JOURNAL OF QUATERNARY SCIENCE (2019) 1–14 ISSN 0267-8179. DOI: 10.1002/jqs.

3178

Did the Harappan settlement of Dholavira (India) collapse during the

onset of Meghalayan stage drought?
TORSA SENGUPTA,1 ARATI DESHPANDE MUKHERJEE,2 RAVI BHUSHAN,3 F. RAM,1 M. K. BERA,1 HARSH RAJ,3
ANKUR J. DABHI,3 R. S. BISHT,4 Y. S. RAWAT,5 S. K. BHATTACHARYA,1 NAVIN JUYAL3 and ANINDYA SARKAR1*
1
Department of Geology and Geophysics, Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur, 721302, India
2
Deccan College Post Graduate and Research Institute, Pune, 411006, India
3
Physical Research Laboratory Navrangpura, Ahmedabad, 380009, India
4
Archaeological Survey of India, New Delhi, India
5
Department of Sports, Youth & Culture, Government of Gujarat, Gandhinagar, 382010, India
Received 7 April 2019; Revised 19 November 2019; Accepted 2 December 2019

ABSTRACT: Radiocarbon dating of archaeological carbonates from seven cultural stages of Dholavira, Great Rann
of Kachchh (GRK), the largest excavated Harappan settlement in India, suggests the beginning of occupation
at ~5500 years BP (pre‐Harappan), and continuation until ~3800 years BP (early part of the Late Harappan period). The
settlement rapidly expanded under favourable monsoonal climate conditions when architectural elements such as
the Citadel, Bailey, Lower and Middle Town were added between the Early and mid‐Mature Harappan periods.
Abundant local mangroves grew around the GRK sustaining prolific populations of the edible gastropod Terebralia
palustris. Oxygen isotope (δ18O) sclerochronology of Early Harappan gastropod shell suggests seasonal mixing of
some depleted (δ18O ~ −12‰) river water in summer/monsoon months (through ancient Saraswati and/or Indus
distributary channels) with seawater that periodically inundated the GRK. Evaporation from this semi‐enclosed water
body during the non‐monsoon months enriched the δ18O of water/shell carbonates. The humid fluvial landscape
possibly changed due to a catastrophic drought driving the final collapse of the settlement of Dholavira exactly at the
onset of the Meghalayan (Late Holocene) stage (~4300–4100 years BP). Indeed, Dholavira presents a classic case for
understanding how climate change can increase future drought risk as predicted by the IPCC working group.
Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
KEYWORDS: Dholavira; Harappan; Meghalayan stage; Rann of Kachchh; river oxygen isotope

Introduction
The International Commission on Stratigraphy (ICS) has recently
introduced a new ‘Meghalayan Stage’ (4200 years BP to present)
as the latest geological age during the Holocene epoch
(stratigraphy.org/ICSchart/ChronostratChart2018‐07.pdf). The
Global Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) for the Meghgalayan
Stage/Age is in a stable oxygen isotope record from a cave
speleothem in Mawmluh Cave (Meghalaya state, NE India),
where an abrupt enrichment in the oxygen isotopic composition
(δ18O) in speleothem cave carbonate between 4300 and
4100 years BP marks a significant change in the strength of the
Indian summer monsoon (Berkelhammer et al., 2012). This is a
reflection of a globally correlatable drought event at ~4200 years
BP (henceforth referred as the 4.2‐ka event) that is believed to
have led to the demise of several major Old World civilizations
including the Egyptian, Akkadian (Mesopotamia), Yangtze
(China), and the Indus valley civilization (IVC) in India and
Pakistan (DeMenocal, 2001; Stanley et al., 2003; Staubwasser
et al., 2003; Gao et al., 2007; Walker et al., 2012, 2019a,
2019b; Weiss, 2014).
In the context of the IVC (~5200–3300 years BP), major Bronze
Age settlements such as Mohenjo‐Daro, Harappa, Kot Diji,
Balakot and Kalibangan (Fig. 1a) were completely abandoned by
the end of the fourth millennium BP, around the beginning of the
Meghalayan Stage, when large‐scale urban decline took place
(Meadow, 1993; Kenoyer and Meadow, 2010; Wright, 2010;
*Correspondence: Anindya Sarkar, as above.
E‐mail: sarkaranindya@hotmail.com
Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Schug et al., 2013). Evidence from other sites, however, suggests
that rather than being abrupt, the Indus valley civilization's
collapse was gradual (Misra et al., 1984; Kenoyer, 1997;
Possehl, 2002; Schug et al., 2013). The climatic and archae-
ological records, therefore, appear diachronous both globally as
well as across regions in the Indo‐Pakistan subcontinent. Part of
these conflicting interpretations arises because the palaeocli-
matic reconstructions are often made at places far from the IVC
settlements. These inconsistencies may also reflect the lack of
continuous chronology through the various IVC periods at any
given location. While the chronology of cultural periodization at
Harappa or Mohenjo‐Daro (northern and southern Indus
domains of the IVC; Possehl, 2002) is robust, in Cholistan,
Sorath (Gujarat) or in Eastern domains it is often weak. In India,
the major IVC sites are represented by Dholavira [Great Rann of
Kachchh (GRK) Gujarat], Rakhigarhi (Haryana), and Kalibangan
(Rajasthan: Fig. 1a), along with several smaller sites discovered
in the last few decades (Fig. 1). Of these three Harappan centres,
only Kalibangan has been extensively dated (Brunswig, 1975);
for the other sites, only limited dates are available (Shaffer, 1992;
Herman, 1996; Wright, 2010).
Dholavira (Fig. 1a,b) is the most spectacular IVC site in India
and the fifth largest in the sub‐continent in terms of areal
coverage (~70 ha). Although it is recognized as a world heritage
site (https://whc.unesco.org/en/tentativelists/5892/), detailed
chronological data have not been available until recently.
Excavated in the 1990s, only two thermoluminescence (TL)
dates of potsherds are available for its entire sequence
suggesting Late–Early Harappan (4759 ± 461 years BP) and
Mature Harappan (4252 ± 480 years BP) ages (Bisht, 2015). Not
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Figure 1. (a) Map of NW India and Pakistan showing the locations of major Harappan towns and smaller settlements of different periods including
those in Saurashtra and Kachchh, Gujarat (after Possehl, 2002). The present river courses of the Indus, Nara and Luni are also shown. (b) Map of
northern Saurashtra and Kachchh showing the location of the study area Dholavira on the rocky island of Khadir within the Great Rann of Kachchh
(southern fringe of the Thar Desert) close to the international border, along with smaller Harappan settlements. The river Nara and other distributaries
of the Indus possibly flowed further eastward than their present course(s) during the Harappan period, discharging their Indus‐like water into the GRK
along its northern periphery. A remotely sensed trace of a palaeochannel (ancient river Saraswati?) is also shown. The river Luni and many other
smaller monsoon‐fed streams originating in the hills of Aravalli and Kachchh possibly discharged their water into the GRK along its eastern and
southern periphery during the same time (for details see text). White dotted lines represent 100‐mm rainfall isohyets. Tidal incursion into the GRK
occurs today through the Kori creek that must have acted as a palaeoseaway during the mid‐Holocene highstand; arrows indicate the direction of
monsoon moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is
referred to the online version of the article.) [Color figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]

