Will Psychological Effects of Real-Time
Transit Information Systems
Lead to Ridership Gain?
Lei Tang and Piyushimita (Vonu) Thakuriah
This paper examines whether the psychological effects of real-time tran-
sit information on commuters will lead to a gain in transit ridership. A
conceptual model, which posits a simultaneous structure among psycho-
logical and behavioral constructs, was developed on the basis of cog-
nitive models of behavior. Path analysis was used to analyze such a
process. A detailed stated preference survey for Chicago commuters
composed the data-gathering approach. The analysis results showed
that real-time transit information systems might achieve the goal of
increasing transit ridership through their psychological effects on com-
muters. The results indicated that the provision of real-time transit
information might serve as an intervention to break current transit
nonusers’ travel habits and in consequence increase the mode share of
transit use. Moreover, the results of this study suggest that real-time
transit information may be more successful in increasing transit rider-
ship if combined with facilitating programs that enhance commuters’
opportunities to be exposed to such systems before using them.
The availability of real-time transit information systems holds the
promise of making transit more attractive to users. Such systems
enable trip makers to make informed decisions by providing infor-
mation on the projected actual vehicle arrival and departure time at
stations and stops, projected vehicle connection information, and
expected origin–destination travel time (1). Originally available
through variable message signs at transit facilities or through the
Internet, software developers now have built application software
for smartphones and PDAs that uses underlying transit vehicle loca-
tion data, making such information ubiquitously available. Given
that large investments have been made and that the technology itself
has become sophisticated and user friendly over time, it becomes
necessary to understand the outcomes of these investments.
However, although transit information has been regarded in many
studies as one of the most important factors for increasing transit rid-
ership (2– 4), no convincing evidence to date in the literature shows
that such information systems can successfully increase transit use,
especially from nontransit users. Whereas some studies suggest that
the ridership effects of such systems are positive (5–8), others have
L. Tang, MacroSys Research and Technology, 1901 North Moore Street, Suite
509, Arlington, VA 22209. P. Thakuriah, Urban Planning and Policy, University
of Illinois at Chicago, 412 South Peoria, Suite 340, Chicago, IL 60607. Corre-
sponding author: L. Tang, lei.tang@macrosysrt.com.
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board,
No. 2216, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington,
D.C., 2011, pp. 67–74.
DOI: 10.3141/2216-08
67
given more conservative estimates of the impact of transit information
provision on modal shifts (9–11).
The seemingly strongest evidence supporting the ridership effects
of real-time transit information systems are those studies that com-
pare actual observed transit ridership statistics before and after the
implementation of such systems. With the use of such an approach,
many authors found that the transit ridership increased for routes
provided with real-time information systems (12–17). However, a
before-and-after evaluation does not provide evidence that is con-
vincing enough to assess the ridership effect of transit information,
because other factors (such as changes in population, gas prices,
transit fares, and employment rate and the redistribution of existing
transit customers from alternative transit routes) might contribute to
such an effect during and after the implementation of transit infor-
mation systems. Thus it cannot be concluded that increased rider-
ship is “a direct result of the (traveler information) system” only on
the basis of observing the ridership statistics reports (17, p. 3).
Although there are as yet no definitive reports of transit use or
mode share increase as a result of real-time transit information dis-
semination, many studies have found positive psychological effects
of real-time information on travelers (11, 12, 17–22), such as higher
satisfaction levels with transit service (11, 12, 17, 20, 22) and
reduced perceived wait times and anxieties (17, 19, 21). Some studies
have even hypothesized that a reduction of perceived wait times and
associated uncertainties could be one of the primary factors that con-
sequently lead to transit ridership increase (4, 23). However, to the
best of the authors’ knowledge, how such psychological factors are
linked to transit use when transit information is available, or what
the cognitive and behavioral processes are by means of which changes
in transit use may result from the use of information, has not been
previously examined empirically.
This research addresses some of the gaps in the existing research
by analyzing attitudinal and behavioral factors that may help to
explain changes in ridership that result from using real-time transit
traveler information systems. The authors hypothesized that such an
effect is closely related to the individual’s attitudinal factors, and the
psychological effects of real-time transit information systems on
travelers will lead to ridership gain. A detailed predictive model to
test this hypothesis was developed to understand whether and how
psychological factors, together with other influential factors such as
travelers’ sociodemographic factors and transit service factors (e.g.,
level of transit service), are likely to affect travelers’ behavior when
real-time transit information is provided. The conceptual framework
used is based on constructs from cognitive psychology. This frame-
work posits a simultaneous structure among psychological and
behavioral constructs to analyze travelers’ behavioral change in
using transit systems if real-time transit information is provided.
