x ≤ 9.5’
2. Measure of Location
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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHS (9709)
2.2. Median
3. Measure of Spread
Middle value when data ordered
th
If n odd, median
= 12 (n + 1) value
Not affected be extreme values Deviation from the mean is the difference from a value
from the mean
value
The standard deviation is the average of all of these
Estimating Median from Grouped Frequency
Table: deviations
x Frequency f Cumulative Frequency If coded mean and sums given, use as it is, standard
10 − 20 4 4 deviation not
altered
20 − 25 8 12
25 − 35 5 17 3.2. Variance of Discrete Data
35 − 50 3 20 1
∑ (xi − x)2
n
Solution:
Use cumulative frequency to find the middle value i.e. or
1
20 ÷ 2 = 10 ∑ x2i − x2
n
∴ you are finding the 10th value Standard deviation is the square root of that
The 10th value lies between 20 and 25
3.3. Variance in Frequency Table
∑ (xi −x)2 fi ∑ x 2f
or ∑ ifi i − x2
∑ fi
{W04-P06} Question 4:
The ages, x years, of 18 people attending an evening class
are
summarised by the following totals:
(12 − 4) : (25 − 20) ∑ x = 745, ∑ x2 = 33 951
i. Calculate the mean and standard deviation of the ages of
(12 − 10) : (25 − M edian) this group
of people.
12 − 10 ii. One person leaves group and mean age of the remaining
25 − M edian = × (25 − 20) 17 people is
exactly 41 years. Find age of the person who left
12 − 4
and standard
deviation of the ages of the remaining 17
M edian = 23.75 people.
Solution:
2.3. Mean Part (i):
∑ x2 ∑x
Sum of data divided by number of values σ= − x 2 x =
n n
∑ xi
x= σ = 13.2 x = 41.4
n
or Part (ii):
The total age of the 18 people
∑ xi fi
x= ∑ x = 745
∑ fi
Important as it uses all the data values Find the total age of the 17 people
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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHS (9709)
n
2 events which have no common outcomes or can’t
∴ ∑ x = 2900.5 × 22
2 happen at the same
time.
Examples of MEEs:
∑ x2 = 63811 Looking Left & Looking Right.
Coin toss: Heads & Tails.
Cards: Kings & Aces.
4. Probability Examples of not MEEs:
Cards: Kings and Hearts. (we have Kings of Hearts)
Students: People who study French and Spanish
4.1. Basic Rules (some can study
both)
Rules of MEEs:
All probabilities lie between 0 and 1
P (A) = The probability of event A P (A and B) = 0
P (A ) = 1 − P (A) = The
probability of not A
′
P (A and B)
=0
{S08-P06} Question 7:
A die is biased so that the probability of throwing a 5 is 0.75 Because of events can happen at the same time, so
and
probabilities of throwing a 1, 2, 3, 4 or 6 are all equal. probability of both
events happening is not 0.
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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHS (9709)
P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B ) − P (A and B) This is a conditional probability question, and we have to look
for
P (Attends ∣ Chosen).
When adding P(A) & P(B), we counted the “middle part” twice,
so we must
subtract it. P (Attends and Chosen)
P (Attends∣Chosen) =
Example: P (Chosen)
P (A and B) 1. Independent
P (B ∣A) =
P (A) 2. mutually exclusive
get a
king given that you’ve already gotten one. Tim throws a fair die twice and notes the number on each
throw. Events
A, B, C are defined as follows.
{S07-P06} Question 2: A: the number on the second throw is 5
Jamie is equally likely to attend or not to attend a training B: the sum of the numbers is 6
session
before a football match. If he attends, he is certain to C: the product of the numbers is even
be chosen for
the team which plays in the match. If he does By calculation find which pairs, if any, of the events A, B and
not attend, there is a
probability of 0.6 that he is chosen for C are
independent.
the team. Solution:
Probability of Event A = P(Any Number) × P(5)
1. Find probability that Jamie is chosen for team.
2. Find the probability that Jamie attended the training 1 1
∴ P (A) = 1 × =
6 6
session, given
that he was chosen for the team
Finding the probability of Event B
Solution:
Number of ways of getting a sum of 6:
Part (i)
5 and 1 1 and 5 4 and 2 2 and 4 3 and 3
Probability attends training and chosen
1 1 5
0.5 × 1 = 0.5 ∴ P (B ) = ( × )×5=
6 6 36
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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHS (9709)
which is
36 × 36 . This method is much easier because
if one
(Number of Letters)!
does a direct method, they will have to count Even ×
Even (Repeated Letter)!
Solution:
=
P (A) × P (B)
3 (9!) × (2!)
P (A and C) = P [(2, 5) + (4, 5) + (6, 5)] =
36
=
P (B) × P (C) Total arrangements when items cannot be together:
Example:
∴ none are independent. In how many ways can the letters in the word SUCCESS be
As said from the previous worked question, we use the arranged if no
two S’s are next to one another?
equation P (A and B) = P (A) × P (B)
not as a formula Solution:
but as a test to see whether two events are
independent or
not.
Coin tosses
Dice rolling 5.2. Combination
Examples of not Independent events:
Picking a ball from a bag (The next probability will The number of ways of selecting r objects
from n unlike
increase
due to a decrease in the number of balls in objects is:
the bag)
Multiplication Law for IEs: n n!
Cr =
r! (n − r)!