only do these dates have large errors, they show stratigraphic
inversion, raising questions about their reliability. The period-
ization of Dholavira settlement has therefore been made based
on archaeological pottery and other artefacts. Apart from the
chronology, the presence of this settlement in the GRK is itself
intriguing. The present climate of the GRK is harsh, freshwater
resources are scarce and hence the area is sparsely populated.
Yet several Harappan sites flourished in areas surrounding the
GRK between 5000 and 4000 years BP (Singh, 1996).
The question therefore arises as to how these settlements
originated and survived for thousands of years in such an
inhospitable climate. Was the climate then more conducive
than today?
Here we report the first detailed chronological account of
Dholavira to provide a time frame for the largest excavated
Harappan settlement of India. Furthermore, we provide mollusc‐
based δ18O/δ13C (oxygen and carbon isotope) sclerochronology
records from the Early and Late Mature Harappan stages to
explore possible links between climate, hydrology and human
settlement.
The Dholavira arcaheological site: materials
and methods
The GRK today is a vast shallow salt‐marsh flat, located at the
fringe of the Thar Desert. It is connected to the Arabian Sea
through various creeks (Fig. 1b) and receives <400 mm of
rainfall during the monsoon months (July–September). The
area is surrounded by and interspersed with elevated islands
of Jurassic rocks (Fig. 2a). The Harappan settlement of
Dholavira (23°53′10″N, 70°13′0″E) is situated on one such
island locally known as Khadir bet (Fig. 1b). Two ephemeral
stream channels, namely Manhar and Mansar, originating
from the north‐eastern hills run around the settlement of
Dholavira; they are mostly dry today and rarely flow during
the monsoon (Fig. 2b). Dholavira has a long history of
settlement displaying transformation through seven (I–VII)
preserved cultural stages from Early through Mature Har-
appan growth to a Late Harappan decadence that finally led
to de‐urbanization. It exhibits the typical three‐tier major
divisions of a Harappan city, namely Castle (Citadel), Middle
Town and Lower Town. These divisions possibly represent
hierarchical city dwelling by separate population groups and
were located at distinct positions and elevations. The Castle
was built at a central high location closer to the reservoirs
flanked by the Bailey and Middle Town while the Lower
Town was located at a lower level outside the fortification
wall (Fig. 2c,d). Dholavira also had the finest architectural
planning within its city and a fortification wall with highly
protective entrance equipped with various pillar elements
(Fig. 3a,b). The occupants also developed well‐built reser-
voirs at different elevations that were interconnected, thus
making an excellent water harvesting and conservation
system and drainage network consisting of terracotta pipes
to stone drains (Fig. 3c,d; Singh, 1996; Bisht, 2015). Details
of the seven archaeological stages and associated artefacts
are given in Supporting Information S1 and Fig. S2. A few
representative Mature Harappan (Stage IV) artefacts such as
storage jars, steatite seal, shell debitage, bangle and human
cut mangrove mollusc Terebralia palustris, used as food
items, are shown in Fig. 4(a–e). Also shown are characteristic
jars, pots and potsherds which display poor fabrics from the
Late Mature to Late Harappan period (stages V and VI;
Fig. 4f–i; after Bisht, 2015).
Twelve samples were radiocarbon dated by accelerator mass
spectrometry (AMS; protocol details are given in Supporting
Information S3). The materials included otoliths (calcium
carbonate concretions that form inside the fish ear on both
sides) and shell debitage/bangles made from the marine mollusc
Turbinella pyrum, traditionally used for making beads and
ornaments in the IVC settlements. Most of the samples were
retrieved from the trenches (No. 57, 58 × 2, 58 × 3) excavated in
the castle since these preserved the best stratigraphy (Fig. 2;

Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Quaternary Sci., 1–14 (2019)
 COLLAPSE OF HARAPPAN SETTLEMENT OF DHOLAVIRA IN MEGHALAYAN AGE DROUGHT 3

Figure 2. (a) Panoramic view of the GRK with its rocky island; Dholavira is located on one such island (b) Modern dry bed of the River Manhar
outside Dholavira. (c) Google Earth image of Dholavira showing the Castle, Bailey, Middle Town, Lower Town, reservoirs and course of the dry bed
of the River Manhar. (d) Elevation contour map of Dholavira with its components (redrawn after Singh, 1996; Bisht, 2015); note the two rivers Mansar
and Manhar on the northern and southern sides of the settlement. These rivers supplied monsoonal water to the adjacent reservoirs during the
Harappan period. [Color figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]

Supporting Information S2a). Two samples from trenches 25
(Lower Town) and 37 × 55 × 2 + 3 (near the eastern reservoir)
were also dated. For comparison, a modern otolith extracted
from a live fish from the Gulf of Kachchh was dated.
Radiocarbon ages were calibrated ( ± 2σ likelihood) to calendar
ages (cal. year BP) using Calib7.1.0 and the Marine13 data sets
(Stuiver and Reimer, 1993; Reimer et al., 2013), with reservoir
age correction ΔR estimated using samples from a nearby
location at Pirotan island (Bhushan et al., 1994). For calibrating
the freshwater mollusc, the IntCal13 data set was used (Bhushan

Figure 3. (a) Archaeological mound of Dholavira showing the fortification wall. (b) East‐facing entry gate to the castle showing pillar element.
(c) Large eastern reservoir. (d) In situ stone drain outside the fortification wall. [Color figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]

Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Quaternary Sci., 1–14 (2019)
4 JOURNAL OF QUATERNARY SCIENCE

Figure 4. (a,b) Decorated storage jars and steatite seal, Stage IV. (c–e) Turbinella pyrum shell debitage, complete bangle and human cut mangrove
mollusc Terebralia palustris, used for food consumption, Stage IV. (f,g) Pot and potsherds, Stage V. (h) Jar with horizontal decorated bands, Stage VI.
(i) Potsherds showing poor fabrics and surface treatments, Stage VI (after Bisht, 2015). [Color figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]

et al., 1994). For the present work the radiocarbon age ranges
corresponding to maximum relative areas (maximum probabil-
ity) have been used.
Shells of the gastropod species Terebralia palustris were
analysed for their δ18O and δ13C values as a basis for
reconstructing the climate (protocol detail is given in Supporting
Information S3). It is presumed that like any other bio‐
accretionary carbonates T. palustris also records the seasonal
climatic signal in 18O/13C composition of carbonate mineral
precipitated along its growth spiral (sclerochronology; Andrus,
2011). To validate this, one modern sample of T. palustris was
collected from the Gulf region and the δ18O/δ13C record was
compared with predicted equilibrium isotopic values based on
modern hydrographic/climatic parameters. In addition, a few
shell fragments of the marine gastropod Turbinella pyrum from
Dholavira and two other Harappan sites of Gujarat, and a
modern T. palustris fragment from the Ganges Delta mangrove,
were also analysed.
Results and discussion
Chronology of the Harappan settlement at
Dholavira
Table S4 provides 14C dates of the samples obtained from
various levels of Dholavira along with trench numbers, depth,
materials dated, and δ18O and δ13C values. Table 1 summarizes

Table 1. Summary of the age ranges with regard to Harappan periods and cultural elements at Dholavira.

