GMT Traffic Study - 1 2022

Consultancy Service for Concept Design Review &
Construction Supervision of
Design and Build of Gore-Masha-Tepu Road Project
Contract No.: S/90/ICB/RP/Ex-ImBK/2006EFY
TRAFFIC SURVEY AND ANALYSIS REPORT
February 2022
Design and Build of Gore-Masha-Tepi Road
(Contract No.: W/53/CB/ExImBK/2010EFY)
Table of Contents
1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 1
1.1 General ............................................................................................................................. 1
1.2 Influence Area .................................................................................................................. 1
1.2.1 Immediate Influence Area......................................................................................... 1
1.2.2 Broader Influence Area ............................................................................................. 2
1.3 Current Status of the Road ............................................................................................... 2
2 Traffic Survey and Analysis ................................................................................................... 3
2.1 Review of Historical Traffic Data .................................................................................... 3
2.2 Classified Traffic Count ................................................................................................... 4
2.2.1 Traffic Survey Program ............................................................................................ 4
2.3 Survey Methodology ........................................................................................................ 7
2.4 Average Daily Traffic ...................................................................................................... 7
2.5 Daily Traffic Variation ................................................................................................... 12
2.6 Current Traffic Composition .......................................................................................... 13
2.7 Computation of AADT (normal traffic) ......................................................................... 14
2.8 Origin-Destinations surveys ........................................................................................... 18
2.9 Generated Traffic ........................................................................................................... 19
3 Traffic Forecast ..................................................................................................................... 19
3.1.1 Analysis Period ....................................................................................................... 19
3.1.2 Traffic Growth ........................................................................................................ 19
3.1.3 Future Traffic .......................................................................................................... 20
4 Equivalent Factor and Cumulative Equivalent Single Axle ................................................. 25
5 Summary and Conclusions ................................................................................................... 31
List of Tables
Traffic Survey and Analysis Report, February 2022 Page i
Table 2-1: Historic Traffic along the Road ..................................................................................... 3

Table 2-2: Types of Survey at Each Station .................................................................................. 5
Table 2-3: Vehicle Classification.................................................................................................... 6
Table 2-4: Night Factor ................................................................................................................... 8
Table 2-5: Average Daily Traffic at Gore Station, January 2022 ................................................... 8
Table 2-6: Average Daily Traffic at Masha Station (Gore Side), January 2022 ............................ 9
Table 2-7: Average Daily Traffic at Masha Station (Tepi Side), January 2022 ............................. 9
Table 2-8: Average Daily Traffic at Gecha Station (Masha Side), January 2022 .......................... 9
Table 2-9: Average Daily Traffic at Gecha Station (Tepi Side), January 2022 ........................... 10
Table 2-10: Average Daily Traffic at Tepi Station, January 2022 ............................................... 10
Table 2-11: Directional Average Daily Traffic, January 2022 ..................................................... 11
Table 2-12: Daily Traffic Variation, January 2022 ...................................................................... 12
Table 2-13: Seasonal Conversion Factors.................................................................................... 15
Table 2-14: Summary of Traffic Flow on the Road, AADT 2022 ............................................... 17
Table 2-15: Directional Split ........................................................................................................ 18
Table 3-1: Estimated Opening Year Traffic on project road (2023) ............................................ 20
Table 3-2: Projected Traffic, AADT 2023 .................................................................................... 21
Table 3-3: Forecasted Traffic, Gore Station ................................................................................. 22
Table 3-4: Forecasted Traffic, Masha Station (Gore Side) ........................................................... 22
Table 3-5: Forecasted Traffic, Masha Station (Tepi Side) ........................................................... 23
Table 3-6: Forecasted Traffic, Gecha Station (Masha Side)......................................................... 23
Table 3-7: Forecasted Traffic, Gecha Station (Tepi Side) ............................................................ 24
Table 3-8: Forecasted Traffic, Tepi Station .................................................................................. 24
Table 4-1: Equivalency Factors for Major Class of Vehicle ........................................................ 25
Table 4-2: Traffic Classes ............................................................................................................. 26
Table 4-3: Cumulative ESA, Gore Station[in Thousand] ............................................................. 27
Table 4-4: Cumulative ESA, Masha Station, Gore Side [in Thousand] ....................................... 28
Table 4-5: Cumulative ESA, Masha Station, Tepi Side [in Thousand] ........................................ 28
Traffic Survey and Analysis Report, February 2022 Page ii

Table 4-6: Cumulative ESA, Gecha Station, Masha Side [in Thousand] ..................................... 29
Table 4-7: Cumulative ESA, Gecha Station, Tepi Side [in Thousand] ........................................ 30
Table 4-8: Cumulative ESA, Tepi Station [in Thousand]............................................................. 30
Table 5-1: Summary of total CESA on the project road as per the Present Study ....................... 31
Table 5-2: Comparisons of Cumulative Equivalent Standard Axle, Considering the current and
previous traffic counts................................................................................................................... 32
List of Figures
Figure 2-1: Location of Traffic & O-D stations.............................................................................. 6
Figure 2-2: Daily Current Traffic Variation ................................................................................. 13
Figure 2-3: Current Traffic Composition………………………………………………………...13
Figure 2-4: Traffic Composition ................................................................................................... 17
List of Annex
Annexure 1: Traffic Count Survey Format
Annexure 2: OD Survey Format
Annexure 3: Traffic Survey Data
Traffic Survey and Analysis Report, February 2022 Page iii

1 Introduction
1.1 General
As per the Service Contract of the project, detailed field and office traffic studies are required to
be conducted semi-annually. As an integral part of this requirement, the study was made at Gore,
Masha, Gecha and Tepi stations for the period from 22 to 28 January 2022.
The traffic study has been undertaken to form a basis for estimating the current traffic using the
project road as well as for forecasting future traffic demand. Findings have been drawn from
analysis of survey data set would form relevant inputs to setting of appropriate design standard,
and pavement design.
In project of such a kind, traffic estimation in respect of composition and growth requires
detailed studies and investigation to take into account the various factors that influence. In
consideration of this, the study included:
 Classified traffic volume count survey

 Collection of historical data on traffic growth in the project around
 Origin-Destination survey
 Determination of the spectrum of axle loads
The details on traffic surveys and results from its analysis are presented in subsequent sections.
1.2 Influence Area
The current transport demand characteristics have been classified into immediate and broader
influence area.
1.2.1 Immediate Influence Area

While linking Jimma –Gore - Gambella road to Jimma – Mizan -Tepi asphalt road, the project
road will create access to settlements, Kebeles and Woredas along the route in addition to
enhancing the socioeconomic activity in the region.
The first source of the traffic on the project road, which is a major one, is due to the transport
demand of the immediate influence area. The immediate influence areas are Gore & Tepi, Town
of Illubabor Zone of the Oromia Region and Sheka Zone of the SNNP regional state,
respectively. The transport demand of the immediate influence area is mostly influenced by the
local socio-economic characteristics and availability of social services and amenities. This
includes:
Traffic Survey and Analysis Report, February 2022 Page 1 /30
 transportation of agricultural crops and forest products (coffee, tea, turmeric and
timber) to the market,
 transportation of consumer goods from main markets.
 transportation of people to the social services available at Tepi.
 some occasional trips made by local administrative services and NGOs.
1.2.2 Broader Influence Area

The second source of project road traffic will be result of diverted traffic route of Bedele -
Jimma-Tepi road. Presently due to unpaved road and uneven terrain traffic coming from Bedele
to Tepi avoid Bedele-Gore-Masha-Tepi road. The project road is expected to provide some
reduction in travel distance for all traffic coming from Bedele to Tepi and its vicinity. Presently
the travel distance from Bedele to Tepi using alternative route via Jimma is around 365 km; with
an average travel speed of 55 km/h it is about 7 hours journey. With the project road, the travel
distance will be reduced by 282 km and travel time will be reduced by 4.30 hours with an
average travel speed of 65 km/h.
1.3 Current Status of the Road

The project road, which has graveled wearing course surfacing, passes through mainly
rolling/mountainous terrain.
The surface condition of the existing road is in fair to poor, only locally good condition.
Moreover, the existing gravel road surface on some road sections is widely in a condition which
needs major maintenance and repair where gravel loss, erosion gullies, potholes and depressions
have been observed. Based on the site observation, the possible causes of distresses are mainly
related to loss of drainage features and lack of maintenance. The section ahead of Gecha, km90,
is fairly good and is covered with gravely sand material of basaltic origin.
Since construction activities is underway, construction traffic also affects the road condition.
The activities stretch in majority part of the first 70km, except the town, where the road
constructed to subgrade level. Those areas covered by subbase are very limited and hence
transportation in wet season is very cumbersome.

