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TRANS-PACIFIC VIEW | DIPLOMACY | SOUTHEAST

How Will the

Biden Presidency
Impact US-
Philippines
Security
Relations?
The new administration
will take office at a crucial
time for the U.S.-
Philippines alliance.

By Mico Galang
November 10, 2020

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Philippine Special Operations Forces

Soldiers train with U.S. soldiers during the
2014 Balikatan joint military exercises.
Credit: Flickr/U.S. Indo-Pacific Command

Despite the fulminations of Donald Trump and

his supporters, former Vice President Joseph R.
Biden, Jr. will be the next president of the
United States. The turbulent 2020 U.S. election
was watched closely worldwide, including in
the Philippines. Although the road to the
January 2021 presidential inauguration may
depart from the typical smooth transfer of
power in Washington, it is crucial to examine
the relevant Philippine national security
interests vis-à-vis the U.S. and the prospects of
advancing the same in a Biden administration.

In the geopolitical milieu of what might be

termed the “Indo-Asia-Pacific,” there are two
crucial and related Philippine national security
interests at play in Manila’s relations with
Washington. First, the promotion of a stable
international order in the region. The
reemergence of China has the potential to
restructure, if not upend, the U.S.-led
international order, thus spawning strategic
competition between the two powers. Despite
President Rodrigo Duterte’s gravitation toward
China, the Philippine defense and foreign
policy establishments have voiced continued
support for a robust U.S. military presence as a
critical factor in maintaining a balance of
power in the region.

Second, the preservation and enhancement of

the Philippines-U.S. alliance which, among
other things, provides a platform for U.S.
power projection in the region, and for
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Philippines.

Despite its “America First” agenda, the Trump

administration declared that “inter-state
strategic competition, not terrorism, is now the
primary concern in U.S. national security,”
while describing China as a “revisionist
power.” Although its overall record is mixed,
the Trump administration has nevertheless
conducted frequent freedom of navigation
operations in the South China Sea (SCS),
advanced the Quad process, clarified treaty
commitments to the Philippines in both public
statements and domestic legislation, and
clarified its SCS policy, which included support
for the 2016 arbitral ruling in favor of the
Philippines and denunciation of China’s
expansive maritime claims.

While changes in “style and atmospherics” are

to be expected, a Biden administration will
likely not make a fundamental shift in U.S.
policy toward China. After all, a tougher stance
against Beijing is now largely a bipartisan
consensus in Washington. As such, Manila can
expect that strategic competition will continue
to define the U.S.-China relationship.

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The next U.S. presidential term (2021-2025)

will coincide with the current Philippine
presidential term (2016-2022) for about a year
and half. Despite a relatively short period of
time, these 18 months may prove to be
consequential for the alliance. In November
2020, the Duterte administration announced
that it is likely to extend the suspension of the
termination of the Philippines-U.S. Visiting
Forces Agreement (VFA) in December 2020 for
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another six months, until June 2021 – after

which the 180-day countdown to the formal
termination shall again resume. Thus, if there
will be no changes in Manila’s policy, the VFA,
which operationalizes the Mutual Defense
Treaty (MDT), will be formally abrogated
within the first year of the Biden
administration. Ironically, 2021 is also the year
that Manila and Washington will celebrate the
MDT’s 70th anniversary.

The issue of the VFA termination stemmed not

from Washington but from Manila. As pointed
out earlier, such a decision is at variance with
the perspectives of the majority of the
Philippine security and diplomatic
establishments. In other words, this
uncertainty could be ended by a shift in
Philippine policy. Nevertheless, if security ties
cannot be enhanced, it behooves the Biden
administration to at least preserve the military
alliance in light of China’s continuing
assertiveness in the SCS and elsewhere.

As pointed out by other observers, a major

point of disagreement between the U.S. and the
Philippines is the question of human rights. A
Biden administration that would publicly
criticize and impose sanctions on Manila on
such grounds may provide additional
justification for the latter to rollback elements
of the alliance, which is what happened during
the Obama administration. While security
relations improved under Trump, Manila
decided to terminate the VFA partly in
response to a human rights-related sanction
that revoked the U.S. visa of a Philippine
legislator. Clearly, mindful of domestic political
considerations in both countries, managing the
Philippines-U.S. alliance will be a challenge for
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the Biden administration.

Beyond the Duterte presidency, the Biden

administration may also face the issue of the
Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement
(EDCA) during its term. In 2024, EDCA will
reach its 10-year mark after coming to force in
2014. Although the agreement provided a
clause that it “shall continue in force
automatically” after ten years, some measure
of uncertainty may be expected, with some
members of the Philippine congress calling for
its termination.

As the mood over the election wanes, the rest

of the world will focus on how President Biden
plans to conduct U.S. foreign policy. For allied
countries like the Philippines, there is strategic
imperative to ensure that differences in other
issue areas do not damage efforts in advancing
shared security interests in a more volatile and
unpredictable geopolitical environment in the
Indo-Asia-Pacific.

Mico A. Galang is a lecturer at the Department

of Political Science, University of Santo Tomas
(Manila, Philippines). The views expressed are
the author’s alone.

TAGS

Trans-Pacific View Diplomacy Southeast Asia Philippines

United States Mutual Defense Treaty Philippines human rights

US Philippine relations US Philippines Trump

Visiting Forces Agreement

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