68
Because the behavioral changes resulting from the use of real-time
transit information might be different for different trip purposes, this
paper focuses on a particular trip type, the commuter trip. Further
research can be conducted to examine behavioral changes resulting
from using real-time transit information for different trip purposes.
A detailed stated preference (SP) survey was developed to collect
primary data from commuters in Chicago, Illinois. The analysis of
this data will assist policy makers and transit service providers to
better understand the causes underlying the behavioral effects of
real-time transit information, and will therefore be useful to them in
more efficiently developing transit promotion programs by using
transit information systems.
The paper is organized as follows: the next section presents the
major research questions and conceptual framework that have been
adopted using cognitive models to guide the analysis. The third sec-
tion describes the data used, and the fourth section presents an analy-
sis of the data. The final section summarizes the results of the study.
RESEARCH QUESTIONS AND
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
Research Questions
The research questions considered in this paper were motivated by
the discussion in the previous section and include
1. Will the psychological effects of real-time transit information
systems on commuters lead to transit ridership gain?
2. What other factors will also affect such an increase?
Conceptual Framework
To analyze the relationships between cognitive constructs and rid-
ership effect caused by real-time transit information, a predictive
Attributes of Transportation Conditions:
including attributes of larger travel
environment, and transit service factors
Mental Elements
Attitudes
Behavioral
BI1
Intentions
BI2
Travel Behavior
FIGURE 1 Conceptual framework depicting the relationships between traveler’s attitudes, behavioral intentions, and
behavior.
Transportation Research Record 2216
model was developed based on Huang’s information processing
model and the travel behavior model of Pearmain et al., both of
which are derived from the field of cognitive psychology (24, 25).
Cognitive psychologists claim that elements inside the mind are
causal in directing human behavior by mediating between the stim-
uli of the environment and the behavior of the individual (26). In
Huang’s model, individuals’ perceptions, attitudes, and behavioral
intentions are interrelated. These three factors are further determined
by the individuals’ information experience, evaluation criteria, and
socioeconomic characteristics (24). The Pearmain model com-
prises two sets of variables: one is a set of observable variables that
“serve[s] to promote and constrain market behavior” and that
includes the individual’s social characteristics and experience, attri-
butes of travel alternatives, information on travel alternatives, and
constraints on travel alternatives; the second is a chain of non-
observable variables that “reflect[s] consumers’ understanding of
their options and influence[s] their decisions to pursue particular
strategies” (27, p. 8). These mental elements include perception,
attitude, preference, and behavioral intentions (25). Both the Huang
and Pearmain models use behavioral intentions (the willingness of
the individual to try and the effort that the individual will exert to
perform the intended behavior) as the closest antecedents of actual
behavior, which is very similar to the theory of planned behavior.
The theory of planned behavior, one of the most influential attitude
models, explains and predicts consumer behavior by using psycho-
logical factors (27). The theory of planned behavior acknowledges
the role of attitudes in explaining consumer behavior and proposes
that behavioral intentions are the closest antecedents of actual
behavior (28). However, unlike the Huang and Pearmain models,
the theory of planned behavior does not include observable variables
that explain the internal mental elements.
Figure 1 shows the conceptual framework that guided this study.
This framework includes travelers’ sociodemographic characteris-
tics, personal experiences with transit system and real-time informa-
tion systems, and transit system condition factors. These factors are
Sociodemographic
Characteristics and Experiences
of Individual Trip Maker
BI1: Simple
measures for
behavioral Intention
BI2: Detailed
WTP intention indicator
WTP: Willingness
to pay
Tang and Thakuriah
similar to the observable factors used in the Pearmain model and are
used here to explain how the attitudinal factors are formed.
Previous studies hypothesize that a reduction of perceived wait
times and associated uncertainties could be one of the primary factors
linking real-time transit information systems to increased transit use.