2 Traffic Survey and Analysis
2.1 Review of Historical Traffic Data

ERA undertakes a systematic program of traffic counting three times a year ((Season 1: January -
April, Season 2: May- August, and Season 3: September – December, representing the high,
medium and low seasons, respectively) for selected roads on the main road network. These
comprise 7-day manual classified counts, including two night counts. Estimates of average
annual daily traffic (AADT) are published regularly for each road section, incorporating
adjustments for night traffic and seasonal variations.
Three counting stations have been identified relevant to the project road: Station 817(Gore
Town), Station 818-N (Masha to Gore side), Station 818-S (Masha to Tepi side), and Station 807
(Tepi junction). The data is available from 2002 to 2018, and extracted for the recent years only
as summarized below.
Table 2-1: Historic Traffic along the Road

Cycle Land Small Large Small Medium Heavy Truck
Year Station Location Direction Car Total
Period Rover Bus Bus Truck Truck Truck Trailer
818-N MASHA GORE 0 46 18 2 40 34 16 3 159
1 818-S MASHA TEPI 0 50 27 2 47 35 22 4 187
807 TEPI JUNCTION
TEPI 6 49 71 33 44 55 31 14 303
818-N MASHA GORE 0 46 18 2 40 34 16 3 159
2016 2 818-S MASHA TEPI 0 50 27 2 47 35 22 4 187
807 TEPI JUNCTION
TEPI 6 49 71 33 44 55 31 14 303
818-N MASHA GORE 0 46 18 2 40 34 16 3 159
3 818-S MASHA TEPI 0 50 27 2 47 35 22 4 187
807 TEPI JUNCTION
TEPI 6 49 71 33 44 55 31 14 303
818-N MASHA GORE 0 77 31 8 98 95 73 26 408
1 818-S MASHA TEPI 0 71 41 14 74 63 55 22 340
807 TEPI JUNCTION
TEPI 1 58 39 11 87 61 62 14 333
818-N MASHA GORE 0 24 13 8 50 25 15 2 137
2017 2 818-S MASHA TEPI 0 32 22 20 65 28 21 1 189
807 TEPI JUNCTION
TEPI 0 12 65 33 34 45 49 14 252
818-N MASHA GORE 9 18 24 13 52 41 28 1 186
3 818-S MASHA TEPI 7 16 28 12 72 33 30 1 199
807 TEPI JUNCTION
TEPI 0 44 48 22 91 93 77 35 410
818-N MASHA GORE 1 58 39 2 54 49 32 6 241
1 818-S MASHA TEPI 1 50 32 5 52 38 24 7 209
807 TEPI JUNCTION
TEPI 18 46 67 120 62 79 37 36 465
818-N MASHA GORE 0 25 14 8 53 26 16 2 144
2018 2 818-S MASHA TEPI 0 34 23 21 68 29 22 1 198
807 TEPI JUNCTION
TEPI 0 13 68 35 36 47 51 15 265
818-N MASHA GORE 0 62 62 10 75 89 57 26 381
3 818-S MASHA TEPI 0 68 63 11 72 87 51 27 379
807 TEPI JUNCTION
TEPI 0 18 67 1 5 40 19 3 153

The above data is used in the analysis of seasonal variation during the period of a year. A
program of traffic surveys was carried out on the project road to establish more precisely the
present levels of motorized traffic on the road.
2.2 Classified Traffic Count
2.2.1 Traffic Survey Program

Locations of traffic surveys have been selected based on understanding of the transport demand
characteristics and existing & forthcoming road network as well as consideration of the
following aspects:
 to represent homogeneous traffic section

 to be outside urban and local influence area
 to be located at a level with good visibility
The traffic Consultant, divided the project road into two homogenous sections: Gore –Masha and
Masha – Tepi. The recent observation however shows that Gecha is also traffic attraction area.
For this reason, the project road was divided into three homogeneous sections in such a way that
the traffic intensity within a particular section will be more or less uniform. Classified traffic
counts were organized at two selected stations in each section. The locations of the classified
traffic volume count station were identified in such way that these are well away from the town
development and villages/ habitations/ settlements. Data on the number of vehicles of different
categories moving along the road in both directions were noted by enumerators specially trained
for this purpose. Accordingly, the survey stations have been selected on project road as given
below:
 Station 1: Outskirt of Gore Town

 Station 2: Outskirt of Masha Town (two stations: one to Gore side and the other to Tepi
side)
 Station 3: Outskirts of Gecha Town (two stations: one to Masha side and the other to Tepi
side)
 Station 4: Entrance of Tepi Town
The surveys have been conducted from 22 to 28 January 2022 (which corresponds to the high
economic activity season according to ERA’s count programme). Surveys involved:
 Classified link counts for motorised traffic (MT) comprising 7-day.

 Adapting the previous roadside interviews for drivers and passengers on the road (MT) to
establish details of origin and destination - 2 days.

The traffic survey forms used are attached in Annexure 1 and 2. The program of traffic surveys
in established stations is summarized in Table 2.2 below. Also, the figure below shows the
survey locations along the project road/ project influence area.
For detailed passenger and freight traffic analysis purposes, vehicles were classified into
passenger and freight based on the kind of service they rendered. Passenger vehicles were
classified into Car, Utilities, Small Bus and other bigger Buses. Freight vehicles were classified
into Small Truck, Medium Truck, Heavy Truck and Truck Trailer based on their respective load
capacity. The detailed classification of passenger and freight vehicles is based on the vehicle
classes recommended by Ethiopian Roads Authority (ERA) as shown in Table 2.3 below. In
addition motor cycle traffic was included.
Table 2-2: Types of Survey at Each Station
Type of Survey Duration of

Objectives Survey Period
Survey Locations Survey
 CVC-1-near
Gore Town
1. To determine total 22nd Jan 2021
 CVC-2-near
traffic flow that is morning 6:00am to
Classified Masha Town 2 days for 24
normal traffic. 28th Jan 2021
Motorized hrs and 5 days
2. To determine peak evening 6:00pm
Traffic Count  CVC-3-near for 12 hrs. on
hourly traffic flow (22nd & 26th 6:00
(MT) Tepi Town each day
3. To classify vehicle am to next day 6:00
type. am)
 CVC-4-near
Gecha Town
1. To assess the origin

and destination of
road users
2 days for 10 OD could not
Interview 2. To collect the • OD-1-near Tepi
hours on each conduct due to the
Survey (INT) information on Town
day security matter
commodity values
passing specified
point of survey

Table 2-3: Vehicle Classification
No. Vehicle Type Vehicle Description

1 Motor cycles
2 Cars Car and small Taxis (4 passenger seats)
4WD cars such as Land Rover, Land Cruiser
3 Utilities
(up to 8 passenger seats)
4 Small Bus Up to 27 passenger Seats
5 Large Buses More than 27 passenger seats
6 Small Truck Jeep, Delivery Van, ISUZU
7 Medium Truck 2 axle, 3-7 tons payload
8 Heavy Trucks 2-3 axle, 7-12 tons payload
More than 3-axle, 22 or more tons (trucks
Truck Trailers/
9 with trailers, tanker trailers and semi-trailers
Articulated Truck
or articulated truck)
TVC-4 TVC-4
Gec
Gecha
Gec
Gecha
Figure 2-1: Location of Traffic & O-D stations