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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHS (9709)
The probability distribution of a discrete random variable and remainder choose Music.
Of the girls, 30choose Games,
is a
listing of the possible values of the variable and the 55 choose Drama and
remainder choose Music. 5 drama
corresponding
probabilities students are chosen. Find the
probability that at least 1 of
Total of all probability always equals 1 them is a boy.
Can calculate unknowns in a probability distribution by Solution:
summing them
to equal 1 First, we calculate the probability of selecting a boy who is a
drama
student; a conditional probability:
{S05-P06} Question 3: P (Boy∣Drama)
A fair dice has four faces. One face is coloured pink, one is P (S ) =
P (Drama)
orange,
one is green and one is black. Five such dice are
thrown and the number
that fall on a green face is counted. P (S ) =
The random variable X is the
number of dice that fall on a P (Boy) × P (Drama)
green face. Draw up a table for
probability distribution of X, (P (Boy) × P (Drama)) + (P (Girl) × P (Drama))
1 4
1 3
P (X = 1) = 5C1 ( ) ( ) = 0.3955
4 4 P (X ≥ 1) = 0.701
E (x2 ) = ∑ (xi ) × pi
2
P (X = x) =n Cx × px × q (n−x)
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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHS (9709)
4 P (X = x) = p(1 − p)x−1
P (3m Rope) =
5
1 p = Probability of success
P (5m Rope) = Only for x ≥ 1 and x a positive integer
5
p
5 5
{ S20-P51}Question 1:
Calculate expectation squared The score when two fair six-sided dice are thrown is the s um
of the two numbers on the upper faces
4 1
E (x2 ) = ∑ (xi ) × pi = (32 × ) + (52 × ) = 12.2
2 a) Show that the probability that the score is 4 is 12 1
5 5
Solution: 1
Because p =
Calculate the mean of X 12
∴ μ = 12
E (X ) = 14 × 0.75 = 10.5
Part (c)
Successful puzzles completed has to be a whole number so
can either be
10 or 11. First obtained in the 6th throw means
P (X = x), using the
formula for geometric mean:
P (10) = 14C10 × 0.7510 × 0.254 = 0.220
1 6−1
1
P (11) = 14C11 × 0.75 × 0.25 = 0.240 11 3 P (X = 6) = ( ) (1 − )
12 12
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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHS (9709)
7
1 1 n−1 X −μ
∑ (1 − ) Z=
σ
12 12
n=1
Example:
For a random variable X with normal distribution
This is just a geometric series since our r is between -1 and 1,
−1 < r < 1. Let us use the formula of the sum of geometric X ∼ N (20, 42 )
series:
Solution:
N
1− rN
∑ a (r)n−1 = a 1. Find the probability of P (X ≤ 25)
1−r
n=1
Standardize the probability
Applying it:
25 − 20
7 7 Z= = 1.25
1 11 n−1
1 1 − ( 11
12 ) 4
∑( ) =
12 n=1 12 12 1 − 11
12
Search for this value in normal tables
1
Both the 12 cancels, leaving us with:
Φ (1.25) = 0.8944
P (X ≥ 25) = 1 − P (X ≤ 25)
Using the probability from above
P (Z ≤ −2) = 1 − P (Z ≤ 2)
Plot 3 × σ to the left and right i.e. 30 − 21 = 9
and 30 +
21 = 51. Follow example for the other curves. Search for 2 in the normal tables
P (a ≤ Z ≤ b) = P (Z ≤ b) − P (Z ≤ a)
Standardize values
9.2. Standardizing a Normal Distribution
= P (Z ≤ 2.5) − P (Z ≤ −2.5)
To convert a statement about X ∼ N (μ, σ 2 ) to a
Convert negative value to positive
statement about N (0, 1), use the standardization
equation:
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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHS (9709)
{S12-P61} Question 6:
0.1587 × 2 = 0.3174
The lengths of body feathers of a particular species of bird Multiply probability with sample
are
modelled by a normal distribution. A researcher 0.3174 × 1000 = 317 birds
measures the lengths of
a random sample of 600 feathers
and finds that 63 are less than 6 cm
long and 155 are more
than 12 cm long. 9.5. Approximation of Binomial
i. Find estimates of the mean and standard deviation of the Distribution
lengths of
body feathers of birds of this species.
ii. In a random sample of 1000 body feathers from birds of The normal distribution can be used as an approximation
this species,
how many would the researcher expect to find to the
binomial distribution
with lengths more than
1 standard deviation from the mean? For a binomial to be converted to normal, then:
Solution:
Part (i): For X∼ B(n, p) where q = 1 − p:
Interpreting the question and finding probabilities: np > 5 and nq > 5
P (X < 6) = 0.105 P (X > 12) = 0.258
If conditions are met then:
For X < 6, the probability cannot be found on the tables
which
means it is behind the mean and therefore we must X ∼ B (n, p) ⇔ V ∼ N (np, npq )
find 1− and
assume probability is negative
σ x ≥ 6 x ≥ 5.5
Convert the greater than sign to less than x < 6 x ≤ 5.5
P (X > 12) = 1 − P (X < 12) x ≤ 6 x ≤ 6.5
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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHS (9709)
Apply the continuity correction As it is a negative value, we must one minus again
73.5 − 80
Z= = −1.211
28.8
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CAIE AS LEVEL
Maths (9709)