POLL REPORT:

SPECIAL REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

FOR FLORIDA HD-24

January 18, 2023

P: (929) 388-6585
E: info@victory-insights.com
W: victory-insights.com
: @VictoryPolling

Poll conducted January 10-11, 2023 via IVR and text

message among likely Republican Primary voters in
FL HD-24. Commissioned and conducted by Victory
Insights, not by any political candidate or committee.

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Table of Contents
1 Cover Sheet
2 Executive Summary
3 General Election Ballot
4 Favorability and Name ID
5 Tracking Trends: 2024 Presidential Primary
6 Contact Information

Executive Summary
After being indicted by the U.S. Department of Justice in early December, State
Representative Joe Harding resigned from his seat representing Florida’s 24 th district.
Soon after, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis set the date for a special election to fill the
Ocala-area seat. Six candidates qualified for the ballot: five Republicans and one write-in
candidate, whose filing caused the primary election in March to be closed to only
registered Republicans.
The five Republicans vying for the seat come from a variety of backgrounds. Three
hail from the political world: Charlie Stone is a former State Representative, Justin Albright
has served in a variety of local offices, and Ryan Chamberlain is a former congressional
candidate. The other two are political outsiders: Stephen Pyles is a pain management
physician, and Jose Juarez is a local businessman.
The special election has emerged as a focal point of Republican politics in Florida in
recent weeks, as the winner of the primary will be the de facto Representative-elect in the
solidly-red district. Last week, we decided to dig deeper into this important election by
conducting a mixed-mode survey of likely Republican Primary voters throughout Florida’s
24th State House District. The following report details our findings.
Perhaps our most important finding is that this race is wide open. All five candidates
received less than 15% of the vote each, and more than two thirds of voters remain
undecided. That being said, it appears that Albright (14.7%) and Chamberlain (11.2%) are
off to a slightly early start as the only two candidates to break into the double digits. Stone
benefits from some residual Name ID, but as of yet has failed to translate that into votes.
Juarez and Pyles, venturing into politics for the first time, have negligent support thus far.
Another rivalry gripping Florida Republicans is that between Governor Ron DeSantis
and Former President Donald Trump. If the candidates in this special election align
themselves with one over the other for the 2024 nomination, it could prove more harmful
than helpful, as their electorate is starkly split on the matter (DeSantis +0.9%). With the
special Republican Primary only a few short weeks away, candidates will need to choose
their words carefully if they hope to be Ocala’s next voice in Tallahassee.
Read on to learn more.

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General Election Ballot

With nearly 70% of the electorate still undecided, this race is winnable by any of the five
candidates. Albright and Chamberlain seem to have an early head start, but it wouldn’t
take much for the three other candidates in the low single digits to overtake either of them
for the lead. This race will come down to who runs the best campaign over the next seven
weeks.
100.0%

90.0%

80.0%

70.0% 67.8%

60.0%

50.0%

40.0%

30.0%

20.0%
14.7%
11.2%
10.0%

2.2% 2.2% 1.8%

0.0%
Undecided Albright Chamberlain Stone Juarez Pyles

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Candidate Favorability
Voters don’t have strong opinions about any of the five Republicans vying for the open
seat. No one is particularly disliked, as Albright’s 6% negativity ratings are the highest of
the pack. On the other hand, no one’s very well-liked, either. Former Rep. Stone garners
favorability ratings of 16%, followed by Albright and Chamberlain. Nevertheless, it’s clear
that no candidate is off to a massive head start over the others, nor is anyone
irredeemably behind.

Stone 16% 79% 5%

Albright 14% 80% 6%

Chamberlain 13% 83% 4%

Pyles 9% 88% 3%

Juarez 6% 90% 4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Positive Neutral/No Opinion Negative

Total Name ID
Stone is the most well-known candidate of the pack, although even his Name ID barely
breaks the 20% mark. All five candidates are generally unknown amongst the broader
electorate, and should spend the next few weeks working tirelessly to raise their Name ID.
50.0%

45.0%

40.0%

35.0%

30.0%

25.0%
19.9% 21.1%
20.0% 17.0%
15.0% 12.0%
10.0%
10.0%

5.0%

0.0%
Juarez Pyles Chamberlain Albright Stone

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2024 Presidential Primary Ballot: Trump vs. DeSantis

DeSantis and Trump are essentially tied for the 2024 Republican nomination in Florida’s
24th State House district. If the Republican Primary electorate were just five people, two
would support DeSantis, two would support Trump, and one would be undecided.
Candidates would be taking a gamble by publicly backing either of the 2024 presidential
hopefuls.
100.0%

90.0%

80.0%

70.0%

60.0%

50.0%

40.3% 39.4%
40.0%

30.0%

20.4%
20.0%

10.0%

0.0%
DeSantis Trump Undecided

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@VictoryPolling
info@victory-insights.com
victory-insights.com
(929) 388-6585

www.victory-insights.com