Dholavira Radiocarbon age range

cultural stage (2σ, cal years BP) Harappan period Cultural elements*

VII Younger than 3827 Late to post‐urban (?) Harappan No cultural similarity with the Harappans, urban features of
classical Harappans completely absent, new circular rural
houses
Temporary desertion and hiatus
VI 4138–3827 Late Mature Harappan to Early Reduction in city area, complete new tradition in pottery and
Late Harappan building plans, classical pottery continued with declining
form, fabric and reduction in size
V† 4157–3980 Late Mature Harappan Declining phase of Harappan civilization, signs of lack of
maintenance, no addition of architectures, pottery styles
similar to classical Harappan ‘standard wares’ but poor
craftsmanship; water reservoirs abandoned
IV 4840–3919 Late Early Harappan to Late Fully developed and extended city, classical Harappan pottery,
Mature Harappan seals and copper–gold–silver workings, cessation of
expansion in later part
III† 4625–4585 Transitional phase, Late Early Largest and most creative expansion of the city, mud bricks
Harappan to Early Mature replaced by systematic use of stone bricks
Harappan
II 4958–4332 Transitional phase, Early to Aerial expansion of the city and fortification, developed pottery
Mature Harappan (Dholavira styles similar to typical Early Harappans in the type areas of
culture) Sindh and Mohenjo‐Daro (Possehl, 2000, 2002)
I 5491–4958 Pre‐ to Early Harappan A fairly advanced cultural level with fortification walls, copper
(Dholavira culture) and shell working, standardized mud brick manufacturing

*After Bisht (2015).

†
Harappan periods and age ranges are based on median ages (Table S4) and cultural elements of adjacent stages because no datable material was
available.

Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Quaternary Sci., 1–14 (2019)
 COLLAPSE OF HARAPPAN SETTLEMENT OF DHOLAVIRA IN MEGHALAYAN AGE DROUGHT 5

the age ranges with regard to Harappan periods and cultural
elements. A modern fish otolith from Gulf of Kachchh gave
a radiocarbon age of 98 ± 98 years BP, indicating the
reliability of dating otolith or other bio‐accretionary carbo-
nates. Figure 5 shows the lithologs of the three trenches
(Singh, 1996; Bisht, 2015) and the spatial correlation of the
seven stages (Supporting Information S1 and S2). Further
below, our discussion on the chronology of the seven stages,
as shown in Fig. 5, will be set in the context of the
conventional IVC chronology, i.e. Pre‐Harappan (older than
5200 years BP), Early Harappan (5200–4600 years BP), Mature
Harappan (4600–3900 yeras BP) and Late Harappan
(3900–3300 years BP; Kenoyer and Meadow, 2010; Wright,
2010) with regard to the pottery styles (Supporting Information
S1). Accordingly, Stages I (the earliest settlement level) and II
are assigned as Pre‐ to Early Harappan and transitional Early to
Mature Harappan period, respectively. Together these two
stages (I&II) were designated by Bisht (2015) as a local
Dholavira culture and suggest an in situ nucleation of a much
advanced Harappan settlement that ensued during the next
millennium. Stages III (the thickest settlement deposit) to VII
span the Late–Early Harappan and Early–Late/post‐urban
Harappan (?) periods.
The most noticeable feature of Fig. 5 is that after the
Pre‐Harappan period the settlement expanded very rapidly
from Stage II until the middle part of Stage IV (the vertical
blue bar in Fig. 5) or Early to mid‐Mature Harappan period,
i.e. up to ~4500 years BP, with continuous addition of new
architectural elements. During this period, ~8.5 m of the
settlement mound accumulated over a period of
~1000 years. From the mid‐Mature Harappan (middle of
Stage IV) onward, the expansion slowed down or even
ceased until ~4300 years BP (brown bar). Between ~4300 and
~4000 years BP (late part of Stages IV–VI) there was an abrupt
decline and near collapse of the settlement with only ~3 m of
material deposited over a period of ~700 years (pink bar).
Stage V and VI deposits are much thinner and urban decline
is manifested by degeneration of architecture, craftsmanship,
material culture and deteriorating hydrological condition
(see Supporting Information S1). A brief desertion (hiatus)
occurred after Stage VI (Table 1). During Stage VII the city
had disappeared, along with the classical Harappan ele-
ments and what remained bore no resemblance to the
Harappan culture (post‐Harappan?). In a sense, it was an
attempt to resettle at Dholavira during Stage VII but in a very
basic (rural) way and with a culture that was disconnected
from its predecessors. This was followed by final desertion of
the site. Taken together, the radiocarbon ages suggest that
the settlement at Dholavira existed over ~1700 years, starting
at ~5500 years BP and continuing at least up to ~3800 a BP.

Figure 5. Lithologs of three trenches (58 × 2, 58 × 3 and trench 57) within the Castle at Dholavira (redrawn after Singh, 1996; Bisht, 2015) and the
spatial correlation of the seven stages along with the median AMS radiocarbon dates and calibrated age ranges. Note the rapid growth and expansion
of the settlement from Stage II to the middle part of Stage IV (Early to middle part of Mature Harappan), cessation of expansion from the later part of
Stage IV (Late Mature Harappan), abrupt decline during Stages V and VI, and eventual desertion after Stage VI (Late Mature Harappan to the
beginning of the Late or post‐urban Harappan). The decline and desertion occur at ~4300–4000 years BP, coinciding with the beginning of the newly
proposed Meghalayan Stage. [Color figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]

Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Quaternary Sci., 1–14 (2019)
6 JOURNAL OF QUATERNARY SCIENCE

In the following section, we investigate a possible climate 1000*lnαaragonite‐water = 17.88*(1000/T) – 31.14

connection for the Harappan decline at Dholavira.
Climate reconstruction
For climate reconstruction, we use the high‐resolution sclerochro-
nological δ18O–δ13C records of two archaeological T. palustris
mollusc shells, having median ages 4709 years BP (Early to Early
Mature Harappan; 2σ range 4850–4526 years BP) and 4300 years
BP (Mid‐ to Late Mature Harappan; range 4431–4103 years BP;
Table S4). T. palustris (a snail with aragonitic carbonate shell), also
known as mud creeper or mudwhelk, is found on the surface of
muddy substrates of mangrove forests in tidal estuaries or deltas
with a large salinity tolerance from 15 to 35‰ (Pape et al., 2008;
Hogarth, 2015). While juvenile T. palustris prefer a mud
microhabitat, adults preferentially grow under the water at high
tide (Fratini et al., 2004). No T. palustris is found at present near
Dholavira. The nearest place where it occurs is the Gulf of
Kachchh or Kori creek mangroves (~150 km distance; Fig. 1).
Modern shell analysis
To confirm the climatic interpretation, δ18O and δ13C values
were obtained from various growth rings of a modern
T. palustris shell from Dholavira. Details of modern hydro-
graphy of the Gulf of Kachchh (available from https://www.
esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html;
Chakraborty and Ramesh, 1998; Singh et al., 2010; Desh-
pande et al., 2013) and predicted equilibrium aragonite δ18O
values of a shell grown in it are shown in Table S5. The Gulf
water δ18O is similar to the Arabian Sea, having minor
seasonal amplitude with little change in salinity due to the
absence of any major river. The δ18Ocarbonate of mollusc shells
growing in a water body is determined by the δ18O value of
the water and its temperature (Leng and Lewis, 2016). To test if
the δ18O periodicity in the modern shell reflects the seasonal
variation accurately, we used the above‐mentioned sources of
modern temperature and water δ18O to calculate the δ18O
values of aragonite precipitating in equilibrium following the
relationship given by Kim et al. (2007):
where
1000*lnαaragonite‐water = δ18Oaragonite – δ18Owater
The modern hydrographic parameters and measured δ18O
variation of the modern T. palustris are plotted as a function
of time in Fig. 6(a–c). The predicted seasonal δ18Oaragonite
values are also plotted in Fig. 6(d) (green envelope)
superimposed on one of the δ18O cycles of the modern
shell. Both the predicted values and the amplitude of
variation (~1.76‰) are quite close to those of the modern
T. palustris and suggest that they can be safely used for
reconstructing past climatic variation at this location,
especially seasonality.
That the seasonality record is preserved in the modern shell
is also supported by the co‐variance between the δ18O and
δ13C values within its shell. The plot of δ13C variation in the
modern shell (Fig. 6e) shows that the depletion in 13C occurs
during the pre‐monsoon and monsoon time when water
temperature is higher, causing a depletion in 18O due to
temperature‐dependent fractionation (Fig. 6c–e). Conversely,
both δ18O and δ13C values are higher during the non‐monsoon
and winter. The δ13C values in aragonitic shell material of
aquatic gastropods are controlled by either metabolic carbon
or dissolved inorganic carbon (ΣCO2 or DIC) of the water in
which the shell grows (Shanahan et al., 2005). In general, most
of the gastropods incorporate metabolic carbon of no more
than 10% (McConnaughey et al., 1997). Recent radiocarbon
measurements from the Gulf of Oman (western Arabian
Sea) show that modern T. palustris faithfully records the 14C
reservoir age of the mangrove water, indicating a predomi-
nance of DIC δ13C in their shells (Lindauer et al., 2017). The
δ13C values of DIC in the mangrove water, in turn, are
controlled by two major factors, namely photosynthesis and
δ13C of the river water or ground water flowing into the basin.
In closed basins, evaporation preferentially removes H216O
and 12CO2 via air–water exchange, thereby causing simulta-
neous enrichment in both 18O and 13C (Li and Ku, 1997). In
the present case, the contribution from river water or ground
water is negligible in the modern hyper‐arid climate of
the GRK. Moreover, the Gulf is a tide‐dominated estuary