Because travelers who are more time conscious (such as those who
are more concerned with travel time or get anxious more easily as a
result of travel delay) are more likely to perceive such benefits if tran-
sit information is provided, travelers’ attitudes toward travel time and
travel delay are used as an indicator or proxy for these possible psy-
chological effects from the provision of real-time information. These
psychological effects are not measured directly because at the time
data were collected for this study there were no systemwide real-time
transit information systems implemented in Chicago. As a result, it
might not be possible to fully capture the impacts that such systems
have on the psychology of users as many travelers might not have
prior experience with them.
Three indicators for behavioral intentions were used. The first is
BI1, which is the simplest form for intentions and indicates whether
the individual intends to perform the behavior. BI2 is a more detailed
intention indicator that gives information on how the individual is
going to change the behavior. The third indicator, willingness to pay
(WTP), suggests how much the individual is willing to pay for the
information. This indicator has been used previously to measure
behavioral intentions (24, 29, 30). Three behavioral intention indi-
cators are included in order to test the convergent validity of the mea-
surements of behavioral intentions. Convergent validity is the extent
to which one measure is correlated to other measures that theoreti-
cally should be related to it. Examining the convergent validity is one
way to evaluate the construct validity of an SP measurement (31). The
factors that affect these three indicators as well as the relationships
between them are empirically examined.
The two-way arrows between attitudes and behavioral intentions
in the conceptual model indicate that any reciprocity between atti-
tudes and behavioral intentions was examined (Figure 1). If a behav-
ior is the observed consequence of attitudes, it is a case belonging
to the attitude-before-behavior paradigm. In contrast, if the attitudes
of consumers alter after they experience a product, then it belongs
to the behavior-before-attitude paradigm (24). These two relation-
ships were explored empirically, that is, whether the behaviors of
the travelers were the consequence of their attitudes toward travel
time or their attitudes toward travel time changed after using real-time
transit information was examined.
On the basis of the conceptual framework discussed previously, a
four-equation simultaneous model was formulated to analyze the inter-
dependent relationship among commuters’ attitudes and behavioral
intentions in their decision-making process. The general framework
is specified as follows:
ATTI i = f ( WTPi , BI i ,1 , BI i ,2 , SE i ,1 , TCi ,1 ) + ei ,1 (1)
WTPi = g ( ATTI i , BI i ,1 , BI i ,2 , SE i ,2 , TCi ,2 ) + ei ,2 (2)
BI i ,1 = h ( ATTI i , WTPi , BI i ,2 , SE i ,3 , TCi ,3 ) + ei ,3 (3)
BI i ,2 = k ( ATTI i , WTPi , BI i ,1 , SE i ,4 , TCi ,4 ) + ei ,4 (4)
where
ATTIi = ith respondent’s attitudinal factor,
WTPi = ith respondent’s willingness to pay for real-time transit
information,
69
BIi,1 = ith respondent’s intention on whether to increase tran-
sit use if real-time transit information is available,
BIi,2 = detailed information on ith respondent’s intended
increase in transit use if real-time transit information is
available,
SEi = ith respondent’s sociodemographic characteristics and
experiences with transportation systems,
TCi = ith respondent’s perceived or actually experienced
transportation conditions, and
f, g, h, k = function forms.
DATA COLLECTION
To address the research questions using the proposed conceptual
framework, a survey was conducted from July to December in 2008
using an SP questionnaire. SP survey data were used instead of
observed data because it was necessary to examine the roles of psy-
chological factors during the behavioral change process when real-
time transit information was provided to the commuters; observed
data cannot provide such information.
The respondents in this survey were Chicago-area commuters who
were recruited through advertisements posted to Chicago’s craigslist,
community listserv, and different branches of the Chicago Public
Library and who came to the survey administration site voluntarily.
A small monetary incentive was given to the respondents.
The survey was administered in several small-group (six to eight
people) workshops. Respondents were first given a brief presentation
on the survey’s purpose, including a visual presentation (photographs
of the display of bus arrival times in PDAs, kiosks, and so on) to
explain several survey concepts, such as real-time information.
Respondents were told that the purpose of the survey was to evaluate
the potential benefits of information technologies by independent
researchers. The purpose of the visual aspects of the presentation was
to thoroughly familiarize respondents with the survey concepts to
reduce the hypotheticality bias for SP questions.
