International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

Volume 13, September 2015, Pages 291-300

GIS based mapping of vulnerability to earthquake and fire

hazard in Dhaka city, Bangladesh
Naima Rahman a , Mehedi A. Ansary b, 1 , Ishrat Islam c, 2

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Abstract

As Dhaka city is at risk of earthquake and fire hazard, ward 29, an old part of Dhaka city has
been selected for vulnerability assessment of both hazards in this study and social
vulnerability has been included in the assessment as it has become an important issue in the
recent years. The methodology of three different vulnerability assessments and the way of
combining the results of the assessments to develop composite vulnerability score of the study
area has been described. A sample of 350 buildings has been analyzed by a visual screening
method FEMA-RVS for earthquake, a methodology developed by ADPC [1] for fire hazard and
a methodology developed by World Bank [24] for social vulnerability. The composite
vulnerability score has been developed by incorporating earthquake and fire hazard as well as
social vulnerability condition of the study area and represented in form of map produced
using ArcGIS 10 showing buildings of different vulnerable categories. The study area is
relatively more vulnerable to fire hazard than earthquake. As it is one of the most densely
populated wards in Dhaka city, social factors have compounded the overall vulnerability to
higher scale. Most of the buildings are vulnerable to both earthquake and fire hazard
considering social impacts. Thus ideal mitigation planning to reduce risk is almost
impossible here without involvement of community people. By warning them of their own
risk and making them resilient through awareness programs and training, disaster risk in the
study area can be reduced effectively.
Introduction

Bangladesh is the fifth most natural disaster prone country in the world [16] that is affected
almost every year by some form of natural disaster. The historical trend of seismicity and
some recent tremors occurred in Bangladesh and adjoining areas indicate that the country is
at high risk of earthquake [9] and major earthquakes might take place in Bangladesh [7]. Dhaka
city is at the highest relative earthquake disaster risk [18] under Madhupur Fault as expressed
by local experts, as the phenomenal urbanization, high density of population and fast growing
high-rise structures [21]. Although no moderate to large earthquake has struck Dhaka city in
historical past, it experiences minor tremors almost all the year round which indicates the
region to be seismically active [15]. The physical characteristic of the region made the
community more vulnerable to earthquake. Some buildings in older part of Dhaka city
collapsed even without any earthquake [13], so it is beyond imagination what will happen
during an earthquake. In June 2004 a five storied building collapsed in Sakhari bazaar which
killed 19 people and injured several others among its 30 inhabitants. Due to poor construction
quality of buildings, in April 2005 a nine-storied factory building collapsed in Savar that killed
70 people and injuring around 200 others among its 300 workers and in February 2006, a five
storied under construction building collapsed in Tejgaon that killed 18 and injured 40
workers. On 24 April 2013, a nine-storey building ‘Rana Plaza’ collapsed in Savar is considered
one of the worst man made hazard killing 1127 people and more than 100 are still missing [3].
If a 6-magnitude earthquake shakes Dhaka originating from its beneath some 78,323
buildings will be destroyed completely with an economic loss of US $1075 million [9]. The risk
in urban center is complex due to unplanned urbanization and development in high risk
zones. Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh is the center of economy, commerce, politics, etc. and
accommodates vast population of 17,151,925 in the wider metropolitan area while the
population of Dhaka city Corporation has approximately 9,254,473 in 2011 [5]. Particularly the
older part of the city is relatively more vulnerable due to high density of population.
According to Bangladesh Population Census 2011 the population density of Chawkbazar
Thana at Old Dhaka is 8229 per square kilometer [5]. Besides, the densely constructed old and
unreinforced masonry buildings along with narrow local streets make the locality more
earthquake disaster prone. Along with earthquake, fire hazard has become a major issue of
concern as Dhaka city has experienced a number of notable fires like Nimtoli Fire,
Bashundhara City Complex Fire, Bangladesh Steel and Engineering Corporation (BSEC)
Bhaban Fire and Tazreen Garments Fire etc. in the recent years [4]. A report of Bangladesh Fire
Service and Civil Defense [6] shows a rising trend in the number of fire incidents in the Dhaka
city. Dhaka the capital of Bangladesh often faces fire hazards due to its dense building
concentrations, narrow roads, flammable building materials, aging water supply and electrical
wire, chemical factory in residential areas as well as the lack of preparedness and response
skills among local people and the fire authority. The annual monetary loss due to fire
accidents is very high in Dhaka city compared with the other urban centers in Bangladesh as
the city is involved in the highest concentration of economic activities [12]. Fire is considered
as the most common secondary hazard of earthquake [11]. The Great Hansin Earthquake at
Kobe, Japan was followed by the ignition of over 300 fires within minutes of the earthquake
[23].