Figure 6. (a,b) Modern seasonal surface temperature and water δ18O variation in the Gulf of Kachchh. (c–e) Seasonal intrashell δ18O variation in modern
Terebralia. palustris, Gulf of Kachchh, seasonal predicted equilibrium aragonite δ18O variation, and δ13C variation in modern T. palustris. (f) Early to Mature
Harappan (4709 years BP) T. palustris from Dholavira analysed for isotopes. (g,h) Seasonal intrashell δ18O and δ13C variation. (i) Calculated water δ18O for the
Early to Mature Harappan period. (j,k) Seasonal intrashell δ18O variation in Late Mature Harappan (4300 years BP) T. palustris and fish otolith and calculated
water δ18O for the Late Mature Harappan period. [Color figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]

Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Quaternary Sci., 1–14 (2019)
 COLLAPSE OF HARAPPAN SETTLEMENT OF DHOLAVIRA IN MEGHALAYAN AGE DROUGHT 7

(Vethamony et al., 2007) and isotopic enrichment associated
with evaporation can be neglected. It therefore follows that
seasonal change in the δ13C DIC of Gulf water must be linked
mainly to a change in biological productivity or photosynth-
esis. Higher biological productivity causes an enrichment in
DIC δ13C while a reduced productivity has the opposite effect
(Henderson et al., 2003; Li et al., 2012). Limited measurement
of chlorophyll a (Chl a) and primary productivity in the Gulf of
Kachchh shows lower productivity during the monsoon
compared to non‐monsoon or winter season. This has been
explained by increased concentration in total suspended solids
(TSS) and ensuing turbidity by strong monsoonal tidal currents.
This reverses during the post‐monsoon and winter period
when nutrient availability and utilization are higher (Shirodkar
et al., 2010). The above suggest that the seasonal variation in
δ13C of modern T. palustris aragonite is a reflection of the
seasonal variation in productivity in the Gulf. This variation is
positively correlated with the change in δ18O caused by
seasonal change in temperature.
Supporting evidence from Ganges and other areas
To further strengthen the climatic interpretation based on
isotopic fingerprinting, mollusc shells, both modern and
archaeological, from different regions and sites including
Dholavira, were analysed (Table S5e). These show, for
example, that the δ18O (PDB) value of T. palustris from the
monsoon‐fed Ganges Delta mangrove is −11.5‰, correspond-
ing to a water δ18O (VSMOW) value of about −10‰ (Sengupta
and Sarkar, 2006; Samanta et al., 2015). The δ18O values of
the marine aragonitic gastropod shell T. pyrum from the
Mature Harappan period of Dholavira and two other archae-
ological sites, namely Kuntasi and Khirsara (Fig. 1; Table S5e),
by contrast, exhibit much enriched water values (0.7–1.79‰).
These values are consistent with the mean δ18O values of
0.86 ± 0.2‰ measured for coastal Arabian Sea water (Singh
et al., 2010; Deshpande et al., 2013). The range of these shell
aragonite δ18O values adds to the confidence that their
isotopic compositions, both modern and archaeological, do
faithfully record the climatic signal.
of water δ18O using the above‐mentioned relationship of
Kim et al. (2007; Table S5c). The derived δ18Owater values
(Fig. 6i) vary from a mean maximum of ~−3.2‰ to a minimum
of ~−6.3‰. It is interesting to note that they are much depleted
compared to the δ18O values of modern Gulf water (0.6 to
~1‰). In addition, the total seasonal range in the water δ18O of
the Harappan period is much larger (~3‰) than the modern
range (only ~0.4‰). We attribute such depleted oxygen
isotope compositions through the seasons to precipitation of
aragonite shell in water of much lower salinity in the
contemporary Harappan mangrove hosting the T. palustris.
This, in turn, implies considerably higher freshwater influx
than today. A simple mass balance calculation (Supporting
Information S6) suggests that to obtain the observed variation
in the gastropod δ18O, a seasonally varying riverine input from
−12.4‰ (highly depleted) to −5.1‰ (enriched) must be mixed
with the mangrove saline water (Fig. 7).
Source of depleted δ18Ow
Indian rivers are largely fed by summer monsoonal rain. It
has been firmly established that highly depleted δ18O values
(<−12‰) are not found in either the monsoonal rain or major
rivers of peninsular India (Kumar et al., 2010). Normally,
depleted rainwaters can be generated by either the continental
effect or the amount effect during the rain‐forming processes
(Yurtsever and Gat, 1981; Sengupta and Sarkar, 2006).
However, it is known that the continental effect associated
with the Indian monsoon is minor (~−5‰; Sengupta and
Sarkar, 2006; Midhun et al., 2018) and can be discounted. The
other way of depleting the rain and consequently the river
water is to increase the amount of rainfall at any particular
region because an increase in 100 mm of rainfall may result in
a decrease in δ18O by 1.5‰ (amount effect; Yurtsever and Gat,
1981; Rozanski et al., 1993). The modern mean annual rainfall
isohyets show that currently the GRK or Dholavira region falls