After the presentation, each respondent was given a paper-
based questionnaire. A self-administered survey was chosen over
a researcher-administered survey to help reduce interviewer bias
(e.g., answers influenced by respondents’ desire to please the inter-
viewer or meet the interviewer’s expectations). The survey included
questions on
• Sociodemographic information: basic, nonconfidential socio-
demographic information of the respondent;
• Perceived transportation conditions: respondents’ personal per-
ceptions and opinions regarding transportation systems and transit
services in Chicago;
• Experiences of individual trip maker: respondents’ trip charac-
teristics, such as their mode choice in commute trips, their current
use of transit (including the number of one-way commute trips they
make by transit per week), and their previous experience with real-time
transit information;
• Attitudes: respondents’ attitudes toward travel time and delay;
and
• Behavioral intentions: whether the respondents intended to
increase transit use in general if real-time transit information were
provided; the number of such intended one-way transit commuter
trips per week; and the maximum transit fare increase the respondents
would accept to have real-time transit traveler information available.
These three questions represented the three behavioral intention indi-
cators used to test the convergent validity of the measurements of
behavioral intentions.
70 Transportation Research Record 2216

DATA ANALYSIS not make any such increase. The stated increase in transit commute
trips (ICW) was used as the second behavioral intention indicator,
Exploratory Data Analysis BI2. In the next section the factors that contribute to such intended
increases are examined empirically. The theory of planned behav-
A total of 99 respondents participated in the survey, 92 of whom ior assumes that behavioral intentions are the best predictor of
completed all the questions. The variables used in the simultaneous actual behavior; this assumption was used to interpret the analysis
models and the sample statistics of these variables based on the sur- results.
vey are presented in Table 1. From this table it is seen that 76.1%
of the respondents stated they would increase transit use if real-time
transit information were available. Average WTP for real-time
transit information is 36.9 cents per ride. About half of the respon- Path Analysis
dents indicated that travel time is their major concern in mode
choice or that they get annoyed easily when their travels are delayed. With the use of the variables identified in Table 1, Equations 1 to 4
More than half of the respondents had prior experience with (i.e., can be rewritten as follows:
have used or seen other people using) real-time transit information
systems. The stated increase for transit commute trips was 0.89 ⎛ WTPi , BI i , ICWi , MALE i , INCi , AGE i , ⎞
one-way trips per week on average if real-time information were ATTI i = f ⎜ EMi , HIEDU i , WH i , CAR i , UR i , CWTi ,⎟ + ei ,1 (5)
available; however, more than 60 respondents indicated they would ⎜⎝ EX , SC , EI , TA , ONT ⎟⎠
i i i i i

TABLE 1 Variable Definitions and Sample Statistics

Variable Description Measure Mean SD

Independent Variables
ATTI Attitude toward travel time (if the respondent gets annoyed easily when 1 = yes 0.554 0.500
travel is delayed or travel time is one major concern in selecting a 0 = otherwise
travel route or mode)
WTP The maximum transit fare increase the respondent would accept in order Continuous variable 36.900 49.817
to have real-time transit traveler information available
BI (BI1) Behavioral intentions (if the respondent reports they will use transit 1 = yes 0.761 0.429
more often if given transit real-time information) 0 = otherwise
ICW (BI2) Stated increase in one-way commute trips per week using transit Count variable 0.890 1.486
Sociodemographic Characteristics and Experiences with Transportation Systems
MALE Respondent is male 1 = yes 0.460 0.501
0 = otherwise
INC Respondent’s household income in 2007 (in $1,000) Continuous variable 51.685 31.489
AGE Respondent’s age Continuous variable 37.570 11.127
EM Respondent employed full time for pay 1 = yes 0.610 0.491
0 = otherwise
HIEDU Whether the respondent has a bachelor’s degree or higher 1 = yes 0.850 0.361
0 = otherwise
WH Whether the respondent is white 1 = yes 0.570 0.498
0 = otherwise
CAR Whether car is accessible to the respondent 1 = yes 0.730 0.447
0 = otherwise
UR Whether respondent is a transit user (used transit at least once in the past 1 = yes 0.900 0.299
30 days) 0 = otherwise
CWT Number of current one-way commute trips per week using transit Count variable 5.160 4.396
EX Whether respondent has used or seen other people using real-time transit 1 = yes 0.570 0.498
information before 0 = otherwise
SC Whether transit service quality is a major concern of the respondent in 1 = yes 0.790 0.407
choosing transit as a travel mode 0 = otherwise
Perceived or Actual Transportation Conditions
EI Whether current transit information is easily accessible to the respondent 1 = yes 0.820 0.390
0 = otherwise
TAa Transit availability index Continuous variable 0.710 0.107
ONT Whether the respondent thinks the current transit service is on time 1 = yes 0.280 0.453
0 = otherwise

NOTE: SD = standard deviation.