2.3 Survey Methodology

The traffic count survey was conducted for seven consecutive days (2022/01/22 to 2022/01/28 at
each six counting locations for 12 hrs (6:00 A.M to 6:00 A.M) a day. In addition, 12 hour night
traffic counts (6:00 P.M to 6:00 A.M) was conducted for two days in order to establish the night
factor that would be required to determine the 24 hour Average Daily Traffic (ADT) which was
selected January 22(Sat) & 26(Wed). Only day time traffic count was done at Tepi counting
station due to security problem.
The directional classified traffic volume counts, observed at the count stations, have been
analysed to obtain:
 Average Daily Traffic (ADT)

 Daily variation of ADT
 Hourly variation and Peak Hour Factor (PHF)
 Directional distribution
 Traffic composition
2.4 Average Daily Traffic

The Average Daily Traffic (ADT) was determined after the seven days average 12 hour traffic
count was adjusted by the night factor (i.e. multiplying the average 12 hour count for seven days
by the night factor for each type of vehicle) as:
1. Seven day time (12:00 A.M to 12:00P.M) count of each vehicle type was summed up.
2. The sum of day time traffic count of each vehicle type was divided by twelve to get the
average day time traffic (for 12 hours).
3. The average day time traffic was multiplied by the night factor to get the required
Average Daily Traffic (ADT) for 24 hours.
The computation of Average Daily Traffic (AADT) can also be denoted by the following
mathematical relationship.
ADT= (Σ TDTi /7) X NF
Where ADT = Average Daily Traffic
TDTi = Total two way daily traffic count of day i (12 hrs) of the 7 days with
respect to each vehicle type
NF= Night Factor

Night Factor (NF) is needed to adjust the average day time traffic (12 hours) in order to estimate
the average day time traffic in a way that reflects 24 hours traffic flow on the road under
consideration. The night factor for each vehicle type has been developed after dividing the 24
hour traffic by the day time (12 hour) traffic recorded on the night time traffic count days. The
night factor estimates for the analysis of each section of the road traffic are as shown in Table 2.4.
At present there is no night time traffic at Tepi station because of the state of emergency. As
such, estimation is given based on limited available data and observation of the socioeconomic
activity in the area.
The summary of ADT, in terms of each class, vehicles at the six count stations on the existing
road are given in below Table 2.5 through 2.10. The directional distribution is shown in Table
2.11. Only day time traffic count was done near Tepi town due to security problem.
Table 2-4: Night Factor
Truck &
Station Car Utilities S/Bus L/Bus S/Truck M/Truck H/Truck
Trailer
Gore 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.0
Masha -Gore Side 1.0 1.7 1.9 1.0 1.7 1.0 1.0 1.0
Masha -Tepi Side 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.9 1.0 1.0
Gecha-Masha Side 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.3
Gecha-Tepi Side 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0
Tepi 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0
Table 2-5: Average Daily Traffic at Gore Station, January 2022
Truck &
Date Car Utilities S/Bus L/Bus S/Truck M/Truck H/Truck Total
Trailer
22/01/22 1 27 48 0 29 9 2 0
22/01/23 1 24 11 0 23 7 2 0
22/01/24 2 17 19 0 22 1 7 0
22/01/25 2 39 22 0 28 1 7 5
22/01/26 0 22 17 0 22 6 5 1
22/01/27 1 37 15 0 21 3 6 1
22/01/28 1 32 22 0 24 2 5 3
Average 1 28 22 0 24 4 5 1
NF 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.0
ADT 1 36 22 0 37 6 9 1 114

Table 2-6: Average Daily Traffic at Masha Station (Gore Side), January 2022
Truck &
Trailer
22/01/22 0 30 4 0 7 2 0 0
22/01/23 0 66 17 0 3 1 0 2
22/01/24 0 27 7 0 5 0 0 0
22/01/25 0 25 27 0 10 3 2 1
22/01/26 0 13 4 0 10 1 1 0
22/01/27 0 26 6 0 9 2 3 0
22/01/28 0 13 13 0 16 0 2 0
Average 0 29 11 0 9 1 1 0
NF 1.0 1.7 1.9 1.0 1.7 1.0 1.0 1.0
ADT 0 50 21 0 15 1 1 0 88
Table 2-7: Average Daily Traffic at Masha Station (Gecha Side), January 2022
Truck &
Trailer
22/01/22 2 11 28 0 13 2 0 0
22/01/23 0 16 13 0 7 2 1 0
22/01/24 0 24 14 0 9 2 0 2
22/01/25 0 26 13 0 7 2 1 1
22/01/26 0 19 17 0 11 1 0 0
22/01/27 0 19 10 0 8 2 1 0
22/01/28 0 25 11 0 24 6 6 0
Average 0 20 15 0 11 2 1 0
NF 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.9 1.0 1.0
ADT 0 26 15 0 16 5 1 0 63
Table 2-8: Average Daily Traffic at Gecha Station (Masha Side), January 2022
Truck &
Trailer
22/01/22 1 17 37 0 18 4 4 1
22/01/23 0 4 16 0 21 1 1 0
22/01/24 0 24 18 0 11 4 1 2
22/01/25 0 34 34 0 20 3 4 3
22/01/26 0 18 19 5 33 3 3 0
22/01/27 0 36 24 0 11 8 2 1
22/01/28 0 28 23 0 47 6 7 11
Average 0 23 24 1 23 4 3 3
NF 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.3
ADT 0 28 30 1 29 5 5 3 100

Table 2-9: Average Daily Traffic at Gecha Station (Tepi Side), January 2022
Truck &
Trailer
22/01/22 0 34 63 0 24 4 0 3
22/01/23 2 37 53 0 38 11 7 0
22/01/24 0 51 47 0 33 4 2 6
22/01/25 0 56 68 0 38 3 3 15
22/01/26 1 69 55 0 54 15 5 12
22/01/27 1 37 31 2 20 9 0 3
22/01/28 2 40 36 0 41 13 4 4
Average 1 46 50 0 35 8 3 6
NF 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0
ADT 1 57 62 0 48 11 3 6 188
Table 2-10: Average Daily Traffic at Tepi Station, January 2022
Truck &
Trailer
22/01/22 17 38 192 9 78 26 37 10
22/01/23 20 35 139 10 62 24 25 8
22/01/24 12 48 141 9 63 20 53 8
22/01/25 14 65 131 7 57 35 64 22
22/01/26 40 62 157 29 81 28 61 35
22/01/27 18 73 122 16 67 38 71 32
22/01/28 23 64 165 14 56 38 62 29
Average 21 55 150 13 66 30 53 21
NF 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0
ADT 29 59 158 13 71 34 59 21 445

Table 2-11: Directional Average Daily Traffic, January 2022

Truck &
Station Direction Car Utilities S/Bus L/Bus S/Truck M/Truck H/Truck Total
Trailer
G-M 1 20 13 0 19 4 6 1 64
Gore M-G 1 16 10 0 18 2 3 1 50
Total 1 36 22 0 37 6 9 1 114
G-M 0 25 11 0 7 1 1 0 45
Masha-
M-G 0 25 10 0 7 0 0 0 44
Gore Side
Total 0 50 21 0 15 1 1 0 88
GE-M 0 11 7 0 6 2 0 0 27
Masha -
M-GE 0 15 8 0 10 2 1 0 36
Tepi Side
Total 0 26 15 0 16 5 1 0 63
Gecha - M-GE 0 15 15 1 14 3 2 2 52
Masha GE-M 0 13 15 0 14 2 2 1 48
Side Total 0 28 30 1 29 5 5 3 100
T-GE 0 28 29 0 25 6 2 3 93
Gecha -
GE-T 1 29 33 0 23 5 1 4 96
Tepi Side
Total 1 57 62 0 48 11 3 6 188
G-T 13 27 74 6 32 16 28 11 208
Tepi T-G 16 32 85 7 39 18 31 9 237
Total 29 59 158 13 71 34 59 21 445
G=Gore M=Masha GE=Gecha T=Tepi
From the above tables it appears that:
 NFs for small truck and medium trucks are higher which may attribute to the routine
practice that these vehicles are driven during night time.
 The current ADT at Tepi station is higher than the others while the lowest number is
registered at Masha counting station (Tepi side).
 The number of cars operating on the project road is very small except at Tepi station
where limited numbers observed.
 Similarly, except at Tepi station, there is no operating truck and trailer on the project
road which may attribute to the poor existing condition of the road and security in the
area.
 Very high proportion of the heavy trucks and truck-trailers is originated from the
recently opened Ethiopian Commodity Exchange (ECX) office around km138. ECX
creates market platform and warehousing services for small scale farmers whose main
agricultural product in the area is coffee.
 The traffic movement is dominated by utilities and small buses.
 The overall traffic registered is less than expected which may attributed to the current
poor condition of the road as results of construction activities and lack of maintenance.