Climate and fluvial landscape of GRK during the

Harappan period
Intrashell δ18O and δ13C variations of the 4709‐year‐old T.
palustris from Dholavira (Fig. 6f) are plotted in Fig. 6(g,h),
revealing seasonal/annual changes. The mean amplitude of
the seasonal δ18O cycle (~3.2‰) is considerably higher than
that of the modern T. palustris (~1.9‰) or calculated
amplitude of δ18Oaragonite (~1.76‰), shown above. Due to
the temperature dependence of equilibrium isotopic fractio-
nation, a 1°C increase in temperature causes a 0.25‰
decrease in δ18Ocarbonate (Craig, 1965). If the amplitude of
3.2‰ is to be explained by a change in the water
temperature, it would require an abnormally large seasonal
temperature change of ~12.8 °C at ~4709 years BP. Analyses
of planktonic foraminiferal isotope and Mg/Ca ratios indicate
that the annual mean and seasonal sea surface temperature in
the Arabian Sea changed very little over the past 5000 years
Figure 7. Possible ranges of river water δ18O input in the GRK during
(Naidu and Malmgren, 2005; Ganssen et al., 2011; Böll et al.,
the Harappan period calculated for various seawater–river water
2015). We therefore conclude that the fossil T. palustris mixing ratios (Supporting Information S6). River water salinity, mean
aragonite δ18O cycle cannot be explained by temperature Gulf water salinity and mean Gulf water δ18O are assumed as 0‰,
change. Instead, we ascribe the change in δ18Ocarbonate to a 36‰ and 0.8‰, respectively. The grey box represents the possible
change in the water δ18O. limits of river water δ18O based on the salinity tolerance range for T.
palustris and Harappan period water δ18O calculated from the
To derive the Harappan water δ18O, we use the modern aragonitic carbonate. Monsoon‐like river water δ18O (~−5‰) or a
temperature cycle and the measured aragonite δ18O of depleted Indus‐like water (~−12‰) mixed with normal seawater water
archaeological T. palustris and calculate the possible range can produce minimum sustainable salinity for T. palustris (see text).

Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Quaternary Sci., 1–14 (2019)
8 JOURNAL OF QUATERNARY SCIENCE
in the hyper‐arid climate zone with 200–400 mm annual
rainfall (mean δ18OAhmedabad rain = ~−3‰, Deshpande et al.,
2010), and hence, to generate water of −5 to −12‰ would
require several hundred millimetres increase in rainfall at this
location either by the Bay of Bengal (BOB) or Arabian Sea
branch of the monsoon (Fig. 1b). This is quite unlikely given
the subcontinent‐scale observation of diminishing rainfall from
7000 years BP (mid‐Holocene) onward provided by various
climate proxies (Sarkar et al., 2016, and references therein).
More importantly, however, recent high‐resolution δ18O
measurements of monsoonal precipitation at multiple stations
across India clearly suggest that, contrary to normal belief,
there is a negligible contribution of the amount effect in Indian
monsoonal rain (Eastoe and Dettman, 2016; Midhun et al.,
2018). If so, the only plausible source(s) of depleted water can
be the extra‐peninsular rivers and their tributaries of the
Himalayan region where glacial meltwater can contribute to
generate a river water δ18O of −12‰ (Lone et al., 2017; Laskar
et al., 2018). Therefore, we propose that the highly negative
δ18O values required to explain the Dholavira T. palustris
record were due to inputs from such rivers to the Gulf water of
the mangrove hosting the gastropods.
At present, only two ephemeral rivers, the Nara in the west
and the Luni in the east, debouch into the GRK (Fig. 1). These
channels lie on the periphery of the Thar Desert where no
fluvial activity exists today. The Luni originates in the Aravalli
mountain range and is fed by monsoonal precipitation only.
The Nara, by contrast, flows nearly parallel to the east of the
River Indus and originates in the uplands of Pakistan. The
channel of Nara the has been conjectured to be the remnant of
an ancient Vedic river ‘Saraswati’ that flowed further eastward
than today through connected channels of the near‐dried
present day Ghaggar–Hakra rivers (Fig. 1; Sankaran, 1999;
Danino, 2010). The Nara was dammed upstream around
1768 AD and is currently dry, before which it had moderate
hydrological discharge (Burnes, 1835; Wynne, 1872). Sedi-
mentological and geomorphological evidence suggests con-
siderable cross flow input from the Indus to Nara especially
during flood events only centuries ago (Khan, 1996; East et al.,
2015). A comprehensive isotope hydrological investigation of
Indus water shows that its δ18O values range from −15‰ in the
upper reaches of the Himalayas to −9‰ in the lower reaches
over the deltaic plains. The mean δ18O value of the waters
from the middle to lower reaches of the Indus (closer to Nara
and ~400 km north‐west of Dholavira) is −11.3 ± 1.2‰ (Karim
and Veizer, 2002). Such depleted values even in the lower
reaches have been explained by a mixture of glacial meltwater
contribution at its Himalayan headwater source and monsoo-
nal water. The mean Indus δ18O value (−11.3 ± 1.2‰) is
surprisingly close to the minimum water δ18O value (−12.4‰)
estimated above by mass balance for the Early to Mature
Harappan time. We infer that isotopically depleted water
through river channel(s), possibly connected to the Indus
course, discharged water into the GRK during the Early to
Mature Harappan period. The −12‰ end‐member possibly
represents the summer/monsoon season when Indus‐like
(Fig. 7) riverine contribution was highest and that, after mixing
with the saline water, produced a resultant δ18O of −6.3‰ in
the Gulf (Fig. 6i).
Source of enriched δ18Ow
The above discussion suggests that the calculated enriched
end‐member of −5.1‰ must be representing winter or non‐
monsoon season water when the contributions from the rivers
were probably low. The source of this water, however, remains
unclear. The Indus or its distributaries do not have such values
Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
in winter. The monsoonal rains have annual weighted δ18O
values of between −6 and −5‰ (Sengupta and Sarkar, 2006;
Deshpande et al., 2010; Midhun et al., 2018). River water
δ18O data for the Kachchh or adjoining Rajasthan are not
available. However, the limited data suggest similar δ18O
values (around −5‰) in rain and lake waters of the Sambhar,
proximal to the Luni river that debouches into the eastern GRK
(Yadav, 1997). Ground waters in the eastern periphery of the
GRK also have typical δ18O values of −4 to −5‰ (R. D.
Deshpande, pers. comm.). These ground waters represent
recharges by the monsoon rainwaters of previous years. As
discussed, although the monsoon started to decline from
7000 years BP onward, its intensity was still higher during the
mid‐Holocene than the late Holocene or present (Berkelham-
mer et al., 2012; Dixit et al., 2014). It is possible that the
monsoon front from the south‐east (BOB branch) and south‐
west (Arabian Sea branch) during this period penetrated
deeper into the Kachchh, providing rain through the local
stream network including rivers such as the Luni and Banas.
Archaeological evidence and architectural elements of water
management at Dholavira do suggest water flow during the
monsoon period through the two small rivers Manhar and
Mansar over which the Dholavirans constructed dams for
water storage in a series of reservoirs. Monsoonal water
possibly recharged the local groundwater which eventually
provided the base flow through these local stream networks
during non‐monsoon/winter time. This contributed the en-
riched end‐member input (Fig. 7) of −5.1‰ to saline water
around Dholavira to generate a mangrove water value of −3‰
as per our calculations (Supporting Information). Alternatively,
evaporative enrichment of GRK water formed by mixing of
winter base flow of the Indus‐like rivers (~20 times less than
that of monsoon at present with mean δ18O ~ −10.5‰) and
northerly flowing Luni‐like rivers (−5‰) in non‐monsoon
months can produce a δ18Ow of about −3‰. Employing the
evaporative enrichment model (Craig and Gordon, 1965;
Yadav, 1997), which assumes a relative humidity of 0.4 and
background vapour as −12‰, an initial water of −6.5‰
(Fig. 6i) will require ~12% evaporation of the standing water
body in the GRK to produce water of −3‰ during the non‐
monsoon months (Supporting Information S7, Fig.S7). It is
interesting to note that, in recent times, the large inland lake of
Nal Sarovar (about 200 km2; ~225 km from Dholavira) has
been subject to such evaporation in winter, enriching the
source water δ18O of −4.5‰ to +4‰ (Luz and Barkan, 2010).
Admittedly, the GRK was not entirely isolated like the Nal
Sarovar but the connection to the sea during Harappan times
could only have been through the Kori creek.
Carbon isotope, productivity, mangroves and
rivers around Dholavira
Because T. palustris can only grow in saline or brackish water,
the above inference also demands the presence of saline water
in the mangroves from where these shells were collected by
the Dholavirans. That the GRK contained saline to brackish
water is also attested to by intrashell δ13C variation of T.
palustris (Fig. 6h). The δ13C values seasonally covary with the
δ18O values in the same manner as found in the modern T.
palustris from the Gulf of Kachchh (Fig. 6c,e). Because the
δ18O analysis above indicates the presence of high riverine
fluxes, part of this variability might be attributed to the
seasonal change in terrestrial carbon brought by the river. The
modern seasonal δ13C in the river Indus, however, shows a
maximum change of only 2‰ (Karim and Veizer, 2000)
compared to ~3.5‰ observed in the fossil shell. The excess
δ13C change in the fossil can therefore only be explained by a
J. Quaternary Sci., 1–14 (2019)
 COLLAPSE OF HARAPPAN SETTLEMENT OF DHOLAVIRA IN MEGHALAYAN AGE DROUGHT
seasonal change in productivity (less in monsoon and high in
winter/non‐monsoon) that affected the carbon pool over and
above the river‐derived carbon.
As mentioned earlier, excavation at Dholavira yielded
large numbers of T. palustris shells that are cut and consumed
as food along with another mangrove gastropod species,
Telescopium telescopium (Fig. 4e). The number of shells of
both species was higher during the Early and Mature Harappan
period but drastically decreased from Stage V onward (i.e.
from the late Mature to Late Harappan period; Bisht, 2015).
Not only at Dholavira, T. palustris was a common ubiquitous
food source at many nearby settlements during the Bronze Age
where shell middens have been found, such as at Balakot and
Allahdino along the Balochistan and Sind coast of Pakistan
(Biagi et al., 2013). A T. palustris shell midden has also been
unearthed from the Bronze Age settlements of Abu Dhabi and
many other sites in SE Arabia (Carter, 1997). In India, these
species are confined today to the mangroves of either the Gulf
of Kachchh or Kori creek, but it is unlikely that regular
collection of these edible shellfish was made at these distant
sites and brought for consumption to Dholavira, a settlement
located ~150 km inland (Fig. 1). It is also plausible that during
the Harappan time the Rann surface was periodically
inundated by seawater and a mangrove ecosystem grew
nearby that supported the growth of T. palustris. The palaeosea
level cannot be determined accurately at GRK, but qualitative
evidence of a sea level marginally higher than at present in the
GRK at ~5000 years BP has been provided by Chamyal et al.
(2003) and Tyagi et al. (2012). Accounts of an inundated tidal‐
flat‐like environment are also recorded in historical maps and
texts (Frere, 1870; Sivewright, 1907; Rajendran and Rajendran,
2001). On the western coast of the Arabian Sea (Persian Gulf
region), a highstand of > 1 m above current sea level during
the period 5300–4500 years BP has been recorded that fell
back to the current level after ~1500 years BP (Lokier et al.,
2015). Likewise, marine transgression and formation of an
extensive mangrove front along with several Neolithic settle-
ments have been recorded from the coast of Oman and
Makran (Pakistan) between ~5000 and 3000 years BP, with a
peak in mangrove formation between 4700 and 4400 years BP.
These mangroves were replete with typical saline plants such
as Avicennia, and large populations of both Terebralia
palustris and Telescopium telescopium. Archaeological settle-
ments also show evidence of maximum exploitation of these
shellfish in the coastal regions during the mid‐Holocene
(Berger et al., 2013; Biagi et al., 2013) and at a time that was
chronologically contemporaneous to Dholavira. Post‐glacial
transgression probably inundated the shallow coastal plains
and tidal flats in the eastern Arabian Sea through the
palaeoseaways of either Kori creek or Gulf of Kachchh
(Fig. 1b).
Such an inward expanded Gulf, compared to present,
possibly received water through the rivers draining into the
GRK around its periphery. Several studies indicate that during
the mid‐Holocene the Indus and its distributaries were flowing
through a more easterly course along with its expanded delta
system within the eastern GRK (Giosan et al., 2006; Clift et al.,
2012; Khonde et al., 2017). Provenance analysis (trace
element and Sr–Nd isotope) of bedload sediments along the
palaeochannels in the GRK suggests that sub‐Himalayan
sediments were supplied to the GRK possibly through channels
of the Ghaggar, Hakra, and the Nara rivers which were still
active until 3000 years BP (Giosan et al., 2012; Chatterjee and
Ray, 2017; Khonde et al., 2017). Likewise, the illite record
from suspended sediments also indicates continued sediment
supply until ~3000 years BP either through the Indus (via
longshore transport through Kori creek) or its distributaries
Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
9
(Rao and Rao, 1995; Tyagi et al., 2012). Historical evidence
and environmental proxies from sediments of the Nara
riverbed also indicate the existence of a moderately active
channel during the mid‐Holocene (Burnes, 1835; Ngangom
et al., 2017). High‐resolution remote sensing investigation
across the Thar Desert had previously suggested an intricate
network of palaeochannels (Saraswati?) below the dune field
eventually meeting the northern fringe of the GRK west of
Nagarparkar at the India–Pakistan border (Fig. 1b; Gupta
et al., 2011).
Hydrological and climatic significance of the
stable isotope record
The above stable isotope discussion can be summarized as
follows. The carbon and oxygen stable isotope variation
measured in a few mollusc shells retrieved from Dholavira
remains show that there was strong seasonality in the water
composition. Such seasonality is absent or diminished in the
Gulf water today. Based on analysis of the amplitude and
covariation between δ13C and δ18O values, it appears that
there was a major supply of fresh water through one or two
prominent rivers debouching into the Gulf. These rivers
obtained their waters from two sources: a significant compo-
nent of glacial melt and contribution from summer monsoon
rains. The relative proportion of these two sources controlled
the seasonality of the isotopes. Proving the existence of such
rivers during Harappan times that supplied much‐needed
freshwater for the city of Dholavira is the moot point of the
isotope study. The fact that such rivers either do not exist or
have only ephemeral existence in modern times, indicates that
a massive drought set in with drying up of the water supply and
possibly suggests a major shift of the monsoon belt towards
the east.
Apocalypse Dholavira and the abrupt urban
decline
Drying up of the GRK, along with retreat of both seawater and
river courses, occurred somewhere between the Middle
Holocene (~4700 years BP) and terminal Holocene period. This
is evident when the δ18O record of the 4300‐year‐old
T. palustris is compared with that of the 4709‐year‐old shell
(Table S5d; Fig. 6j). As the shell is partially broken, only one
seasonal cycle is preserved. Of most note is a drastically
reduced δ18O amplitude (seasonality) in the younger shell
compared to the 4709‐year‐old shell. The absolute δ18O values
in the younger shell are also enriched (−2.9 to −1.2‰). The
corresponding calculated water δ18O values range from −1.2 to
+0.7‰, much closer to the water of the modern arid Gulf. In
Fig. 6(k) a published high‐resolution δ18O record of another
4300‐year‐old fish otolith from the Bagasra Harappan site
(mouth of Gulf of Kachchh; Fig. 1b) is replotted (Amekawa
et al., 2016). The otolith seasonal amplitude and the δ18O
values are quite similar to those of the 4300‐year‐old
T. palustris. Together these two records suggest strongly that
the isotopically depleted river water input, prevalent during the
Early to Mature Harappan (4709 years BP) mangrove, was
significantly reduced by the Late Mature Harappan period (4300
years BP). Consequently, the ambient water of the GRK became
isotopically enriched throughout the year. We propose that at
4300 years BP an abrupt shift towards aridity occurred that
nearly dried up the river channels (with significantly lower
fluvial discharge). Figure 5 shows the ranges of AMS dates and
the stages or Harappan periods at Dholavira plotted against the
latest stratigraphic subdivisions of the Holocene approved by
the ICS (Walker et al., 2019a, b). The rapid urban growth of
J. Quaternary Sci., 1–14 (2019)
10 JOURNAL OF QUATERNARY SCIENCE
Dholavira occurred during the Late Northgrippian Stage from
~5500 to ~4300 years BP. The abrupt decline of the settlement
occurred between 4300 and 4000 years BP, coinciding with the
beginning of the newly proposed Meghalayan Stage. The
settlement eventually was abandoned after ~3800 years BP.
Because the onset of the Meghalayan Stage is marked by a
centennial‐scale global drought, it is tempting to speculate that
the settlement of Dholavira too fell victim to this prolonged
drought, which caused a dramatic decrease in fluvial discharge,
extreme water scarcity and eventually led to desertion. The
fluvial landscape of the GRK thus changed from a monsoon and
Indus‐like river‐dominated network to a dry arid ecosystem
within a very short timespan.
To determine whether the decline of Dholavira is unique or
is a manifestation of regional climate change, the temporal
range of the periods and frequency of radiocarbon dates (both
conventional and AMS) of the major Harappan settlements in
India including those from Kachchh and Saurashtra (e.g.
Kalibangan, Rakhigarhi, Prabhas Patan, Lothal, Khirsara,
Kanmer, Surkotada, Rojdi, Loteswar, Padri as well as
Dholavira) are plotted in Fig. 8. At several sites the number
of dates is insufficient to infer centennial‐scale cultural
transitions. Nevertheless, the data show that, overall, these
sites grew during the Early to Mature Harappan period and
started to decline at the onset of the Meghalayan Stage, just
like Dholavira, with only a few surviving into the Late
Harappan period. The decline seems to be universal, near‐
contemporaneous and must be linked to a common cause,
probably the onset of aridification associated with the 4.2‐ka
climatic event that marks the onset of the Meghalayan Stage.
Across the globe, a large number of sites have now been
documented that record the 4.2‐ka drought event especially in
the low latitudes (Cullen et al., 2000; Thompson et al., 2002;
Arz et al., 2006; Drysdale et al., 2006; Walker et al., 2012).
Figure 9 presents a temporal correlation of the 4.2‐ka event
(obtained from diverse proxy data) between different sites in
Africa, the Middle East, and southern and eastern Asia, plotted
against the stable isotope record from the Meghalayan GSSP at
Mawmluh Cave, NE India, which shows an 18O enrichment of
~2‰ in speleothem cave carbonate between 4300 and
4100 years BP (Fig. 9a). Also shown are the correlated events
at Dholavira (Fig. 9i). The 4.2‐ka event is marked, for example,
by a sudden increase in the aeolian (detrital) dolomite and shift
in foraminiferal δ18O towards an enriched value in ocean cores
from the Gulf of Oman (Fig. 9b) and Shaban deep, Red Sea
(Fig. 9c), respectively, suggesting aridity (Cullen et al., 2000;
Figure 8. Temporal range of the periods and frequency of radiocarbon dates (both conventional and AMS) of the major Harappan settlements of
Kachchh and Saurashtra; also shown are data from Rakhigarhi, Cholistan, for comparison; n = number of samples dated. Note the near‐synchronous
Harappan decline at all the sites just at the onset of or immediately after the Meghalayan stage. Data sources: Kalibangan, Prabhas Patan, Lothal,
Surkotada, Rojdi (Brunswig, 1975; Herman, 1996), Rakhigarhi (Nath et al., 2014; Vahia et al., 2016), Khirsara, Kanmer (Pokharia et al., 2011, 2017),
Loteswar, Padri (Possehl, 1993).s
Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Arz et al., 2006). Both these sites are proximal to the Old World
Mesopotamian civilization and the abrupt climate shift has been
linked to its decline. The Mesopotamian archaeological site at
Tell Lelian on the Habur plain of Syria records five major phases
starting from ~5000 to ~3800 years BP (Fig. 9h). The penultimate
stage of phase II ranges from 4400 to 4000 years BP and
coincides with an occupational hiatus in its upper part that
continues until ~3800 years BP. The youngest phase I reappears
after the hiatus but is a thin settlement/archaeological record
and followed by complete desertion of the site (Weiss et al.,
1993). The Habur hiatus is contemporary to the transition of the
Mature to Late Harappan phase and is similar to the Dholavira
in terms of both cultural evolution and chronology. A high‐
resolution climate record from a freshwater lake of Kotla Dahar,
Haryana, India (Fig. 9d), also shows an abrupt enrichment in
gastropod δ18O at ~4200 years BP and is linked to the urban
Harappan decline in Cholistan (Dixit et al., 2014). Elsewhere,
on the Tibetan Plateau, a ~3‰ enrichment in carbon isotope
composition (δ13C) of cellulose is observed at ~4200 years BP in
the Hongyuan peat bog record and was interpreted as indicative
of an abrupt aridification event (Fig. 9e; Hong et al., 2003). The
event can be correlated with the ~300‐year occupational hiatus
between the Neolithic phase of the Yangtze Delta and the
younger renewed settlement of the Maqiao dynasty that
followed (Stanley et al., 1999). While a Neolithic decline at
4.2 ka is observed at several archaeological sites along the
Yangtze and Yellow River Basins, of particular interest is the
revival of pastoralism‐dominated cultures that replaced more
advanced agricultural‐based cultures after the 4.2‐ka event in
several parts of northern China. This is quite similar to the last
Stage VII (Late Harappan) of Dholavira where the settlers
returned after the desertion of 4300–4100 years BP but with no
urban features, and with primitive cultural elements. An abrupt
increase in dust concentration at ~4100 years BP in the ice core
record from Mount Kilimanjaro, Africa (Fig. 9f), has also been
cited as the cause of the abrupt collapse of the Egyptian Old
Kingdom at the same time (Thompson et al., 2002; Bronk
Ramsey et al., 2010; Walker et al., 2012, 2019a). Nearer
Dholavira, sedimentological evidence from the Thar Desert
suggests westward expansion of the desert dune field during the
Late Holocene (after ~4000 years BP) overlying the older fluvial
sediments that were deposited during the Holocene climate
optimum (Clift et al., 2008; Alizai et al., 2011; Giosan et al.,
2012; East et al., 2015; Durcan et al., 2017).
We therefore postulate that the Harappan settlement at
Dholavira that thrived from 5500 years BP abruptly declined
J. Quaternary Sci., 1–14 (2019)
 COLLAPSE OF HARAPPAN SETTLEMENT OF DHOLAVIRA IN MEGHALAYAN AGE DROUGHT 11