a
This index is a composite of frequency of transit, hours of service, and service coverage per census tract. Its value ranges from 0 to 1. Greater value of TA means
higher transit availability (32).
Tang and Thakuriah 71

⎛ ATTI i , BI i , ICWi , MALE i , INCi , AGE i , ⎞ TABLE 2 Path Analysis Estimation Results
WTPi = g ⎜ EMi , HIEDU i , WH i , CAR i , UR i , CWTi ,⎟ + ei ,2 (6)
⎜⎝ EX , SC , EI , TA , ONT ⎟⎠ Logistic
i i i i i Two-Tailed Regression
Variable Estimate SE P-Value Odds Ratio
⎛ ATTI i , WTPi , ICWi , MALE i , INCi , AGE i ,⎞
BI i = h ⎜ EMi , HIEDU i , WH i , CAR i , UR i , CWTi , ⎟ + ei ,3 (7) ICW [BI2] (Poisson Model of Intended Increase in Number of One-Way
⎜⎝ EX , SC , EI , TA , ONT , EX × UR ⎟⎠ Commute Trips)
i i i i i
ATTI 0.819 0.293 .005
⎛ ATTI i , WTPi , BI i , MALE i , INCi , AGE i ,⎞ EX 0.651 0.321 .042
ICWi = k ⎜ EMi , HIEDU i , WH i , CAR i , UR i , CWTi , ⎟ + ei ,4 (8) WTP −0.009 0.005 .059
⎜⎝ EX , SC , EI , TA , ONT ⎟⎠ CWT 0.343 0.127 .007
i i i i i
CWT2 −0.028 0.012 .022
100 × TA −0.019 1.124 .094
The empirical model specified in Equations 5 to 8 represents a
mixed simultaneous system with binary dependent variables for ATTI Inflate (Zero-Inflated Regression of ICW Model)
(attitude) and BI (simple intention indicator), a count variable for ICW CWT 0.46 0.153 .003 1.584
(detailed intention indicator), and a continuous variable for WTP. ONT 1.648 0.84 .050 5.197
SC −2.056 1.229 .094 0.128
An interaction term of transit user status and previous experience 100 × TA −0.084 4.424 .057 0.919
with real-time transit information systems was introduced in the BI
ATTI (Binary Logit Model of Attitude)
model. This interaction term tested whether real-time transit informa-
tion systems might affect a respondent’s transit use habit. The infor- EM 1.086 0.62 .080 2.963
WH −1.381 0.594 .020 0.251
mation on the respondent’s current transit user status was used to CAR −1.827 0.677 .007 0.161
represent transit use habit: if the respondent had not used transit at least WTP 0.017 0.006 .010 1.017
once in the month before the survey, it was assumed that this person ICW 0.386 0.176 .028 1.472
had a strong habit of not using transit. With the introduction of the INC 0.033 0.011 .004 1.033
interaction term between transit use habit and previous experience with BI [BI1] (Binary Logit Model of Stated Intentions to Increase Transit Use)
real-time transit information systems, whether such experience could UR 3.163 1.209 .009 23.64
help break the transit nonuse habit and increase transit mode share EI −1.623 0.757 .032 0.197
could be tested. This interaction term is further explained below. WH 1.531 0.74 .039 4.624
Because more than 65% of the respondents indicated they would SC 1.617 0.749 .031 5.036
ATTI 1.234 0.743 .097 3.436
not increase transit use for commute trips if real-time transit informa- WTP 0.019 0.01 .047 1.019
tion were available, a zero-inflated Poisson regression was used to CWT −0.305 0.079 .000 0.737
model such an effect. With a zero-inflated Poisson model, two regres- ICW 0.434 0.237 .066 1.544
sions were estimated for the ICW model. The first regression was for EX × UR −0.206 0.737 .780 0.814
observations with nonzero values, that is, for the stated increase in WTP (Linear Regression Model of Willingness to Pay for Real-Time
transit commute trips that was more than zero. The second regres- Transit Information)
sion was to model the probability of being unable to assume nonzero ATTI 26.555 11.206 .018
values, that is, for the probability of the stated increase in transit BI 19.588 8.489 .021
commute trips that was more than zero. EX 24.37 11.005 .027
ICW −7.215 3.366 .032
The software Mplus was used to estimate these simultaneous equa-
tions. The equations with binary dependent variables were estimated Intercepts for Model
as logistic regressions, the equation with continuous dependent vari- WTP −0.065 9.545 .995
ables was estimated as a linear regression, and the one with count ICW(inflate) 4.813 3.097 .120
ICW 0.772 0.838 .357
dependent variables was estimated as a zero-inflated Poisson model.