 All counting stations show that the project corridor traffic volume is more or less
evenly distributed in both directions.
2.5 Daily Traffic Variation

Daily variation of traffic at each count locations is summarized in Table 2.12 and pictorially
shown in Figure 2.2 below. From the table and figure it appears that there is high daily variation
of operating vehicles. The variation is irregular but generally the total volume is higher on
Saturday and Wednesday, which are market days.
Table 2-12: Daily Traffic Variation, January 2022
Gecha-
Masha- Masha- Gecha-
Date Day Gore Masha Tepi
Gore Side Tepi Side Tepi Side
Side
22/01/22 Sat. 147 74 66 101 160 442
22/01/23 Sun. 93 155 48 53 186 353
22/01/24 Mon. 92 69 63 74 178 384
22/01/25 Tues. 138 118 62 121 226 430
22/01/26 Wed. 99 49 59 99 263 540
22/01/27 The 113 77 50 101 128 476
22/01/28 Fri. 117 77 94 153 176 492
Average 114 88 63 100 188 445
• After considering of night factor

160 180
Gore Masha-Gore Side
140 160 Masha-Tepi Side
140
120
120
100
Daily Traffic
Daily Traffic
100
80
80
60
60
40 40
20 20
0 0
Sat. Sun. Mon. Tues. Wed. The Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon. Tues. Wed. The Fri.
280 Gecha-Masha Side 600

260 550 Tepi
240 Gecha-Tepi Side
500
220
450
200
180 400
Daily Traffic
Daily Traffic
160 350
140 300
120 250
100 200
80
150
60
40 100
20 50
0 0
Sat. Sun. Mon. Tues. Wed. The Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon. Tues. Wed. The Fri.
Figure 2-2: Daily Current Traffic Variatio
2.6 Current Traffic Composition

Analysis has been carried out to find out the current composition of total traffic and the results
are illustrated in figure below. As depicted in Figures 2.3 below, the traffic movement along the
road is dominated by utilities, small bus, and small trucks which collectively account more than
85% of the total traffic along the road except Tepi area where the number reduced to around 65%.

Gore Masha-Gore Side

1%
Car 1% Car
1% 1% 1% 0%
6% Utilities Utilities
8% S/Bus
S/Bus 0% 17%
32%
L/Bus L/Bus
S/Truck S/Truck
56%
33% 24% M/Truck
M/Truck
19% H/Truck H/Truck
Truck & Trailer Truck & Trailer
0%
Masha-Tepi Side Gecha-Masha Side

0% Car Car
2% 1% 5% 3% 0%
Utilities 5% Utilities
7% S/Bus S/Bus
28%
41% L/Bus L/Bus
25%
S/Truck 29% S/Truck
M/Truck M/Truck
H/Truck 29% H/Truck
24%
0%
1%
Gecha-Tepi Side Tepi

Car Car
2% 3% 1%
Utilities Utilities
6% 5% 7%
S/Bus 13% 13% S/Bus
30%
L/Bus 8% L/Bus
25%
S/Truck S/Truck
M/Truck 16% M/Truck
35%
H/Truck H/Truck
33%
0%
3%
Figure 2-3: Current Traffic Composition
2.7 Computation of AADT (normal traffic)

Normal traffic represents the traffic, which would in any event occur if no improvement is made.
Normal traffic has been computed based on classified traffic counts made by the consultant.

The traffic counts have been carried out for 12 hours (06:00-18:00 hrs.) for 5 days respectively at
the selected survey stations. Moreover, a 24-hour (06:00-06:00 hrs.) count has been carried out
for two days at the same survey stations for capturing night traffic movement (06:00pm-06:00
am). The average 24-hour to 12-hour traffic flow ratio by vehicle class has been then computed
and applied to the daily counts to compute the daily 24-hour traffic volumes for 7 days (as
applicable), which have been then averaged to compute the average daily traffic (ADT), as
presented in the previous section.
As stated earlier, ERA regularly carries out traffic counts three times a year, in February, July
and November; representing the high, low and medium business seasons respectively. This is
useful to establish seasonal factor required to estimate the Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT)
that would allow taking the variations in the traffic pattern over the different seasons of the year
into account.
The Seasonal Conversion Factor (SCF) has been calculated based on ERA’s three cycle traffic
data over the last most recent three years where data is made available, i.e. between 2016 and
2018. The three cycle traffic data on Masha and Tepi stations which have direct influence on the
project, have been utilized. The traffic count survey in connection to this study was conducted
during the week at the end of January and hence it is under the category of the first cycle period
where ERA is conducting regular traffic surveys every year. The seasonal conversion factor is
presented on Table 2.13.
Table 2-13: Seasonal Conversion Factors
Truck &
Year Cycle Car Utilities S/Bus L/Bus S/Truck M/Truck H/Truck
Trailer
1 0 46 18 2 40 34 16 3
2016 2 0 46 18 2 40 34 16 3
3 0 46 18 2 40 34 16 3
1 0 77 31 8 98 95 73 26
2017 2 0 24 13 8 50 25 15 2
3 9 18 24 13 52 41 28 1
1 1 58 39 12 54 49 32 6
2018 2 0 25 14 8 53 26 16 2
3 0 62 62 10 75 89 57 26
SCF (1st Cycle) 1.0 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7
a) At Masha (Gore Side, Station 818 N)

Truck &
Trailer
1 0 50 27 2 47 35 22 4
2016 2 0 50 27 2 47 35 22 4
3 0 50 27 2 47 35 22 4
1 0 71 41 14 74 63 55 22
2017 2 0 32 22 20 65 28 21 1
3 7 16 28 12 72 33 30 1
1 1 50 32 15 52 38 24 7
2018 2 0 34 23 21 68 29 22 1
3 0 68 63 11 72 87 51 27
SCF (1st Cycle) 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7
b) At Masha (Tepi Side, Station 818 S)

Truck &
Trailer
1 6 49 71 33 44 55 31 14
2016 2 6 49 71 33 44 55 31 14
3 6 49 71 33 44 55 31 14
1 1 58 39 11 87 61 62 14
2017 2 0 12 65 33 34 45 49 14
3 0 44 48 22 91 93 77 35
1 18 46 67 120 62 79 37 36
2018 2 0 13 68 35 36 47 51 15
3 0 18 67 1 5 40 19 3
SCF (1st Cycle) 1.0 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8
C) At Tepi (Station 807)

*Those highlighted indicate outlier numbers which are adjusted to the average
As stated above, the majority proportion of the current heavy trucks and truck &trailers counted
at Tepi station is originated from the local ECX workplace. From the site observation and the
traffic record at Gecha station (Tepi side), it can be estimated that truck traffic operating on the
road, other than the ECX, is not greater than one-third of the total. Moreover, it is learned that
ECX traffic operates mainly for four months during a year when there exists coffee harvesting.
In account of this, the seasonal conversion factor computed above applied for the normal traffic
only. The rest has been multiplied by 0.33 factor (4 months/12 months).
The AADT has been then derived by multiplying these factors with ADT obtained as described
in previous section. The computed AADT values by station are summarized in Table 2.14 below.
The directional traffic is also presented on Table 2.15.