Figure 9. (a) Middle to Late Holocene monsoon record from cave carbonate showing the 4.2‐ka Meghalayan Stage drought event from the global
stratotype section at Mawmluh Cave, NE India, and its temporal correlation (grey horizontal bar) with diverse proxy records obtained at different
locations: (b) aeolian dolomite percentage in an ocean core, Gulf of Oman (Cullen et al., 2000); (c) δ18O of foraminiferal carbonate from the Shaban
Deep, Red Sea (Arz et al., 2006); (d) δ18O of Melanoides gastropod from Kotla Dahar lake, Rajasthan (Dixit et al., 2014); (e) δ13C cellulose of the
Hongyuan peat bog record, Tibetan Plateau, China (Hong et al., 2003); and (f) dust concentration from Kilimanjaro ice core (Thompson et al., 2002).
(g) 20°N summer period solar insolation is shown for comparison with the climate record (Maher and Hu, 2006); note that solar insolation was
higher than today during the Early to Mature Harappan (~5200–3900 years BP). The abrupt Meghalayan drought is superimposed on a monotonically
declining monsoon from ~7000 years BP onward. (h) Abrupt decline and desertion (hiatus) took place in the rain‐fed agricultural civilization of Habur
plain, Syria, in northern Mesopotamia (Weiss et al., 1993) immediately after the Meghalayan Stage, almost coeval with the decline of the Neolithic
phase of the Yangtze Delta, China (Stanley et al., 1999). and the Old Kingdom of Egypt (Bronk Ramsey et al., 2010). (i) The prolific Mature Harappan
civilization at Dholavira also ceased to expand, declined and was then deserted during or immediately after the Meghalayan Stage 4.2‐ka drought
event.