It is important to assess the integrated vulnerability of earthquake and fire because of their
close association. A number of researches have been carried out on earthquake and fire in Old
Dhaka City Corporation (DCC). About 53% buildings of Ward 68 (Old DCC) are vulnerable to
earthquake [14]. In a study, Old DCC is categorized into different fire hazard zones according
to the frequency of fire incidence [2]. A study showed that most of the buildings in Ward 72 in
Old Dhaka are moderately vulnerable to fire [19]. But none of the studies focused the
integrated vulnerability of earthquake and fire hazard. In this research, an integrated
vulnerability assessment will be conducted incorporating both of earthquake and fire hazard.
The analysis of vulnerability situation of Dhaka city due to earthquake and fire hazard is the
prime concern of this research. Social vulnerability contributes a lot to the overall vulnerable
condition. So the objectives of this paper are: (i) To assess earthquake and fire hazard
vulnerability of a selected ward of Dhaka city, and (ii) To incorporate social vulnerability with
physical vulnerability for measuring overall vulnerability.

In this article, the methodology of three different vulnerability assessments and the way of
combining the results of the assessments to develop composite vulnerability score of the study
area has been described. Then the results have been analyzed and represented in form of
maps. Three different map layers using ArcGIS 10 using the results of earthquake
vulnerability assessment, fire hazard vulnerability assessment and social vulnerability
assessment have been produced. Then the first two layers have been combined to create
physical vulnerability map which has been combined later with the social vulnerability layer to
develop composite vulnerability map. The final map layer shows different categories of
vulnerable buildings in the study area and its hotspots.

Section snippets

Selection of the study area

Ward No. 29 of DSCC is selected for the vulnerability assessment of fire and earthquake in this
research. This ward is one of the oldest areas in the city with 58,233 populations [5] in 0.457
square kilometer area [20]. According to the Map 3.1, the study area is located in zone 2 with
earthquake intensity of IX [18]. About 27–30% building will be destroyed completely if a 7.5-
magnitude earthquake hits in the study area [24]. So a small scale earthquake may cause
disaster in this ward. This…

Analysis and findings

Data analysis contains three vulnerability assessments: earthquake, fire and social. Details of
each part are presented below:…
Major findings

This part concludes the research by proposing some recommendations on the basis of the
major findings of the vulnerability assessment of earthquake and fire hazard incorporating
social vulnerability. Major findings of the research are described as follow.…

Conclusion
Vulnerability assessment is a tool of decision-making of specific stakeholders about options
for responding and adapting to the effects of hazard. In this research, vulnerability assessment
of earthquake and fire hazard in a selected area in Dhaka city has been carried out
incorporating social issues. Analyzing different map layers produced from the findings of the
vulnerability assessment, one can understand the earthquake vulnerability scenario, fire
hazard vulnerability scenario and the…

Acknowledgement
This article is a part of research work of master's thesis conducted by the first author under
co-supervision of second and third authors. Bangladesh University of Engineering and
Technology (BUET) funded the research as a part of author's Master's Degree.…

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