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Cohort Analysis
Cohort Analysis
Cohort Analysis
Pts
X0s =
Pt
Pts = X0s × Pt
Here we consider the base year as 2018. So for the City of Saline:
s
P t=0 = 343947, Pt=0 = 8744
8744
X0s =
343947
X0s = 0.0254
At t = 2028, P (t=2028) = 415606
Hence the estimated population of the City of Saline in is 2028 is:
s
P(t=2028) = X0s × P (t=2028)
s
P(t=2028) = 0.0254 × 415606
s
P(t=2028) ≈ 10556 (Answer)
• Growth-share Method:
The growth share method is based upon population growth rates for the smaller area’s population or
the sub-population. The method assumes that the observed population growth of the smaller area will be
constant over the projection period.
Assume:
Pt = Parent Population or total Population at time t
P t=b = Total population of the bigger or the parent area at an intermediate time t = b
s
Pt=b = Population of the smaller area at t = b
1
The formula for the projected population of the smaller area is:
s s
s s Pt=b − Pt=0
Pt = Pt=0 + × (Pt − P t=0 )
P t=b − P t=0
Where b is any year in between the base year and the prediction year.
In this case, the base year is 2010 and the year of prediction is 2028. So we consider 2018 as b here.
So substituting the corresponding values in the equation, we get:
s (9223 − 8744)
Pt = 8744 + × (415606 − 343947)
(365961 − 343947)
b = base year.