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P1314 005216 3 GENERIC The Business Case For Systems Engineering 180314
P1314 005216 3 GENERIC The Business Case For Systems Engineering 180314
SYSTEMS ENGINEERING
10 March 2018
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Relationship to Performance
Driver (Gamma)
All Projects Lower challenge Higher challenge
SEC-Total – total deployed SE +0.49 +0.34 +0.62 Gamma Relationship
SEC-PP – project planning +0.46 +0.16 +0.65 -0.2 <| Gamma | ≤ 0 Weak negative
SEC-REQ – reqts. developt. & mgmt. +0.44 +0.36 +0.50 0 ≤ | Gamma | < 0.2 Weak positive
SEC-VER – verification +0.43 +0.27 +0.60 0.2 ≤ | Gamma | < 0.3 Moderate
SEC-ARCH – product architecture +0.41 +0.31 +0.49 0.3 ≤ | Gamma | < 0.4 Strong
SEC-CM – configuration management +0.38 +0.22 +0.53 0.4 ≤ | Gamma | Very strong
Source: “The Business Case for Systems Engineering Study: Results of the Systems
Engineering Effectiveness Survey”, CMU/SEI-2012-SR-009, November 2012
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% of
Projects For “challenged”
% of and cancelled
Projects For “challenged”
projects:
and cancelled
projects:
Average cost
overrun: 89%
Average cost
overrun: 89%
% of Cost Overrun
% of
Projects For “challenged”
% of and cancelled projects:
Project
s
Average schedule
overrun: 122%
% Schedule Overrun
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% of
% of
Projects For “challenged”
Project For “challenged”
s projects:
projects:
Average missing
Average missing
features: 39%
features: 39%
% of Missing Features
•
Outward and Upward Looking View
(part of one or more bigger systems)
leads to
Object View
(object with required and desired Requirements
characteristics) +
Goals
leads to
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PROJECT PERFORMANCE
INTERNATIONAL
SRA,SRR,ADR,DDR
www.ppi-int.com
S S
PCA
SRR
SRA ADR ADR
DDR DDR
SE
(e.g., Aircraft, time
SE
time
Air Traffic Control trend trend PCA
System)
SE
(e.g., Propulsion HWITLS
SE
System, Airframe) PITLS
SWITLS PCA OT&E
Legend :
ADR
A Build, increment, etc.
Architectural Design Review
SE
(e.g., Engine, e.g. test SE
DDR Detailed Design Review Fuel Pump) RSA
HWITLS Hardware in the Loop Simulation
time
OT&E Operational Test & Evaluation
PCA
PITLS
Physical Configuration Audit
People in the Loop Simulation DESIGN BUILD
RSA (FCA) Requirements Satisfaction Audit
Verification:
S Top-Level System
Is the work product correct-meets requirements?
SE System Element
SRA System Requirements Analysis Validation:
SRR System Requirements Review
Does the work product satisfy the need for the work product?
SWITLS Software in the Loop Simulation ™
WEDGE MODEL
PPI-006003-9
© Copyright Project Performance (Australia) Pty Ltd 2007 - 2017 Page 14 of 48
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• New Systems/Products
• Families of Products
• Response to obsolescence
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• The enterprise
• Capability/business/enterprise systems
• End-use products
• Production systems
• Maintenance systems
• Training systems
• Project systems
• Engineering systems
• Anything else for which a solution does not already exist, and is sought!