Table 2-14: Summary of Traffic Flow on the Road, AADT 2022
Truck &
Station AADT Car Utilities S/Bus L/Bus S/Truck M/Truck H/Truck Total
Trailer
ADT 1 36 22 0 37 6 9 1 114
Gore SCF 1.0 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7
AADT 1 27 20 0 33 5 7 1 94
ADT 0 50 21 0 15 1 1 0 88
Masha -Gore
SCF 1.0 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7
Side
AADT 0 37 19 0 13 1 1 0 71
ADT 0 26 15 0 16 5 1 0 63
Masha -Tepi
SCF 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7
Side
AADT 0 21 15 0 16 4 1 0 58
ADT 0 28 30 1 29 5 5 3 100
Gecha-Masha
SCF 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7
Side
AADT 0 23 29 1 30 5 4 2 94
ADT 1 57 62 0 48 11 3 6 188
Gecha-Tepi
SCF 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7
Side
AADT 1 47 60 0 50 10 3 4 175
ADT 29 59 158 13 71 34 59 21 445
Tepi SCF 1.0 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8
AADT 29 44 169 9 55 31 31 11 379
Total Average AADT 5 33 52 2 33 9 8 3 145
Composition % 4% 23% 36% 1% 23% 6% 5% 2%
Figure 2-4: Traffic Composition after considering the seasonal factor

Table 2-15: Directional Split
Truck & Directional

Station Direction Car Utilities S/Bus L/Bus S/Truck M/Truck H/Truck Total
Trailer Split, %
G-M 1 15 11 0 17 4 5 0 53 56
Gore
M-G 1 12 9 0 16 2 2 0 41 44
Masha-Gore G-M 0 18 10 0 6 1 1 0 36 51
Side M-G 0 19 9 0 6 0 0 0 35 49
Masha -Tepi GE-M 0 9 7 0 6 2 0 0 25 43
Side M-GE 0 12 8 0 10 2 1 0 33 57
Gecha - Masha M-GE 0 12 14 1 15 3 2 1 49 52
Side GE-M 0 11 14 0 15 2 2 1 45 48
Gecha - Tepi T-GE 0 23 28 0 26 5 2 2 87 49
Side GE-T 1 24 32 0 24 5 1 3 89 51
G-T 13 20 79 4 25 15 16 6 177 47
Tepi
T-G 16 24 90 5 30 16 17 5 203 53
From the above tables it appears that
 as expected, SCF is mostly less than one which shows variations in the traffic pattern
over the different seasons of the year as well as the count duration was when high socio-
economic is underway.
 there is no appreciable truck and truck trailer traffic in the corridor which may attribute
to the existing condition of the road.
 the traffic movement along the project road is dominated by utilities, small bus, and
small trucks which collectively account for 82 percent of the total traffic.
the direction wise movement of traffic flow reflects that traffic volume is more or less evenly
distributed in both directions at both locations on the project corridor
2.8 Origin-Destinations surveys

It was pointed out that those traffic travel from Gambela, Gore and Bedelle to Shehenda, Tepi
and Mizan via Jimma or vise versa likely to be diverted to the project road. Clearly it is likely
that the reduction in trip time and length following improvement of the project road would
generate significant growth in divertible traffic. Therefore, an assessment is required of how
much existing and potential traffic might divert to the new route.
Subsequently, the most favourable station that assists to capture almost all the “would be
diverted” vehicles yet avoid redundant counts (so called double counts) Tepi, and hence planned
to conduct OD survey for two days on this station. However, the survey could not be conducted
due to the security matter. For this reason and on the basis of the fact that the Design Consultant
derived the potential of divertible traffic from detailed OD survey, we apply the same parameter
for the present analysis into two forms:
 Traffic that diverts to the project road from an alternative route while keeping the same
origin and destination accounts 10.5%; and
 Change in modal choice in which low cost movements are replaced by (diverted to) higher.
It is the change in mode, rather than the quantity of trips, however, which is generated by
improvement and taken to be 1.5%.
2.9 Generated Traffic

Generated traffic arises due to a decrease in transport costs, i.e. this is traffic associated with existing
users driving more frequently or driving further than before, or with new trips being undertaken.
The design Consultant estimated generated traffic of 10% of NT for the project road after making detailed
analysis on transport cost. The same has been adopted for the present analysis.
3 Traffic Forecast
3.1.1 Analysis Period
As regards to the function of the project road in the overall network, its functional class has been
assigned as link road. The applicable appraisal period is 20 years and consequently the period
covered by the traffic forecasts is from 2023-2042 according to RFC (request for construction)
pavement design report. However, construction delay is expected and hence analysis extended to
2043.
3.1.2 Traffic Growth

Traffic is generated as a result of the interaction of a number of contributory factors. Forecasts of
traffic have therefore to be dependent on the forecasts of factors such as population, gross
domestic product, vehicle ownership, agricultural output, fuel consumption etc. Future pattern of
change in these factors can be estimated with a limited degree of accuracy and hence the
forecasting of future traffic levels cannot be precise. As such, traffic forecasting, i.e., estimation
of growth, is at best approximate.
Taking this into consideration, and the supervision Consultant's past records, the traffic growth
factors estimated by the design Consultant has been found rational and hence used hereafter
without any revision as.
 For short range, to Year 2023: 5%

 Medium run, to Year 2027: 8.5%
 Long run, to Year 2043 : 8%

3.1.3 Future Traffic
Traffic projection exercise for the project road for the appraisal period, i.e. 2023-2043, would
consist of projecting the traffic opening year AADT (including normal, generated and diverted
traffic) to the future by using year-to-year normal growth rates.
Table 3-1: Estimated Opening Year Traffic on project road (2023)
% share
Normal Traffic 80%
Generated (10% of NT) 8%
Diverted
- Normal 10.5%
- Modal Transfer 1.5%
Total AADT 100%

Table 3-2: Projected Traffic, AADT 2023

Truck &
Traffic Car Utilities S/Bus L/Bus S/Truck M/Truck H/Truck Total
Trailer
Gore Station
Normal 2 28 21 0 34 5 7 1 98
Diverted
0 3 2 0 4 1 1 0 10
(Normal), 10.5%
Diverted
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
(Modal), 1.5%
Generated, 8% 0 2 2 0 3 0 1 0 8
AADT 2 34 25 0 41 6 8 1 118
Masha (Gore Side)
Normal 0 39 20 0 13 1 1 0 74
Diverted
0 4 2 0 1 0 0 0 8
(Normal), 10.5%
Diverted
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
(Modal), 1.5%
Generated, 8% 0 3 2 0 1 0 0 0 6
AADT 0 46 24 0 16 1 1 0 89
Masha (Tepi Side)
Normal 0 22 16 0 17 4 1 0 61
Diverted
0 2 2 0 2 0 0 0 6
(Normal), 10.5%
Diverted
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
(Modal), 1.5%
Generated, 8% 0 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 5
AADT 0 26 19 0 21 5 1 0 73
Gecha (Masha Side)
Normal 0 24 30 1 32 5 4 2 99
Diverted
0 3 3 0 3 1 0 0 10
(Normal), 10.5%
Diverted
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
(Modal), 1.5%
Generated, 8% 0 2 2 0 3 0 0 0 8
AADT 0 29 36 1 38 6 5 3 118
Gecha (Tepi Side)
Normal 1 49 63 0 53 10 3 5 184
Diverted
0 5 7 0 6 1 0 0 19
(Normal), 10.5%
Diverted
0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 3
(Modal), 1.5%
Generated, 8% 0 4 5 0 4 1 0 0 15
AADT 1 59 75 0 63 13 4 6 221
Tepi Station
Normal 30 46 177 9 58 33 34 11 398
Diverted
3 5 19 1 6 3 4 1 42
(Normal), 10.5%
Diverted
0 1 3 0 1 0 1 0 6
(Modal), 1.5%
Generated, 8% 2 4 14 1 5 3 3 1 32
AADT 37 55 213 11 69 39 41 13 478

