Marist College Institute for Public Opinion

Poughkeepsie, NY 12601 Phone 845.575.5050 Fax 845.575.5111 www.maristpoll.marist.edu

Campaign 2012 McClatchy-Marist Poll National Survey August 9, 2011

How the Survey was Conducted Nature of the Sample: National Poll of 1,000 Adults This survey of 1,000 adults was conducted on August 2nd through August 4th, 2011. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the continental United States were interviewed by telephone. Telephone numbers were selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the nation. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its population. To increase coverage, this land-line sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers. The two samples were then combined. Results are statistically significant within 3.0 percentage points. There are 807 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within 3.5 percentage points. There are 301 Republicans and Republican leaning independents. The results for this subset are statistically significant within 6.0 percentage points. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.

Nature of the Sample: Adults

Nature of the Sample: Registered Voters

Nature of the Sample: Republicans and Republican Leaning Independents

Definitely Vote For or Against President Obama in 2012

Asked of Registered Voters

Question Wording: Do you definitely plan to vote for Barack Obama for re-election as president or do you definitely plan to vote against him?

Definitely Vote For or Against President Obama in 2012 (Over Time)

Asked of Registered Voters

Question Wording: Do you definitely plan to vote for Barack Obama for re-election as president or do you definitely plan to vote against him?
Registered Voters Do you definitely plan to vote for Barack Obama for reelection as president or do you definitely plan to vote against him? Definitely vote for President Obama

Definitely vote against him Row % 40% 43% 44% 48%

Undecided Row % 20% 21% 18% 16%

August 2011 June 2011 April 2011 November 2010

Row % 40% 36% 37% 36%

Marist Poll Registered Voters

2012 Hypothetical Presidential Matchup: Obama/Romney

Asked of Registered Voters Split Sample

Question Wording: If the 2012 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

2012 Hypothetical Presidential Matchup: Obama/Romney (Over Time)

Asked of Registered Voters

Question Wording: If the 2012 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:
Registered Voters If the 2012 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

Barack Mitt Obama, the Romney, the Democrat Republican Undecided

August 2011 June 2011 April 2011 January 2011 December 2010

Row % 46% 46% 46% 51% 44%

Row % 41% 42% 45% 38% 46%

Row % 13% 11% 9% 11% 10%

Marist Poll Registered Voters

2012 Hypothetical Presidential Matchup: Obama/Giuliani

Asked of Registered Voters Split Sample

Question Wording: If the 2012 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

2012 Hypothetical Presidential Matchup: Obama/Pawlenty

Asked of Registered Voters Split Sample

Question Wording: If the 2012 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

2012 Hypothetical Presidential Matchup: Obama/Bachmann

Asked of Registered Voters Split Sample

Question Wording: If the 2012 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

2012 Hypothetical Presidential Matchup: Obama/Perry

Asked of Registered Voters Split Sample

Question Wording: If the 2012 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

2012 Hypothetical Presidential Matchup: Obama/Palin

Asked of Registered Voters Split Sample

Question Wording: If the 2012 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

2012 Hypothetical Presidential Matchup: Obama/Palin (Over Time)

Asked of Registered Voters

Question Wording: If the 2012 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

Registered Voters If the 2012 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

Barack Sarah Palin, Obama, the the Democrat Republican

Undecided Row % 9% 14% 10% 13% 9%

August 2011 June 2011 April 2011 January 2011 December 2010

Row % 56% 56% 56% 56% 52%

Row % 35% 30% 34% 30% 40%

Marist Poll Registered Voters

2012 Republican Presidential Primary

Asked of Republicans and Republican Leaning Independents

Question Wording: If the 2012 Republican presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:
Republicans and Republican leaning independents Col % If the 2012 Republican presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are: Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney Texas Governor Rick Perry Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann Businessman Herman Cain Texas Congressman Ron Paul Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum Former Georgia Congressman Newt Gingrich Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson Former Louisiana Governor Buddy Roemer Former U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman Political Activist Fred Karger Undecided 21% 18% 10% 9% 8% 6% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% <1% 14% Tea Party Supporters Col % 14% 25% 12% 6% 12% 9% 5% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% <1% 9%

Party Identification Republican Independent Col % 24% 16% 10% 9% 4% 4% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% <1% 17% Col % 15% 24% 9% 9% 17% 9% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 0% 1% <1% 7%

Marist Poll National Republicans and Republican Leaning Independents: Interviews conducted August 2nd through August 4th, 2011, N=301 MOE +/- 6%. Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding.

2012 Republican Presidential Primary (Over Time)

Asked of Republicans and Republican Leaning Independents

Question Wording: If the 2012 Republican presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

Republicans and Republican leaning independents August 2011 Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney If the 2012 Republican presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are: Texas Governor Rick Perry Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann Businessman Herman Cain Texas Congressman Ron Paul Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum Former Georgia Congressman Newt Gingrich Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson Former Louisiana Governor Buddy Roemer Former U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman Political Activist Fred Karger Undecided Other 21% 18% 10% 9% 8% 6% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% <1% 14% NA June 2011 19% 13% 11% 13% 8% 5% 5% 1% 2% 5% <1% NA 2% <1% 15% NA April 2011 18% NA 8% 9% 3% 2% 7% 2% 4% 2% NA NA 1% NA 11% 33% November 2010 20% NA 13% NA NA NA NA NA 10% 2% NA NA NA NA 14% 41%

Marist Poll National Republicans and Republican Leaning Independents