Maximum likelihood with robust standard errors was applied as the Thresholds for Model
estimation method. This modeling process is called path analysis, in ATTI 0.834 0.654 .202
which “several related regression relationships” are estimated in a BI 1.770 1.331 .184
simultaneous process (33). Residual Variances
WTP 2,098.128 636.693 .001

Model Results NOTE: SE = standard error. Log likelihood: H0 = −655.172; H0 scaling

This section discusses the model results from the path analysis. Esti-
mates for the models specified in the previous section are given in
Table 2. Some of the initial variables were dropped during model
modification.
Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression of ICW
The model output shows that the factors that have direct significant
effects on ICW are ATTI (attitudes toward travel time), EX (previ-
ous experience with real-time transit information), WTP (willing-
correction factor for maximum likelihood estimation with robust standard
error = 1.003. Information criteria: number of free parameters = 35;
Akaike = 1,380.345; Bayesian = 1,468.607; sample size adjusted Bayesian
(n* = (n + 2)/24) = 1,358.128.
ness to pay for real-time transit information), CWT (number of current
transit commute trips), and TA (transit availability index).
The positive sign of ATTI suggests that respondents who have con-
cerns with travel time or delay are more likely to increase transit use in
the presence of real-time transit information systems. This finding
supports the hypothesis that perceived reduction in wait times and
associated uncertainties could be one of the primary factors linking
72
real-time transit information systems to increased transit use. This find-
ing also provides empirical support for the attitude-before-behavior
paradigm theory.
The positive sign of EX suggests that those who have previous
experience with real-time transit information systems are more likely
to have a positive intention to increase transit use. This result sug-
gests that real-time transit information systems are more effective in
increasing transit use among people who have previously used them.
This finding is consistent with studies that suggest that intervention
programs will influence psychological factors and in consequence
change consumers’ behavior (34, 35). In this case, the intervention
(i.e., real-time transit information systems) can help respondents to
develop positive behavioral intentions toward transit usage, and in
consequence they might increase their transit use.
WTP has a significantly negative effect on ICW. This finding is
as expected, as the individual who takes more transit trips per week
would be less likely to pay as much as the person who takes fewer
transit trips per week.
Because there should be a ceiling effect of real-time information
on number of trips, that is, it would be difficult to make frequent
transit users travel even more, CWT is used as a polynomial func-
tion in the ICW equation to explain such an effect. The negative sign
of CWT2 suggests a concave curve using CWT to explain ICW. The
model estimates show that Chicago commuters making six one-way
transit commuter trips per week (calculated by function [−0.343 ÷
(−2 × 0.028)]) will increase transit use more than other commuters,
which means the infrequent transit users are most likely to increase
transit use if real-time transit information systems are provided.
TA has a negative impact on ICW, which means that if real-time
transit information were provided, the increase in transit use for
commuter trips by individuals living in neighborhoods with better
transit service would be less than by those living in neighborhoods
with a lower level of transit availability. People living in neighbor-
hoods with better transit service are more likely to have used transit
quite often, and are not likely to increase transit use even if they are
given better transit service. This finding is consistent with the ceiling
effect discussed above.
In the inflated regression model of ICW, both CWT and ONT
(perception of whether current transit service is on time) are signif-
icant and with positive signs, which indicates that commuters who
are more frequent transit users or who think the current transit is on
time will be more likely to make additional transit trips if real-time
transit information is provided to them. The negative sign of TA in
the inflated regression model indicates that commuters in a better
service area are less likely to make any additional trips if real-time
transit information systems are provided. This finding is consistent
with the finding discussed above. The inflated regression also shows
that commuters with service concerns (SC) are less likely to make
any additional transit commute trips if real-time transit information
is provided to them.