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1:1 Customer/Contractor
Business Model
Product-Oriented
Free Market Place
Business Model
- Trade Off: Interests of Secondary Stakeholder (Customer) versus Primary Stakeholder (company)
PPI-005332-6
© Copyright Project Performance (Australia) Pty Ltd 2007-2014 Page 19 of 48
• Market leadership
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• No desire to outsource
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• Harnessing of creativity
• A learning environment
• Shared vision of the outcome and a related focus on quality, cost, time
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• Milestones missed
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5 C S
>35 <0.8 <0.5
OPTIMISING U E
S R
4 T V
MEASURED O I
>25 <2.0 <2.0
3 M C
DEFINED E E
R
3 C
DEFINED >20 <4.0 <3.0 O
2 E R
MANAGED R R
R E
1 O C
PERFORMED <20 >4.0 >3.0 R T
0 I
INITIAL O
N
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3. Manufacturing Costs
• Reduced by as much as 30-40% by having integrated product teams
integrate product and process designs
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Archibald & Prado, “PM Maturity 2006 Research –Maturity and Success in IT”, March, 2007
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Ad hoc/chaotic: Increased
1 Unpredictable Risk
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100%
90% 15% Higher
Project Performance (Perf)
24% Perf
80%
70% 33% 57%
60% Middle
50% 47% Perf
40%
30%
52% 24%
20% Lower
10% 29% 20% Perf
0%
Lower SEC (n=48) Middle SEC (n=49) Higher SEC (n=51) All Projects
Total Systems Engineering Capability (SEC-Total)
Gamma = 0.49 p-value < 0.001
Source: The
“Theleft column represents
Business Case forprojects
Systemsdeploying lower levels
Engineering of SE,
Study: as measured
Results of the by assessingEngineering
Systems the
quantity and quality of specific
Effectiveness SE work
Survey”, products. Among these projects,
CMU/SEI-2012-SR-009, only 15%
November 2012delivered
higher levels of project performance, as measured by satisfaction of budget, schedule, and tech-
nical requirements. Within this group, 52% delivered lower levels of project performance. Page 35 of 48
100% 100%
8%
90% 23% 23% 90%
26%
80% 80% 23%
70% 52% 70% 62%
60% 60%
45% 35%
50% 58% 50%
40% 40%
69% 12%
30% 36% 30%
20% 20% 39%
32% 27%
10% 19% 10%
12%
0% 0%
Lower SEC Middle SEC Higher SEC Lower SEC Middle SEC Higher SEC
(n=22) (n=26) (n=25) (n=26) (n=23) (n=26)
Gamma = 0.34 p-value = 0.029 Gamma = 0.62 p-value < 0.001
SEC-REQ – reqts. developt. & mgmt. +0.44 +0.36 +0.50 0 ≤ | Gamma | < 0.2 Weak positive
SEC-VER – verification +0.43 +0.27 +0.60 0.2 ≤ | Gamma | < 0.3 Moderate
SEC-ARCH – product architecture +0.41 +0.31 +0.49 0.3 ≤ | Gamma | < 0.4 Strong
SEC-CM – configuration management +0.38 +0.22 +0.53 0.4 ≤ | Gamma | Very strong
Source: “The Business Case for Systems Engineering Study: Results of the Systems Engineering
Effectiveness Survey”, CMU/SEI-2012-SR-009, November 2012
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SEC-IPT integrated product +0.18 Weak -0.12 Weak +0.40 Very strong
team utilization positive negative positive
Table 10: Summary of Relationships Between Other Factors and Project Performance
Driver Relationship to Performance
All projects Lower challenge Higher challenge
projects projects
PC – Project challenge -0.26 Moderate -0.26 Moderate -0.23 Moderate
negative negative negative
EXP – Prior experience +0.36 Strong +0.51 Very strong +0.19 Weak
positive positive positive
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2 6
4.2.1
5
AND AND
4
4.2.2
3
5
LP OR OR LP
4.2.3
VRS
OCD
Analytical work products
VM
OCD: operational concept description (CONUSE) is a restatement of
URS: SyRS of user requirements traces to/from
SyRS: system requirements specification
VM: value (or system/software effectiveness) model
VRS: verification requirements specification
PPI-005499-4
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* OTHER
FUNCTIONAL PARSING ERA CONSTRAINTS
ANALYSIS ANALYSIS ANALYSIS SEARCH
REST OF
SCENARIO
ANALYSIS
OUT-OF-RANGE
ANALYSIS
CLEAN-UP
PPI-006248-2
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Overruns Attributed to
Organization/Project
Requirements Problems
NASA over two decades (Werner 70% of overruns
Gruhl)
U.S. Census Bureau project 2009 80% cost overrun locked in solely due to
poor requirements
Marine One Helicopter Program 83% cost overrun attributed by Lockheed
to requirements problems
Schwaber, 2006; Weinberg, 1997; “Requirements errors are the single
Nelson et al, 1999 greatest source of defects and quality
problems”
Hofmann and Lehner, 2001 “Deficient requirements are the single
biggest cause of software project failure”
Standish Group, The Chaos Report on 60.9% of an average 89% cost overrun
8300 IT projects
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Parameter Value
Contract value $4B
Requirements on the Ship 27,000, only fair in quality
Consequence if uncorrected At least 20% loss of capability, costing at
least $800M; or
Rework costs exceeding 20%
Cost of fixing the requirements $8M (0.2% of contract value)
Return on Investment Approximately 100:1
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Paramater Value
% Sales spent on marketing 12.5%
% Sales spent on bidding 9-10%
Win ratio for the more successful 1 in 2 to 1 in 4
companies
Typical cost/bid, % Total Contract Value 2-3% TCV
Cost of winning business from a new 5:1
customer vis-à-vis a satisfied existing
customer
Cost of preserving customer satisfaction 0.2% TCV
through requirements analysis
TCV: Total Contract Value
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Robert J. Halligan
Email: rhalligan@ppi-int.com
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