between 4300 and 4000 years BP most likely in response to a
global mega‐drought at the onset of the Meghalayan Stage that
was spread over a few centuries, an event that led to the
decline of several other contemporary urban civilizations on
different continents. At the onset of the Late Harappan period
(~3900 years BP), Dholavirans made an attempt to return to the
site, but were unable to cope with increasing aridity and lack
of water resources and hence the site was completely
abandoned. Indeed, Dholavira presents a classic case for
understanding how climate change can increase future
drought risk across much of the subtropics and mid‐latitudes
as predicted by the IPCC working group (Cook et al., 2018).3
(like Nara), with seawater that periodically inundated the GRK
being reflected in depleted shell δ18O. Evaporation of this
semi‐enclosed water body during the non‐monsoon months
coupled with reduced riverine input (δ18O ~ −5‰) enriched
the δ18O of water and this is clearly recorded in the shell
carbonates.
Expansion of the city slowed during the Late Mature
Harappan (~4300 years BP or later part of Stage IV) with near
complete urban decline in the early part of the Late Harappan
period (Stages V and VI). The change in the humid fluvial
landscape was probably due to a catastrophic drought that
drove the final collapse of the settlement at the onset of the
Meghalayan Stage (~4300–4100 years BP).

Conclusions Supporting information

Radiocarbon dating of molluscan/otolith and archaeological
shell bangle carbonates from seven (I–VII) cultural stages of
Dholavira, GRK, Gujarat, suggest that occupation began
during the Pre‐Harappan period (~5500 years BP; Stage I) and
continued until the early part of the Late Harappan (at least up
to ~3800 years BP; Stage VII).
Under a favourable monsoonal climate, the settlement
expanded rapidly with continuous addition of new architectural
elements to the cityscape such as the Citadel, Bailey, and Lower
and Middle Town between Stage II and the middle of Stage IV
(i.e. from the Early to mid‐Mature Harappan period). Abundant
mangroves around the vast shallow swamp GRK sustained
populations of edible gastropods such as T. palustris which
provided an important food source for Dholavirans.
Oxygen isotope (δ18O) sclerochronology of Early Harappan
shells suggests seasonal mixing of a depleted (δ18O ~ −12‰)
water flow in summer/monsoon months through channels
such as the ancient Saraswati and/or Indus distributary channel
Additional supporting information may be found in the online
version of this article at the publisher's web‐site.
S1. Archaeology of Dholavira
Figure S2. (a) View of the trench along the northern
fortification of the Castle showing various stages; note the
very thick deposit of Stages III and IV, suggesting rapid growth
of the settlement and the very thin deposit during Stage V (for
details see text). (b) Reserved Slip ware potsherds, Stage I. (c)
Potsherds of painted potteries, and a reconstructed pot, Stage II
(after Bisht, 2015).
S3. Analytical protocol for AMS radiocarbon dating and
stable isotope analysis
Table S4. Radiocarbon chronology of Dholavira samples.
Table S5. (a) Intra‐shell δ18O and δ13C values of modern
shell of Terebralia palustris, Gulf of Kutch. (b) Monthly
temperature, δ18Owater and predicted δ18Oaragonite in Gulf of
Kutch. (c) Intra‐shell δ18O and δ13C values of archaeological
shell of T. palustris, Early to Mature Harappan, Dholavira and

Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Quaternary Sci., 1–14 (2019)
12 JOURNAL OF QUATERNARY SCIENCE
calculated contemporary δ18Owater, of GRK mangrove. (d)
Intra‐shell δ18O and δ13C values of archaeological shell of T.
palustris, Late Mature Harappan, Dholavira and calculated
contemporary δ18Owater, of GRK mangrove. (e) δ18O of open
ocean marine carbonate shells from Dholavira and other
Harappan sites and calculated δ18Owater.
S6. Mass balance calculation to identify the origin of
freshwater in the Dholavira mangrove.
S7. Evaporative enrichment model.
Figure S7. Model output for evaporative enrichment.
Acknowledgements. We thank Prof. Geoff Duller, Editor‐in‐Chief,
Prof. Mike Walker and two other anonymous reviewers for their
critical comments on the manuscript. Dholavira was excavated in the
1990s by R.S.B. and a large team of archaeologists under the aegis of
the Archaeological Survey of India (ASI). Ceramic studies were carried
out by R.S.B. and Y.S.R. A.D.M. thanks the Director General, ASI, for
giving necessary permission for studying the Dholavira shell materials
and using the archived photographs of pottery and other artefacts.
A.D.M. also thanks the Indian Council for Historical Research (ICHR)
for funding a project on Dholavira shell materials. We thank Dr V. N.
Prabhakar, Director, Exploration and excavation, ASI, for all his help
during the course of this study. Isotope data were generated in the
National Stable Isotope facility, IIT, Kharagpur, funded by the
Department of Science & Technology, New Delhi, and a Diamond
Jubilee Grant from IIT Kharagpur. Radiocarbon dates were generated
at the new AMS facility at the Physical Research Laboratory,
Ahmedabad. Archaeo‐zoological studies were carried out at the
Archaeo‐zoology laboratory, Deccan College, PGRI, Pune. S.K.B.
thanks IIT Kharagpur for an international visiting Professorship. The
isotopic work forms part of the PhD thesis of T.S. who thanks the
Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), New Delhi, for
granting a fellowship.
Abbreviations. AMS, accelerator mass spectrometry; BOB, Bay of
Bengal; DIC, dissolved inorganic carbon; GRK, Great Rann of
Kachchh; GSSP, Global Stratotype Section and Point; ICS, Interna-
tional Commission on Stratigraphy; IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change; IVC, Indus Valley Civilization; TL, thermolumines-
cence; TSS, Total Suspended Solids.
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