Table 3-3: Forecasted Traffic, Gore Station

Truck &
Year Car Utilities S/Bus L/Bus S/Truck M/Truck H/Truck Total
Trailer
2024 2 37 27 0 45 7 9 1 128
2025 2 40 29 0 48 8 10 1 139
2026 2 43 32 0 52 8 11 2 151
2027 3 47 35 0 57 9 12 2 163
2028 3 51 37 0 62 10 13 2 176
2029 3 55 40 0 66 10 14 2 190
2030 3 59 44 0 72 11 15 2 206
2031 3 64 47 0 77 12 16 2 222
2032 4 69 51 0 84 13 17 3 240
2033 4 74 55 0 90 14 19 3 259
2034 4 80 59 0 98 15 20 3 280
2035 5 87 64 0 105 16 22 3 302
2036 5 94 69 0 114 18 23 3 326
2037 6 101 75 0 123 19 25 4 353
2038 6 109 81 0 133 21 27 4 381
2039 6 118 87 0 143 22 29 4 411
2040 7 127 94 0 155 24 32 5 444
2041 8 137 102 0 167 26 34 5 480
2042 8 148 110 0 181 28 37 5 518
2043 9 160 119 0 195 31 40 6 559
Table 3-4: Forecasted Traffic, Masha Station (Gore Side)
Truck &
Trailer
2024 0 50 26 0 18 1 1 0 97
2025 0 55 28 0 19 2 1 0 105
2026 0 59 30 0 21 2 1 0 114
2027 0 64 33 0 22 2 1 1 124
2028 0 70 36 0 24 2 2 1 133
2029 0 75 39 0 26 2 2 1 144
2030 0 81 42 0 28 2 2 1 156
2031 0 88 45 0 30 2 2 1 168
2032 0 95 49 0 33 3 2 1 182
2033 0 102 52 0 35 3 2 1 196
2034 0 110 57 0 38 3 3 1 212
2035 0 119 61 0 41 3 3 1 229
2036 0 129 66 0 45 4 3 1 247
2037 0 139 71 0 48 4 3 1 267
2038 0 150 77 0 52 4 3 1 288
2039 0 162 83 0 56 5 4 1 311
2040 0 175 90 0 61 5 4 1 336
2041 0 189 97 0 66 5 4 2 363
2042 0 204 105 0 71 6 5 2 392
2043 0 221 113 0 77 6 5 2 423

Table 3-5: Forecasted Traffic, Masha Station (Tepi Side)
Truck &
Trailer
2024 0 29 20 0 23 6 2 0 80
2025 0 31 22 0 24 6 2 0 86
2026 0 34 24 0 26 7 2 0 94
2027 0 37 26 0 29 7 2 1 102
2028 1 40 28 0 31 8 2 1 110
2029 1 43 30 0 34 9 2 1 119
2030 1 46 33 0 36 9 3 1 128
2031 1 50 35 0 39 10 3 1 138
2032 1 54 38 0 42 11 3 1 149
2033 1 58 41 0 46 12 3 1 161
2034 1 63 44 0 49 13 3 1 174
2035 1 68 48 0 53 14 4 1 188
2036 1 73 52 0 57 15 4 1 203
2037 1 79 56 0 62 16 4 1 220
2038 1 86 60 0 67 17 5 1 237
2039 1 92 65 0 72 19 5 1 256
2040 1 100 70 0 78 20 5 1 277
2041 1 108 76 0 84 22 6 2 299
2042 2 116 82 0 91 23 6 2 323
2043 2 126 88 0 98 25 7 2 348
Table 3-6: Forecasted Traffic, Gecha Station (Masha Side)
Truck &
Trailer
2024 0 31 39 1 41 7 6 3 128
2025 0 34 42 1 45 7 6 4 139
2026 0 37 46 1 49 8 7 4 151
2027 0 40 50 1 53 8 7 4 164
2028 0 43 54 1 57 9 8 4 177
2029 0 47 58 2 62 10 8 5 191
2030 0 50 63 2 66 11 9 5 207
2031 0 54 68 2 72 11 10 6 223
2032 0 59 73 2 77 12 11 6 241
2033 0 63 79 2 84 13 11 7 260
2034 0 69 86 2 90 14 12 7 281
2035 0 74 93 2 98 16 13 8 304
2036 0 80 100 3 105 17 14 8 328
2037 1 86 108 3 114 18 16 9 354
2038 1 93 117 3 123 20 17 10 382
2039 1 101 126 3 133 21 18 10 413
2040 1 109 136 4 143 23 20 11 446
2041 1 118 147 4 155 25 21 12 482
2042 1 127 159 4 167 27 23 13 520
2043 1 137 171 5 181 29 25 14 562
Table 3-7: Forecasted Traffic, Gecha Station (Tepi Side)
Truck &
Trailer
2024 1 64 82 0 69 14 4 6 240
2025 1 70 89 0 74 15 5 7 260
2026 1 75 96 0 81 16 5 7 282
2027 1 82 104 1 88 17 5 8 306
2028 2 88 113 1 95 19 6 8 331
2029 2 95 122 1 102 20 6 9 357
2030 2 103 131 1 110 22 7 10 386
2031 2 111 142 1 119 24 7 10 417
2032 2 120 153 1 129 26 8 11 450
2033 2 130 166 1 139 28 8 12 486
2034 3 140 179 1 150 30 9 13 525
2035 3 152 193 1 162 32 10 14 567
2036 3 164 208 1 175 35 11 15 612
2037 3 177 225 1 189 38 11 17 661
2038 3 191 243 1 204 41 12 18 714
2039 4 206 263 1 221 44 13 19 771
2040 4 223 284 1 238 47 14 21 833
2041 4 240 306 2 257 51 16 23 900
2042 5 260 331 2 278 55 17 24 972
2043 5 280 357 2 300 60 18 26 1049
Table 3-8: Forecasted Traffic, Tepi Station

Truck &
Trailer
2024 40 60 231 12 75 43 44 14 518
2025 43 65 250 13 82 46 48 15 563
2026 47 70 272 14 89 50 52 16 610
2027 51 76 295 15 96 55 57 18 662
2028 55 82 318 17 104 59 61 19 715
2029 59 89 344 18 112 64 66 21 772
2030 64 96 371 19 121 69 71 22 834
2031 69 104 401 21 131 74 77 24 901
2032 75 112 433 22 141 80 83 26 973
2033 80 121 468 24 153 86 90 28 1051
2034 87 131 505 26 165 93 97 30 1135
2035 94 141 546 28 178 101 105 33 1226
2036 101 153 589 31 192 109 113 35 1324
2037 109 165 637 33 208 118 122 38 1430
2038 118 178 688 36 224 127 132 41 1544
2039 128 192 743 39 242 137 142 45 1668
2040 138 208 802 42 262 148 154 48 1801
2041 149 224 866 45 283 160 166 52 1945
2042 161 242 935 49 305 173 179 56 2101
2043 174 261 1010 52 330 187 194 61 2269
4 Equivalent Factor and Cumulative Equivalent Single Axle
The damages that vehicles do to a road depend very strongly on the axle loads of the vehicles.
The damaging power of axles is related to a standard axle of 8.16 KN using equivalence factors,
which are derived from empirical studies.
No axle load survey was carried out as part of the present study. The values as adopted by the
traffic consultants are hereby reproduced in Table 4.1 below and used for determining the ESA.
Table 4-1: Equivalency Factors for Major Class of Vehicle
Vehicle equivalence factor

Vehicle’s category
(EF)
Small bus 0.04
Large bus 0.84

Small truck 0.46
Medium Trucks 0.88
Heavy Trucks 4.94
Articulated Trucks 17.3
The directional split is taken from Table 2.15 and lane factor of 1.0 has been adopted. The design
traffic class has been verified by first forecasting the cumulative number of equivalent standard
axles (ESA) over 20 years design periods and then by comparing the computed total ESA with
the ranges for different class as extracted below.
The design traffic class has been then determined from the Cumulative Equivalent Standard
Axles (ESA) going to use the road in the design period. The cumulative equivalent standard axle
is evaluated using the following equation.
CESA = 365* AADT* EF.* [(1+i) n+1 – 1)]
Where:
CESA : Cumulative equivalent standard axle

n : Design period
i : Growth rate
AADT : Annual average daily traffic in both directions
EF : Mean equivalence factor
Table 4-2: Traffic Classes

S.No Traffic Classes 10 6 ESA

1 T1 < 0.3
2 T2 0.3 - 0.7
3 T3 0.7 - 1.5
4 T4 1.5 - 3.0
5 T5 3.0 - 6.0
6 T6 6.0 - 10
7 T7 10 - 17
8 T8 17 - 30
9 T9 30 - 50
10 T10 50 – 80
Based on the estimated base year traffic, traffic growth, and equivalent factors, the estimated
cumulative Equivalent Standard Axle Loads have been calculated as presented below for all
stations.
Table 4-3: Cumulative ESA, Gore Station [in Thousand]