Binary Logit Model of Attitude Toward Travel Time
In the ATTI equation, variables EM (full-time employment status),
INC (household income), WTP, and ICW have positive signs and are
significant. These results suggest that commuters who are currently
employed full time for pay, have higher income, and have intention
to pay for real-time transit information systems or to increase transit
use if given real-time transit information are more likely to have con-
Transportation Research Record 2216
cerns with travel time and travel delay. The significant effects of
WTP and ICW on ATTI provide empirical support for the behavior-
before-attitude paradigm. The variables that have significant nega-
tive effects on ATTI are WH (being white) and CAR (having a car),
which indicate commuters who are white or have a car are less likely
to have concerns regarding travel time.
Binary Logit Model of Behavioral Intentions
The BI equation shows that variables UR (user), EI (information
easy to use), WH, SC, ATTI, WTP, CWT, and ICW have direct sig-
nificant effects on BI. Commuters who are current transit users,
white, have service concerns, have concerns for travel time, express
higher WTP, or intend to increase their number of transit trips if
real-time transit information systems are provided are more likely
to state intention to increase transit use if transit information is pro-
vided. Those commuters who think current information is already
very easy to use or who currently use transit very often are less likely
to express such an intention. Most of these findings are quite as
expected. However, there is one seeming inconsistency between the
signs of SC in the BI model and ICW model. One explanation is that
the BI model is for transit trips in general and ICW is for commuter
trips. Thus commuters with service concerns might not increase
commuter trips, but they may increase transit use for other trip pur-
poses. The positive signs of WTP and ICW in the BI model suggest
that the three intention indicators are consistent in predicting respon-
dents’ intentions toward real-time transit information systems, which
proves the construct validity of these indicators. The positive sig-
nificant effect of ATTI further provides empirical support for the
attitude-before-behavior paradigm.
The interaction term (the interaction between transit user status
and previous experience with real-time transit information systems)
in the BI equation is not significant, although its negative sign sug-
gests the potential effect of real-time transit information in reducing
the gap between transit users and nonusers regarding their intentions
to increase transit use. This negative sign also indicates that transit
nonusers with prior experience with real-time transit information
systems would be more likely to increase transit use if real-time
information were provided compared with those who do not have
such experience. This finding suggests that real-time transit infor-
mation systems might be a potential tool to break automobile users’
behavioral habit and increase transit mode share.
Linear Regression of WTP
The variables that have significant positive effect on WTP are ATTI,
BI, and EX. The estimated results show that commuters who have
travel time concerns, intend to increase transit use given real-time
transit information, or have previous experience with real-time tran-
sit information systems are likely to pay more for real-time transit
information provided for each ride. As in the ICW and BI equations,
the positive significant effect of ATTI provides empirical support
for the attitude-before-behavior paradigm. The positive significant
effect of BI in the WTP equation provides further evidence for the
consistency between WTP and BI as indicators for behavioral inten-
tions. The positive significant effect of EX is consistent with its effect
in the ICW equation.
The variable ICW has a negative significant effect on WTP. This
is also expected, because as commuters increase transit use, they
Tang and Thakuriah
have to pay more for the information overall, which will tend to
decrease the payment for each ride.
DISCUSSION OF RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
The main purpose of this study was to examine whether the psycho-
logical effects of real-time transit information on travelers would
lead to transit ridership gain. A theoretical model that posits a simul-
taneous structure among psychological and behavioral constructs
was developed to analyze such a process. A detailed SP survey for
Chicago commuters comprised the data-gathering approach.
The results show that commuters’ behavioral intentions to increase
transit use are closely related to their attitudes toward travel time when
real-time information is provided. Travelers’ attitudes toward travel
time can serve as an indicator for the possible psychological effects
from the provision of real-time transit information; thus this research
provides evidence supporting the hypothesis that the psychological
effects on commuters caused by the provision of real-time transit infor-
mation systems might lead to transit ridership increase. Because many
studies have shown the psychological benefits of the provision of real-
time information, it should be possible to conclude that the present
results support the ridership effects of real-time information systems.