Truck &
Year S/Bus L/Bus S/Truck M/Truck H/Truck Cumulative
Trailer
ESAL
EF 0.04 0.84 0.46 0.88 4.94 17.3
2024 0.21 0.00 3.88 1.16 8.55 4.38 18.18
2025 0.43 0.00 8.10 2.42 17.82 9.14 37.91
2026 0.67 0.00 12.67 3.79 27.88 14.30 59.32
2027 0.93 0.00 17.63 5.27 38.80 19.90 82.54
2028 1.22 0.00 23.01 6.88 50.65 25.98 107.74
2029 1.53 0.00 28.83 8.62 63.44 32.54 134.96
2030 1.86 0.00 35.10 10.50 77.26 39.63 164.35
2031 2.22 0.00 41.88 12.53 92.18 47.28 196.09
2032 2.61 0.00 49.21 14.72 108.30 55.55 230.37
2033 3.03 0.00 57.11 17.08 125.70 64.47 267.40
2034 3.48 0.00 65.66 19.64 144.50 74.11 307.39
2035 3.97 0.00 74.88 22.40 164.80 84.53 350.57
2036 4.49 0.00 84.84 25.38 186.73 95.77 397.21
2037 5.06 0.00 95.60 28.59 210.41 107.92 447.59
2038 5.68 0.00 107.22 32.07 235.98 121.04 501.99
2039 6.34 0.00 119.77 35.82 263.61 135.20 560.75
2040 7.06 0.00 133.32 39.88 293.44 150.50 624.20
2041 7.84 0.00 147.96 44.26 325.65 167.03 692.73
2042 8.67 0.00 163.77 48.98 360.45 184.87 766.75
2043 9.58 0.00 180.84 54.09 398.02 204.14 846.68
Table 4-4: Cumulative ESA, Masha Station, Gore Side [in Thousand]
Truck & Cumulative
Year S/Bus L/Bus S/Truck M/Truck H/Truck
Trailer ESAL
EF 0.04 0.84 0.46 0.88 4.94 17.3
2024 0.18 0.00 1.37 0.21 0.97 1.18 3.91
2025 0.37 0.00 2.86 0.44 2.03 2.47 8.15
2026 0.57 0.00 4.47 0.69 3.17 3.86 12.76
2027 0.80 0.00 6.22 0.95 4.41 5.37 17.75
2028 1.04 0.00 8.12 1.25 5.76 7.01 23.17
2029 1.31 0.00 10.17 1.56 7.21 8.78 29.03
2030 1.59 0.00 12.38 1.90 8.78 10.69 35.35
2031 1.90 0.00 14.77 2.27 10.48 12.76 42.18
2032 2.23 0.00 17.35 2.66 12.31 14.99 49.55
2033 2.59 0.00 20.14 3.09 14.29 17.40 57.51
2034 2.98 0.00 23.15 3.55 16.43 20.00 66.11
2035 3.40 0.00 26.41 4.05 18.74 22.81 75.40
2036 3.85 0.00 29.92 4.59 21.23 25.84 85.44
2037 4.33 0.00 33.72 5.17 23.93 29.12 96.27
2038 4.86 0.00 37.81 5.80 26.83 32.66 107.97
2039 5.43 0.00 42.24 6.48 29.97 36.48 120.61
2040 6.05 0.00 47.02 7.22 33.37 40.61 134.26
2041 6.71 0.00 52.18 8.01 37.03 45.07 149.00
2042 7.43 0.00 57.76 8.86 40.99 49.88 164.92
2043 8.20 0.00 63.78 9.79 45.26 55.08 182.11
Table 4-5: Cumulative ESA, Masha Station, Tepi Side [in Thousand]
Year S/Bus L/Bus S/Truck M/Truck H/Truck Truck & Trailer Cumulative
EF 0.04 0.84 0.46 0.88 4.94 17.3 ESAL
2024 0.15 0.00 1.97 0.97 1.47 1.38 5.94
2025 0.32 0.00 4.11 2.02 3.06 2.89 12.39
2026 0.50 0.00 6.42 3.16 4.78 4.52 19.39
2027 0.70 0.00 8.94 4.40 6.66 6.28 26.98
2028 0.91 0.00 11.67 5.74 8.69 8.20 35.21
2029 1.14 0.00 14.61 7.19 10.88 10.27 44.11
2030 1.39 0.00 17.80 8.76 13.26 12.51 53.71
2031 1.66 0.00 21.23 10.45 15.82 14.93 64.09
2032 1.95 0.00 24.95 12.28 18.58 17.54 75.29
2033 2.26 0.00 28.96 14.25 21.57 20.36 87.39
2034 2.60 0.00 33.29 16.38 24.79 23.40 100.46
2035 2.97 0.00 37.96 18.68 28.27 26.69 114.57
2036 3.36 0.00 43.01 21.17 32.04 30.24 129.82
2037 3.79 0.00 48.47 23.85 36.10 34.07 146.28
2038 4.25 0.00 54.36 26.75 40.49 38.22 164.06
2039 4.74 0.00 60.72 29.88 45.23 42.69 183.26
2040 5.28 0.00 67.59 33.26 50.34 47.52 204.00
2041 5.86 0.00 75.01 36.91 55.87 52.74 226.40
2042 6.49 0.00 83.03 40.86 61.84 58.37 250.59
2043 7.16 0.00 91.69 45.12 68.29 64.46 276.71
Table 4-6: Cumulative ESA, Gecha Station, Masha Side [in Thousand]
Truck & Cumulative
Year S/Bus L/Bus S/Truck M/Truck H/Truck
Trailer ESAL
EF 0.04 0.84 0.46 0.88 4.94 17.3
2024 0.27 0.15 3.31 1.01 4.85 9.77 19.37
2025 0.57 0.32 6.90 2.11 10.11 20.38 40.38
2026 0.89 0.50 10.80 3.29 15.82 31.88 63.18
2027 1.24 0.69 15.03 4.58 22.01 44.36 87.92
2028 1.62 0.90 19.62 5.98 28.73 57.91 114.76
2029 2.03 1.13 24.57 7.49 35.99 72.54 143.75
2030 2.47 1.38 29.92 9.13 43.83 88.33 175.06
2031 2.94 1.64 35.70 10.89 52.30 105.40 208.87
2032 3.46 1.93 41.94 12.79 61.44 123.82 245.38
2033 4.01 2.24 48.68 14.85 71.31 143.72 284.82
2034 4.61 2.57 55.96 17.07 81.98 165.21 327.41
2035 5.26 2.94 63.83 19.47 93.50 188.43 373.42
2036 5.96 3.33 72.32 22.06 105.94 213.50 423.10
2037 6.72 3.75 81.49 24.86 119.37 240.57 476.75
2038 7.53 4.20 91.39 27.88 133.88 269.81 534.70
2039 8.42 4.70 102.09 31.14 149.55 301.39 597.28
2040 9.37 5.23 113.64 34.67 166.47 335.50 664.87
2041 10.40 5.80 126.12 38.47 184.75 372.33 737.87
2042 11.51 6.42 139.59 42.58 204.49 412.11 816.70
2043 12.71 7.09 154.15 47.02 225.81 455.08 901.85

Table 4-7: Cumulative ESA, Gecha Station, Tepi Side [in Thousand]
Truck &
Trailer
ESAL
EF 0.04 0.84 0.46 0.88 4.94 17.3
2024 0.56 0.06 5.38 2.05 3.50 17.76 29.31
2025 1.16 0.12 11.22 4.27 7.31 37.03 61.11
2026 1.82 0.19 17.55 6.68 11.43 57.93 95.61
2027 2.53 0.27 24.43 9.29 15.91 80.61 133.04
2028 3.30 0.35 31.88 12.13 20.76 105.23 173.66
2029 4.13 0.44 39.94 15.20 26.01 131.80 217.52
2030 5.03 0.54 48.64 18.50 31.67 160.51 264.90
2031 6.00 0.64 58.03 22.08 37.79 191.51 316.06
2032 7.05 0.76 68.17 25.94 44.40 225.00 371.32
2033 8.19 0.88 79.13 30.11 51.54 261.16 431.00
2034 9.41 1.01 90.97 34.61 59.24 300.21 495.45
2035 10.73 1.15 103.75 39.47 67.57 342.39 565.06
2036 12.16 1.30 117.55 44.72 76.56 387.94 640.24
2037 13.70 1.47 132.45 50.40 86.26 437.14 721.43
2038 15.37 1.65 148.55 56.52 96.75 490.27 809.11
2039 17.17 1.84 165.94 63.14 108.07 547.65 903.82
2040 19.11 2.05 184.72 70.28 120.30 609.63 1006.09
2041 21.21 2.27 205.00 78.00 133.51 676.56 1116.56
2042 23.48 2.52 226.90 86.33 147.78 748.85 1235.85
2043 25.92 2.78 250.56 95.33 163.18 826.91 1364.69
Table 4-8: Cumulative ESA, Tepi Station [in Thousand]

Truck &
Trailer
ESA
EF 0.04 0.84 0.46 0.88 4.94 17.3
2024 1.66 1.81 6.23 6.75 39.33 43.17 98.95
2025 3.46 3.77 12.99 14.08 82.00 90.01 206.31
2026 5.42 5.90 20.33 22.02 128.30 140.83 322.80
2027 7.54 8.21 28.28 30.65 178.53 195.97 449.18
2028 9.84 10.72 36.92 40.00 233.04 255.80 586.31
2029 12.32 13.43 46.25 50.10 291.90 320.42 734.42
2030 15.01 16.35 56.32 61.02 355.47 390.20 894.36
2031 17.90 19.51 67.19 72.80 424.13 465.57 1067.11
2032 21.03 22.92 78.94 85.53 498.28 546.96 1253.67
2033 24.41 26.60 91.63 99.28 578.37 634.87 1455.16
2034 28.06 30.58 105.33 114.12 664.86 729.81 1672.77
2035 32.01 34.88 120.13 130.16 758.27 832.35 1907.79
2036 36.27 39.52 136.11 147.47 859.15 943.09 2161.61
2037 40.87 44.53 153.37 166.18 968.10 1062.69 2435.73
2038 45.83 49.94 172.02 186.37 1085.77 1191.85 2731.79
2039 51.20 55.78 192.15 208.19 1212.86 1331.35 3051.52
2040 56.99 62.10 213.89 231.75 1350.11 1482.01 3396.84
2041 63.25 68.91 237.38 257.19 1498.34 1644.72 3769.79
2042 70.01 76.28 262.74 284.67 1658.42 1820.45 4172.56
2043 77.30 84.23 290.13 314.35 1831.32 2010.23 4607.56

5 Summary and Conclusions
The pavement design is required to be carried out by employing ERA Pavement Design
Manuals-2013. To accomplish this, the traffic class (T1 – T10) has to be defined first and this
can simply be made by comparing the computed total MESA over design period with the ranges
for different class. To aid this, the design CESA is summarized in Table 5.1. Based on this
analysis, the whole stretch can reasonably be classified no higher than T5 Class.
Table 5-1: Summary of total CESA on the project road as per the Present Study
Section Traffic Volume Counting

CESA in Thousand Traffic Class
NO point(TVC)
1 At Gore town 847 T3
2 At Masha town (Gore Side) 182 T1
3 At Masha town (Tepi Side) 277 T1
4 Gecha town (Masha Side) 902 T3
5 Gecha town (Tepi Side) 1,365 T3
6 Tepi town 4,608 T5
Overall 1,364 T3
The present study finding is not consistent with the last year. In the previous study, all stations
showed to fall in T5 category except at Tepi which skews to T6 while in present study majority
counting stations show traffic category in T1 and T3.

Table 5-2: Comparisons of Cumulative Equivalent Standard Axle, Considering the current and
previous traffic counts
Traffic Counting CESA in millions Traffic

Remark
Periods per lane Class
CESA by the As Traffic Counting by the
Pavement Design 4.7 T5 Concept design Traffic study
Report Jan 2016.
CESA by the As per ERA Traffic Counting
Supervision 4.3 T5 schedule January is with high
Consultant, Jan 2020 traffic activity Month, in Ethiopia.
CESA by the As per ERA Traffic Counting
Supervision 6.05 T6 schedule January is with high
Consultant, Jan 2021 traffic activity Month, in Ethiopia.
CESA by the
As per ERA Traffic Counting
Supervision
1.36 T3 schedule January is with high
Consultant, Jan 2022
traffic activity Month, in Ethiopia.
Therefore, based on the present study two conclusions are drawn:
 The decrease in CESA may associate with the poor condition of the road, security issue
in the area and overall economic weakening by COVID-19.
 As clearly be seen, values computed above are by far less than these at all counting
stations, but we recommend the prescribed traffic class of T5 with the present study and
found to be appropriate for the project road as per the Employer’s Requirement which the
pavement structure is required to be designed for T5 traffic class.
…/end

Annexure 1 Traffic count survey Format
Traffic Survey and Analysis Report, February 2022

Annexure 2 O-D survey Format

Annexure 3 Traffic Survey Data

GMT Traffic Study - 1 2022

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Consultancy Service for Concept Design Review &

Contract No.: S/90/ICB/RP/Ex-ImBK/2006EFY

TRAFFIC SURVEY AND ANALYSIS REPORT

Table 2-1: Historic Traffic along the Road ..................................................................................... 3

Traffic Survey and Analysis Report, February 2022 Page ii

Annexure 2: OD Survey Format

Annexure 3: Traffic Survey Data

Traffic Survey and Analysis Report, February 2022 Page iii

 Classified traffic volume count survey

1.2 Influence Area

1.2.1 Immediate Influence Area

1.2.2 Broader Influence Area

1.3 Current Status of the Road

Traffic Survey and Analysis Report, February 2022 Page 2 /30

2 Traffic Survey and Analysis

2.1 Review of Historical Traffic Data

Table 2-1: Historic Traffic along the Road

Traffic Survey and Analysis Report, February 2022 Page 3 /30

2.2 Classified Traffic Count

2.2.1 Traffic Survey Program

 to represent homogeneous traffic section

 Station 1: Outskirt of Gore Town

 Classified link counts for motorised traffic (MT) comprising 7-day.

Traffic Survey and Analysis Report, February 2022 Page 4 /30

Table 2-2: Types of Survey at Each Station

Type of Survey Duration of

1. To assess the origin

Traffic Survey and Analysis Report, February 2022 Page 5 /30

Table 2-3: Vehicle Classification

No. Vehicle Type Vehicle Description

Figure 2-1: Location of Traffic & O-D stations

Traffic Survey and Analysis Report, February 2022 Page 6 /30

2.3 Survey Methodology

 Average Daily Traffic (ADT)

2.4 Average Daily Traffic

ADT= (Σ TDTi /7) X NF

Where ADT = Average Daily Traffic

NF= Night Factor

Traffic Survey and Analysis Report, February 2022 Page 7 /30

Table 2-4: Night Factor

Table 2-5: Average Daily Traffic at Gore Station, January 2022

Traffic Survey and Analysis Report, February 2022 Page 8 /30

Traffic Survey and Analysis Report, February 2022 Page 9 /30

Table 2-10: Average Daily Traffic at Tepi Station, January 2022

Traffic Survey and Analysis Report, February 2022 Page 10 /30

Table 2-11: Directional Average Daily Traffic, January 2022

G=Gore M=Masha GE=Gecha T=Tepi

From the above tables it appears that:

Traffic Survey and Analysis Report, February 2022 Page 11 /30

2.5 Daily Traffic Variation

Table 2-12: Daily Traffic Variation, January 2022

• After considering of night factor

Traffic Survey and Analysis Report, February 2022 Page 12 /30

280 Gecha-Masha Side 600

Figure 2-2: Daily Current Traffic Variatio

2.6 Current Traffic Composition

Traffic Survey and Analysis Report, February 2022 Page 13 /30

Gore Masha-Gore Side

Masha-Tepi Side Gecha-Masha Side

Gecha-Tepi Side Tepi

Figure 2-3: Current Traffic Composition

2.7 Computation of AADT (normal traffic)

Traffic Survey and Analysis Report, February 2022 Page 14 /30