The study results also show that respondents’ travel habits and their
past experience with real-time information systems also affect their
behavioral intentions. According to the model results, most of the
additional trips come from infrequent transit commuters. Commuters
who do not regularly use transit are less likely to increase transit use
if such systems are available; however, the provision of real-time
transit information might serve as an intervention to break such a
habit if commuters are familiarized with this system, and in conse-
quence change their travel behavior to favor transit use. Other fac-
tors that affect commuters’ transit use intentions include the current
transit service level for their neighborhood, their service concerns,
their perception of currently provided information, and the ethnic
group to which they belong.
Moreover, this analysis shows the reciprocal relationship between
attitudes and behavioral intentions. The findings from the path analy-
sis suggest that not only the commuters attitudes’ toward travel time
will affect their intentions to use transit with real-time transit infor-
mation systems, but also such attitudes might be altered after com-
muters have experienced these systems. These results imply that
real-time transit information systems might help improve commuters’
consciousness of travel time, which in turn will lead to further
increases in transit use if information is available. This finding is con-
sistent with the earlier finding that past experience with real-time
information will help increase transit use if real-time information is
provided. There are several implications from the research results
for transit service providers:
1. Real-time information systems provision should be consid-
ered as one way to improve transit ridership. The psychological ben-
efits brought about by such systems are one of the reasons leading
to ridership gain.
2. Real-time information systems have the potential to serve as
an effective intervention to change the travel habits of current tran-
sit nonusers and increase their transit use; thus such systems have
the potential to be used as a tool to increase transit mode share.
3. As past experience with real-time transit information systems
has a positive effect on commuters’ attitudes and intentions to increase
transit use if such a system were provided, transit operators planning
73
to deploy such systems may increase transit ridership by establish-
ing facilitating programs to familiarize commuters with real-time
transit information systems.
Examples of facilitating programs include advertisements and
reports about real-time transit information through television and
newspapers. Application software systems using collaborative fil-
tering techniques could also be helpful in recommending mobile
real-time transit applications to smartphone and Web users (36).
When these users are searching for other travel-related applications,
the search results could be accompanied by a recommendation for
real-time transit applications. Multiple technology service providers
such as Google are already bundling real-time transit information
into mapping and navigation services for drivers and nonmotorized
transportation users. These technologies are likely to bring real-time
transit information systems closer to nonusers. However, as negative
past experiences with real-time transit information will not encour-
age travelers to favor transit, the information provided should meet
the customers’ needs in order to help increase transit use. Information
should be effective, reliable, easily digested and, if possible, satisfying
individual requirements.
One major contribution of this research is that it fills the gap that
exists in the literature by examining the underlying psychological fac-
tors that explain and predict the ridership effect of real-time transit
information systems. Further, this study also examined how these psy-
chological factors are affected by other factors. These findings will
help policy makers and transit service providers to better understand
the underlying causes for the behavioral effects of real-time transit
information and to develop corresponding programs to promote
transit usage more efficiently.
Although the present study yields detailed insights into how com-
muters would respond to real-time transit information, there are some
limitations to this research. First, it was assumed that behavioral inten-
tions are the best predictors of actual behavior, and this assumption
was used to interpret the model results. However, the use of intentions
to predict actual behaviors will not always lead to satisfactory results,
although many empirical studies have proven the predictive validity
of such indictors, especially when a person is in a situation over which
he or she has complete control of his or her actions (37). However,
several assumptions must be met to use this predictor more efficiently.
The most important assumption is that human beings are rational deci-
sion makers; however, this is not always true. People sometimes make
decisions on unconscious motives, and such behaviors cannot be
explained or predicted by the model.
Second, this research used SP survey data to explore factors that
would affect commuters’ intentions to increase transit use if real-time
transit information were available. However, SP surveys are subject
to a variety of biases, such as hypotheticality biases, judgment biases
(e.g., noncommitment bias), and strategic biases. Respondents’
answers to the behavioral intention questions might also be influenced
by a desire to please the researchers or meet their expectations. The
authors tried to reduce these biases when conducting the survey, but
they can still exist. These possible biases in the survey data might
influence the analysis results.
Third, because of a resource constraint, a random sample with a suf-
ficiently large sample size to collect the data was not possible, and the
respondents who came to the survey voluntarily might not represent
the population. Thus it may be problematic to generalize these results
to the entire Chicago area. However, since the purpose of the study was
not to develop generalizable results but for problem understanding, the
representativeness of the sample is less of an issue.
74
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The Public Transportation Marketing and Fare Policy Committee peer-reviewed
this paper.